Any vaccination will start to pull R down though, which will allow more wiggle room with restrictions as the % vaccinated increases.
You misspelled "help to compensate for covidiots who don't take sensible precautions"
The optimal vaccine strategy involves having everyone keep on with the same precautions during the vaccine rollout. That way, vaccines can help you have an R which is much lower than 1, and Covid incidence drops rapidly.
To my mind, vaccinated people should continue to wear masks in public, keep their distance, and not eat in restaurants until Covid is much reduced, to provide a consistent public example.
According to Worldometer, the UK 's "deaths per million" rate is now 900.
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
Week ending 12 December
Global:
Total cases: 72,092,328 (prev. 66,834,593)
New cases during the week: 5,257,735 (prev. 4,279,731)
Daily Average: 751,105 (prev. 611,390)
Total deaths: 1,610,914 (prev. 1,533,741)
New deaths during the week: 77,173 (prev. 76,203)
Daily Average: 11,025 (prev. 10,886)
Europe:
Total cases: 19,659,961 (prev. 18,273,687)
New cases during the week: 1,386,274 (prev. 1,352,910)
Daily Average: 198,039 (prev. 193,273)
Total deaths: 454,395 (prev. 420,846)
New deaths during the week: 33,549 (prev. 34,152)
Daily average: 4,793 (prev. 4,879)
USA:
Total cases: 16,549,366 (prev. 14,983,425)
New cases during the week: 1,565,941 (prev. 1,373,068)
Daily Average: 223,705 (prev. 196,153)
Total deaths: 305,082 (prev. 287,825)
New deaths during the week: 17,257 (prev. 15,571)
Daily Average: 2,465 (prev. 2,224)
Europe, with about a tenth of the global population, accounted for 26% of the global new cases and 43% of the global deaths during the week.
The USA, with less than 5% of the global population, accounted for 30% of the global new cases and 22% of the global deaths during the week.
The European figures suggest that Europe is at best on a plateau. The USA figures show a continuing significant rise both in new cases and new deaths. The daily average death rate is up by almost a thousand in two weeks. This week's peaks were over 3 thousand.
There seems to have been a sharp upswing in the Balkan region; the UK has moved down to tenth place in the "deaths per million" Worldometer ranking, but only because it has been overtaken within the last week by Bosnia Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Slovenia.
The second surge of Covid-19 in South Africa is much worse than the first: in the Western Cape we have a 133% increase in cases and a 700% increase in deaths over the last week. Right now, confirmed cases number 860 964, the total number of deaths at 23 276.
Tonight President Ramaphosa will again speak to the nation and we expect all beaches closed over the festive season and a return to Level 4 lockdown with no travel between provinces and airports closing again.
Meanwhile, in Europe - both Germany, and The Netherlands, are going into lockdown until at least the middle of January, and in the UK, on Wednesday, London, along with parts of neighbouring counties, joins the majority of the population in Tier 3.
The *government* here, of course, still insists on schools being kept open, despite the rise in cases amongst pupils and staff, but it's interesting to note that some local authorities have ignored this, and closed all schools (apart from the exceptions which were OK during lockdown 1).
Meanwhile, in Europe - both Germany, and The Netherlands, are going into lockdown until at least the middle of January, and in the UK, on Wednesday, London, along with parts of neighbouring counties, joins the majority of the population in Tier 3.
The *government* here, of course, still insists on schools being kept open, despite the rise in cases amongst pupils and staff, but it's interesting to note that some local authorities have ignored this, and closed all schools (apart from the exceptions which were OK during lockdown 1).
Note that the first local authority to do so (or try) was Greenwich, who were operating on the basis of advice from Public Health England. So you now have the spectre of the DfE going against the 'advice of the scientists'. In that context; I have no idea what the point of this is supposed to be: https://www.tes.com/news/starmer-urges-leaders-try-keep-schools-open
Well, quite - and now it appears that Greenwich (and perhaps the others) will be threatened with legal action, when all they're trying to do is keep the infection rate down!
Does the *government* simply want everyone to get the Plague, in order to achieve (if that's the right word) herd immunity?
Well, quite - and now it appears that Greenwich (and perhaps the others) will be threatened with legal action, when all they're trying to do is keep the infection rate down!
Does the *government* simply want everyone to get the Plague, in order to achieve (if that's the right word) herd immunity?
