Brexit thread III

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  • Boogie wrote: »
    No. The Lib Dem’s are right. Prevent the car crash.

    No. It's completely wrong because by their anti-Labour rhetoric they are making the car crash more likely.

    I agree with your starting point 1000% - stopping No Deal, stopping Brexit is the priority. It is what the Lib Dems are sanctimoniously claiming to believe in. Which is why I am furious at their hypocrisy.

    The only way to stop Brexit realistically is for Labour to be forming a government. Discouraging Remainers from voting Labour in Con/Lab marginals is obscene in this context. Which is what she is doing. And she is far too clever a political operative to be doing it inadvertently.

    Think of it this way: if the LibDems stood up and said - much like the Greens have - Labour have been very slow to get it right on Brexit but we will work with them to get a People's Vote, that would have a big effect on Remainers who need to be encouraged to vote Labour.

    I am not interested in arguments about our electoral system. I am not interested in arguments about what Labour has done so far.

    I am only interested in what will work because this is a time of crisis and Boris will only he stopped by smart and brave action.

    If that costs the LibDems 5 or 10 seats they might take off the Tories and upto 7 from Labour, then I don't give a flying fuck.

    And here's the killer; neither should they: 20 seats and Labour on 280 will give them a lot of influence. 40 seats and the Tories at 330 and they'll have none.

    AFZ
  • Rumours that Boris would consider suspending parliament again. Farce or tragedy?

    I saw a bit of Boris's interview with Laura K. What a load of flaccid nonsense, with lots of smirking, not by Laura.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    edited September 17
    I’m not a Lib Dem voter, I’m a member of the Green Party.

    But I will vote Lib Dem if there is no Green candidate for me to choose.
  • I will vote to get rid of the Tories, that means in a Tory seat, the 2nd candidate, except Farage. I live in a Tory marginal, with Labour second. Voting Lib Dem here hands the election to Boris.
  • I think Swinson's position is a big fuck off to leave voters. Of course, some people want to say exactly that, but wow, it's really healing the divisions, (not). It's also purely symbolic.
    The LibDems aren't a leave party though. The party position is that the best for Britain is to remain in the EU, what's wrong with standing clearly on that basis?

    Though equally the LibDems have long been a pro-referendum party. So it's interesting to think about how those two aspirations can cohere - because on the one hand they wanted to hold a referendum, but on the other hand they are committing never to implement one outcome of that referendum.
  • Exactly. This whole thing has been depressingly awash with opportunism.

    Watching some of the HoC debates, I hear some principled stands being taken by individual MPs which I admire. But somehow none of them seem to make it into actual policy proposals.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited September 17
    Boogie wrote: »
    No. The Lib Dem’s are right. Prevent the car crash.

    No. It's completely wrong because by their anti-Labour rhetoric they are making the car crash more likely.

    I agree with your starting point 1000% - stopping No Deal, stopping Brexit is the priority. It is what the Lib Dems are sanctimoniously claiming to believe in. Which is why I am furious at their hypocrisy.

    The only way to stop Brexit realistically is for Labour to be forming a government. Discouraging Remainers from voting Labour in Con/Lab marginals is obscene in this context. Which is what she is doing. And she is far too clever a political operative to be doing it inadvertently.

    Think of it this way: if the LibDems stood up and said - much like the Greens have - Labour have been very slow to get it right on Brexit but we will work with them to get a People's Vote, that would have a big effect on Remainers who need to be encouraged to vote Labour.

    I am not interested in arguments about our electoral system. I am not interested in arguments about what Labour has done so far.

    I am only interested in what will work because this is a time of crisis and Boris will only he stopped by smart and brave action.

    If that costs the LibDems 5 or 10 seats they might take off the Tories and upto 7 from Labour, then I don't give a flying fuck.

    And here's the killer; neither should they: 20 seats and Labour on 280 will give them a lot of influence. 40 seats and the Tories at 330 and they'll have none.

