Covid: looking back

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  • SandemaniacSandemaniac Shipmate
    The problems in the UK include the endemic nature of the virus, the woeful excuse for a track and trace service (link to BMJ blog) - which, having cost £37bn is not obviously reporting anything nor has for months, and the "error strewn" tracing app (link to medical device website), which has also stopped bombarding me with advertisements, having only reached 24% of the required 60% of the population to be effective.

    If you want a handle on what you can do with £37 billion, NASA's latest Mars mission, complete with rover and helicopter, cost about 2 billion. So that's 18 and a half Mars missions frittered away, largely to party donors and the like.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    Yes, the Tories are appalling. They have done tremendous damage. My upset in this thread has resulted from reading peoples' comments to the effect that the UK is already buggered. You are not.

    I missed out a further crucial plank of both our lockdown and our economic bounce. We threw money at people, a scheme to pay the wages of workers stood down up to $1500 a fortnight, and the same amount to the self-employed. That was phased out at the end of March. In addition, a once-off payment was available to workers without sick leave working in essential services so they could stay home if exposed to the virus, or if they were awaiting the result of a test. This was particularly important in the casualised workforces of aged care and disability work.
  • SandemaniacSandemaniac Shipmate
    What does seem to be working are the vaccines, but they have not been rolled out to anyone under 40 yet, so there's a significant pool of people to continue transmitting the disease when we come out of this lockdown completely, as so many of them are not due to get a vaccine for a few more weeks after June 21 - the date for all to be offered the vaccine is the end of July for a first vaccine, let alone the two/three weeks to make sure it's effective or a second vaccine.

    This is the bit we should be worrying about. The restrictions are being relaxed when there is still a sizeable chunk of the population unvaccinated, who may not be as likely to be severely affected by the virus, but can still spread it (including to those who, for whatever reason, have been unable to have a vaccine). I spotted somewhere today that water companies are monitoring sewage for viral DNA, which seems to give about a fortnight's warning of impending outbreaks, but do we trust the government to act on such a warning, and to act in time? The word "No!" comes to mind.

    The virus mutates by chance so the more cases, silent or otherwise, there are, the more likely that new mutations will emerge. Thus far vaccines seem to have handled the ones that have occurred, but what's the chance that a radical new mutant springs up? Again, the more people who have the virus, the more chance of that occurring, and if the people affected are younger, more likely to be mildly affected, more likely to be asymptomatic, could it creep up on us unawares?

    Plus, what effect will the crisis in India have on vaccine production? The world's biggest CMOs (Clinical Manufacturing Organisations) are in India, and they were going at full tilt. Could we face the triple blow of a fall in vaccine availability, a new surge in cases, *and* lockdown being lifted? Then what? And don't even mention this burning desire to open up international travel again...



  • One of the issues in the November lockdown were the rising rates of Covid infections in some areas (link to Zoe study) particularly in areas in higher tiers, so there was some doubt as to how well lockdowns do work when we have an endemic infection.

    There are a lot of "essential" workers. Food production, distribution, packaging and sale. Medical workers. Those who care for the elderly or those who otherwise need help. Essential workers in power stations, fuel production and distribution, postal workers, and so on: it takes a lot of infrastructure to keep our society operating.

    None of that stuff can stop for two weeks.

    Which goes to say that one of the big challenges with lockdowns is that you can't actually lock everything down.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    edited May 6
    Here is the statement released by NSW health following the discovery of a mystery case in Sydney. You will see that they have published the guy's movements. Its fun to work out what they were doing.

    Bugger. There is a second case on this list so the movements are not as clear. Basically the bloke went to three BBQ retailers, a servo and a butcher.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    edited May 6
    I think our scientists have/had it about right. Lock down to get the numbers as low as possible. Meanwhile vaccinate everyone and boost once a year for variants. Then allow slow opening up of everything, being sure to test and trace as you go.

    If the government hadn’t locked down too late, then had the reckless unlocking and ‘eat out to help out’ nonsense over summer and autumn we’d be well on our way in the U.K. by now.

    Hopefully we will reach the stage of almost everyone vaccinated soon.
  • But the 30 - 39 year old tranche doesn't start being vaccinated until 25 May, with first vaccines expected to be completed by 2 July, second by the end of August. That rather suggests we're opening up too fast as many people under 40 will not have had the chance to be vaccinated before the 21 June opening up.

    @Simon Toad - you're talking individual cases that you can track, trace, isolate and then stop transmission. We've been well beyond individual cases since probably November 2019, when the virus was already in the UK, but not recognised. Definitely it was already endemic by February 2020, so too many asymptomatic cases in the community to detect and isolate at that stage.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    The UK has another chance to get close enough to zero now that the vaccine is dropping numbers. But I guess that won't happen...
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    Well, they’re probably not going to criminalize citizens abroad for attempting to return.

