In Georgia Trump's margin over Biden is decreasing but not I think fast enough for Biden to win there. But if my sums are right if Biden picks up the same percentage of late votes in Pennsylvania and North Carolina he'll win them. (I say late votes, but they're votes posted early and counted late.)
Biden now seems certain to have won in both Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as in Nevada and Arizona. I think that wraps it up for him. Even if Trump wins in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, he still loses in the Electoral College.
Have the chickens fully emerged and are all ready for counting, or are there any eggs still sitting in the nest? (I thought there were a few states with unhatched chicks) Is there a source which says the chickens have all hatched and are crossing to the other side of the road? Will any be hit while crossing? Will their entrails be readable if squashed by tires? Is a car-hit chicken edible?
...It’s certainly not a route I foresaw. I couldn’t see him winning Arizona and losing Pennsylvania...
Arizona has changed quite a bit in recent years, I'm happy to say. We were slowly going from red to purple, and now we're definitely headed for blue. The same Republican who lost the Senate two years ago was then appointed by our idiot Republican Governor to fill McCain's term in the Senate, and yesterday she ran for the seat again -- and lost! We were pretty much predicted to elect a Democrat for Senator and to go for Biden for President -- which is why both candidates and their running mates and family members spent so much time in Arizona lately, In the past it's been so red there was little point in campaigning here.
Wisconsin will be subject to a recount. At least that’s the Trump pronouncement. No doubt lawyers will be in as well.
Given the projected Biden victory there, what else could Trump do?
For reference, a recount in 2016 increased Trump's vote count by 131 votes. Biden's current lead in Wisconsin is ~20,000 votes, which is 0.6 percentage points of all ballots counted so far and approximately equal to the Trump's 2016 margin in the state.
Trump is now accusing electoral officials of possible corruption and colluding with the Democrats. It's one thing to lie about polital opponents, but now he is endangering innocent people doing there jobs, some of whom are his own voters. Is there no legal way these dangerous lies can be prevented?
This indicates a strongly divided America, one in which people will vote against their own best interests because of fear and racism.
Oh, give me a break. We didn't need this election to tell us that.
Even if Biden wins, his ability to get things done will be severely hampered.
He won't get significant legislation through Congress, no. But he can get some important things done. He can rebuild the State Department, the EPA, etc etc -- the apparatus of the administration will be under his control. He'll be in charge of the IRS, which can then go back to auditing the uber-rich. He'll be in charge of the post office. Things like this will mean a lot. His administration will roll out the covid vaccine. It will be in charge of a wide variety of things: fuel economy standards, what happens to Dreamers, refugees, and asylum-seekers, foreign policy. The US will be back in the Paris climate accords.
America is no shining city on a hill, but a dank cave in a foetid swamp.
He could have accepted the result with dignity and congratulated his oppon...hahahahahahahahaha! Yes, sorry, of course you are right @Crœsos.
Seriously though I would not rely on Nevada going for Biden. There are still a lot of votes uncounted there and at least some of them will be MAGA chickens.
It struck me as pretty much like a biblical prophet warning the Children of Israel. My brief quote is me listening and typing:
"America is not unique in its sins. We're not unique in our evils.... Where we may be singular is our refusal to acknowledge them, and the legends and myths we tell about our inherent goodness, to hide, cover and conceal, to maintain a wilful ignorance that ptotects our innocence.". {listening to the rest is worthy}
He goes on to say that the "tea party" (which I understand is parallel to the trump party) was the first indicator of the problem, and people didn't listen to social scientists. That trump and tea is about anxieties about demographic shifts, particularly about racially ambiguous people. The the country wasn't feeling like a white nation any longer. That it isn't about economic anxieties, that it's about race. He says Americans are facing their sorry underbelly of themselves (I'd dare say all of our "white Christian" nations are facing the same things; I know it's here in Saskatchewan, Canada). He says "this is us!" not just trump. That trump cannot be blamed, because he's the manifestation of the evil within the society, in us.
Maine's 2nd Congressional District and it's one electoral vote have been projected in favor of Donald Trump.
