The UK Prime Minister

alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
edited July 27 in Purgatory
Mrs May is set to announce her 'departure timetable' today. Whatever that means. Assuming Chris Grayling can't be in charge of delivering said timetable, that means that the UK will get a new Prime Minister soon.

For those who don't know, the UK Prime Minister is whoever can command majority support in the House of Commons. When a party has an overall majority, this is straightforwardly the leader of that party hence the smooth transitions from Thatcher to Major and Blair to Brown in recent times. Quite what happens when there is no majority and no coalition is an open question.

There are at least two possibilities: it could be that a new Conservative leader takes over and with DUP support, the Tories will continue in power. There could be a general election soon if the DUP decide not to continue their support.

The internal Conservative leader election process involves a series of run-off elections in the Parliamentary Party until there are only two candidates left and then the vote goes to the membership. It is worth noting at this point that the ~60,000* membership is both more right-wing and more Euro-skeptic than the parliamentary party. Notwithstanding the considerations above, it is quite likely that this 0.13% of the electorate will be choosing our next Prime Minister...

So, who's it going to be?

AFZ

*The exact membership of the Conservative Party is unknown as the party has refused to publish the figures for several years. It is known to be less than 100,000 and ~60,000 is the best recent estimate I know of. There are rumors that the membership numbers have fallen further in the last weeks.
«13456729

Comments

  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    I gather Boris, God help us, is the favourite amongst the membership (who are these people?!?), while he's less popular amongst the parliamentary party.

    So to avoid Boris, two people need to beat him in the MPs' selection process, because if he goes forward to the membership he's home and dry.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    edited May 24
    What other choices are there? I can’t see one man/woman who is up to the job. Especially not Boris.

    Is it a poisoned chalice anyway?
  • Martin54Martin54 Shipmate
    It's Johnson. And an instant 'pull the plaster off' no-deal Brexit then general election so he's in for the full eight years over the next recession. Only the poor the pay. And we'll be truly flooded with our new trading partner migrants. Americans mainly?!
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    Martin54 wrote: »
    It's Johnson. And an instant 'pull the plaster off' no-deal Brexit then general election so he's in for the full eight years over the next recession.

    Please no. :confounded: :cry: :cold_sweat:

  • SusanDorisSusanDoris Shipmate
    KarlLB wrote: »
    I gather Boris, God help us, is the favourite amongst the membership (who are these people?!?), while he's less popular amongst the parliamentary party.

    So to avoid Boris, two people need to beat him in the MPs' selection process, because if he goes forward to the membership he's home and dry.
    Most decidedly not as far as I'm concerned!! I'll have a vote, and I hope there will be one of the two on offer whose views I feel I can support.

  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Can the present parlianentary Tory party muster two Tory MPs who would make better leaders than Johnson?

    Obviously two short planks would make a better leader than Johnson, but the present Tory party has a short plank shortage.
  • SusanDorisSusanDoris Shipmate
    Dafyd wrote: »
    Can the present parlianentary Tory party muster two Tory MPs who would make better leaders than Johnson?

    Obviously two short planks would make a better leader than Johnson, but the present Tory party has a short plank shortage.
    Agreed! Did you hear Ken Clark on 'Today' just after 8:0? I'd vote for him, if he could be persuaded to stand! But, as he acknowledged, he doesn't have answers.
  • ClimacusClimacus Shipmate
    SusanDoris wrote: »
    Most decidedly not [Boris] as far as I'm concerned!! I'll have a vote, and I hope there will be one of the two on offer whose views I feel I can support.
    Thought of standing yourself, Susan? I daresay you'd do a better job than most (all?) in the running.

    Best wishes, Team UK.

    Sorry if this is a tangent, but how do you feel about her going in the middle of this?

    Yours,
    Astounded from the Colonies.
  • ClimacusClimacus Shipmate
    Me wrote: »
    Sorry if this is a tangent, but how do you feel about her going in the middle of this?
    Sorry...forgot about the Hell thread. I think I get the general feeling...

  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    7th June, apparently.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    The Financial Times posits these seven as the most likely successors:

    Boris Johnson
    Michael Gove
    Sajid Javid
    Jeremy Hunt
    Dominic Raab
    Amber Rudd
    Matt Hancock


    AFZ
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    A Guardian pundit said “Choosing from this gallery of rogues, fanatics and non-entities is like playing the children’s game: would you rather be burnt at the stake, hanged drawn and quartered or squashed by a steamroller?”

    Too true 😢
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Boogie wrote: »
    A Guardian pundit said “Choosing from this gallery of rogues, fanatics and non-entities is like playing the children’s game: would you rather be burnt at the stake, hanged drawn and quartered or squashed by a steamroller?”

    Too true 😢

    Indeed.

    At some point in this thread, I suspect I will be explaining why Jeremy Hunt is totally unsuited to this role. What's stopping me, is damning though I believe this analysis to be, it does not make him necessarily worse than the competition...

