The UK Prime Minister

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  • If I was in the UK, not in a public Christian ministry position, and in the position of most on this thread, I'd be out there in the real world trying to stir up non-Tory, non-Brexit political engagement in preparation for the next election, whenever it is, in every possible way rather of prognosticating on the basis of media stories about media stories.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited May 31
    Some of us are indeed trying to do that, of course, by supporting, and engaging with, various political parties and agencies, as best we can.
    :wink:
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Some of us are indeed trying to do that, of course, by supporting, and engaging with, various political parties and agencies, as best we can.
    :wink:

    Yep. As I have intimated before, there is pro-2nd-referendum movement within the Labour party that I am (a small) part of.

    In the last two general elections, I modified every election poster the Tories produced by adding facts... I am ready to do so again.

    Small things but yes, I am participating as much as I can.

    AFZ
  • Having spent a few weeks pounding the streets delivering leaflets and talking to people as part of a "Stop Brexit" party, we'll soon be hitting the streets again talking to people to maintain our momentum with an expectation of a campaign for something before the next scheduled election in 2021 - whether that's a referendum or general election.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    I really cannot see us falling out without a deal. Parliament will do its best to stop it. I know it is the default position.
    I do not think a no deal Brexit candidate will win the vote for leader. They will thrown in to the teeth an aggressive, upset Parliament who will rip them to shreds.
  • SandemaniacSandemaniac Shipmate
    Let's face it, whoever gets the job, it will be political suicide. And yet the little lemmings still keep jostling to be first off the cliff...

    (yes I know it's a misrepresentation of lemmings, but I can't think of a better metaphor before breakfast)

    AG
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Shipmate
    Maybe May will put the country first, write to the EU and revoke article 50 the day before she steps down as prime minister (rather than as Tory leader) and thereby let whatever government ends up in power blame her but also achieve a consensus on a policy before they try triggering article 50 again - if they in fact do that.

    We can but dream ...
  • Maybe May will put the country first, write to the EU and revoke article 50 the day before she steps down as prime minister (rather than as Tory leader) and thereby let whatever government ends up in power blame her but also achieve a consensus on a policy before they try triggering article 50 again - if they in fact do that.

    We can but dream ...

    I would laugh long and hard at that, even though the fallout would be awful.
  • EnochEnoch Shipmate
    ... Having said all that, a Parliament with 200 Labour MPs, 100 Tories and 100 UKIPers - sorry - Brexit Party idiots would see the Blues have very little power. Labour/SNP/PC/LibDem coalition would put a final end to their Brexit nonsense. ...
    Sorry. Forget it. Ain't going to happen.

    Corbyn will never share power with anyone.

    No other party leader will share power with Labour without the precondition that Labour changes its leader. Labour has neither the mechanism nor the traditions to do that.

    Cast your mind back to 2010. One of the options then was for the Lib Dems and others to enter into some sort of agreement to support a somewhat wing-clipped Labour administration. Although the negotiations were confidential, it seems fairly clear that one of the big reasons why that option turned out not to be a runner was that Gordon Brown wasn't prepared to give enough place to the other parties who might be willing to offer him support.

    And never forget how much Ramsay MacDonald and the 1931 election have become a part of Labour Party mythology.
  • Never mind that Corbyn has one of the longest histories of cross-party working of any Labour MP. You don't manage to chair STWC if you can't work across party divides.

