Penny slopes out of her hut having done some tidying with slightly damp eyes.
It saddens me but doesn't surprise me that Andy has been shuffled off the island. The Mafia aren't likely to go for Lambie as the chance of a wasted kill when the detective is protected by the doctor is far too high, so realistically they're going to have a crack at the rest of us.
I'm not sure if not talking makes someone innocent or guilty: it's entirely possible they don't want to give themselves away or they may feel they don't have a lot to contribute. Karen had made herself a target with her character's attitude.
I want to hear from everyone and especially Ethan, and also Dai on what's happened please.
Nah, Maz, you've heard from me already. The plan's working. The bad guys can't stop Lambie clearing one more person. That will make three confirmed innocents. If the doctor declares, that makes four (and, no, the doctor shouldn't declare yet, obviously). One more - another investigation, or better still the Masons if we got them - and we win. And since Steve is very likely innocent, because the bad guys seem a lot more on their toes than he is, we might not even need that one more.
Catching the bad guys sooner is a bonus, but one well worth playing for. And for that you don't really need to hear from me. You need to hear from the people we don't know about.
But since you ask, I'm suspicious of you, Mazza. You've not committed yourself to any real position yet. You've asked questions to undermine confidence in any really solid ideas, but not tried to give us any ideas we can work with.
OK, due allowance for the fact that, like the rest of us, you just got caught in a shit shower with no brolly, but whereas some of us are looking for shelter, you're stood in the open, looking up to heaven, mouth gaping, and bawling "how can we stop this shower of shit?" Keep doing that and it starts looking like you like it that way.
I'm not sure of Dai, either. He's not really done anything to justify suspicion, but he won't, 'cos he's really fucking smart. He's never going to give himself away with any big mistake. But he knows I suspect you, and if his last comment was meant as a steer towards Lambie's suspicions rather than mine, AND (which, I admit, is at this stage a big assumption) you ain't kosher, then that might have been a little mistake, which is as much as he'll ever get if he is guilty.
The trouble is, the reason I mention you and Dai, is that you two are the only two to really say enough for me to think about, and find possible mistakes in. So what I need, is what you need (if you're a good guy, that is) - other people to tell us what they are thinking.
But since you ask, I'm suspicious of you, Mazza. You've not committed yourself to any real position yet. You've asked questions to undermine confidence in any really solid ideas, but not tried to give us any ideas we can work with.
I agree that looks like he's acting guilty, and I think anyone who was actually guilty would be too self-conscious to act that guilty.
Most people when they're the mafia are worried that anything they say might give them away, and therefore say as little as possible.
So on the whole I'd guess Mario is innocent. (Though I'm entirely fallible.)
I'm not sure of Dai, either. He's not really done anything to justify suspicion, but he won't, 'cos he's really fucking smart.
Lambie decides to take another crack at her writing. She carefully chooses a spot on the beach where she has a clear view for many yards around and pulls out a pencil stub and a dry leaf. "Who knows?" she thinks. "Terrible things are happening here, and somehow it isn't as--inspiring--as I thought it would be." She glances nervously over her shoulder again, only to see someone approaching...
I agree that looks like he's acting guilty, and I think anyone who was actually guilty would be too self-conscious to act that guilty.
Most people when they're the mafia are worried that anything they say might give them away, and therefore say as little as possible.
So on the whole I'd guess Mario is innocent. (Though I'm entirely fallible.)
If "as little as possible" means "as little as possible while remaining inconspicuous", then yeah, I agree, except that anyone known to be a motormouth can't really play that game.
So far, there's you (Dai), me (Ethan), Lambie and Mario, how can really be said to have engaged. And of those, Mario is conspicuous for the lack of any real substance to his contributions.
Penny's been active (nominating, voting, and giving some reasons) without being very verbose.
The rest? Naomi, nem, Fifi and Steve have contributed pretty much no ideas at all, and Steve has been catatonic for most of the time.
Of all of those, Penny's hit the sweet-spot of being almost perfectly inconspicuous, which would be really great play for an assassin, but that doesn't mean she's guilty. There most necessarily be innocents who've engage more, and less, than she has, so it's entirely plausible that she could be innocent and engage at that level.
What we really need is for the innocently inactive to get far more vocal, so that the guilty have to raise their game and contribute if they want to keep looking inconspicuous - because that makes it more likely they'll make mistakes and we'll spot them.
For today, I take your point about how Mazza wouldn't look this suspicious if he was actually guilty, but I can't see why he'd look this suspicious if he was innocent either.
