Break Glass - 2020 USA Elections

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Comments

  • stetson wrote: »
    I'm seeing a worrying number of "Is Biden corrupt?" stories suddenly sprouting in the media.

    What's interesting is that such stories seem confined to the further reaches of the right wing fever swamp. Legitimate conservative news organizations (e.g. Wall Street Journal) are showing no interest in obviously fabricated accounts and even the semi-legitimate right wing media (e.g. Fox News) seem to be losing interest. This is quite a change from the breathlessness with which even non-partisan media reported on John Podesta's scandalous risotto recipe in 2016.

    I don't think the American media has really made a full accounting of the way their personal hatred of Hillary Clinton affected their judgment.
  • stetson wrote: »
    So by what logic is Nigel Farage the King Of Europe? Isn't that kinda like calling Mohandas Gandhi the King Of England?

    ????Huh????
  • I just assumed @stetson's comments were intended for another thread and accidentally posted here.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited October 2020
    Golden Key wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    So by what logic is Nigel Farage the King Of Europe? Isn't that kinda like calling Mohandas Gandhi the King Of England?

    ????Huh????

    Punch line explained...

    At a rally in Arizona the other day, Trump introduced Farage as "the King Of Europe". Given that Farage wants to end European influence in the UK, calling him by that title is as absurd as calling Mohandas Gandhi the King Of England.
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    Maybe it would have been cheaper to just mess with the cable feed to the TVs in the West Wing.
    stetson wrote: »
    I'm seeing a worrying number of "Is Biden corrupt?" stories suddenly sprouting in the media.
    Care to provide examples? Seems like they’d have to be pretty dramatic to make a difference at this point.
  • Dave W wrote: »
    Maybe it would have been cheaper to just mess with the cable feed to the TVs in the West Wing.
    stetson wrote: »
    I'm seeing a worrying number of "Is Biden corrupt?" stories suddenly sprouting in the media.
    Care to provide examples? Seems like they’d have to be pretty dramatic to make a difference at this point.

    Well, the National Post in Canada is reporting that UPS claims to have found the lost package that Tucker Carlson sez contains damaging evidence against Biden. And they're also reporting that Glenn Greenwald is going around saying that he's been censored in his reporting about Hunter Biden.

    I'm getting echoes of Comey 2016 here. Caveat that the Post was founded by, and still has close ties with, Conrad Black, aka Lord Black Of Crossharbour, a press baron and convicted embezzler who, after penning a few hagiographic op-eds about his old pal Donald J, managed to swing a presidential pardon.

    I assumed this Hunter-stuff was being reported with similar prominence in the USA. Maybe not?
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    I think even Fox News is getting fed up. Don Jr spouted such horseshit about COVID-19 deaths in an interview that even Laura Ingraham was embarrassed.

    The Trump campaign is showing increasing signs of desperation. The cry wolf phenomenon is now haunting them. It’s the price you pay for telling lies. The virus is the fact checker in the battleground States.
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    I suppose it could still turn out that Biden does not follow best practice email management.
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    So by what logic is Nigel Farage the King Of Europe? Isn't that kinda like calling Mohandas Gandhi the King Of England?
    India is not part of England, whereas the two countries of which Farage is a citizen, the UK and Germany, are both parts of Europe just as Switzerland and Norway are.

    (Also, why are we expecting anything close to logic from Trump?)
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    Dave W wrote: »
    Maybe it would have been cheaper to just mess with the cable feed to the TVs in the West Wing.
    stetson wrote: »
    I'm seeing a worrying number of "Is Biden corrupt?" stories suddenly sprouting in the media.
    Care to provide examples? Seems like they’d have to be pretty dramatic to make a difference at this point.

    Well, the National Post in Canada is reporting that UPS claims to have found the lost package that Tucker Carlson sez contains damaging evidence against Biden. And they're also reporting that Glenn Greenwald is going around saying that he's been censored in his reporting about Hunter Biden.

    I'm getting echoes of Comey 2016 here. Caveat that the Post was founded by, and still has close ties with, Conrad Black, aka Lord Black Of Crossharbour, a press baron and convicted embezzler who, after penning a few hagiographic op-eds about his old pal Donald J, managed to swing a presidential pardon.

    I assumed this Hunter-stuff was being reported with similar prominence in the USA. Maybe not?
    I heard a reference to Tucker Carlson's lost mail on a comedy show, but I think the mainstream media already discounts sudden revelations from Fox opinion show hosts. And I think very few people are going to get exercised about possible unfairness in the editorial practices of The Intercept.

