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Purgatory: Coronavirus

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  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Today I have been coaching our pastor how to video stream services all day.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    An observation:
    James Palmer
    @BeijingPalmer
    If - and it's a big if - we get this right, the measures will feel like an overreaction afterward. Not very bright people will say 'I don't know why we made all that fuss, when only a few thousand people died in the end.'
    12 March 2020

    I'm remembering Y2K.
  • Yes, "Defensive measures worked, therefore there was no real threat" is a constantly recurring human idiocy.
  • As has been widely shared on social media, our government has learnt the four stage strategy of dealing with crisis.

    Thanks Alan :smile: I sent that to my elderly Mum and Dad, to cheer them up.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    Philippines acting UN Ambassador Kira Azucena said: “As of today, the Philippine mission is in lockdown, and all personnel are instructed to self-quarantine and to seek medical attention should they develop the symptoms. We are assuming that all of us have been infected.”

    It is thought the mission has 12 diplomats in New York, located on 5th Avenue in Manhattan. The woman, who has not been named, is believed to have been asymptomatic when she was at the UN building on Monday, before falling ill on Tuesday.

    The White House press secretary, Stephanie Grisham, meanwhile said President Donald Trump did not need to be tested, despite meeting a Brazilian official last weekend who has been diagnosed with Covid-19.

    Grisham said the pair had “almost no interactions”, despite being pictured together.

    Is she saying they didn’t shake hands?

    Unlikely imo.
  • GalilitGalilit Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Today I have been coaching our pastor how to video stream services all day.

    Pretty quick on the uptake is he/she?
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    We're working hard on that right now.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    I've started a dedicated thread to discuss these aspects in Ecclesiantics - thanks @Gramps49 and @Galilit for the inspiration!

  • Crœsos wrote: »
    An observation:
    James Palmer
    @BeijingPalmer
    If - and it's a big if - we get this right, the measures will feel like an overreaction afterward. Not very bright people will say 'I don't know why we made all that fuss, when only a few thousand people died in the end.'
    12 March 2020

    I'm remembering Y2K.

    Great minds....
    https://forums.shipoffools.com/discussion/comment/257556/#Comment_257556

    :wink:

    AFZ
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    Our senior managers appear to have almost daily, remote meetings re covid scheduled - with a senior bod assigned as a full time covid lead. There is a huge amount of active prep work going on. I have also been heartened in conversation with frontline care providers, who seem to be getting lots of information cascaded from their companies about what to do.

    Went to a day centre with folk with moderately severe intellectual disabilities, and staff had being doing hand wash work with them - showing videos and getting them to pick a song and singalong while practising. (Obviously, they already support personal hygiene routinely, but are trying to ramp this up, for folks who don’t really understand what is going on.)
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Our MP has now self-isolated and cancelled surgeries after coming down with symptoms after spending time debating mental health with Nadine Dorries. I suspect there will be other MPs who have had close contact to Ms Dorries taking similar measures over the next few days. After that, MPs will also be going down after contact with coronavirus by other routes.

    If we had a functioning democratic Parliament this could be a problem. Given the dysfunctional nature of our Parliament at the moment it probably won't make much difference.
  • Chart comparing responses across Europe from Lewis Goodall on which the U.K. appears to be the outlier.

    From looking at the statements both governments are coming out with, it appears the German and U.K. governments are using similar models and assumptions -which are different from those used elsewhere in Europe.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    Well, we're living in a real-time experiment, and giving the epidemiologists plenty of data as to the best approach.

    I fully expect that the U.K.'s response will sit firmly in the "warnings from history" box...
  • I’d have preferred not to be in the control group.
  • edited March 2020
    Chart comparing responses across Europe from Lewis Goodall on which the U.K. appears to be the outlier.

    From looking at the statements both governments are coming out with, it appears the German and U.K. governments are using similar models and assumptions -which are different from those used elsewhere in Europe.

    There's a nice comment under that chart -
    'I understand the UK is being renamed the "control group"' :smiley:

    Germany is a little further along than us, but if we are working along the same lines - well, Germans are quite good at this kind of thing.

    Meanwhile this morning I was alarmed (but should not have been surprised) to note that graphs of infections vs time are starting to appear with a log y axis...
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    It makes a change from being the "out of control group"
  • CameronCameron Shipmate
    Is there any data showing which national strategies are being shaped by the country’s chief medical / scientific officer(s), and which are being determined by politicians with less regard for evidence?

