Break Glass - 2020 USA Elections

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  • Including faithless electors if scenaigans get pensilvania, and Arizona is lost you only need three or four. I think that would be a hard narrative to sell.

    I'm slightly bothered how some things are reversed (e.g. last election we were worried about interference).
    On the one hand the assymtry is clear.
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Circus Host, 8th Day Host
    T Jr. then?

    My money's on Ivanka :anguished:
  • In the immortal words of John McEnroe - 'You can NOT be SERIOUS!!!'
    :open_mouth:
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Boogie wrote: »
    I don’t understand why so many top republicans are enabling his behaviour. They must think it’s in their own self interest as I’m sure it’s not out of love and loyalty for him.

    So they must think they are in with a chance or the rats would have left the sinking ship quicker than this.

    Or are they just thick as bricks?

    There are two run-offs elections in early January for the Georgia Senate seats. They're trying to keep the Republican base riled up so they'll turn out for that. Sen. Chris Coons said on CNN that a bunch of them had privately asked him to pass their well wishes to the president-elect, but that they can't say anything publicly yet.
  • Ruth wrote: »
    There are two run-offs elections in early January for the Georgia Senate seats. They're trying to keep the Republican base riled up so they'll turn out for that. Sen. Chris Coons said on CNN that a bunch of them had privately asked him to pass their well wishes to the president-elect, but that they can't say anything publicly yet.

    Real profiles in courage, aren't they?

    Paul Krugman notes a possible flaw in this "rile up the base" strategy:
    Paul Krugman
    One thing they may be overlooking: Black voters really hate attempts at vote suppression, and often react with extra determination. R refusal to accept the election results might stoke their base, but may do even more to boost Ds
    Robert Costa
    Based on my convos with Rs over wknd, most everything McConnell does from here on isn't about January 20th (inauguration day & working with Biden) but January 5th (the Georgia run-off elections). To win the latter, Rs believe the base must be stoked, esp in a fast-changing state.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Yes, but what other strategy remains for the Republican party? It's not like they have a platform or principles anymore.
  • T Jr. then?

    My money's on Ivanka :anguished:
    She is the only one of Trump's spawn* with the brains and charisma to do anything other than suck the parental arse teat.AS she sems to have sufficient processing power, it also makes her the most complicit.

    *Not sure about Tiffany and Barron is too young
  • A frightening prospect...
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Ruth wrote: »
    Yes, but what other strategy remains for the Republican party? It's not like they have a platform or principles anymore.
    I agree. No platform, no principles, other than doing anything necessary to hang on to power.

    The Georgia reruns for two Senators are undoubtedly the hidden motive for McConnell.

    For information, Biden’s lead in Georgia is now over 12,000, with scraps left to count. By normal standards that’s recount-proof.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    Ruth wrote: »
    Yes, but what other strategy remains for the Republican party? It's not like they have a platform or principles anymore.
    I agree. No platform, no principles, other than doing anything necessary to hang on to power.

    The Georgia reruns for two Senators are undoubtedly the hidden motive for McConnell.
    one hidden motive. Another is to justify his antics regardless of the outcome of the runoff.

  • I think T might approve of Jared, his son-in-law, running in 2024. From the outside, anyway, it's sometimes seemed like Jared's the son he always wanted, but never had. If true, that must be galling for Eric and T Jr.

    I prefer not to include Barron in the calculations. It will be 20+ years before he can run for pres. More importantly, IMHO, the best thing for him is to get as far away from his T relatives as he possibly can. Probably not his mom, and possibly not her parents.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    They are all too used to kowtowing to a tyrant. It spoils the soul. I think both Pence and Pompeo are also spoiled goods.

    But that probably doesn’t matter to the GOP. They will just be looking at a product to sell to an uncritical adoring cult. Integrity? Don’t make me laugh.

    In the slow slow remaining count in Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead is approaching 48 thousand. Dealing with provisional ballots must be a tedious business. And they’ve still got a way to go. I reckon Biden will get a majority of at least 60k and that excludes any majority in the late ballots which may yet get excluded by the Supreme Court.