Assuming people follow the government advice strictly; a load of people will all decant simultaneously from London on the 23rd, and return on the 27th, after spreading the virus across the country from one of the nations hotspots (which is due to go to tier3 on Wednesday).
Yes, despite their insistence that they're following the science, and despite the fact that many scientists are calling for the Bonkers Amnesty™ to be rescinded.
BTW, the Grauniad has just reported that Greenwich Council is to reluctantly obey the diktat from the *government* to keep schools open, on the basis that it would be a waste of public money to fight it in the courts.
I saw an article on the internet, that I've since mislaid, about a report that took advantage of the disunified regimes across the US to work out what measures control the virus and what don't.
Making masks mandatory, closing restaurants, parks, and beaches all work.
Closing schools has no effect either way.
Closing non-essential shops seems to be actually counterproductive.
I saw an article on the internet, that I've since mislaid, about a report that took advantage of the disunified regimes across the US to work out what measures control the virus and what don't.
Making masks mandatory, closing restaurants, parks, and beaches all work.
Closing schools has no effect either way.
Closing non-essential shops seems to be actually counterproductive.
Aren't there going to be a lot of "correlation is not causation" issues there? Plus it seems to me that the schools question will vary from urban to rural areas.
I saw an article on the internet, that I've since mislaid, about a report that took advantage of the disunified regimes across the US to work out what measures control the virus and what don't.
Making masks mandatory, closing restaurants, parks, and beaches all work.
Closing schools has no effect either way.
Closing non-essential shops seems to be actually counterproductive.
Aren't there going to be a lot of "correlation is not causation" issues there? Plus it seems to me that the schools question will vary from urban to rural areas.
They said they repeated the exercise separating rural from urban areas and found the same results.
IIRC they argued that there's enough variation across the US that they could control for the obvious candidates for confounding variables.
They said they repeated the exercise separating rural from urban areas and found the same results.
IIRC they argued that there's enough variation across the US that they could control for the obvious candidates for confounding variables.
Here's an article from Science claiming that school closure had an important effect on controlling Covid spread, based on worldwide data.
"We found a large effect for closing schools and universities in conjunction, which was remarkably robust across different model structures, variations in the data, and epidemiological assumptions."
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
Pleased to hear the better news. At the macro level, however, things look pretty awful. It’s hard to escape the sense that in many places throughout North America and Europe, the various authorities are struggling to maintain control.
I noted too a further surge in Brazil after a period of decline.
According to Worldometer, yesterday, 16 Dec, saw the highest number of both new cases (716, 605) and deaths (13, 542) worldwide so far.
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
edited December 2020
I think also the highest number of new cases and new deaths in the USA. Things look bad in much of the UK as well. The Christmas relaxation looks more and more stupid.
Signs that far too many people are just running out of patience with the restrictions.
California recorded over 51,000 new cases Wednesday. The hospitals are already just about full, so when 12% of these folks need to be hospitalization in a few weeks, I don't know where they're going to go - field hospitals, I guess. The ICUs are already full, so 12% of those hospitalized need an ICU bed ... the state has already reduced staffing requirements for ICUs, saying it's okay for an ICU nurse to care for 3 patients instead of the usual 2. The two biggest hospitals in my city have stopped doing elective surgeries. Triaging patients and rationing care are possible next steps after they put patients in ORs. Rt is at 1.2, so there's no end in sight. On average every 30 minutes someone in Los Angeles County dies from covid.
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
California recorded over 51,000 new cases Wednesday. The hospitals are already just about full, so when 12% of these folks need to be hospitalization in a few weeks, I don't know where they're going to go - field hospitals, I guess. The ICUs are already full, so 12% of those hospitalized need an ICU bed ... the state has already reduced staffing requirements for ICUs, saying it's okay for an ICU nurse to care for 3 patients instead of the usual 2. The two biggest hospitals in my city have stopped doing elective surgeries. Triaging patients and rationing care are possible next steps after they put patients in ORs. Rt is at 1.2, so there's no end in sight. On average every 30 minutes someone in Los Angeles County dies from covid.
This isn't just, like, a "really bad cold" after all ... ???
"...Boris Johnson’s spokesman backed Patel’s criticism of Ellwood’s behaviour. “The prime minister has been clear throughout the pandemic that it’s vital for everybody to abide by the rules in order to suppress the virus, and therefore protect the NHS and save lives,” he said..."