    People do die of other things in Australia, don’t they?
  • Currently we have 2000 + daily cases and a very expensive useless track and trace service.

    (And sewage tracking.)
  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    Dave W wrote: »
    Well, they’re probably not going to criminalize citizens abroad for attempting to return.

    People do die of other things in Australia, don’t they?

    They try not to

  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    Really? What’s the speed limit in Australia?
  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    Probably varies from state to state but in NSW maximum 110 km/hr on freeway; otherwise 40-60 km/ hr in urban areas unless instructed otherwise.
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    Not absolutely committed to preventing road fatalities at all costs, then.
  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    Compulsory seat belts and random breath testing has made a huge difference in the last 40 years.

    It ain’t like driving in your part of the world.
  • Fawkes CatFawkes Cat Shipmate
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    The UK has another chance to get close enough to zero now that the vaccine is dropping numbers. But I guess that won't happen...

    No. Because it's not possible. Let's rehearse and elaborate the argument again:

    Covid is now deep into the UK. That means that there will be asymptomatic cases causing other asymptomatic cases. From time to time some of these asymptomatic cases will lead to symptomatic cases which will cause trouble.

    Can we detect all the asymptomatic cases? No, because (i) there have been a number of poor government decisions that mean that quite a lot of people do not want to be found to be positive, but more importantly because (ii) there is no 100% accurate diagnostic test - so even if the entire population was taking a daily test, not all cases would be identified. Against this, there is the argument that permanently reducing the transmission rate (R) to less than 1 will eventually lead to elimination - but for both the theoretical (2) and practical (1) reasons above I would argue that this is not a prospect that we should rely on.

    Again, to rehearse an argument I've already presented, the UK is not the same as Australia. We can't start from the same place, so following the same route won't take us to the same destination.
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    Sojourner wrote: »
    Compulsory seat belts and random breath testing has made a huge difference in the last 40 years.

    It ain’t like driving in your part of the world.
    Sure - but again, not absolutely committed to preventing road fatalities at all costs. So why are they acceptable? Because zero isn’t the right answer, it seems.
  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    Sigh....oh well, back to COVID. As Fawkes Cat has pointed out, Britain has missed the bus, due largely to the incompetence if your rulers in that respect.
  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    Not our rulers - I'm American. We've had a whole other class of incompetence over here. But even with a less malign, more competent government I think Australian-style suppression was never in the cards for us; we had out of control spread before anyone knew.
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    Yes, there has been suppression - between States, within cities, and on entry from overseas. But it has worked in keeping infection rates very low. At a time when India is recording well over 300,000 cases a day, NSW has had 2 in a week.
  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    Dave W wrote: »
    Not our rulers - I'm American. We've had a whole other class of incompetence over here. But even with a less malign, more competent government I think Australian-style suppression was never in the cards for us; we had out of control spread before anyone knew.

    So you are American? News to me.

    However there was COVID in Oz too “before anyone knew”; biggish outbreaks in NSW (outer Sydney) and Melbourne. And those idiots in Britain sat on their hands and did bugger-all despite the carnage in Europe-did they think that being “Fairest Isle, all isles excelling “would save them?

  • Dave WDave W Shipmate
    Apparently a "biggish outbreak" in Australia is what the small state of Massachusetts calls "Thursday".
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Australia closed its borders on March 20, 2020, when it had 875 known cases to date. The same day, the US had racked up 17,439 known cases. There were 1,219 known cases in California, not yet hard hit -- there were 8,455 in the state of New York. That was with highly inadequate testing capabilities; loads of cases were missed. @Sojourner and @Simon Toad can miss me with that "you coulda just done what we did" bullshit.
  • HuiaHuia Shipmate
    edited May 7
    I think it's arrogant to say of another country, "You should have done what we did" because circumstances differ so much. For example until someone in the UK pointed it out I wasn't aware that the country was so dependent on importing food, which opens them to extra risk.

    Culture and systems of governance differ widely too, even if there had been someone in the White House who respected what the scientists were saying, there many not be such unanimity amongst the States that a particular course was the best to follow. (and given the geographical spread of the population, variations in climate etc one solution may not fit all states). On the whole people in NZ accepted the lockdown, (although there were people who broke the rules) I am not sure if it would have been accepted as widely there.

    I may be wrong in saying this (and am not sure how to express it, so forgive me if it sounds clumsy), but I think New Zealanders are more used to governmental involvement in our lives.

