Purgatory: Coronavirus

15681011106

Comments

  • Yes, my wife goggled when I fished out some sanitizer for her. Old stock.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    edited March 2020
    The loo roll buying is definitely out of hand in some places.

    But ...

    They make loo roll down the road from me (Cushelle) but loo roll supply is tricky. The paper pulp is shipped in tankers from Belgium and Sweden to the UK and then processed here. It’s one of those “just in time” processes so there’s not a huge amount of stock in reserve. Most supermarkets have enough for a day or two only.

    It’s going to be interesting following the Brexshit transition period. The pulp has to be delivered within a day/day and a half otherwise it sets solid in the tankers!

    How do I know this? One of my kids (that I used to teach) dad worked there and his daaughter took great pride in telling me the process!
  • German virologist is arguing that school closures, stopping large gatherings, etc., does arrest the spread of viruses, and criticizes German measures. No link, Alexander Kekule, in Guardian today. How on earth would we know?
  • On face-touching, I attended some training on food prep safety and to drive home the point about washing our hands, the trainer put some stuff on our hands that marked our faces when we touched it. I can't remember exactly how it worked except that it made the point quite well.
  • Re the possible shortage of toilet paper, the solution is to buy the Daily Wail (and other such rubbish), or perhaps recycle other people's copies, to save money, and to avoid increasing the publisher's profits.

    Cut the paper into neat squares, thread the pieces together with string via a hole in one corner, and there you are!

    Mind you, I wouldn't insult my b*m by using such stuff... :grimace:

    (My local Co-Op seemed fully stocked with everything as per usual today.)
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.

    I don't think we're in a position to cast stones when Jeremy Hunt is in charge of the House of Commons Select Committee on Health and Matt Hancock (along with most of the rest of the government) thinks we should dismantle what's left of the NHS.

  • Twilight wrote: »
    In other news, another Princess Line Cruise is in trouble. That business is probably over. I have a brother who constantly watches the stock market. He's been crying for weeks now. The crash may ultimately hurt far more people than the virus.

    The crash, and people staying home whether on order from work or by choice, and thus not partronizing small businesses. Josephine works at a very large company downtown, which owns or leases a dozen smallish buildings, which are surrounded and inundated by places to buy lunch. And all personnel who are able to work from home have been ordered to. How many of those businesses will survive this?
  • Jane R wrote: »
    If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.

    I don't think we're in a position to cast stones when Jeremy Hunt is in charge of the House of Commons Select Committee on Health and Matt Hancock (along with most of the rest of the government) thinks we should dismantle what's left of the NHS.

    I didn't appoint either of them, nor vote for anyone who did.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Daily Mail has a cheery headline, 15 million to die under best case scenario. I suppose the tabloids will get off on this. They cite a death rate of 3.4%, but this is false surely, as it omits mild cases.

    The 3.4% figure comes from WHO, which stated that "globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died". The key word there is not "died" or "3.4%" but "reported". Outside of places like China, South Korea, Japan, etc. there seems to be a massive failure of surveillance testing meaning that "reported COVID-19 cases" is likely only a small fraction of actual COVID-19 cases. This is one of those good news/bad news situations. Good news: COVID-19 is probably has a lower fatality rate than 3.4%. Bad news: COVID-19 is way more widespread than official figures indicate.

    As an illustration the American CDC currently [6 March 2020] claims that there have been 99 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., of whom 10 have died. That's a case fatality rate (CFR) of over 10%. We could assume that American medicine is just really incompetent, allowing people to die who would have lived if they'd been treated in Japan or South Korea, or we could assume that the actual fatality rate is more like 1%, implying that 90% of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. are undiagnosed. In other words it's not that there's no problem, it's that there's a different problem than the one most people are concentrating on.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    mousethief wrote: »
    The crash, and people staying home whether on order from work or by choice, and thus not partronizing small businesses. Josephine works at a very large company downtown, which owns or leases a dozen smallish buildings, which are surrounded and inundated by places to buy lunch. And all personnel who are able to work from home have been ordered to. How many of those businesses will survive this?

