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Break Glass - 2020 USA Elections

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Comments

  • I want the Dems to be able to implement their agenda. And I want BLOOD.
  • Be careful what you wish for @Simon Toad . Blood is pretty much the opposite of what I want.
  • Me and the missus are resolutely not talking about Biden winning, just some old fashioned superstition. Damn, I just did it, but I had my fingers crossed.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    It’s an old chess guideline, quetz. With the win in sight, sit on the hands. No rash thoughts. No rash moves.
  • Be careful what you wish for @Simon Toad . Blood is pretty much the opposite of what I want.

    Yes you're right TT. I want the Trump Administration thoroughly investigated.
  • ST--

    No offense; but if you want blood, please go play World of Warcraft, and leave Americans be.

    Thx.
  • edited October 22
    Iran meddling in your election? Not nice. But the trump withdrawal from the agreement is worse? Fair? This was expressed in comment.

    Russia meddling was also explained as that country has limited alternative as the USA and NATO sucks up countries on its borders.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Iran meddling in your election? Not nice. But the trump withdrawal from the agreement is worse? Fair? This was expressed in comment.

    Russia meddling was also explained as that country has limited alternative as the USA and NATO sucks up countries on its borders.

    From CBS:
    Top intelligence officials announced Wednesday evening that Iran and Russia have taken actions to try to compromise the U.S. election and have obtained some voter registration data.

    Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe told reporters at a last-minute announcement that Iran had sent spoof emails "designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest, and damage President Trump." He suggested that there had been reporting on these emails "within the last 24 hours."

    On Tuesday, CBS News reported that dozens of voters in a heavily Democratic county in Florida and across several states reported receiving emails that purportedly came from a right-wing group that threatened to "come after" them unless they voted for President Trump.

    Part of the problem here is that John Ratcliffe is a political hack with no credibility and is completely unqualified to be DNI. The publicly known information, such as the use of servers in Saudi Arabia, Estonia, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates to distribute those emails is consistent with Iranian practice. It's also consistent with Saudi and Emirati intelligence operations to damage Iranian reputation (which is what a lot of Saudi and Emirati intelligence operations are geared towards these days). We don't know what non-public information was used to reach Ratcliffe's assessment, so a lot hinges on Ratcliffe's credibility as an honest messenger, something he's never really been.

    For those who are interested, here's what those emails said:
    We are in possession of all your information (email, address, telephone, … everything). You are currently registered as a Democrat and we know this because we have gained access into the entire voting infrastructure. You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you. Change your party affiliation to Republican to let us know you received our message and will comply. We will know which candidate you voted for. I would take this seriously if I were you.

    A straightforward reading of this would assume it's an attempt to suppress the votes of pro-Biden voters, not something "designed to . . . damage President Trump", as DNI Ratcliffe characterized it. That's why Ratcliffe's history as a partisan hack is so destructive to his ability to do his job as DNI; the reasonable assumption that anything he says has a certain amount of spin on it.

    So, is it possible Iran is behind this? Certainly. Is it also possible that some other foreign power (or alliance of foreign powers) is behind this? Based on what is known publicly (and a lot of the intel on this is still secret), that's also definitely possible.

    So . . . ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ???
  • There isn't exactly a hot war with Iran, but the USA did assassinate/murder an Iranian general and several other people in January 2020. Wikipedia summary. Plus the trump gov't withdrew for no good reason anyone else can discern from the agreement on Iran and nuclear "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action".

    So if we're looking at the fairness of things.....
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    That email is consistent with the Russian aim of divide and disrupt. In that strategy it really isn’t important to settle on who benefits. The point is that the action is intended to sow distrust and division.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    That "Proud Boys" e-mail sounds like a supervillain explaining his evil plan in a 90s action movie.
  • Golden Key wrote: »
    ST--

    No offense; but if you want blood, please go play World of Warcraft, and leave Americans be.

    Thx.

    Yes. It was a bad thing to write and I apologise to you and @TurquoiseTastic . I should have said what I meant, which was an investigation of the Trump Administration resulting in the imprisonment of many of its members.

    I wrote it with vengeance on my mind, and using an aggressive metaphor for political destruction that I have used for many years. There is a saying: Politics is a blood sport.

    I know that this is entirely inappropriate to the American political environment right now, as blood can't be ruled out. Indeed, blood has already been spilt. How I wish that people could just shrug and go past that metaphor now, because that would mean that political violence was just not in the public consciousness.