Assuming the projections are accurate, the states still undetermined are:
Michigan (16) Biden +0.7 pp
Nevada (6) Biden +0.6 pp
North Carolina (15) Trump +1.4 pp
Georgia (16) Trump +1.7 pp
Pennsylvania (20) Trump +7.7 pp
Alaska (3) Trump +29.9 pp
Biden needs 22 electoral votes to win at this point (again, assuming the projections are accurate) while Trump needs 56. If we assume Trump wins Alaska then Biden will win the election if he wins any two-state combination remaining on that list other than Nevada/North Carolina, which would be an electoral college tie.
The blue-shift in Pennsylvania is something astounding though.
Most of the votes being counted in Pennsylvania at this point are mail-in ballots, which lean heavily Democratic for reasons already discussed. If you compare the list above with my last compilation you'll note a similar but less dramatic shift in Michigan as well. That's because most of the vote is already in, but the exceptions are Kent Count (where Grand Rapids is located), Antrim County (total population ~23,000), and Wayne County (a.k.a. Detroit). Kent County is fairly close but slightly Trump-favoring at this point. Wayne County is . . . strongly Democratic, so it seems likely the Bidenward drift of Michigan's vote margin will continue.
Have the chickens fully emerged and are all ready for counting, or are there any eggs still sitting in the nest? (I thought there were a few states with unhatched chicks) Is there a source which says the chickens have all hatched and are crossing to the other side of the road? Will any be hit while crossing? Will their entrails be readable if squashed by tires? Is a car-hit chicken edible?
Different kind of election. The special election was what's referred to as a "jungle primary" or "Louisiana-style primary" or a bunch of other colorful descriptors. More than 40% of the Georgia electorate (as of the current tabulation) voted for someone other than Warnock or Loeffler.
Fair point - I didn't spot the other Democrats further down the ballot. Any Dem vs Any GOP split almost identically to Ossof / Perdue (3.5 points in favour of the Republicans), which shouldn't surprise.
Biden is live on the WaPo website now in a speech - bascially saying that he has won, but not declaring it.
Is this a necessary thing? What do Shipmates think? It sounded a bit weird to this Urpian!
I didn't hear it, but given that Trump declared his victory last night late (durrrrrrrrr) it probably makes some sense to say, "No, actually..." and state his own understanding--but not to do it officially (i.e. declare it) for fear of looking exactly the sort of pushy, obnoxious toad the other guy is.
CNN just called Michigan for Biden. Give him Nevada, now, and it's all over. Which is leaning blue.
Interestingly, Trump is demanding that vote counting STOP in Michigan, at least for a while (assorted silly justifications follow). It reminds me irresistably of a criminal being carried off through a door, his fingers clutching on to every tiny handhold, just to drag out the time before the slammer shuts on him.
Interesting points, LC and also BF. Thank you for the insights.
The WaPo live stream comment people appear to be more or less of the same opinion: it seems all about putting forward the contrast between the two candidates, and to be frank, it was good to hear someone reasonably reasonable in a speech, for a change!
Biden almost there; Trump having conniptions, but I suppose he can drag this out for weeks. Saw him on TV, ghastly impression of a low grade hood squealing.
If he's got any sense (and he seems to), this is the time to start the "president for ALL the people" and "let the healing begin." And to put reality behind the platitudes, because for every president, it's all downhill from Inauguration Day.
Assuming the projections are accurate, the states still undetermined are:
Michigan (16) Biden +0.7 pp
Nevada (6) Biden +0.6 pp
North Carolina (15) Trump +1.4 pp
Georgia (16) Trump +1.7 pp
Pennsylvania (20) Trump +7.7 pp
Alaska (3) Trump +29.9 pp
Biden needs 22 electoral votes to win at this point (again, assuming the projections are accurate) while Trump needs 56.
As you say, there's no real doubt that Trump will win Alaska. Of the rest, Michigan is pretty much locked in for Biden (the votes that haven't been counted yet almost certainly skew Democratic), and it seems unlikely to me that there's enough skew in the uncounted votes to push either Georgia or North Carolina into Biden's camp (not impossible, but ....*)
So realistically, I'm expecting to see Biden needing 6 votes, and Trump needing 22, with only Nevada and Pennsylvania still in play. Either one is enough for Biden, whereas Trump needs both.
In Nevada, Biden has about an 8000 vote lead, with something on the scale of 150,000 votes still to come. Nevada won't say anything till tomorrow afternoon. The missing votes are a combination of provisional votes and mailed-in ballots arriving recently. I'd expect that group to tend Democratic, although this is an unusual year on many fronts.
