Break Glass - 2020 USA Elections

1515254565782

Comments

  • Far too much at stake to compare it to sports, sorry.

    Amen, sister!
  • stetson wrote: »
    In any case, whether it's an "either" of a 50/50, I'd say the Donald's chances of winning at this point are pretty good. I'm calling this for Trump.

    I'd say a Biden win still looks more likely at this point.
  • Trump claiming fraud and saying they are going to the supreme court. Not the words of someone who's overwhelmingly confident?
  • His now banned tweet seems to imply he thinks a vote that's not for him is an attempt to 'steal' the election. How anyone takes him seriously as presedential material is beyond me.
  • I woke up this morning to the uncertain news.

    Hope is the worst thing sometimes. :confounded:
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    W Hyatt wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    In any case, whether it's an "either" of a 50/50, I'd say the Donald's chances of winning at this point are pretty good. I'm calling this for Trump.

    I'd say a Biden win still looks more likely at this point.

    Believe me, I would be delighted to be proven wrong. Here's hoping!
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Trump claiming fraud and saying they are going to the supreme court. Not the words of someone who's overwhelmingly confident?

    He's a rather idiosyncratic character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is somehow good strategy, even if it makes him look like he's losing.
  • stetson wrote: »
    Trump claiming fraud and saying they are going to the supreme court. Not the words of someone who's overwhelmingly confident?

    He's a rather idiosyncratic character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is somehow good strategy, even if it makes him look like he's losing.

    It’s insurance in case he loses.

  • Boogie wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    Trump claiming fraud and saying they are going to the supreme court. Not the words of someone who's overwhelmingly confident?

    He's a rather idiosyncratic character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is somehow good strategy, even if it makes him look like he's losing.

    It’s insurance in case he loses.

    Yeah, but he should wait till he knows he's lost.

  • Anyway, would now be too soon to review the Lincoln Project's Greatest Hits?

    Hopefully this "Lincoln" will soon be taking his seat at the theatre.
  • stetson wrote: »
    Boogie wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    Trump claiming fraud and saying they are going to the supreme court. Not the words of someone who's overwhelmingly confident?

    He's a rather idiosyncratic character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is somehow good strategy, even if it makes him look like he's losing.

    It’s insurance in case he loses.

    Yeah, but he should wait till he knows he's lost.

    You don't buy insurance after the event...
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Wake me up when it's over?

    This isn't over, probably not for a while. Trump doing better than the probabilities, I see. But by how much and will it be enough for him to win?
  • KarlLB wrote: »
    KarlLB wrote: »
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    But Trump can still win.

    Any major party nominee has a non-trivial chance of winning the presidency. A 10% chance is not a 0% chance.

    /tangent - the number of times I've seen people say "either could be true so it's 50/50"....

    Despite my efforts to beat such thinking out of them in a maths classroom.

    It's not even just a maths fail though. It's a complete thinking fail.

    But a mathematical thinking fail.
  • Wisconsin, Penn, Michigan, still to be called, Biden on 238 ecv, Trump 212. Of course, Trump declaring he has won, and threatening an appeal to the Supreme Court. Wisconsin is being shown as 49.4 to 49.1 for B. Trump ahead in Michigan, and Penn, but late votes supposed to be blue. Crumbs.
  • One exit poll showing Trump doing better in every race and gender, except white men. Who knew?
  • Wisconsin now seems to be pretty clearly Biden, Michigan pretty clearly Trump.
    In Pennsylvania, Trump is leading 56-43, but they've only counted 74% of the votes.
  • Just as of now (1025am in the UK) - Biden 224/Trump 213.

    A close race...
    :anguished:
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Wisconsin now seems to be pretty clearly Biden, Michigan pretty clearly Trump.
    In Pennsylvania, Trump is leading 56-43, but they've only counted 74% of the votes.
    As of now, they've only counted 82% of the votes in Michigan. Unless there's some reason to think that the late counted votes won't lean to Biden in the same way as in the other states it's still as much in the air as any of the remaining swing states. Apart from Wisconsin in which Biden is now ahead and unlikely to fall behind, back of the envelope calculations suggest that each one will go to Trump if 60% of the outstanding votes go to Biden and each one will go to Biden if 65% go to Biden.

