Mainland China currently has seen more than 70,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, according to the World Health Organization. And while the country has suffered the majority of deaths associated with the outbreak, health experts in China say there are signs that the pace at which the virus is spreading might be slowing down.
As NPR's Emily Feng reports from Beijing:
"Today's numbers from China's national health commission show that the rate at which new cases reported outside Hubei province, where the epidemic has been concentrated, has dropped for two weeks. China's top state epidemiologist said earlier this week that he expected the outbreak to peak sometime in April.
"However, distrust in official state statistics is still high. Hubei in part has the largest share of virus cases in China because it is the only province that discloses so called clinical cases — symptomatic patients who haven't tested positive for the virus. Other provinces are mandated to collect such data but have not disclosed these types of cases publicly."
We could do, though it's not the usual practice of the C of E, and we would have to go out and buy them (and the trays, I suppose). It would also make more work for Madam Sacristan, which would not be a Good Idea...
It seems more sensible to simply NOT use the chalice pro tem, and it has been made clear to people that receiving in one kind only (i.e. the Host wafer) is a 'full' Communion, IYSWIM.
In fact, Home Communions are usually in one kind only, anyway.
With us Micks, partaking of the Blood is an optional extra. IIRC, my childhood parish only offered it on special occasions. Usually the Priest drank at the end of the Eucharist. I feel like the practice has changed over the last 50 years though. These days, the Blood is offered as a matter of course, and beautiful chalice work is very much appreciated by the discerning members of the congregation.
Iranian deputy health minister has contracted the virus, and the Guardian reports fears of widespread infection, on what basis, don't know. I suppose this is the worry, that a country with a worse health system than China, will not cope.
Well I saw the first cancellation of an interpreting job today due to the CEO in question deciding not to travel. I fully expect more such cancellations
The BBC report on Iran is even worse, no quarantines, little medical equipment, and more cases than reported. I don't see how it can be stopped, unless it dies down naturally, as some reports on China suggest.
Tomorrow is Ash Wednesday. I would normally smudge ashes on a dozen or so foreheads, my hand in the path of the individual’s exhalation and me sneezing into my elbow if necessary. My colleague will be doing the same for some 40 people in a nursing home. I understand that here in New England the risk is assessed currently as low but that standard precautions are wise. I will therefore lead the penitential rite as usual, but preach that ashes are an outward sign of an inward awareness and intention -- that we ‘rend our hearts and not our garments’ so to speak -- and that this year we will not bless or use ashes.
Goodness knows that those who do “Ashes on the run” through car windows and at train stations will do.
What are you doing differently, if anything?
(I cede to the Hosts if this should more appropriately be in Ecclesiantics)
I've already posted a query about Ash Wednesday services generally (in Eccles, on the Liturgical Questions thread), but I see your point.
Given that we are withholding the chalice at Our Place pro tem, and that FatherInCharge uses a hand-sanitiser before handling the Hosts at Communion-time, I wonder if he will use the hand-sanitiser before imposing the Ashes?
Would that suffice as a precaution, do you think?
I plan (DV) to attend either a neighbouring church, or the Cathedral, tomorrow (our service is far too late in the day for me), so will be interested to see what they do.
Yes, I would thing hand sanitizer would be fine......
My little flock has several, shall I say, "very cautious" individuals. My mother used to say that if going to church killed me it probably served me right.
ISTM that whatever the priest may think, the 'cautiousness' of the Faithful needs to be taken into account, and I'm sure the visible use of hand sanitizer would allay any fears.
Hand sanitisers are marketing bulldust. They are only slightly less effective than soap and water though (channeling David Mitchell). Here is one of my favorite Mitchell and Webb sketches.
Can I just remind everyone that the overwhelming majority of people who contract the virus experience mild flu-like symptoms. For all but those with a compromised immune system, this will be a pandemic of feather duster disease. This is no Spanish Flu people.
That still means a lot of dead people even if most will be elderly or have pre-existing conditions and it means overwhelmed hospitals so there will be collateral deaths. Also healthy young people have died. Not as deadly as SARS or MERS but still very nasty even if many people get a relatively mild case.
