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Circus: Mafia - Reality Island

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Comments

  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Enough with the worms, already, Maz. We're having a sad moment here.
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Sorry, Pen. I tried to tell the bad guys that trying for Lambie was their own chance, and if they'd gone for it, it looks like you would have saved another life.

    But it means they've lost now. Three confirmed innocents. Two unknown. It doesn't matter if Nem, or Steve, or both, are guilty, one of them goes today, and if there's still a bad guy left, they can only get one more of us, and then they lose.

    You did your job. Kept Lambie above ground for as long as we needed her, and she just won it for us. Because, as I think I mentioned to Dai, it's all numbers. And now the numbers are on our side.

    So long, Penny, you absolute hero.

  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    I can't see myself not nominating Nem at this point. Lambie, Fi, you good with that, or do either of you want to make a case against Stevie?

    It seems to me, though, that Nem's vote yesterday was incriminating, and the fact that the bad guys were still alert enough to murder anyone at all suggests that we are probably facing more than just Sleepy Steve. So, for me, we should vote Nem out first, then see if that's the game.


  • I'm good.
  • Naomi's ghost beckons Penny to join her on the cliff overlooking the beach where the remnant are frantically hunting the cat.
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    That’s good enough for me. Fifi can try to change my mind if she wants, but I can’t see why she would.


    Nem
  • FirenzeFirenze Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Dame Fifi distinctly remembers that cat giving her a dirty look. Or was that the pink unicorn it was riding? Never liked that Floyd Bieber chap and his stupid musicals that one with chicken in it what was it? Bantam of the Opera that was it queues down the street when they could have been coming to see me - ME - in Ghosts by Ibsen.

    Gloomily refills her glass.
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    That looks like three people happy to see Nem nominated. With Steve still happy to sleep through (which is, as it happens, the right tactical play for him, whatever side he's on, at this point).

    Nem, your only play left is to try to persuade us to get rid of Stevie. Which means you'll have to nominate the dozy bugger. Do you want to get on and do that so we can vote?
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    Nominations close tomorrow
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Nem, as you haven’t made any sort of defence, or put a case against Steve, and as your explanation for a clearly bad vote yesterday was so weak, I can’t imagine what you could say now to make me not want to vote you out.

    I’m sticking to my rule about stating intentions in advance here, and giving you fair warning that I really want to see if this is going to be over after we get rid of you, and will be voting to do just that as soon as nominations close.
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    Nominations closed, voting begins.

    You may vote for:

    Nem the cat, nominated by Ethan Eliab
    No lynching
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Nem
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Voting for Nem is now the only sensible course of action for the innocents. Our worst case now is if Nem and Steve are both guilty - in that case, no lynching and a murder tonight (which we cannot prevent) puts the numbers at two against two, and the bad guys win (because we can't lynch but they can still murder).

    If only Nem, or Steve, but not both, are guilty, then it would be nice to take out the guilty one first, but as long as we get one of them today, we still win, even if we guess wrong, because we'll still have the numbers to vote out the guilty survivor. But if we don't vote out either of them today, we would have to guess right tomorrow.

    Of course, I think Nem's the guilty one, for good reasons, and would almost certainly have voted for her even if she had nominated Steve, but the important point, is that we need to get rid of one of them today, no matter what. And Nem's the only choice available.
  • Nem, Nem, Nem, Nem, Nem...
  • Naomi's ghost comments to the other spectres (except Mario who is currently stuffed in a coconut), "The foul cat will be joining us soon".
  • FirenzeFirenze Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    edited January 2020
    Nem. Hic!
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    I'm starting to think we might make it.

    Listen, Lambie, Fi, I'm not going to pretend that our acquaintance has exactly been a barrel of laughs, what with all the murders, intrigue and terror, but I can see the makings of a great team here. We've got a writer, an actor, and a singer/songwriter, looking like they might get out alive.

    So, what do you all think of a tribute to the ones who didn't make it? "Reality Island - The Musical!". I do the songs. Lambie the dialogue. Fifi produces and directs. Hell, Steve could even be a silent partner - he's qualified, after all.

    We'll need to cut Scarlett in on a share, to use the Reality Island branding. But that's no bad thing. If there's cash and publicity in it for her, I suspect she might arrange a slightly more sea-worthy rescue boat when this is over.


    Assuming it is over that is. Even if we're right about Nem, we still don't know about Steve.


  • Um, (looks around nervously), haven't we got another night to get through? Even with Nem gone (crosses fingers), we still have a Predator on the Loose. A very, very quiet predator.

    (This will be interesting--will Steve wake up long enough to kill one of us?)
  • Worms! all you are worms!
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    We don't know for sure that there were three bad guys. And if there were only two, we don't know for sure that the remaining one is Nem.

    If Steve's guilty instead of (or as well as) Nem, we do indeed have one more night unless he gives it up and concedes. Which he might.