I don't want this just to be about me and my suspicions, though. Because unless I hear from other people about their suspicions, I don't have the evidence to form my own suspicions with any level of certainty. So I'll hold off for now.
But we can't afford to waste an opportunity, so I will be nominating Mario in the absence of an equally plausible nomination from someone else.
For today, I take your point about how Mazza wouldn't look this suspicious if he was actually guilty, but I can't see why he'd look this suspicious if he was innocent either.
Because it is entirely natural for people to feel more doubt about the present strategy than they have confidence in any strategy that they might come up with themselves. At the risk of being patronising, lack of confidence isn't something you personally display to a great extent, and you tend not to allow for it in others.
If Lambie doesn't nominate anyone I'll vote for your nomination, but I think you're basing it on a misinterpretation of the data here. Whereas if Lambie takes a random guess at one of the quiet people in the worst case she's got a fifty-fifty chance of hitting a mafia.
If Lambie doesn't nominate anyone I'll vote for your nomination, but I think you're basing it on a misinterpretation of the data here. Whereas if Lambie takes a random guess at one of the quiet people in the worst case she's got a fifty-fifty chance of hitting a mafia.
Nah, 'cos the worst case is that the bad guys are you, Maz and Penny, and then fishing in the quiet pool will be pointless.
I'm not saying that the bad guys are you, Maz and Penny, but we're both thinking that Steve probably isn't, and I'd be a bit surprised if all of the bad guys were giving it the low profile, and all of Naomi, Nem and Fifi were guilty, so at least one of you three probably is.
And I'll admit that you and Penny being guilty scares me, because if either of you are, you'll be damned hard to catch out. Neither of you look as good a guess as Mario at this point.
I really want to hear what Naomi, Nem, Fifi, Steve and (a little less urgently) Penny are thinking now.
There are almost certainly innocents with undeclared roles still, remember. We may not have all of the possible roles, but people aren't going to shout until they have to.
I get the impression that Dai and Ethan are not entirely on the same side, but the question is who to believe, without getting sucked in by who is the most charming.
Dai seemed to make sense re trusting Lambie to make good choices, because she's the one who can actually tell us something. However, the discussion about Wet Kipper led to him being killed. So Lambie can't afford to tell us what her next move is. Thus Dai telling us to trust Lambie is possibly a strategy of a mobster.
Nominating Mario is a bad move, not just because it's me and I'm innocent, but because if you kill Mario and then the Mafia lynches another innocent, aren't we sunk? I really don't want to lose the game. Being suggested to be nominated by Eliab plays right into the Mafia's hands. I was starting to be suspicious of Dai, and I thought we'd be better going after one of the quiet ones, but right now Dai is who I'd choose to go. Presuming that it is true that Ethan is cleared.
(I got lynched as an innocent the first time I played the game too, it appears that talking merely brings suspicion.)
Nah, 'cos the worst case is that the bad guys are you, Maz and Penny, and then fishing in the quiet pool will be pointless.
Well, I know that's not the case, though I appreciate that you don't know that.
I was including Penny in the quiet pool; I haven't noticed her make any substantial contribution to strategy.
I get the impression that Dai and Ethan are not entirely on the same side, but the question is who to believe, without getting sucked in by who is the most charming.
Yes we are on the same side, unless something really weird is going on. I just think Ethan is basing his strategy on a faulty interpretation of the evidence.
I estimate the odds of Mario being guilty at about 3/7 if there are three mafia, and 1/4 if there are two, which given that there are only six suspects and I know one of them is innocent (me) makes him the second least likely suspect.
(The numbers assume that a mafia member will be half as likely to be talkative, which figure is plucked out of the air somewhat.)
I've been stupid enough to stick my head about the parapet, and like a dandelion in the lawn of life, may get mowed down for my trouble. Thinking though the responses of the active players, I think we need to take our chances on one of the silent players. Because they are quiet, it's very difficult to know which one. Penny Drago's recent comment about Ethan and Dai make me begin to suspect her. I looked back the previous page and see some other comments that also bring her into consideration.
(FWIW der Lambie, I thought that playing a game like this, that being active was why and how to play. Though I don't know I am wise to deceptive tactics, even if Mario spent a chunk of time in prison.)
Dearest Mario, that is indeed the point-- though I shamefacedly confess that i am drawing conclusions based on my own wicked inclinations to be as lazy as hell when I imagine my absence will affect no one. Which incidentally corroborates my claim to be detective--the temptation to swan off and write "A Scream of Delight" might otherwise have overcome me long ago.
I think that it is unlikely that all the bad guys are keeping quiet, so one of Mario, Penny and Dai is probably guilty.