As far as Pennsylvania goes, Trump is currently a bit more than 300,000 votes ahead, with something over a million votes still to come. So Biden needs about a 70-30 split in the missing votes to win Pennsylvania. That's within the realms of plausibility. As @Crœsos says, we've discussed the fact that these ballots are likely to skew heavily Democratic. I think PA is still too close to call either way.
*If this did happen to happen, Biden would win, but this looks very much like an outside chance at the moment.
Different kind of election. The special election was what's referred to as a "jungle primary" or "Louisiana-style primary" or a bunch of other colorful descriptors. More than 40% of the Georgia electorate (as of the current tabulation) voted for someone other than Warnock or Loeffler.
Fair point - I didn't spot the other Democrats further down the ballot. Any Dem vs Any GOP split almost identically to Ossof / Perdue (3.5 points in favour of the Republicans), which shouldn't surprise.
For the record - that wasn't me.
Too true. I have corrected the attribution in Leorning Cniht‘s post and in your quotation of it here. BroJames, Purgatory Host
Biden needs 6 electoral votes to win at this point (again, assuming the projections are accurate) while Trump needs 56. Any state off that list other than Alaska will give Biden a victory whereas Trump essentially has to sweep them all.
Previous list here. Note again the big shift in Pennsylvania.
*Will accept mailed ballots received after Election Day provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day.
As far as Pennsylvania goes, Trump is currently a bit more than 300,000 votes ahead, with something over a million votes still to come. So Biden needs about a 70-30 split in the missing votes to win Pennsylvania. That's within the realms of plausibility. As @Crœsos says, we've discussed the fact that these ballots are likely to skew heavily Democratic. I think PA is still too close to call either way.
Note that mailed votes in Pennsylvania have until Friday to arrive, so things might be too close to call in PA until late Friday. Also note that Biden won almost 80% of the early mailed ballot, so if he also wins 80% of the late arrivals, he's on track to overtake Trump and squeak a narrow victory.
The NY Times has some interesting graphs of vote share vs time in the count here. It's tempting to extrapolate those lines to the 100% mark, which would have Biden winning in Pennsylvania and Georgia, whilst losing North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, but that would be a mistake.
If he's got any sense (and he seems to), this is the time to start the "president for ALL the people" and "let the healing begin." And to put reality behind the platitudes, because for every president, it's all downhill from Inauguration Day.
I heard bits of Joe's speech. It did sound a little like a victory speech, and so was iffy for me. But he did say the things you mentioned, and that all the votes need to be counted.
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
I guess the person who wagered £1 million on Biden at 8/15 is chewing fingernails.
For Biden to win both Arizona and Nevada what is required in the districts for which the votes are outstanding is a continuation of the trend lines created by votes so far in those districts. Which are favourable to Biden in both States.
Those are not foregone conclusions by any means. So we just have to await the count.
We voted end of Oct. At 60% for the same sort of shit, minus the specific TV personality of your guy, and only provincially. It's the same. It matters. The fight for justice, inclusiveness, equality, the letting go of what we think we are and owning our sins, including the ones that will hurt like hell to give up because we're doing them everyday. Because we're scared to confront our personal and collective evil, This is what is required. We don't get to hold on to any of it. 50% for you. 60% here. Or we keep harming each other.
Don't forget the Senate. It is now 48 to 48, with four undecided. If Biden wins, the Republicans will need three of those seats for a total of 51 to retain control of the Senate because Kamala Harris will be the tie-breaking vote. It is not over until it is over.
I dunno mate. I'm starting to doubt this type of analysis, which I subscribe to.
I think it might be something more basic. I think many people who vote for Trump think he's the better bet at getting their kids jobs. Not all, but I think that's behind it for many, and they just don't care enough about people outside their immediate circle, or people they don't know, to think about systemic stuff, or injustice, or anything abstract like that. The terrible racists are out there too of course.
I dunno mate. I'm starting to doubt this type of analysis, which I subscribe to.
I think it might be something more basic. I think many people who vote for Trump think he's the better bet at getting their kids jobs. Not all, but I think that's behind it for many, and they just don't care enough about people outside their immediate circle, or people they don't know, to think about systemic stuff, or injustice, or anything abstract like that. The terrible racists are out there too of course.
