Brexit thread III

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  • sionisaissionisais Shipmate
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    Presumably the demise of British Steel will have no impact on Brexiteers?

    It may do, but Labour has lost a lot of support in Wales. Some admittedly due to media misrepresentation but in no small measure due to its own carelessness aand arrogance. There are still people who have climbed the greasy pole of Welsh Labour, who believe they have some divine entitlement to working-class votes.
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    Rumours that the Tories are planning to wield the axe on May today. Surely, they'll wait for the triumphant election results?
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, Epiphanies Host
    It was like that in the NE in my childhood. Produced an unhealthy complacency, a sense of entitlement.

    But I never thought I'd live to see a Farage-inspired comeuppance. Maybe there has always been a solid mass of Labour supporters who never really got internationalism? Whatever, there doesn't seem to be much awareness of internationalism today.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    On both left and right Barnabas62.
  • Has anyone else seen the Hope Not Hate posters today? This one captioned "There is one way to stop this man" - over a picture of Nigel Farage's face covered with "Voting"
  • North East QuineNorth East Quine Shipmate
    edited May 22
    Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
    There are still people who have climbed the greasy pole of Welsh Labour, who believe they have some divine entitlement to working-class votes.

    Labour complacency caused the collapse of Scottish labour, and helped the rise of the SNP.
    For too many years Scottish Labour didn't have to do anything positive, they just had to be "not the Tories." Then people realised that the SNP were also "not the Tories" and the vote swung to them.

    Interestingly, Ruth Davidson also seems to be competing for the "Not the Tories" vote, though she's fine tuning it to "Not the Westminster Tories."
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    Now the Conservatives are doing their utmost to confirm their incumbent leader's characterisation of them as 'the nasty party'. I am no supporter of hers, but the conduct of most of them towards her has been despicable throughout.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    The whole thing has been a mess. Both her and the party are as bad as each other.
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    She made a bad call at the outset, in deciding to jump before working out where she wanted to land. I think this was the fault of her (then) advisers.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    Eirenist wrote: »
    She made a bad call at the outset, in deciding to jump before working out where she wanted to land. I think this was the fault of her (then) advisers.

    I think you can only go so far in excusing her conduct at both the HO and as PM, before you have to come to the conclusion that she's either a naïve empty vessel, or a truly nasty piece of work (and remember she was happy to throw red meat to the worst elements in her party with her imagined story about an asylum seekers cat).
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    FRankly, I doubt if she has enough imagination to make up that story by herself.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    Eirenist wrote: »
    FRankly, I doubt if she has enough imagination to make up that story by herself.

    She has enough intelligence to know it wasn't true.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Eirenist wrote: »
    FRankly, I doubt if she has enough imagination to make up that story by herself.

    She has enough intelligence to know it wasn't true.

    It had been thoroughly debunked before she used it. Using it anyway shows either incompetence or mendacity. Both would have led to her leaving the cabinet had Cameron's government not treated the ministerial code as a joke. But then it was great politics in the Tory party that has spent 150 years putting party before country.

    Her conduct in both offices of state has been consistently appalling.

    AFZ
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
    There are still people who have climbed the greasy pole of Welsh Labour, who believe they have some divine entitlement to working-class votes.

    Labour complacency caused the collapse of Scottish labour, and helped the rise of the SNP.
    For too many years Scottish Labour didn't have to do anything positive, they just had to be "not the Tories." Then people realised that the SNP were also "not the Tories" and the vote swung to them.

    Interestingly, Ruth Davidson also seems to be competing for the "Not the Tories" vote, though she's fine tuning it to "Not the Westminster Tories."

    Indeed. All my Welsh lefty acquaintances are firmly for Plaid Cymru and view Welsh Labour as a Blairite dinosaur.

  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    All that said, I find the gloating tone of some of the media coverage and comment decidedly unpleasant. Brexit, whatever view one takes, is definitely not a joke.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    Eirenist wrote: »
    All that said, I find the gloating tone of some of the media coverage and comment decidedly unpleasant. Brexit, whatever view one takes, is definitely not a joke.

