Last Secretary Standing
Crœsos
Shipmate
The current U.S. Presidential administration has been noted for its chaos and high rate of turnover. With today's announcement that Rex Tillerson will be departing as Secretary of State it might be useful to review Trump's cabinet and who is left from the original appointees. The list below is in order of presidential succession.
So who's next and who's going to be last? Name your predictions. Whenever a Trump cabinet secretary departs whoever had that secretary picked as "next" gets a number of points equal to the number of remaining original cabinet secretaries. For example, whoever correctly identifies the next cabinet secretary to depart will earn 11 points, because there will be 11 original secretaries remaining after the next departure. The next correct pick after that is worth 10 points, and so on. At every departure a player gets to specify a new "next" prediction, even if they were wrong and the secretary they picked is still in the cabinet. Successfully predicting the last secretary standing (a prediction you don't get to change once you've made it) is worth 12 points. No points will be awarded for any cabinet secretaries still in place when Trump leaves office, however that occurs.
Anyone can join the game at any time, though if you wait until after the next secretary leaves you've given up a chance a 11 points.
The floor is now open for predictions. Once made, your prediction for "next secretary to go" stands until the next secretary leave office, regardless of whether the departure was your pick. Your prediction for "last secretary standing" can never be changed, so make it a good one.
My predictions:
Next To Go: Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
Last Secretary Standing: Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
*Although the Secretary of Transportation falls between the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and the Secretary of Energy in the line of Presidential succession, Elaine Chao is ineligible to succeed to the presidency because she was born in Taiwan.
- Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
- Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin
- Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis
- Attorney General Jeff Sessions
- Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
- Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue
- Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross
- Secretary of Labor Alex Acosta
- Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson
- Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao*
- Secretary of Energy Rick Perry
- Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
- Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly
So who's next and who's going to be last? Name your predictions. Whenever a Trump cabinet secretary departs whoever had that secretary picked as "next" gets a number of points equal to the number of remaining original cabinet secretaries. For example, whoever correctly identifies the next cabinet secretary to depart will earn 11 points, because there will be 11 original secretaries remaining after the next departure. The next correct pick after that is worth 10 points, and so on. At every departure a player gets to specify a new "next" prediction, even if they were wrong and the secretary they picked is still in the cabinet. Successfully predicting the last secretary standing (a prediction you don't get to change once you've made it) is worth 12 points. No points will be awarded for any cabinet secretaries still in place when Trump leaves office, however that occurs.
Anyone can join the game at any time, though if you wait until after the next secretary leaves you've given up a chance a 11 points.
The floor is now open for predictions. Once made, your prediction for "next secretary to go" stands until the next secretary leave office, regardless of whether the departure was your pick. Your prediction for "last secretary standing" can never be changed, so make it a good one.
My predictions:
Next To Go: Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
Last Secretary Standing: Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
*Although the Secretary of Transportation falls between the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and the Secretary of Energy in the line of Presidential succession, Elaine Chao is ineligible to succeed to the presidency because she was born in Taiwan.
Comments
Last Man Standing: Rick Perry
Last Man Standing: Betsy DeVos
Because there is nothing logical about this administration.
Yeah, but if we open up the contest that far the safe bet for "Next To Go" would always be White House Communications Director.
In which universe Ben Carson will be the last to go, so I nominate him for that slot.
And Mattis as next to go.
Last standing: Jim Mattis
Last standing: Elaine Chao
Last to go: Betsy De Vos...because she's as delusional as the POTUS.
Last to go: Alex Acosta, because has nothing to gain by leaving. Unless he is found in a hotel room etc., he will remain in the swamp.
Like Trump is gonna start getting all dainty about people being caught in hotel rooms with inappropriate someones. As long as said person is of the approved gender, our boy can expect a big high five from the boss. If Trump is somehow ousted and Pence gets the head office, this particular rule (much more so than most others) may vary.
Oh I completely agree. The "etc" was to cover the rest of the saying: "with a dead hooker or a live boy." Trump has no qualms about inappropriate, but a police investigation of murder, or a suspicion of Teh Gayness, would be problematic enough even for Trump.
