Break Glass - 2020 USA Elections

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  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    from a disgraceful man. (to complete your sentence)
  • Various:

    --I heard some of his speech on the radio. He seemed like he'd lost whatever forces he'd gathered together over the last few months. (Focus, meds, being fed emotionally.) He sounded like that was almost gone. Remember when he checked out of the hospital, went back to the WH, and looked like he was having a very hard time--despite visibly trying to put himself together? Today, he *sounded* the way he *looked* then. I wonder if Covid has returned/flared? Or if he'd continued to take the steroids, then suddenly went off them?

    --Yes, it's great that journalists, etc. have gotten more clear about calling T on his cr*p. Sometimes, it's fairly subtle, and sometimes very direct. Makes me think of when the WH press corps were so scared after 9/11 that they pretty much shut down critical thinking, let alone critical writing. (IMHO.) Helen Thomas, doyenne/matriarch to them, got her mojo back first, and was very blunt with Dubya. That seemed to give the others permission to get *their* mojo back, too. (Yes, I know she had various problems, especially towards the end; but this she did well.)

    --Re T and disenfranchisement: 98.7% of the time*, he only cares about himself and how things affect him. He can't do anything else. I think that, to some extent, he's a solipsist: he thinks he's the only person that's real. Yet he still has to deal with unreal people to get what he wants and desperately needs: unswerving devotion, love, and belief. Must be kind of like trying to get your toys to play with you, and getting infuriated because they don't willingly do what you want.

    So no, T doesn't care about everyone having their rights, including voting.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    I watched Don Jr speaking from Georgia. It was really scary. Putting to one side that he was saying the most outrageous and outlandish things, if you imagine yourself to be inside that bubble of alternative facts, he was speaking rationally and saying things that were appealing. He was the epitome of the ordinary person outraged and stirred to action.

    The tragedy of this election for me is that the GOP is unlikely to return to being a political group that I can live with (and I am really a very tolerant and nice person) in the forseeable future. They needed to be decimated in the Senate for that. As things stand, Trump remains their de facto leader, and the GOP is a right wing white working class (middle class?) party led by business people who are prepared to live with a personality cult.
  • Lovely photo here: https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/1324500179056234496/photo/1

    You know the photographer had been waiting for a chance to set that up.
  • Question: Can the incumbent still win?

    I am asking because some of the remaining states could flip either way perhaps, especially if the military votes are counted, which have arrived late; these will in general favour the GOP some say, which would be a major disaster, and no private matter.

    Any thoughts?
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Can anyone think of an election since (say) 1920 when radio, telephone and telegraph, and reasonably fast railways were all in operation, when a result took as long to come in? It's not like here where there may be preferences to be allocated and proportions to be worked out.
  • Wesley J wrote: »
    Question: Can the incumbent still win?

    Yes. If Donald Trump wins all still-outstanding states (Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania*), which is still possible, he will have won the 2020 presidential election. If he loses any of those four states his victory will be a mathematical impossibility. This assumes that all the other states where a winner has been projected remain as they are.
    Gee D wrote: »
    Can anyone think of an election since (say) 1920 when radio, telephone and telegraph, and reasonably fast railways were all in operation, when a result took as long to come in? It's not like here where there may be preferences to be allocated and proportions to be worked out.

    You know, most of us were actually alive during the 2000 presidential election.


    *Not including Alaska in this list because its three electoral votes won't be decisive.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    You missed Arizona, Croesos.

    I think Trump can win if he loses Nevada and wins the rest. Pretty unlikely as things stand but still mathematically possible.

    Georgia is just a toss up. Biden has just taken the lead and it looks he will have a very slender lead before the provisional ballots are cleared and the military ballots are counted. George could flip a couple of times and is so close that a recount is inevitable. Basically the result won’t be known there until after the recount which won’t start until after the official count is declared which I think is 18 November.

    Pennsylvania looks pretty certain to go Biden’s way now. The mailed in ballots have been splitting about 80/20 in Biden’s favour and he could be heading for about a 40k majority. If he gets that I think it is outside the recount zone.

    Wisconsin will be a recount State.

    Nevada. Looks like a Biden win.