    Nothing more from Arizona yet.

    Overall, observing the completion of the count in these remaining key States is a bit like watching paint dry.
  • Golden Key wrote: »
    I prefer not to include Barron in the calculations. It will be 20+ years before he can run for pres. More importantly, IMHO, the best thing for him is to get as far away from his T relatives as he possibly can. Probably not his mom, and possibly not her parents.
    I think Melania will be divorcing Trump and taking Barron as far away as possible shortly after January 20. I'd love to know what's in her revised pre-nup, but if she's expecting lots of money, I doubt Trump has any.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    They are all too used to kowtowing to a tyrant. It spoils the soul. I think both Pence and Pompeo are also spoiled goods.
    Pence is too old school, IMO. And a bit creepy. Trump won, in part, by appearing to be an outsider. The "independents", libertarians and more fringe members of the Republican party who supported Trump won't have the same affinity for Pence.
    And I think Pompeo is to lick-spittal.

  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    It was interesting watching Biden speak and answer questions. A quiet, calm, confidence. Very much portraying the adult in the room.
  • By contrast to the current occupant of the White House, Animal from the Muppets is quiet and calm
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Though if they are going to run on the narrative (and anger) of a stolen election, then perhaps's they don't need a Trump to make that work.

    And once their voter base start to believe it, it'll be incumbent on a lot of elected representatives to at least hold their nose and go along with it.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    I think the trend lines are changing for the remaining 2% vote in Pennsylvania. I heard the argument that this might happen for provisional ballots since a lot of Republicans who had requested mail-in ballots changed their minds, turned up to vote on the day and said they hadn’t used their mail-in ballots. Under those circumstances they are allowed to vote provisionally but their ballots are checked afterwards to make sure they haven’t voted twice.

    There are mail-in ballots left as well but provisional ballots may now outnumber them. Whatever, today’s counted votes seem to have split nearer to 50/50.

    Worth watching but I’m no longer confident that Biden’s majority will be 60k. More like under 50k. Provisional ballots historically have been more Democrat than Republican, but maybe not this time.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Though if they are going to run on the narrative (and anger) of a stolen election, then perhaps's they don't need a Trump to make that work.

    And once their voter base start to believe it, it'll be incumbent on a lot of elected representatives to at least hold their nose and go along with it.

    But surely if they go down that path, Trump is the obvious candidate, the one who will really believe that narrative and sell it most effectively. And surely he will do his utmost to be that candidate.

    The worrying thing to me is that I can't see what other narrative the Republicans would be likely to pick. I can't see "We're Really Sorry We Got It So Wrong Before, Romney 2024 We're Sure He'll Manage It This Time" as a winning slogan.
  • Though if they are going to run on the narrative (and anger) of a stolen election, then perhaps's they don't need a Trump to make that work.

    And once their voter base start to believe it, it'll be incumbent on a lot of elected representatives to at least hold their nose and go along with it.
    I'm not sure it would help, people do not oftgen change their minds based on facts or evidence, but the democrats should broadcast and hilight the difference between what the Trumpers say in the media and what they say in court. In the vast majority of the court appearances, they are forced to speak the truth and it contradicts what they say in public and what their lawsuits would allege.

  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Arizona. Just looked at the az central website. Biden's lead narrowed to 12,813. 46 thousand ballots remain to be counted, more than half of which are provisional. Trump needs to win 64% of them to just win. But that's a very tall order since about half the provisional ballots have so far been found to be invalid. Looks very like a Biden narrow win and an avoidance of an automatic recount. Recounts may not be requested. A couple of days should clear that up. There is a court case still pending I think but it seems to have very little chance of success.

    Georgia. Biden's lead now over 14k. Still recount territory. But the margin is very unlikely to be overturned. A lawsuit was dismissed.