Mario and Penny might make decent targets for investigation. Dai, won’t, because while he might be lying about being unreadable, if he’s telling the truth we can’t clear him. If he’s innocent, he is also useful.
Steve is so quiet and unengaged he’s probably innocent.
If there’s anyone with any reason to think anything good or bad about Naomi, Nem or Fifi, let’s hear it. I’m not convinced that any of them are guilty. I’d vote for them if that were the consensus, but I wouldn’t much like it.
I’ll nominate, probably Mario, but I’m open to changing my mind, in the next few hours because we need someone to vote about. Don’t let that stop the rest of you sticking your oars in, though.
Lambie, I appreciate your reasons for keeping quiet about whom you plan to investigate, but nominating someone to vote off isn't letting the mafia on to anything they wouldn't know.
If Mario is the only nominee by a known innocent, I'll vote for him (if Ethan doesn't change his mind and there are three mafia and Mario is not one of them, we can't lynch a mafia member so we'd better just hope Mario is one of them), but I think the odds are against.
If we want to win, following Eliab is wrong.
We need someone else to be nominated. I'd rather be investigated so I can at least play on,
Probably anything I say at this point will be interpreted as mafia. If I think beyond myself, is it bad game play to vote for myself, so that other innocents don't get targetted? If Dai is right, that may be the only way my team can win, even if my character is deadibyes as a consequence.
I;ll be your Jesus, doing the death so that ye all may live.
If you off yourself as an innocent then that's not helping the other innocent players as it reduces the pool even further, especially as we're just nominating now. I've once known a Mafia member give themselves the coup de grace in a pile-on to disguise who their co-conspirators are, but that was in a faster moving game.
Mario is innocent and we do lynch him. We're then reliant on the doctor to guess the mafia's target. That's not a situation I'd like to be in.
Mario is guilty and we do lynch him. The mafia target another innocent (call them W).
Then we're at:
Goodies: Ethan, Lambie, me, X.
Baddies: Y, Z.
Lambie will 50/50 have investigated either Y or Z. So we're then in a winning situation if the doctor is still alive, and a 50/50 situation if the doctor isn't. If she investigated X or W, there's a good chance of getting the nomination wrong (if Ethan keeps thinking the way he's thinking he will probably nominate me for want of a better target), and then we're not in a good situation as above.
Mario is innocent, and we don't lynch him. I think the mafia can't avoid showing their hand at this point, unless we're very unlucky. We probably win.
Mario is guilty and we don't lynch him. Lambie investigates Mario, finds him guilty, and we all lynch him. In the meantime, the mafia will have targeted one of the two remaining innocents who aren't me, Ethan, or Lambie. Ethan probably nominates me for lynching next, which is a mistake. At that point we are at:
Goodies: Ethan, Lambie, X.
Baddies: Y, Z.
That's a losing situation.
I think Mario is just about more likely to be innocent than not. So I will be voting No Lynching.
I have gone back and checked the player list as your maths doesn't seem to add up Dai
Andy Kipper (Wet Kipper)Killed by Mafia
Mr Steve Huang (SirPalomides) somewhat AWOL
Dai Onstage (Dafyd) claims unreadability
Nem the cat (not entirely me)
Mario Huana Hirnlos (Noprophet_NOprofit)
Dame Fifi McNulty (Firenze) Patrick Royce (Sipech)Killed by Mafia
Lambie LaCosta (Lamb Chopped) uncontested detective
Ethan Eliab (Eliab) detective declared innocent
Penny Drago (Pendragon)
Naomi Spinner, Apostle™ (Net Spinster) Karen White (Gwai)Lynched
Currently there are 9 people still alive and present on this island. Unless Lambie has been leading us up the garden path (and if the doctor's been following Ethan's instructions advice, they would I think be justifiably peeved about that) we only have 2 absolutely guaranteed innocents given we can't trust anyone right now as the only person each of us knows alignment for sure is ourselves and the Mafia aren't going to stand up and shout 'It's Meee'. So Lambie would have a much larger pool than 2 to pick from whether Mario is still here or not, and if the doctor's going to gamble that the Mafia won't attack Lambie for the risk of a wasted kill, they've also got a 'eenie meenie minie mo' situation to pick the target for tonight from everyone else.
I don't see what is wrong with my maths.
Lambie won't investigate me if she believes I'm telling the truth about being unreadable; she won't investigate Mario if we've lynched him. At that point the number of people to investigate would be four.
If Mario is guilty and there are three mafia that leaves two mafia, so there's a fifty/fifty chance that she will have investigated one of them. If Mario was innocent it doesn't matter, unless we're lucky and either there are only two mafia or the doctor was successful.
