UK Election

HugalHugal Shipmate
edited October 30 in Purgatory
So that it doesn’t take over the Brexit thread I thought it would be good to have an election thread.
It is early yet and Brexit will dominate but having a separate thread means that other issues can be discussed.
Labour seems to want to campaign on traditional lines, public ownership which will mean higher taxes.
Conservatives in getting Brexit done.
Lib-Dems on remaining in the EU
What do we think?
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Comments

  • Public ownership is expected to be funded through borrowing, but given it is for the reacquisition of profitable assets that should not be a problem. The net effect on the public finances is expected to be positive even before the impact of the utilities being managed in the long term public interest is felt.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, Epiphanies Host
    edited October 30
    The minority parties will do well and I think we could well end up with a coalition government. The SNP will sweep Scotland. Prediction about Labour and Tory numbers aren't easy to make.

    I've got a feeling that Labour will do well even in Brexit favouring Labour constituencies by majoring on the dilution of human rights in the current Brexit deal. "Vote Tory because of Brexit and you will shaft the unions.'
  • Election night is going to be very interesting round our way. One guaranteed retirement and a couple of people who aren't in the party they got elected to represent last time any more. One of the latter was a close count last time as their constituency is a tale of 2 halves and includes a uni and ex mining towns.

    If Labour can get across 'Boris wants to shaft the NHS and workers' rights' they should be ok.
  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    The SNP will sweep Scotland.
    Possibly, but expect the Scottish Tories to come out all guns blazing with "vote Tory to prevent a Second Independance Referendum and the SNP ruining Scotland more that they already are" - as if that's the most important thing for everyone right now, and barely a mention of anything else affecting the whole of the UK which is the responsibility of the people we're voting for

    too much of the literature (on all sides) is about what they don't like about their opponents and not about what they would actually want to achieve in Goverment

  • Barnabas62 wrote: »
    The minority parties will do well and I think we could we'll end up with a coalition government. The SNP will sweep Scotland.

    Bet you the SNP won't support anyone else in a coalition unless they're allowed another independence vote.....
  • HelenEvaHelenEva Shipmate
    I live in a safe seat so it doesn't really matter who I vote for. Given that voting tactically isn't going to be a thing, I can vote with my inclinations and right now my inclinations are really really struggling to find a political party with which they are happy. I'll vote because I think it'd be wrong not to but this is feeling like a slightly pointless exercise in my area.
  • The Lib Dems have already come out unambiguously against being in coalition with anybody. The SNP seems slightly more nuanced, saying they are against any election pacts.

    Sir John Curtice has predicted a "record number" of non Conservative/Labour MPs after the election, which will certainly spice things up.

    John McDonnell isn't going for a coalition either.
    "Let's make it clear there will be no deals, no coalition," says Labour's shadow chancellor John McDonnell, talking about the upcoming election.

    "We will go in as a majority government," he tells BBC Breakfast.

    "If we don’t win an overall majority, we will have a minority government.

    "We will put out our policies, we will implement them and if the Libs or whoever else don’t want to support a £10 living wage, if they don’t want to support our anti-austerity measures, invest in the NHS and all the rest, if they vote against them then we will go back to the people.”

    “We will win that election. We will win it under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership."

