Trump may say that Iran is 'mostly incapable', but this extract from today's UK Guardian begs to differ:
Experts say it will be extremely difficult for the US to reopen the strait through military means alone as long as Iran retains the ability to hit or harass shipping with missiles, drones or small boats.
My italics.
Granted, it's hard to know exactly what the actual state of the Iranian navy might be, but I note that the US hasn't sent any 'War Ships' (yet), despite asking other countries to do so...
Trump may say that Iran is 'mostly incapable', but this extract from today's UK Guardian begs to differ:
Experts say it will be extremely difficult for the US to reopen the strait through military means alone as long as Iran retains the ability to hit or harass shipping with missiles, drones or small boats.
My italics.
Granted, it's hard to know exactly what the actual state of the Iranian navy might be, but I note that the US hasn't sent any 'War Ships' (yet), despite asking other countries to do so...
One of the things best illustrated by the Russia-Ukraine war is the way that warfare, especially relatively short-range warfare, has shifted from moderately expensive missiles to dirt-cheap armed drones. This seems to be something that the U.S. has not fully adjusted its strategic thinking to accommodate. More relevantly to the current discussion, there does not seem to be anything the U.S. is currently willing to do that would prevent Iran from replenishing its supply of Shaheds to a level that commercial maritime traffic would feel uncomfortable risking. A Shahed drone has a range of 1,000 km to 2,000 km, depending on design and payload, meaning that a Shahed launched from anywhere inside Iran's current territory will be able to reach the Straits of Hormuz.
Comments
“as long at Iran retains the ability”
‘nuff said.’
For the moment, they seem to be retaining some abilities, at least, but, of course, that may change.
One of the things best illustrated by the Russia-Ukraine war is the way that warfare, especially relatively short-range warfare, has shifted from moderately expensive missiles to dirt-cheap armed drones. This seems to be something that the U.S. has not fully adjusted its strategic thinking to accommodate. More relevantly to the current discussion, there does not seem to be anything the U.S. is currently willing to do that would prevent Iran from replenishing its supply of Shaheds to a level that commercial maritime traffic would feel uncomfortable risking. A Shahed drone has a range of 1,000 km to 2,000 km, depending on design and payload, meaning that a Shahed launched from anywhere inside Iran's current territory will be able to reach the Straits of Hormuz.