    Pennsylvania. Biden majority 45.6k. That is recount bomb proof so far as the 0.5% automatic boundary is concerned, but the loser may ask for it . Majority was static during the day. Legal and political challenges continue. Re the legal challenge, the 85 page lawsuit seeking a delay in certification has been assessed by 9 top legal experts as dead in the water. Which doesn't mean that the Trump lawyers won't appeal it up as far as it will go. The late ballot arrivals which the Supreme Court may eventually exclude are not in the 46.6k majority. Republicans in the Pennsylvania Senate are pressing for an audit and a delay in certification. A winning vote in the Pennsylvania Senate cannot of itself remove the existing power of certification which will be given provided the legal case fails in the Pennsylvania court.

    Prediction. Biden will win in Arizona (11 EC votes). Biden will win recounts in Georgia (16 EC votes) and Wisconsin (10 EC votes). All of these results will be certified before the deadline. And together they give Biden 286 EC votes. Biden's win in Pennsylvania (20 EC votes) will be also be certified in time. Barring faithless voters Biden will get 306 votes in the EC.

    There may be a Hail Mary in the Supreme Court for two or more of these. Under these circumstances it will not even reach the end zone.

    More modestly, I think it's all over bar the shouting.
  • Thanks B62 for the info.

    You say 'certified' but as many election US processes seem to be controlled by partisan officials, is there any room for someone of ill-will interfering by point-blank refusing to certify a result even when there's no just cause? (As some trump-supporter in charge of allowing the incoming President funds, offices, briefings, security checks etc. has done.)
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    From what I have read, no. Doesn’t mean they won’t come under political pressure, of course. And a number have already.

    You’re right to wave the warning flag of course. Trump is behaving like a dictator.

    As Croesos observed in different words, there seems to be a distinct lack of moral fibre in GOP politicians. Crossing Trump isn’t the issue so much as crossing the millions in the cult.

    Party democracy does require the major parties to believe in democracy above winning.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    So looking good for Biden.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    I think so. For those who like detail, here is a link to the useful Arizona Central website latest story on the Arizona election.

    But you can never tell what new kinds of nastiness may yet emerge from this poisonous and dysfunctional White House.

    I’m hoping American law and its institutions remain strong enough to defeat this baleful attack on democracy and I think they will.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    How to Steal an Election: I've just heard it suggested (on Aljazeera) that the Republicans in states they control could instruct their State Sec of State to withhold Certification of election results in those states. Then their Legislatures could select Electors who would vote for trump even if it didn't reflect their voters choice.

  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    How to Steal an Election: I've just heard it suggested (on Aljazeera) that the Republicans in states they control could instruct their State Sec of State to withhold Certification of election results in those states. Then their Legislatures could select Electors who would vote for trump even if it didn't reflect their voters choice.

    I mentioned this possibility earlier since the Republicans were discussing this as a last ditch effort to thwart democracy. The main hitch here is that it requires the Republicans to control both houses of the state legislature and the governor's mansion. (A "trifecta" in American political parlance.) Assuming current vote projections hold, the only Biden-supporting states where this is true are Arizona and Georgia. The added complication is that the legislatures for these states are not currently in session, though it is possible to call a special session. I guess the biggest hurdle is that the plan would require both these states to act in concert for a result that wouldn't change the ultimate outcome if Pennsylvania gives its electoral votes to Biden.
  • I also think that, in the event of state legislatures and governors successfully overruling their voters' intentions, a lot of otherwise respectable, law-abiding citizens would then consider it acceptable to retaliate with physical violence.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »

    I’m hoping American law and its institutions remain strong enough to defeat this baleful attack on democracy and I think they will.

    That's the demonstration of MAG(A) I have most been hoping for, in this whole sorry four years.
  • stetson wrote: »
    I also think that, in the event of state legislatures and governors successfully overruling their voters' intentions, a lot of otherwise respectable, law-abiding citizens would then consider it acceptable to retaliate with physical violence.

    Indeed. I think the GOP may be amoral trending immoral but they're not stupid enough to try this.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Indeed. I think the GOP may be amoral trending immoral but they're not stupid enough to try this.