    So he thinks that if they end up as a minority government who don't get their way, we can have ANOTHER election. Ah well, vote early, vote often...
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    Not sure any seat is safe, in these 'interesting times'. Unless something changes radically between now and December 12 (I'm praying for the Second Coming, myself) I will be voting for the party that came second to the Conservatives in 2017, with my fingers crossed. There is no point in voting for the party I really support, because they don't have a cat in hell's chance of getting in, but if I don't vote for somebody the ghastly right-wing nutcase we have at the moment may get back in.
  • I'm trying to decide whether my seat is safe enough to vote the way I want or whether I have to vote tactically to see off any potential tory threat. My guess is that sans Ruth Davidson the mask is off the tories in Scotland and they can go back to being nowhere.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Hell Host
    The LibDems absolutely won't go for a coalition with anyone, until they get a whiff of the ministerial car-leather. At which point, they'll roll on their backs like they did before - preferably with Johnson tickling their tummies.
  • Labour has to go for the Tories failures on the economy (where is that budget deficit reduction?) and increasing poverty and mortality due to Universal Credit and PIPs. Those schemes really get me riled. Brexit is stupid but they are evil.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    Could the Greens do well out of the young and extinction rebellion votes? No punit seems to be mentioning this factor.
  • sionisais wrote: »
    Labour has to go for the Tories failures on the economy (where is that budget deficit reduction?) and increasing poverty and mortality due to Universal Credit and PIPs. Those schemes really get me riled. Brexit is stupid but they are evil.

    I don't think anyone gives a toss about the deficit do they? Poverty and mortality, certainly. Of course I understand that the Tories linked austerity to deficit reduction (and that it was unnecessary and wrong to conflate them), but the deficit itself isn't really a thing for most people in my experience. It's too abstract.
  • Boogie wrote: »
    Could the Greens do well out of the young and extinction rebellion votes? No punit seems to be mentioning this factor.

    Only if those voters (a) don't look at Labour's environmental policies and (b) don't give a shit about keeping the tories out. It's one thing to vote to send a message in an ordinary general election, I've done it enough times myself before Corbyn was Labour leader, but Brexit is the pile of mammoth dung in the room. It's not time to bicker about who has the better plan for dealing with fixing the roof, it's time to grab a shovel.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    edited October 30
    sionisais wrote: »
    Labour has to go for the Tories failures on the economy (where is that budget deficit reduction?) and increasing poverty and mortality due to Universal Credit and PIPs. Those schemes really get me riled. Brexit is stupid but they are evil.

    I don't think anyone gives a toss about the deficit do they? Poverty and mortality, certainly. Of course I understand that the Tories linked austerity to deficit reduction (and that it was unnecessary and wrong to conflate them), but the deficit itself isn't really a thing for most people in my experience. It's too abstract.

    The PtB have spent much time and spilt much ink in the tabloids ensuring that everyone hurt by the Tories' cuts has someone to despise sufficiently to vote for having them screwed even while complaining that they are also being screwed.

    You must know the old illustration; Tory doner, unemployed bloke, woman on 0 hours contract, Daily Mail reporter and asylum seeker sitting around the table for tea and biscuits; Tory doner takes half the biscuits and the Daily Mail reporter leans over to the woman on the 0-hours contract, points to the unemployed man and the asylum seeker and says "watch those guys! They're after your biscuits!"
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited October 30
    Boogie wrote: »
    Could the Greens do well out of the young and extinction rebellion votes? No punit seems to be mentioning this factor.

    Hopefully, but the Greens are probably spread too thinly to make much of a difference - unless they deliberately stand back from unsafe Tory seats, and encourage their supporters in those places to vote Labour...

  • sionisais wrote: »
    Labour has to go for the Tories failures on the economy (where is that budget deficit reduction?) and increasing poverty and mortality due to Universal Credit and PIPs. Those schemes really get me riled. Brexit is stupid but they are evil.

    I don't think anyone gives a toss about the deficit do they? Poverty and mortality, certainly. Of course I understand that the Tories linked austerity to deficit reduction (and that it was unnecessary and wrong to conflate them), but the deficit itself isn't really a thing for most people in my experience. It's too abstract.

    OK, shine the light on poverty and mortality first, but link the "Austerity Policies" like Universal Credit, PIPs and reduced funding for the NHS straight back to the deficit reduction that George Osborne said was essential. When it was apparent that the deficit wasn't being reduced he pushed for even greater public expenditure cuts except for "shiny kit" like HS2, the aircraft carriers (for which there will be few if any aircraft) and Trident replacement, from which the Tories friends in business will profit.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    edited October 30
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    The LibDems absolutely won't go for a coalition with anyone, until they get a whiff of the ministerial car-leather. At which point, they'll roll on their backs like they did before - preferably with Johnson tickling their tummies.