    It might be a good subject for Purg to explore the competitive and aggressive aspects of politics and whether it has any up-side at all. It is very much a part of Australian politics, and has resulted in the ending of a couple of political careers recently. I think it is a topic for after the election, especially if Trump loses, as a retrospective... I am certainly suited temperamentally to the aggressive mode of politics, if you put to one side my inability to handle stress or live with personal moral conflict.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    That email is consistent with the Russian aim of divide and disrupt. In that strategy it really isn’t important to settle on who benefits. The point is that the action is intended to sow distrust and division.

    Most news outlets think the Proud Boys email was planted by Iran.
  • edited October 23
    .
  • Simon Toad--

    Thanks. :) It might bother me less if there hadn't been actual blood in actual streets the last several months; if Trumpian thugs weren't planning on "protecting" voting places with guns; if Charlottesville hadn't happened; and any number of other things.

    I may consider hiding under my bed on election day--or at least making a blanket fort.
    ;) (but I'm only half joking.)
  • Hmm, have you thought about binge-watching a favorite TV show or movie? I would go for a Jane Austen marathon myself, but my wife is a huge fan of Babette's Feast. Its such a slow, calming and ultimately joyous film (if I remember it correctly it becomes more and more an expression of joy as the film progresses).
  • Indeed. Babette's Feast could be viewed as an epicurean (in the vulgar sense) orgy, but I view it as grace arriving in unlikely guise, joy and redemption in beauty, reconciliation at the table. It recalls, a bit, Blake's The Little Vagabond. I could go on, but, yes, Simon, a very good choice for these times.
  • Hmmm...hell must be on the way to freezing over. Dibs on the ice skates and hot drink concessions!

    This is a two-parter:


    "Several Pence Aides, Including Chief Of Staff Marc Short, Test Positive For COVID-19. At least five people close to the vice president have reportedly tested positive in recent days." (HuffPost)


    Pence is still out and about, and is scheduled to preside over the Senate's vote on Amy Coney Barrett on Monday.

    To which context a very conservative magazine has responded:

    "The Barrett Vote: There’s Not a Good Reason for Pence to Preside Over It" (National Review).
    After being exposed to a COVID-infected staffer, why would the vice president sit in a windowless room with elderly senators on Monday night?

    Granted, this is out of concern over Pence possibly being infected and spreading the virus. But, considering what's at stake from their point of view, *wow*. Well done.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited October 26
    It's a self-damaging decision and it shows all too clearly the baleful influence of both Trump's profoundly illogical decision making and expectations of obedience from others. Another last week gift to Democratic speakers. Another stupid decision for GOP speakers to rationalise.

    Polls. 538 shows a stable position following the final debate. Biden 88% likely to win, forecast to get 345 EC votes, and win the popular vote by 8%. Trump's only likely path to victory requires him to hold all states which are marginal in his favour and also win North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Biden can win in lots of ways.

    The lawyers will come in if Trump gets North Carolina, Florida and Arizona, but loses Pennsylvania. Then the question for example of whether mailed in ballots require confirmation of signature will probably end up in the Supreme Court. Sorting that out would take for ever if the Supreme Court judged it to be necessary. And that could be swung by Amy Barrett. Which could lead to alternative methods of selecting State EC members which could favour Trump.

    God help the USA if that scenario or anything like it emerges.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited October 26
    Golden Key wrote: »
    To which context a very conservative magazine has responded:

    "The Barrett Vote: There’s Not a Good Reason for Pence to Preside Over It" (National Review).
    After being exposed to a COVID-infected staffer, why would the vice president sit in a windowless room with elderly senators on Monday night?

    This bit of analysis seems a bit simplistic.
    Presiding over the vote obviously would make the vice president feel good, and the photo of the moment could come in handy in 2024, but Pence’s presence is not necessary. There are 52 senators who intend to vote for Barrett and 48 senators who intend to vote against Barrett. It would take the absences of four Republican senators who support Barrett to make a tie-breaking vote by Pence necessary.

    Other scenarios are possible. Romney or some other Republican Senator wanting to burnish their "maverick" cred jumps ship, causing Murkowski to flip back to "no", for example. Not likely, but Pence's presence would make such a maneuver futile so he's there as much as a deterrent as a tie-breaker. The fact that he's there shows the Republicans aren't as confident in their whip count as they let on, which has been a persistent problem throughout McConnell's tenure as majority leader. He was much better keeping them in line for simple "no" votes when Republicans were in the minority.

