UK Election Rant thread

245678

Comments

  • Not quite, but it is equally to be eschewed.
  • Not quite, but it is equally to be eschewed.

    But not chewed.
  • Hahaha! Farridge has announced he intends to piss full flow into ABdPJ's cornflakes unless he drops his deal and commits to a no-deal Brexit. Got to be a good 15-20% of the public willing to buy the horseshit he's selling. Enough to screw Piffle, not enough to win any seats. I'm suddenly feeling a lot more optimistic about this election.

    I am counting no chickens but this is good news.

    Johnson needs to sell the line that he did everything possible and it's that evil Remain Parliament that stopped me.

    It's bollocks of course but hard core leavers won't listen to me. But they may well listen to their hero...

    If the leave vote splits, the Conservatives are in trouble.

    AFZ
  • Wet Kipper wrote: »
    is that the stuff that looks like dried up leaves and tree back which has been doused in an awful perfume ?

    Straight to the dungeon for that!
  • I think an awful lot will depend on how people end up seeing things.

    That's partly why I think labour should attack Uxbridge strongly, being careful not to get too carried away.

    Labour only have sink enough resources to have a decent possibility of it being turned, he has to be confident he's countered this. We don't know how the Heathrow/PM effect compares, but nor does he.
    (to do the reverse in Islington they need to switch 30% of the electors)

    It makes it clear that those who've experience of him don't like him.
    It shows confidence and agression
    Depending on who they go after, it allows them to set the terms of debate
    They could get it...
  • jay_emm wrote: »
    I think an awful lot will depend on how people end up seeing things.

    That's partly why I think labour should attack Uxbridge strongly, being careful not to get too carried away.
    I assume Brunel will still be in term time which might help. He can't really change seat now without being declared a scardy cat.
  • Would that stop him? For him it's about getting elected and pushing Brexit through, not about what he gets called.
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Circus Host, 8th Day Host
    Dear God,

    I would like you to do me a favour. A moderately big one. I know I’m not always the most perfect believer, but if you could arrange this one I promise I will say my prayers every day, and get to church on time even when it’s raining, and do all the laundry and washing-up without complaining ever again.

    Please make Boris Johnson lose his parliamentary seat.

    Amen.
  • Dear God,

    I would like you to do me a favour. A moderately big one. I know I’m not always the most perfect believer, but if you could arrange this one I promise I will say my prayers every day, and get to church on time even when it’s raining, and do all the laundry and washing-up without complaining ever again.

    Please make Boris Johnson lose his parliamentary seat.

    Amen.

    Woah, steady on there. Don't over-promise.

    I'll limit myself to never complaining about All things bright and beautiful again.
  • I'd sell myself into slavery if it meant Johnson lost his seat!
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    I'd sell myself into slavery if it meant Johnson lost his seat!
    You may have to if he doesn’t
  • Hugal wrote: »
    I'd sell myself into slavery if it meant Johnson lost his seat!
    You may have to if he doesn’t

    No you won't, the tories will arrange that for you.
  • And, to make everyone even more depressed, I saw today this example of True-Blue English Humour™ as a transfer, applied to a car:

    No Illegal Immigrants Kept In This Car Overnight!
    :rage:
  • Surely #Brexit will be the only election issue for you for all elections for the next 80 years (end of century).
  • Only 80 years?
  • Depends if they're Good Old British years or the nasty Continental metric ones.
  • Bugger! David Duke, former High Wossisname of the KKK, has come out in favour of Nigel Farange. That will probably bolster the Farangist's support, as the KKK's policies aren't so far of the repugnant toadface's.
  • sionisais wrote: »
    Bugger! David Duke, former High Wossisname of the KKK, has come out in favour of Nigel Farange. That will probably bolster the Farangist's support, as the KKK's policies aren't so far of the repugnant toadface's.

    Didn't that turn out to be a two year old story redoing the social media rounds?
  • KarlLB wrote: »
    sionisais wrote: »
    Bugger! David Duke, former High Wossisname of the KKK, has come out in favour of Nigel Farange. That will probably bolster the Farangist's support, as the KKK's policies aren't so far of the repugnant toadface's.

    Didn't that turn out to be a two year old story redoing the social media rounds?
    Indeed it is. My mistake, but I don't think it alters the underlying facts one bit. The Farangists (ie, Brexit Ltd) may not be as bad as UKIP (which has gone completely overboard) but it is pretty nasty.
  • Hopefully, the number of 'candidates' they field will be nicely accommodated in a typical Olde English Telephone Box.

    Buried in the Prime Monster's ditch. Along with the said Prime Monster.
  • Hopefully, the number of 'candidates' they field will be nicely accommodated in a typical Olde English Telephone Box.

    Buried in the Prime Monster's ditch. Along with the said Prime Monster.