    ... their price will be a referendum on Johnson's deal, which they'll then lose. Which will provide a very appropriate ending to a decade that started off with the LDs rolling over for Cameron.
  • Labour have to hammer on the NHS. I used to get a GP appointment the next day, (non-emergency), now it's 3 weeks. WTF.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    Labour have to hammer on the NHS. I used to get a GP appointment the next day, (non-emergency), now it's 3 weeks. WTF.

    Narrative from the nasty side is it's immigrants to blame. They need to specifically address that.
  • On Grenfell, I wonder if anyone will bring up Boris closing 10 fire stations as London mayor?
  • On Grenfell, I wonder if anyone will bring up Boris closing 10 fire stations as London mayor?

    Maybe, he's doing a long statement on it now in the commons. I'm sure it will come up in the responses.
  • Forgive me, but:
    -Has there actually been any actual governing and is the election all really Brexit dominated? Any debate, laws or bills passed about anything else? and how is the country doing otherwise? The news about you I hear is either Brexit or a disaster: currently immigration sneaking people dying in a reefer van, poor construction values and wrong directions re a high-rise residential tower which killed many people.
    -are things actually okay over there?
  • Forgive me, but:
    -Has there actually been any actual governing and is the election all really Brexit dominated? Any debate, laws or bills passed about anything else? and how is the country doing otherwise? The news about you I hear is either Brexit or a disaster: currently immigration sneaking people dying in a reefer van, poor construction values and wrong directions re a high-rise residential tower which killed many people.
    -are things actually okay over there?

    No and Yes. Not that I can remember. Shit.
    And No, things are a pile of poop.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    The Tories were busy buggering poor people until mid 2018 when making a pigs' ear of Brexit took over.
  • KarlLB wrote: »
    Labour have to hammer on the NHS. I used to get a GP appointment the next day, (non-emergency), now it's 3 weeks. WTF.

    Narrative from the nasty side is it's immigrants to blame. They need to specifically address that.

    Well, London has been 50% non-white/foreign for a long time, so I can't believe GPs are being suddenly overwhelmed by immigrants. Also, of course local hospitals have a lot of foreign staff.
  • Forgive me, but:
    -Has there actually been any actual governing and is the election all really Brexit dominated? Any debate, laws or bills passed about anything else? and how is the country doing otherwise? The news about you I hear is either Brexit or a disaster: currently immigration sneaking people dying in a reefer van, poor construction values and wrong directions re a high-rise residential tower which killed many people.
    -are things actually okay over there?

    Nope. The tories have been in power for almost a decade so the physical and social fabric of the country has been left to deteriorate (when not actively dismantled) and is close to collapse. All the little things that helped people who were ill or in poverty at least bump along - day centres, Surestart, libararies, youth services, social services, all gone or cut to the point of invisibility. Schools and police are left picking up the pieces and are showing the strain. All the while the supposed justification for all this, public sector debt, is at a record high and the budget deficit is growing again. We're looking at the worst self-inflicted economic disaster the country, perhaps the world, has ever seen and executing it in the teeth of a global economic slowdown. We need to get the tories out of power or the only hope for those of us on the Scottish side of the border to get the hell out and start setting up refugee reception centres outside Carlisle to cope with the aftermath.
  • Of course, with police the Tories are doing their usual stunt, first cutting them, then announcing an increase. Yebbut, lets get Brexit done.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    KarlLB wrote: »
    Labour have to hammer on the NHS. I used to get a GP appointment the next day, (non-emergency), now it's 3 weeks. WTF.

    Narrative from the nasty side is it's immigrants to blame. They need to specifically address that.