    Pence has announced that he's tested negative, but that's pretty meaningless this close after exposure.
    Golden Key wrote: »
    Granted, this is out of concern over Pence possibly being infected and spreading the virus. But, considering what's at stake from their point of view, *wow*. Well done.

    National Review has always been a bit iffy on their support of Trump, going so far as to put out their "Against Trump" issue in February 2016. Naturally there's been some backtracking since then.
  • Suffolk RobSuffolk Rob Shipmate Posts: 39
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    I want the Dems to be able to implement their agenda. And I want BLOOD.

    Democrats Fulfilling their agenda will be enough for me. Enough to do with that. In the event of Trump losing, best thing will be to ignore him.
    He would REALLY hate that.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    If anyone on the Ship lives in Louisiana or Pennsylvania and is intending on taking advantage of early voting, this is a reminder that tomorrow (27 October 2020) is the last day for doing so. Election Day voting (3 November 2020) will still be available to you, of course, if you don't vote early.
  • Yeah, that was such a bad post by me. aargh!
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Yeah, that was such a bad post by me. aargh!

    Probably one that would have been best avoided in the context, but don't beat yourself up over it. The expression is pretty common, and generally considered innocuous, so it's easy enough to use it without thinking about it's literal meaning.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    We are exactly one week from Election Day, although 69.5 million Americans have already cast an early ballot of some sort. (For reference, this is about half of all ballots, early and on Election Day, cast in 2016.) According to 538 Joe Biden has a national aggregate polling advantage of 9.4 pp over Donald Trump. For reference, at this point in the 2016 election (1 November 2016) Hillary Clinton had a national aggregate polling advantage of 3.9 pp over Donald Trump.

    One of the disadvantages of polling data is that they are backward-looking. Polls are collected over several days, then a day or two is spent analyzing the responses, so by the time they're released they show you what the polled group believed in certain window of time a few days ago. This was a big flaw in 2016 when numerous events reshaped public opinion, but seems like less of a factor this time around. Joe Biden has consistently led Donald Trump by 7-10 percentage points since early June, occasionally dipping down to six-point-something or rising to ten-point-something but for the most part staying within that seven-to-ten percentage point range. Given all that's happened in 2020 that stability seems pretty remarkable.

    So since we're a week away, who wants to make electoral college predictions? I'll go first. My prediction is Biden 341, Trump 197.
  • Not a stats person, so my only (prayerful, desperate, hopeful) prediction is that Biden will win at the electoral college level. And at the popular level.

    Whether the electoral college will actually meet, given all the nasty possibilities between now and then, may be an entirely different manner.

    I, however, have done my bit: I mailed my mail-in ballot yesterday, and I've already been notified by the ballot-tracking software that it's been received!
    :joy: :dance
  • NicoleMRNicoleMR Shipmate
    No guesses, just hopes and prayers for a Biden landslide.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth 8th Day Host, Mystery Worship Editor
    I pray that Biden takes every state.

    At suppertime tonight there was an airplane pulling a banner through the sky: [you-know-who] [toady]. Talk about indigestion.
  • jedijudyjedijudy Heaven Host, 8th Day Host
    I'm just worried that Election Day will see a lot of Republicans going out to vote in person...like my sister and brother-in-law. (For those who have been reading Aging Parents, yes. That sister.)

    Sister and b-i-l are going to be here to visit Mom and Dad and b-i-l's Mom for two whole days with the excuse of needing to be home to vote. Rolling my eyes, because I am hearing this from quite a few Republicans. They want to vote on the day of.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited October 29
    Prediction? Biden will win in the Electoral College by about 60 votes and Trump’s lawyers will seek a general ruling of the cut off point for mail-in votes, hoping to invalidate some of those counted legitimately under the laws of some States. Hoping to get a recount which will make a difference. The Supreme Court will reject the appeal on the grounds that States are responsible for the conduct of the count under existing State laws.

    Oh and by the way I hope Croesos is about right!
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    Prediction? Biden will win in the Electoral College by about 60 votes and Trump’s lawyers will seek a general ruling of the cut off point for mail-in votes, hoping to invalidate some of those counted legitimately under the laws of some States. Hoping to get a recount which will make a difference. The Supreme Court will reject the appeal on the grounds that States are responsible for the conduct of the count under existing State laws.