    My understanding of the 2010 negotiations was there were two major factors: one was simply numbers, Labour + Lib dem didn't have a working majority. The other was that Clegg and Cameron were just politically and socially closer to each other than either was to Brown. The Lib dems kept up the façade of talking to Labour because they thought it might give them leverage in negotiations with the tories.
  • PigletPiglet All Saints Host, Circus Host
    edited June 1
    Something that's been bothering me about the Tory leadership contest: are there absolutely no sensible, Europhile Tories who would put their hats in the ring?
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    @Enoch, sorry but that's all fluff and nonsense. The issue remains that I don't see a parliament with those number materialising but if it did, then the rainbow coalition I describe would follow for two very good reasons:

    1) The key actors all (in direct contrast to far too many Tory MPs) recognise the import of the moment and will want to fix the Brexit mess. Unlike Clegg's ridiculous claim in 2010 that the country needed him and his party to support the Tories, it really would be true in such a situation.
    2) There is significant agreement between these parties on many issues other than Brexit. For example, proper analysis of the SNP and Labour manifestos in 2015 showed they were almost identical in terms of fiscal policy.*

    Of course, The SNP, the LibDems, PC and the Greens would all demand a referendum as the price of cooperation. I understand why some people feel Corbyn doesn't want to go that way but in such a hypothetical situation, of course, the Labour party and its leader would accept that condition.

    AFZ

    *IIRC this was IFS analysis but the SNP very cleverly managed to paint Labour as just more Tory austerity.**

    **The pincer movement of the SNP convincing Scots that Labour would be just more of the same badness from Westminster and Cameron selling a Labour vote as a route to SNP domination of England is what stopped Miliband from getting to Downing Street. For me, the SNP sort of had a point (as well as the well-documented issues with Scottish Labour, although some brilliant MPs like Douglas Alexander were lost) but Cameron's argument was a bare-faced lie as well as blatantly racist. It's amazing how much of this keeps coming back to the malign influence of that Eton Old Boy.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Piglet wrote: »
    Something that's been bothering me about the Tory leadership contest: are there absolutely no sensible, Europhile Tories who would put their hats in the ring?

    Apparently not.
    And we need 2 of them.
    Two who will beat all the other MPs and make it to the final round.

    AFZ
  • Wet KipperWet Kipper Shipmate
    edited June 1
    Maybe May will put the country first, write to the EU and revoke article 50 the day before she steps down as prime minister (rather than as Tory leader) and thereby let whatever government ends up in power blame her but also achieve a consensus on a policy before they try triggering article 50 again - if they in fact do that.

    We can but dream ...

    I dreamt it too - there's too many pages in the Treeza rant thread (or was it one of the many Brexit threads?) for me to go find it, but I made the very same suggestion for a "two birds with one stone" scenario- but that was way before the original Brexit date
  • Piglet wrote: »
    Something that's been bothering me about the Tory leadership contest: are there absolutely no sensible, Europhile Tories who would put their hats in the ring?

    Apparently not.
    And we need 2 of them.
    Two who will beat all the other MPs and make it to the final round.

    AFZ
    Sam Gyimah has thrown his hat in the ring, and has said he will go for a referendum to confirm government position.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    Piglet wrote: »
    Something that's been bothering me about the Tory leadership contest: are there absolutely no sensible, Europhile Tories who would put their hats in the ring?

    Apparently not.
    And we need 2 of them.
    Two who will beat all the other MPs and make it to the final round.

    AFZ
    Sam Gyimah has thrown his hat in the ring, and has said he will go for a referendum to confirm government position.

    At this point anyone promising this knows they aren't going to make it through the members ballot - so it seems to be less an attempt to 'start a debate' and more a way of guaranteeing some media coverage.
  • It will be interesting how many MPs he can get behind him, as a measure of whether there's a sizable body of Tory MPs who would support a referendum to confirm government policy on EU membership. And, if he's on the members ballot then how many Conservative Party members feel likewise (we keep getting told that the membership is very pro-hard leave, but we've no real way to quantify that)
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    It will be interesting how many MPs he can get behind him, as a measure of whether there's a sizable body of Tory MPs who would support a referendum to confirm government policy on EU membership. And, if he's on the members ballot then how many Conservative Party members feel likewise (we keep getting told that the membership is very pro-hard leave, but we've no real way to quantify that)

    Alan, in your last sentence, you refer to members and membership. Do you mean the Parliamentary or the party at large please?
  • The party at large. So, for the second part of the voting when the two candidates selected by MPs seek the votes of the Conservative Party membership.
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    Thanks
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Ok. Our media need to be collectively locked in a room and made to watch Barney the Dinosaur or some such for hours on end...