    I realise it is going to be a hard road, but I am not convinced that the CMO and CSO have it wrong - and they seemed to be in charge of the plans rather than the PM, which was an important point for me.

    I also noted in the UK press briefing the comments that: all four UK CMOs agreed with the current approach; mention of behavioural science that imposing the most stringent measures too soon would result in a lack of compliance before the worst has passed; and the argument that the most stringent lock downs at an early stage might end up being cyclical - that is, repeated as new clusters emerge from re-infection across the global pool, when we think we have eliminated it. How do these points resonate with folks?


  • I was surprised by the amount of testing in UK, and reports that you can't get tested, even if you have symptoms. I'm not sure whether this arises out of shortage of staff, or a deliberate plan, or both. This will affect the statistics.
  • It’s end of term today at my son’s UK university and he’s received an email telling him to take all his coursework materials home with him in case they have to move online next term (next term starts in a month so sounds sensible with current expected disease trajectory).

    I teach with the Open University so am in the unusual situation of doing almost all my teaching online anyway. Though I wonder if we will end up having a lot of deferrals for the final assignments in May, especially in my faculty of Health and Social Care as my students are going to be very hard hit with this (most of my undergraduate students work at least part time in health care, some full time, whilst studying for a degree - I did my own first OU degree whilst working full time as a nurse.).
  • Cameron wrote: »
    mention of behavioural science that imposing the most stringent measures too soon would result in a lack of compliance before the worst has passed; and the argument that the most stringent lock downs at an early stage might end up being cyclical - that is, repeated as new clusters emerge from re-infection across the global pool, when we think we have eliminated it. How do these points resonate with folks?

    In general I'd note that the UK moved from a contain->delay phase with essentially no new restrictions being announced.

    The CMOs point about flattening the curve is one that has been made elsewhere and seems to make sense as an aspiration, but there were no policies announced that would make that reality.

    The behavioral science parts are by far the weakest link - this is a field that was heavily hit by the p-hacking scandal and the replication crisis (apart from anything else on school closures what was said contradicts the governments own studies elsewhere).
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    Also, there is no evidence that our curve has been affected in any way by the earlier Contain phase.

    I'm aware that a little knowledge is dangerous, but I really hope that Whitty isn't off on one.
  • Aren't they saying that most people are going to catch it? That seems to be at odds with countries in Asia that seem to have arrested it, but there is an argument that this is simply a delay.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    As a nominee for silver lining status, our probable white nationalist Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has been diagnosed with Covid-19. He recently met with William Barr and Ivanka Trump about the Five Eyes security arrangements. Knowing Dutton, he was probably trying to convince them to kneecap Johnson for not toeing the line on Huawei.

    One small step away, perhaps...
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    Also, there is no evidence that our curve has been affected in any way by the earlier Contain phase.

    I'm aware that a little knowledge is dangerous, but I really hope that Whitty isn't off on one.

    He has good credentials.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    Also, there is no evidence that our curve has been affected in any way by the earlier Contain phase.

    I'm aware that a little knowledge is dangerous, but I really hope that Whitty isn't off on one.

    Actually, there is a noticeable difference.

    I am also pleased to see the government taking scientific advice, I don't think this is being managed primarily from a political or pr perspective - even if you don't agree with the approach. The pandemic will peak, but it will not go away as a threat until we have a vaccine or a treatment. As a species we almost never eradicate diseases, smallpox being one exception - but that was done with vaccination.

    The idea that we also isolate for x months, then come out of isolation and then everything is fine, is an illusion. Isolation is only going to be useful for delaying spread, it will not stop people getting the illness eventually. The key point for vulnerable people is not that we can stop them getting the illness in the next 24 months, it is that when they do we can give them access to the best possible healthcare to maximise their chance of survival.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    I was surprised by the amount of testing in UK, and reports that you can't get tested, even if you have symptoms. I'm not sure whether this arises out of shortage of staff, or a deliberate plan, or both. This will affect the statistics.

    Basically, you can extrapolate from the hospital data - for every 1 hospital patient there will be x amount of community cases. Testing mild community cases is useful in the contain phase but not so much once the illness is endemic. It doesn't change the treatment, and pulls health staff and resources off to testing people with self-limiting illness (and risks testing staff in terms of their own exposure) - instead of treating people who are seriously ill.