Current hypothesis.
I think it’s also specifically about jobs in the short-term. Trump’s in denial about COVID, so a second term means many people will die, but the economy will stumble on. Biden means second lockdown, and that means job losses.
Many people care more about their own employment than other people living or dying.
Some pollsters and political-stats people are saying their whole field/"industry" is in question. I heard that, after the 2016 mess, Nate Silber (?) of 538 re-thought *everything*, and made changes.
I'm not a stats person, at least about intricate predictions. If we're talking, say, how many and what kinds of candies, fruit, etc. are in your Halloween trick-or-treat bag, then yes, stats can be accurate and helpful.
Or, in the classic brain teaser: You are in your bedroom, getting ready for work. The power's been out for a couple of days, and you don't have a flashlight. You've managed to figure out a set of clothes. But...socks. You go to your drawer and open it. You know you have 10 pairs of navy blue socks, and 10 black. Snag: Pairs aren't bundled together, so you've got 40 individual socks in the drawer. To be sure of getting a matching pair, how many individual socks should you take from the drawer? Another time stats can be helpful.
OTOH: "Ok, we've attempted to contact 500 people in Metropolis. At 30 phones, no one picked up, and there was no answering machine. At 10 phones, we got an answering machine and left a message, but they never called us back. Of the remaining 460, 50 refused to participate, and 10 simply hung up. Of the remaining 400, all of whom participated, 100 were registered Democrats; 100 registered Republicans; 20 registered Greens; 30 registered independents; 20 registered for small, specialist parties (e.g. Natural Law); 30 with no record of ever voting; 20 are traveling tech contractors who live here but vote back home; 50 are college students who vote back home by mail; and 30 declined to state. Half had graduated high school; 1/4 didn't finish high school; 1/8 had gone or were going to college; and 1/8 declined to state.
"125 said they'll vote for Howdy Doodie; 80 for Harpo Marx; 40 for Mark Hamill; and 30 for Marilyn Monroe. However, write-in votes are illegal here, so those ballots will be tossed. For the candidates who are actually running: 125 for Biden, and 100 for the current office holder.
"Based on the responses from our group: we believe most ballots will be write-ins, and will be discarded. Of the remaining legit ballots, 55.5% will vote for Biden, and 44.5% for the current office holder."
Saying that, and presuming it's accurate, goes against my experience of people and the world. People give particular answers for all sorts of reasons, and the answers might not be what they'd say/do tomorrow, let alone on voting day. And IME particular views aren't *necessarily* held in a uniform, dependable way across a large group. So pollsters and stats people might totally miss huge swathes of demographics.
I worked with someone who was a True Believer in surveys and stats; deeply assumed that everyone would give honest, accurate answers; and was totally sure that carefully-worded questions would absolutely be understood in they way they were meant.
Not my experience of reality, either.
I realize that many people (particularly candidates, pollsters, campaign consultants, and the like) believe that polling and stats are extremely important, and vital to making decisions, and getting what they want.
But there might be patches of quicksand under what they've built.
We've had a decade, at least, of polls coming out significantly wrong - both here in the UK and in the US (and, probably elsewhere as well). We know to take polls with a handful of salt, yet the media and political parties continue to commission polls and publish them (in the case of parties, usually only when they're favourable). The polling companies seem to go through the cycle of get it wrong, make some adjustments and then get it wrong again ... but while people are paying for their product it doesn't seem that they make the big changes needed to increase accuracy - probably the biggest is to increase the number of people that they poll (that, of course, means more cost), but they need to put in the effort to address bias in responding and that's not going to be easy. I know there's a trend here (I don't know if it's replicated elsewhere) of polling businesses organising panels of responders that they return to repeatedly and give some financial inducement to participate - I suspect that paying a bit to take up a few minutes every so often might increase the number of responders, but would also introduce a whole additional set of biases in who responds.
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
Well, the uncertainty continues. Biden's margin in Arizona has narrowed significantly, looks set to continue to do so, but I think he may just hold on. Trumps margins in both Georgia and Pennsylvania have narrowed significantly, but I reckon he might just hold on. The Nevada count is stalled with Biden having a wafer thin lead. It's said that most of the outstanding votes are in districts so far favourable to Biden, so I reckon he might hold on there.