    Arizona. On trends I think Trump may win it.

    I don’t think there is a legal challenge worth spit but Trump will continue to spit. Looks like his remaining hope is to delay delay delay EC selection and bring the result back to Congress. I kind of hope that senior GOP representatives will finally beat a path to his door and plead with him to give up. But with a few exceptions they remain quiet or supportive re his outrageous behaviour.
  • I suspect that Trump has been running on the adrenaline of rushing around the country, attending rallies where he was the subject of adulation, for the last few weeks. As he is in his element there he seemed much more "with it". Now that has all stopped his health has caught up with him: ignoring any speculation about his mental faculties, someone who had been hospitalised with Covid 19 like that would normally be recommended to take more time over their recovery and returning to a normal schedule.
  • Wesley JWesley J Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Thank you, Croesos and B62. It is good to have people that follow this more closely than I do!

    Pendragon's observations make very much sense, too.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »

    <snip>

    I don’t think there is a legal challenge worth spit but Trump will continue to spit. Looks like his remaining hope is to delay delay delay EC selection and bring the result back to Congress. I kind of hope that senior GOP representatives will finally beat a path to his door and plead with him to give up. But with a few exceptions they remain quiet or supportive re his outrageous behaviour.

    Last night both Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump were both tweeting fire on other Republicans for not coming out all guns blazing in supports of Trump's efforts to stop the Dems stealing the election. I guess their "remaining quiet" is actually quite telling...
  • TheOrganistTheOrganist Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Even with his appointment of Louis DeJoy to run the USPS Trump couldn't stop the mail-ins that should (will) bring him down.

    If the 3 oldest Trump children really care for their father they'll get him to a doctor PDQ and then announce a concession, citing their father's ill health. True, few will be fooled but it might (in his own eyes) give DT some shred of dignity and get him to go.
  • RocinanteRocinante Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Given Biden's growing majority in the popular vote, and the number of states which are on knife edges, that would be the best option for him right now. But he won't do it - I wouldn't bet against Biden arriving at the WH on January 20th as Trump is frogmarched out at the back.

    He may still manage to thread the needle in the electoral college, though.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    If the 3 oldest Trump children really care for their father they'll get him to a doctor PDQ and then announce a concession, citing their father's ill health. True, few will be fooled but it might (in his own eyes) give DT some shred of dignity and get him to go.
    I think that’s telling. His children know that their dad equates loyalty with caring. So they are out there parroting his nonsense, because that’s the care he needs and expects. It reveals the true dysfunction in that family. Are they scared of confronting him or is the only way open to show care? You’d need to be a fly on the wall. Those kids have been living lies with their lying father for so long (and benefiting from that) that normal expectations of care probably don’t apply.
  • I assume that is the woman praying for the victory while the guy walks back and forth behind her. All I could think of was that the victory was won on the cross, woman. Read your Barth.
  • Biden has just taken the lead in Pennsylvania.

    Expect tantrums.
  • BBC reporting that Biden now ahead in Pennsylvania, which would give it him outright...
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    And Biden has just moved into the lead in Pennsylvania by over 5 thousand votes. That lead will grow significantly. My estimate of a 40k overall vote victory looks very conservative now. It seems more likely to be over 60 thousand. Biden will win Pennsylvania. Wisconsin will be recounted but the current majority is over 20 thousand votes.

    So Biden has 263 electoral votes plus 10 from Wisconsin, which takes him over the top. Not formally yet, but describing Joe Biden as President Elect seems a very reasonable thing to say now.

    There will be a lot of shouting before it’s all over, of course.

  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Indeed.

    BBC is being very circumspect, though, and it seems that nothing is really certain* just yet (but we live in hope...).

    *except that Trump is throwing himself about in a fit of the screaming hab-dabs on the supermarket floor...parents of angry toddlers will be familiar with the scene...
  • CNN reports the Secret Service has sent more agents to Delaware, and the FAA has restricted the airspace over Biden’s house.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Dave W wrote: »
    CNN reports the Secret Service has sent more agents to Delaware, and the FAA has restricted the airspace over Biden’s house.

    Yes, I saw that. And given the inflammatory nonsense coming out of Trump, that’s more than just a formal recognition of outcome by the Service.

