The tidal wave begins

We have not looked much at off elections, but in Kentucky, one of the reddest states in the Union just elected a socialist democrat governor. Next up is Mitch McConnell. We might just see the beginnings of a national tidal wave.

Comments

  • RossweisseRossweisse Shipmate, Hell Host
    Sounds good to me!
  • Maybe, and I’d love for it to be the case, but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet.

    It’s worth remembering that Bevins (the incumbent Republican Governor of Kentucky) has had the lowest approval ratings of any governor in the country—32% (with 56% disapproving) in July, so a lower approval rating than Trump. And even with that, Beshear leads by less than 0.5%, and he appears to have only won with a plurality of the vote, not a majority.

    But that said, neither Trump nor McConnell will be happy about this result.

  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    And Virginia just became a blue state. The Democrats gained at least five seats in the House of Delegates and 2 in the state Senate. That means they will control the congressional redistricting.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    We have not looked much at off elections, but in Kentucky, one of the reddest states in the Union just elected a socialist democrat governor. Next up is Mitch McConnell. We might just see the beginnings of a national tidal wave.

    Every single down-ticket race on the Kentucky ballot went handily to the Republican candidate. There may well be a blue wave coming, but we aren't part of it. The gubernatorial election was about how much the incumbent governor was hated after he insulted our teachers and state employees, including his own lieutenant governor, in the public press. And you notice the results are still awfully close - he lost by fewer than 10,000 votes.

    As long as Republicans keep smashing the abortion button they'll do well here. The evangelical/Catholic alliance is unbeatable. I saw a man out in front of our local Kroger with a hand-written posterboard yesterday - "VOTE BEVIN TO SAVE THE BABIES".
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    I also understand people did not like it when Bevins tried to cut 30,000 people off the Medicaid rolls. It is striking that the first thing Beshear said when he declared himself the winner that he believed in health care is the right of everyone.

    This may just be the biggest campaign slogan for the Democrats this next year: health care is the right of everyone.

    That may even play well in my neighboring state of Idaho where voters last year overwhelmingly passed an initiative to expand Medicaid.
  • RuthRuth Admin Emeritus
    I read something on Twitter about the Cincinnati suburbs turning blue, but I can't find any actual news about it.
  • Ruth wrote: »
    I read something on Twitter about the Cincinnati suburbs turning blue, but I can't find any actual news about it.

    We did! That article is probably paywalled, I have access to it as a Cincinnati Enquirer subscriber, so here's the relevant paragraph:
    Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear won Kenton County in the gubernatorial race by the slimmest margin. Beshear also won Campbell County with about 52% of the vote.
    Beshear turned Kenton County blue with 49.5% percent of the vote to Gov. Matt Bevin's 48.4% of the vote.

    We had way higher turnout statewide than anybody was expecting, about 145% of the expected numbers - I don't think it's likely that many existing voters had a change of heart, so much that as a bunch of people came out to vote against Bevin who don't usually vote in off years.
  • Is Beshear really a socialist or is that just what the Republicans were calling him?
  • Things went pretty well where I live- Dems flipped several of the counties around Philadelphia, including one that had been GOP controlled since the civil war.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Is Beshear really a socialist or is that just what the Republicans were calling him?

    He did say health care is a basic right--that is a democratic socialist maxim over here. Sanders and Warren have both been pushing it more than the others.
  • OhherOhher Shipmate
    Can she send out inspectors to find violations (there must be some, it's a Trump property) and shut it down?
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    We have not looked much at off elections, but in Kentucky, one of the reddest states in the Union just elected a socialist democrat governor. Next up is Mitch McConnell. We might just see the beginnings of a national tidal wave.

    Every single down-ticket race on the Kentucky ballot went handily to the Republican candidate. There may well be a blue wave coming, but we aren't part of it. The gubernatorial election was about how much the incumbent governor was hated after he insulted our teachers and state employees, including his own lieutenant governor, in the public press. And you notice the results are still awfully close - he lost by fewer than 10,000 votes.

    As long as Republicans keep smashing the abortion button they'll do well here. The evangelical/Catholic alliance is unbeatable. I saw a man out in front of our local Kroger with a hand-written posterboard yesterday - "VOTE BEVIN TO SAVE THE BABIES".

    Let's hope your new governor is able to win some folks over by governing well.
  • This is way down-ticket but in a neighboring town there had been a fundamentalist group that had been trying to take over the city council and make the city "Christian." They had put up three of their candidates who were opposed by three women who identified themselves as progressive. The three women were elected by a landslide.
  • What state do you live in Gramps? I've forgotten.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Matt Bevin has finally conceded the governor's race. He did it with all the courtesy and grace you'd expect from America's least popular (lame duck) governor:
    Despite conceding, Bevin reiterated his claim Thursday that thousands of absentee ballots were improperly counted, once again without presenting any evidence of his claims.

    “These too would not change the outcome,” Bevin said. “It would change it by some thousands, but instead of it being now some thousands, it would be 1,000 or some hundreds but either way it would be the same end result.”

    Bevin also took a swipe at the election process at the end of his remarks, saying Secretary of State-elect Michael Adams, a Republican, will have to make the process more transparent.

    “There is not any real sense of transparency for how the voting process works,” Bevin said. “What you are going to see is that we do not have checks and balances.”

    Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes said at no point since the election has Bevin contacted her office with allegations of voter fraud or election irregularities, so she has no idea what problems he’s referring to in his public statements. Grimes said she’s confident in the roughly 15,000 precinct workers from both parties who ran the election.

