Biden/Harris Reflections and Prognostications

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  • mousethief wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Well, she has survived in a male-dominated enterprise (government) so far. And she has put a few more cracks in that glass ceiling when she was voted in as vice president.

    Remember when she crucified Joe in the first Democratic primary debate? And she was being kind in that debate due to her respect for Biden's son, Beau (they were both state Attorney Generals at the time). There is no respect for Trump or his family by Kamala. The gloves will be coming off.

    Then she will be called shrill and bitchy.

    I don't think that would bother her. Remember all the tags they put on Obama? He pushed through that.
  • ISTM that Harris is largely unknown outside of CA. I don't recall anything about her before she ran for POTUS this year. If I am typical of voters in that regard, she will be either formidable or a has-been based on how she defines herself in the next four years. My guess is that Biden will give her plenty of opportunities to make her mark during his tenure in office, so the ball will be in her court. @Gramps49 may well have had more exposure to her governing chops than most of the country, but for most folks she needs to establish herself on the world political stage before being seen as up to the job. Of course, I thought the same about Obama when he ran the first time, so my views may be in the minority on these things.
  • Leorning CnihtLeorning Cniht Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Well, over half the population is female. And whites are fast becoming a minority population.

    This is true. But there are very few women who will refuse to vote for a capable man as President, and few black or brown people who will refuse to vote for a white person.

    The reverse is, unfortunately, not so true.

    There's got to be some non-zero chance that Biden doesn't go the distance and she takes over mid-term, though. Whether that would be good or bad for her might depend a lot on what cards she has to play at that point.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Well, she has survived in a male-dominated enterprise (government) so far. And she has put a few more cracks in that glass ceiling when she was voted in as vice president.

    Remember when she crucified Joe in the first Democratic primary debate? And she was being kind in that debate due to her respect for Biden's son, Beau (they were both state Attorney Generals at the time). There is no respect for Trump or his family by Kamala. The gloves will be coming off.
    Remember how she didn't win the nomination?
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    mousethief wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Well, she has survived in a male-dominated enterprise (government) so far. And she has put a few more cracks in that glass ceiling when she was voted in as vice president.

    Remember when she crucified Joe in the first Democratic primary debate? And she was being kind in that debate due to her respect for Biden's son, Beau (they were both state Attorney Generals at the time). There is no respect for Trump or his family by Kamala. The gloves will be coming off.

    Then she will be called shrill and bitchy.

    I don't think that would bother her. Remember all the tags they put on Obama? He pushed through that.

    It rather doesn't matter a rat's whether it bothers her. It's what it does to the public's opinion of her.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    There's got to be some non-zero chance that Biden doesn't go the distance and she takes over mid-term, though. Whether that would be good or bad for her might depend a lot on what cards she has to play at that point.

    Does a VP who takes over mid-term still get chances at two terms themselves?

  • Depends on when it happens. If in the 2nd half of the term, yes; if in the first half of the term, a VP who succeeds to the presidency can only run for the next term.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Well, over half the population is female.

    So what? Being female doesn't prevent someone from being sexist.
  • Ruth wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Well, over half the population is female.

    So what? Being female doesn't prevent someone from being sexist.

    True! Or any of the other myriad reasons—good or bad—someone might not vote for Harris. E.g. racist in particular.
  • Obama overcame racism, though he was more Irish than Kenyan. Just saying.
  • Golden KeyGolden Key Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Gramps--
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Obama overcame racism, though he was more Irish than Kenyan. Just saying.

    Er....Kenyan dad, European-ancestry mom. Was his dad bi-racial, too? That's the only way I can see him being "more Irish than Kenyan". Unless you mean culturally, because Barack's dad was mostly uninvolved in Barack's life.

  • Golden Key wrote: »
    Gramps--
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Obama overcame racism, though he was more Irish than Kenyan. Just saying.