    I hope they have jacked up the security for Kamala Harris as well.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Is this something that is usually done at this point in an election, as a matter of course, or are there...er...special circumstances?
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Indeed.

    BBC is being very circumspect, though
    So is Sky News UK. Not impressed by the quality of reporting on either channel.

    CNN has been good to date and is still being careful.

    The real reporting issue is that Pennsylvania has just flipped for Biden in terms of votes counted but it has been obvious for some time that it would. Mailed in ballots have been 16 for every registered Democrat to 1 for every registered Republican. So once the 80/20 pattern emerged consistently for mailed in ballots, confirmation of the win by Biden was just a matter of time.

    And that’s crucial for accurate reporting about Pennsylvania. But neither the BBC nor Sky News seem to have got that.

    Fox is apparently instructing anchors and hosts not to call Biden President Elect even if their news desk is projecting 270 plus electoral votes. The instruction has come from the top.
  • Thank you!

    All the BBC has to say at present is:

    Joe Biden has a thin lead over Donald Trump in the key state of Georgia and has now overtaken the president in Pennsylvania.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    You missed Arizona, Croesos.

    I didn't miss it, I was going with the AP's projection that Biden had won the state.
    Is this something that is usually done at this point in an election, as a matter of course, or are there...er...special circumstances?

    Ever since the . . . unfortunate events of 1968, the Secret Service has provided protection to all major party presidential nominees. When a candidate becomes president-elect the security detail is boosted to a level approximately the same as the president.

    Here's a revised list of still outstanding states. I'm adding Arizona back in since so many news sources still consider it in doubt, though I suspect it will remain in the Biden column once the dust has settled
    • Arizona (11) Biden +1.6 pp
    • Nevada* (6) Biden +0.9 pp
    • Pennsylvania* (20) Biden +0.1 pp
    • Georgia (16) Biden +0.02 pp
    • North Carolina* (15) Trump +1.4 pp
    • Alaska* (3) Trump +29.9 pp
    Biden needs 17 electoral votes to win at this point if you assume Arizona is still undetermined or 6 electoral votes if you don't, while Trump needs 56.

    Previous list here.


    *Still accepting mailed ballots received after Election Day provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Croesos

    Arizona may turn out to be a side show but I think the most up to date view is affected by the pattern emerging for uncounted votes there. It will be close but the odds have turned in favour of Trump based on the trends.

    AP and Fox projected a Biden win for what seemed like good reasons at the time. But the facts have moved.
  • Wesley J wrote: »
    Question: Can the incumbent still win?

    I am asking because some of the remaining states could flip either way perhaps, especially if the military votes are counted, which have arrived late; these will in general favour the GOP some say, which would be a major disaster, and no private matter.

    No.

    You're right that late-arriving military votes would usually be expected to skew Republican, and it's not out of the realms of possibility that there might be enough of those to push Georgia back to Trump (although there are also some provisional ballots that tend to skew Democratic, so ...). But Pennsylvania is a done deal, and with PA, Biden has won even if he loses everything else that's on the table (including Arizona).
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    Indeed.

    BBC is being very circumspect, though
    So is Sky News UK. Not impressed by the quality of reporting on either channel.

    CNN has been good to date and is still being careful.

    The real reporting issue is that Pennsylvania has just flipped for Biden in terms of votes counted but it has been obvious for some time that it would. Mailed in ballots have been 16 for every registered Democrat to 1 for every registered Republican. So once the 80/20 pattern emerged consistently for mailed in ballots, confirmation of the win by Biden was just a matter of time.

    And that’s crucial for accurate reporting about Pennsylvania. But neither the BBC nor Sky News seem to have got that.

    Fox is apparently instructing anchors and hosts not to call Biden President Elect even if their news desk is projecting 270 plus electoral votes. The instruction has come from the top.

    I've been following events on Aljazeera which has covered it all pretty well. My only complaint is the graphics (very good overall) of individual state contests show the candidates' names and images and vote count for each and the vote difference. The unhelpful thing is that it doesn't tell you which one is ahead and without comparing two large 6 or 7 digit numbers it's not clear. All they need is to say 'ahead' under one name.