    True, it’s already messing up many lives - heaven knows how many more. :cry:

  • The remain parties did absolutely nothing to boost their campaigns - no leaflets, no posters, nothing locally. When I went looking at the local Green and LibDem sites, they were trying to crowdfund enough to buy the leaflets to send out. So one of the issues is that UKIP and the Brexit party are funded easily, with very little accounting or checking (lots of stories about this for the Brexit party), whereas the honest parties are struggling.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    edited May 24
    The remain parties did absolutely nothing to boost their campaigns - no leaflets, no posters, nothing locally.

    I received leaflets through the door from the Conservatives, Labour, Greens and Lib Dems, and a addressed flyer from the Brexit Party.

    The election spending limits are actually quite low in this election, though as you allude this only helps insofar as all parties are willing to follow these regulations.

    I also wonder whether the smaller parties focused their efforts on the regions in which they already had sitting MEPs.
  • CathscatsCathscats Shipmate
    I had leaflets from SNP, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem. No Brexit Party. Maybe they think (rightly, we are strongly pro Scottish independence through either SNP or Green) it is a lost cause in my area. My daughter, a first time Euro voter had a personal letter from the SNP (hand delivered, no doubt to spare expense).
  • There are sitting Labour, Conservative and UKIP MEPs currently in this region. The LibDems and Greens were polling enough to achieve seats according to all the polls, Labour and Conservative were not. I only saw election materials from UKIP and saw someone from the Conservative party drumming up support on the High Street on the day, so actually some distance from the polling station:
    Are you going to vote today?
    Yes, already have.
    Did you vote for us?
    (Keep walking briskly past with my daughter - who shouted over her shoulder, "No chance in Hell")]
    They'd gone when we walked back a few minutes later.
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    Brexit is like a curse upon our generation, and untold generations to come. I don't know if there is a solution.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    There is a solution. It is a very difficult needle to thread.

    Here's my thinking:

    1) Given the current composition of Parliament, whoever wins the Conservative leadership is unlikely to command a majority in the commons for very long.
    a) This is because if they push for no-deal, there will be a revolt within the Tory party
    b) If they try to make some deal work, they're unlikely to be able to carry the DUP as the DUP will not support the backstop and the EU will not agree to a deal without it. (The same applies to the ERG idiots).
    2) Therefore a general election this year becomes very likely
    3) A further referendum is possible and indeed likely if Labour has it in their election manifesto
    4) The labour manifesto process means that to a large extent, the membership get to shape the manifesto rather than it being just written by the leadership
    5) There is a lot of activism within the party to make the Labour position pro-referendum
    6) I was disappointed at how the leadership were able to block this change of position so easily prior to the EU parliament elections. I do not think it would go down the same way for a Westminster election but this is a sticking point. Corbyn needs to realise that all the things he stands for - and commands a lot of support for - will be much easier to achieve in a UK that remains part of the EU.
    7) A pro-referendum Labour party has to win the GE (or at least be the largest party)
    8) The EU has to give the UK a further extension to sort out this mess.


    As I said, it's a difficult needle to thread but it's not impossible. I have in the past been unimpressed by people who have blamed Corbyn for the Brexit mess. In many ways, as leader of the opposition, he has not had the power to effect change. That is changing; because of above, there is a shift in the balance of power. Now is the moment.

    Commeth the hour....????

    AFZ

  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    What I don’t like is that the RI elections are seen as a kind of referendum on the EU. I voted for the party I believe will represent my area best in Brussels, no matter how long we are in the EU. Putting in a Brexit politician achieves nothing except giving that politician a nice wage.
  • sionisaissionisais Shipmate

    As I said, it's a difficult needle to thread but it's not impossible. I have in the past been unimpressed by people who have blamed Corbyn for the Brexit mess. In many ways, as leader of the opposition, he has not had the power to effect change. That is changing; because of above, there is a shift in the balance of power. Now is the moment.

    Commeth the hour....????

    AFZ

    I don't blame Jeremy Corbyn for the Brexit mess. That is shared amongst David Cameron, the complacent Remain campaign and the willingness of the popular papers to publish blatant lies.

    Nevertheless he could have provided far better leadership, and at the risk of being accused of being undemocratic, decided that the 48% needed a voice in Parliament. It would have needed selling to Labour voters, but Labour was, I believe, starting from a low point as many Labour voters had voted to Leave. He could have become the workable alternative to the LibDems, , the Greens, possibly Plaid Cymru and maybe a few Tories desparing of that party acting in the national interest (here he goes again .....).