    Er....Kenyan dad, European-ancestry mom. Was his dad bi-racial, too? That's the only way I can see him being "more Irish than Kenyan". Unless you mean culturally, because Barack's dad was mostly uninvolved in Barack's life.
    I could be wrong, but I think Gramps was making a joke. "O'Bama" sounds like an Irish name.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    I wonder whether throwing money at Americans will help ween them off Trump. I remember that Trump accessed all sorts of odd funding to build that bit of wall he was talking about by Executive Order.

    What if Biden was to set up an American form of our jobkeeper and jobseeker payments. Job keeper went to employers who had to shut over the lockdown so that they could keep paying their employees. It was an absolute bonanza for business, a guaranteed income stream of 1500 per employee, and it kept the employer/employee relationship alive, which was brilliant. Job seeker went to those who lost their casual jobs and those already unemployed. It was a big boost to our unemployment benefit, in short. This effectively allowed retail businesses to mothball their businesses for the duration of the crisis, and be ready to go on day one of the restrictions easing. Plus, there was money floating around the economy, ready to be scooped up by those businesses still operating,

    If Trump can build a wall by executive order, why can't Biden build a shield like that for the US economy? Free money folks! We love that stuff downunder.
  • That was the intention of the first Covid Relief Bill, and it worked while it lasted. Now, Congress is deadlocked on a follow-up relief bill. I think the best Biden can do is to get all congressional parties together and jawbone them to an agreement on the next installment.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    And she was being kind in that debate due to her respect for Biden's son, Beau (they were both state Attorney Generals at the time).

    Attorneys General. Beware erroneous pluralization.
    There's got to be some non-zero chance that Biden doesn't go the distance and she takes over mid-term, though.

    About 20.5% according to the Social Security Actuarial Life Tables. Those only take into account a person's age and gender, so nothing specific about their health. Since life expectancy in the U.S. is positively correlated to wealth and Biden's had access to the best health care available in the U.S. since 1973 when he first entered the U.S. Senate, the actual probability is probability of Biden dying in the next four years is probably less than that of the average American male of the same age.
    Hedgehog wrote: »
    I could be wrong, but I think Gramps was making a joke. "O'Bama" sounds like an Irish name.

    Not at all. Obama is Irish on his mother's side. There's even a song.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    You could measure his chances usefully by comparing him with Presidents, VPs and male senators in the last few decades. Have most of them survived in fair health past his current age plus four?
  • You could measure his chances usefully by comparing him with Presidents, VPs and male senators in the last few decades. Have most of them survived in fair health past his current age plus four?

    Age at death (or current age) of post-World War II presidents:
    • Dwight Eisenhower - 78 years, 168 days (pretty much Biden's present age)
    • John Kennedy - 46 years, 177 days (extenuating circumstances)
    • Lyndon Johnson - 64 years, 148 days
    • Richard Nixon - 81 years, 104 days
    • Gerald Ford - 93 years, 165 days
    • Jimmy Carter - 96 years, 57 days and counting (longest lived U.S. president ever)
    • Ronald Reagan - 93 years, 120 days
    • George H. W. Bush - 94 years, 171 days
    • Bill Clinton - 74 years, 100 days and counting
    • George W. Bush - 74 years, 144 days and counting
    • Barack Obama - 59 years, 115 days and counting
    • Donald Trump - 74 years, 166 days and counting

    There really seems to be a jump in presidential longevity starting around Gerald Ford.

    For comparison, here's the longevity of post-World War II unsuccessful major party presidential nominees (omitting defeated incumbents):
    • Adlai Stevenson - 65 years, 160 days
    • Richard Nixon - 81 years, 104 days
    • Barry Goldwater - 89 years, 148 days
    • Hubert Humphrey - 66 years, 231 days
    • George McGovern - 90 years, 94 days
    • Walter Mondale - 92 years, 327 days and counting
    • Michael Dukakis - 87 years, 24 days and counting
    • Bob Dole - 97 years, 128 days and counting
    • Al Gore - 72 years, 241 days and counting
    • John Kerry - 76 years, 352 days and counting
    • John McCain - 81 years, 362 days
    • Mitt Romney - 73 years, 260 days and counting
    • Hillary Clinton - 73 year, 32 days and counting

    As with the presidents there seems to be an increase in longevity among the potential presidents starting with anyone young enough to have made their presidential bid in the 1970s or later.