'Everybody' clearly being a category that excludes Mr Cummings. I wonder how Tory MPs feel about the comparison? Disposable, one imagines.
I think also the highest number of new cases and new deaths in the USA. Things look bad in much of the UK as well. The Christmas relaxation looks more and more stupid.
Signs that far too many people are just running out of patience with the restrictions.
This.
Yuletide/Winterfest/Xmas is a disaster about to happen in January/February, although various news reports indicate that a fair few people are aware of this, and are sensibly planning accordingly.
Many will not take heed, of course - as it has been said, *Plan a party for Christmas, and a funeral (or several) for February*.
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Yes ... But the GOP Red Hat grievances won't just conveniently float away down stream ... Tim Walz was handily elected in 2018 by his promise to be all about "One Minnesota" ... bit the Red Hat *outstate* GOP will blame him for economic losses due to the pandemic regulations ... ...
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Yes ... But the GOP Red Hat grievances won't just conveniently float away down stream ... Tim Walz was handily elected in 2018 by his promise to be all about "One Minnesota" ... bit the Red Hat *outstate* GOP will blame him for economic losses due to the pandemic regulations ... ...
Yes...But
Is the glass half full, or half empty?
Myself, I prefer to look on the bright side.
We have just come out of the worst nightmare in my life. Not looking back at it. (Seems like a biblical story can apply here).
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Yes ... But the GOP Red Hat grievances won't just conveniently float away down stream ... Tim Walz was handily elected in 2018 by his promise to be all about "One Minnesota" ... bit the Red Hat *outstate* GOP will blame him for economic losses due to the pandemic regulations ... ...
Yes...But
Is the glass half full, or half empty?
Myself, I prefer to look on the bright side.
We have just come out of the worst nightmare in my life. Not looking back at it. (Seems like a biblical story can apply here).
I have all my fingers and toes crossed, hoping for better ... But Trump isn't going away quietly, nor are the 70,000,000 who love the guy ... He is already moving to try to lock in the GOP nomination for 2024 ... LOTS of fundraising happening ...
Four years is FOUR years. He's 74 and already in poor health and showing signs of dementia. His track record as regards rewarding and showing loyalty to loyal officials (insert more correct pejoratives here) is crap. He had enough trouble the first time trying to find a man willing to stand as his VP candidate; now that we've had four years of seeing how he churns through people, I can't imagine he could attract a sufficient staff to run a campaign, let alone a government. In 2016 the Republicans were still under the illusion that they could quietly staff his government with reasonable half-way acceptable people and basically "carry" him over the next four years; now they know that he will permit no such thing. And that spells death to the political ambitions of a great many people, for whom he is now an obstacle rather than a potential stepping stone. (Can you see Pence wanting him around in 2024? He has plans of his own, which do not involve being upstaged by a hyperactive maniac who is desperate for attention at every turn.)
Sorry, I don't see it happening. Even the MAGAs who look back on him fondly in four years are likely to be hitching their wagons to other stars by that point.
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
I think Pence opened his personal batting today when he and his wife had very public vaccinations. Interesting speech.
Four years is FOUR years. He's 74 and already in poor health and showing signs of dementia. His track record as regards rewarding and showing loyalty to loyal officials (insert more correct pejoratives here) is crap. He had enough trouble the first time trying to find a man willing to stand as his VP candidate; now that we've had four years of seeing how he churns through people, I can't imagine he could attract a sufficient staff to run a campaign, let alone a government. In 2016 the Republicans were still under the illusion that they could quietly staff his government with reasonable half-way acceptable people and basically "carry" him over the next four years; now they know that he will permit no such thing. And that spells death to the political ambitions of a great many people, for whom he is now an obstacle rather than a potential stepping stone. (Can you see Pence wanting him around in 2024? He has plans of his own, which do not involve being upstaged by a hyperactive maniac who is desperate for attention at every turn.)
Sorry, I don't see it happening. Even the MAGAs who look back on him fondly in four years are likely to be hitching their wagons to other stars by that point.
I hope you're right ...
But I never expected him to be nominated in 2016 ... or to WIN ... His Red Hat Brown shirts still LOVE the guy ...
Yeah, but love gets old, doesn't it? Particularly when the guy is not in front of your face ALL THE FREAKING TIME (though I've no doubt he'll try to stay there). When I grew up, there were still people having fiery opinions about FDR (into the 70s and 80s!) and you just avoided those topics with them. It didn't mean they were going to go do something Awful, that long after.