    Related to this, Microsoft has announced that it will continue to pay full-schedule wages to its hourly subcontractors.
    As the impact of COVID-19 spreads in the Puget Sound region and northern California, Microsoft has asked its employees who can work from home to do so. As a result, we have a reduced need in these regions for the on-site presence of many of the hourly workers who are vital to our daily operations, such as individuals who work for our vendors and staff our cafes, drive our shuttles and support our on-site tech and audio-visual needs.

    We recognize the hardship that lost work can mean for hourly employees. As a result, we’ve decided that Microsoft will continue to pay all our vendor hourly service providers their regular pay during this period of reduced service needs. This is independent of whether their full services are needed. This will ensure that, in Puget Sound for example, the 4,500 hourly employees who work in our facilities will continue to receive their regular wages even if their work hours are reduced.

    Good for Microsoft, though not all employers (or even all tech giants) will likely follow this lead.
  • If the US is reporting 99 cases of the virus, something is wrong, isn't it? Underreporting, but I don't know if that's because of lack of testing.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited March 2020
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Outside of places like China, South Korea, Japan, etc. there seems to be a massive failure of surveillance testing meaning that "reported COVID-19 cases" is likely only a small fraction of actual COVID-19 cases. This is one of those good news/bad news situations. Good news: COVID-19 is probably has a lower fatality rate than 3.4%. Bad news: COVID-19 is way more widespread than official figures indicate.

    Assuming as above that China caught the majority of their cases, then we do have preliminary mortality rates by age - via the WHO report. Of course, these will be subject to all sorts of factors such as average health and so on.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    If the US is reporting 99 cases of the virus, something is wrong, isn't it? Underreporting, but I don't know if that's because of lack of testing.

    It is.
    The Trump administration won’t be able to meet its promised timeline of having a million coronavirus tests available by the end of the week, senators said after a briefing from health officials.

    “There won’t be a million people to get a test by the end of the week,” Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida said in Washington Thursday. “It’s way smaller than that. And still, at this point, it’s still through public-health departments.”

    Scott and other lawmakers said the government is “in the process” of sending test kits out and people still need to be trained on how to use them. The entire process could take days or weeks, they said.

    <snip>

    The lack of testing kits for hospitals and health departments has created a gaping vulnerability in the U.S. effort to contain the virus. Success depends on local health departments being able to identify patients, isolate them, and stop them from infecting others. Instead, local health authorities have been finding some new patients only when they become more seriously ill, and then discovering clusters of infection around them without knowing where the web of transmission originated.

    As I mentioned about a week ago the lack of tests in the U.S. is the product of policy decisions. Trump was happy to take credit for limiting travel in efforts to contain COVID-19. That effort apparently bought the U.S. about six weeks, which it seems to have squandered. Now the Trump administration* has to admit that it's previous assurances that containment worked were wrong, and admitting it was wrong is something neither Trump nor his administration* seems capable of, so getting those tests out there has been a low priority.

    BTW, for those not familiar with Rick Scott he oversaw the largest Medicare fraud in U.S. history when he was working in the private sector. Naturally that's who the Republicans picked to be their point man on this issue.
  • IOW, Trump has cocked up yet again.

    Nothing to see here...move along, please...
    It really is a job to know how seriously to take this thing, at least in this part of the UK. At church, we are complying with all the sensible precautions recommended (and even taking those a bit further than may actually be necessary, not that that's a Bad Thing IMHO).

    I haven't heard of any cases locally, which is not to say that there aren't (or haven't been) any, but for the moment, at least, the reports of our Imminent Doom are somewhat exaggerated.
  • Yes, it's like the phoney war. Will the real war start soon? I suppose a lot of is precautionary, to avoid the gruesome Italian situation, if we can.
  • Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has now removed the common cup, and requests people, while at church, not to greet/pass the Peace through touch; to space themselves at the communion rail, and anyone with sniffs and sneezles to stay at home*. We can still visit our housebound flock, for now, except again those who may be sniffling and sneezling. And sanitizer at the credence table for priest and administrants alike to be discreetly in use.