If Mario isn't lynched then Lambie's best course of action is to investigate Mario.
Actually, wargaming this out...
[snip]
Mario is innocent, and we don't lynch him. I think the mafia can't avoid showing their hand at this point, unless we're very unlucky. We probably win.
[snippety-snip]
OK, how does that work out?
I understand the rest of it. I think you under-estimate our chances if Mario is innocent and lynched (because the bad guys are still going to be a minority, and we'll still have a detective) but since I agree with you that this would be a bad outcome even so, I won't quibble there.
How are we in a winning position if he's innocent and not lynched? We won't know he's innocent unless he gets investigated or murdered in the night, and still go into the next day needing to get it right or lose (exactly as we would if we got rid of him), assuming that there are three bad guys. Mario not being around won't stop the detective investigating someone, or the bad guys killing someone, and keeping him won't enable more investigation or prevent murder.
Not voting out anyone (whoever it is) looks to me like putting off the decision until tomorrow. Not a losing move, necessarily, but hardly one that makes the difference between 'probably lose' and 'probably win'. Unless I've missed something.
There are effectively eight of us at the moment unless Steve reappears. We don't know how many mafia there are, but three mafia out of twelve players to begin with seems not unreasonable. I'm not staking anything on only two mafia before I have to. So: we assume five innocents and three mafia. So if we lynch an innocent we go into the night with four innocents and three mafia. If the mafia successfully murder someone that leaves us with an equal number of mafia and innocents. The innocents can't win at that point.
(Unless there's a veteran or vigilante, but again I don't want to rely on that unless I have to.)
If there are only two mafia we have more leeway not to lynch an innocent, but also more leeway not to lynch anyone.
As for what happens if we don't lynch Mario: Lambie can investigate him. If she does and he's guilty we'll know; if he's innocent I think that clears me too, as the only reason a mafia person would try to stop lynching an innocent person at this stage is to be deliberately over-complicated. (As if we lynch him and he's innocent the mafia win; see above).
At that stage we have four cleared innocents, including a detective. It goes down to three because the mafia will kill one of us. So we'd need to guess right who to lynch the next round (three in four chance of getting it right). But if we guess it right and the doctor's still in play at that point I think we win
The problem we have is that apart from individual niggles about one or two individuals, there are no obvious Mafia candidates, ignoring the how much or little certain people are posting issue. With 9 people left, of whom a third might well be Mafia, then I agree today/tonight is critical, and we have to hope the Mafia don't get the Doctor if we want to keep using Lambie beyond tonight.
Thankfully although Mr Huang does appear to have become the quiet character who hardly appears in these kind until the end, mathematically he does still exist, so we would still have a citizen majority tomorrow morning even if we lynch an innocent and the Mafia get someone tonight.
If we don't lynch anybody, we can't accidentally kill the docor, whom I have a great fondness for (obviously) and I can get you more news on one person overnight.
Naomi glances up from reading Deuteronomy, probably to split the vote just in case I go ahead and actually nominate him. Admittedly this does look suspicious on Steve's part or he might just have a death wish.
At that stage we have four cleared innocents, including a detective. It goes down to three because the mafia will kill one of us. So we'd need to guess right who to lynch the next round (three in four chance of getting it right). But if we guess it right and the doctor's still in play at that point I think we win
Then I don't get why you aren't nominating whichever one of those four you think is guilty right now. Or encouraging others to do that.
It's all very well letting known innocents nominate - you can at least be sure they won't be deliberately misleading us - but being known as innocent doesn't give someone any more knowledge about who's guilty. And if the pool of suspects who might be guilty all decline to voice their suspicions and give reasons, and (like Mario) refuse even to offer a credible defence and talk about voting themselves out, that gives us sod all to analyse and consider when nominating.
I'm starting to think that you're part of the problem, Dai. Maz might be innocent - you could be right about that, although I still think he's bloody suspicious - but if you think that, you could definitely be doing more to help find the guilty, and you aren't.
I think we don't have time to fuck about. I've nominated already, so I can't nominate you, but if someone did, I'd vote you over Mazza at this point. I think Penny is a good investigation target (or Maz, if we still have him), and I wish to fuck everyone else was saying more about who they suspect.
You can investigate me all you like but if the Mafia come after me as a result your plans might meet a sticking point!
The problem is that we have no serious contenders for the Mafia, there's not been enough we can analyse to voice suspicions about people. Mario could believably take that line In Character. I was also a bit surprised Dai didn't nominate anyone. I haven't after reading Karen wrong, and unfortunately nominations have closed now.
