Good News for Washington State, our Rt values shows we are flattening the curve. Hope Christmas doesn't push us over again.
Minnesota is improving too ... Gov. Walz has extended most restrictions for another month ... [ X X fingers crossed ]
We do have a small coalition of businesses that are openly defying the public health regulations and are being fine for it ... I fear that our Governor -- Tim Walz -- will be replaced in two years by a GOP who will be ANTI-regulation ...
As you know, Father, a lot can happen in two years. For instance, the vaccine rollout will have been completed and we will have a national administration that will be strongly committed to general public health.
There will be a lot of water under the bridge by then.
Yes ... But the GOP Red Hat grievances won't just conveniently float away down stream ... Tim Walz was handily elected in 2018 by his promise to be all about "One Minnesota" ... bit the Red Hat *outstate* GOP will blame him for economic losses due to the pandemic regulations ... ...
Yes...But
Is the glass half full, or half empty?
Myself, I prefer to look on the bright side.
We have just come out of the worst nightmare in my life. Not looking back at it. (Seems like a biblical story can apply here).
I have all my fingers and toes crossed, hoping for better ... But Trump isn't going away quietly, nor are the 70,000,000 who love the guy ... He is already moving to try to lock in the GOP nomination for 2024 ... LOTS of fundraising happening ...
Yes ... But his malignant narcissism runs very deep and I will not be surprised if he runs again, perhaps even as an "Independent," which would make a very interesting situation for the GOP ...
He's a symptom of American fascism, not the sole arbiter of it. Focus on organising and action, not worrying about one specific politician. There are hundreds of US politicians with identical or functionally identical views, who also manage to seem like functional humans which is harder to fight against. He made it more acceptable to hold those views, but white supremacy is the bedrock of the American empire - those views have always existed. Racism is a feature of the country, not a bug.
One thing that has really deeply affected me about the pandemic is the sheer selfishness of others. I don't even mean the purposeful 'muh freedom' type of selfishness, but an apparent baked-in level of not thinking of others. I've seen it in huge swathes in both the US and UK (believe me, I think the UK has acted as reprehensibly as the US), across all age groups though disproportionately amongst white people. Small issues like wearing a face mask under the nose or taking it off to talk to people are part of it, I think - people have this magical thinking around their good intentions, that it makes their actions legitimate and therefore if something goes wrong, it's just a tragic accident that could have happened to anyone. A member of a slimming facebook group I'm in posted a photo of herself at her son's wedding in May (in the UK) with no social distancing or masks and more than 30 people sitting close together, and not a single person has commented on those facts. We refuse to make others' lives our business.
As in the UK, South Africa has a new variant or strain of Covid-19. Our health minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, has announced that a variant of the SARS-COV-2 Virus, currently termed the ‘501.V2 Variant,’ has been identified by genomics scientists
In addition, clinicians have pointed to a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture -- they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The current second surge we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant and there are early signs that it is spreading faster than the first wave.
Oh my. We've been told in the UK that the evidence is that new variant is not any more lethal than the old one and vaccines should be equally effective against it, the difference is that it's 70% better at spreading itself. That's what they're saying at present, but I don't think anyone knows enough about it yet. I suspect, horribly, that the spread has already accelerated with the rush to get out of the south east yesterday evening where, by all accounts, the trains were packed.
What an awful time your country is having @MaryLouise .
I believe that a virus has to mutate a certain amount of times before it needs a new vaccine, and the new strain hasn't done that (cold and flu viruses mutate extremely rapidly, in contrast).
While Washington State has been able to reduce its rate of transmission significantly, Idaho is exploding. I think the biggest difference, besides Idaho not mandating masks, is the cooperation of the residents of the respective states. Here in Washington, we have a more communal responsibility. Idaho hangs on to the old rugged individuality philosophy.
Of course, with the roll-out of the vaccines with nursing home residents starting to line up, we may just be able to keep it capped.
Rolling the first vaccines out to those least likely to go out and spread it to anyone else seems designed to maximise the time taken until we can be free of these fucking restrictions.
Of course, with the roll-out of the vaccines with nursing home residents starting to line up, we may just be able to keep it capped.
Rolling the first vaccines out to those least likely to go out and spread it to anyone else seems designed to maximise the time taken until we can be free of these fucking restrictions.
This is true, but I am nevertheless in no doubt that the most vulnerable should be vaccinated first. They need protection whether they are likely to spread it or not.
Nobody questions why schools are still open when it’s clearly 11 to 18 year olds who the the biggest spreaders. The govt needs to bite the bullet and shut the schools.
Of course, with the roll-out of the vaccines with nursing home residents starting to line up, we may just be able to keep it capped.
Rolling the first vaccines out to those least likely to go out and spread it to anyone else seems designed to maximise the time taken until we can be free of these fucking restrictions.
