Break Glass - 2020 USA Elections

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  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    According to wiki's article on the 2016 election, Trump got 58% of the white vote.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Biden choosing Kamala Harris, as a Gen Xer . . .

    Born in 1964, Senator Harris is at the very tail end of the Baby Boom. She's kind of an "edge case", demographically speaking.
    BiB 1: Really? Maybe the US is more mixed-race than I'd thought but if not, then how was the popular vote close to 50/50 ?

    Depends on your criteria. According to the latest Census Bureau estimates the population of the U.S. is ~72% white, but it's ~60% non-Hispanic white. Under the terms of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (1848) most Hispanics count as "white", which is why the Census Bureau counts that designation as an ethnicity and not a race.
    BiB 2: Is it too late for Trump to choose someone else before the Rep Convention?

    Up until the convention Trump is allowed to pick anyone he wants.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    I don't think Pence is going to hurt the ticket among the sorts of people that the GOP is aiming for.
  • I'm wondering if Lara Trump wants him to pick *her*. She had sort of a hissy fit about Biden picking Kamala Harris.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    I don't think Pence is going to hurt the ticket among the sorts of people that the GOP is aiming for.

    The question isn't whether Mike Pence hurts the ticket, it's whether he's any help to the ticket. In 2016 the premise was that Trump needed Pence to convince white evangelicals to vote for him. By 2020 it's become increasingly clear that white evangelicals will vote for Trump no matter what, so the utility of Pence as a running mate is questionable.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Trump will not be re-elected.
    He very well might be.

    FWIW, 538's model currently gives Trump a 26-in-100, i.e., a 1-in-4, chance of winning the election. That's a decent chance—not that far off (29-in-100) of where they had him right before the 2016 election.

    To repeat what needs to be said ad nauseum until November 3:
    • A lot can happen between now and election day.
    • Confidence/over-confidence that Trump will not be re-elected can only help Trump get re-elected.
    • It's not over until it's over.
    • It's not decided until it's decided.

  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited August 2020
    Good point Croesos - who might be more help than Pence? Who does he need on his side (who isn't already) ? His campaign will be looking at the close ('swing'?) states to see which demographic or group might be given false hope to tip the balance: Latinos? Jewish Black Lesbians? Recently unemployed steel or hospitality or retail workers?

    I hope for the good of us all they don't find them.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Good point Croesos - who might be more help than Pence? Who does he need on his side (who isn't already) ?

    The name that I've seen most circulated is Nikki Haley. She's a woman, of Indian descent, and former governor of South Carolina. She was also Trump's ambassador to the U.N. for two years. Her addition to the ticket wouldn't so much be to reach out to a broader coalition as it would be to reassure Trump's borderline supporters that, by selecting Haley, he can't be as racist and sexist as he appears to be.

    The one stumbling block is that most close observers believe that Haley left her position at the U.N. because she recognized Trump was never going to be popular and she has political ambitions that she doesn't want tainted with Trump stank.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Biden choosing Kamala Harris, as a Gen Xer . . .

    Born in 1964, Senator Harris is at the very tail end of the Baby Boom. She's kind of an "edge case", demographically speaking.
    BiB 1: Really? Maybe the US is more mixed-race than I'd thought but if not, then how was the popular vote close to 50/50 ?

    Depends on your criteria. According to the latest Census Bureau estimates the population of the U.S. is ~72% white, but it's ~60% non-Hispanic white. Under the terms of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (1848) most Hispanics count as "white", which is why the Census Bureau counts that designation as an ethnicity and not a race.
    BiB 2: Is it too late for Trump to choose someone else before the Rep Convention?

    Up until the convention Trump is allowed to pick anyone he wants.

    Traditional British racism holds that white means English speakers from the British Isles. They don't even count the Dutch as white.
  • Simon Toad wrote: »
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Biden choosing Kamala Harris, as a Gen Xer . . .

    Born in 1964, Senator Harris is at the very tail end of the Baby Boom. She's kind of an "edge case", demographically speaking.
    BiB 1: Really? Maybe the US is more mixed-race than I'd thought but if not, then how was the popular vote close to 50/50 ?

    Depends on your criteria. According to the latest Census Bureau estimates the population of the U.S. is ~72% white, but it's ~60% non-Hispanic white. Under the terms of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo (1848) most Hispanics count as "white", which is why the Census Bureau counts that designation as an ethnicity and not a race.
    BiB 2: Is it too late for Trump to choose someone else before the Rep Convention?