    Sajid David - who is clearly an idiot - was reported on the BBC radio news saying the following
    1) I want to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop
    2) I don't want an extension beyond 31st October and
    3) we must prepare for No Deal

    3. Is actually the sanest part of all this as with his positions on 1. And 2. No Deal is inevitable unless reality creeps in somewhere...

    So: 1. The EU will not negotiate. Even if they did, there is no way around the backstop without a proper Customs Union being sorted without breaching the Good Friday Agreement. An international treaty that the United Kingdom is a signatory to!!!!
    2. Even if 1 wasn't fantasy- which it is - there is No Possible way to do this by 31st October! None. The Commissioners will still be looking for stationery...
    3. So this becomes almost sane...

    How, seriously, How, the fuck, is a minister of the crown allowed to get away with this bilge unchallenged????

    Simple questions:
    Given that the EU has said it won't renegotiate, how can you do this? Are they lying?
    What IS your solution to the Irish border that will not breach the GFA? Have you read the GFA (~40 pages)
    Can you confirm the horrendous consequences of No Deal as laid out by the government's own assessment? How can we possibly prepare for that?


    AFAICT he was asked none of these but his comments just get 'reported'
    And he remains both a terrible choice for PM and not the worst option.

    Help.

    God Save the Queen and her Kingdom!

    AFZ
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    I do have to share this; best Boris joke I've heard so far:

    Virtually every Tory MP thinks Boris is an arse.

    Apart from Chris Grayling who thinks he's an elbow.

    [Credit to Richard Osman]
  • I do have to share this; best Boris joke I've heard so far:

    Virtually every Tory MP thinks Boris is an arse.

    Apart from Chris Grayling who thinks he's an elbow.

    [Credit to Richard Osman]

    :D
  • It's still difficult to beat HIGNFY
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    Leadsom made me laugh, as she said she wanted a "managed exit", with side deals, and wants to speak to individual states. I think the EU has ruled all of that out, but who cares.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    It's still difficult to beat HIGNFY

    Though Johnson owes much of his position to his exposure there.
  • PigletPiglet All Saints Host, Circus Host
    That's true, @chrisstiles. Perhaps he should have stuck to that - he was better at it ...
  • Curiosity killedCuriosity killed Shipmate
    edited June 3
    So currently we're up to 13 candidates - Guardian article with a quick pithy summary:
    1. James Cleverly
    2. Michael Gove
    3. Sam Gyimah
    4. Matt Hancock
    5. Mark Harper
    6. Jeremy Hunt
    7. Sajid Javid
    8. Boris Johnson
    9. Andrea Leadsom
    10. Kit Malthouse
    11. Esther McVey
    12. Dominic Raab
    13. Rory Stewart
    That drop down list also suggests a few other names that could throw their hats into the ring, including James Brokenshire who suggested that fewer candidates should be put forward.

    Many of these are not covering themselves in glory during this campaigning period, but Jeremy Hunt really outdid himself yesterday, campaigning in Scotland giving a speech in Edinburgh (the most remain city in the most remain country of the Union), under the statue of Adam Smith, declaring he would deliver Brexit. He then used the phrase from Culloden to Canary Wharf as part of a rhetorical flourish demonstrating the breadth of the Union. What a tin ear.
  • So currently we're up to 13 candidates - Guardian article with a quick pithy summary:
    1. James Cleverly
    2. Michael Gove
    3. Sam Gyimah
    4. Matt Hancock
    5. Mark Harper
    6. Jeremy Hunt
    7. Sajid Javid
    8. Boris Johnson
    9. Andrea Leadsom
    10. Kit Malthouse
    11. Esther McVey
    12. Dominic Raab
    13. Rory Stewart
    That drop down list also suggests a few other names that could throw their hats into the ring, including James Brokenshire who suggested that fewer candidates should be put forward.