This is primarily to get access set up for necessary resources--kind of getting all the ducks in a row before a parade. A couple of other California cities have done the same.
Re masks: I know there've been advisories that masks don't help. But I saw a bit of a press conference with a doctor from WHO, and he was wearing one.
That still means a lot of dead people even if most will be elderly or have pre-existing conditions and it means overwhelmed hospitals so there will be collateral deaths. Also healthy young people have died. Not as deadly as SARS or MERS but still very nasty even if many people get a relatively mild case.
True, but ordinary or garden influenza means quite a few dead people too, as does a heat wave or a cold snap, and the conflict in Idlib province. I'm partly with Rush Limburgh on this one: Its a liberal media beat up to attack the Great and Powerful Donald J. Trump.
I am a tad concerned for friends who've been in Venice for the Carnival. K is as compromised as all get out - diabetes, heart, much besides.
I am grateful that a project workshop in London was moved online as the Chinese clients couldn't travel. The last such outing left Mr F with a month-long cold, and that was before all this.
Hand sanitisers are marketing bulldust. They are only slightly less effective than soap and water though (channeling David Mitchell). Here is one of my favorite Mitchell and Webb sketches.
Can I just remind everyone that the overwhelming majority of people who contract the virus experience mild flu-like symptoms. For all but those with a compromised immune system, this will be a pandemic of feather duster disease. This is no Spanish Flu people.
It’s the volume of cases that is the problem. One person off sick in a team of 20 is annoying, 10 off at the same time is a business continuity risk. If that happens all over the place at the same time it is seriously disruptive. We control the risks from seasonal flu with vaccines, which also means we experience much lower than ‘natural’ mortality from it most of the time. If one in a hundred people die, and a million people catch it within 6 months - that’s a lot of deaths in a very short time.
Spanish Flu was not a particularly deadly virus - mortality rates were high because of the after affects of war. This virus will Be devastating in Syria, and anywhere with a more vulnerable population.
The BBC report on Iran is even worse, no quarantines, little medical equipment, and more cases than reported. I don't see how it can be stopped, unless it dies down naturally, as some reports on China suggest.
The fear is, if it’s allowed unchecked, it may learn to mutate and adapt like the flu does.
Vaccines are needed asap, I think. People at deaths door won’t mind being first in the trials. 🤔
FWIW, an outbreak of Spanish flu today likely wouldn’t kill as many people as it did in 1918. The war was one aspect, as DT says, and the high mortality rate came at least in part from people contracting secondary (bacterial) pneumonia. Antibiotics have been invented in the meantime, which means secondary pneumonia can be treated much more successfully.
FWIW, an outbreak of Spanish flu today likely wouldn’t kill as many people as it did in 1918. The war was one aspect, as DT says, and the high mortality rate came at least in part from people contracting secondary (bacterial) pneumonia. Antibiotics have been invented in the meantime, which means secondary pneumonia can be treated much more successfully.
I understand that the thing with Spanish Flu was that it attacked young and healthy people disproportionately.
In any event, I have been a bit of a dick in this thread. Of course it is sensible to take precautions, especially where people are involved in managing gatherings such as worship services. My apologies.
As one who is Aged, Infirm, and with a compromised immune system, I accept your apologies.
At the lunchtime Eucharist today at the Cathedral, the priest used a hand-sanitizer after imposing the ashes, but I couldn't see whether he also used it before Communion (he did do the ritual lavabo thingy with water).
Intinction was forbidden, but peeps were reminded that receiving in one kind only is perfectly OK.
One of the interesting things about this virus, I think, is that its mildness makes it dangerous. I mean that since many people don't die from it, or even don't know they have it, it can spread more easily. In fact, in terms of evolution, it has found a successful strategy. If everyone died, it wouldn't spread as readily. I think there is a "sweet spot" for a virus, between mildness and severity, but I suppose the common cold and flu have hit the jack pot. Apologies for numerous anthropomorphisms.