    Hand sanitizer appears to be had for neither love nor money just at the moment. Even wipes are hard to find. I suspect I shall be administrating our very small stock of the hand gel stuff even more carefully than the Sacrament on Sunday!

    *This does make me cock an ironic eyebrow. In a part of the world where coughs and runny noses because of cold, rainy weather is pretty much par for the course, this could wipe out our entire congregation!
  • Yes, it's like the phoney war. Will the real war start soon? I suppose a lot of is precautionary, to avoid the gruesome Italian situation, if we can.

    Indeed - and better safe than sorry, of course.
    Anselmina wrote: »
    Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has now removed the common cup, and requests people, while at church, not to greet/pass the Peace through touch; to space themselves at the communion rail, and anyone with sniffs and sneezles to stay at home*. We can still visit our housebound flock, for now, except again those who may be sniffling and sneezling. And sanitizer at the credence table for priest and administrants alike to be discreetly in use.

    Hand sanitizer appears to be had for neither love nor money just at the moment. Even wipes are hard to find. I suspect I shall be administrating our very small stock of the hand gel stuff even more carefully than the Sacrament on Sunday!

    *This does make me cock an ironic eyebrow. In a part of the world where coughs and runny noses because of cold, rainy weather is pretty much par for the course, this could wipe out our entire congregation!

    The C of E hasn't gone quite this far, but I shall this Sunday refrain from hand-shaking at The Peace, thereby setting a Godly and Pious Example to the Faithful.

    FatherInCharge may well decide to do away with the hand-shaking, anyway :wink:

  • I shall now opt for that great sanitizer, a double scotch.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Eutychus wrote: »
    Meanwhile the largest evangelical church in France unwittingly creates an infection cluster (currently 7 people) via a fasting conference.

    Sure enough, one of the people at that conference, a sometime member of our own church, was at the above conference and subsequently attended a prophecy seminar and Sunday service at the church just across the river from us, and is now in our city hospital after testing covid-19 positive. It hasn't taken long for this to reach somebody I know.
  • Anselmina wrote: »
    Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has now removed the common cup, and requests people, while at church, not to greet/pass the Peace through touch; to space themselves at the communion rail, and anyone with sniffs and sneezles to stay at home*. We can still visit our housebound flock, for now, except again those who may be sniffling and sneezling. And sanitizer at the credence table for priest and administrants alike to be discreetly in use.

    Hand sanitizer appears to be had for neither love nor money just at the moment. Even wipes are hard to find. I suspect I shall be administrating our very small stock of the hand gel stuff even more carefully than the Sacrament on Sunday!

    *This does make me cock an ironic eyebrow. In a part of the world where coughs and runny noses because of cold, rainy weather is pretty much par for the course, this could wipe out our entire congregation!

    The C of E hasn't gone quite this far, but I shall this Sunday refrain from hand-shaking at The Peace, thereby setting a Godly and Pious Example to the Faithful.

    FatherInCharge may well decide to do away with the hand-shaking, anyway :wink:
    Updated SEC guidelines are based on updated COfE guidelines, so you may find it has all changed....
  • Yes - it's a job to keep up!

    I've already suggested to FatherInCharge that we cease the hand-shaking, and he started withholding the chalice a couple of weeks ago, anyway.

    He hasn't AFAIK curtailed his Home Communion (and other) visits.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    He hasn't AFAIK curtailed his Home Communion (and other) visits.
    This is a slightly different, and very real, challenge.

    I don't intend to stop visiting inmates unless I'm prohibited from doing so or clearly in danger of being contagious.

    Social distancing and avoiding 'mingling' is important in all this, but on the fact of it, that also appears to be the total opposite of what Church is all about... and there's a particular risk to front-line people of all kinds, with an associated risk of "decapitation".

  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    As an illustration the American CDC currently [6 March 2020] claims that there have been 99 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., of whom 10 have died. That's a case fatality rate (CFR) of over 10%. We could assume that American medicine is just really incompetent, allowing people to die who would have lived if they'd been treated in Japan or South Korea, or we could assume that the actual fatality rate is more like 1%, implying that 90% of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. are undiagnosed. In other words it's not that there's no problem, it's that there's a different problem than the one most people are concentrating on.