    I don't think we'll lose now, unless we deliberately screw it up, but it would be nice to think that those of us who are left are going to go home.
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Doesn't look like Nem or Steve want to vote. Not that it can make any difference now.

    Here's hoping that Steve is either innocent or completely comatose, and that none of the rest of us need to die.
  • Naomi's ghost notes that if Steve is the last of the mafia then it could be a very long night. This ghost business is interesting. Who should she haunt tonight?
  • Penny's ghost thinks that the TV crew need a little light haunting to get them to count the votes.

    "IRL", Sir Palomides' profile has a last active on the Ship date before Christmas.
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    edited January 2020
    Given that even the solitary person accused hasn't turned up to vote, I think it's time to close the ballot.

    Nem is lynched. She was the final mafia agent.

    The survivors have won and are now on the b-list celebrity gravy train for life!
  • Ooh aahhhh!
  • DafydDafyd Hell Host
    Hooray for the innocents.
    We would have done better if I'd not suddenly developed a case of overconfidence in my ability to tell mafia from innocents. I'm not sure I was entirely wrong to want to take a breather though given the state of things at the time even though in hindsight it was wrong.

    Now I want to know: did the mafia kill me or did the vigilante?
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    The vigilante was very restrained and didn't kill anyone.
  • Hopefully there will be a suitable memorial erected to those of us who got murdered, and the lynched innocents.

    I ended up alternating protecting Lambie and myself, due to suspicions about my own longevity, so yes the missed kill was they'd targeted me, and hence my death last night was inevitable.
  • Ghost cat eventually returns to congratulate her innocent companions. Well done!
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Ethan takes a long, slow look at the incredible vista of natural beauty that is Reality Island.

    The sand gleams with almost unbearably white perfection, swept into impossibly smooth arcs with each crystal blue wave that dashes across the surface. Beyond that, stark but delicate spires of rock rise up to join the majestic cliff face, above which the tall sea grasses wave in the warm and gentle breeze. On the other side, the sand dunes rise and fall, and songbirds and iridescent insects dart from spreading palm trees and patches of wild flowers.

    He takes a deep breath and sighs wistfully.

    "What a fucking shit hole"

    The rescue boat is coming around the headland into view. Civilisation and sanity beckon.

    And inspiration is coming. "Reality Island: the Musical!" is slowly taking shape. Mazza's intro - to be reprised for his dramatic exit - "A Feast for Worms" is practically writing itself. Nem's sinister number "Don't be the Mouse" is going to need some thought to get the subtle key changes right, but he's confident it'll work. Penny, though, she needs something special, and he's already rejected most of his first thoughts as crass and clichéd. And given Ethan's particular genre, that's saying something. "MVP - Most Valued Physician" might do as a fan song. Needs some thought, though.

    There's a hit there, waiting to be pulled onto paper and shaped into sound. And for the first time in far too many days, Ethan starts to feel good about life.
  • FirenzeFirenze Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Dame Fifi flings on a feather boa. And misses.

    'And of courseyou will need a leading lady! Someone of standing, with a title, and a wealth of experience. Have your people speak to my people.'
  • Naomi's ghost discovers that Pele is a real deity and there is a local volcano. She starts the necessary negotiations/invocations for the island to sink.

  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    That was an interesting game - thanks vie for running it.

    I thought NP/Mario played it brilliantly, with just the right amount of involvement to avoid being helpful or creating suspicion, and the bold ploy of not nominating an alternative candidate when accused almost persuaded me that he was innocent. In past games, that has always been a reliable indicator - a sole nominee has almost never been Mafia. Mario's slipperiness let Nem drift under the radar right to the end.

    Pendragon (with LC as a close second) would be my pick for our side's Star Baker. Once we had a declared detective, it was all about whether the Mafia could find the doctor in time to kill her. I only really suspected that it was Penny when there were seven players left (at that point, the doctor seemed to be clearly alert and active, and if they had not been confirmed innocent already, would have known that they could role-claim for the win. They didn't. So it was probably Penny or Ethan, and obviously, I knew it wasn't Ethan).

    I think there was one unforced error on each side. The Mafia shouldn't have killed Dai (he and Ethan were taking very different lines of reasoning, and there was at least a day's potential conflict there for the bad guys to exploit). We shouldn't have lynched Naomi.

    The game emphasised the real value of a detective in establishing innocence. It's counter-intuitive, because the Town inherently sees its win condition in terms of "find all the guilty", but (especially in a smaller game) a majority of known innocents is an easier, and a more secure, win. If, we had cleared another innocent rather than exposed Mario as guilty, we'd have had the game in the bag at seven survivors rather than (as actually happened) at five.

    But for me, the deep and abiding mystery of Reality Island is this:
    Dafyd wrote: »
    1) Many Mafia groups don't like to target people who are obviously enjoying taking part.