    Well, London has been 50% non-white/foreign for a long time, so I can't believe GPs are being suddenly overwhelmed by immigrants. Also, of course local hospitals have a lot of foreign staff.

    You can't. Many do because they're told to.
  • Forgive me, but:
    -Has there actually been any actual governing and is the election all really Brexit dominated? Any debate, laws or bills passed about anything else? and how is the country doing otherwise? The news about you I hear is either Brexit or a disaster: currently immigration sneaking people dying in a reefer van, poor construction values and wrong directions re a high-rise residential tower which killed many people.
    -are things actually okay over there?

    Nope. The tories have been in power for almost a decade so the physical and social fabric of the country has been left to deteriorate (when not actively dismantled) and is close to collapse. All the little things that helped people who were ill or in poverty at least bump along - day centres, Surestart, libararies, youth services, social services, all gone or cut to the point of invisibility. Schools and police are left picking up the pieces and are showing the strain. All the while the supposed justification for all this, public sector debt, is at a record high and the budget deficit is growing again. We're looking at the worst self-inflicted economic disaster the country, perhaps the world, has ever seen and executing it in the teeth of a global economic slowdown. We need to get the tories out of power or the only hope for those of us on the Scottish side of the border to get the hell out and start setting up refugee reception centres outside Carlisle to cope with the aftermath.

    I would add that some, at least, of the pieces are being picked up by churches, mosques, various assorted faiths, and other charities (which may, or may not, be faith-based). The fact that most of these agencies are strapped for cash/people is of no concern to the Selfservatives, of course.

    I hope that the General Election will result in the disappearance off the face of the earth of at least some of the wretched so-called 'politicians', and a chance for others, with more integrity, to take over. OK, they may make a bit of a mess, too, but surely that's better than having to put up with the present scumbags...

  • SipechSipech Shipmate
    I now live in blue-ribbon-on-a-pig country, so it looks like my tactical vote will have to go to Labour, though it's unlikely to oust the pro-Brexit Johnson loyalist who has no intention of giving up her seat.

    My own prediction is that the Conservatives will lose a few seats but because the SNP will hold theirs against Labour, the Tories will continue to be the largest party in the Commons but with no overall majority. The SNP and Lib Dems will refuse to join a coalition with Labour (the SNP will demand another separatist referendum, the Lib Dems will want a 2nd referendum on Brexit, both with refuse to make Corbyn PM). So we'll get to Christmas with the Conservatives grimly holding on but no one else willing to get their arses in gear and give the Tories the boot they so richly deserve.

    For clarity, my reasoning for thinking that the Conservatives will lose seats will not be a big swing to Labour, but because the right wing support will be diluted by the Brexit Party. If, however, the Conservatives do a Faustian pact with the Brexit Party, then that dilution may be averted or ameliorated, which would be bad news for the rest of us.
  • I live in a Tory marginal, Labour second. The obvious vote is for Labour; voting Lib Dem is a vote for Boris. I would vote LD if they were second.
  • We are red rosette on a donkey territory if you ignore our Change-defecting MP, in a very socially and ethnically diverse area. I plan to vote Lib Dem because they are closest to my views and hopefully they might mount a decent challenge.
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    edited October 30
    Do you think there will be a lot of tactical voting or is this a Ship thing?

    ETA -

    Right on cue.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited October 30
    dup
  • I didn't realize that some people refuse to vote tactically, I mean the anti-Tory vote. I don't like Swinson but I would vote LD to keep the Tory out.
  • Doc Tor wrote: »
    The LibDems absolutely won't go for a coalition with anyone ....
    Well they got unfairly treated after last time by many as a result of trying to move us towards more democratic government where parties share power and one party doesn't get complete power to force their policies through with a mandate from a minority of the electorate. Unfortunately Brits aren't keen to see power shared or forgive good intentions - eg when the parties are very unequal and the smaller one in parliament gets the blame when they can't stop the bigger party in every policy area.
    ... their price will be a referendum on Johnson's deal ...