We can't relax restrictions until at least everyone over 50 or clinically vulnerable has been vaccinated so doing those most likely to catch it and die from it first is just basic decency with no impact on the timescale.
Of course, with the roll-out of the vaccines with nursing home residents starting to line up, we may just be able to keep it capped.
Rolling the first vaccines out to those least likely to go out and spread it to anyone else seems designed to maximise the time taken until we can be free of these fucking restrictions.
Given that some of the most serious outbreaks have occurred in nursing homes this analysis seems erroneous. Why not deploy the first vaccines to people who, despite not going out themselves, seem to be most at risk of catching COVID-19?
Of course, with the roll-out of the vaccines with nursing home residents starting to line up, we may just be able to keep it capped.
Rolling the first vaccines out to those least likely to go out and spread it to anyone else seems designed to maximise the time taken until we can be free of these fucking restrictions.
And yet death finds them.
From April 10 to December 15, in England, there were 17508 coronavirus-related deaths in care homes - about 30% of all COVID-19 deaths (source).
More generally, 88% of people who die from Covid in the UK are over 65 (source).
People of all age groups are disappointed and sad, but it looks like the vaccination program is being prioritised in the right way.
Added to which the Pzizer and Moderna vaccines have distributional difficulties and vaccinating those in care homes or hospitals removes some logistical problems (distance from the low temperature store, getting to them a second time). While we wait for production to ramp up we'll have limited numbers of doses, might as well get them out as quickly as possible while continuing to work on the logistics of a wider distribution.
Besides, many of the biggest spreaders are younger people who insist on going to the pub and not wearing a mask properly. Do we reward bad behaviour by rushing them to the head of the queue for the vaccine so they're personally very likely to be safe, but when they might still be risking the lives of others if they take that as a license to break restrictions?
Until we know whether the vaccine suppresses transmission then the vulnerable need to be priority.
This article from the BBC website about the new strain in the UK may be of interest. Apparently it's not thought to be related to the South African one.
This article from the BBC website about the new strain in the UK may be of interest. Apparently it's not thought to be related to the South African one.
Thanks for this, @Shubenacadie. Though, looking at the crowded flights leaving South Africa for the UK (many here have family there) this last week, I wouldn't be surprised to find the SA strain adding to the mix. In the New Year I imagine borders will be closing for international travel in many directions.
I believe that a virus has to mutate a certain amount of times before it needs a new vaccine, and the new strain hasn't done that (cold and flu viruses mutate extremely rapidly, in contrast).
It's not really the number of mutations so much as where and what they are. You can think of the virus as a piece of a jigsaw puzzle without being terribly wrong, and a vaccine as a thing that's the same shape. Your body makes antibodies, which you can think of as a matching puzzle piece that will mate with either the vaccine or the virus. So long as the virus doesn't change "shape" much, it'll still be a good fit for the antibodies that are made to match the vaccine.
With respect to vaccine priorities, agree that everyone seems to be getting the priorities about right.
As in the UK, South Africa has a new variant or strain of Covid-19. Our health minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, has announced that a variant of the SARS-COV-2 Virus, currently termed the ‘501.V2 Variant,’ has been identified by genomics scientists
In addition, clinicians have pointed to a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture -- they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The current second surge we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant and there are early signs that it is spreading faster than the first wave.
In medical-biological terms, parasites (every virus is an "obligatory intra-cellular parasite") tend to evolve over time to be less lethal and at the same times somewhat easier to *catch* ... The COVID-19 seems to be on-track ...
As I understand it, some states (USA) are moving to anyone over 75 or are essential workers. It has not expanded thus far in my community, though I have seen firefighters and police have been vaccinated. Once the Moderna vaccine is available, I think it will open up here.
As I understand it, some states (USA) are moving to anyone over 75 or are essential workers. It has not expanded thus far in my community, though I have seen firefighters and police have been vaccinated. Once the Moderna vaccine is available, I think it will open up here.
A couple of my local friends who are nurses have had it. The hospitals have to stagger the shots, though - they assume that people might be off work for a day or two with a fever when they get the shot, so they plan to stagger the administration of the vaccine to ensure that their staffing levels remain adequate.
According to Worldometer, the UK has now exceeded 1,000 deaths per million, becoming the eleventh country to do so. We are also the largest country to do so, so far.
However, America is standing at 997 deaths per million and will inevitably pass the 1,000 per million mark soon.
Our dearly beloved Health Secretary is currently promulgating the government's latest decree, and Boxing Day will see much of the rest of *England* promoted to Tier 4, or Tier 3.
I wonder if they'll invent a Tier 5, aka complete lockdown?
A friend of mine speculated this afternoon that Tier 7 would be 'not even Zoom calls' We support the regulations, he especially as a hospital doctor. But you have to have a smile while you can.
Well, I imagine that in South Africa we're looking at whatever Tier 6 might be.