    AFZ

    If Labour was clearly an anti-Brexit party, I'd have some sympathy with your view. But they aren't, they've dithered and fence-sat and buggered about for three years so I don't have much. Let's see what happens at their party conference.

    I live in a LibDem/Tory battle Dorset seat (LD until 2015) so if Labour stood down here we'd have a good chance to get the (repugnant ERG-type, like Rees-Mogg's mini-me) bugger out. Will you advise Labour to vote LD here?
  • I've just renewed my car tax online. The relevant GovUK website page states unequivocally that 'Great Britain leaves the European Union on 31st October'.

    :anguished:

    Great Britain does not include Northern Ireland? This could solve the hard border problem
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    The Lib Dem leader was in the Standard last night she was very clear on their position. They are for a referendum, but in the case of an election they will lead on remain. This position got a big majority at their conference
  • They are for a referendum, but on the other hand, not.
  • sionisais wrote: »
    I've just renewed my car tax online. The relevant GovUK website page states unequivocally that 'Great Britain leaves the European Union on 31st October'.

    :anguished:

    Great Britain does not include Northern Ireland? This could solve the hard border problem

    Not for the purposes of vehicle registration, which is what BF was engaging with. NI has a separate system.
  • The actual page says "UK" (or at least it did when I went and checked, see the screenshot upthread).
  • Boogie wrote: »
    No. The Lib Dem’s are right. Prevent the car crash.

    No. It's completely wrong because by their anti-Labour rhetoric they are making the car crash more likely.

    I agree with your starting point 1000% - stopping No Deal, stopping Brexit is the priority. It is what the Lib Dems are sanctimoniously claiming to believe in. Which is why I am furious at their hypocrisy.

    The only way to stop Brexit realistically is for Labour to be forming a government. Discouraging Remainers from voting Labour in Con/Lab marginals is obscene in this context. Which is what she is doing. And she is far too clever a political operative to be doing it inadvertently.

    Think of it this way: if the LibDems stood up and said - much like the Greens have - Labour have been very slow to get it right on Brexit but we will work with them to get a People's Vote, that would have a big effect on Remainers who need to be encouraged to vote Labour.

    I am not interested in arguments about our electoral system. I am not interested in arguments about what Labour has done so far.

    I am only interested in what will work because this is a time of crisis and Boris will only he stopped by smart and brave action.

    If that costs the LibDems 5 or 10 seats they might take off the Tories and upto 7 from Labour, then I don't give a flying fuck.

    And here's the killer; neither should they: 20 seats and Labour on 280 will give them a lot of influence. 40 seats and the Tories at 330 and they'll have none.

    AFZ

    If Labour was clearly an anti-Brexit party, I'd have some sympathy with your view. But they aren't, they've dithered and fence-sat and buggered about for three years so I don't have much. Let's see what happens at their party conference.

    I live in a LibDem/Tory battle Dorset seat (LD until 2015) so if Labour stood down here we'd have a good chance to get the (repugnant ERG-type, like Rees-Mogg's mini-me) bugger out. Will you advise Labour to vote LD here?

    Yes!

    And living in New Forest East, I will be voting Lib Dem.

    Well I thought I was. In the council elections we literally could only vote Lib Dem or Conservative. Those were the only candidates. I was expecting a similar pattern in the GE. But having looked up the exact numbers for this very post; I see that Labour are in 2nd place... interesting.

    I would not advise people to tactically vote if I wasn't prepared to do it myself.

    Once again you're making my point for me; Labour's Brexit position has not been sufficiently Remain but now that it clearly has got to a sensible place, it is stunningly counter-productive to hit out at Labour at this point.

    Labour policy is People's Vote with Remain on the ballot. I understand why people want more but wanting that is not a viable route to stopping Brexit. A Labour-led government is.

    AFZ
  • Yes, in a curious way Swinson's lurch to revoke seems to leave only Labour with the promise of a referendum. Although, apparently if Lib Dems have a mediocre performance, they are for a referendum.