    Really? Do they? Does anyone think like this? Seriously?

    I mean, I'm open to the possibility, that you are all utterly lovely people and you all do, as a matter of course, consider the enjoyment of your fellow players to matter much more than winning; and that I am, in fact, a completely sociopathic cunt; but I can honestly say that I have never thought like that.

    It would never even have occurred to mean that anyone would think like that. I have my own personal kill list of people I will always target when I'm guilty, if I think I have a clear shot, as soon as I possibly can, because they are bloody good players. They all seem to enjoy playing. That has never seemed remotely relevant as a consideration.

    That probably doesn't reflect well on me, does it? Not sure if I care.
  • I must admit that towards the end I did start wondering if the RNG for role allocation was actually that random. I also thought that by day 3 I'd wittered on about the doctor enough that people might have had suspicions. I wasn't going to claim unless I had to, in an attempt to increase my longevity. Once I'd successfully protected myself though I knew I was going to get killed last night: the Mafia knew they'd gone for me, that it was a fair assumption that the Doctor would only protect themself or Lambie, and that they couldn't protect themself more than one night running, so a second attempt would succeed. My PM to Scarlett last night was 'I will protect Lambie and make sure my will is up to date!'
  • I'm so glad you were covering my (neck)!
  • Eliab wrote: »
    I have my own personal kill list of people I will always target when I'm guilty, if I think I have a clear shot........

    Which is why you roused my suspicion when picking on me for Day 1 lynching "because we have to choose someone"


  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    And why I prefer to moderate than to play these days.
  • Maybe Eliab should host the next one :wink:
  • GwaiGwai Epiphanies Host
    @la vie en rouge, honestly that's why I took so long to respond to your PM when you told me you were starting a game. I figured I'd die early one way or another and wasn't sure whether I should. Then I accurately figured I'd enjoy playing and reading the story even if I did die early.
  • PigletPiglet All Saints Host, Circus Host
    Despite being a bit clueless as to What Was Going On, I found myself looking forward to watching the tale unfold - well done, everyone! :)
  • I love playing Mafia, but I miss the characterization stuff. Strategy is good and fine, but it was loads of fun figuring out how I could fit a vampire floozy into a seaside community and so forth, years ago--because everybody was creating a joint reality that existed beyond the bare mechanics. I know everybody has a real life (what's that?) and hope that the next time we play, more of us will be able to, er, have fun.
  • GwaiGwai Epiphanies Host
    Hey, some of us get killed for role-playing an overly obnoxious person ;)
  • Obnoxious is fun! (What do I know, I’d have been dead ten times over if it weren’t for the doctor).
  • so, were there any masons ? a veteran ?
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    Nope.

    <Goes back and consults original list>

    There were a vigilante, a doctor and a policeman, and two mafia agents. One citizen was unreadable. Getting the balance so it's a fair game for all players is always a bit of a judgment call, but on the whole I think about 50% of the players should be plain vanilla citizens. For my money, a veteran and a vigilante would have given the citizens too much of an unfair advantage.

    Two mafia is enough for a twelve player game IMO – I’ve merrily slaughtered my way to victory through that many players before.
  • EliabEliab Shipmate
    Two mafia is enough for a twelve player game IMO – I’ve merrily slaughtered my way to victory through that many players before.

    I think you're right (although the fact that an exceptional player wins with particular odds doesn't prove that the odds are fair) - and I think the balance worked here, but there are two possible weaknesses for a low number of Mafiosi:

    1) It makes the Mafia far more vulnerable to the detective.

    In previous games, detectives tend to die quite quickly - I don't know why it should be that it's far easier for the Mafia to deduce who's the detective than it is for citizens to spot bad guys - but if a detective lasts any length of time, one lucky guess hurts a two person mob far more than a three or more person one.

    2) I think it makes the chances far higher for the sort of weight of metal win that I (unsportingly) always try for if I can.

    My alter ego's analysis in this game was that if we ever had more provably innocent people than bad guys, and could clear one additional person a day for the time needed to establish an innocent majority, that was a guaranteed win, no matter what the Mafia did, and no matter how good they were at hiding.

    I think that analysis was right, and if people had trusted the proposal of having an innocent non-special volunteer to be investigated and/or we'd had two Masons in place of the Vigilante, we'd have been in a winning position far sooner.

    The winning threshold with two Mafiosi is three proven or provable innocents, and doctor and detective still alive. With three Mafiosi, four provable innocents are needed (which is far harder to get).

    A small mob could easily lose to a large number of innocent specials on the numbers alone - it didn't happen in this game, but it's a risk to be aware of.


    As an aside, I don't think I've ever enjoyed writing any post in any game of Mafia as much as I did Ethan Eliab's attempt to explain the mathematical analysis while completely stoned.

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