I will say, that my opinion on the danger (or otherwise) of Trump pulling off revolution in the streets (or alternately, another four year term) is informed by my growing up lifelong in the U.S. My husband, who grew up in war-torn Vietnam, lives in terror of a new civil war here, and I can't persuade him otherwise. I hate to see him doom-scrolling!
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Yes ... But the GOP Red Hat grievances won't just conveniently float away down stream ... Tim Walz was handily elected in 2018 by his promise to be all about "One Minnesota" ... bit the Red Hat *outstate* GOP will blame him for economic losses due to the pandemic regulations ... ...
Yes...But
Is the glass half full, or half empty?
Myself, I prefer to look on the bright side.
We have just come out of the worst nightmare in my life. Not looking back at it. (Seems like a biblical story can apply here).
I have all my fingers and toes crossed, hoping for better ... But Trump isn't going away quietly, nor are the 70,000,000 who love the guy ... He is already moving to try to lock in the GOP nomination for 2024 ... LOTS of fundraising happening ...
Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Yes ... But the GOP Red Hat grievances won't just conveniently float away down stream ... Tim Walz was handily elected in 2018 by his promise to be all about "One Minnesota" ... bit the Red Hat *outstate* GOP will blame him for economic losses due to the pandemic regulations ... ...
Yes...But
Is the glass half full, or half empty?
Myself, I prefer to look on the bright side.
We have just come out of the worst nightmare in my life. Not looking back at it. (Seems like a biblical story can apply here).
I have all my fingers and toes crossed, hoping for better ... But Trump isn't going away quietly, nor are the 70,000,000 who love the guy ... He is already moving to try to lock in the GOP nomination for 2024 ... LOTS of fundraising happening ...
Yes ... But his malignant narcissism runs very deep and I will not be surprised if he runs again, perhaps even as an "Independent," which would make a very interesting situation for the GOP ...
Ah, but this is the UK's *world-beating* Tier 4, and designed only for the favoured pestilence-ridden areas of London and the South-East - in which Xmas/Yule/Winterfest will be Officially Cancelled later today, if press reports are to be believed.
Still, the continuing increase in infections (and the emergence of this new variety of Ye Plague) is disquieting.
Ah, but this is the UK's *world-beating* Tier 4, and designed only for the favoured pestilence-ridden areas of London and the South-East - in which Xmas/Yule/Winterfest will be Officially Cancelled later today, if press reports are to be believed.
Leaked to a journalist who had lost her original password and so was locked out of her verified twitter account.
As I said - if press reports are to be believed.
We wait.
Yes, I didn't doubt it. I was just questioning the foolishness of a comms strategy based on leaking to a journalist who had .. etc.
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
Our family is suffering great disappointment today but the honest truth is that the Christmas relaxation was always a bad idea. Hopes were built up only to come crashing down. Better if they had not been built up in the first place.
Ah well. It’s just one Christmas. And I guess the toughness will avoid it being the last Christmas for some folks.
As in the UK, South Africa has a new variant or strain of Covid-19. Our health minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, has announced that a variant of the SARS-COV-2 Virus, currently termed the ‘501.V2 Variant,’ has been identified by genomics scientists
In addition, clinicians have pointed to a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture -- they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The current second surge we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant and there are early signs that it is spreading faster than the first wave.
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
Week ending 19 December
Global:
Total cases: 76,605,825 (prev. 72,092,328)
New cases during the week: 4,513,497 (prev. 5,257,735)
Daily Average: 644,785 (prev. 751,105)
Total deaths: 1,691,155 (prev. 1,610,914)
New deaths during the week: 80,241 (prev. 77,173)
Daily Average: 11,463 (prev. 11,025)
Europe:
Total cases: 21,144,615 (prev. 19,659,961)
New cases during the week: 1,484,654 (prev. 1,386,274)
Daily Average: 212,093 (prev. 198,039)
Total deaths: 489,055 (prev. 454,395)
New deaths during the week: 34,660 (prev. 33,549)
Daily average: 4,951 (prev. 4,793)
USA:
Total cases: 18,078,009 (prev. 16,549,366)
New cases during the week: 1,528,643 (prev. 1,565,941)
Daily Average: 218,378 (prev. 223,705)
Total deaths: 323,404 (prev. 305,082)
New deaths during the week: 18,322 (prev. 17,257)
Daily Average: 2,617 (prev. 2,465)
Europe, with about a tenth of the global population, accounted for 28% of the global new cases and 43% of the global deaths during the week.