    Up until the convention Trump is allowed to pick anyone he wants.

    Traditional British racism holds that white means English speakers from the British Isles. They don't even count the Dutch as white.

    Or speakers of Welsh, Gaelic, Doric or Norn.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    [originally posted by mistake in the Oops thread]

    The National Post(basically, a conservative opinion journal masquerading as a daily newspaper) is claiming that parts of Biden's acceptance speech were lifted from the deathbed farewell of Jack Layton, former leader of Canada's NDP.

    From my brief scan, it seemed like the alleged lift involved fairly generic phrases, and even then, Biden wasn't quoting the lines word for word.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Despite being more user-friendly than my cell phone, this office computer doesn't seem to want to co-operate in the copying of urls. The headline at the Post is "Joe Biden accused of plagiarizing from Jack Layton's final letter in nomination speech".

    Best to look for that via a search-engine, as it's not front and centre at the Post. So far, this story doesn't seem to have much traction.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    You can find the article at national post.com but it’s pretty trashy. It’s a clear attempt to continue the attack on Joe Biden as sleepy and dumb and too old.

    It was a good speech by Biden and if it owed something to some arresting words from another source, so what?
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited August 2020
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    You can find the article at national post.com but it’s pretty trashy.

    Agreed, especially after watching the speech itself about an hour ago. I mostly posted about the article to be ahead of the game in case the story picked up traction.

    As well as playing off Biden as supposedly sleepy and dumb, I think the Post was hoping the issue would get an extra bounce because of his plagiarism scandal in the 80s.


  • MarsupialMarsupial Shipmate
    edited August 2020
    The slightly embarrassing thing is the history with the Neil Pinnock speech. Doing the same thing again, when he got into trouble for it the first time around, looks a little dumb.

    That said the thought itself is not exactly an entirely original one so I suppose it's more than possible that Biden (or his speechwriter) didn't know of the source in Jack Layton's letter. I gather the basic idea isn't original to Layton either.

    [crosspost with Stetson]
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Interestingly, CTV is also covering this, minus the plagiarism angle. They quote a high-ranking NDP official as saying she was moved by the fact that Layton's words are still having an impact.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth Mystery Worship Editor
    Biden has a history of saying inappropriate things. But to plagiarize a speech? C'mon, now! I thought only people like you-know-who's paramour did that.

    Mind you, I'd vote for Jabba the Huttt if he were the Democratic nominee, but things like this make me wonder what Biden actually has for brains.
  • Nick TamenNick Tamen Shipmate
    edited August 2020
    Biden has a history of saying inappropriate things. But to plagiarize a speech? C'mon, now! I thought only people like you-know-who's paramour did that.

    Mind you, I'd vote for Jabba the Huttt if he were the Democratic nominee, but things like this make me wonder what Biden actually has for brains.
    I can’t imagine Biden actually wrote the speech. Politicians, especially those who run for President, have professional speech-writers to do that for them, so if anyone plagiarized, it was the speech writer.

    That said, I’m not at all convinced that anyone plagiarized Jack Layton’s letter, or that riffing on the same ideas could be considered plagiarism. As @Marsupial said, the ideas expressed and the way in which they are expressed can be found in a number of sources. I would point to the words of Desmond Tutu. My hunch is that various similar statements can be found painted on boarded-up windows that followed protests this summer in the U.S.

  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    From HuffPost, this is Biden:
    Let us begin you and I together, one nation under God. United in our love for America. United in our love for each other. For love is more powerful than hate, hope is more powerful than fear and light is more powerful than dark.
    And Layton said:
    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.
    What's the plagiarism part supposed to be, preferring hope to fear? Like no one ever thought of that before.
  • And Biden's Catholic. If he chose the wording, it could've been inspired by the Bible or any number of other Christian things.

    Or from the Buddhist side of the street:
    “Hatred does not cease through hatred at any time. Hatred ceases through love. This is an unalterable law.”

    I found that version at Fake Buddhist Quotes, which is sort of like Snopes for Buddhist quotes. It goes on to say:
    This quote is commonly seen on social media, and it’s a genuine scriptural quotation. It’s from verse 5 of the Dhammapada.

    The article goes on to discuss various translations and versions.