    But in some cases, isn't it the state itself that wants to invalidate votes(presumably Republican-run states where the mail-ins are assumed to be mostly Democratic)? In that situation, the Court, following a states-rights approach, would just say to the states "Have at 'er!"

  • I wouldn't count on the Supremes being wise and sensible about the election. They sure weren't for Bush v. Gore. Grrrr. And RBG is no longer there* to write another blunt dissent.
    The late Ginsburg criticized the majority in her separate opinion for abandoning its usual federalism and deference to state courts on state law. "Rarely has this Court rejected outright an interpretation of state law by a state high court," she said. As she closed her opinion, she highlighted the stakes for the country: "In sum, the Court's conclusion that a constitutionally adequate recount is impractical is a prophecy the Court's own judgment will not allow to be tested. Such an untested prophecy should not decide the Presidency of the United States."

    (Per CNN.)

    *I've been hoping she's hanging around, in some way, to nudge her colleagues in a good direction, before getting settled in her new life.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    If any Shipmates live in Tennessee and are intending on taking advantage of early voting, this is a reminder that tomorrow (29 October 2020) is the last day for doing so. Election Day voting (3 November 2020) will still be available to you, of course, if you don't vote early.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    I think decisions so far have confirmed the State law status quo. Maybe I’m wrong? If State law already says we can only count them if we have them by 3 November then that stands. If State law already says we count them if they have a 3 November post date then that stands. Reasoning is that voters’ actions must be legitimate if based on existing rules. Their votes should neither be counted nor excluded by a late change. That would be action with a retrospective effect.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited October 28
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    I think decisions so far have confirmed the State law status quo. Maybe I’m wrong? If State law already says we can only count them if we have them by 3 November then that stands. If State law already says we count them if they have a 3 November post date then that stands. Reasoning is that voters’ actions must be legitimate if based on existing rules. Their votes should neither be counted nor excluded by a late change. That would be action with a retrospective effect.

    That's generally true, but occasionally courts have made changes due to extraordinary circumstances. For example, if a localized power failure shuts down a polling station for two hours on Election Day a court may extend voting hours there by two hours so that local voters aren't disenfranchised by having fewer hours to vote than their neighbors in surrounding precincts. The big question is whether the pandemic, inadequately staffed county clerk's offices, and slower than usual mail service count as an extraordinary circumstance.

    Brett Kavanaugh argues that it does not. Full opinion here [PDF], including Kagan's masterful dissent.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited October 28
    Thanks Croesos. That’s what I would have hoped. Exceptional measures in exceptional circumstances do not set long term precedents. The link was very interesting!
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Paddy Power is offering 4/9 for Biden, 7/4 for Trump. Both figures have moved a little. They remain in contrast with the pollsters odds, summarised by 538 as showing an 88% chance of a Biden win.

    It looks like the rust States will determine the EC outcome. Current polls show all those that flipped for Trump in 2016 are flipping back. At this time in 2016 they were also trending for Clinton but not by as much. It’s not yet time for Democrats to put out the flags but there is no sign of a late narrowing of the polls. My gut feel is that Trump’s Coronavirus “rounding the turn” pitch is playing badly in the rust States, which are having a bad time with the virus. The White House claim yesterday of Trump’s successes included one headed Ending the Virus. Even loyalists must have found that hard to swallow.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    @Barnabas62

    Barnabas, can you explain Paddy Power's numbers in the first paragraph of your last post? Put simply, do they predict goof things for Trump, or for Biden?

    (Sorry, but I don't know bookmaking terminology; never got much into gambling beyond lottery tickets.)
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Sure. 4/9 Biden means if you bet 9 and Biden wins you get 4 plus your stake money. 7/4 Trump means if you bet 4 and Trump wins you get 7 plus your stake money. So Biden is an odds on favourite but the bookies’ odds see it as a closer race than the polls.

    Croesos argued earlier that the bookies are factoring in Trump’s chances of successful manipulation of the results by using the Supreme Court. He called that cheating! He has a point.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    Paddy Power is offering 4/9 for Biden, 7/4 for Trump. Both figures have moved a little. They remain in contrast with the pollsters odds, summarised by 538 as showing an 88% chance of a Biden win.