The USA, with less than 5% of the global population, accounted for 34% of the global new cases and 23% of the global deaths during the week.
As in the UK, South Africa has a new variant or strain of Covid-19. Our health minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, has announced that a variant of the SARS-COV-2 Virus, currently termed the ‘501.V2 Variant,’ has been identified by genomics scientists
In addition, clinicians have pointed to a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture -- they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The current second surge we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant and there are early signs that it is spreading faster than the first wave.
Oh my. We've been told in the UK that the evidence is that new variant is not any more lethal than the old one and vaccines should be equally effective against it, the difference is that it's 70% better at spreading itself. That's what they're saying at present, but I don't think anyone knows enough about it yet. I suspect, horribly, that the spread has already accelerated with the rush to get out of the south east yesterday evening where, by all accounts, the trains were packed.
What an awful time your country is having @MaryLouise .
We've been told in the UK that the evidence is that new variant is not any more lethal than the old one and vaccines should be equally effective against it, the difference is that it's 70% better at spreading itself. That's what they're saying at present, but I don't think anyone knows enough about it yet.
The evidence of whether it's more or less dangerous will appear in a few weeks time - when the current new variant increase in infection rates is translated to hospital admissions, will we see a greater proportion of infections leading to hospitalisation and need for ICU or not?
In relation to the vaccines, these produce proteins that the virus depends on to infect people and the chances of changes to those proteins being so great that the vaccine doesn't work and the virus can still infect cells is miniscule. There may be a slight reduction in efficacy of the vaccines but with the Biontech and Moderna vaccines these are so effective that there's plenty of headroom for them to be less effective but still very good. I don't think any of the vaccines, those currently available or those coming down the line next year, target the same proteins in the same ways ... so even if the new strain renders one of them ineffective there'll still be vaccines available that work against it.
I suspect, horribly, that the spread has already accelerated with the rush to get out of the south east yesterday evening where, by all accounts, the trains were packed.
The much vaunted British Common Sense we're all supposed to demonstrate to control the virus without the government enforcing strict laws to control the virus in action. Though we've seen plenty of examples of Common Sense diverging significantly from what virologists and epidemiologists have been saying we should do that we shouldn't be surprised. Trusting in the public to display Common Sense is a very risky policy. When the government officials issuing advice can't even obey their own rules and drives off to infect Durham what hope of expecting everyone else to obey the rules, much less trusting Common Sense.
At least the Washington State restrictions have taken control. In the last two weeks, we have gone from a high of 1.18 Rt to a low now of 0.76 Rt. However, that value may not hold. We will have to see what it is like two or three weeks after Christmas and New Year's. Of course, with the roll-out of the vaccines with nursing home residents starting to line up, we may just be able to keep it capped.
I am concerned about the new variant, but if the protein key remains the same...
COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the U.S.
COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, according to an editorial published Thursday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
The opinion piece, written by three researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University, cites current daily mortality rates to show that COVID-19 has now surpassed heart disease and cancer as the leading daily cause of death in the U.S.
"It's been a long time since an infectious disease was the leading cause of death for the whole country," said lead author Steven Woolf, M.D., director emeritus of VCU's Center on Society and Health. "And it's a tragic milestone we could've prevented."
By October, COVID-19 was the third-leading cause of death for people ages 45 to 84 and the second-leading cause of death for those over 85. But those numbers were an aggregate of the previous eight months.
Since November, the weekly average for daily COVID-19 deaths has tripled, from 826 to 2,430 deaths per day, writes Woolf. Heart disease and cancer, which have been the leading causes of death for decades, cause approximately 1,700 and 1,600 deaths per day, respectively.
Comments
You misspelled "help to compensate for covidiots who don't take sensible precautions"
The optimal vaccine strategy involves having everyone keep on with the same precautions during the vaccine rollout. That way, vaccines can help you have an R which is much lower than 1, and Covid incidence drops rapidly.
To my mind, vaccinated people should continue to wear masks in public, keep their distance, and not eat in restaurants until Covid is much reduced, to provide a consistent public example.