    I hope they field plenty of candidates, in Tory marginals, to split the gammon & knuckledragger vote so neither of the scumbag parties win the seat. Oh, the irony of the Tories coming unstuck thanks to FPTP.
  • Fair point, and, yes, what delicious irony it would be!
    :innocent:
  • They're even targeting the 'Labour Leavers' in Bolsover, the seat of that arch-Trad Labour MP, the 'Beast of Bolsover' himself, Dennis Skinner. I wish them luck in that endeavour!!!
  • Just read a comment piece in the Guardian saying that if you want Scottish independence, you should vote Conservative as Brexit will lead to the break-up of the union. This mirrors my own thinking, that if you want Scotland to remain in the Union, you should vote SNP (or Lib Dem/Labour in some areas) because that's the most likely way to get a second referendum and the possibility of revoking Article 50, which in turns decreases the arguments in favour of having IndyRef2.

    What a topsy turvy world we live in.
  • Pendragon wrote: »
    They're even targeting the 'Labour Leavers' in Bolsover, the seat of that arch-Trad Labour MP, the 'Beast of Bolsover' himself, Dennis Skinner. I wish them luck in that endeavour!!!

    :lol:

    Interestingly, detailed analysis suggests that fielding candidates in Labour leave seats won't hurt Labour very much. Whilst there are a number of Labour MPs with seats that had a majority for leave,* in most cases it is only a minority of Labour voters in these constituencies who voted leave...

    Here's a hypothetical example to explain what I mean:
    Welcome to the constituency of Random Midlands Town East (RMTE)

    Here are the results for RMTE in the 2016 referendum:

    of votes cast (turnout 75%):
    Leave 55%
    Remain 45%

    Here are the results for RMTE in the 2017 General Election:

    of votes cast (turnout 75%):
    Labour 61%
    Conservative 26%
    UKIP/BXT Party 2%
    LD 3%
    Other 8%

    So the key here is the make up of leave/remain among the supporters of each party. (To make the illustration simple, I am assuming the turnout is the same and it's the same people voting. I.e. it's not that some voted in the referendum and vote vote in the GE and vice versa. In the real studies, this has been looked at as well.)

    Lab / Remain: 40% - Lab / Leave 21%
    Conservative / Remain 1% - Conservative / Leave 25%

    LD / Remain 3%
    UKIP/BXT Party / Leave 2%
    Other / Leave 7%
    Other / Remain 1%

    Thus in order to overtake Labour, the Brexit Company Ltd would need to take all the leave votes from Labour (possible, but unlikely) and all the leave votes from the Conservatives (less likely). The problem here for Nige is that for many voters there are issues other than Brexit. If we assume that they manage to get 2/3 of the Leave vote in this constituency (no mean feat) then the 2019 result for RMTE would like like this:

    Labour 47%
    Conservative 9%
    BXT 37%
    LD 3%
    Other 4%

    In this worked example, they get a lot of leave votes from Labour and a lot from the Conservatives - in reality they'll probably get less from the Conservatives. In which case even getting all the leave votes from Labour would not be enough to win the seat, nor to help the Tories win.

    Even in Leave constituencies, most Labour voters are Remain voters...

    Obviously that's just a hypothetical where I've played with the numbers but there's proper research out there that suggests, the Brexit Party will not hurt Labour as much as people think.

    AFZ

    *The 2016 referendum was not counted by constituency so these figures are derived rather than directly counted. I don't think this matters as all the experts I've heard think they're robust calculations.
  • As Nigel Smugage decided Nottinghamshire was a great place to launch Brexit Ltd's campaign, for the next few days I can't miss his mug on the website of the local rag as they have a piece on his visit, complete with picture of him holding a pint and grinning. We need more local news to push him down the page, as long as it's nothing bad.
  • Fuuuucccckkkkk yoooouuuu Ian Austin, you treacherous shit.
  • Fuuuucccckkkkk yoooouuuu Ian Austin, you treacherous shit.

    He has form. He's been promoting policies that wouldn't look out of place coming from UKIP or even the BNP for the last few years. Which is ironic in someone citing Labour racism in the form of anti-Semitism.
  • KarlLB wrote: »
    Fuuuucccckkkkk yoooouuuu Ian Austin, you treacherous shit.

    He has form. He's been promoting policies that wouldn't look out of place coming from UKIP or even the BNP for the last few years. Which is ironic in someone citing Labour racism in the form of anti-Semitism.

    And he's been joined by John "alleged sexual predator" Predator.
  • @Arethosemyfeet - do you mean John Mann?
  • I think that @Arethosemyfeet means John Woodcock (MP for Barrow heretofore.)

    Another man given a job by the Tory party advising people to vote Tory

  • Thanks for that.

    Wikipedia confirms that Mr Woodcock has had sexual harassment allegations made against him.

    As this is Hell, perhaps I might legitimately observe that his surname may seem appropriate...
  • Thanks for that.

    Wikipedia confirms that Mr Woodcock has had sexual harassment allegations made against him.