The only way the Mafia aren't coming after you eventually is if you're one of them. We can't stop them from killing someone who's innocent, and right now, I'd really like to know whether you're on our side.
Because if you are, and Maz is, too, then I think Dai's the only plausible suspect.
I don't believe that some combination of Naomi/Nem/Fifi/Steve planned this big conspiracy of silence from the get-go. I think someone on the dark side would have been picked to be their voice, and that it was probably Dai. If it's not you, and it's not Mario, then I'm almost certain that it had to be Dai.
If I'm wrong about that, and you're a villain, we need to get rid of you first chance we get after today. If I'm right, and it's Dai, we need to get rid of him, and as he's a slippery unreadable sort, the only way we'll nail him, I think, is to vote out Mario, and investigate you.
I don't much like that, because a Mario/Dai guilty pairing isn't an obvious one. Dai got more invested in trying to argue Mazza's innocence than he needed to. That might be him displaying his ferrous gonads, but it's also entirely plausible that he knows Mario is innocent and will argue (fallaciously) that that clears him, too. It's a fallacy because the bad guys know who is innocent, and arguing for a particular person being innocent (especially when that person will probably be unprotected and can be killed at will to prove them 'right') is essentially cost-free to the baddies, so it don't prove nothing that someone's right about someone else's innocence.
The fact that Dai (if guilty) is trying it, and the fact that if Mario is bad, no other bad guy put up a different nominee, both make me worry.
I can see an argument for 'no lynching', but if we do that, I think we're gambling everything on Maz being sound, and I'm not so sure of that that I want to take the risk.
I didn't nominate anyone, partly because I want to give the detective space, and as I've argued, we can afford one no lynching, but we can't afford a mistake; and mostly because before Steve reappeared, and I'm still not counting on him, if Mario is innocent and you vote for him, it would be impossible with eight voters and three mafia to vote off if my nominee were guilty.
Ethan think carefully about what roles your plans rely on....
I am. I just don’t know if we have those roles, or who they are if we do.
I think I’d rather vote out Mario than give an unknown vigilante a random shot in the dark.
Mario has four votes for safety (including his own uncast vote). One more vote for ‘no lynching’ saves him. I’d like to see who, if anyone, of those left is willing to cast it before I vote.
Penny wanders around looking for specific herbs that have caught her eye for a new potential 'wonder tea' and muttering about the sun giving eye trouble.
I don't see how though how concerns about Dai automatically equal voting off Mario, but I think that at this stage getting a better idea of people's vote patterns on both sides, and not just ending at 5 no lynchings would be useful so although I'm not convinced of his guilt, as it's more likely he'll survive.
Comments
It saddens me but doesn't surprise me that Andy has been shuffled off the island. The Mafia aren't likely to go for Lambie as the chance of a wasted kill when the detective is protected by the doctor is far too high, so realistically they're going to have a crack at the rest of us.
I'm not sure if not talking makes someone innocent or guilty: it's entirely possible they don't want to give themselves away or they may feel they don't have a lot to contribute. Karen had made herself a target with her character's attitude.
Nah, Maz, you've heard from me already. The plan's working. The bad guys can't stop Lambie clearing one more person. That will make three confirmed innocents. If the doctor declares, that makes four (and, no, the doctor shouldn't declare yet, obviously). One more - another investigation, or better still the Masons if we got them - and we win. And since Steve is very likely innocent, because the bad guys seem a lot more on their toes than he is, we might not even need that one more.
Catching the bad guys sooner is a bonus, but one well worth playing for. And for that you don't really need to hear from me. You need to hear from the people we don't know about.
But since you ask, I'm suspicious of you, Mazza. You've not committed yourself to any real position yet. You've asked questions to undermine confidence in any really solid ideas, but not tried to give us any ideas we can work with.
OK, due allowance for the fact that, like the rest of us, you just got caught in a shit shower with no brolly, but whereas some of us are looking for shelter, you're stood in the open, looking up to heaven, mouth gaping, and bawling "how can we stop this shower of shit?" Keep doing that and it starts looking like you like it that way.
I'm not sure of Dai, either. He's not really done anything to justify suspicion, but he won't, 'cos he's really fucking smart. He's never going to give himself away with any big mistake. But he knows I suspect you, and if his last comment was meant as a steer towards Lambie's suspicions rather than mine, AND (which, I admit, is at this stage a big assumption) you ain't kosher, then that might have been a little mistake, which is as much as he'll ever get if he is guilty.
The trouble is, the reason I mention you and Dai, is that you two are the only two to really say enough for me to think about, and find possible mistakes in. So what I need, is what you need (if you're a good guy, that is) - other people to tell us what they are thinking.