    AFZ
  • RicardusRicardus Shipmate
    KarlLB wrote: »
    I gather Boris, God help us, is the favourite amongst the membership (who are these people?!?), while he's less popular amongst the parliamentary party.

    So to avoid Boris, two people need to beat him in the MPs' selection process, because if he goes forward to the membership he's home and dry.

    Until recently I thought the parliamentary party would try to keep him out. But the other day I read an article suggesting that moderate Tories are more scared of Raab than of Johnson. Johnson will vary his views to suit his company, and is quite capable of going full-on hard Brexit for the membership and pivoting to something softer when he depends on his MPs' cooperation - whereas Raab is hard Brexit all the way.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, Epiphanies Host
    The ERG has been playing for this moment. It's hard to see how Johnson can be avoided, given the composition of the Tory faithful. And the probable EU election results. Johnson in No 10 and Trump in the WH looks like a perfect orange storm. Well, I suppose we could all head off for a holiday with Eutychus - and forget to return .....
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    Boogie wrote: »
    A Guardian pundit said “Choosing from this gallery of rogues, fanatics and non-entities is like playing the children’s game: would you rather be burnt at the stake, hanged drawn and quartered or squashed by a steamroller?”

    Too true 😢

    Were they to go for Boris, they would get all 3 in one fell swoop - a rogue, a fanatic and when all is said and done, a real non-entity. He'd make May look good.
  • My money's on Hunt to beat Rudd in the final vote. Tory MPs to stab Johnson in the back during their part of the process.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    My money's on Hunt to beat Rudd in the final vote. Tory MPs to stab Johnson in the back during their part of the process.

    We should have a Ship sweepstake :smile:

  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    Yes, I think back-stabbing is on the cards. Is this a dagger that I see before me? ... Come, let me clutch thee.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    My money's on Hunt to beat Rudd in the final vote. Tory MPs to stab Johnson in the back during their part of the process.

    I refer the honourable Martian the comments I made some moments ago...

  • Indeed.
  • By all means let BoJo the Clown become PM.

    Then, send him on a 'diplomatic' trip to Russia, where he will surely make some rude remark about Uncle Vlad, or the terrifying Maria Zakharova.

    He will, hopefully, then promptly be consigned to a special camp in Siberia, where they teach people about Proper Haircuts, and will never be seen in Ukland again.

    Time for my pills, I think.....

  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Just where the Russians want the UK, a government in chaos. Conspiracy theory? No, they were very much behind the Brexit vote, and they are funding your ultra-right party.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    The Standard gave 11 possibles with Bojo top. Ledson and Rudd are seen as possibles too. I hope the DUP do not support the Tories and we get an election. Please
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    An election seems unlikely to me. Surely, the Tories seriously underestimated Corbyn last time. I suppose they might be driven to it if the parliamentary deadlock continues, and/or the polls look good. And there might be a Boris bounce. I'd move to Ireland, but the homesickness kills me.
  • Here is the real truth: http://tiny.cc/10g86y
  • SipechSipech Shipmate
    While I have yet to envisage any situation that would lead me to support any Conservative, the one name that is slightly more palatable than most is Rory Stewart. He has a smidgen of credibility and half a pint of competence, which is a hell of a lot more than most Tory MPs.
  • O what a dire and dreary situation our poor country is in.
    :weary:

    The thought of Bojo the Clown, or Niggle the Garbage, being in charge is enough to make one wish for Everlasting Oblivion.

    Come over from Macedonia (or wherever) and help us!
  • Sipech wrote: »
    While I have yet to envisage any situation that would lead me to support any Conservative, the one name that is slightly more palatable than most is Rory Stewart. He has a smidgen of credibility and half a pint of competence, which is a hell of a lot more than most Tory MPs.

    Agreed.
  • Ricardus wrote: »
    KarlLB wrote: »
    I gather Boris, God help us, is the favourite amongst the membership (who are these people?!?), while he's less popular amongst the parliamentary party.

    So to avoid Boris, two people need to beat him in the MPs' selection process, because if he goes forward to the membership he's home and dry.

    Until recently I thought the parliamentary party would try to keep him out. But the other day I read an article suggesting that moderate Tories are more scared of Raab than of Johnson. Johnson will vary his views to suit his company, and is quite capable of going full-on hard Brexit for the membership and pivoting to something softer when he depends on his MPs' cooperation - whereas Raab is hard Brexit all the way.

    Huh. Do you recall "Trump wouldn't be as bad as Cruz, he'd definitely pivot after the primaries..."

    I cannot see anyone other than Boris being the next Conservative leader.... and hence Prime Minister, I guess... although hopefully not for too long...


  • Here is the real truth: http://tiny.cc/10g86y

    Is this the first time in recent history that a sitting Prime Minister has announced their resignation ahead of time? This seems to leave May as a positively paralytic, let alone lame duck for the next ten days or so.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    I've just had a wicked thought and this is exactly what I would try in Corbyn's position.

    Let's assume Boris is one of the final 2... at that point, the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition should table a Vote of No Confidence. Having in the meantime persuaded the DUP not to vote with the government...