  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    @Dafyd

    Would you happen to know the explanation for the later-counted votes swinging toward Biden?
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    They're either postal votes or urban votes, the latter swinging Democrat in any election, and the former swinging Democrat because they take Covid-19 restrictions more seriously.
  • Dafyd wrote: »
    They're either postal votes or urban votes, the latter swinging Democrat in any election, and the former swinging Democrat because they take Covid-19 restrictions more seriously.

    Thanks.
  • stetson wrote: »
    Dafyd wrote: »
    They're either postal votes or urban votes, the latter swinging Democrat in any election, and the former swinging Democrat because they take Covid-19 restrictions more seriously.

    Thanks.

    Same reason (in the former case) that Trump has been laughingly claiming fraud on them.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Well, that’s pretty discouraging. Looks like the uncounted mail voles are going to have to break very strongly for Biden to turn over totals already recorded for votes cast.

    Biden’s pathway to the White House looks as difficult now as Trump’s did yesterday.

    All that with what looks like a 5% plus lead in the popular vote.

  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Of voters whose postal ballots arrived before the election who are registered with a party, the percentage Democrat was somewhere in the 60s. The late votes should break strongly for Biden: it's on a knife edge whether they'll break strongly enough.
  • Looking at the current "votes still to be counted" ISTM that Biden's only realistic path to victory would be to take Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. That would give 270 exactly. Anything else looks implausible to me.
  • Looking at the current "votes still to be counted" ISTM that Biden's only realistic path to victory would be to take Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. That would give 270 exactly. Anything else looks implausible to me.

    The BBC are reporting that Biden is ahead in Wisconsin by 20,000 votes with 99% counted...
  • Lord, have mercy. Please don't let Trump win.
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Looking at the current "votes still to be counted" ISTM that Biden's only realistic path to victory would be to take Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. That would give 270 exactly. Anything else looks implausible to me.
    Bearing in mind that the voring patterns in the outstanding states are likely to be similar so losing in Michigan means he's more likely to lose other states, he could swap one of those for Pennsylvania. On the Guardian website North Carolina looks still too close to call also (though if Biden loses in Michigan and Pennsylvania that would be a draw).
  • Read one journalist talking about an "abject disaster" for Dems, leading to various postmortems. You would think so, almost a repeat of 2016.
  • BTW, what's this I hear about some sort of *fence* around the White House? Is Trump trying to turn into a Hitler-style bunker?
    :fearful:
  • Dafyd wrote: »
    Looking at the current "votes still to be counted" ISTM that Biden's only realistic path to victory would be to take Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. That would give 270 exactly. Anything else looks implausible to me.
    Bearing in mind that the voring patterns in the outstanding states are likely to be similar so losing in Michigan means he's more likely to lose other states, he could swap one of those for Pennsylvania. On the Guardian website North Carolina looks still too close to call also (though if Biden loses in Michigan and Pennsylvania that would be a draw).

    Biden is going to take Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is very much up in the air. Trump is almost 10 points ahead with 2/3 of the votes counted, but the votes that haven't yet been counted are the mail ballots that are expected to swing heavily Democratic, so at least the magnitude of Trump's lead there is illusory. I think it's too hard to call at the moment.

    Biden just pulled in to the lead in Michigan with 94% of the votes counted. The remaining votes are likely to tend Democratic as well (there's a load of votes yet to come from Wayne county), so it looks hopeful for Biden there.

    Biden has a narrow lead in Nevada, but with one third of the expected votes outstanding, shouldn't count his chickens just yet.
  • Read one journalist talking about an "abject disaster" for Dems, leading to various postmortems. You would think so, almost a repeat of 2016.
    This election is a disaster for Democrats, and really democracy itself, even if Biden wins.
    One is the closeness of the residential race. And the other is the failure to flip congress. This indicates a strongly divided America, one in which people will vote against their own best interests because of fear and racism. Even if Biden wins, his ability to get things done will be severely hampered.
    America is no shining city on a hill, but a dank cave in a foetid swamp.
  • Dafyd wrote: »
    Looking at the current "votes still to be counted" ISTM that Biden's only realistic path to victory would be to take Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. That would give 270 exactly. Anything else looks implausible to me.
    Bearing in mind that the voring patterns in the outstanding states are likely to be similar so losing in Michigan means he's more likely to lose other states, he could swap one of those for Pennsylvania. On the Guardian website North Carolina looks still too close to call also (though if Biden loses in Michigan and Pennsylvania that would be a draw).