Most people when they're the mafia are worried that anything they say might give them away, and therefore say as little as possible.
So on the whole I'd guess Mario is innocent. (Though I'm entirely fallible.)
I wish.
If "as little as possible" means "as little as possible while remaining inconspicuous", then yeah, I agree, except that anyone known to be a motormouth can't really play that game.
So far, there's you (Dai), me (Ethan), Lambie and Mario, how can really be said to have engaged. And of those, Mario is conspicuous for the lack of any real substance to his contributions.
Penny's been active (nominating, voting, and giving some reasons) without being very verbose.
The rest? Naomi, nem, Fifi and Steve have contributed pretty much no ideas at all, and Steve has been catatonic for most of the time.
Of all of those, Penny's hit the sweet-spot of being almost perfectly inconspicuous, which would be really great play for an assassin, but that doesn't mean she's guilty. There most necessarily be innocents who've engage more, and less, than she has, so it's entirely plausible that she could be innocent and engage at that level.
What we really need is for the innocently inactive to get far more vocal, so that the guilty have to raise their game and contribute if they want to keep looking inconspicuous - because that makes it more likely they'll make mistakes and we'll spot them.
For today, I take your point about how Mazza wouldn't look this suspicious if he was actually guilty, but I can't see why he'd look this suspicious if he was innocent either.
I don't want this just to be about me and my suspicions, though. Because unless I hear from other people about their suspicions, I don't have the evidence to form my own suspicions with any level of certainty. So I'll hold off for now.
But we can't afford to waste an opportunity, so I will be nominating Mario in the absence of an equally plausible nomination from someone else.
If Lambie doesn't nominate anyone I'll vote for your nomination, but I think you're basing it on a misinterpretation of the data here. Whereas if Lambie takes a random guess at one of the quiet people in the worst case she's got a fifty-fifty chance of hitting a mafia.
Nah, 'cos the worst case is that the bad guys are you, Maz and Penny, and then fishing in the quiet pool will be pointless.
I'm not saying that the bad guys are you, Maz and Penny, but we're both thinking that Steve probably isn't, and I'd be a bit surprised if all of the bad guys were giving it the low profile, and all of Naomi, Nem and Fifi were guilty, so at least one of you three probably is.
And I'll admit that you and Penny being guilty scares me, because if either of you are, you'll be damned hard to catch out. Neither of you look as good a guess as Mario at this point.
I really want to hear what Naomi, Nem, Fifi, Steve and (a little less urgently) Penny are thinking now.
I get the impression that Dai and Ethan are not entirely on the same side, but the question is who to believe, without getting sucked in by who is the most charming.
Nominating Mario is a bad move, not just because it's me and I'm innocent, but because if you kill Mario and then the Mafia lynches another innocent, aren't we sunk? I really don't want to lose the game. Being suggested to be nominated by Eliab plays right into the Mafia's hands. I was starting to be suspicious of Dai, and I thought we'd be better going after one of the quiet ones, but right now Dai is who I'd choose to go. Presuming that it is true that Ethan is cleared.
(I got lynched as an innocent the first time I played the game too, it appears that talking merely brings suspicion.)
Fuctifino whether he's telling the truth.
I had to stare very hard at the word "fuctifino" and then say it out loud to myself as I thought it was a new kind of sherry.
[/tangent]
I was including Penny in the quiet pool; I haven't noticed her make any substantial contribution to strategy.
I estimate the odds of Mario being guilty at about 3/7 if there are three mafia, and 1/4 if there are two, which given that there are only six suspects and I know one of them is innocent (me) makes him the second least likely suspect.
(The numbers assume that a mafia member will be half as likely to be talkative, which figure is plucked out of the air somewhat.)
(FWIW der Lambie, I thought that playing a game like this, that being active was why and how to play. Though I don't know I am wise to deceptive tactics, even if Mario spent a chunk of time in prison.)
I think that it is unlikely that all the bad guys are keeping quiet, so one of Mario, Penny and Dai is probably guilty.
Mario and Penny might make decent targets for investigation. Dai, won’t, because while he might be lying about being unreadable, if he’s telling the truth we can’t clear him. If he’s innocent, he is also useful.
Steve is so quiet and unengaged he’s probably innocent.
If there’s anyone with any reason to think anything good or bad about Naomi, Nem or Fifi, let’s hear it. I’m not convinced that any of them are guilty. I’d vote for them if that were the consensus, but I wouldn’t much like it.