    He, and Labour, could still do that, and as you say, a general election gives Labour a legitimate opportunity to nail the Remain colours to the mast.
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    You would think that an election would be needed, but I suppose the last one made the Tories cautious. Depends on the polls, I suppose, but they led May astray. I crave a non-Tory govt.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    You would think that an election would be needed, but I suppose the last one made the Tories cautious. Depends on the polls, I suppose, but they led May astray. I crave a non-Tory govt.

    Given the indications are that they will lose seats - one way or the other - there seems to be little appetite amongst Tories to run another election campaign.
  • quetzalcoatlquetzalcoatl Shipmate
    Also, they probably underestimated Corbyn once, I doubt if they'll do it again, even if there is a Boris bounce.
  • The remain parties did absolutely nothing to boost their campaigns - no leaflets, no posters, nothing locally.
    Here, I got the mail shot from all the parties standing. But, nothing delivered by hand. Although I personally posted something like 500 leaflets through doors and chatted to a few people who were out and about as we went round the town. But, we only had about a dozen people to deliver leaflets and so only managed about 15% of the town, concentrating on the ward that voted most strongly for us in the 2017 local elections - which is also where we'll be trying hardest to get a councillor in 2022.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Shipmate
    FYI Lib Dem’s have taken this opportunity to start their own leadership contest.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    FYI Lib Dem’s have taken this opportunity to start their own leadership contest.

    In fairness, that was always on the cards as Cable had stated he was an interim leader only afaicr.
  • FYI Lib Dem’s have taken this opportunity to start their own leadership contest.

    In fairness, that was always on the cards as Cable had stated he was an interim leader only afaicr.

    The timing makes a lot of sense. A leadership contest for any party while there are very important issues facing the country is a distraction that should be avoided. As the Tories are now well into their own little fight there'll be precious little attempt to deal with the issues facing the country anyway, because the Tory Party is far more important than the nation. I was expecting a LibDem leadership contest over the summer recess, a new leader in place before the autumn conference.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Shipmate
    Yeah, ‘tis entirely rational
  • jay_emmjay_emm Shipmate
    Results now in seem to suggest that britain is, like france, divided into three (four) parts.
    One third nowbrexit, one third remain, one third deal ish or exitbr. Not sure what other countrys got. (our region gained a lib and brexit and lost two tories)
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited May 27
    The EU election results actually suggest to me that a second referendum is quite likely to reverse the result of the first. But they also seem likely to push the Tory Party towards hard Brexit and the Labour Party away from a second referendum. The political calculus is that neither can afford to alienate their Brexit supporters.

    And that's weird.
  • ThunderBunkThunderBunk Shipmate
    It's disastrous. If this is the case then we are back at the referendum and the then 48% still has no representation in spite of probably now being the majority. How the **** does that work?
  • DafydDafyd Shipmate
    The Tories have lost seats; Labour have lost seats. But the big loser on the night is UKIP.
  • On a 38% turnout, when the Brexit Party polled 33% and the LibDems polled 21%, the Green Party polled 12% and Change UK polled 4% - i.e. 33% for Brexit, 37% for Remain, then the result is not clearly voting for a no deal leave.

    The UKIP vote almost totally transferred to the Brexit Party, which also picked up some other votes Both Labour and the Conservaties haemorrhaged votes, Labour coming 3rd with 15% and the Conservatives polling 9%, coming 5th, their lowest poll since 1830 odd. Change UK did not gain any seats, just muddying the results.

    The Brexit Party didn't do as well as some of the polls predicted - I looked up the East of England Region predicted results before the vote
    the East of England region, which started with 3 Conservative, 1 Labour and 3 UKIP MEPs and is predicted to have elected 3 Brexit Party, 1 Labour, 1 Lib Dem with the 6th and 7th MEPs in doubt, possibly a fourth Brexit Party, possibly a Green, possibly a Conservative

    Results: 3 Brexit Party, 2 LibDem, 1 Green and 1 Conservative, in order of election. That pattern repeated itself across the country.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Shipmate
    edited May 27
    About 14% of the electorate voted anti-Brexit, 12% voted Brexit. It’s polarised but very close.