    Many of these are not covering themselves in glory during this campaigning period, but Jeremy Hunt really outdid himself yesterday, campaigning in Scotland giving a speech in Edinburgh (the most remain city in the most remain country of the Union), under the statue of Adam Smith, declaring he would deliver Brexit. He then used the phrase from Culloden to Canary Wharf as part of a rhetorical flourish demonstrating the breadth of the Union. What a tin ear.

    It makes sense if you consider that 95%+ of tory MPs and members are in England, mostly in the south. Mr Rhyming Slang doesn't give a shit about anything north of Oxford except as set dressing.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    So currently we're up to 13 candidates - Guardian article with a quick pithy summary:
    1. James Cleverly
    2. Michael Gove
    3. Sam Gyimah
    4. Matt Hancock
    5. Mark Harper
    6. Jeremy Hunt
    7. Sajid Javid
    8. Boris Johnson
    9. Andrea Leadsom
    10. Kit Malthouse
    11. Esther McVey
    12. Dominic Raab
    13. Rory Stewart
    That drop down list also suggests a few other names that could throw their hats into the ring, including James Brokenshire who suggested that fewer candidates should be put forward.

    Many of these are not covering themselves in glory during this campaigning period, but Jeremy Hunt really outdid himself yesterday, campaigning in Scotland giving a speech in Edinburgh (the most remain city in the most remain country of the Union), under the statue of Adam Smith, declaring he would deliver Brexit. He then used the phrase from Culloden to Canary Wharf as part of a rhetorical flourish demonstrating the breadth of the Union. What a tin ear.

    It makes sense if you consider that 95%+ of tory MPs and members are in England, mostly in the south. Mr Rhyming Slang doesn't give a shit about anything north of Oxford except as set dressing.

    And it doesn’t matter anyway, as the audience they are aiming at are the Tory Party membership, a large percentage of which voted Brexit Party in the recent elections.

    Edinburgh in this context was just a scenic backdrop
  • It was especially just a scenic backdrop as the contest is to be leader of the Conservative Party in England. I'm not aware that Ruth Davidson has quit as leader of the Scottish Conservatives.
  • Which posits the interesting question about her position (and also Nicola Sturgeon's) as leader of a Scottish party, represented in Westminster, yet not an MP herself. That's not too much of a problem for Sturgeon, as all her MPs represent Scottish constituencies anyway (tho' I always wonder if they should put up a candidate in Corby as well!), however the Conservatives are a Britain-wide party.
  • EnochEnoch Shipmate
    @Enoch, sorry but that's all fluff and nonsense. The issue remains that I don't see a parliament with those number materialising but if it did, then the rainbow coalition I describe would follow for two very good reasons:

    1) The key actors all (in direct contrast to far too many Tory MPs) recognise the import of the moment and will want to fix the Brexit mess. Unlike Clegg's ridiculous claim in 2010 that the country needed him and his party to support the Tories, it really would be true in such a situation.
    2) There is significant agreement between these parties on many issues other than Brexit. For example, proper analysis of the SNP and Labour manifestos in 2015 showed they were almost identical in terms of fiscal policy.*

    Of course, The SNP, the LibDems, PC and the Greens would all demand a referendum as the price of cooperation. I understand why some people feel Corbyn doesn't want to go that way but in such a hypothetical situation, of course, the Labour party and its leader would accept that condition.