    The odds they offer will also take into account their financial position.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    True. Which suggests a fair bit of money has gone on Trump despite the pollsters. Probably gambling a 2016 repeat of Trump doing better in the battleground States than the polls were saying. Plus the cheat factor.

    But more money will have gone on Biden which is why he’s odds on.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    If any Shipmates live in Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, Texas, or Utah and are intending on taking advantage of early voting, this is a reminder that tomorrow (30 October 2020) is the last day for doing so. Election Day voting (3 November 2020) will still be available to you, of course, if you don't vote early.

    Today (29 October 2020) is the last day for early voting in Tennessee.
  • Golden KeyGolden Key Shipmate
    edited October 29
    Croesos (or anyone)--

    Any reason given for not allowing early voting right up through Nov. 2?

    Here in San Francisco, we have 29 days of early voting, right through Nov. 2. The "Voting Center Location, Hours, And Wait Times" section says this:
    To protect the health of voters wishing to obtain in-person voting services during the 29-day early voting period, the Voting Center will be set up in the area outside of Bill Graham Civic Auditorium on 99 Grove Street, between Polk and Larkin streets.

    The Voting Center will be open during the 29-day early voting period during these times:

    Every weekday, October 5-November 2, from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. *
    Three weekends, October 17-18, October 24-25 and October 31-November 1, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.
    Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. (same voting hours as polling places).

    *The Voting Center will be closed on Monday, October 12 in observation of Indigenous Peoples' Day.To make their voting experience faster and safer, voters can use the Voting Locations and Wait Times Tool to check wait times at the Voting Center as they are planning their trip.

    With early voting opportunities available 29 days before Election Day, we encourage you to vote as early as possible. If you vote early in person or by mail, you will avoid possible wait times and crowded public spaces, and your ballot will be reviewed and counted well before Election Day.

    ETA: Neighborhood polling places will be open on Nov. 3.

    On a state level:
    One or more early voting locations will be available in all counties for at least four days beginning the Saturday before the November 3, 2020, election. Voting locations will offer voter registration, replacement ballots, accessible voting machines, and language assistance.

    Thx.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    In a revision of my earlier post tomorrow (30 October 2020) is also the last day for early voting in some parts of Wisconsin. Some parts of Wisconsin have no early voting hours on weekends, so Wisconsin Shipmates who wish to vote early should consult their local election officials. As always, if you don't vote early voting on Election Day (3 November 2020) is always an option.
    Golden Key wrote: »
    Croesos (or anyone)--

    Any reason given for not allowing early voting right up through Nov. 2?

    As with most American institutions it's a decision made at a state level. I'm sure different states have different justifications for when early voting ends. My guess is that some of them wanted a time cushion to make sure all early ballots are collected by the appropriate state authorities before the big rush on Election Day.

    Some states don't allow any kind of early in-person voting, though all states have some sort of voting by mail available.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    If any Shipmates or lurkers live in North Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Virginia, or West Virginia and are intending on taking advantage of early voting, this is a reminder that tomorrow (31 October 2020) is the last day for doing so. Election Day voting (3 November 2020) will still be available to you, of course, if you don't vote early.

    Today (30 October 2020) is the last day for early voting in Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, Texas, and Utah, plus parts of Wisconsin. (Wisconsinite Shipmates/lurkers who wish to cast their ballots before Election Day should check with their local election officials about whether your jurisdiction has early voting on the weekend.)
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    So by what logic is Nigel Farage the King Of Europe? Isn't that kinda like calling Mohandas Gandhi the King Of England?
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    If any Shipmates or lurkers live in North Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Virginia, or West Virginia and are intending on taking advantage of early voting, this is a reminder that tomorrow (31 October 2020) is the last day for doing so. Election Day voting (3 November 2020) will still be available to you, of course, if you don't vote early.
    And in North Carolina, early voting ends at 3:00 pm tomorrow, which is an earlier time than all other days of early voting.

  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Just saw on CBC that Bobby Orr has endorsed Trump.

    I'm guessing this is a bigger story in Canada than in the country that's actually holding the election.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited October 30
    I'm seeing a worrying number of "Is Biden corrupt?" stories suddenly sprouting in the media. There's still almost a week to go, enough time to sway the kind of voters who are absolutely determined to see some sort of equivalency between the two candidates.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Of course there will be dirty pool. Par for the course for this shameless and reckless campaign of lies.
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