Global:
Total cases: 72,092,328 (prev. 66,834,593)
New cases during the week: 5,257,735 (prev. 4,279,731)
Daily Average: 751,105 (prev. 611,390)
Total deaths: 1,610,914 (prev. 1,533,741)
New deaths during the week: 77,173 (prev. 76,203)
Daily Average: 11,025 (prev. 10,886)
Europe:
Total cases: 19,659,961 (prev. 18,273,687)
New cases during the week: 1,386,274 (prev. 1,352,910)
Daily Average: 198,039 (prev. 193,273)
Total deaths: 454,395 (prev. 420,846)
New deaths during the week: 33,549 (prev. 34,152)
Daily average: 4,793 (prev. 4,879)
USA:
Total cases: 16,549,366 (prev. 14,983,425)
New cases during the week: 1,565,941 (prev. 1,373,068)
Daily Average: 223,705 (prev. 196,153)
Total deaths: 305,082 (prev. 287,825)
New deaths during the week: 17,257 (prev. 15,571)
Daily Average: 2,465 (prev. 2,224)
Europe, with about a tenth of the global population, accounted for 26% of the global new cases and 43% of the global deaths during the week.
The USA, with less than 5% of the global population, accounted for 30% of the global new cases and 22% of the global deaths during the week.
The European figures suggest that Europe is at best on a plateau. The USA figures show a continuing significant rise both in new cases and new deaths. The daily average death rate is up by almost a thousand in two weeks. This week's peaks were over 3 thousand.
Meanwhile, Germany goes into hard lockdown over the Christmas period...
https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55292614
(*IMHO. YMMV.)
Tonight President Ramaphosa will again speak to the nation and we expect all beaches closed over the festive season and a return to Level 4 lockdown with no travel between provinces and airports closing again.
The *government* here, of course, still insists on schools being kept open, despite the rise in cases amongst pupils and staff, but it's interesting to note that some local authorities have ignored this, and closed all schools (apart from the exceptions which were OK during lockdown 1).
Note that the first local authority to do so (or try) was Greenwich, who were operating on the basis of advice from Public Health England. So you now have the spectre of the DfE going against the 'advice of the scientists'. In that context; I have no idea what the point of this is supposed to be: https://www.tes.com/news/starmer-urges-leaders-try-keep-schools-open
Does the *government* simply want everyone to get the Plague, in order to achieve (if that's the right word) herd immunity?
Assuming people follow the government advice strictly; a load of people will all decant simultaneously from London on the 23rd, and return on the 27th, after spreading the virus across the country from one of the nations hotspots (which is due to go to tier3 on Wednesday).
Governance by super-spreader event.
Making masks mandatory, closing restaurants, parks, and beaches all work.
Closing schools has no effect either way.
Closing non-essential shops seems to be actually counterproductive.
Aren't there going to be a lot of "correlation is not causation" issues there? Plus it seems to me that the schools question will vary from urban to rural areas.
IIRC they argued that there's enough variation across the US that they could control for the obvious candidates for confounding variables.
Here's an article from Science claiming that school closure had an important effect on controlling Covid spread, based on worldwide data.
"We found a large effect for closing schools and universities in conjunction, which was remarkably robust across different model structures, variations in the data, and epidemiological assumptions."
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
I noted too a further surge in Brazil after a period of decline.
Signs that far too many people are just running out of patience with the restrictions.
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
This isn't just, like, a "really bad cold" after all ... ???
From the article:
"...Boris Johnson’s spokesman backed Patel’s criticism of Ellwood’s behaviour. “The prime minister has been clear throughout the pandemic that it’s vital for everybody to abide by the rules in order to suppress the virus, and therefore protect the NHS and save lives,” he said..."
'Everybody' clearly being a category that excludes Mr Cummings. I wonder how Tory MPs feel about the comparison? Disposable, one imagines.
This.
Yuletide/Winterfest/Xmas is a disaster about to happen in January/February, although various news reports indicate that a fair few people are aware of this, and are sensibly planning accordingly.
Many will not take heed, of course - as it has been said, *Plan a party for Christmas, and a funeral (or several) for February*.
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Yes ... But the GOP Red Hat grievances won't just conveniently float away down stream ... Tim Walz was handily elected in 2018 by his promise to be all about "One Minnesota" ... bit the Red Hat *outstate* GOP will blame him for economic losses due to the pandemic regulations ... ...