  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Truly the Republicans under Trump are The Whine and Cheats Party.
  • *loud groans*
    :lol:
  • It looks to me as though the most likely outcome is Biden 306, Trump 232. Which is, amusingly, the same result as the 2016 election that Trump spent so long bragging about, but against Trump rather than in his favour.

    And it looks like Biden will end up with something like a 4 million vote margin in the (electorally meaningless) popular vote.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    (Nevada, etc)
    *Still accepting mailed ballots received after Election Day provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day.

    Yes, but in the case of some disputed states they provide a Post-Paid (Freepost) return envelope and they aren't franked by the postal system. Obviously with no postmark the Trump side is going to say it can't be proved that a PV arrived in time.

  • Maybe they stamp them when they arrive or keep them separated according to date of arrival.
  • It looks to me as though the most likely outcome is Biden 306, Trump 232. Which is, amusingly, the same result as the 2016 election that Trump spent so long bragging about, but against Trump rather than in his favour.

    It should be remembered that although Donald Trump won states controlling 306 electoral votes in 2016 he only received 304 electoral votes thanks to two faithless electors from Texas.
    And it looks like Biden will end up with something like a 4 million vote margin in the (electorally meaningless) popular vote.

    Probably significantly more than 4 million, since only 77% of the California vote and 84% of the New York vote has been counted. People just don't care as much because those aren't presidential swing states, though I imagine it's an inconvenience for down-ballot candidates.

    Which is why the electoral college is insane. An outright majority (not just a plurality) of American voters want Joe Biden to be their next president, and yet the result is still in doubt and the system may still vomit the second place finisher into the Oval Office.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    It should be remembered that although Donald Trump won states controlling 306 electoral votes in 2016 he only received 304 electoral votes thanks to two faithless electors from Texas.

    True, although for completeness, 5 of Hillary Clinton's electors voted for someone other than her, too (three for Colin Powell, in an attempt to select a competent adult Republican, one for Bernie Sanders, and one for Faith Spotted Eagle.)

    And yes, I'd missed that CA and NY had so many votes still outstanding.
  • Trump talking about the dog he doesn't have? This is worth your while. Scooby Doo! https://twitter.com/etienneshrdlu/status/1324674321336459264?s=20
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    And it looks like Biden will end up with something like a 4 million vote margin in the (electorally meaningless) popular vote.

    Probably significantly more than 4 million, since only 77% of the California vote and 84% of the New York vote has been counted.

    His advantage over Trump will probably be comparable to Obama's over Romney in 2012 (5 million or so), and that was not regarded as a particularly close election. The difference is that Obama won Florida and Ohio, putting the EC beyond doubt.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Crœsos wrote: »
    And it looks like Biden will end up with something like a 4 million vote margin in the (electorally meaningless) popular vote.

    Probably significantly more than 4 million, since only 77% of the California vote and 84% of the New York vote has been counted. People just don't care as much because those aren't presidential swing states, though I imagine it's an inconvenience for down-ballot candidates.

    Based on previous elections I woulldn't be surprised if Biden's popular vote majority was above 5 million
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Which is why the electoral college is insane. An outright majority (not just a plurality) of American voters want Joe Biden to be their next president, and yet the result is still in doubt and the system may still vomit the second place finisher into the Oval Office.
    I do agree about the insanity. The vomit risk? Not zero, but low and reducing.

  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    I've just seen I think Mayor of Phildelphia say that every vote will be counted and the Founding Fathers would be proud. Also that Trump needs to put on his big boy pants, acknowledge he lost and congratulate the winner as previous losing candidates did.

    "big boy pants" :)
  • Some of us heard that and got nostalgic for Erin telling people to pull up their big girl pants.
  • Will also be interesting to see how many of the tossup states have third party candidates getting more votes than the margin between the two viable candidates. Everyone has the right to cast their vote as they wish, of course, and residents of safe red or blue states can send signals and cast votes for their most favoured candidate to their hearts' content, but are you really telling me that the 1% or so of Libertarian voters in those states looked at Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden and said "it doesn't matter to me which of these two men becomes President"?

    Actually, they're Libertarian voters, so I suppose they might genuinely see Trump and Biden as equally bad, in slightly different ways.