    Then Boris becomes Tory leader as Parliament is dissolved, and never Prime Minister! (Allowing for the machinations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act).

    Just a thought....

    AFZ
  • Martin54Martin54 Shipmate
    Boogie wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    It's Johnson. And an instant 'pull the plaster off' no-deal Brexit then general election so he's in for the full eight years over the next recession.

    Please no. :confounded: :cry: :cold_sweat:

    Indeed not, this isn't America: ten years. With a no deal Brexit October 31st. Making us the 51st state.
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    Eutychus wrote: »
    Here is the real truth: http://tiny.cc/10g86y

    Is this the first time in recent history that a sitting Prime Minister has announced their resignation ahead of time? This seems to leave May as a positively paralytic, let alone lame duck for the next ten days or so.

    Thatcher was rather similar, although she went through a leadership election, which she won. But colleagues made her an offer she couldn't refuse, I think.
  • Schroedingers CatSchroedingers Cat Shipmate, Waving not Drowning Host
    Corbyn.
  • Martin54Martin54 Shipmate
    I wish, but no chance. And he hasn't exactly shone has he?
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    A friend said to me that after the Tory bunfight, MPs will be off on summer hols, until October. For some reason, I collapsed in giggles. Pythonesque. What was the line, on second thoughts, let's not go to Camelot, 'tis a silly idea.
  • Martin54Martin54 Shipmate
    How long before the Scots have the jones to Scexit the UK and join the EU?
  • Martin54Martin54 Shipmate
    And if North West Central Macedonia can do it, Wales too.
  • RicardusRicardus Shipmate
    I've just had a wicked thought and this is exactly what I would try in Corbyn's position.

    Let's assume Boris is one of the final 2... at that point, the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition should table a Vote of No Confidence. Having in the meantime persuaded the DUP not to vote with the government...

    Then Boris becomes Tory leader as Parliament is dissolved, and never Prime Minister! (Allowing for the machinations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act).

    Just a thought....

    AFZ

    Unfortunately I think Mr Johnson, who isn't stupid in matters of his own advancement, has already thought of that, and gone out of his way to cosy up to the DUP (he spoke at their conference IIRC).
  • KwesiKwesi Shipmate
    How about Johnson wins on a Brexit ticket, agreeing to leave by October 30th. at the latest. Boris, though, is utterly unprincipled and doesn't really care if the UK leaves or stays. To get the policy through Parliament he needs to get a deal. That, however, requires re-negotiation with the EU. So, Boris feels constrained to get an extension to the October date or even to revoke (temporarily of course) article 50 while he prepares his new initiative. It is not beyond belief, therefore, that Boris becomes author of The Great Betrayal..................
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Ricardus wrote: »
    I've just had a wicked thought and this is exactly what I would try in Corbyn's position.

    Let's assume Boris is one of the final 2... at that point, the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition should table a Vote of No Confidence. Having in the meantime persuaded the DUP not to vote with the government...

    Then Boris becomes Tory leader as Parliament is dissolved, and never Prime Minister! (Allowing for the machinations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act).

    Just a thought....

    AFZ

    Unfortunately I think Mr Johnson, who isn't stupid in matters of his own advancement, has already thought of that, and gone out of his way to cosy up to the DUP (he spoke at their conference IIRC).

    It's a good point but the DUP are just as ruthless as he is and they'll not support him for nothing. I think they will realise that he cannot deliver what they want. OTOH that doesn't mean they would help to bring the government down.

    AFZ
  • PigletPiglet All Saints Host, Circus Host
    Out of curiosity, whoever wins the leadership election, how long is it before you're due to have a General Election?
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host
    According to Wikipedia it’s due on 5/5/22
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Shipmate
    edited May 24
    2021

    My current bet for the run off is Graham Brady versus Rory Stewart - as everybody else self-immolates like last time.
  • Yes, Rory is far and away the most competent, and, I suspect, shrewd enough to avoid the self-destructive quagmire that is internal Tory Party infighting.

    The 'Nasty Party' is at its nastiest when tearing at its own entrails.

    Corbyn's got a chance if Johnson wins and I suspect many Tories know that - but they are arrogant enough to overlook the obvious.
  • Martin54Martin54 Shipmate
    edited May 24
    It's a 5 year cycle. US is 4.
  • PigletPiglet All Saints Host, Circus Host
    Thanks for the info.
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    My money's on Hunt to beat Rudd in the final vote. Tory MPs to stab Johnson in the back during their part of the process.

    I hope for the UK's sake you're right. Johnson is so obviously not a bright man playing the buffoon but rather just a buffoon. Not sure if he's better or worse than Trump but they may well be cousins.
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    Eutychus wrote: »
    Here is the real truth: http://tiny.cc/10g86y

    Is this the first time in recent history that a sitting Prime Minister has announced their resignation ahead of time? This seems to leave May as a positively paralytic, let alone lame duck for the next ten days or so.

    Depends on your definition of recent, but my recollection is that Churchill gave a bit of notice, certainly enough for farewell dinners to be organised etc.
Sign In or Register to comment.