Spanish Flu was not a particularly deadly virus - mortality rates were high because of the after affects of war. This virus will Be devastating in Syria, and anywhere with a more vulnerable population.
It killed people in many places totally uninvolved in the War.
I think it's gonna suck, and we're going to have a nasty week on the couch in my household (just like 2009 then). But I don't think we're all Doomed. My congregation is going to have to check on all the elderlies and live-alones, though, and run Pedialyte or what-have-you in. Chicken soup. That sort of thing.
The good thing is, most viruses that go on hanging around for years and years tend to mutate into something less deadly, even as our immune systems learn to deal with them. Eventually we find a modus vivendi as we have done with the 2009 flu. It's getting through the first pandemic that is hardest.
This tweet has a useful graph of provisional data on COVID-19. The horizontal axis is contagiousness and the vertical axis is deadliness. COVID-19 is that big red box, or more accurately the big red box represents the potential range of COVID-19's contagiousness and deadliness, with the actual information being a single point that's (probably) within that box. At least with the data we have on hand currently.
So "seasonal flu" (there are helpful comparison diseases plotted on the chart for context) is at the lower left corner of that big red box, meaning that represents the "best case scenario" (from a human perspective) for COVID-19's contagiousness and deadliness. The upper right corner is the worst case scenario, which is something about as contagious as polio and only slightly less deadly than SARS.
I understand that the thing with Spanish Flu was that it attacked young and healthy people disproportionately.
I was at a talk on Spanish Flu last year, and the speaker said that there had been a flu outbreak in the late 1880s. It was a much milder flu than Spanish flu. Those who had been ill in the 1880s had some level of immunity to the Spanish flu. Hence those too young to have experienced the 1880s flu were disproportionately affected.
I listened to the news conference 45 had on the Coronavirus. A whole lot of gibberish. I think Pence just wanted him to STF up. He certainly did not instill any confidence in me.
More on the press conference. There seemed to be two different conferences going on, sharing the same podium. 45 was claiming "only 15 people in the US had contracted the disease and it will soon be down to 0. Yet the health people there were saying that there are 60 people in the US that have the virus and it will likely increase substantially. We heard the person who claims to be president his people have it all under control. Yet the health people were saying it is time to prepare for the worse. Even though the pseudo president named Pence to be in charge of the Coronavirus task force at the news conference, it was news to HHS Secretary Azar who had been leading the task force. Just 16 minutes ago CNN said Azar is still claiming he is the chair of the task force.
Well, I didn't say it was quality thinking, did I? I was just wondering whether he meant fairies were going to whisk them away, or they would just go up in a puff of bubbles, or keel over dead...
or whether he'd wish them away, like Bill Mumy in "It's A Good Life", one of the most horrifying episodes of the original "Twilight Zone". Bill Mumy played a little boy who was born with a variety of strong psychic abilities *switched on full blast*. He'd never had a chance to learn to deal with "no", develop empathy, cope with frustration, etc. And when he didn't get what he wanted...
(:shudder:)
At least T doesn't have those abilities. But there are parallels.
(:double shudder:)
I maintain an open mind on the question of whether Trump is actually a chatbot in a skinsuit. They've turned out to be just as racist and incoherent pretty often.
I have been assuming that this virus in a poor area, with not very good medical facilities, could spread like wildfire. However, this could be wrong. But imagine it taking hold in a refugee camp. As to Europe and the US, don't know. Presumably, control wouldn't be as pervasive as in China, but I notice that Japan has closed schools, and I suppose the Olympics will be cancelled, if this continues.
On another forum a (US) poster mentioned that, because they've had to take 2 lots of 2 days off because of seasonal flu, if they take another day off from their job at Walmart before June they will automatically be fired. Situations like this raise the possibility that people will be forced out of economic necessity to not report signs of the illness and hence spread it further. I wonder how many people in customer facing or food preparation roles are in this sort of situation. In the UK I can imagine the government passing emergency legislation making such firings illegal to help contain the outbreak. I'm less certain that the state governments in places like Tennessee can be relied on to do the same.