I’ll nominate, probably Mario, but I’m open to changing my mind, in the next few hours because we need someone to vote about. Don’t let that stop the rest of you sticking your oars in, though.
Mario
If Mario is the only nominee by a known innocent, I'll vote for him (if Ethan doesn't change his mind and there are three mafia and Mario is not one of them, we can't lynch a mafia member so we'd better just hope Mario is one of them), but I think the odds are against.
We need someone else to be nominated. I'd rather be investigated so I can at least play on,
Probably anything I say at this point will be interpreted as mafia. If I think beyond myself, is it bad game play to vote for myself, so that other innocents don't get targetted? If Dai is right, that may be the only way my team can win, even if my character is deadibyes as a consequence.
I;ll be your Jesus, doing the death so that ye all may live.
Mario is innocent and we do lynch him. We're then reliant on the doctor to guess the mafia's target. That's not a situation I'd like to be in.
Mario is guilty and we do lynch him. The mafia target another innocent (call them W).
Then we're at:
Goodies: Ethan, Lambie, me, X.
Baddies: Y, Z.
Lambie will 50/50 have investigated either Y or Z. So we're then in a winning situation if the doctor is still alive, and a 50/50 situation if the doctor isn't. If she investigated X or W, there's a good chance of getting the nomination wrong (if Ethan keeps thinking the way he's thinking he will probably nominate me for want of a better target), and then we're not in a good situation as above.
Mario is innocent, and we don't lynch him. I think the mafia can't avoid showing their hand at this point, unless we're very unlucky. We probably win.
Mario is guilty and we don't lynch him. Lambie investigates Mario, finds him guilty, and we all lynch him. In the meantime, the mafia will have targeted one of the two remaining innocents who aren't me, Ethan, or Lambie. Ethan probably nominates me for lynching next, which is a mistake. At that point we are at:
Goodies: Ethan, Lambie, X.
Baddies: Y, Z.
That's a losing situation.
I think Mario is just about more likely to be innocent than not. So I will be voting No Lynching.
I have gone back and checked the player list as your maths doesn't seem to add up Dai
Andy Kipper (Wet Kipper) Killed by Mafia
Mr Steve Huang (SirPalomides) somewhat AWOL
Dai Onstage (Dafyd) claims unreadability
Nem the cat (not entirely me)
Mario Huana Hirnlos (Noprophet_NOprofit)
Dame Fifi McNulty (Firenze)
Patrick Royce (Sipech) Killed by Mafia
Lambie LaCosta (Lamb Chopped) uncontested detective
Ethan Eliab (Eliab) detective declared innocent
Penny Drago (Pendragon)
Naomi Spinner, Apostle™ (Net Spinster)
Karen White (Gwai) Lynched
Currently there are 9 people still alive and present on this island. Unless Lambie has been leading us up the garden path (and if the doctor's been following Ethan's instructions advice, they would I think be justifiably peeved about that) we only have 2 absolutely guaranteed innocents given we can't trust anyone right now as the only person each of us knows alignment for sure is ourselves and the Mafia aren't going to stand up and shout 'It's Meee'. So Lambie would have a much larger pool than 2 to pick from whether Mario is still here or not, and if the doctor's going to gamble that the Mafia won't attack Lambie for the risk of a wasted kill, they've also got a 'eenie meenie minie mo' situation to pick the target for tonight from everyone else.
Lambie won't investigate me if she believes I'm telling the truth about being unreadable; she won't investigate Mario if we've lynched him. At that point the number of people to investigate would be four.
If Mario is guilty and there are three mafia that leaves two mafia, so there's a fifty/fifty chance that she will have investigated one of them. If Mario was innocent it doesn't matter, unless we're lucky and either there are only two mafia or the doctor was successful.
If Mario isn't lynched then Lambie's best course of action is to investigate Mario.
OK, how does that work out?
I understand the rest of it. I think you under-estimate our chances if Mario is innocent and lynched (because the bad guys are still going to be a minority, and we'll still have a detective) but since I agree with you that this would be a bad outcome even so, I won't quibble there.
How are we in a winning position if he's innocent and not lynched? We won't know he's innocent unless he gets investigated or murdered in the night, and still go into the next day needing to get it right or lose (exactly as we would if we got rid of him), assuming that there are three bad guys. Mario not being around won't stop the detective investigating someone, or the bad guys killing someone, and keeping him won't enable more investigation or prevent murder.
Not voting out anyone (whoever it is) looks to me like putting off the decision until tomorrow. Not a losing move, necessarily, but hardly one that makes the difference between 'probably lose' and 'probably win'. Unless I've missed something.