    CBS Morning show said the total number cases was 220 and a total of 14 have died. That would put the death rate at .06.

    CBS last night interviewed the first man who had been identified as human to human contact patient. He said all he experienced was like a severe cold. Which could mean there are thousands more like him who think they just have a bad cold.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    CBS Morning show said the total number cases was 220 and a total of 14 have died. That would put the death rate at .06.

    Interestingly you get a similar number if you look only at (known) cases with an outcome on a global basis. The death rate seems to be ~6% of all resolved cases while recovery/discharge is ~94%. Of course this has the same confirmation bias of not including undetected cases since anyone in the recovered/discharged category would have contracted the virus at least two weeks ago, at time when testing was not as widespread as it is now.
  • ZappaZappa Shipmate
    I shall now opt for that great sanitizer, a double scotch.

    But no - it's Lent. We're doomed.
  • It's medicinal.
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host
    kingsfold wrote: »
    Anselmina wrote: »
    Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has now removed the common cup, and requests people, while at church, not to greet/pass the Peace through touch; to space themselves at the communion rail, and anyone with sniffs and sneezles to stay at home*. We can still visit our housebound flock, for now, except again those who may be sniffling and sneezling. And sanitizer at the credence table for priest and administrants alike to be discreetly in use.

    Hand sanitizer appears to be had for neither love nor money just at the moment. Even wipes are hard to find. I suspect I shall be administrating our very small stock of the hand gel stuff even more carefully than the Sacrament on Sunday!

    *This does make me cock an ironic eyebrow. In a part of the world where coughs and runny noses because of cold, rainy weather is pretty much par for the course, this could wipe out our entire congregation!

    The C of E hasn't gone quite this far, but I shall this Sunday refrain from hand-shaking at The Peace, thereby setting a Godly and Pious Example to the Faithful.

    FatherInCharge may well decide to do away with the hand-shaking, anyway :wink:
    Updated SEC guidelines are based on updated COfE guidelines, so you may find it has all changed....

    Not at the time if this post
  • I see now that finally another state lost a patient; now the death toll is:

    Washington: 13
    California: 1.

    We're still number one! We're still number one!

    Just got this email from our parish priest:

    All of you know the concerns of the Corona Virus in King County and of course we at Holy Apostles are concerned for everyone’s health and wellbeing. The best way to prevent illness is to avoid being exposed to this virus so please follow these basic guidelines from King County Public Health and the CDC:

    --Please stay home if you are sick, have flu-like symptoms or feel you might be sick.
    --Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
    --Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.
    --Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
    --Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
    --Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.
    --For the next several weeks, we will not offer our usual kiss of peace greeting before the creed but will gently bow to each other as an offering of respect.

    Thank you for understanding, may God have mercy on us, and wishing you a Lenten season that renews your faith in Christ!

    +fr. tom and the parish council
  • Received a suggestion if over 60 years make sure that your will is up to date. Not a bad idea in any case.
  • HuiaHuia Shipmate
    One of the scientists here wrote a brilliant piece for one news outlet that included the advice on wills, but I noticed her article in NZ's largest circulation news site left that piece of advice out. Personally I found it really helpful.

    A fifth person has now been diagnosed in Auckland. Two of the people who have it now are partners of people who were diagnosed earlier.
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    Is it just me, or is there a direct link between thinking about not touching your face and how itchy your nose feels?
  • Penny SPenny S Shipmate
    No, not just you, there is. I am very carefully not touching!
  • Is it just me, or is there a direct link between thinking about not touching your face and how itchy your nose feels?

    Oh yes.

    I only ever get an itchy nose when operating and thus completely unable to scratch....
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Norfolk UK has as yet no confirmed cases, but the latest advice is to be prepared. As someone in their late 70's with pre-existing breathing issues and some other health problems, I'm taking this seriously. I'm definitely in the "high risk" category if I catch this virus. So I'm going for a significant reduction in visits to public places (including my local church) and staying quietly at home. We live with a well stocked fridge , freezer and store cupboard and have just made some marginal increases to give us about enough for two weeks isolation if it comes to that.