The UK, Israel, Turkey, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland are among countries that have halted air travel to and from South Africa following the announcement that a new variant of the COVID-19 virus (501.V2) is driving a second surge, with higher numbers of confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths. (In my Overberg village, 15 people died within six days, several of them young and without known co-morbidities.)
Another new and different Covid variant has been detected in Nigeria.
At local hospitals in my southern California city they're treating patients in tents, hallways, and sometimes ambulances, as they've run out of beds. The mayor, who lost both of us his parents to covid earlier this year, says we're on our way to a mass casualty event. The virus spread rate is nearly vertical on the charts. But of course the stores and malls are still open and people are travelling for Christmas. January is going to be a nightmare. The only bright spot I see is that all the hospital workers are due to be vaccinated by the end of December.
At local hospitals in my southern California city they're treating patients in tents, hallways, and sometimes ambulances, as they've run out of beds. The mayor, who lost both of us his parents to covid earlier this year, says we're on our way to a mass casualty event. The virus spread rate is nearly vertical on the charts. But of course the stores and malls are still open and people are travelling for Christmas. January is going to be a nightmare. The only bright spot I see is that all the hospital workers are due to be vaccinated by the end of December.
Here in Minnesota the rate of new infections has been dropping sharply during this last week ... Ironically, the Whoopee Party (GOP) guys are now saying, "See ... ??? The shutdowns were unnecessary ... Just open up EVERYTHING ..."
Here in Minnesota the rate of new infections has been dropping sharply during this last week ... Ironically, the Whoopee Party (GOP) guys are now saying, "See ... ??? The shutdowns were unnecessary ... Just open up EVERYTHING ..."
There is a particular kind of stupid that says "what we're currently doing is working, so let's stop doing it".
If the US had any kind of sensible contact tracing, then you'd probably find all kinds of interesting clusters in the Covid data. But it doesn't, so rates per county / city / zip code is the best you can do.
Our local rates are going down too. I'm pleased that there wasn't a visible Thanksgiving bump in the data. The public schools plan to start re-opening in person in 4 weeks, which is too early, but we might get away with it (it's a phased re-open that starts small, and they're re-opening to less than half occupancy, so as long as the rates continue to drop, then a combination of lower incidence in the area and lower occupancy of schools might mean we get away with it.
The only bright spot I see is that all the hospital workers are due to be vaccinated by the end of December.
That bit at least is good news.
Those in the know any idea what sort of speed we'll be looking at for the vacinations getting done, and what the implications are? My extremely rough the envelope thinking (for the UK, but applicable for West Coast USA), is that the initial 100,000/week makes a big difference for 1000's of individuals but on a national scale is 'throwing oysters in the sea'*, 1,000,000/day roughly means we have a fully normal Easter onwards (bear in mind it's 2 jabs) and somewhere in the middle you get a safe NHS (as regards Covid at least) and make a massive dent in the deaths (as the most vulnerable 10% make up 1/2 the casualties) but it's still a long painful haul.
* fable on the value of marginal mercies in big tragedies.
The only bright spot I see is that all the hospital workers are due to be vaccinated by the end of December.
That bit at least is good news.
Those in the know any idea what sort of speed we'll be looking at for the vacinations getting done, and what the implications are? My extremely rough the envelope thinking (for the UK, but applicable for West Coast USA), is that the initial 100,000/week makes a big difference for 1000's of individuals but on a national scale is 'throwing oysters in the sea'*, 1,000,000/day roughly means we have a fully normal Easter onwards (bear in mind it's 2 jabs) and somewhere in the middle you get a safe NHS (as regards Covid at least) and make a massive dent in the deaths (as the most vulnerable 10% make up 1/2 the casualties) but it's still a long painful haul.
* fable on the value of marginal mercies in big tragedies.
No, I don't think we'll be back to *near* normal by Easter ... Maybe by late Summer or so ...
Barnabas62Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
Week ending 26 December
Global:
Total cases: 80,711,457 (prev. 76,605,825)
New cases during the week: 4,105,632 (prev. 4,513,497)
Daily Average: 586,519 9 (prev. 644,785)
Total deaths: 1,764,424 (prev. 1,691,155)
New deaths during the week: 73,269 (prev. 80,241)
Daily Average: 10,467 (prev. 11,463)
Europe:
Total cases: 22,561,359 (prev. 21,144,615)
New cases during the week: 1,416,744 (prev. 1,484,654)
Daily Average: 202,392 (prev. 212,093)
Total deaths: 518,735 (prev. 489,055)
New deaths during the week: 29,680 (34,660)
Daily average: 4,240 (prev. 4,951)
USA:
Total cases: 19,433,847 (prev. 18,078,009)
New cases during the week: 1,355,838 (prev. 1,528,643)
Daily Average: 193,691 (prev. 218,378)
Total deaths: 339,921 (prev. 323,404)
New deaths during the week: 16,517 (prev. 18,322)
Daily Average: 2,360 (prev. 2,617)
Europe, with about a tenth of the global population, accounted for 35% of the global new cases and 41% of the global deaths during the week.