(Unless there's a veteran or vigilante, but again I don't want to rely on that unless I have to.)
If there are only two mafia we have more leeway not to lynch an innocent, but also more leeway not to lynch anyone.
As for what happens if we don't lynch Mario: Lambie can investigate him. If she does and he's guilty we'll know; if he's innocent I think that clears me too, as the only reason a mafia person would try to stop lynching an innocent person at this stage is to be deliberately over-complicated. (As if we lynch him and he's innocent the mafia win; see above).
At that stage we have four cleared innocents, including a detective. It goes down to three because the mafia will kill one of us. So we'd need to guess right who to lynch the next round (three in four chance of getting it right). But if we guess it right and the doctor's still in play at that point I think we win
Thankfully although Mr Huang does appear to have become the quiet character who hardly appears in these kind until the end, mathematically he does still exist, so we would still have a citizen majority tomorrow morning even if we lynch an innocent and the Mafia get someone tonight.
Please cast your votes. You may vote for
- Mario Huana Hirnlos, nominated by Ethan Eliab (and also Steve Huang, but Ethan got there first)
- No lynching
Five votes are required to secure a lynching.Then I don't get why you aren't nominating whichever one of those four you think is guilty right now. Or encouraging others to do that.
It's all very well letting known innocents nominate - you can at least be sure they won't be deliberately misleading us - but being known as innocent doesn't give someone any more knowledge about who's guilty. And if the pool of suspects who might be guilty all decline to voice their suspicions and give reasons, and (like Mario) refuse even to offer a credible defence and talk about voting themselves out, that gives us sod all to analyse and consider when nominating.
I'm starting to think that you're part of the problem, Dai. Maz might be innocent - you could be right about that, although I still think he's bloody suspicious - but if you think that, you could definitely be doing more to help find the guilty, and you aren't.
I think we don't have time to fuck about. I've nominated already, so I can't nominate you, but if someone did, I'd vote you over Mazza at this point. I think Penny is a good investigation target (or Maz, if we still have him), and I wish to fuck everyone else was saying more about who they suspect.
The problem is that we have no serious contenders for the Mafia, there's not been enough we can analyse to voice suspicions about people. Mario could believably take that line In Character. I was also a bit surprised Dai didn't nominate anyone. I haven't after reading Karen wrong, and unfortunately nominations have closed now.
The only way the Mafia aren't coming after you eventually is if you're one of them. We can't stop them from killing someone who's innocent, and right now, I'd really like to know whether you're on our side.
Because if you are, and Maz is, too, then I think Dai's the only plausible suspect.
I don't believe that some combination of Naomi/Nem/Fifi/Steve planned this big conspiracy of silence from the get-go. I think someone on the dark side would have been picked to be their voice, and that it was probably Dai. If it's not you, and it's not Mario, then I'm almost certain that it had to be Dai.
If I'm wrong about that, and you're a villain, we need to get rid of you first chance we get after today. If I'm right, and it's Dai, we need to get rid of him, and as he's a slippery unreadable sort, the only way we'll nail him, I think, is to vote out Mario, and investigate you.
I don't much like that, because a Mario/Dai guilty pairing isn't an obvious one. Dai got more invested in trying to argue Mazza's innocence than he needed to. That might be him displaying his ferrous gonads, but it's also entirely plausible that he knows Mario is innocent and will argue (fallaciously) that that clears him, too. It's a fallacy because the bad guys know who is innocent, and arguing for a particular person being innocent (especially when that person will probably be unprotected and can be killed at will to prove them 'right') is essentially cost-free to the baddies, so it don't prove nothing that someone's right about someone else's innocence.
The fact that Dai (if guilty) is trying it, and the fact that if Mario is bad, no other bad guy put up a different nominee, both make me worry.
I can see an argument for 'no lynching', but if we do that, I think we're gambling everything on Maz being sound, and I'm not so sure of that that I want to take the risk.
I am. I just don’t know if we have those roles, or who they are if we do.
I think I’d rather vote out Mario than give an unknown vigilante a random shot in the dark.
Mario has four votes for safety (including his own uncast vote). One more vote for ‘no lynching’ saves him. I’d like to see who, if anyone, of those left is willing to cast it before I vote.
I don't see how though how concerns about Dai automatically equal voting off Mario, but I think that at this stage getting a better idea of people's vote patterns on both sides, and not just ending at 5 no lynchings would be useful so although I'm not convinced of his guilt, as it's more likely he'll survive.
Vote Mario
No lynching.
Penny. If Mario survives he's got questions for Penny. I think I have to state them now before my possible death. How do you justify this? Pray tell.