    That could work.


  • Doc TorDoc Tor Hell Host
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    The LibDems absolutely won't go for a coalition with anyone ....
    Well they got unfairly treated after last time by many as a result of trying to move us towards more democratic government where parties share power and one party doesn't get complete power to force their policies through with a mandate from a minority of the electorate.

    They sold their birthright for a mess of pottage. No, I don't think they were unfairly treated for propping up a Tory government - I think their ordinary supporters realised the centre-left party they thought they'd voted for was in fact a centre-right party, and deserted them accordingly.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited October 30
    Still unfair. My recollection is that Tories had more MPs (so it was a democratic choice) and Labour were not so willing to cooperate. I would have very much preferred a Labour-LibDem coalition but at least they moderated Tory nastiness in some areas. Would you rather they hadn't done so?

    Anyway this thread is about the forthcoming election, not past ones.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Hell Host
    Anyway this thread is about the forthcoming election, not past ones.

    Absolutely. Which is why looking at a party's past record is important, rather than what they say now. Swinson leads a centre-right party that's again trying to convince a whole bunch of centre-left people to vote for it.
  • Still unfair. My recollection is that Tories had more MPs (so it was a democratic choice) and Labour were not so willing to cooperate. I would have very much preferred a Labour-LibDem coalition but at least they moderated Tory nastiness in some areas. Would you rather they hadn't done so?

    Anyway this thread is about the forthcoming election, not past ones.

    Had they forced Cameron to run a minority government they could have prevented tory nastiness in every area. As it is they enabled it across the board and there seems little sign they were effective in moderating anything very much. In fact it may well be that their willingness to sell out in return for photo-ops and ministerial cars prompted Cameron to put the promise of a referendum on EU membership in the tory manifesto, trusting that he could give it up as a grand gesture to renew the coalition while keeping all the stuff he actually cared about. I'd still vote lib dem if they had the best chance of stopping the tories, but that Churchill's "favourable reference for the devil" territory.
  • In fact it may well be that their willingness to sell out in return for photo-ops and ministerial cars prompted Cameron to put the promise of a referendum on EU membership in the tory manifesto

    You can chose what weight you want to put on it, but in his biography Cameron claims that Osborne offered Clegg a pass on supporting fees - realising how toxic it would be to his base - Clegg declined the offer thinking that it was necessary to show support for austerity.
  • BlahblahBlahblah Shipmate
    Unfortunately I think the challenge is going to be persuading people that a vote for the Tories or Brexit is a vote against their own interests.

    It seems to me that's the major mental block that Labour and the other parties have to get over. Because it looks like there is a fairly significant percentage of people who seem to believe that "getting Brexit done" is more important than the NHS, austerity and their own jobs and prosperity.

    In a rational universe, I really believe that there would only be a tiny number of people for whom the Tories and the far-right have any policies that would benefit them.

  • Doc Tor wrote: »
    The LibDems absolutely won't go for a coalition with anyone, until they get a whiff of the ministerial car-leather. At which point, they'll roll on their backs like they did before - preferably with Johnson tickling their tummies.

    ... their price will be a referendum on Johnson's deal, which they'll then lose. Which will provide a very appropriate ending to a decade that started off with the LDs rolling over for Cameron.
    I can't imagine any circumstance in which the LibDems, having taken a stand on revoking A50 without even going to the people in a referendum, would form a coalition with the Tories who created the whole mess in the first place - and especially with Johnson whose intent is to make a bad situation worse by going for a hard Brexit or even no deal, and no one will trust to keep up his side of a coalition anyway. The current Tory leadership would never countenance a referendum. If they did, then that would be the end of the LibDems as an even remotely serious political force.