Last to go: Sonny Perdue. Just because.
Last to go: Mattis. The last adult in the room will turn the lights out.
Despite the fact that it's a prominent appointed position, National Security Advisor is not a cabinet position so McMaster isn't included in this contest.
Conflict of interest. Fox seems to be where Trump gets a lot of his appointees these days. Not that such ethical considerations would likely be made at Fox.
Last standing: Between Acosta and Chao, going with Chao.
The scuttlebutt is leaning towards Shulkin getting forced out in the near future. See him getting run out before Sessions. Perry, Zinke, Perdue, possibly Ross, and (not on this list, because it's an executive, not cabinet, agency) Pruitt are probably safe as figures, but may get moved elsewhere—possibly other positions, possibly into the White House as political figures (OMB, etc), possibly into the Congress, state politics, or judiciary. Mattis isn't going anywhere—currently too popular with the establishment to get run out, not so popular as to run for higher office or make it into the political circuits. DeVos and Carson are incompetent boobs, so they're useful where they're put. And aren't moving up.
That leaves the two career figures—Chao and Acosta, whom nobody much hears about. Neither would be out of place in an ordinary Republican administration. Acosta's a distinct second choice, after the former CEO 45 first picked got involved in a few too many scandals for even the Senate to approve. However, Chao gets the nod as a survivor of Dubya's cabinet, where she was Secretary of Labor. She's survived one chaotic administration, she'll make it through this one. Also, Acosta gets docked survivor points for having some of his department's actions (the proposed tip credit rule that would let employers keep employee tips in excess of the minimum wage) draw Congressional disapproval; if anyone's paying attention to you, it's a Bad Sign.
It should be noted that Elaine Chao is also Mrs. Mitch McConnell. Whether this provides an extra degree of protection or an extra factor of liability for retaining her cabinet post is in the judgment of the viewer.
Last to go: Jeff Sessions.
And the Americans accuse everyone else of nepotism!
Next to go: Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis (because he won't be able to work with known hot-head John Bolton).
Last Secretary Standing: Ben Carson. Trump likes picking on people, and Carson is a great target.
Everybody gets to pick a new "Next To Go". If you picked wrong and don't post something to change your "Next To Go" your previous prediction will stand. If you picked right and don't choose someone new it counts as not having a pick (worth 0 points). The deadline to make a new selection is whenever the next (original) cabinet secretary leaves.
The current scoreboard:
@Ariston 11
@Barnabas62 11
@Crœsos 11
@Hedgehog 11
If you have points, the clock is ticking for your next pick. Here's the revised list, for reference:
My prediction for Next To Go is Ben Carson.
She's Mitch McConnell's wife.
You can't change your "last standing" once you've picked it. See the rules.
Also, while the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency is a "cabinet-level" position, it's not technically part of the cabinet so Scott Pruitt isn't included in the contest.
Now, next to go: Wilbur Ross, Commerce Secretary, is likely to end up in nick over his Cyprus connections, and a new batch of indictments is coming in a few weeks (which is a long time in anyone's politics), so I'll plump for him.
That would make Sessions the next Secretary to exit, so that's my pick . And for last survivor I pick Ms Chao, as being the wife of a prominent Republican should offer her some protection.
Now that I am awake (I think, otherwise this is getting really weird) I felt obligated to go change my nominee for next to go, but I see that's against the rules so I must stick with Sessions.
I really do think there should be an exception to the 'no changes' rule if you get a message from God. However, that has not happened to me. Rather, I think it is something much more strange and awful. I think that Trump and I have some sort of connection, sort of like the connection between Harry Potter and Voldemort. I think I was dreaming Trump's dream, leaking in through my own, and that it was him dreaming about how great it would be to see a report on the news about him sacking Steve Mnuchin.
Pity me, dear reader.
As is becoming traditional with this administration* Pruitt's departure was announced via Trump's twitter feed.