But I could be wrong four times. All four could go either way, and the full count may not be known for another few days. A number will be subject to recounts.
The legal challenges look tactical to me but may cause further delays.
The guy who bet £1 million on Biden may have no fingernails left at this point.
Stay safe USA Shipmates. All this must be hard on your nerves. My sympathies.
And while all this is going on, there were over 100 thousand new Covid-19 cases across the States yesterday. That crisis continues and looks to be getting worse while this election heads slowly to an outcome.
Comments
Are you sure about that? The Fox News website hasn't committed one way or the other (as of this posting).
Arizona, on the other hand . . .
Have the chickens fully emerged and are all ready for counting, or are there any eggs still sitting in the nest? (I thought there were a few states with unhatched chicks) Is there a source which says the chickens have all hatched and are crossing to the other side of the road? Will any be hit while crossing? Will their entrails be readable if squashed by tires? Is a car-hit chicken edible?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
Given the projected Biden victory there, what else could Trump do?
For reference, a recount in 2016 increased Trump's vote count by 131 votes. Biden's current lead in Wisconsin is ~20,000 votes, which is 0.6 percentage points of all ballots counted so far and approximately equal to the Trump's 2016 margin in the state.
Oh, give me a break. We didn't need this election to tell us that.
He won't get significant legislation through Congress, no. But he can get some important things done. He can rebuild the State Department, the EPA, etc etc -- the apparatus of the administration will be under his control. He'll be in charge of the IRS, which can then go back to auditing the uber-rich. He'll be in charge of the post office. Things like this will mean a lot. His administration will roll out the covid vaccine. It will be in charge of a wide variety of things: fuel economy standards, what happens to Dreamers, refugees, and asylum-seekers, foreign policy. The US will be back in the Paris climate accords.
So fucking tired of this kind of shit.
Seriously though I would not rely on Nevada going for Biden. There are still a lot of votes uncounted there and at least some of them will be MAGA chickens.
It struck me as pretty much like a biblical prophet warning the Children of Israel. My brief quote is me listening and typing:
"America is not unique in its sins. We're not unique in our evils.... Where we may be singular is our refusal to acknowledge them, and the legends and myths we tell about our inherent goodness, to hide, cover and conceal, to maintain a wilful ignorance that ptotects our innocence.". {listening to the rest is worthy}
He goes on to say that the "tea party" (which I understand is parallel to the trump party) was the first indicator of the problem, and people didn't listen to social scientists. That trump and tea is about anxieties about demographic shifts, particularly about racially ambiguous people. The the country wasn't feeling like a white nation any longer. That it isn't about economic anxieties, that it's about race. He says Americans are facing their sorry underbelly of themselves (I'd dare say all of our "white Christian" nations are facing the same things; I know it's here in Saskatchewan, Canada). He says "this is us!" not just trump. That trump cannot be blamed, because he's the manifestation of the evil within the society, in us.
Ah. Not so astounding after all - must have been a glitch in the Guardian numbers. I think Trump will definitely win Pennsylvania.
Assuming the projections are accurate, the states still undetermined are:
Biden needs 22 electoral votes to win at this point (again, assuming the projections are accurate) while Trump needs 56. If we assume Trump wins Alaska then Biden will win the election if he wins any two-state combination remaining on that list other than Nevada/North Carolina, which would be an electoral college tie.
Most of the votes being counted in Pennsylvania at this point are mail-in ballots, which lean heavily Democratic for reasons already discussed. If you compare the list above with my last compilation you'll note a similar but less dramatic shift in Michigan as well. That's because most of the vote is already in, but the exceptions are Kent Count (where Grand Rapids is located), Antrim County (total population ~23,000), and Wayne County (a.k.a. Detroit). Kent County is fairly close but slightly Trump-favoring at this point. Wayne County is . . . strongly Democratic, so it seems likely the Bidenward drift of Michigan's vote margin will continue.
Lay off the pond war rhetoric, please.
Barnabas62
Purgatory Host
My autocorrect changed Arizona to Alaska and I missed it. Sorry.
Only when suitably chlorine-washed I assume...
Is this a necessary thing? What do Shipmates think? It sounded a bit weird to this Urpian!