    I think each of us needs to assess our own risks and responses, keep an eye on fresh information and respond without panic.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    I note some supermarkets with an online delivery service say, we’re happy to deliver to you if you are self-isolating, but please contact us about where to leave the shopping.
  • finelinefineline Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    The NHS self-isolation advice also says: 'make sure you tell delivery drivers to leave items outside for collection if you order online.'
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    It’s good to see it flagging on the shops websites as well. Though Deliveroo of course haven’t bothered yet.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    I’m thinking of driving to a local and doing a big shop this weekend, I may be the only person panic buying gazpacho ...
  • The thing about public places seems confusing. Some experts seem to be saying that being in a football stadium is not particularly dangerous, and no more than going to the pub. Of course, you can do neither.
  • (It strikes me that being at home for two weeks could be significantly less lonely than it used to be, thanks to the internet :smile: Good Luck, B62. I think my Mum and Dad will be taking similar precautions; but I'll be surprised if even this drives my Mum to looking at a website!)
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    I feel for all Shipmates with elderly parents and relatives. We had a lot in our time but all have passed away now. I would be very worried about them.

    I am carrying on as normal - and travelling as usual until the foreign office say not to. In fact I booked tickets today for Heidelberg on Wednesday - really cheap as nobody is flying.
  • rhubarbrhubarb Shipmate
    I would suggest that those administering communion should wear surgical gloves so as not to infect the bread/wafers they are distributing. I think the communion cup will have to be withheld until the emergency is over.
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host
    The recommendation is that those administering communion should make appropriate use of hand sanitizer before administering. Properly done that ought to suffice.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    edited March 2020
    BroJames wrote: »
    The recommendation is that those administering communion should make appropriate use of hand sanitizer before administering. Properly done that ought to suffice.

    So long as they touch no surfaces before administering.
    rhubarb wrote: »
    I would suggest that those administering communion should wear surgical gloves so as not to infect the bread/wafers they are distributing. I think the communion cup will have to be withheld until the emergency is over.

    This will make no difference whatever if they touch infected surfaces, or their own face whilst wearing the gloves. Clean hands are just as good as clean gloves.

  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    BroJames wrote: »
    The recommendation is that those administering communion should make appropriate use of hand sanitizer before administering. Properly done that ought to suffice.
    @BroJames I've answered this here!

  • Our Bishop suggested not serving food at church gatherings, broadcasting services if things get worse.
  • NicoleMRNicoleMR Shipmate
    My Employers (the New York Public Library) are having us all watch a 3 minute video on how to wash your hands (it's from the CDC). As well as formulating policies that are mostly common sense (stay home if sick, do what your doctor says, etc.).
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    At our monthly Walsingham Cell Mass this morning, I 'exchanged' The Peace by employing the Namaste bow. I felt a bit self-conscious, but they all seemed to get the message, and responded with a wave of the hand, or a slight inclination of the head, and a smile...

    I'll try it again tomorrow with the Parish Mass congregation, and will hopefully have the opportunity to see if anyone follows suit.
    :wink:

    (BTW, I understand that the words namaste and namaskar both come from Sanskrit, thus potentially adding another language to the Greek, Latin, and English that we use in the Mass... :grin:)
  • CameronCameron Shipmate
    As a hopeless Trekkie, I have been trying to promote the Vulcan salute as an alternative...

    🖖🏻

    If nothing else, the accompanying wish that those greeted might ‘live long and prosper’ feels right at the moment...
  • TwilightTwilight Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Is it just me, or is there a direct link between thinking about not touching your face and how itchy your nose feels?

    Hah! After bragging, yesterday, about how I never touch my face, my nose and eyes have itched continually.
    Boogie: This will make no difference whatever if they touch infected surfaces, or their own face whilst wearing the gloves. Clean hands are just as good as clean gloves.

    Yes! I watch "Hoarders" and see the professional cleaners, who have been touching contaminated junk all day with their rubber gloves, use those gloved fingers to touch their faces. I sometimes count the number of times per minute that these women, gloved or not gloved, push their hair back off their face . In fact the CDC should probably suggest pony tails because some women do that hair push a hundred times a day.
Sign In or Register to comment.