    I expect Labour conference to be strongly pro-remain, but it's unlikely to reach the manifesto in a pure form. But tactical voting is obvious. I would grit my teeth and vote LD in an appropriate seat, despite 'Miss Fracking''.
  • Yes, in a curious way Swinson's lurch to revoke seems to leave only Labour with the promise of a referendum. Although, apparently if Lib Dems have a mediocre performance, they are for a referendum.

    If they have anything other than a winning performance (unlikely) they are for a referendum.

    So they are essentially for a revoke, but only theoretically.
  • The fact of the matter is that not all Remainers - perhaps even only a minority of Remainers - put Remain above all other considerations.

    There are socialist-progressive Remainers and there are pragmatic-free-market Remainers. A Remain alliance needs to attract Remainers who think Swinson is a Tory-enabling austerity-pusher and Remainers who think Corbyn is a Venezuelan Marxist. At the moment, the most plausible path to a Remainer victory is for the former to vote Labour and the latter to vote Lib-Dem, and for a weak Corbyn government to limp on long enough to hold a referendum.
  • I would say that a Labour govt is the only route to remain, leaving aside Swinson's fantasies. As to voting, that's a question of keeping out the Tories, hence tactical voting. Of course, there could be exceptional circumstances, but leaving those aside, the Labour conference will be strongly remain. If the Lib Dems come to my door, asking for my vote, in a seat where Labour are narrowly second, I will assume they're not serious.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    edited September 17
    Yes, in a curious way Swinson's lurch to revoke seems to leave only Labour with the promise of a referendum. Although, apparently if Lib Dems have a mediocre performance, they are for a referendum.

    If they have anything other than a winning performance (unlikely) they are for a referendum.

    So they are essentially for a revoke, but only theoretically.

    I have no problem with this.

    It's the Remainers can't vote Labour nonsense or the obscene and ridiculous Corbyn and Johnson are a bad as each other bollocks that I object to. Primarily because it helps make No Deal much more likely.

    AFZ
  • Yes, Swinson will help Boris, with that line.
  • Yes, Swinson will help Boris, with that line.

    Of course. Lib dems prefer tory governments.
  • Well, it's so much easier to be in opposition all the time, no?
    :grimace:
  • sionisais wrote: »

    Great Britain does not include Northern Ireland? This could solve the hard border problem

    At the risk of indulging a tangent...

    Northern Ireland is not part of Great Britain. Nor has it ever been so. Nor is it likely to ever be.

    Great Britain specifically applies to England, Scotland and Wales, including the Islands that are part of each of those nations. This is different from the British Isles which includes all of Great Britain but also the Island of Ireland, the Ilse of Man and the Channel Islands. I don't think I've forgotten any.

    The nation I live in is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Hence logically it's easy to see NI is not part of Great Britain...

    I've got more of this nonsense but you know...

    AFZ
  • I think this is the definitive explanation...
  • Indeed!

    Thanks @Eutychus, for a most entertaining, and informative, film.
  • Eutychus wrote: »
    I think this is the definitive explanation...

    Definitely.

    I have shared that before on this great vessel... my favourite bit is where God is introduced and then it's explained how He is not keen on micro management...

    Anyway, whilst I do love a good tangent, there is an important point contained here in. Northern Ireland is not part of Great Britain. Some of its residents are sad about this, some deeply relieved. And the differences - legal and cultural - are complicated and important. The Good Friday Agreement was an absolute fudge - but what a beautiful fudge coz it was both fair and stopped the killing. The simplest way to understand the GFA is this:
    1) Territorial sovereignty was retained by the United Kingdom unless and until a majority want to change that.
    2) Residents of NI who want to be British can align themselves economically and culturally with Great Britain
    3) Residents of NI who want to be Irish can align themselves economically and culturally with the Republic of Ireland.