Yes...But
Is the glass half full, or half empty?
Myself, I prefer to look on the bright side.
We have just come out of the worst nightmare in my life. Not looking back at it. (Seems like a biblical story can apply here).
I have all my fingers and toes crossed, hoping for better ... But Trump isn't going away quietly, nor are the 70,000,000 who love the guy ... He is already moving to try to lock in the GOP nomination for 2024 ... LOTS of fundraising happening ...
Sorry, I don't see it happening. Even the MAGAs who look back on him fondly in four years are likely to be hitching their wagons to other stars by that point.
I hope you're right ...
But I never expected him to be nominated in 2016 ... or to WIN ... His Red Hat Brown shirts still LOVE the guy ...
I will say, that my opinion on the danger (or otherwise) of Trump pulling off revolution in the streets (or alternately, another four year term) is informed by my growing up lifelong in the U.S. My husband, who grew up in war-torn Vietnam, lives in terror of a new civil war here, and I can't persuade him otherwise. I hate to see him doom-scrolling!
It appears the fundraising is not going for a future campaign as much as it is going to line the pockets of the Trump crime syndicate, I mean, family. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/american-made-media-trump-campaign-shell-company_n_5fdd3505c5b60f8288564e86
Yes ... But his malignant narcissism runs very deep and I will not be surprised if he runs again, perhaps even as an "Independent," which would make a very interesting situation for the GOP ...
Still, the continuing increase in infections (and the emergence of this new variety of Ye Plague) is disquieting.
Leaked to a journalist who had lost her original password and so was locked out of her verified twitter account.
We wait.
Yes, I didn't doubt it. I was just questioning the foolishness of a comms strategy based on leaking to a journalist who had .. etc.
Ah well. It’s just one Christmas. And I guess the toughness will avoid it being the last Christmas for some folks.
In addition, clinicians have pointed to a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture -- they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The current second surge we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant and there are early signs that it is spreading faster than the first wave.
Global:
Total cases: 76,605,825 (prev. 72,092,328)
New cases during the week: 4,513,497 (prev. 5,257,735)
Daily Average: 644,785 (prev. 751,105)
Total deaths: 1,691,155 (prev. 1,610,914)
New deaths during the week: 80,241 (prev. 77,173)
Daily Average: 11,463 (prev. 11,025)
Europe:
Total cases: 21,144,615 (prev. 19,659,961)
New cases during the week: 1,484,654 (prev. 1,386,274)
Daily Average: 212,093 (prev. 198,039)
Total deaths: 489,055 (prev. 454,395)
New deaths during the week: 34,660 (prev. 33,549)
Daily average: 4,951 (prev. 4,793)
USA:
Total cases: 18,078,009 (prev. 16,549,366)
New cases during the week: 1,528,643 (prev. 1,565,941)
Daily Average: 218,378 (prev. 223,705)
Total deaths: 323,404 (prev. 305,082)
New deaths during the week: 18,322 (prev. 17,257)
Daily Average: 2,617 (prev. 2,465)
Europe, with about a tenth of the global population, accounted for 28% of the global new cases and 43% of the global deaths during the week.
The USA, with less than 5% of the global population, accounted for 34% of the global new cases and 23% of the global deaths during the week.
Oh my.
What an awful time your country is having @MaryLouise .
In relation to the vaccines, these produce proteins that the virus depends on to infect people and the chances of changes to those proteins being so great that the vaccine doesn't work and the virus can still infect cells is miniscule. There may be a slight reduction in efficacy of the vaccines but with the Biontech and Moderna vaccines these are so effective that there's plenty of headroom for them to be less effective but still very good. I don't think any of the vaccines, those currently available or those coming down the line next year, target the same proteins in the same ways ... so even if the new strain renders one of them ineffective there'll still be vaccines available that work against it.
The much vaunted British Common Sense we're all supposed to demonstrate to control the virus without the government enforcing strict laws to control the virus in action. Though we've seen plenty of examples of Common Sense diverging significantly from what virologists and epidemiologists have been saying we should do that we shouldn't be surprised. Trusting in the public to display Common Sense is a very risky policy. When the government officials issuing advice can't even obey their own rules and drives off to infect Durham what hope of expecting everyone else to obey the rules, much less trusting Common Sense.
I am concerned about the new variant, but if the protein key remains the same...