The USA, with less than 5% of the global population, accounted for 33% of the global new cases and 23% of the global deaths during the week.
Overall numbers are down on the week but there may well have been some under-reporting during the holiday period. We'll see at the end of the next reporting period.
This area has been in Tier 4 since before Christmas and, according to tonight's news, is one of the local areas in England and Wales with rates of around 1 400 cases per 100 000. The neighbour who works as a paramedic comes home from shifts where they've picked up one person and the rest of the shift has been queuing to get the patient admitted/treated as the hospitals aren't coping.
It's going to get worse. I, and my daughter who lives with me, went for a 10 mile walk on Christmas Day, right out into the sticks, and walked past several houses where cars were drawing up for Christmas lunchtime dos with nary a mask in sight - 10 cars at one place, but they weren't the only ones. Nope, I didn't report them, because by the time anyone got there they'd have mingled already. I did wonder if the plump granny waving cheerily out of the car window at the teenage grandchild as they drew up was going to have cause to regret her decision in the next few weeks.
Because we're in Tier 4, I suggested that those of us stuck at home on this close could wave mince pies and glasses at each other on Christmas Day afternoon in socially distanced friendly fashion. All who were around at the time were the paramedic's partner and us, all the rest had gone to spend the day with family. To be fair, several people are legitimately bubbled for childcare with grandchildren, but not everyone.
I reckon Christmas has meant a lot of mingling against all suggestions for caution.
I did wonder if the plump granny waving cheerily out of the car window at the teenage grandchild as they drew up was going to have cause to regret her decision in the next few weeks.
I think why it's hard is that the answer is "probably not". Most people who break the rules on any given occasion will be fine. Plump Granny might well pick up covid from having a chat with Slender Great Aunt in 3 weeks' time, not connecting the infection to general increased prevalence following Christmas gatherings. Probability and risk are hard for most folk to understand (which is, of course, why there are rules and guidelines in place).
Yesterday, South Africa reported at least one million cases of coronavirus since confirming its first case in March. We're expecting new and more severe restrictions before New Year.
Local hospitals and medical centres have wards overflowing with Covid patients, many healthcare workers cancelling their holidays to tackle the mass influx of patients. Despite this, our trauma units are also crammed with alcohol-related emergencies because of the festive partying.
I think why it's hard is that the answer is "probably not". Most people who break the rules on any given occasion will be fine.
True. Also, all the various risk metrics are averages. I don't know if UK track and trace is good enough to do anything useful with; what we have over here isn't good enough to make useful correlations, so all we have is Covid rates for the local area.
If you want to know how many people who frequent your local supermarket have Covid and aren't aware of it, the zip code data is fine. But if the people in your supermarket behave sensibly in the store (masks, distancing etc., which you determine by looking at them) then the risk of Covid transmission between shoppers in the supermarket is small even if you're sharing it with some plague vectors.
The high risk-of-transmission activities are things like gathering in houses for meals and parties, eating in restaurants, sharing a long bus / car journey with someone, etc.
If you ride the bus, then the local Covid rates are again a useful number - you'll be sharing the bus with a number of random local strangers. But if you're wanting to gather in a private home with your family, then the risk of Covid transmission may be very different from your local averages, because your specific family may well behave in a way that is very different from the average.
If your relatives engage in risky activities, going to their home would be very risky. If they're strict isolators who have only left home for a weekly grocery shop since September, they probably don't have Covid, so your risk from having Christmas with them would be low.
Public Health rules don't care about your individual circumstances, though. From a public health point of view, it doesn't matter much whether you, individually, get Covid - the thing that matters is the general spread in the community, for which community averages are a sensible way of assessing risks.
several houses where cars were drawing up for Christmas lunchtime dos with nary a mask in sight
I don't think masks are likely to be terribly helpful for "Christmas lunchtime dos" - you can't wear a mask while you're eating and drinking, which is most of the time you're enjoying a "Christmas lunchtime do". Once you've decided that you're going to be spending a few hours eating and drinking in a small room with your relatives, you've decided that you want to share all your viruses with them.
As soon as schools reopen the virus will be spreading. I know four couples who have had Covid19 over the Christmas holidays - all have caught it from their children. Seven of them had a fever for a few days and are now well again, but one - who is only 40 and was previously very fit - is still very unwell twelve days later.
The virus will not be under any kind of control while schools remain open.
A steely, anguished address from President Cyril Ramaphosa to South Africa last night -- our healthcare systems are collapsing.