    The version I know is:
    Hatred is not ended by hatred, but only by love is healed.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited August 2020
    A script writer might have prefaced the remarks by "As many others have observed".

    I've done script writing for top management. It's the sort of thing you think about. So I'm not too critical of Joe Biden on this one. 5 additional words from a speech writer would have stopped this faux scandal at source.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth Mystery Worship Editor
    Of course he didn't write the speech. But surely he read it and approved it before delivering it. And surely his speechwriters knew enough not to embarrass him by exposing him to such a charge.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    This reminds me of a controversy from last year about whether candidates using the phrase "Medicare for all" were endorsing a specific bill by Bernie Sanders with that heading or the more general idea that the U.S. already had a single payer health care system in place (Medicare) and that it could be expanded to cover all Americans in some manner. Sometime common stock phrases are used and no one has specific ownership of them. Saying "hope is [ better / more powerful ] than fear" seems like one of those stock platitudes that commonly circulate in the vernacular English of inspiring speeches. It's no more plagiarism than an American politician ending a speech by saying "God bless the United States of America". Yes, others have used that phrase before, but no one really owns it.
  • Ok, I'm putting on notice anyone, anywhere, who looked at the US and the world, and said "Gee, what ELSE can go wrong?"

    "Oh, great: NASA says an asteroid is headed our way right before Election Day" (CNN}.

    As in Nov. 2nd.

    You never, ever ask "what else can go wrong". Somehow, it often does--whether it's a matter of thinking the problem's over, letting your guard down, and not paying attention; someone playing a prank; or whatever.

    Grrrrr.

    Good asteroid, niiiice asteroid. How about you go play over *there*? I'm sure Caroline Herschel, Carl Sagan, Copernicus, Mae Jemmison, Amy Mainzer, Hypatia, and others will be happy to go out and play with you. (Though, still being alive, Mae and Amy will have to go by spaceship or transporter!)
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    It's tiny - even if it did hit, hardly anyone would notice.
  • I think it was the New York Post that reported the Democratic party uses a $4.200 software app to check the speech for any instance of plagiarism and if found none. I have heard this phrasing in many a sermon so it is probably so generic that the app did not see anything wrong.
  • stetson wrote: »
    Interestingly, CTV is also covering this, minus the plagiarism angle. They quote a high-ranking NDP official as saying she was moved by the fact that Layton's words are still having an impact.

    Several Liberal-leading newspaper columnists accused Jack of plagiarizing the famous ending to that letter, but I wrote it off to the fact they were irked the NDP was getting so much free publicity.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    Interestingly, CTV is also covering this, minus the plagiarism angle. They quote a high-ranking NDP official as saying she was moved by the fact that Layton's words are still having an impact.

    Several Liberal-leading newspaper columnists accused Jack of plagiarizing the famous ending to that letter, but I wrote it off to the fact they were irked the NDP was getting so much free publicity.

    I think the Post(not Liberal leaning, but even less so NDP) said that the lines might have originated with Sir Wilfred Laurier? I believe Laurier was also the inspiration for Justin's much-mocked "sunny ways".

    (For non-Canadians: Laurier was a Liberal PM, French Canadian, liberal in the classical sense. Sent us into the Boer War.)
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    Plus, Liberty had previously dodged a bullet when "The Falwells and their pool boy" managed to limit its media profile to Rolling Stone magazine.

    Update: the pool boy has now hit the mainstream.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited August 2020
    As has MaryAnne Trump Barry, recorded as summarising her brother as a cruel, phony liar.

    But let’s face it. None of these scandals have done much to disillusion his loyal base. I don’t expect this one to change that track record.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited August 2020
    Today (August 24) is the first day of the Republican National Convention (official website). I'd give a truncated schedule like I did for the Democrats but there's nothing listed on the website. If you want to know what's going on you have to resort to Google and various news sites. At least the official website tells you how to watch the events from Charlotte, NC Jacksonville, FL Charlotte, NC wherever. Trump himself will be speaking all four nights and the schedule is heavy with people related to him, either by blood or marriage. He'll also be using the White House for this partisan political purpose. Remember when people got upset that Clinton campaign donors got to sleep over at the White House? Ah, simpler times.
  • The RNC started while I was listening to NPR. I now have it on ABC tv. You know who has just been nominated again.

    His followers chanted "4 more years". He took the podium, and said they should wish him 12 ! (I wish I thought he was completely joking--and yes, I know this isn't the first time he's said something like that.)

