The UK Prime Minister
alienfromzog
Shipmate
Mrs May is set to announce her 'departure timetable' today. Whatever that means. Assuming Chris Grayling can't be in charge of delivering said timetable, that means that the UK will get a new Prime Minister soon.
For those who don't know, the UK Prime Minister is whoever can command majority support in the House of Commons. When a party has an overall majority, this is straightforwardly the leader of that party hence the smooth transitions from Thatcher to Major and Blair to Brown in recent times. Quite what happens when there is no majority and no coalition is an open question.
There are at least two possibilities: it could be that a new Conservative leader takes over and with DUP support, the Tories will continue in power. There could be a general election soon if the DUP decide not to continue their support.
The internal Conservative leader election process involves a series of run-off elections in the Parliamentary Party until there are only two candidates left and then the vote goes to the membership. It is worth noting at this point that the ~60,000* membership is both more right-wing and more Euro-skeptic than the parliamentary party. Notwithstanding the considerations above, it is quite likely that this 0.13% of the electorate will be choosing our next Prime Minister...
So, who's it going to be?
AFZ
*The exact membership of the Conservative Party is unknown as the party has refused to publish the figures for several years. It is known to be less than 100,000 and ~60,000 is the best recent estimate I know of. There are rumors that the membership numbers have fallen further in the last weeks.
For those who don't know, the UK Prime Minister is whoever can command majority support in the House of Commons. When a party has an overall majority, this is straightforwardly the leader of that party hence the smooth transitions from Thatcher to Major and Blair to Brown in recent times. Quite what happens when there is no majority and no coalition is an open question.
There are at least two possibilities: it could be that a new Conservative leader takes over and with DUP support, the Tories will continue in power. There could be a general election soon if the DUP decide not to continue their support.
The internal Conservative leader election process involves a series of run-off elections in the Parliamentary Party until there are only two candidates left and then the vote goes to the membership. It is worth noting at this point that the ~60,000* membership is both more right-wing and more Euro-skeptic than the parliamentary party. Notwithstanding the considerations above, it is quite likely that this 0.13% of the electorate will be choosing our next Prime Minister...
So, who's it going to be?
AFZ
*The exact membership of the Conservative Party is unknown as the party has refused to publish the figures for several years. It is known to be less than 100,000 and ~60,000 is the best recent estimate I know of. There are rumors that the membership numbers have fallen further in the last weeks.
Tagged:
Comments
So to avoid Boris, two people need to beat him in the MPs' selection process, because if he goes forward to the membership he's home and dry.
Is it a poisoned chalice anyway?
Please no.
Obviously two short planks would make a better leader than Johnson, but the present Tory party has a short plank shortage.
Best wishes, Team UK.
Sorry if this is a tangent, but how do you feel about her going in the middle of this?
Yours,
Astounded from the Colonies.
Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Sajid Javid
Jeremy Hunt
Dominic Raab
Amber Rudd
Matt Hancock
AFZ
Too true 😢
Indeed.
At some point in this thread, I suspect I will be explaining why Jeremy Hunt is totally unsuited to this role. What's stopping me, is damning though I believe this analysis to be, it does not make him necessarily worse than the competition...
AFZ
Until recently I thought the parliamentary party would try to keep him out. But the other day I read an article suggesting that moderate Tories are more scared of Raab than of Johnson. Johnson will vary his views to suit his company, and is quite capable of going full-on hard Brexit for the membership and pivoting to something softer when he depends on his MPs' cooperation - whereas Raab is hard Brexit all the way.
Were they to go for Boris, they would get all 3 in one fell swoop - a rogue, a fanatic and when all is said and done, a real non-entity. He'd make May look good.
We should have a Ship sweepstake
I refer the honourable Martian the comments I made some moments ago...
Then, send him on a 'diplomatic' trip to Russia, where he will surely make some rude remark about Uncle Vlad, or the terrifying Maria Zakharova.
He will, hopefully, then promptly be consigned to a special camp in Siberia, where they teach people about Proper Haircuts, and will never be seen in Ukland again.
Time for my pills, I think.....
The thought of Bojo the Clown, or Niggle the Garbage, being in charge is enough to make one wish for Everlasting Oblivion.
Come over from Macedonia (or wherever) and help us!
Agreed.
Huh. Do you recall "Trump wouldn't be as bad as Cruz, he'd definitely pivot after the primaries..."
I cannot see anyone other than Boris being the next Conservative leader.... and hence Prime Minister, I guess... although hopefully not for too long...
Is this the first time in recent history that a sitting Prime Minister has announced their resignation ahead of time? This seems to leave May as a positively paralytic, let alone lame duck for the next ten days or so.
Let's assume Boris is one of the final 2... at that point, the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition should table a Vote of No Confidence. Having in the meantime persuaded the DUP not to vote with the government...
Then Boris becomes Tory leader as Parliament is dissolved, and never Prime Minister! (Allowing for the machinations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act).
Just a thought....
AFZ
Indeed not, this isn't America: ten years. With a no deal Brexit October 31st. Making us the 51st state.
Thatcher was rather similar, although she went through a leadership election, which she won. But colleagues made her an offer she couldn't refuse, I think.
Unfortunately I think Mr Johnson, who isn't stupid in matters of his own advancement, has already thought of that, and gone out of his way to cosy up to the DUP (he spoke at their conference IIRC).
It's a good point but the DUP are just as ruthless as he is and they'll not support him for nothing. I think they will realise that he cannot deliver what they want. OTOH that doesn't mean they would help to bring the government down.
AFZ
My current bet for the run off is Graham Brady versus Rory Stewart - as everybody else self-immolates like last time.
The 'Nasty Party' is at its nastiest when tearing at its own entrails.
Corbyn's got a chance if Johnson wins and I suspect many Tories know that - but they are arrogant enough to overlook the obvious.
I hope for the UK's sake you're right. Johnson is so obviously not a bright man playing the buffoon but rather just a buffoon. Not sure if he's better or worse than Trump but they may well be cousins.
Depends on your definition of recent, but my recollection is that Churchill gave a bit of notice, certainly enough for farewell dinners to be organised etc.