    Testing is not a scorecard, it has to have a purpose.
  • I entirely agree with both of @Doublethink s posts.
    I think the government is responding to the scientific advice and putting in a staged plan to manage the crisis. One of the major advantages of a centralised health service is our ability to co-ordinate planning for public health; the nature of the NHS means that that our government knows an awful lot about the health of the nation and how our population responds to health information. Think of the government information campaign about AIDS in the 1980s.
    Of course, the disadvantage of a centralised system is the emphasis on efficiency, which is why we have fewer beds than some other countries.
    In such a crisis there is, of course, a risk of getting the balance wrong but I can see nothing to suggest political motivation behind this.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    edited March 2020
    Cameron wrote: »
    Is there any data showing which national strategies are being shaped by the country’s chief medical / scientific officer(s), and which are being determined by politicians with less regard for evidence?

    I realise it is going to be a hard road, but I am not convinced that the CMO and CSO have it wrong - and they seemed to be in charge of the plans rather than the PM, which was an important point for me.

    I also noted in the UK press briefing the comments that: all four UK CMOs agreed with the current approach; mention of behavioural science that imposing the most stringent measures too soon would result in a lack of compliance before the worst has passed; and the argument that the most stringent lock downs at an early stage might end up being cyclical - that is, repeated as new clusters emerge from re-infection across the global pool, when we think we have eliminated it. How do these points resonate with folks?
    I read this the same was as you, Cameron.
    The behavioral science parts are by far the weakest link
    And that is also fair comment. It may be the weakest part of the prediction model.

    I hope Whitty is right. And in general I'm opposed to 20/20 hindsight judgments. This is about balancing risks and making judgments on the basis of still incomplete information.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited March 2020
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    Also, there is no evidence that our curve has been affected in any way by the earlier Contain phase.

    I'm aware that a little knowledge is dangerous, but I really hope that Whitty isn't off on one.

    Actually, there is a noticeable difference.

    Whatever the other merits of testing - it will have an impact on the shape of that graph 1, especially when during that period the number of tests being carried out in the UK were lower than that being carried out in Italy.
    Testing mild community cases is useful in the contain phase but not so much once the illness is endemic. It doesn't change the treatment

    It can also help plan demand - and can help medical professionals know whether breathing difficulties need further investigation/hospital care etc.

    1 Note that the graph is logarithmic and over the period where it's flat you are talking about a difference of tens of cases.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Flattening the curve.

    In a nutshell, the discussion we are having and, more importantly, medical professionals are having is based on an agreement. It is essential to flatten the epidemic curve, otherwise the medical services will get swamped and people who have this the worst will die because of lack of capacity to treat them effectively. The disagreement is solely about the most effective means of flattening the curve.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Whatever the other merits of testing - it will have an impact on the shape of that graph 1, especially when during that period the number of tests being carried out in the UK were lower than that being carried out in Italy.

    The point is the shape not the absolute number - Italy's jump was to do with undetected community transmission. If you are not testing 100% of the population on the same day - which you are not - you are extrapolating what is really happening from a sample. The issue then becomes the parameters of the sample, and whether it has a enough power, plus the assumptions of whatever model or hypothesis you are using to predict from the data.

    The UK government at this time does not believe there's just under 600 cases of covid19 in the UK for example, they believe there are thousands. That will be based on what they know about spread patterns, the R figure etc based on all available sources of data not just what is happening in the UK.
    It can also help plan demand - and can help medical professionals know whether breathing difficulties need further investigation/hospital care etc.

    Covid testing will not answer that question.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    edited March 2020
    Not at all! I hope I didn't irritate you by repetition. I thought the agreement over the objective (to flatten the curve) with worth emphasising and the image of the curve is the best way of showing that agreement, It helps to scope the disagreements to point that they are about the best means to that agreed end.

    Personally, I think it is very good that sports authorities have decided to call off major public gatherings. People have to get to the arenas and the risks to arena staff and players need to be considered too. The CMO and the CSA did explain clearly that at low levels of infection the risk of attending large events may not be any greater than at small events (because of the numbers of folks we get close to) but I'm not surprised that sports authorities have got more cautious.
  • Whatever the other merits of testing - it will have an impact on the shape of that graph 1, especially when during that period the number of tests being carried out in the UK were lower than that being carried out in Italy.

    The point is the shape not the absolute number - Italy's jump was to do with undetected community transmission. If you are not testing 100% of the population on the same day - which you are not - you are extrapolating what is really happening from a sample.