I've already posted a query about Ash Wednesday services generally (in Eccles, on the Liturgical Questions thread), but I see your point.
Given that we are withholding the chalice at Our Place pro tem, and that FatherInCharge uses a hand-sanitiser before handling the Hosts at Communion-time, I wonder if he will use the hand-sanitiser before imposing the Ashes?
Would that suffice as a precaution, do you think?
I plan (DV) to attend either a neighbouring church, or the Cathedral, tomorrow (our service is far too late in the day for me), so will be interested to see what they do.
Here in the Scottish Episcopal Church we were given a link to the CofE guidelines. I understood withholding the Chalice wasn't instructed?
I am on immuno-suppressant medication myself so am not entirely blasé about all this. But my medication also means I get a regular sniffle so depending on building temperatures I sometimes have to blow and dab with tissues. I have considered keeping a sanitiser alongside the lavabo. We continue shaking hands at the Peace, and we didn't do anything differently regarding the Ashes.
As yet, while we chat about the virus news after the service, no-one has made any comments about what we do during the service. If things continue, I'll probably make an announcement about receiving in one kind if anyone has concerns. Only one person in the congregation intincts, and that's a child under the instructions of its parent.
@Anselmina ,you are quite right - withholding the chalice has NOT been instructed, but churches are asked to consider this course of action. Sorry for a misleading earlier post!
At Our Place, FatherInCharge has decided to withhold the chalice, and AFAIK there have been no murmurs or complaints. He uses the hand-sanitizer immediately before Communion.
We, too, still shake hands at The Peace.
At the Cathedral yesterday, Communion was available in both kinds, but the priest stressed that it was equally valid in one kind only, and that intinction was forbidden. He used the hand-sanitizer after the Ashing, but I couldn't see whether he used it in addition to the customary lavabo.
On another forum a (US) poster mentioned that, because they've had to take 2 lots of 2 days off because of seasonal flu, if they take another day off from their job at Walmart before June they will automatically be fired. Situations like this raise the possibility that people will be forced out of economic necessity to not report signs of the illness and hence spread it further. I wonder how many people in customer facing or food preparation roles are in this sort of situation. In the UK I can imagine the government passing emergency legislation making such firings illegal to help contain the outbreak. I'm less certain that the state governments in places like Tennessee can be relied on to do the same.
The firing would be illegal here already. You cannot be fired for a health related condition, particularly when it is temporary. I believe we see fines in the 10K range. A firing within 3 months of an illness is legally risky.
I've seen the information in the past about intinction and infection. Hand shaking is obvious. I wonder if anyone has examined ashes and whether they are a repository for bacteria and viruses.
Hand sanitizer was required by order 2 bishops ago during the SARS infection time. It is since then, ubiquitous. It is used before distribution of the elements by all in the altar party and lay assistants, and it is discretely available to all on the way to communion. It's been incorporated as one of those things that is done without thinking, much like shuffling through a pew leaflet/bulletin.
I have seen, back when I was a lay assistant, a priest more than once, volun-tell another clergy to please handle communion, as the priest in illness was prepared to sermonize and infect others spiritually with feverish fire but not with their snot and sneezles.
On another forum a (US) poster mentioned that, because they've had to take 2 lots of 2 days off because of seasonal flu, if they take another day off from their job at Walmart before June they will automatically be fired. Situations like this raise the possibility that people will be forced out of economic necessity to not report signs of the illness and hence spread it further. I wonder how many people in customer facing or food preparation roles are in this sort of situation. In the UK I can imagine the government passing emergency legislation making such firings illegal to help contain the outbreak. I'm less certain that the state governments in places like Tennessee can be relied on to do the same.
The firing would be illegal here already. You cannot be fired for a health related condition, particularly when it is temporary. I believe we see fines in the 10K range. A firing within 3 months of an illness is legally risky.
You can be fired for ill-health here but have some protection if you have a disability.
In France you can exercise your "right to withdrawal" from work if there is a serious danger to health, and get some pay for a period of time. While you cannot be sacked for doing this, it's not a good way to encourage promotion either...