    AFZ

    *IIRC this was IFS analysis but the SNP very cleverly managed to paint Labour as just more Tory austerity.**

    **The pincer movement of the SNP convincing Scots that Labour would be just more of the same badness from Westminster and Cameron selling a Labour vote as a route to SNP domination of England is what stopped Miliband from getting to Downing Street. For me, the SNP sort of had a point (as well as the well-documented issues with Scottish Labour, although some brilliant MPs like Douglas Alexander were lost) but Cameron's argument was a bare-faced lie as well as blatantly racist. It's amazing how much of this keeps coming back to the malign influence of that Eton Old Boy.
    Sorry @alienfromzog from Zog, but if it's so significant that,
    "proper analysis of the SNP and Labour manifestos in 2015 showed they were almost identical in terms of fiscal policy"
    means that they'd have no problem jumping into bed with each other in the national interest, how come they're two different parties that don't get on.

    A simple assertion that
    "I understand why some people feel Corbyn doesn't want to go that way but in such a hypothetical situation, of course, the Labour party and its leader would accept that condition."
    is as much wishful thinking as the belief that falling out of the EU without a deal is no big deal.
  • TheOrganistTheOrganist Shipmate
    I think one can split the 13 into three groups: No Hopers, Please God No, and Maybe. FWIW I'd split them up thus:

    No Hopers
    James Cleverly
    Sam Gyimah
    Mark Harper
    Kit Malthouse

    Please God No
    Jeremy Hunt
    Sajid Javid
    Boris Johnson
    Andrea Leadsom

    Maybe
    Michael Gove
    Matt Hancock
    Esther McVey
    Dominic Raab
    Rory Stewart

    Of my 5 Maybes, I think it comes down to a three-way fight between Gove, Raab and Stewart. Raab will get the MP's vote, Gove will get the party member's vote, and Stewart is the one that will most appeal to the country IMHO. I think it will need MPs and party faithful to try and work out who is least likely to offend the voting public - and all of that points to Stewart.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    I would also put Gove in the please God no section
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    Enoch wrote: »
    "proper analysis of the SNP and Labour manifestos in 2015 showed they were almost identical in terms of fiscal policy"
    means that they'd have no problem jumping into bed with each other in the national interest, how come they're two different parties that don't get on.

    Simplistically, politics is more than economics, and a large part of the SNPs voting base is built around the idea that (especially post IndyRef) they are not Labour.

    WRT Brexit, Labour and SNP probably started off with a roughly equivalent mix of both sides but in Labour's case this is skewed in terms of constituencies who are majority Leave so has a different voting coalition to hold together.
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    And Raab. Dominic 'I didn't realise how much of the goods we import come through Dover' Raab exemplifies everything that's wrong with the hard Brexit project.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    Dafyd wrote: »
    And Raab. Dominic 'I didn't realise how much of the goods we import come through Dover' Raab exemplifies everything that's wrong with the hard Brexit project.

    Is that also Mr "get rid of the Working Time Directive because people should want to work every waking hour" Raab? Definitely file under Please God No.

    Though to be honest they're all Please God No. Choosing between them is like when kids ask "would you rather be machine-gunned or drink strychnine?"
  • Dafyd wrote: »
    And Raab. Dominic 'I didn't realise how much of the goods we import come through Dover' Raab exemplifies everything that's wrong with the hard Brexit project.

    He and McVey are thick as mince, Gove is brighter but not half as clever as he thinks he is. They're all awful. The working assumption among tories seems to be magical thinking - that anything they want badly enough must be possible, and anything complex can be resolved just by shouting louder at it.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Enoch wrote: »
    [If there's so much agreement between the SNP and Labour that] means that they'd have no problem jumping into bed with each other in the national interest, how come they're two different parties that don't get on[?]

    So skipping over the difference between would have no problem with and would do it because party interest and national interest happens to align... what's the big difference between Labour and the SNP? Umm... maybe the issue of Scottish independence? And why is the rivalry so bitter? Because Labour thinks that the SNP aid the Tories by taking 'their' votes in Scotland and because the SNP think Labour is part of the Westminster problem...

    As to the other part; Corbyn has not shown clear leadership that many of us wish he would. And he clearly should but the idea that he would not accept a referendum he half-supports anyway as the price of a coalition is just silly...