We are now back in Level 3 restrictions (far tougher than Britain's Tier 4). No sales, distribution or transportation of alcohol, all bars, restaurants and clubs to close at 8pm. Night curfews extended from 9pm until 6am.
The wearing of masks is mandatory and to go out in public without a mask is a crime -- if arrested, you get six months prison and/or a heavy fine. All indoor and outdoor events will be prohibited for two weeks. All beaches, dams, lakes, rivers, public parks and public swimming pools will be closed to the public. New Covid hotspot areas have been named, including where I live, and travel to and from such areas is strongly discouraged.
We're unlikely to get any vaccines until the end of 2021. It's going to be a rough year ahead as the tourism & hospitality industry and wine estates collapse.
That sounds awful, @MaryLouise , I'm so sorry. What about schools? Sorry if you've already said and I've missed it.
Here too the news is grimmer by the day, cases rising rapidly and more people in hospital being treated for the virus than there were at the peak in April, when we were in lockdown. Schools don't know how they are going to administer the mass testing of students if they reopen next week.
@Nenya, not sure what will happen with schools. Unconfirmed reports list more than 900 teachers dead in the Cape from this second wave of Covid. The difficulty is that many learners will get no second chances and we can't have another generation of young people facing a lifetime of unemployment because of illiteracy and no school-leaving certificates.
@Nenya, not sure what will happen with schools. Unconfirmed reports list more than 900 teachers dead in the Cape from this second wave of Covid. The difficulty is that many learners will get no second chances and we can't have another generation of young people facing a lifetime of unemployment because of illiteracy and no school-leaving certificates.
We are reaching the point where serious consideration will need to be given to funding and resourcing an extra year of education for the next few years to allow students who've missed out to reach the endpoint they might otherwise have done.
A steely, anguished address from President Cyril Ramaphosa to South Africa last night -- our healthcare systems are collapsing.
We are now back in Level 3 restrictions (far tougher than Britain's Tier 4). No sales, distribution or transportation of alcohol, all bars, restaurants and clubs to close at 8pm. Night curfews extended from 9pm until 6am.
The wearing of masks is mandatory and to go out in public without a mask is a crime -- if arrested, you get six months prison and/or a heavy fine. All indoor and outdoor events will be prohibited for two weeks. All beaches, dams, lakes, rivers, public parks and public swimming pools will be closed to the public. New Covid hotspot areas have been named, including where I live, and travel to and from such areas is strongly discouraged.
We're unlikely to get any vaccines until the end of 2021. It's going to be a rough year ahead as the tourism & hospitality industry and wine estates collapse.
@Nenya, not sure what will happen with schools. Unconfirmed reports list more than 900 teachers dead in the Cape from this second wave of Covid. The difficulty is that many learners will get no second chances and we can't have another generation of young people facing a lifetime of unemployment because of illiteracy and no school-leaving certificates.
We are reaching the point where serious consideration will need to be given to funding and resourcing an extra year of education for the next few years to allow students who've missed out to reach the endpoint they might otherwise have done.
Yes, here in "the States" students K-12 are basically holding in place with no real gains this year ...
There are hints that England might have to move into Tier 5, whatever that might be (total lockdown under another name?). The Chumocrats, of course, insist that schools must be open, but I'm afraid I agree with @Boogie - keep 'em closed. Several people in Our Place's congregation are teachers, and they say the same...
In fact, keep the whole bloody country closed until Easter.
<votives galore> for @MaryLouise, and for beleaguered South Africa.
BTW - I see from the Grauniad website that thoughts are being given - by ministers! Who knew they thought? - to the idea of keeping secondary schools closed until mid-January at least.
Hark! Is that another U-Turn I hear whistling through the Fog and Filthy Air?
Today someone shared a post on Facebook, praising the army for carrying out the Covid testing on the truckers stuck waiting to cross the Channel. They specifically praised the army for their prompt action, not waiting to get kitted out with PPE, but carrying out the tests wearing just fabric face masks, no medical grade face masks, no gloves, no aprons, no face shields, just normal army uniform. They posted a photo of a bare-handed soldier handling a test kit. From the photo, it looked as though the truckers were carrying out their own tests, while the soldiers watched from six feet away, but it's not clear how the test was passed to and from soldier and trucker.
The person posting the photo clearly thought that "no PPE" was a mark of honour for the army, but I'm wondering - is this true? Or is it just one photo taken at an atypical moment?(The photo shows 5 soldiers and 5 truckers, all socially distanced; the two nearest soldiers clearly don't have gloves or PPE, the further three are too far away to be sure.)
Kent Online's latest bulletin regarding the blockage doesn't really tell us much - apart from the staggering number of lorries involved, and the speed at which they were got on the move...
From the photo, it looked as though the truckers were carrying out their own tests, while the soldiers watched from six feet away, but it's not clear how the test was passed to and from soldier and trucker.
