Biden/Harris Reflections and Prognostications

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  • In connection with today's news that Morocco is recognising Israel, I saw a comment by a usually well-informed source that Saudi Arabia is about to do the same. The last I had heard was that the Saudis had been waiting for Trump to get re-elected before they took that final, decisive step. So if now they're going ahead anyway, does that mean that Biden has okayed the deal?

    Either that, or the Saudis decided to hand the Biden administration a fait accompli and dare them to do anything to reverse it. Mostly I suspect the Saudis are operating for Saudi, not American, convenience. Their long-term goal for a while has been to form a loose Middle Eastern alliance (including Israel, if possible) against Iran.
  • Why would they need Biden's approval? And what possible reason could Biden have for objecting to Saudi recognition of a state the US has recognized for more than 70 years?
  • What, if anything, is known about Biden's Middle East policies? I remember there had been mumbling about moving the embassy back to Tel Aviv, but that may have been just wishful thinking on the part of people whose top priority is keeping OPEC happy.
  • Dave W wrote: »
    Why would they need Biden's approval? And what possible reason could Biden have for objecting to Saudi recognition of a state the US has recognized for more than 70 years?
    I can easily imagine that the Saudis saw it as an opportunity for winning certain concessions in exchange for doing what Trump wanted, just as Morocco won U.S. recognition of its annexation of Western Sahara.
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Their long-term goal for a while has been to form a loose Middle Eastern alliance (including Israel, if possible) against Iran.
    Their long-term goal is to be recognised as spiritual and political leader of the Middle East; Iran is their chief competitor for the role. Erdogan's Turkey however seems to be trying to throw its hat in the ring.

  • I also recently read that Morocco is planning to officially annex Western Sahara in the eminent future. I wonder if these two things are related.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    edited December 2020
    This "peace deal" is an alliance against Iran. The alliance members, especially the undeclared member Saudi Arabia and the Israelis are seeking to limit the Biden Administration's policy towards Iran. They do not want to see the USA re-join the European effort to develop relations with Iran through the revival of the Obama era agreement.

    The "peace deal" might in the fulness of time be seen as a stepping stone to peace between Israel and the Muslim world, but I am no Nostradamus. If it becomes a stepping stone, that will be a consequence unintended by the parties,
  • *imminent
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    edited December 2020
    Dave W wrote: »
    Why would they need Biden's approval? And what possible reason could Biden have for objecting to Saudi recognition of a state the US has recognized for more than 70 years?
    I can easily imagine that the Saudis saw it as an opportunity for winning certain concessions in exchange for doing what Trump wanted, just as Morocco won U.S. recognition of its annexation of Western Sahara.
    Possibly. Are you suggesting Biden may have approved US concessions to the Saudis in return for their recognition of Israel?

    I suspect it's much more of an "enemy of my enemy" thing - both the Saudis and the Israelis are more opposed to the Iranians than they are to each other.
  • Ray SunshineRay Sunshine Shipmate
    edited December 2020
    Dave W wrote: »
    Are you suggesting Biden may have approved US concessions to the Saudis in return for their recognition of Israel?
    Back in September, when the UAE and Bahrain signed their agreements recognising Israel, people started asking whether Saudi Arabia was going to follow suit. The answer, from what we were told at the time, was that it probably would in due course, but first the Saudis were going to wait and make sure that Trump got elected to his second term. That answer would make no sense if recognising Israel was just something the Saudis wanted to do for reasons of their own. It could only mean that it was part of a bigger regional deal, and that if Trump lost the election, that deal might very well be off the table. Well, here we are with a Biden presidency due to start in a month's time, and people are saying that the Saudi-Israel deal is on again, after all. If that's true, then something must have happened to reassure the Saudis that it's worth their while to go ahead.
  • I find it hard to believe there's anything Biden would offer the Saudis and Israelis that Trump wouldn't be more willing to hand over. Maybe the Saudis are just finally getting over their last pangs of conscience about the Palestinians.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    edited December 2020
    Dave W wrote: »
    Are you suggesting Biden may have approved US concessions to the Saudis in return for their recognition of Israel?
    Back in September, when the UAE and Bahrain signed their agreements recognising Israel, people started asking whether Saudi Arabia was going to follow suit. The answer, from what we were told at the time, was that it probably would in due course, but first the Saudis were going to wait and make sure that Trump got elected to his second term. That answer would make no sense if recognising Israel was just something the Saudis wanted to do for reasons of their own. It could only mean that it was part of a bigger regional deal, and that if Trump lost the election, that deal might very well be off the table. Well, here we are with a Biden presidency due to start in a month's time, and people are saying that the Saudi-Israel deal is on again, after all. If that's true, then something must have happened to reassure the Saudis that it's worth their while to go ahead.