    Comey's 2016 letter was newsworthy because he was the director of the FBI, not a Fox blowhard or fringe gadfly. If the Trump administration was going to come out with an official-looking bombshell, I don't think they'd wait until the weekend before the election, since a lot of people have already voted and there won't be much time to do real reporting on it. The right-wing media isn't likely to convince anyone who isn't already a Trump supporter, and the mainstream media is too used to hearing lies from the Trump camp to automatically treat their attacks as credible.
  • Consider the source of the disinformation about Biden. Tucker Carlson is hardly an unbiased reporter nor is Fox News. Actually, it is more than that. This letter states that the tdisinformation is a classic Russian ploy
  • I really really really wish Tucker Carlson was a very funny joke. It is a testament to the upside down world of right wing American politics that he has a show on TV. Alex Jones otoh could never be regarded as a joke. He needs to be pilloried, the old fashioned way.
  • Dafyd wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    So by what logic is Nigel Farage the King Of Europe? Isn't that kinda like calling Mohandas Gandhi the King Of England?
    India is not part of England, whereas the two countries of which Farage is a citizen, the UK and Germany, are both parts of Europe just as Switzerland and Norway are.

    (Also, why are we expecting anything close to logic from Trump?)

    True, but as a conservative estimate, 80% of the time when the word "Europe" is used in regards to Farage, it refers to the EU.

    So, not a direct contradiction if Trump meant "the most popular politician on the European continent", but still a pretty awkward phrasing. "The King Of England" would have been a much more resonant description for both his views and his position.

  • stetson wrote: »
    Just saw on CBC that Bobby Orr has endorsed Trump.

    I'm guessing this is a bigger story in Canada than in the country that's actually holding the election.

    Evidence of brain injury?
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited October 2020
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Consider the source of the disinformation about Biden. Tucker Carlson is hardly an unbiased reporter nor is Fox News. Actually, it is more than that. This letter states that the tdisinformation is a classic Russian ploy

    A libel lawsuit against Tucker Carlson was dismissed recently after Fox News successfully argued that no one would believe anything Carlson said.
    Golden Key wrote: »

    Well, Hillary Clinton is a private citizen now, not a "Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States", which is the sole Constitutional requirement for being a presidential elector.
  • stetson wrote: »
    Just saw on CBC that Bobby Orr has endorsed Trump.

    I'm guessing this is a bigger story in Canada than in the country that's actually holding the election.

    Evidence of brain injury?

    Despite playing the de facto national sport of The Best Part Of North America, hockey players don't always seem to follow the most enlightened politics.

    Bobby Hull got himself Gotcha-ed in the '90s making supposedly pro-nazi statements to a Russian newspaper(he denied it), and somewhat less dramatically, the Great One himself came out publically in favour of Stephen Harper back during that man's tenure.

    And of course, we've had Harold Ballard inciting the fans at the Gardens to boo the Russian team, Don Cherry passim etc.
  • If any Shipmates or lurkers live in Florida, New York, or the parts of Wisconsin that have early voting on the weekends and are intending on taking advantage of early voting, this is a reminder that tomorrow (1 November 2020) is the last day for doing so. Election Day voting (3 November 2020) will still be available to you, of course, if you don't vote early.

    Today (31 October 2020) is the last day for early voting in North Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Virginia, and West Virginia.
  • jedijudyjedijudy Heaven Host, 8th Day Host
    This Floridian received a mail in ballot. I hand delivered my parents' ballots along with mine, and they were marked as being received weeks ago.
    Where I live, there are trump signs and flags all over the place. Hopefully there are more people in other parts of the state who agree with me that Biden needs to be our next President. It's not sounding good right now. :cold_sweat:
  • Be careful about any election signs or flags, whose ever they are, and whoever they're for. Lots of news stories of...well..."sign rage"? (Like road rage.)
  • Croesos--
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Golden Key wrote: »

    Well, Hillary Clinton is a private citizen now, not a "Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States", which is the sole Constitutional requirement for being a presidential elector.

    Yes, but it's so hilariously ironic! I wonder whether she somehow applied/asked for the job, or someone thought she deserved it ('cause 2016), or it was a total coincidence?

    Go get 'em, Hillary! : ) With grace and with style, and a dose of good humor!
  • Golden Key wrote: »
    Be careful about any election signs or flags, whose ever they are, and whoever they're for. Lots of news stories of...well..."sign rage"? (Like road rage.)

    My friends in Sacramento got their pro-Hills sign shot up in the last Presidential election. They also got a bullet in their car for their troubles. Jedijudy, you have done your bit. Let's hope the rest of Florida and the country does too.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    538 forecast shows Biden 90% likely to win, with 348 EC votes and a 7.9 popular vote lead.

    I’ve fiddled about with the permutations, given Trump all the States he leads in, plus Florida, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, in all of which Biden is shown to have small leads. Biden still wins if he wins Pennsylvania plus all the other States he leads in. In that scenario, you can bet the Pennsylvania vote gets challenged up to the SC.