    AFZ
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    I think one can split the 13 into three groups: No Hopers, Please God No, and Maybe. FWIW I'd split them up thus:

    <snip>

    Maybe
    Michael Gove
    Matt Hancock
    Esther McVey
    Dominic Raab
    Rory Stewart

    On a practical level you may be right about these all being maybes but

    When Gove is seen as reasonable you know we're in trouble. Ask. Any. Teacher.

    If you ask any disabled person (who relies on any level of state support) about McVey I bet you 50% of the response will be swear words.

    Raab's ignorance and stupidity has been brilliantly laid out in his own words. He is Boris without the charisma.

    This is why I despair.

    AFZ
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    KarlLB wrote: »
    Dafyd wrote: »
    And Raab. Dominic 'I didn't realise how much of the goods we import come through Dover' Raab exemplifies everything that's wrong with the hard Brexit project.

    Is that also Mr "get rid of the Working Time Directive because people should want to work every waking hour" Raab? Definitely file under Please God No.

    You've just reminded me that he was also one of the authors of 'Britannia Unchained'.
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Raab's ignorance and stupidity has been brilliantly laid out in his own words. He is Boris without the charisma.
    Raab appears to be a True Believer in Brexit. Boris isn't a true believer in anything except perhaps that consequences are for non-posh people.
    Whether stupid principles are better than no principles is an interesting question.

  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    Boris believes in Boris. I don’t think he is charismatic. He had a bumbling charm but no charisma
  • Trying to divert my aching mind away from the shuddersome Tory list, it occurred to me that a good candidate for the job of PM might be that nice Mr Khan of London Town.
    :wink:
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Dafyd wrote: »
    Raab's ignorance and stupidity has been brilliantly laid out in his own words. He is Boris without the charisma.
    Raab appears to be a True Believer in Brexit. Boris isn't a true believer in anything except perhaps that consequences are for non-posh people.
    Whether stupid principles are better than no principles is an interesting question.

    Fair point. Boris is a bullshitter. He'll say whatever will serve his purpose at that particular moment and doesn't care if it's true or not or even if it contradicts what he just said.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    Trying to divert my aching mind away from the shuddersome Tory list, it occurred to me that a good candidate for the job of PM might be that nice Mr Khan of London Town.
    :wink:

    Agreed!

  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    The trouble with the internet is I can't identify sarcasm. I would certainly prefer Khan to a Tory.
  • I was being rather whimsical - but certainly not sarcastic!
  • AnselminaAnselmina Shipmate
    It's still difficult to beat HIGNFY

    Though Johnson owes much of his position to his exposure there.

    I know what you mean, because he received, arguably, media friendly exposure there. And familiarity, while it may breed contempt on the one hand, on the other hand it de-sensitises people to the real negative character of what they're laughing at. If we're laughing at him, and he's being a good sport, well, he must be okay, right? So I can see how that argument may apply.

    But I would on the whole like to disagree.

    I think it was always plain from his participation on the show that he was a completely specious, self-serving opportunist with no actual competence, and no real inclination to acquire any. And I think he was called on this many times when he guested on the show, especially by the team captains, Ian Hislop and Paul Merton. I would really wonder at the logic processes of anyone watching any of Boris Johnson's 'performances' on HIGNFY and concluding that he was a worthwhile politician, or anyone you would seriously want involved with the running of your city or country.

    It was on HIGNFY that Paul Merton shared with an initially unbelieving audience, quite a long time ago, that the 'tousled blond mop' was a carefully and deliberately cultivated image; Boris always running his hands through his hair in a particular way, before he'd go on stage or face a camera. The point of the anecdote was to prove that Johnson was a calculating individual who hoped to fool people into thinking he was just a jovial do-do.

    And I would also say that the larger proportion of the audience for a BBC satirical news programme of that kind would be unlikely to think well of politicians of Boris's ilk, to begin with.
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