Rossweisse RIP Rossweisse, HellHost and long-time Shipmate.

Robert Armin RIP Robert Armin, Shipmate of long-standing.

How to Start a War


1) Declare that a country is an enemy, "dangerous". Although your country has nuclear weapons, declare the other country should not.
2) Starve and harm the other country economically with a blockade oil sales, etc.
3) Create difficulty in that country due to your blockade so that there is inflation and the people suffer.
4) When desperate enough, observe the other country strike back.
5) When the predictable action takes place (like the strike on Saudi Aramco) claim justification for war, whether or not you can validate the claim.
6. Employ more propaganda to get your population to demonize the "enemy" and justify war.

(We are getting pretty good at this)
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Comments

  • That's about right, although the President cocked it up last time, if his aim is a war with Iran. I think the strategy is to flail your arms about near Iran but don't hit anything, because the Donald wants to be known as The Greatest Diplomat of All Time. He just doesn't know how to get there. He thought that if he acted tough, Iran would come crawling to him, just like he thought the Democrats would on health care. He is finding out that both Iran and his domestic opponents are not playing his game.

    I hate him so much.
  • He’s a coward. While he’s stupid I think he knows that talk is all he can do about Iran and he won’t move against North Korea because of China.
  • Of course there is no evidence that Iran conducted the strike. The Houthis have been launching drone strikes for quite a while now.
  • Maybe, but Iran is a convenient peg on which to hang your paranoia (or whatever)...
  • It’s not inconceivable they did it, but if that’s the case, it should be taken as a message. If Iran can shut down half of Saudi’s oil production, and shoot up oil prices, with a handful of drones, imagine what they can do with their swarms of missiles. The cities and infrastructure of the Arabian peninsula are very fragile, and, despite investing billions in air defense, extremely vulnerable to some very cheap weaponry.
  • I'm kinda cheering the rebels after that strike. I do not like the bloody Saudis at all.
  • Who does? But they make life possible. It would surely cost less than a $trillion to obtain justice and peace and security for the Houthi, everyone else on the peninsular and Iran? Cheap at any price I'd have thought. Hopelessly naive I'm sure. Otherwise we're sitting mesmerized by headlights in the road. Afghanistan is less than nothing. Syria-Iraq is nothing.
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil

    A couple of commentators have pointed out that the drone Iran would typically use for this type of thing has a maximum range of about 100 km. A drone flying from southern Iraq to hit these targets would have to travel about 700 km- the distance would be even longer from Iran. It seems unlikely that Iran has created a secret super drone with such a massive improvement in range.
  • Er... Combat range: 1,700 km (1,100 mi, 920 nmi)
  • SirPalomidesSirPalomides Shipmate
    edited September 2019
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Er... Combat range: 1,700 km (1,100 mi, 920 nmi)

    From the link:
    Though the Shahed 129 airframe is likely capable of its claimed 1700 km combat range, it relies on a ground control station, which Iranian state media say is limited to a 200 km datalink. Independent analysts are more positive, saying the effective range is likely 300–400 km, but are clear that the drone's reliance on a ground station severely circumscribes its effective range. Other experts say the Shahed 129's datalink could likely not reach even 200 km. The drone can use an autopilot system, similar to that used on the Karrar UAV, to follow predefined way-points beyond its control station's communication range.

    So, beyond 300-400 km (the generous estimate) it would have to rely on an autopilot system with pre-defined waypoints. It seems like lobbing a cruise missile would be simpler.

    The Houthis' story- that they did it with help from people inside the Kingdom- seems the simplest explanation. Those oil fields are in the proximity of some of Saudi's Shia population.
  • Declaration of War, short version
    1. Name of enemy:____________________________
    2. Date of start of war (can be post-dated):__________________________
    3. Reason for War (as stated to public):___________________________
    4. Who benefits from the war: _________________________
    5. From above, how much money are they donating to my re-election?______________
    6. Covfefe: ____________________________
  • Occam's Razor applies, I guess...
  • Helpful analysis from M.K. Bhadrakumar (a veteran Indian diplomat who seems to know his stuff): https://indianpunchline.com/winners-and-losers-from-saudi-aramcos-travails/
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    Er... Combat range: 1,700 km (1,100 mi, 920 nmi)

    From the link:
    Though the Shahed 129 airframe is likely capable of its claimed 1700 km combat range, it relies on a ground control station, which Iranian state media say is limited to a 200 km datalink. Independent analysts are more positive, saying the effective range is likely 300–400 km, but are clear that the drone's reliance on a ground station severely circumscribes its effective range. Other experts say the Shahed 129's datalink could likely not reach even 200 km. The drone can use an autopilot system, similar to that used on the Karrar UAV, to follow predefined way-points beyond its control station's communication range.

    So, beyond 300-400 km (the generous estimate) it would have to rely on an autopilot system with pre-defined waypoints. It seems like lobbing a cruise missile would be simpler.

    The Houthis' story- that they did it with help from people inside the Kingdom- seems the simplest explanation. Those oil fields are in the proximity of some of Saudi's Shia population.

    I agree : ) which will lead to a ferocious security crackdown. Happy Days!
  • Yeah, MbS is telling his friends that Saudi Arabia will handle the crisis themselves... which seems to suggest they recognize an internal security problem and don't want the US or anyone else getting involved. God help the longsuffering Shia in Saudi Arabia...
  • Win-win for Iran.
  • The Kremlin is taking advantage of recent events to point to the failings of Saudi's very expensive American air defense system, and advertise Russia's own, supposedly superior, S-400 system. In view of the US's own growing oil production, and the growing unpopularity of Saudi in US politics, Saudi might end up regarding Russia as a more reliable partner than the US.
  • I'd be happy with that, in a flippant way.
  • The Kremlin is taking advantage of recent events to point to the failings of Saudi's very expensive American air defense system, and advertise Russia's own, supposedly superior, S-400 system. In view of the US's own growing oil production, and the growing unpopularity of Saudi in US politics, Saudi might end up regarding Russia as a more reliable partner than the US.

    Turkey did go for the S-400 system and 45 was not happy.
  • Of course there is no evidence that Iran conducted the strike. The Houthis have been launching drone strikes for quite a while now.

    As Bishop's Finger points out, it's convenient to blame the Iranians. They've been demonised since the occupation of the US embassy 4 decades ago, whereas no-one knows the Houthis.
  • Agree, as I pointed out on another thread: the US will never forgive the Iranians for, in their eyes, making them appear not only weak but foolish. But it wasn't an Iranian pilot that tried to land one helicopter on top of another ...
  • It wasn't two helicopters. It's about pride, yes, the politics among nations is playground stuff. Trump is more sophisticated. Comes the closest to starting again going forward with goodwill. A full apology for history would close the gap.
  • His performance at the UNGA was a step back. Bloodlust?!
  • I guess Trump has received his marching orders: Crown Prince MBS (AKA "Mr Bone Saw) has publicly stated that a war with Iran would collapse the world economy.
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