One of the interesting things about this virus, I think, is that its mildness makes it dangerous. I mean that since many people don't die from it, or even don't know they have it, it can spread more easily. In fact, in terms of evolution, it has found a successful strategy. If everyone died, it wouldn't spread as readily. I think there is a "sweet spot" for a virus, between mildness and severity, but I suppose the common cold and flu have hit the jack pot. Apologies for numerous anthropomorphisms.
There is a mobile phone game called Plague Inc which has seen its downloads rocket recently. I last played it a number of years ago. The premise is to create and mutate a virus which takes over (and kills) the entire world.
I remember the best strategy being to make it more spreadable in the early days of "mutation" rather than more deadly, as that way the world kind of ignored it - then once its spread was far enough, mutate to a more deadly strain so the world's scientists couldn't keep up.
Very cunning. There seem to be viruses that are fatal to many, e.g., Ebola, but I'm nor sure about various plagues, which seem to have been contagious and deadly. But today rare, not sure why, improved hygiene?
Comments
From NPR's daily report:
With us Micks, partaking of the Blood is an optional extra. IIRC, my childhood parish only offered it on special occasions. Usually the Priest drank at the end of the Eucharist. I feel like the practice has changed over the last 50 years though. These days, the Blood is offered as a matter of course, and beautiful chalice work is very much appreciated by the discerning members of the congregation.
Goodness knows that those who do “Ashes on the run” through car windows and at train stations will do.
What are you doing differently, if anything?
(I cede to the Hosts if this should more appropriately be in Ecclesiantics)
Given that we are withholding the chalice at Our Place pro tem, and that FatherInCharge uses a hand-sanitiser before handling the Hosts at Communion-time, I wonder if he will use the hand-sanitiser before imposing the Ashes?
Would that suffice as a precaution, do you think?
I plan (DV) to attend either a neighbouring church, or the Cathedral, tomorrow (our service is far too late in the day for me), so will be interested to see what they do.
My little flock has several, shall I say, "very cautious" individuals. My mother used to say that if going to church killed me it probably served me right.
Can I just remind everyone that the overwhelming majority of people who contract the virus experience mild flu-like symptoms. For all but those with a compromised immune system, this will be a pandemic of feather duster disease. This is no Spanish Flu people.
This is primarily to get access set up for necessary resources--kind of getting all the ducks in a row before a parade. A couple of other California cities have done the same.
Re masks: I know there've been advisories that masks don't help. But I saw a bit of a press conference with a doctor from WHO, and he was wearing one.
True, but ordinary or garden influenza means quite a few dead people too, as does a heat wave or a cold snap, and the conflict in Idlib province. I'm partly with Rush Limburgh on this one: Its a liberal media beat up to attack the Great and Powerful Donald J. Trump.
I am grateful that a project workshop in London was moved online as the Chinese clients couldn't travel. The last such outing left Mr F with a month-long cold, and that was before all this.
It’s the volume of cases that is the problem. One person off sick in a team of 20 is annoying, 10 off at the same time is a business continuity risk. If that happens all over the place at the same time it is seriously disruptive. We control the risks from seasonal flu with vaccines, which also means we experience much lower than ‘natural’ mortality from it most of the time. If one in a hundred people die, and a million people catch it within 6 months - that’s a lot of deaths in a very short time.
Spanish Flu was not a particularly deadly virus - mortality rates were high because of the after affects of war. This virus will Be devastating in Syria, and anywhere with a more vulnerable population.
The fear is, if it’s allowed unchecked, it may learn to mutate and adapt like the flu does.
Vaccines are needed asap, I think. People at deaths door won’t mind being first in the trials. 🤔
And Europe was still in the grip of tuberculosis.
In any event, I have been a bit of a dick in this thread. Of course it is sensible to take precautions, especially where people are involved in managing gatherings such as worship services. My apologies.
At the lunchtime Eucharist today at the Cathedral, the priest used a hand-sanitizer after imposing the ashes, but I couldn't see whether he also used it before Communion (he did do the ritual lavabo thingy with water).