    Given the sample size the shape of the graph at that point could equally just be noise.
    It can also help plan demand - and can help medical professionals know whether breathing difficulties need further investigation/hospital care etc.

    Covid testing will not answer that question.

    It's one means of separating a real breathing difficulty from an imagined one.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    The UK government at this time does not believe there's just under 600 cases of covid19 in the UK for example, they believe there are thousands. That will be based on what they know about spread patterns, the R figure etc based on all available sources of data not just what is happening in the UK.

    This rather undermines the BBC graph you linked to. If there are thousands of cases in the UK, it puts us very much closer to Italy.
  • TwilightTwilight Shipmate
    Doctor's in Italy are having to make some horrible decisions right out of a science fiction movie.
    From The Atlantic:
    Those who are too old to have a high likelihood of recovery, or who have too low a number of “life-years” left even if they should survive, will be left to die.

    This is when they have several people fighting for breath and only one ventilator. I wouldn't want to be any of them.
  • I don't think there is any sport left in the UK. Football and cricket cancelled, of course, tennis. Maybe some darts being played. Most rugby gone, except for Wales vs Scotland. Are you playing keepy uppy in your garden? OK.
  • CameronCameron Shipmate
    Cameron wrote: »
    mention of behavioural science that imposing the most stringent measures too soon would result in a lack of compliance before the worst has passed; and the argument that the most stringent lock downs at an early stage might end up being cyclical - that is, repeated as new clusters emerge from re-infection across the global pool, when we think we have eliminated it. How do these points resonate with folks?

    In general I'd note that the UK moved from a contain->delay phase with essentially no new restrictions being announced.

    The CMOs point about flattening the curve is one that has been made elsewhere and seems to make sense as an aspiration, but there were no policies announced that would make that reality.

    The behavioral science parts are by far the weakest link - this is a field that was heavily hit by the p-hacking scandal and the replication crisis (apart from anything else on school closures what was said contradicts the governments own studies elsewhere).

    If you have evidence that shows that replication issues have undermined specifically relevant studies, please share it as you have done with the helpful school closures evidence review report.

    Turning to that report, it shows a pretty wide range of predicted effects from the 45 modelling studies that could be used for that purpose; most suggest some positive benefit while a few show it making things worse. HOWEVER, the report has also digested the evidence to identify the conditions under which school closures would be expected to be most effective (pp27-28).

    It indicates that “...the greatest reductions being predicted to occur when:

    (1) R0 [replication rate - number of people each carrier infects] was low (e.g. <2)
    [and closures unlikely to be effective when R is high; current average from across studies is 3.28 and some estimates are much higher. Evaluation on this criterion does not favour closures.]

    (2) School closures were assumed to lead to large reductions or complete elimination of contact between school-aged children
    [during the press briefing, the assumption that contact between children would occur out of school was specifically mentioned. Evaluation on this criterion does not favour closures.]

    (3) Schools were assumed to close relatively early in the epidemic whilst the incidence was still low
    [Evaluation on this criterion does favour closures]

    (4) Age-specific ARs [attack rates] were higher in children than in adults [...] as compared to the situation where they varied little with age
    [In this case, the reverse is true - ARs seem to be higher with age. Evaluation on this criterion does not favour closures.]

    On this basis, the CMO seems to have made the right call, although judgement is clearly involved. I recommend reading the conclusions of the report too, on p32 onwards, about the various uncertainties.

    Long story short: the current decision not to close schools is not contradicted by the evidence.

    As much as we are all frightened and interpret the situation from our own perspective, I think the evidence is being used effectively. The evidence does, of course, require judgement and interpretation but I think that is most likely to be found in the offices of the CMO and CSO.

  • Thankfully snow is in the forecast 3rd weekend in a row. Will ski off the front porch 3rd weekend in a row.

    Meanwhile does anyone have recipes for toilet paper and hand sanitizer? That's what hoarders are going to eat.

    On addition to the prime minister, the leader of the New Democratic Party is also in quarantine. They haven't said is parliament is closed. This is Canada.
  • What about extra beds? Herd immunity implies large numbers of sick people, and some will die without a bed, (plus ventilator). I think Irish govt is looking at sports halls, etc.
  • Cameron wrote: »
    It indicates that “...the greatest reductions being predicted to occur when:

    (1) R0 [replication rate - number of people each carrier infects] was low (e.g. <2)
    [and closures unlikely to be effective when R is high; current average from across studies is 3.28 and some estimates are much higher. Evaluation on this criterion does not favour closures.]