    Biden is going to take Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is very much up in the air. Trump is almost 10 points ahead with 2/3 of the votes counted, but the votes that haven't yet been counted are the mail ballots that are expected to swing heavily Democratic, so at least the magnitude of Trump's lead there is illusory. I think it's too hard to call at the moment.

    Biden just pulled in to the lead in Michigan with 94% of the votes counted. The remaining votes are likely to tend Democratic as well (there's a load of votes yet to come from Wayne county), so it looks hopeful for Biden there.

    Biden has a narrow lead in Nevada, but with one third of the expected votes outstanding, shouldn't count his chickens just yet.

    Nevada still Biden lead with 86% in. I have a cautious optimism another four years might just be avoided.
  • Thank you for those kind, kind words.
  • If Georgia and North Carolina both come in for Trump (he's in the lead in both states at the moment, although not unassailably so if the outstanding ballots are heavily Democratic), and Wisconsin and Michigan both go for Biden (pretty likely given current data) then if Biden keeps hold of Arizona and Nevada, he's on exactly 270 votes without Pennsylvania.

    Arizona looks pretty certain to go Biden. Nevada will not report any further data until Thursday.
  • Democrats are pretty certain to keep control of the House, although several seats that they flipped two years ago are likely to go back to Republicans.

    In the Senate, it's clear that, like in the Presidential election, the Democrats haven't done as well as they hoped, or that the polls were suggesting they could do. Mark Kelly looks likely to win Arizona in a gain for the Democrats; Tommy Tuberville has won Alabama as a gain for the Republicans. John Hickenlooper gains Colorado for the Democrats. Susan Collins looks like she'll just about hang on in Maine for the Republicans.

    In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Jon Ossof by a couple of points more than Trump leads Biden, so that seat probably stays Republican even if Trump loses Georgia.

    Republicans look to keep control of the senate.
  • The positive I can take from this is that Trump's malign charisma is unlikely to be replicable by the next GOP candidate so the enthusiasm of the redcaps is unlikely to be present to the same degree in four years.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Fox News and the AP have both projected a Biden win in Arizona. Assuming that's the case (and assuming all the other media projections so far are accurate), the states still outstanding are:
    • Wisconsin (10) Biden +0.7 pp
    • Nevada (6) Biden +0.6 pp
    • Michigan (16) Biden +0.2 pp
    • North Carolina (15) Trump +1.4 pp
    • Georgia (16) Trump +2.2 pp
    • Pennsylvania (20) Trump +10.0 pp
    • Alaska (3) Trump +26.7 pp

    Maine's 2nd Congressional District and its 1 electoral vote haven't been projected yet, but I haven't been able to find the current margin online. The margins listed are the best currently available figures and will eventually shift.

    Biden's path to victory: Wisconsin and Nevada plus any one of Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

    Trump's path to victory: Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania plus any one of Michigan, Nevada, or Wisconsin.
    stetson wrote: »
    Dafyd wrote: »
    They're either postal votes or urban votes, the latter swinging Democrat in any election, and the former swinging Democrat because they take Covid-19 restrictions more seriously.
    Thanks.

    This phenomenon is well known enough to have its own Wikipedia entry.
    In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Jon Ossof by a couple of points more than Trump leads Biden, so that seat probably stays Republican even if Trump loses Georgia.

    Republicans look to keep control of the senate.

    You forgot Georgia's special election, which looks to be heading to a December runoff between Raphael Warnock and Kelly Loeffler.
  • Biden's lead is very narrow in Wisconsin and Michigan, so Trump is already crying fraud and vote dumping. I don't know whether he can claim recounts, but he is going to muddy the water, delay as much as possible, and possibly take one of them to the Supreme Court.
  • Biden campaign manager, 'we are on a clear path to victory'. FFS, don't brag too early.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    Fox News and the AP have both projected a Biden win in Arizona. Assuming that's the case (and assuming all the other media projections so far are accurate), the states still outstanding are:
    • Wisconsin (10) Biden +0.7 pp
    • Nevada (6) Biden +0.6 pp
    • Michigan (16) Biden +0.2 pp
    • North Carolina (15) Trump +1.4 pp
    • Georgia (16) Trump +2.2 pp
    • Pennsylvania (20) Trump +10.0 pp
    • Alaska (3) Trump +26.7 pp

    Maine's 2nd Congressional District and its 1 electoral vote haven't been projected yet, but I haven't been able to find the current margin online. The margins listed are the best currently available figures and will eventually shift.