    Put another way, Trump needs the margin of error in the polls to work even more favourably for him than it did in 2016. Or a late surge among those who have not yet voted. Some 90 million have.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth Mystery Worship Editor
    Golden Key wrote: »
    Be careful about any election signs or flags, whose ever they are, and whoever they're for. Lots of news stories of...well..."sign rage"? (Like road rage.)

    Miss Amanda confesses that the temptation has crossed her mind to attack election signs for you-know-who and his toady with a flame thrower. :flushed:
  • An excellent line from Jo Biden today -

    “As president, I’ll build an economy that rewards work — not just wealth.”
  • I don't have that much confidence in Biden to enact the platform, even if the Dems control Congress. But that is a question for a new thread come 2021.
  • Golden Key wrote: »
    Be careful about any election signs or flags, whose ever they are, and whoever they're for. Lots of news stories of...well..."sign rage"? (Like road rage.)

    Miss Amanda confesses that the temptation has crossed her mind to attack election signs for you-know-who and his toady with a flame thrower. :flushed:
    Golden Key wrote: »
    Be careful about any election signs or flags, whose ever they are, and whoever they're for. Lots of news stories of...well..."sign rage"? (Like road rage.)

    Miss Amanda confesses that the temptation has crossed her mind to attack election signs for you-know-who and his toady with a flame thrower. :flushed:

  • Which toady in particular? Thinking of you all
    In the worst Presidential election ever🙀....
  • Did Miss Amanda perhaps mean Nigel Garbage Farrago Farage?

    If so, would Miss Amanda please receive (via cyberspace) this free can of Very Inflammable Gasoline/Petrol, her flamethrower for the use of?

    Along with the grateful thanks of the *English* public, who have had just about enough of the egregious toad-faced Git.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth Mystery Worship Editor
    Miss Amanda has been chastised for calling you-know-who by such names as the Fartletter-in-Chief or the Contaminator-in-Chief, so she'll stick with you-know-who for now. She refuses to utter his real name or dirty her fingers typing it.

    And the toady, of course, is the one who will take his place and issue a pardon once he resigns just before Inauguration Day.
  • Ah - I see.

    Well, the free can of Virtual Gasoline is still on offer, if required (which God forbid, of course).

    Our beloved Nigel has been in the *English* news recently, supporting your dear POTUS in his hour of need...
  • If any Shipmates or lurkers live in Florida, New York, or the parts of Wisconsin that have early voting on the weekends and are intending on taking advantage of early voting, this is a reminder that today (1 November 2020) is the last day for doing so. Election Day voting (3 November 2020) will still be available to you, of course, if you don't vote early.
  • UKland news reports that the level of postal voting is quite high. Is this, I wonder, a good sign for The Day?
  • UKland news reports that the level of postal voting is quite high. Is this, I wonder, a good sign for The Day?
    As I understand it, it entirely depends on when the ballots were posted. The machinations of the Trump appointed Postmaster have not helped an already burdened service and ones mailed too late will be at risk of not being counted. And will certainly add to the mayhem of Trump appears to be losing on 3 Nov.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    I’ve fiddled about with the permutations, given Trump all the States he leads in, plus Florida, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, in all of which Biden is shown to have small leads. Biden still wins if he wins Pennsylvania plus all the other States he leads in. In that scenario, you can bet the Pennsylvania vote gets challenged up to the SC.

    The challenges are already underway. The Supreme Court recently issued an opinion that, while not actually doing so, indicated a willingness to throw out ballots that were legally cast under the voting rules existing at the time those ballots were cast.
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    Put another way, Trump needs the margin of error in the polls to work even more favourably for him than it did in 2016. Or a late surge among those who have not yet voted. Some 90 million have.

    The general rule in American elections is that Republicans bat last. Usually this is because rural areas, which tend to be more Republican, are slower in reporting their election returns than more urban areas. This year there's the added animus the Trump campaign has cultivated among its followers for mail-in balloting.
    UKland news reports that the level of postal voting is quite high. Is this, I wonder, a good sign for The Day?

    Early voting, not just postal voting. As of right now 93.3 million Americans have cast ballots in the 2020 election, 59.3 million by mail and 34.0 million in person at early polling stations. For reference that's equal to about two-thirds of all ballots cast in 2016. Texas has already received more early votes than it did total votes in 2016. (So has Hawaii, but they conduct their elections entirely by mail so that's not so surprising.) This may end up being the first national election when more Americans voted early than on Election Day itself.

    I suspect given the high turnout in early voting this year we're going to eventually conclude that forcing people to stand in line for hours on a workday to cast their ballot has been the most successful voter suppression tactic in American history.
  • Well, a high turnout is surely a good thing - as long as all votes are properly counted!