    As this is Hell, perhaps I might legitimately observe that his surname may seem appropriate...

    That would be a particularly bad bit of norminative determinism....

    (sorry :blush: I'll get m' coat)
  • :lol:

    Nice one...
  • Well, at least we now know there's no difference between a Johnson and a Woodcock
  • Did we have any doubt before?

    I envisage some new words entering the English language in the not-too-distant future... :lol:
  • "how much wood would a Woodcock......."
  • JonahMan wrote: »
    Just read a comment piece in the Guardian saying that if you want Scottish independence, you should vote Conservative as Brexit will lead to the break-up of the union. This mirrors my own thinking, that if you want Scotland to remain in the Union, you should vote SNP (or Lib Dem/Labour in some areas) because that's the most likely way to get a second referendum and the possibility of revoking Article 50, which in turns decreases the arguments in favour of having IndyRef2.

    What a topsy turvy world we live in.

    I guess this is one of those cases where "accelerationism" makes sense.

  • The Jewish Chronicle can fuck off too. I just can't believe they're willing to use anti-semitism in this way, both the scare the Jewish community and to try to swing the election to the tories. It's disgusting.
  • John Mann is the one who went to the House of Lords: his Bassetlaw seat is now the subject of a row between Labour's NEC and the constituency party over the former's deselecting the latter's pick for candidate over 'allegations' they haven't explained to the locals.
  • Dear Lib Dems,

    The only thing you're likely to achieve by standing in consistencies like Canterbury is splitting the remain vote which could let the rabid Tory leaver win. It seems that you're willing to do anything to stop Brexit apart from co-operate with Labour. Fecking Meatloafs.
  • Yes, I am in a Tory/Labour marginal, with Tory on 20 000, Labour 19 000, and LDs 5000. Yet local Lib Dems insist they can win it.
  • Yes, I am in a Tory/Labour marginal, with Tory on 20 000, Labour 19 000, and LDs 5000. Yet local Lib Dems insist they can win it.

    And in places where the local party / candidate are more realistic, central office are insisting on selecting a candidate. Despite the local party saying they won't give them any support or campaign on their behalf. And some members have resigned over it and said they'll vote Labour instead. Good job!
  • I think they're hoping to win in my constituency too, based on their performance in the local and EU elections. They are definitely being unrealistic here - they came a poor third to Labour's second in the 2017 election and the only way the Tory is going to be defeated is if everyone who didn't vote for him last time votes for the same candidate.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Shipmate
    edited November 2019
    It’s seems to be a wilful failure to understand that the dynamics of elections fo4 uk meps are very different to the National elections. The Lib Dem’s are trying to proceed as if they translate directly.
  • Jane R wrote: »
    I think they're hoping to win in my constituency too, based on their performance in the local and EU elections. They are definitely being unrealistic here - they came a poor third to Labour's second in the 2017 election and the only way the Tory is going to be defeated is if everyone who didn't vote for him last time votes for the same candidate.

    They've been caught recently asking people which way they'd vote in a situation where only Tory and Libdem were meaningful options and then publishing the results as "we can win here!"

    In other news, people, when given a choice between being shot and being hung drawn and quartered, overwhelmingly want to be shot.
  • I saw Luciana Berger interviewed today about Canterbury, Rosie is a lovely person, blah blah blah, but she wants Corbyn in Downing St, blah blah blah. So let's help the Tories. This after the original LD candidate stood down. So their priority is stopping Corbyn, not Brexit.
  • KarlLB wrote: »
    Jane R wrote: »
    I think they're hoping to win in my constituency too, based on their performance in the local and EU elections. They are definitely being unrealistic here - they came a poor third to Labour's second in the 2017 election and the only way the Tory is going to be defeated is if everyone who didn't vote for him last time votes for the same candidate.

    They've been caught recently asking people which way they'd vote in a situation where only Tory and Libdem were meaningful options and then publishing the results as "we can win here!"

    In other news, people, when given a choice between being shot and being hung drawn and quartered, overwhelmingly want to be shot.

    Actually, in the poll in question a plurality still preferred to be hung, drawn and quartered - even with the hypothetical the lib dems could only manage second to the honourable member for the 18th century.
  • I saw Luciana Berger interviewed today about Canterbury, Rosie is a lovely person, blah blah blah, but she wants Corbyn in Downing St, blah blah blah. So let's help the Tories. This after the original LD candidate stood down. So their priority is stopping Corbyn, not Brexit.

    Well, more they are allowing their feelings about Corbyn to get in the way of what should be their main priority - stopping Brexit. Because, as you rightly say, standing LD's in seats where there is already a credible Remain candidate, even if it's someone from a party you don't like, makes no sense.

    As AAV points out in this rather marvellous rant.
  • I'm not sure it's their feelings about Corbyn, in the sense of emotions. They are anti-left. Look at Swinson's voting record.
This discussion has been closed.