The probability of becoming infected with Covid-19 scales with time and with amount of virus being shed by the infected person, as well as depending on distance. Spending a couple of seconds outdoors within 6 feet of an infected person is relatively low risk - remember that the "contact" guidelines talk about you having spent 15 minutes near someone.
And remember that these aren't people that think they're sick - these are people that think they're healthy. I've had any number of people ask me questions, take my temperature, and generally have as much contact with me as a test-administering soldier would, and they've all been in regular clothes and cloth masks.
From the photo, it looked as though the truckers were carrying out their own tests, while the soldiers watched from six feet away, but it's not clear how the test was passed to and from soldier and trucker.
The probability of becoming infected with Covid-19 scales with time and with amount of virus being shed by the infected person, as well as depending on distance. Spending a couple of seconds outdoors within 6 feet of an infected person is relatively low risk - remember that the "contact" guidelines talk about you having spent 15 minutes near someone.
And remember that these aren't people that think they're sick - these are people that think they're healthy. I've had any number of people ask me questions, take my temperature, and generally have as much contact with me as a test-administering soldier would, and they've all been in regular clothes and cloth masks.
Comments
https://theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/20/coronavirus-live-news-nsw-premier-to-provide-update-on-sydney-restrictions-as-northern-beaches-locked-down-uk-tightens-christmas-rules
No-one wants to be infected by our world-beating new variation of Ye Plague...
He's a symptom of American fascism, not the sole arbiter of it. Focus on organising and action, not worrying about one specific politician. There are hundreds of US politicians with identical or functionally identical views, who also manage to seem like functional humans which is harder to fight against. He made it more acceptable to hold those views, but white supremacy is the bedrock of the American empire - those views have always existed. Racism is a feature of the country, not a bug.
One thing that has really deeply affected me about the pandemic is the sheer selfishness of others. I don't even mean the purposeful 'muh freedom' type of selfishness, but an apparent baked-in level of not thinking of others. I've seen it in huge swathes in both the US and UK (believe me, I think the UK has acted as reprehensibly as the US), across all age groups though disproportionately amongst white people. Small issues like wearing a face mask under the nose or taking it off to talk to people are part of it, I think - people have this magical thinking around their good intentions, that it makes their actions legitimate and therefore if something goes wrong, it's just a tragic accident that could have happened to anyone. A member of a slimming facebook group I'm in posted a photo of herself at her son's wedding in May (in the UK) with no social distancing or masks and more than 30 people sitting close together, and not a single person has commented on those facts. We refuse to make others' lives our business.
I believe that a virus has to mutate a certain amount of times before it needs a new vaccine, and the new strain hasn't done that (cold and flu viruses mutate extremely rapidly, in contrast).
IIRC, God's answer was 'Yes. You are.' (or words to that effect).
Rolling the first vaccines out to those least likely to go out and spread it to anyone else seems designed to maximise the time taken until we can be free of these fucking restrictions.
This is true, but I am nevertheless in no doubt that the most vulnerable should be vaccinated first. They need protection whether they are likely to spread it or not.
Nobody questions why schools are still open when it’s clearly 11 to 18 year olds who the the biggest spreaders. The govt needs to bite the bullet and shut the schools.
We can't relax restrictions until at least everyone over 50 or clinically vulnerable has been vaccinated so doing those most likely to catch it and die from it first is just basic decency with no impact on the timescale.
Given that some of the most serious outbreaks have occurred in nursing homes this analysis seems erroneous. Why not deploy the first vaccines to people who, despite not going out themselves, seem to be most at risk of catching COVID-19?
And yet death finds them.
From April 10 to December 15, in England, there were 17508 coronavirus-related deaths in care homes - about 30% of all COVID-19 deaths (source).
More generally, 88% of people who die from Covid in the UK are over 65 (source).
People of all age groups are disappointed and sad, but it looks like the vaccination program is being prioritised in the right way.
Besides, many of the biggest spreaders are younger people who insist on going to the pub and not wearing a mask properly. Do we reward bad behaviour by rushing them to the head of the queue for the vaccine so they're personally very likely to be safe, but when they might still be risking the lives of others if they take that as a license to break restrictions?
Until we know whether the vaccine suppresses transmission then the vulnerable need to be priority.
Thanks for this, @Shubenacadie. Though, looking at the crowded flights leaving South Africa for the UK (many here have family there) this last week, I wouldn't be surprised to find the SA strain adding to the mix. In the New Year I imagine borders will be closing for international travel in many directions.
It's not really the number of mutations so much as where and what they are. You can think of the virus as a piece of a jigsaw puzzle without being terribly wrong, and a vaccine as a thing that's the same shape. Your body makes antibodies, which you can think of as a matching puzzle piece that will mate with either the vaccine or the virus. So long as the virus doesn't change "shape" much, it'll still be a good fit for the antibodies that are made to match the vaccine.