    That's the kind of thing that made Bevin lose an election in a deep red state that elected Republicans to every other statewide office on the ballot.
  • How ironic, a Republican calling for election checks and balances and transparency, given that the GOP has been fighting against just those things for twenty or more years.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    mousethief wrote: »
    How ironic, a Republican calling for election checks and balances and transparency, given that the GOP has been fighting against just those things for twenty or more years.

    Not ironic. In Republican code "election checks and balances" means checking voters for forms of ID less likely to be held by people who don't vote Republican* and "transparency" means things like gerrymandering, paper-free balloting, and restricting early voting. Republicans have been going on about rigged elections for quite some time, with the understanding that any election where a Republican loses is by definition "rigged".


    * Example: a concealed-carry gun permit is okay for voter identification but a state-issued student ID is not.
  • Lamb ChoppedLamb Chopped Shipmate
    edited November 14
    What is a state-issued student ID? In every state I've been in, IDs are issued by the school. Even if the school is Something-something-State, that does not make its ID card a state document.

    Or were you thinking of the garden variety non-driver state ID? That is not specific to students.
  • Have y'all looked at the official recanvass figures yet? They found a difference of... one vote. (That's one out of 1.43 million.)

    It was a previously uncounted write-in vote in Casey County for Blackii Effing Whyte (his real name!) of Berea, who is a schoolteacher but frankly does not look it.

    Blackii's total is updated to 46 votes throughout the commonwealth. Bevin's and Beshear's totals remained the same.
  • surely if there is a photo on it and it isn't issued by a degree factory like Trump University, it should be OK to tick your name off against an electoral roll.
  • I'm not a fan of racially motivated voters' ID schemes at all, nor do I think that voting fraud (via individuals showing up under false pretenses) is even barely a thing. I'm only saying that a university ID, produced by a student worker unsupervised in an unguarded place on a machine with minimal security, is useful for barely more than borrowing library books and getting student discounts at the movies. I doubt it rises to tge level of trustworthiness that gets you into bars. And I currently possess one, so I know whereof I speak.
  • Lamb Chopped, at my school all IDs - faculty, staff, and student - are issued by staff and are linked not just to the library but also campus services like meal plans, books and supplies, printing and copying, and building secure access. They're very secure, very valuable, and impossible to fake. We have around 50,000 graduate and undergraduate students and 12,000 faculty and staff so student workers won't cut it.

    There's a big difference between IDs issued by Podunk Flats Community College and e.g. the University of California.
  • Simon Toad wrote: »
    What state do you live in Gramps? I've forgotten.

    Washington State. The neighboring town I was speaking of is Moscow, Idaho. Idaho in and off itself is very red except for a few pockets of blue. There had been a radical fundamentalist takeover of the city government there over the past ten years. Now all those council members have been swept from power.
  • Brilliant stuff!
  • Lamb Chopped, at my school all IDs - faculty, staff, and student - are issued by staff and are linked not just to the library but also campus services like meal plans, books and supplies, printing and copying, and building secure access. They're very secure, very valuable, and impossible to fake. We have around 50,000 graduate and undergraduate students and 12,000 faculty and staff so student workers won't cut it.

    There's a big difference between IDs issued by Podunk Flats Community College and e.g. the University of California.

    Though, for context, Elections Canada treats all student ID the same way - valid as one of two pieces of ID but insufficient in itself:

    https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&document=index&lang=e#list



  • I used to work with a population of people that did not have state-issued ID's because, well, they were homeless. In order to get a state ID one had to have proof of residency which would include something like a utility bill in the person's name sent to a street address. Hard to have when you are out on the street. Likewise, if all the bills were going to someone else (parent, spouse, landlord) it is hard to prove residency.

    I think it was in the Dakotas that the state (which one, I cannot remember) passed a bill requiring everyone to have a state ID with a physical address on it. But this put the Native Americans in a bind since most of their members live in remote parts of the reservations that had no street address so they were scrambling to create new addresses for their members to comply with the new state law.

    While Native American tribes are technically sovereign nations their members are also citizens of the United States and residents of individual states, so there are times when the tribal governments have to comply with federal and state law.

    Likewise, elderly individuals who no longer drive and have let their licenses expire. Requiring state-issued IDs for them is like changing the goalposts at the proverbial end of the game.

    There are similar problems for other minority groups.

    It is one reason why the first thing refugee resettlement programs do is get the refugee into a house or apartment and have them sign up to pay their own utility bills and to establish American recognized credit.
  • What is a state-issued student ID? In every state I've been in, IDs are issued by the school. Even if the school is Something-something-State, that does not make its ID card a state document.
    Actually, yes it does—or at least it might. State universities are state government agencies, so university-issued IDs might well be considered government-issued IDs.

    FWIW, where l live, the new photo ID law for voting (don’t get me started) includes public and private college/university student IDs as well as community college IDs, if the IDs meet certain requirements. It’s up to the school in question to decide whether to try and meet those requirements and apply to the State Board of Elections for approval of their student IDs.

  • Lamb ChoppedLamb Chopped Shipmate
    edited November 16
    My dudes, I was offering a single counter-example to the proposition that student IDs are reliable--not stating that ALL student IDs are rinky-dink. The ones I have had to do with are quite simply nonsecure. Yours may be far better. But it is ridiculous to cast scorn on some nameless official who refuses to accept local school ID as secure. He or she may be quite correct for the area.
  • rinky-dink :lol:
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