    (And, of course, as long as more voted for Mr Biden than for the other chap...).
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    For reference, here's a list of American states that have exceeded 75% of their 2016 vote totals two days before "Election Day":
    • Hawaii* 110.6%
    • Texas 107.8%
    • Montana 98.8%
    • Washington* 97.9%
    • North Carolina 95.0%
    • Georgia 93.7%
    • New Mexico 93.2%
    • Nevada 91.2%
    • Florida 90.8%
    • Tennessee 89.6%
    • Oregon* 87.8%
    • Colorado* 86.7%
    • Arizona 86.5%
    • New Jersey 79.6%
    • Utah* 78.9%
    • Vermont 76.4%

    States marked in bold are widely considered to be swing states in the 2020 presidential election.

    Generally speaking, the higher the turnout in an election the better Democratic candidates do. This probably explains the general Republican antipathy towards the franchise.


    *All mail-in election state.
  • jedijudyjedijudy Heaven Host, 8th Day Host
    I just checked the Supervisor of Elections site in my county. My vote and those of my parents have been counted!!
  • Wheeeee, o mighty jedi! :)
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Trump 'vigilantes' on the roads. Polls tightening in key battlegrounds. Trump waves trial balloon about early claim.

    Looks like a critical couple of days ahead. Hoping for the best for the USA.
  • Thx, Barnabas.
  • Will pressure from family (eg parent on voting-age offspring) have much effect on mail-in votes? It's bound to happen (eg "just let me check your ballot form before you send it as you're new to this" or worse) but have there been cases reported? Also there could be fraud of a ballot form 'going astray' in the household and being fraudulently filled in and sent in the voter's name. 'cos he's young and doesn't understand what's at stake; let's MAGA!
  • Also there could be fraud of a ballot form 'going astray' in the household and being fraudulently filled in and sent in the voter's name. 'cos he's young and doesn't understand what's at stake; let's MAGA!

    It's possible, though most states require a signature on the outside of the envelope which is then checked against the signature on file with the state (typically from a driver's license or your voter registration form). I suppose forgery is also possible if a household member is determined enough.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Based on latest polls and using their simulations model, 538 is now declaring Joe Biden as the clear favourite. Crucially 538 is showing Biden with a lead of over 5% in Pennsylvania and slightly improved leads in Arizona and Florida.

    I think the issue in Pennsylvania is that the mailed in votes will be counted after the others. It is possible that Trump may be shown initially to be in the lead and may retain that until the mailed in votes begin to turn the tide. But if Biden is ahead before that, it’s probably all over. And it’s certainly all over if Biden wins Florida.

    Everything crossed for a clear Biden win and a peaceful transition. The USA both needs and deserves better.
  • Indeed.

    This is probably a silly question, but if Mr Biden draws ahead quite quickly (as, please God, he will), could he declare himself the winner at that point?

    Or IOW, if Trump thinks he can do it, could Mr Biden do the same?

    Mind you, I dread to think what the immediate consequences might be, so it's a hypothetical question...
  • Indeed.

    This is probably a silly question, but if Mr Biden draws ahead quite quickly (as, please God, he will), could he declare himself the winner at that point?

    Or IOW, if Trump thinks he can do it, could Mr. Biden do the same?

    Mind you, I dread to think what the immediate consequences might be, so it's a hypothetical question...

    Traditionally, the person that is elected will wait until he gets a concession call from his opponent. But this is not a traditional election.

    Trump may just jump ahead and declare he has won as soon as the Eastern Time Zone polls close in order to try to suppress the vote in states in the latter Time Zones.

    Trump will not go down without a fight (in the courts, at least) but my bet is that he will sorely lose the court challenges.

    I think the greatest fear is that the militias pledged to him will try to interfere. They already harassed a bus dedicated to the Biden campaign in Texas and blocked traffic on a freeway between New York and New Jersey. But I think if they do act up, they will be facing a military that is dedicated to defending the constitution. Their little pea shooters will not have much effect on tanks and armored personnel carriers.

    In the end, we will know by 6 January when the electoral votes are counted.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Latest bookmakers odds I saw online were Biden 8/15 (i.e odds on), Trump 15/8 with the majority of the late money going for Trump.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    In the end, we will know by 6 January when the electoral votes are counted.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if the court fights and Republican shenanigans continue right until this point. I expect there will be sporadic violence for several months at least.

    One thing I find interesting, and sad, is that some liberals are apparently among those buying guns. I suppose they've decided they need them for self-defense, if everything goes to shit.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Ruth wrote: »
    One thing I find interesting, and sad, is that some liberals are apparently among those buying guns. I suppose they've decided they need them for self-defense, if everything goes to shit.
    That's my biggest concern, that this will degenerate into widespread civil unrest. And I place all the blame for that risk on President Trump's divisive and aggressive rhetoric. The dog whistle, blown for those who attacked the Biden bus and those like them, struck a new low, even for him.
This discussion has been closed.