    No one seems very keen on compromise. Farage’s shower got the most seats, because the remain vote was splintered all over the place.
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    The EU election results actually suggest to me that a second referendum is quite likely to reverse the result of the first. But they also seem likely to push the Tory Party towards hard Brexit and the Labour Party away from a second referendum. The political calculus is that neither can afford to alienate their Brexit supporters.

    And that's weird.

    I agree with your first paragraph - if a second referendum were on offer. The impression I have is that the DUP may have some trouble in the next UK elections. Any comments?
  • The results aren't in from Northern Ireland yet.
  • Also the remain parties didn't campaign - maybe in Cambridge, but nowhere else I saw. The Brexit Party ran an amazing countrywide campaign compared to the other parties. Although I suspect in the aftermath it may well become apparent that the Brexit Party spent over the allowed funding and the source of that funding is dubious (that's already under investigation).
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    edited May 27
    The Brexit Party ran an amazing countrywide campaign compared to the other parties. Although I suspect in the aftermath it may well become apparent that the Brexit Party spent over the allowed funding and the source of that funding is dubious (that's already under investigation).

    In the long term they’ll implode, like UKip did. In the short term they’ll mess with this country and people’s fears, like UKip did. They’ll affect the tory party leadership contest and it won’t be in a good way.

    I’m off back into ostrich mode - no more watching news bulletins for me. 🙄😢

  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    Gee D wrote: »
    Barnabas62 wrote: »
    The EU election results actually suggest to me that a second referendum is quite likely to reverse the result of the first. But they also seem likely to push the Tory Party towards hard Brexit and the Labour Party away from a second referendum. The political calculus is that neither can afford to alienate their Brexit supporters.

    And that's weird.

    I agree with your first paragraph - if a second referendum were on offer. The impression I have is that the DUP may have some trouble in the next UK elections. Any comments?

    There is very little doubt I think that the Tories will go wholesale UKIP/BrexitParty at this point.

    What Labour does is an open question. This is Jeremy Corbyn's statement this morning which I think warrants reproducing in full
    Corbyn:

    After three years of Tory failure to deliver a Brexit that works for the whole country, these elections became a proxy second referendum.

    With the Conservatives disintegrating and unable to govern, and parliament deadlocked, this issue will have to go back to the people, whether through a general election or a public vote. Labour will bring our divided country together so we can end austerity and tackle inequality.

    Over the coming days we will have conversations across our party and movement, and reflect on these results on both sides of the Brexit divide.

    We will not let the continuing chaos in the Conservative Party push our country into a No Deal exit from the EU. Parliament can and will prevent such a damaging outcome for jobs and industry in the UK.


    AFZ
  • I was slightly diverted from my dismay at Farage's 'success' by noting that my region - South East - now has two MEPs named Alexandra Phillips (as someone said, she's so good, they elected her twice).
    :confused:
  • Penny SPenny S Shipmate
    I tried to avoid overnight disturbance, but got told about it in the small hours when all I had wanted to do was visit the loo. Sleep was slow returning.
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate
    edited May 27
    The results aren't in from Northern Ireland yet.

    The opinion polls available here showed a real move towards remaining.
  • Scotland has confirmed that it is pro-Remain - with just the Western Isles to declare (they regard counting votes as Sabbath-breaking, so started counting this morning) it's 37.9% SNP, 13.9% LibDem, 8.3% Green and 1.9% Change, matching the 62% in favour of Remain in 2016.

    Interestingly, the second person on the SNP list, Christian Allard, is a French citizen. He came to Scotland 30 years ago to work for a company which exported Scottish seafood to France and has lived here ever since. He's been an MSP, and was sworn into Holyrood in both English and French.
  • The problem is that the polls predicting results have not been that accurate, underestimating the remain vote (Green, LibDem) or how big the reduction in Conservative and Labour voting would be. So the predictions are still a guess until the results for NI come in, which is not yet.

    Results from the Guardian
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    Single-issue politics has become the curse of our country.
  • Farage’s shower got the most seats, because the remain vote was splintered all over the place.
    The split of the Remain vote was entirely appropriate. Whereas the Brexit "Party" had a non-manifesto for the UK leaving the EU asap, the remain parties had manifestoes of "stop Brexit +", where the '+' indicates what they would favour as policies that they would work for if elected. On that the LibDems, Greens, ChangeUK and SNP/PC have different priorities, and those who were looking beyond a pseudo-referendum would take that into account when casting their vote.
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