Intinction was forbidden, but peeps were reminded that receiving in one kind only is perfectly OK.
It killed people in many places totally uninvolved in the War.
The good thing is, most viruses that go on hanging around for years and years tend to mutate into something less deadly, even as our immune systems learn to deal with them. Eventually we find a modus vivendi as we have done with the 2009 flu. It's getting through the first pandemic that is hardest.
So "seasonal flu" (there are helpful comparison diseases plotted on the chart for context) is at the lower left corner of that big red box, meaning that represents the "best case scenario" (from a human perspective) for COVID-19's contagiousness and deadliness. The upper right corner is the worst case scenario, which is something about as contagious as polio and only slightly less deadly than SARS.
I was at a talk on Spanish Flu last year, and the speaker said that there had been a flu outbreak in the late 1880s. It was a much milder flu than Spanish flu. Those who had been ill in the 1880s had some level of immunity to the Spanish flu. Hence those too young to have experienced the 1880s flu were disproportionately affected.
And the beat goes on...
...probably not.
Well, I didn't say it was quality thinking, did I?
or whether he'd wish them away, like Bill Mumy in "It's A Good Life", one of the most horrifying episodes of the original "Twilight Zone". Bill Mumy played a little boy who was born with a variety of strong psychic abilities *switched on full blast*. He'd never had a chance to learn to deal with "no", develop empathy, cope with frustration, etc. And when he didn't get what he wanted...
(:shudder:)
At least T doesn't have those abilities. But there are parallels.
(:double shudder:)
Influenza is not what this is.
Notwithstanding that the people who are more likely to die in the USA are poor, don't have healthcare, are of racial minorities.
But the flu is completely irrelevant.
I maintain an open mind on the question of whether Trump is actually a chatbot in a skinsuit. They've turned out to be just as racist and incoherent pretty often.
Here in the Scottish Episcopal Church we were given a link to the CofE guidelines. I understood withholding the Chalice wasn't instructed?
I am on immuno-suppressant medication myself so am not entirely blasé about all this. But my medication also means I get a regular sniffle so depending on building temperatures I sometimes have to blow and dab with tissues. I have considered keeping a sanitiser alongside the lavabo. We continue shaking hands at the Peace, and we didn't do anything differently regarding the Ashes.
As yet, while we chat about the virus news after the service, no-one has made any comments about what we do during the service. If things continue, I'll probably make an announcement about receiving in one kind if anyone has concerns. Only one person in the congregation intincts, and that's a child under the instructions of its parent.
At Our Place, FatherInCharge has decided to withhold the chalice, and AFAIK there have been no murmurs or complaints. He uses the hand-sanitizer immediately before Communion.
We, too, still shake hands at The Peace.
At the Cathedral yesterday, Communion was available in both kinds, but the priest stressed that it was equally valid in one kind only, and that intinction was forbidden. He used the hand-sanitizer after the Ashing, but I couldn't see whether he used it in addition to the customary lavabo.
The firing would be illegal here already. You cannot be fired for a health related condition, particularly when it is temporary. I believe we see fines in the 10K range. A firing within 3 months of an illness is legally risky.
Hand sanitizer was required by order 2 bishops ago during the SARS infection time. It is since then, ubiquitous. It is used before distribution of the elements by all in the altar party and lay assistants, and it is discretely available to all on the way to communion. It's been incorporated as one of those things that is done without thinking, much like shuffling through a pew leaflet/bulletin.
I have seen, back when I was a lay assistant, a priest more than once, volun-tell another clergy to please handle communion, as the priest in illness was prepared to sermonize and infect others spiritually with feverish fire but not with their snot and sneezles.
You can be fired for ill-health here but have some protection if you have a disability.
There is a mobile phone game called Plague Inc which has seen its downloads rocket recently. I last played it a number of years ago. The premise is to create and mutate a virus which takes over (and kills) the entire world.
I remember the best strategy being to make it more spreadable in the early days of "mutation" rather than more deadly, as that way the world kind of ignored it - then once its spread was far enough, mutate to a more deadly strain so the world's scientists couldn't keep up.