    Of course the biggest factor in longevity is genetics. Joe Biden's father lived to be 86 and his mother died at the age of 92.
  • Goodness. Mondale, Dukakis and Dole are all in the "I had no idea they were still alive" category.
  • In one way it's a bit surprising. You would think a political career of that eminence would be quite stressful and life-shortening. It appears not.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    Goodness. Mondale, Dukakis and Dole are all in the "I had no idea they were still alive" category.

    The only one that surprised me when I was compiling that list was Bob Dole. I note that between the two lists there's almost a complete Deathpool list of still-living presidents and their still-living challengers. Add in Joe Biden and you've got the full thirteen.
  • I knew about Dole, but Mondale? Wow.
  • I have been wondering about internal Democratic Party friction about the announced senior positions and appointments to the transition team, and have been pleasantly surprised at the lack of public sniping. Here is an article that talks about the consensus around Biden's picks so far, and pointing to some areas of potential friction. One big one is a certain Rahm Emanuel.
  • Simon Toad wrote: »
    I have been wondering about internal Democratic Party friction about the announced senior positions and appointments to the transition team, and have been pleasantly surprised at the lack of public sniping. Here is an article that talks about the consensus around Biden's picks so far, and pointing to some areas of potential friction. One big one is a certain Rahm Emanuel.

    Here's Paul Krugman, via Twitter, opining about Biden's announced economic team so far.
    I'm very happy with every name I'm hearing. The contrast with the Trump creatures is, of course, overwhelming. But pretty strong contrast even with Obama. Consider Yellen v. Geithner, Neera Tanden v. Peter Orszag. All highly qualified technocrats, but a huge increase in diversity and a lot more known commitment to a progressive agenda.

    Obama of course installed Yellen as vice-chair and then chair of the Federal Reserve, but there's a big difference between a technocratic position like that and a policy making position like Treasury Secretary (if the rumors are true).
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host
    That link doesn’t take me where your quote leads me to think it should.
  • BroJames wrote: »
    That link doesn’t take me where your quote leads me to think it should.

    Sorry. Meant to go here.
  • Simon Toad wrote: »
    I knew about Dole, but Mondale? Wow.

    Mondale is from Minnesota. Those people never die...
  • Oh dear god not Rahm Immanuel.
  • I presume Rahm still swears a lot and shouts a lot and gets very angry a lot? Why appoint someone who's going to cause trouble and hurt all the time?
  • Golden Key wrote: »
    I presume Rahm still swears a lot and shouts a lot and gets very angry a lot? Why appoint someone who's going to cause trouble and hurt all the time?

    I suspect a bigger stumbling block is probably Emanuel helping to cover up a murder.
  • I'm a little creeped out by actuarially informed discussion about Biden's longevity, and I'm wondering where the outrage over Celebrity Death Pool went.
  • I'm a little creeped out by actuarially informed discussion about Biden's longevity, and I'm wondering where the outrage over Celebrity Death Pool went.

    Because this isn't an idle speculation for entertainment purposes, but has real world ramifications that are well beyond an individual's death?
  • I'm wondering where the outrage over Celebrity Death Pool went.

    The Styx.
  • One characteristic of Biden I hadn't quite realised was that some folk see him as 'disabled'. The first disabled president he has been called (forgetting Roosevelt or, perhaps, JFK).

    https://stamma.org/news-features/joe-biden-president-stammer

    A a person who stammers myself, I have a problem with the word 'disabled' in this context.
    Is it something that was even an issue in his (gloriously bigly victorious) campaign?
  • I don't think so, RockyRoger, unless you argue that Trump's depiction of Biden as being impaired mentally was based in part on his habit of pausing at strange points while speaking in public. I am not well versed in how to deal with a stammer, but I understand from The King's Speech (!) that this is a strategy used.