  • Actually, they're Libertarian voters, so I suppose they might genuinely see Trump and Biden as equally bad, in slightly different ways.

    Contrary to the normal situation, Libertarians should probably hate Trump on economic grounds more than they hate the Democrats, because he pushes for stuff like protectionism and an end to cheap foreign labour in Silicon Valley.

    OTOH, I know at least some of them like his proposed rollback of troops from various overseas stationings, since libertarians tend to dislike expansive militaries. (But they're probably naive if they think that's gonna happen on a wide scale.)

    Some other forums I've been reading have floated the delicious prospect of the Libertarian Party being subjected by Republicans to the usual kind of vitriol that the Greens get from the Democrats, in the event of vote-splittjng leading to a defeat for their side. Though the Libertarians will probably reply that it doesn't matter because Trump wasn't really commited to "freedom" anyway.

  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Will also be interesting to see how many of the tossup states have third party candidates getting more votes than the margin between the two viable candidates.

    States with a current Biden lead:

    Arizona (11)
    Biden margin: 39,769
    Jo Jorgensen(Libertarian) vote: 44,916
    Write-In: 420

    Georgia (16)
    Biden margin: 1,564
    Jo Jorgensen vote: 61,406
    Write-In: 813

    Nevada (6)
    Biden margin: 20,137
    Jo Jorgensen vote: 12,296
    Don Blankenship (Constitution) vote: 2,686
    None of these candidates: 11,747

    Pennsylvania (20)
    Biden margin: 14,724
    Jo Jorgensen vote: 76,783
    Write-Ins: 8,956

    All counts are as current as I could make them and are (obviously) subject to further ballot counting.
  • It's good to hear that trump "is going to keep fighting for the nation*".

    Didn't he manage to avoid fighting for the nation? I thought so.

    *or his own victory which is a different thing altogether
  • Can't anyone ratfuck competently anymore?
    A video purportedly showing election officials "stuffing ballots" in Flint, Mich., a Democratic-leaning city of 95,000 people, wasn’t taken at a Flint polling site at all. It appears to show an election in Russia.

    Segretti wept!
  • EnochEnoch Shipmate
    Sorry if this is the wrong thread, or if this has already been answered upthread or on another one. Can somebody explain something for me?

    How come the press and everyone else know how many votes have been cast for X or Y so far WHILE THE COUNT IS STILL GOING ON? So we're seeing the numbers going up at different speeds etc., including knowing the different rates for votes cast in different ways. Is this usual, or is it an oddity of this particular election? Or is it our elections that are the odd ones on this?

    Here there is no result and there are no figures until the Returning Officer stands up on the podium, declares the votes and announces the winner. Up until a few minutes before that, when he or she tells the candidates so that one of them can demand a recount if appropriate, then, the nearest anyone can get to guessing how the count is going is by trying to see which heaps of votes look largest.

  • I think it's partly an artifact of the US being a Union, so it's more like the EU elections in many ways (a jump in the graph is a bit like Sunderland East declaring), and the state result is like our national result, and then the federal result.

    I'm a bit confused too, hopefully that gives a different uk picture that can be contrasted with American experience.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Progress in the counts is made available to the public, these days on appropriate websites. Nothing goes onto the websites without some measure of authorisation. Votes are of course counted in several places and information is released in batches of votes.

    That’s very different to the UK system for electing MPs. But the typical UK constituency gets about 60,000 votes and is staffed to count and report on them all at once.

    Other major differences are that the US ballots are not just about the election of the President but cover other elections and referendums. Which makes processing the ballots more complex.

    I think the USA system is remarkably transparent.
  • HuiaHuia Shipmate
    In NZ we always get progress reports after the polling booths have closed but while the counting is still going on. Political journalist would explode with frustration if they lost the chance to spent election night pontificating. All results are provisional on the night as votes from NZers overseas and Special* votes are not counted until verified.

    * Special votes are people who voted outside of their electorate, or enrolled on the day.
  • Partly, and I don't know how many states this is true of, if a candidate is up by 40,000 votes and there are only 30,000 ballots left to count, then you can safely say they've won.
This discussion has been closed.