Fair point - I didn't spot the other Democrats further down the ballot. Any Dem vs Any GOP split almost identically to Ossof / Perdue (3.5 points in favour of the Republicans), which shouldn't surprise.
Corrected quote attribution. BroJames, Purgatory Host
I didn't hear it, but given that Trump declared his victory last night late (durrrrrrrrr) it probably makes some sense to say, "No, actually..." and state his own understanding--but not to do it officially (i.e. declare it) for fear of looking exactly the sort of pushy, obnoxious toad the other guy is.
BBC has Mr Biden 227/the other chap 214, so it still looks like a pretty close run thing...
Interestingly, Trump is demanding that vote counting STOP in Michigan, at least for a while (assorted silly justifications follow). It reminds me irresistably of a criminal being carried off through a door, his fingers clutching on to every tiny handhold, just to drag out the time before the slammer shuts on him.
The WaPo live stream comment people appear to be more or less of the same opinion: it seems all about putting forward the contrast between the two candidates, and to be frank, it was good to hear someone reasonably reasonable in a speech, for a change!
(WaPo has 237 to 214 right now.)
243 (Biden) to 214 (other bloke).
I'd feel better if Biden's margin in Nevada were climbing faster.
As you say, there's no real doubt that Trump will win Alaska. Of the rest, Michigan is pretty much locked in for Biden (the votes that haven't been counted yet almost certainly skew Democratic), and it seems unlikely to me that there's enough skew in the uncounted votes to push either Georgia or North Carolina into Biden's camp (not impossible, but ....*)
So realistically, I'm expecting to see Biden needing 6 votes, and Trump needing 22, with only Nevada and Pennsylvania still in play. Either one is enough for Biden, whereas Trump needs both.
In Nevada, Biden has about an 8000 vote lead, with something on the scale of 150,000 votes still to come. Nevada won't say anything till tomorrow afternoon. The missing votes are a combination of provisional votes and mailed-in ballots arriving recently. I'd expect that group to tend Democratic, although this is an unusual year on many fronts.
As far as Pennsylvania goes, Trump is currently a bit more than 300,000 votes ahead, with something over a million votes still to come. So Biden needs about a 70-30 split in the missing votes to win Pennsylvania. That's within the realms of plausibility. As @Crœsos says, we've discussed the fact that these ballots are likely to skew heavily Democratic. I think PA is still too close to call either way.
*If this did happen to happen, Biden would win, but this looks very much like an outside chance at the moment.
For the record - that wasn't me.
Too true. I have corrected the attribution in Leorning Cniht‘s post and in your quotation of it here. BroJames, Purgatory Host
Biden needs 6 electoral votes to win at this point (again, assuming the projections are accurate) while Trump needs 56. Any state off that list other than Alaska will give Biden a victory whereas Trump essentially has to sweep them all.
Previous list here. Note again the big shift in Pennsylvania.
*Will accept mailed ballots received after Election Day provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day.
There was a later correction.
Note that mailed votes in Pennsylvania have until Friday to arrive, so things might be too close to call in PA until late Friday. Also note that Biden won almost 80% of the early mailed ballot, so if he also wins 80% of the late arrivals, he's on track to overtake Trump and squeak a narrow victory.
The NY Times has some interesting graphs of vote share vs time in the count here. It's tempting to extrapolate those lines to the 100% mark, which would have Biden winning in Pennsylvania and Georgia, whilst losing North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, but that would be a mistake.
I heard bits of Joe's speech. It did sound a little like a victory speech, and so was iffy for me. But he did say the things you mentioned, and that all the votes need to be counted.
For Biden to win both Arizona and Nevada what is required in the districts for which the votes are outstanding is a continuation of the trend lines created by votes so far in those districts. Which are favourable to Biden in both States.
Those are not foregone conclusions by any means. So we just have to await the count.
The analysis perhaps isn't to anyone's liking. But trump as a symptom and not to blame: Eddie S. Glaude, a well spoken academic. I hadn't heard his sort of analysis, apparently it's been available for some years. The focus on the one man isn't where it should be. But hadn't been something I'd ever heard. Anxious white Americans don't want to let go of their vision of what they think their country is. Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/08/06/glaude_trump_the_manifestation_of_the_ugliness_in_us_must_set_people_free_from_being_white.html
And just so you know it isn't just your problem, and I get accused of anti-Americanism, this is me: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/opinion-trevor-herriot-canola-field-view-1.5783515
We voted end of Oct. At 60% for the same sort of shit, minus the specific TV personality of your guy, and only provincially. It's the same. It matters. The fight for justice, inclusiveness, equality, the letting go of what we think we are and owning our sins, including the ones that will hurt like hell to give up because we're doing them everyday. Because we're scared to confront our personal and collective evil, This is what is required. We don't get to hold on to any of it. 50% for you. 60% here. Or we keep harming each other.