    Of course the devil is very much in the detail but I think it worth noting that unless NI remains within the EU customs union, it is virtually impossible to maintain this beautiful fudge.

    AFZ
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited September 17
    A fudge, indeed, but one that seems to work...

    (I liked the bit about God, and micro-management, too)

  • Labour policy is People's Vote with Remain on the ballot. I understand why people want more but wanting that is not a viable route to stopping Brexit. A Labour-led government is.

    AFZ

    Since when? Last I saw the policy was for its own Brexit. Labour is a Brexit party. Voting Labour will lead peiple to say I voted for Brexit.

    The time for this "vote Labour to stop Brexit" bullshit is over. They do not commit, unequivocally, to do doing so. The Lib Dems are taking the position that Labour should have taken.

    Labour should have been fighting this tooth and nail. They have not. Then they have the complete hypocrisy of complaining about Austerity. Brexit will make things even worse, and they have failed to fight it. They have forfeited the right to complain.
  • Yes, in a curious way Swinson's lurch to revoke seems to leave only Labour with the promise of a referendum. Although, apparently if Lib Dems have a mediocre performance, they are for a referendum.

    If they have anything other than a winning performance (unlikely) they are for a referendum.

    So they are essentially for a revoke, but only theoretically.

    I have no problem with this.

    It's the Remainers can't vote Labour nonsense or the obscene and ridiculous Corbyn and Johnson are a bad as each other bollocks that I object to. Primarily because it helps make No Deal much more likely.

    AFZ

    Not as bad, just as 5 bucket of shit aren't as bad as 7.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Shipmate
    edited September 18

    Labour policy is People's Vote with Remain on the ballot. I understand why people want more but wanting that is not a viable route to stopping Brexit. A Labour-led government is.

    AFZ



    Since when? Last I saw the policy was for its own Brexit. Labour is a Brexit party. Voting Labour will lead peiple to say I voted for Brexit.

    The time for this "vote Labour to stop Brexit" bullshit is over. They do not commit, unequivocally, to do doing so. The Lib Dems are taking the position that Labour should have taken.

    Labour should have been fighting this tooth and nail. They have not. Then they have the complete hypocrisy of complaining about Austerity. Brexit will make things even worse, and they have failed to fight it. They have forfeited the right to complain.

    You seem to be saying that appearance is more important to you than actually creating a situation in which Brexit can be stopped.

    Unless you believe the Lib Dems are capable of winning an overall majority on that platform - then your choice is a government that offers a second referendum or one that does not.

    (The reality of a second referendum is likely to be that members of all parties campaign on both sides of the question.)
  • Of course, there could be exceptional circumstances, but leaving those aside, the Labour conference will be strongly remain.

    And will be followed by the Leadership?

    Labour policy is People's Vote with Remain on the ballot. I understand why people want more but wanting that is not a viable route to stopping Brexit. A Labour-led government is.

    AFZ



    Since when? Last I saw the policy was for its own Brexit. Labour is a Brexit party. Voting Labour will lead peiple to say I voted for Brexit.

    The time for this "vote Labour to stop Brexit" bullshit is over. They do not commit, unequivocally, to do doing so. The Lib Dems are taking the position that Labour should have taken.

    Labour should have been fighting this tooth and nail. They have not. Then they have the complete hypocrisy of complaining about Austerity. Brexit will make things even worse, and they have failed to fight it. They have forfeited the right to complain.

    You seem to be saying that appearance is more important to you than actually creating a situation in which Brexit can be stopped.

    Unless you believe the Lib Dems are capable of winning an overall majority on that platform - then your choice is a government that offers a second referendum or one that does not.

    So you can't deny that Labour's policy is for its own Brexit. Tory-lite, in other words.

    After the last General Election, I am being told that I support Brexit because I voted Labour.

    The Labour apologists seem to want me to forget that. I don't.