    It wouldn't surprise me if they went into coalition with Labour, a position of holding a referendum would be acceptable to them I'd expect (until quite recently that was their position). If the next government is to be dominated by Brexit then the anti-Brexit LibDems might find a luke-warm Brexitish Labour Party with a commitment to a referendum including Remain acceptable.

    Ideally, of course, the LibDems are looking to win enough seats that they can form a government and bring in others as necessary - PC and SNP should be a significant number of MPs who they could more easily work with on cancelling Brexit. Maybe that's just wild dreams, but at this point (ie: until the votes get counted) they need to campaign as though it's possible.


  • jay_emmjay_emm Shipmate
    edited October 30
    Boogie wrote: »
    Do you think there will be a lot of tactical voting or is this a Ship thing?

    ETA -

    Right on cue.

    Of the four groups Left-Remain, Right-Remain, Left-Leave, Right-Leave
    If either are locally split, they will straight up lose compared to a unified group
    If only one group votes (consistently) tactically, the side they vote for will win

    In practice Left-leave and Right-remain are about half the size of the other groups and have no natural home. They will have to vote tactically.
    If Johnson gets them both he wins. If Corbyn gets them both he wins. If Corbyn gets LL and Swinson gets RR then things are interesting in a potentially fun way. If Johnson net gets one group and Corbyn the other we stay as we are. If Johnson net gets one and the other is split, things get interesting in a probably unfun way (depending on locations)

    I could see any of them happening.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Shipmate
    edited October 30
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    The LibDems absolutely won't go for a coalition with anyone, until they get a whiff of the ministerial car-leather. At which point, they'll roll on their backs like they did before - preferably with Johnson tickling their tummies.

    ... their price will be a referendum on Johnson's deal, which they'll then lose. Which will provide a very appropriate ending to a decade that started off with the LDs rolling over for Cameron.
    I can't imagine any circumstance in which the LibDems, having taken a stand on revoking A50 without even going to the people in a referendum, would form a coalition with the Tories who created the whole mess in the first place

    Maybe they'll do it for another 5p on plastic bags.
  • Gee DGee D Shipmate


    So he thinks that if they end up as a minority government who don't get their way, we can have ANOTHER election. Ah well, vote early, vote often...

    Vote early, vote often and vote for the dead.
  • Furtive GanderFurtive Gander Shipmate
    edited October 30
    Still unfair. My recollection is that Tories had more MPs (so it was a democratic choice) and Labour were not so willing to cooperate. I would have very much preferred a Labour-LibDem coalition but at least they moderated Tory nastiness in some areas. Would you rather they hadn't done so?

    Anyway this thread is about the forthcoming election, not past ones.

    Had they forced Cameron to run a minority government they could have prevented tory nastiness in every area.

    D'you know, that seems so obvious to me now but not at the time. It felt like a majority government was somehow necessary and keeping the Tories in check to some extent seemed noble (if risky) while getting some of their own priorities too; big mistake with hindsight. Was it clear to everyone else but me at the time, or not? (Lesson: never trust an f*ing Tory. )
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    Anyway this thread is about the forthcoming election, not past ones.

    Absolutely. Which is why looking at a party's past record is important, rather than what they say now.

    True, fair enough.
    Swinson leads a centre-right party that's again trying to convince a whole bunch of centre-left people to vote for it.

    Where do you get that idea? In what sense are LibDem policies anything like Tory ones?

  • Swinson leads a centre-right party that's again trying to convince a whole bunch of centre-left people to vote for it.

    Where do you get that idea? In what sense are LibDem policies anything like Tory ones?

    The Orange Book and the circumstances around it merit study.

  • Whether the Lib Dems are centre or centre-right depends to an extent on where one places the centre. Certainly in the media the moves over the last couple of decades have been to shift that centre position towards the right. It's one of the reasons why they feel justified in calling someone like Jeremy Corbyn an extreme leftwing politician - he's not that far from the majority of Labour politicians a few decades ago, but the rest of society has lurched to the right.
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