I think it might be something more basic. I think many people who vote for Trump think he's the better bet at getting their kids jobs. Not all, but I think that's behind it for many, and they just don't care enough about people outside their immediate circle, or people they don't know, to think about systemic stuff, or injustice, or anything abstract like that. The terrible racists are out there too of course.
Current hypothesis.
I think it’s also specifically about jobs in the short-term. Trump’s in denial about COVID, so a second term means many people will die, but the economy will stumble on. Biden means second lockdown, and that means job losses.
Many people care more about their own employment than other people living or dying.
Some pollsters and political-stats people are saying their whole field/"industry" is in question. I heard that, after the 2016 mess, Nate Silber (?) of 538 re-thought *everything*, and made changes.
I'm not a stats person, at least about intricate predictions. If we're talking, say, how many and what kinds of candies, fruit, etc. are in your Halloween trick-or-treat bag, then yes, stats can be accurate and helpful.
Or, in the classic brain teaser: You are in your bedroom, getting ready for work. The power's been out for a couple of days, and you don't have a flashlight. You've managed to figure out a set of clothes. But...socks. You go to your drawer and open it. You know you have 10 pairs of navy blue socks, and 10 black. Snag: Pairs aren't bundled together, so you've got 40 individual socks in the drawer. To be sure of getting a matching pair, how many individual socks should you take from the drawer? Another time stats can be helpful.
OTOH: "Ok, we've attempted to contact 500 people in Metropolis. At 30 phones, no one picked up, and there was no answering machine. At 10 phones, we got an answering machine and left a message, but they never called us back. Of the remaining 460, 50 refused to participate, and 10 simply hung up. Of the remaining 400, all of whom participated, 100 were registered Democrats; 100 registered Republicans; 20 registered Greens; 30 registered independents; 20 registered for small, specialist parties (e.g. Natural Law); 30 with no record of ever voting; 20 are traveling tech contractors who live here but vote back home; 50 are college students who vote back home by mail; and 30 declined to state. Half had graduated high school; 1/4 didn't finish high school; 1/8 had gone or were going to college; and 1/8 declined to state.
"125 said they'll vote for Howdy Doodie; 80 for Harpo Marx; 40 for Mark Hamill; and 30 for Marilyn Monroe. However, write-in votes are illegal here, so those ballots will be tossed. For the candidates who are actually running: 125 for Biden, and 100 for the current office holder.
"Based on the responses from our group: we believe most ballots will be write-ins, and will be discarded. Of the remaining legit ballots, 55.5% will vote for Biden, and 44.5% for the current office holder."
Saying that, and presuming it's accurate, goes against my experience of people and the world. People give particular answers for all sorts of reasons, and the answers might not be what they'd say/do tomorrow, let alone on voting day. And IME particular views aren't *necessarily* held in a uniform, dependable way across a large group. So pollsters and stats people might totally miss huge swathes of demographics.
I worked with someone who was a True Believer in surveys and stats; deeply assumed that everyone would give honest, accurate answers; and was totally sure that carefully-worded questions would absolutely be understood in they way they were meant.
Not my experience of reality, either.
I realize that many people (particularly candidates, pollsters, campaign consultants, and the like) believe that polling and stats are extremely important, and vital to making decisions, and getting what they want.
But there might be patches of quicksand under what they've built.
FWIW, YMMV, etc.
But I could be wrong four times. All four could go either way, and the full count may not be known for another few days. A number will be subject to recounts.
The legal challenges look tactical to me but may cause further delays.
The guy who bet £1 million on Biden may have no fingernails left at this point.
Stay safe USA Shipmates. All this must be hard on your nerves. My sympathies.
And while all this is going on, there were over 100 thousand new Covid-19 cases across the States yesterday. That crisis continues and looks to be getting worse while this election heads slowly to an outcome.