    Your case is "vote for us, we're not quite as awful as the others". It's not appealing. It's not where Labour should be.
  • And this is why the Tories will win. They control the narrative and have a charismatic leader committed to a clear direction, however delusional that may be in reality.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    Your case is "vote for us, we're not quite as awful as the others". It's not appealing. It's not where Labour should be.

    I agree.

    In a straight contest between Tory and Labour then Labour are streets ahead on Brexit and everything else.

    But my hope is that the Greens and the Lib Dems are about to have a huge surge - and, in that event, could work together. 🤔
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    edited September 18
    There were some cracking Brexit jokes on The Mash Report's latest episode, including a guy reviewing the whole thing as a long-running Netflix series and refusing to admit that it might actually be real events on the basis that the irony is just too neat.
  • Boogie wrote: »
    Your case is "vote for us, we're not quite as awful as the others". It's not appealing. It's not where Labour should be.

    I agree.

    In a straight contest between Tory and Labour then Labour are streets ahead on Brexit and everything else.

    But my hope is that the Greens and the Lib Dems are about to have a huge surge - and, in that event, could work together. 🤔

    So in the seat where I live, which is a Tory marginal, with Labour second, you are saying I should vote Lib Dem? It's an open door for Boris.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    I didn’t say that.
  • Presumably, Ms Swinson would recommend that I do vote Lib Dem.
  • Eutychus wrote: »
    And this is why the Tories will win. They control the narrative and have a charismatic leader committed to a clear direction, however delusional that may be in reality.

    Clear direction? I was just reading about his meeting with Juncker and others, where he seemed puzzled that an SPS system for Ireland, does not preserve the requirements of the single market. But maybe this is a bluff, and he is going through the motions in order to wind the clock down.

    (SPS = sanitary and phytosanitary measures).
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    Labour policy is a general election followed by a referendum with remaining as an option. They have been clear about this.
  • Boogie wrote: »
    Your case is "vote for us, we're not quite as awful as the others". It's not appealing. It's not where Labour should be.

    I agree.

    In a straight contest between Tory and Labour then Labour are streets ahead on Brexit and everything else.

    But my hope is that the Greens and the Lib Dems are about to have a huge surge - and, in that event, could work together. 🤔

    So in the seat where I live, which is a Tory marginal, with Labour second, you are saying I should vote Lib Dem? It's an open door for Boris.
    That'll depend on several factors. How much of the neo-fascist vote splits between Tory and Brexit "Party"? How many one-nation Tories hold their nose and vote blue anyway? How many stay at home? Do any of them vote LibDem instead? How many Labour voters don't like Corbyn and be wanting to vote differently? How many people who would want to vote LibDem but try and be tactical instead? If they all just voted for the best fit to their opinions, how many votes would that be? Enough to keep the Tories out? Enough to actually return a LibDem?

    My recommendation has always been: consider your views on the issues you're most concerned with, have a good look at what the candidates standing in your constituency say on those issues, and what the parties they represent say, decide who's going to best represent your views* and vote accordingly. The only wasted vote is one not cast, possibly followed by the "that's how I've always voted" without any thought.

    * I'd add that the consideration of "best represent your views" could legitimately consider chances of being elected - if not elected then they can't be your MP representing you, though they may continue to work in capacities other than MP for the constituency.
  • Hugal wrote: »
    Labour policy is a general election followed by a referendum with remaining as an option. They have been clear about this.
    What they haven't been clear on is what the other half of the question will be. A public vote with the same question as 2016 isn't helpful at this stage. It needs to be a proper referendum where the leave option is a defined policy which the government is fully committed to seek in negotiations with the EU.
  • Alan, on voting, in a 3 way marginal, one might have the luxury of pausing between Labour and Lib Dem. However, the last election here showed figures of Tory, 20 000, Labour 19 000, Lib Dem 5 000. I think voting LD in this situation is barmy.
  • Clear direction?

    By "clear" I meant "get us out by October 31", "end austerity", "build a great future".
  • Sotto voce, help the rich.