    He's standing there, spouting so much crap. Gaaaa.
    :angry:
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Golden Key wrote: »
    His followers chanted "4 more years". He took the podium, and said they should wish him 12 ! (I wish I thought he was completely joking--and yes, I know this isn't the first time he's said something like that.)

    This is known as "kidding on the square".
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    There was some earlier controversy about the Republican 2020 platform. The uncertainty surrounding the convention and the desire to not have large gatherings initially inclined them to simply re-adopting the 2016 platform. This was problematic in a lot of ways. First, there's a lot going on now that wasn't four years ago and the omission would be glaring. Second, the 2016 platform had a lot of criticism of "the current President" (meaning Barack Obama) which wouldn't really fit with the attempt to re-elect Trump.

    So what to do? What they eventually came out with is a one page document declaring their loyalty to Dear Leader [PDF] and that they're okay with whatever he does. That's what the Republican Party stands for in 2020, loyalty to Donald Trump. Nothing more and nothing less. If you think I'm kidding, click over and read for yourself. The key bit is the first resolution:
    RESOLVED, That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda;

    The other three resolutions are that they're not going to be adopting a platform, that any attempt to adopt a platform will be ruled "out of order", and that the media should be nice to them.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    For the record, the Democrats were able to put together a 2020 platform [PDF] despite not physically convening.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    One of the slogans used by the Trump 2020 campaign is "Keep America Great", an obvious riff on 2016's "Make American Great Again". Unfortunately no one in the Trump 2020 campaign bothered to secure the website, so the Biden campaign did. You can see the result here.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth Mystery Worship Editor
    Oh, that's absolutely precious! I hope whoever did it puts a password on it so it can't be taken down or put back to what it was.
  • Would a "wag the dog" incident help trump? A false threat from outside his country and a war was the premise of a movie with this name. Though also wonder if a staged terror attack is beneath the incumbent. Perhaps he's a better person than this?
  • NP--

    Given his various brands and depths of brokenness, I don't think it's a question of being a better person. IMHO, he usually can't function in a way that even considers how to be good/better.

    The question is: how far would he go to get/keep the approval he's been looking for all his life?

    I worry about that.

    And I really, really, really hope the person carrying the "nuclear football" (attache case with the nuclear codes, which is hand-cuffed to the wearer) hides out somewhere...

    :votive:
  • Looks like the main campaign is going to center around

    Law and Order vs Justice. I am on the justice side.
  • Biden is already starting to slip in the polls. I think MIchael Moore has a point that he should ignore absolutely no swing state.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Looks like the main campaign is going to center around

    Law and Order vs Justice. I am on the justice side.
    Given that most people who have never fallen afoul of the legal system and faced any any injustice by that system, I'm not sure that this is a winner.
    The key is still going to be getting the people who do not generally vote to the polls.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth Mystery Worship Editor
    They say that a Democrat is a Republican who's been arrested, and that a Republican is a Democrat who's been mugged.

    I'm afraid the protestors are digging the Democrats' graves. The longer the protests go on, the more damage that will be done. Innocent people are dying already -- and it's not just the black men who the cops are shooting.
  • lilbuddha wrote: »
    Biden is already starting to slip in the polls. I think MIchael Moore has a point that he should ignore absolutely no swing state.

    In 2016 Hillary disastrously though that she could just coast into The White House ...
  • I well remember in 2016, people were talking about flipping Texas. Surely they won't do that again. Surely they have crafted an election campaign to appeal to the swing states. Surely. I mean, isn't that why so many Republicans are endorsing Biden, and why the party went for the centre rather than the left?
  • Mark Twain: "I don't belong to an organized political party. I'm a Democrat."
  • Golden Key wrote: »

    "I don't belong to an organized political party. I'm a Democrat."

    SOOO many Dems were unhappy with the Hillary choice in 2016, so they just skipped voting ...

    In 2020 there are apparently reportedly a number of "Trump 'Democrats'" who will vote *red* ... *sigh* ...

  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    SOOO many Dems were unhappy with the Hillary choice in 2016, so they just skipped voting ...

    Or cast purity wank votes a third party ballot. Third party or write-in votes for president made up 5.73% of the 2016 electorate. In 2012 it was 1.73%. Apparently when presented with a choice between moderate liberalism and early stage fascism an electorally significant number of American voters go ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
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