    Maybe Biden is the first person who is open about his disability to be elected President. As to whether having a stammer is to have a disability, my view is that disability is or should be a self-identifying characteristic. That is, a person can choose to identify as a person with a disability or not. I have bi-polar disorder. I tick yes on forms which ask whether I have a disability, but that's about it.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited November 2020
    RockyRoger wrote: »
    One characteristic of Biden I hadn't quite realised was that some folk see him as 'disabled'. The first disabled president he has been called (forgetting Roosevelt or, perhaps, JFK).

    Also Woodrow Wilson, though his stroke-related disability was acquired during his presidency.
  • I may be wrong, but I was sure that FDR's disability was a matter of public record and general knowledge?

    AFZ
  • I may be wrong, but I was sure that FDR's disability was a matter of public record and general knowledge?

    AFZ

    Yep, just checked - Roosevelt was unable to walk unaided when he ran for, and won the Governorship of New York in 1928.
  • I may be wrong, but I was sure that FDR's disability was a matter of public record and general knowledge?

    It was generally known but not widely publicized, if you get the distinction. Roosevelt took great pains to not be publicly photographed in a wheelchair or in any other way that would emphasize his disability. (e.g. Roosevelt had a panel installed in the kneehole of the Resolute Desk* to conceal his leg braces.) In other words it was a case where everyone knew Roosevelt had been disabled by polio but didn't think of him in those terms unless prompted.


    *Interestingly the Seal of the United States that's carved into that panel of the Resolute Desk is one of the very few examples of the seal in the White House where the eagle's head is facing the arrows (war) rather than the olive branch (peace).
  • Many thanks, Simon Toad, for your wise insights. I read the 'King's Speech' but found the film too emotionally involving to watch. Biden's speech patterns may well be how he controls his stammer. I take my hat off to him. I don't tick the 'disabled' box myself, but my dear wife, a special needs advisor, says I perhaps should as this would take some pressure off my need to perform.

    Sorry for the tangent!
  • My disability placard got us some prime parking spots when we went to Europe, just saying.
  • legit Gramps, I'm positive. It would be great to have a series of photos with your car parked in front of various landmarks!
  • Simon Toad wrote: »
    legit Gramps, I'm positive. It would be great to have a series of photos with your car parked in front of various landmarks!

    Sorry, that was two years ago. Next time we go over, I will take some for you.
  • {Photo tangent.}

    Sounds fun. Maybe, once the pandemic has quieted enough for this to be safe, we could resurrect the old Ship game of sending a real toy around to each other, taking and posting a pic, then sending the toy to someone else. I know we had Sven the Moose. Maybe another, too. I'm not sure whether the related thread was in Heaven, All Saints, or Circus.
  • Brilliant!!
  • I'm game!
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited December 2020
    I'm just impressed by the dignified and straightforward way Joe Biden is handling himself. The joint Biden/Harris interview by CNN's Jake Tapper was a good watch, showing both mutual support and mutual respect. Some, but not all, of the questions were attempts to explore possible differences of outlook and were handled well by both of them.
  • I had such fun with Sven, I'd love to do it again.
  • Barnabas--

    Cool. Good to hear. It may help that Kamala was a good friend of Bo Biden, Joe's late son.
  • Possibly of use:

    Wikipedia already has an article on the "Inauguration of Joe Biden". Plans, protest permits, etc.

    Down at the bottom of the page, there's a mass of links to Wiki articles about everything to do with Joe Biden. Also links to articles about all previous US presidential inaugurations.

    Have fun!
  • In connection with today's news that Morocco is recognising Israel, I saw a comment by a usually well-informed source that Saudi Arabia is about to do the same. The last I had heard was that the Saudis had been waiting for Trump to get re-elected before they took that final, decisive step. So if now they're going ahead anyway, does that mean that Biden has okayed the deal?
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