    I wish I could remember the title of a book I read at the beginning of the year where the American author who came here to study NZ values compared with US values argued that in the US the core value was freedom , where as in NZ it was fairness. He reached that conclusion by comparing what politicians were promising in order to get elected, as well as analysing the history, values and circumstances of those who settled in the 2 countries. I don't know if what he said was true of The US was accurate, but I think he was right about NZ.

    OK, so NZ got it right on some things, but some of those were beyond our conscious control. I still think that (so far) we have been very fortunate and that being 3 islands at the bottom of the world, which got due warning from the experiences of other countries, and had recently elected a government which won a landslide victory in the elections, and that listened to the scientists, all worked in our favour.

    I don't think all this leaves us in a position of high moral standing - to be able to say what any other country should do - to a large extent we got lucky, and were able to capitalise on that good fortune, and I am very grateful for that.
  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    Did I say that Ruth? Re read for context please. Mind you ( despite what I think of our political masters) they did listen to the experts and act on the advice given.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    I'm not talking so much about the USA. I think everyone would agree that the country would have been better off with Clinton in the WH, but you would still have had the GOP and Fox talking about freedom and the Democratic conspiracy to turn you into a giant communist gulag. Parts of the US did very well, it must be said. You guys have to rely on the Hail Mary vaccines, with the GOP being so irresponsible.

    That said, the numbers you posted @Ruth don't bear out the position you put. New York did lock down and control the first outbreak. If you deny the virus its ability to transmit itself, you eliminate it, asymptomatic or not. I'm unsure of the measures taken in CA, but I think they were pretty good too. The problem you guys had was all the knuckle-dragging Republican states who thought that the Virus only killed Democrats. So the virus kept circulating.

    While it is irrefutably the case that Australia is a paradise on earth compared with every other country in the world, I am not talking about the past. I am putting the position that Britain could eliminate the virus right now if it could find the political will to do so. The US just doesn't have any chance to do that, because of the GOP. Johnson doesn't deny covid. He doesn't deny the social distancing measures. He purports to rely on expert advice. My impression is that he just doesn't want to piss off his constituency, which is the business community.

    However, I did get a little upset at some of the excuses for inaction some British shipmates were posting earlier in the thread. That might have caused me to stray into the area of criticism of past actions. But my thrust is: Vaccines are not going to solve this. Think of them as a tool. Vaccines put you in a position where you have a chance to get yourselves in a position where testing and tracing works. Once you are in that position, you can accurately ID outbreaks and deal with them by quarantining primary and secondary contacts without any lockdown of more than a few days.

    @Fawkes Cat I understand your position. I'm pretty sure I've already said why I think you are wrong. Essentially, lockdowns and social distancing and masks etc eliminate asymptomatic transmission too.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    Dave W wrote: »
    Well, they’re probably not going to criminalize citizens abroad for attempting to return.

    People do die of other things in Australia, don’t they?

    Here is a video that details some of the ways you can die in Australia. It does not contain any footage of actual death, and no bikies were harmed in the making of it. However, it does contain material that might offend some people, including the disparagement of religion, the objectification of women, ethnic stereotyping and the glorification of drug use.
  • HuiaHuia Shipmate
    edited May 7
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    While it is irrefutably the case that Australia is a paradise on earth compared with every other country in the world, I am not talking about the past.

    Well I would rather be here than Sydney at the moment.
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Johnson doesn't deny covid. He doesn't deny the social distancing measures. He purports to rely on expert advice. My impression is that he just doesn't want to piss off his constituency, which is the business community.
    What Johnson purports bears a largely coincidental relationship to what he does.
    Boris "fuck business" Johnson's constituency is not the business community: in so far as he has a constituency beyond people prepared to let him shag them and chums of his chums, it is largely the right-wing press.

  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    Dafyd wrote: »
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Johnson doesn't deny covid. He doesn't deny the social distancing measures. He purports to rely on expert advice. My impression is that he just doesn't want to piss off his constituency, which is the business community.
    What Johnson purports bears a largely coincidental relationship to what he does.
    Boris "fuck business" Johnson's constituency is not the business community: in so far as he has a constituency beyond people prepared to let him shag them and chums of his chums, it is largely the right-wing press.

    This.

    And @Huia I wish we had NZ politicians and values. Our lurch to the right is very depressing, especially today as we’ve just had another inexplicable (to me) lurch.

  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    Huia wrote: »
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    While it is irrefutably the case that Australia is a paradise on earth compared with every other country in the world, I am not talking about the past.

    Well I would rather be here than Sydney at the moment.