    Given the 60% figure being quoted by the government I assume that they are working with R0 = 2.5
    (2) School closures were assumed to lead to large reductions or complete elimination of contact between school-aged children
    [during the press briefing, the assumption that contact between children would occur out of school was specifically mentioned. Evaluation on this criterion does not favour closures.]

    Yeah, but this is where they get into assumptions based on behavioral science studies which they haven't shared (similarly with the assumption that shutting stadiums will cause everyone to go to the pub instead - an effect that's going to be fairly difficult to model - what about public transport to and from stadiums vs fairly localized effects from pubs ).
    As much as we are all frightened and interpret the situation from our own perspective, I think the evidence is being used effectively. The evidence does, of course, require judgement and interpretation but I think that is most likely to be found in the offices of the CMO and CSO.

    As the price of me being right would be too high, I hope you are correct.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Eutychus wrote: »

    I refer the right honourable Shipmate to my previous answer :mrgreen:
  • I don't think there is any sport left in the UK. Football and cricket cancelled, of course, tennis. Maybe some darts being played. Most rugby gone, except for Wales vs Scotland. Are you playing keepy uppy in your garden? OK.

    As far as I know the shinty goes ahead. Smaller crowds, few grounds have stands of any kind so people just stand at random round the pitch. Some even sit in their cars to watch, though with small hard balls being whacked around I think parking your car pitch-side is asking for a broken windscreen. Also no virus in the Highlands, YET.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    The UK government at this time does not believe there's just under 600 cases of covid19 in the UK for example, they believe there are thousands. That will be based on what they know about spread patterns, the R figure etc based on all available sources of data not just what is happening in the UK.

    This rather undermines the BBC graph you linked to. If there are thousands of cases in the UK, it puts us very much closer to Italy.

    No it doesn't, both lines on the graph are confirmed cases - and by extension will have a shadow of many more - milder - untested cases.

    Think of it like a political opinion poll in the run up to the election. The polls are never based on a sample of the whole electorate - the predictions they make are based on assumptions about how well the pattern shown in the sample extrapolates to the electorate as a whole, not just on how big the sample is.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Cathscats wrote: »
    I don't think there is any sport left in the UK. Football and cricket cancelled, of course, tennis. Maybe some darts being played. Most rugby gone, except for Wales vs Scotland. Are you playing keepy uppy in your garden? OK.

    As far as I know the shinty goes ahead. Smaller crowds, few grounds have stands of any kind so people just stand at random round the pitch. Some even sit in their cars to watch, though with small hard balls being whacked around I think parking your car pitch-side is asking for a broken windscreen. Also no virus in the Highlands, YET.

    Hence, not playing the matches is a better strategy than playing the matches behind closed doors - when people go to communal venues to watch them anyway.

    However, the more useful function of cancelling them is about not pulling policing, healthcare and other public resources to support the event.
  • Golden KeyGolden Key Shipmate, Glory
    What about extra beds? Herd immunity implies large numbers of sick people, and some will die without a bed, (plus ventilator). I think Irish govt is looking at sports halls, etc.

    Here in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to commandeer hotels for that purpose.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Hmm. Well, at least the patients will (probably) be quite comfortable!

    A neat idea, though I hope it doesn't have to be implemented...

    @Cathscats - long may the virus avoid the Highlands of Blessed Alba.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    The UK government at this time does not believe there's just under 600 cases of covid19 in the UK for example, they believe there are thousands. That will be based on what they know about spread patterns, the R figure etc based on all available sources of data not just what is happening in the UK.

    This rather undermines the BBC graph you linked to. If there are thousands of cases in the UK, it puts us very much closer to Italy.

    No it doesn't, both lines on the graph are confirmed cases - and by extension will have a shadow of many more - milder - untested cases.

    Without trying to be a dick about this, at that point everything depends on your testing regime. If (like S Korea) you have a mass testing regime, you're going to pull up many more confirmed cases. If (like the US) you refuse to test, you're going to have very low confirmed cases.

    If (like the UK) you test those who present themselves for testing and who meet the criteria, then you're clearly going to under-report the number of cases, but you won't know by how many. This is almost exactly unlike a survey.
  • kingsfoldkingsfold Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has updated it's corona guidelines.

    Quite where we're supposed to find a well-ventilated sunlit place in which to store vestments, I have no idea, sunlight being in short supply here ....
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