  • Labour policy is People's Vote with Remain on the ballot. I understand why people want more but wanting that is not a viable route to stopping Brexit. A Labour-led government is.

    AFZ

    Since when? Last I saw the policy was for its own Brexit. Labour is a Brexit party. Voting Labour will lead peiple to say I voted for Brexit.

    This is just not true.

    Labour's policy - for about 2 months now - is a People's Vote between a form a Brexit* and Remain. It's as simple as that.

    I am not arguing that Labour should not have been more anti-Brexit over the past two years.**

    But IT IS IRRELEVANT. Do you want to stop Brexit or not?

    Vote Labour (in Lab/Con) marginals, get a People's Vote. Vote anything else in those seats*** get Boris's Brexit. It is as simple as that. It is simply untrue to say otherwise.

    It is a time of crisis. A Labour-led government will call a referendum; that is the only possible route to stopping Brexit. Everything else is noise. Noise helps Boris.

    AFZ

    *probably a form of EEA membership
    **I am 100% anti-Brexit and frustrated by Labour's position these past 3 years but actually it's a lot more complex than many people claim: consider this; one way or another people who voted to Leave need to be persuaded to change their minds. Anyway, that's for another time. It is a time of crisis. A Labour-led government will call a referendum; that is the only possible route to stopping Brexit.
    ***You wanna argue for electoral reform? Fine. I've believed in electoral reform for 2-3 decades now but it is irrelevant at this moment. It is a time of crisis. A Labour-led government will call a referendum; that is the only possible route to stopping Brexit.
  • This morning comes news that Corbyn's Brexit policy, if elected, is to negotiate a cose customs union and membership of the Single Market with the EU, then put it to a referendum with Remain as the other option, and remain neutral (not campaigning) himself. Really strong leadership, then.
  • I was checking out Caroline Lucas's position on revoke, as Plaid seem to be supporting it. To my relief, Ms Lucas seems to be saying it is dangerous, as it nullifies leave voters completely. This seems obvious, the solution to intense conflict over Brexit is to ignore leave? Not sure about a female cabinet, though.
  • Eirenist wrote: »
    This morning comes news that Corbyn's Brexit policy, if elected, is to negotiate a cose customs union and membership of the Single Market with the EU, then put it to a referendum with Remain as the other option, and remain neutral (not campaigning) himself. Really strong leadership, then.

    I think Corbyn will get hit for this but I wonder if it's a stroke of genius.

    In practical terms, according to most Remainers, Corbyn didn't campaign well enough for Remain last time so the effect on a referendum presumably is unimportant? But more importantly, as well as avoiding Brexit, we have a nation to heal - his credibility to carry out whatever result is strengthened here which will be vital going into what will be a very nasty campaign.

    Moreover, Labour's got an election to win first and there is no reason for Remainers not to vote Labour and Labour Leavers will be less likely to vote Brexit Party.

    Finally it gives him credibility with the EU - he is not trying to secure a deal he will campaign against.

    There is no good reason to criticize Corbyn on this point, only bad ones.

    I am not a Corbyn fan but once again I ONLY CARE RIGHT NOW ABOUT WHAT WILL WORK.

    This is a moment of national crisis.

    AFZ
  • Eirenist wrote: »
    This morning comes news that Corbyn's Brexit policy, if elected, is to negotiate a cose customs union and membership of the Single Market with the EU, then put it to a referendum with Remain as the other option, and remain neutral (not campaigning) himself. Really strong leadership, then.

    I think he has been impressed with Wilson's tactic in the 1975 referendum, of allowing ministers to speak on each side. I think it is OK, would it stop someone voting Labour? It is the only route to stop Brexit, discounting Swinson's fantasies.
  • What will work is strong leadership. There's only one person displaying that right now.
  • Eutychus wrote: »
    What will work is strong leadership. There's only one person displaying that right now.

    Well, I agree that Dr Lucas is showing strong leadership, however, her party is rather small.
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