    One of the bitter lessons of the Trump administration* is that every time someone says "Surely they wouldn't . . . ", Republicans go ahead and do it.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    Indeed. I think the GOP may be amoral trending immoral but they're not stupid enough to try this.

    One of the bitter lessons of the Trump administration* is that every time someone says "Surely they wouldn't . . . ", Republicans go ahead and do it.

    Agreed, but that's usually "are they that evil?" rather than "are they that stupid?"
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State, has ordered a full hand by hand recount starting today. It will focus on the Presidential votes and will take place county by county. He’s described it as an audit, a recount and a recanvass all at once.

    It will take time. There are close to 5 million ballots. Maybe too much time? Then Georgia may be into the last ditch throw to which Croesos refers.

  • Crœsos wrote: »
    One of the bitter lessons of the Trump administration* is that every time someone says "Surely they wouldn't . . . ", Republicans go ahead and do it.

    Indeed, Mrs Whale commented to me the other day that I have developed callouses on my chin from all the times my jaw has hit the floor over the last four years.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State, has ordered a full hand by hand recount starting today. It will focus on the Presidential votes and will take place county by county. He’s described it as an audit, a recount and a recanvass all at once.

    It will take time. There are close to 5 million ballots. Maybe too much time? Then Georgia may be into the last ditch throw to which Croesos refers.

    Hard to say, but Raffensperger claims he's confident the hand recount can be completed in time for the November 20 (a week from Friday) deadline Georgia has set for certifying its election results.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    I think so. For those who like detail, here is a link to the useful Arizona Central website latest story on the Arizona election.

    But you can never tell what new kinds of nastiness may yet emerge from this poisonous and dysfunctional White House.

    I’m hoping American law and its institutions remain strong enough to defeat this baleful attack on democracy and I think they will.

    Hmm. It would take a particularly evil mind to hatch this kind of skulduggery. Using the constitution to get round votes cast by deliberately creating delays in certifying votes? That’s about as low as it gets.

    I tip my hat to you Croesos.

    Even if Biden wins and avoids a recount in Arizona, I suppose the trifecta might still be able to act to delay by demanding an audit.

    Then all would rest on Pennsylvania. No wonder there is such a focus there.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    xposted with Croesos

    Raffensperger has also said his investigators would handle all specific voter complaints. That’s like an open ended invitation.

    Plus the process will need observation. Scope for further hanky panky there?

    As you say, it’s hard to say. But easy to spot the devious motivations in play.
  • Someone registered the loser.com website. The redirect is epic trolling.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    That made me smile! Thanks.
  • I am thankful that (thus far) the US has not experienced the extensive violence that some people predicted.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Any 'trouble' might be expected after the result is confirmed, one way or the other.

    Either Biden is properly recognised as POTUS, quickly followed by complaints from the 'right' that their election has been stolen, possibly with violence from the duller-witted segment of trump's people
    Or somehow trump hangs on and Biden's voters, the majority of the voting population, plus international bodies and world opinion is disappointed, stops listening to trump or dealing with him and marks the US as no longer in any way a shining beacon of Democracy.

    Until then, no violence seems likely to me.
  • Am I wrong in seeing this is a form of attempted coup?

  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    If it's an attempted coup it's not a competent one. The only way it's a coup is if it were masterminded by the sort of people who would hold a press conference at a gardening centre thinking it was a hotel.

  • This came up in national news in Canada: Ponpeo, second trump presidency. I references that there's a split among Republican politicians about trump's allegations and attempts to hold on to the leadership.

    I don't want to get all conspiracy here, but they named some guy named Esper who he fired who is in charge of something important in the American military, and that he appointed some trump loyalist people re military (I think it was 3 of them) . At the very least, there's an action movie in this, though I'm still partial to a musical, perhaps staring Shrek.
  • Esper was the (acting?) secretary of defense. T is reportedly also replacing other people at the Pentagon (military HQ) with his own loyal picks.

    There are serious concerns about US national security, because of that.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Am I wrong in seeing this is a form of attempted coup?