    Another alternative would be to check the bolded assumption. I have never descended into the bog of Arabian Peninsula politics, just sort of flown over on my way to Jerusalem. But I wonder whether this is really a deal between Netanyahu and whoever is calling the shots in Saudi, with the smaller states signing on first at the behest of their dominant neighbour. That would put the US in the position of Great and Powerful Friend to the anti-Iran alliance, rather than central to it.

    The Saudis would be most concerned about their leadership position in the large and influential Sunni Muslim world put at risk by their recognition of the reality of Israel. If other Muslim countries join first, in a parade as it were, the Saudis have a bit of a fig leaf. They followed others, rather than leading the procession.

  • Simon Toad wrote: »
    If other Muslim countries join first, in a parade as it were, the Saudis have a bit of a fig leaf. They followed others, rather than leading the procession.
    I agree, I think that's what it's all about. Apart from the Palestinians themselves, there was no great hooha in the Arab world when the UAE and Bahrein led the way. That evidently showed the Saudis that it was safe to go ahead, which raises the question, so why didn't they? What are they still waiting for?

  • Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are Time's People of the Year for 2020. According to them this is the first time a vice president (technically vice president-elect) has earned the designation.
  • Simon Toad wrote: »
    If other Muslim countries join first, in a parade as it were, the Saudis have a bit of a fig leaf. They followed others, rather than leading the procession.
    I agree, I think that's what it's all about. Apart from the Palestinians themselves, there was no great hooha in the Arab world when the UAE and Bahrein led the way. That evidently showed the Saudis that it was safe to go ahead, which raises the question, so why didn't they? What are they still waiting for?

    I think what they are waiting for is about legitimacy in the Muslim world. Its not only about the competition for leadership in the Middle East. Its about the whole of Islam, including Muslims in the subcontinent and South East Asia. The Saudis are leaders of this large and powerful bloc of nations, whose power is hidden because of its latency. They are positioning in this community, not in the community of which our nations are a part.

    That's why I think the US political situation is only one factor to put into the mix. How the US handles Iran is important, but this "peace agreement" is the public face of a political alliance. Its fundamentals don't depend upon US attitudes to Iran. They would just prefer the Trump Administration position to the Obama Administration's position. Hezbollah is still going to try to kill Israel, and the war in Yemen will continue, whatever the US does.
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host, 8th Day Host
    I have split out most of the Israel/Palestine discussion into its own thread, and I suggest that discussion continues there.

    BroJames, Purgatory Host
  • Golden Key wrote: »

    An appointment has been made: California Sec'y. of State, Alex Padilla ...
    Hispanic, has already won a statewide election ... Good choice ...
  • Simon Toad wrote: »

    This "peace deal" is an alliance against Iran. The alliance members, especially the undeclared member Saudi Arabia and the Israelis are seeking to limit the Biden Administration's policy towards Iran. They do not want to see the USA re-join the European effort to develop relations with Iran through the revival of the Obama era agreement.

    The "peace deal" might in the fulness of time be seen as a stepping stone to peace between Israel and the Muslim world, but I am no Nostradamus. If it becomes a stepping stone, that will be a consequence unintended by the parties,

    Biden-Harris will immediately try to rejoin the non-proliferation agreement with Iran ...
  • Simon Toad wrote: »

    This "peace deal" is an alliance against Iran. The alliance members, especially the undeclared member Saudi Arabia and the Israelis are seeking to limit the Biden Administration's policy towards Iran. They do not want to see the USA re-join the European effort to develop relations with Iran through the revival of the Obama era agreement.

    The "peace deal" might in the fulness of time be seen as a stepping stone to peace between Israel and the Muslim world, but I am no Nostradamus. If it becomes a stepping stone, that will be a consequence unintended by the parties,

    Biden-Harris will immediately try to rejoin the non-proliferation agreement with Iran ...

    Almost certainly. A lot of this late maneuvering by the Trump administration* (as well as the Saudis, who realize the clock is ticking even if Trump hasn't admitted it yet) seems geared towards making that as difficult and complicated as possible. Whether it works (and what "works" means in this context) remains to be seen.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    Simon Toad wrote: »

    This "peace deal" is an alliance against Iran. The alliance members, especially the undeclared member Saudi Arabia and the Israelis are seeking to limit the Biden Administration's policy towards Iran. They do not want to see the USA re-join the European effort to develop relations with Iran through the revival of the Obama era agreement.

    The "peace deal" might in the fulness of time be seen as a stepping stone to peace between Israel and the Muslim world, but I am no Nostradamus. If it becomes a stepping stone, that will be a consequence unintended by the parties,

    Biden-Harris will immediately try to rejoin the non-proliferation agreement with Iran ...

    Almost certainly. A lot of this late maneuvering by the Trump administration* (as well as the Saudis, who realize the clock is ticking even if Trump hasn't admitted it yet) seems geared towards making that as difficult and complicated as possible. Whether it works (and what "works" means in this context) remains to be seen.

    Yes ... This is complicated ...
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