    Biden's path to victory: Wisconsin and Nevada plus any one of Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

    Trump's path to victory: Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania plus any one of Michigan, Nevada, or Wisconsin.

    This is the single most helpful piece of reporting I have seen on the election today. Thank you @Crœsos !
  • Biden campaign manager, 'we are on a clear path to victory'. FFS, don't brag too early.

    That's his job. If you're managing a campaign your job is to project confidence in the victory of your candidate. Conceding rhetorical ground to the Republicans when:
    1. Biden holds an electoral college lead,
    2. Biden is ahead in enough states to win the electoral college, and
    3. current margins in states that don't count mail-in votes until Election Day (i.e. every state still in play except North Carolina) are expected to continue shifting in Biden's favor
    . . . would be political malpractice. Act like you're winning until you've definitively lost.
    HelenEva wrote: »
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Maine's 2nd Congressional District and its 1 electoral vote haven't been projected yet, but I haven't been able to find the current margin online. The margins listed are the best currently available figures and will eventually shift.

    Biden's path to victory: Wisconsin and Nevada plus any one of Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

    Trump's path to victory: Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania plus any one of Michigan, Nevada, or Wisconsin.

    This is the single most helpful piece of reporting I have seen on the election today. Thank you @Crœsos !

    Thanks. I realized after the fact that there is a math error. Biden's path to victory is actually Wisconsin and Nevada plus any one of Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, or [North Carolina + Maine-02].
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    You forgot Georgia's special election, which looks to be heading to a December runoff between Raphael Warnock and Kelly Loeffler.

    True. It'll be interesting to see what the turnout is for the runoff, and how that affects the result. Warnock didn't score nearly as well as Ossof or Biden in the first round, but ...
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    You forgot Georgia's special election, which looks to be heading to a December runoff between Raphael Warnock and Kelly Loeffler.

    True. It'll be interesting to see what the turnout is for the runoff, and how that affects the result. Warnock didn't score nearly as well as Ossof or Biden in the first round, but ...

    Different kind of election. The special election was what's referred to as a "jungle primary" or "Louisiana-style primary" or a bunch of other colorful descriptors. More than 40% of the Georgia electorate (as of the current tabulation) voted for someone other than Warnock or Loeffler.
  • Biden now seems certain to have won in both Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as in Nevada and Arizona. I think that wraps it up for him. Even if Trump wins in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, he still loses in the Electoral College.
  • Trump will go for recounts?
  • stetson wrote: »
    Boogie wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    Trump claiming fraud and saying they are going to the supreme court. Not the words of someone who's overwhelmingly confident?

    He's a rather idiosyncratic character, and I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is somehow good strategy, even if it makes him look like he's losing.

    It’s insurance in case he loses.

    Yeah, but he should wait till he knows he's lost.

    You don't buy insurance after you crash the car but before. That's kind of how insurance works.

  • One reason that makes folks reluctant to call North Carolina even though it started tabulating its mail-in vote before Election Day is that it will still accept mail-in ballots until November 12, provided that the ballot was postmarked on or before November 3. North Carolinians requested 1,455,328 mail-in ballots in 2020, of which 945,570 have been returned. In other words there are potentially more than half a million North Carolina votes that could theoretically have been cast but not yet counted. Which is why no one is willing to project a winner in a state where Trump leads by just over 75,000 votes. This could take some time.
    Trump will go for recounts?

    He's adopted the "principled" policy of demanding every vote be counted in states where he's currently behind and that vote counting be stopped in states where he's currently ahead. Given this, I'm sure he'd apply the same "principle" to any recounts; opposing them where he's ahead and very much in favor where he's behind.
  • The positive I can take from this is that Trump's malign charisma is unlikely to be replicable by the next GOP candidate so the enthusiasm of the redcaps is unlikely to be present to the same degree in four years.
    If Trump wins
    One: We will see loads more of the same in future republican candidates and independents. Probably will anyway, but even more if he wins.
    Two: The damage that WILL be done in at least two of the next four years will take decades to reverse, for those things than can be reversed.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Biden is now certain to have won at least 3 out of 4 votes in Maine and Fox has declared him to win Alaska. So with Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin I think he gets to 270 EC votes. He has very good chances in those last three States.

    So he just wins even if he loses Pennsylvania. Which looks rather more likely than not.

    It’s certainly not a route I foresaw. I couldn’t see him winning Arizona and losing Pennsylvania.

    But whatever. A lot of water has to go under bridges yet. But things look better.

This discussion has been closed.