    No doubt you would bit it is a bit warmer here( right now)

    I do however wish we had Jacinda at the helm....
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    Huia wrote: »
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    While it is irrefutably the case that Australia is a paradise on earth compared with every other country in the world, I am not talking about the past.

    Well I would rather be here than Sydney at the moment.

    Fair enough, Huia. We were very close to being the same country, once.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    Dafyd wrote: »
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Johnson doesn't deny covid. He doesn't deny the social distancing measures. He purports to rely on expert advice. My impression is that he just doesn't want to piss off his constituency, which is the business community.
    What Johnson purports bears a largely coincidental relationship to what he does.
    Boris "fuck business" Johnson's constituency is not the business community: in so far as he has a constituency beyond people prepared to let him shag them and chums of his chums, it is largely the right-wing press.

    Really? Who's funding the tories then?
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Dafyd wrote: »
    Boris "fuck business" Johnson's constituency is not the business community: in so far as he has a constituency beyond people prepared to let him shag them and chums of his chums, it is largely the right-wing press.
    Really? Who's funding the tories then?
    That is a question. Johnson maintains he paid for his flat out of his own pocket. He doesn't say who originally put up the money or if he would have paid it back if there hadn't been an uproar about it.

    The Tory Party declared donations come from a selection of individual wealthy backers, none of which are Russian oligarchs because that would definitely be illegal, but whoever is funding the Tory Party it is definitely not acting in the interests of those parts of the business community who rely on undisrupted trade with Europe, which is most of it in one way or another.
  • DooneDoone Shipmate
    Boogie wrote: »
    Dafyd wrote: »
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Johnson doesn't deny covid. He doesn't deny the social distancing measures. He purports to rely on expert advice. My impression is that he just doesn't want to piss off his constituency, which is the business community.
    What Johnson purports bears a largely coincidental relationship to what he does.
    Boris "fuck business" Johnson's constituency is not the business community: in so far as he has a constituency beyond people prepared to let him shag them and chums of his chums, it is largely the right-wing press.

    This.

    And @Huia I wish we had NZ politicians and values. Our lurch to the right is very depressing, especially today as we’ve just had another inexplicable (to me) lurch.

    I totally agree, @Boogie.
  • My reflection today is that the world can come together and make vaccines. What else can it do? (notwithstanding that we're struggling with fairness in distribution of even the raw materials and equipment to make them, and private companies which got lots of public funding are resisting sharing the patents)
  • Marvin the MartianMarvin the Martian Admin Emeritus
    My reflection today is that the world can come together and make vaccines. What else can it do?

    Anything else that unambiguously, directly and immediately benefits every single individual one of us, I suppose. Trouble is, absent an alien invasion that we can all unite to fight against I’m not sure how many such things there are.
  • My reflection today is that the world can come together and make vaccines. What else can it do?

    Anything else that unambiguously, directly and immediately benefits every single individual one of us, I suppose. Trouble is, absent an alien invasion that we can all unite to fight against I’m not sure how many such things there are.

    Climate change. But like anything which is gradual, it isn't enough of an immediate crisis. Not withstanding the FUD by corporations like Exxon as above.
  • Marvin the MartianMarvin the Martian Admin Emeritus
    Reversing climate change is neither immediate nor an unambiguous and direct benefit to everyone.
  • HuiaHuia Shipmate
    Sojourner wrote: »
    I do however wish we had Jacinda at the helm....

    Having the PM and cabinet we do has made a difference, but as I said in my earliest post, I think the responses to COVID in different countries have been influenced by culture, history, geographical position in the world and how much forewarning the country had. I would think that there are other factors too, like density of population and a slew of others that I don't have the imagination or knowledge to be aware of.

    I know that some of the factors that powered the NZ response were the deficits in our medical system. There were only a small number of ventilators in the country, and we have far fewer beds in ICU (intensive care units) than Australia has. There was also the fact that winter was coming and every winter hospitals are over stretched by the influx of 'flu patients. So the winter fuel allowance was temporarily doubled for those on low incomes and free flu shots were more widely available, to keep hospital beds clear for possible COVID patients.
  • SojournerSojourner Shipmate
    The local response was close to 100% flu vaccination last year; first time in history that hospitals weren’t jammed full of flu cases last winter; hope the same prevails this year
  • HuiaHuia Shipmate
    I didn't need to use an asthma inhaler or have a cold last winter. I am hoping this winter will be the same. I think people stayed at home more if they were coughing, and both the distancing and extra handwashing would have helped.

    Last year we had far fewer people in hospital with the flu too.
    This year I have also noticed that more pharmacies are offering flu injections.
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