With respect to vaccine priorities, agree that everyone seems to be getting the priorities about right.
In medical-biological terms, parasites (every virus is an "obligatory intra-cellular parasite") tend to evolve over time to be less lethal and at the same times somewhat easier to *catch* ... The COVID-19 seems to be on-track ...
A couple of my local friends who are nurses have had it. The hospitals have to stagger the shots, though - they assume that people might be off work for a day or two with a fever when they get the shot, so they plan to stagger the administration of the vaccine to ensure that their staffing levels remain adequate.
However, America is standing at 997 deaths per million and will inevitably pass the 1,000 per million mark soon.
I wonder if they'll invent a Tier 5, aka complete lockdown?
The UK, Israel, Turkey, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland are among countries that have halted air travel to and from South Africa following the announcement that a new variant of the COVID-19 virus (501.V2) is driving a second surge, with higher numbers of confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths. (In my Overberg village, 15 people died within six days, several of them young and without known co-morbidities.)
Another new and different Covid variant has been detected in Nigeria.
Here in Minnesota the rate of new infections has been dropping sharply during this last week ... Ironically, the Whoopee Party (GOP) guys are now saying, "See ... ??? The shutdowns were unnecessary ... Just open up EVERYTHING ..."
There is a particular kind of stupid that says "what we're currently doing is working, so let's stop doing it".
If the US had any kind of sensible contact tracing, then you'd probably find all kinds of interesting clusters in the Covid data. But it doesn't, so rates per county / city / zip code is the best you can do.
Our local rates are going down too. I'm pleased that there wasn't a visible Thanksgiving bump in the data. The public schools plan to start re-opening in person in 4 weeks, which is too early, but we might get away with it (it's a phased re-open that starts small, and they're re-opening to less than half occupancy, so as long as the rates continue to drop, then a combination of lower incidence in the area and lower occupancy of schools might mean we get away with it.
Those in the know any idea what sort of speed we'll be looking at for the vacinations getting done, and what the implications are? My extremely rough the envelope thinking (for the UK, but applicable for West Coast USA), is that the initial 100,000/week makes a big difference for 1000's of individuals but on a national scale is 'throwing oysters in the sea'*, 1,000,000/day roughly means we have a fully normal Easter onwards (bear in mind it's 2 jabs) and somewhere in the middle you get a safe NHS (as regards Covid at least) and make a massive dent in the deaths (as the most vulnerable 10% make up 1/2 the casualties) but it's still a long painful haul.
* fable on the value of marginal mercies in big tragedies.
No, I don't think we'll be back to *near* normal by Easter ... Maybe by late Summer or so ...
Global:
Total cases: 80,711,457 (prev. 76,605,825)
New cases during the week: 4,105,632 (prev. 4,513,497)
Daily Average: 586,519 9 (prev. 644,785)
Total deaths: 1,764,424 (prev. 1,691,155)
New deaths during the week: 73,269 (prev. 80,241)
Daily Average: 10,467 (prev. 11,463)
Europe:
Total cases: 22,561,359 (prev. 21,144,615)
New cases during the week: 1,416,744 (prev. 1,484,654)
Daily Average: 202,392 (prev. 212,093)
Total deaths: 518,735 (prev. 489,055)
New deaths during the week: 29,680 (34,660)
Daily average: 4,240 (prev. 4,951)
USA:
Total cases: 19,433,847 (prev. 18,078,009)
New cases during the week: 1,355,838 (prev. 1,528,643)
Daily Average: 193,691 (prev. 218,378)
Total deaths: 339,921 (prev. 323,404)
New deaths during the week: 16,517 (prev. 18,322)
Daily Average: 2,360 (prev. 2,617)
Europe, with about a tenth of the global population, accounted for 35% of the global new cases and 41% of the global deaths during the week.
The USA, with less than 5% of the global population, accounted for 33% of the global new cases and 23% of the global deaths during the week.
Overall numbers are down on the week but there may well have been some under-reporting during the holiday period. We'll see at the end of the next reporting period.
It's going to get worse. I, and my daughter who lives with me, went for a 10 mile walk on Christmas Day, right out into the sticks, and walked past several houses where cars were drawing up for Christmas lunchtime dos with nary a mask in sight - 10 cars at one place, but they weren't the only ones. Nope, I didn't report them, because by the time anyone got there they'd have mingled already. I did wonder if the plump granny waving cheerily out of the car window at the teenage grandchild as they drew up was going to have cause to regret her decision in the next few weeks.
Because we're in Tier 4, I suggested that those of us stuck at home on this close could wave mince pies and glasses at each other on Christmas Day afternoon in socially distanced friendly fashion. All who were around at the time were the paramedic's partner and us, all the rest had gone to spend the day with family. To be fair, several people are legitimately bubbled for childcare with grandchildren, but not everyone.