    It could be seen as such, especially in light of the huge shake-up at the Pentagon. There are serious, smart people who are saying this:

    Sarah Kendzior on Twitter; her podcast is Gaslit Nation (with Andrea Chalupa) and her latest book is "Hiding in Plain Sight: The Invention of Donald Trump and the Erosion of America." She studies autocracy and has been saying all along that the Trump administration is really a transnational crime syndicate: "This is the GOP backed by a transnational crime syndicate attempting to create a one-party autocratic state." On Gaslit Nation they're calling this the "Klown Kar Koup." If you care about American democracy and you want to lose sleep and/or turn your stomach, follow her on Twitter.

    Ezra Klein in Vox: "Trump is attempting a coup in plain sight."

    David Rohde in The New Yorker is calling it a coup.

    Masha Gessen in The New Yorker is calling it "an autocratic attempt," drawing on "the work of Bálint Magyar, a Hungarian sociologist who set out to develop analytical tools for understanding the turn away from democracy in many Eastern and Central European countries."

    Chris Hayes on MSNBC asks, "At a certain point, if you are just trollingly pretending to be engaged in a coup, when do you cross over to actually trying for a coup?"

    In Salon, Amanda Marcotte says it's basically a grift on Trump's part that Mitch McConnell is using as an opportunity to undermine the Biden presidency.

    Salon has a round-up of experts' opinions on whether or not it's a coup.

    Erika De Bruin, author of "How to Prevent Coups," says it's not a coup, because Trump would have to get the regular military on board with that, which she says is very unlikely. She says what's happening is "democratic backsliding," the erosion of democratic norms.

    I think it's important to keep in mind that however inept Trump and many of his advisors are, McConnell and a lot of the Republican powers that be are not so stupid. Trump may be flailing around in a rage and change his mind about what he wants to do hourly, and he may be moving people around merely in an to cover up massive crimes and grift, but McConnell has a fixed goal in mind, which is one-party Republican rule. He showed us who he is and what he wants throughout Obama's presidency.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited November 2020
    Just heard Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State, interviewed on CNN about the recount. Struck me as a straight arrow. Probably why he’s been attacked.

    After yesterday’s stall, Biden’s majority in Pennsylvania has moved up and is now over 50k.

    No additional votes have appeared yet (just coming up to 4pm local time) for Arizona. Suggests a biggish drop in an hour or two’s time.
  • Seems to me Trump's ongoing deceit about the way elections work is a multi tool play. Could be a coup. Could be an attempt to harden his base by showing resolve for "his" sense of America. Could be a grift to get followers to give him cash so he can pay down his debts. Could an impulsive act of egotism.

    Could be all of the above.
  • An opinion piece in the Washington Post (and therefore possibly behind a pay wall): Trump’s election challenge looks like a scam to line his pockets
    He seems to be asking for funds to challenge the election, but the fine print shows that the money could let him line his own coffers.

    and
    Such email solicitations target small donors, so for the “overwhelming majority of people contributing … none of their money will end up in recount accounts” or be used for otherwise challenging the election.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    Indeed. I think the GOP may be amoral trending immoral but they're not stupid enough to try this.

    One of the bitter lessons of the Trump administration* is that every time someone says "Surely they wouldn't . . . ", Republicans go ahead and do it.

    Agreed, but that's usually "are they that evil?" rather than "are they that stupid?"

    FWIW: IME "stupid" is the one I usually hear--and not just with T's administration. It's very common to view all the political and governmental folks in DC as being totally out of touch with normal reality; focused on their own power and greed; and focused on their party's power and greed. I hear the "evil" version much less frequently. And that's over decades.

    There's also a thing called "Inside The Beltway Syndrome". The Beltway is a road that encircles DC. Political and governmental folks often seem totally unaware of anything beyond that road. And that makes it nigh impossible for them to understand what's going on with their constituents--and *that* makes it very hard for constituents to trust their Congress critters. Never mind the whole problem of lobbyists and such paying off Congress critters. I think some members of Congress have pretty clean hands; but I also think it's nearly impossible to keep them that way. (E.g., needing to get campaign donations.)

This discussion has been closed.