I reckon Christmas has meant a lot of mingling against all suggestions for caution.
I think why it's hard is that the answer is "probably not". Most people who break the rules on any given occasion will be fine. Plump Granny might well pick up covid from having a chat with Slender Great Aunt in 3 weeks' time, not connecting the infection to general increased prevalence following Christmas gatherings. Probability and risk are hard for most folk to understand (which is, of course, why there are rules and guidelines in place).
Local hospitals and medical centres have wards overflowing with Covid patients, many healthcare workers cancelling their holidays to tackle the mass influx of patients. Despite this, our trauma units are also crammed with alcohol-related emergencies because of the festive partying.
True. Also, all the various risk metrics are averages. I don't know if UK track and trace is good enough to do anything useful with; what we have over here isn't good enough to make useful correlations, so all we have is Covid rates for the local area.
If you want to know how many people who frequent your local supermarket have Covid and aren't aware of it, the zip code data is fine. But if the people in your supermarket behave sensibly in the store (masks, distancing etc., which you determine by looking at them) then the risk of Covid transmission between shoppers in the supermarket is small even if you're sharing it with some plague vectors.
The high risk-of-transmission activities are things like gathering in houses for meals and parties, eating in restaurants, sharing a long bus / car journey with someone, etc.
If you ride the bus, then the local Covid rates are again a useful number - you'll be sharing the bus with a number of random local strangers. But if you're wanting to gather in a private home with your family, then the risk of Covid transmission may be very different from your local averages, because your specific family may well behave in a way that is very different from the average.
If your relatives engage in risky activities, going to their home would be very risky. If they're strict isolators who have only left home for a weekly grocery shop since September, they probably don't have Covid, so your risk from having Christmas with them would be low.
Public Health rules don't care about your individual circumstances, though. From a public health point of view, it doesn't matter much whether you, individually, get Covid - the thing that matters is the general spread in the community, for which community averages are a sensible way of assessing risks.
I don't think masks are likely to be terribly helpful for "Christmas lunchtime dos" - you can't wear a mask while you're eating and drinking, which is most of the time you're enjoying a "Christmas lunchtime do". Once you've decided that you're going to be spending a few hours eating and drinking in a small room with your relatives, you've decided that you want to share all your viruses with them.
The virus will not be under any kind of control while schools remain open.
We are now back in Level 3 restrictions (far tougher than Britain's Tier 4). No sales, distribution or transportation of alcohol, all bars, restaurants and clubs to close at 8pm. Night curfews extended from 9pm until 6am.
The wearing of masks is mandatory and to go out in public without a mask is a crime -- if arrested, you get six months prison and/or a heavy fine. All indoor and outdoor events will be prohibited for two weeks. All beaches, dams, lakes, rivers, public parks and public swimming pools will be closed to the public. New Covid hotspot areas have been named, including where I live, and travel to and from such areas is strongly discouraged.
We're unlikely to get any vaccines until the end of 2021. It's going to be a rough year ahead as the tourism & hospitality industry and wine estates collapse.
Here too the news is grimmer by the day, cases rising rapidly and more people in hospital being treated for the virus than there were at the peak in April, when we were in lockdown. Schools don't know how they are going to administer the mass testing of students if they reopen next week.
We are reaching the point where serious consideration will need to be given to funding and resourcing an extra year of education for the next few years to allow students who've missed out to reach the endpoint they might otherwise have done.
*shudder*
Yes, here in "the States" students K-12 are basically holding in place with no real gains this year ...
In fact, keep the whole bloody country closed until Easter.
<votives galore> for @MaryLouise, and for beleaguered South Africa.
Hark! Is that another U-Turn I hear whistling through the Fog and Filthy Air?
Meanwhile, 53000+ new cases today - a record number...
Lord, have mercy.
The person posting the photo clearly thought that "no PPE" was a mark of honour for the army, but I'm wondering - is this true? Or is it just one photo taken at an atypical moment?(The photo shows 5 soldiers and 5 truckers, all socially distanced; the two nearest soldiers clearly don't have gloves or PPE, the further three are too far away to be sure.)
https://kentonline.co.uk/ashford/news/amazing-achievement-as-14-000-lorries-moved-on-239953/
...from which it may be right to infer that here and there, but not by any means necessarily in every case, corners may have been cut.
The probability of becoming infected with Covid-19 scales with time and with amount of virus being shed by the infected person, as well as depending on distance. Spending a couple of seconds outdoors within 6 feet of an infected person is relatively low risk - remember that the "contact" guidelines talk about you having spent 15 minutes near someone.
And remember that these aren't people that think they're sick - these are people that think they're healthy. I've had any number of people ask me questions, take my temperature, and generally have as much contact with me as a test-administering soldier would, and they've all been in regular clothes and cloth masks.
The virus follows its own rules -- not ours ..