Last Secretary Standing

CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
edited March 13 in The Circus
The current U.S. Presidential administration has been noted for its chaos and high rate of turnover. With today's announcement that Rex Tillerson will be departing as Secretary of State it might be useful to review Trump's cabinet and who is left from the original appointees. The list below is in order of presidential succession.
  1. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
  2. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin
  3. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis
  4. Attorney General Jeff Sessions
  5. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
  6. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue
  7. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross
  8. Secretary of Labor Alex Acosta
  9. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price
  10. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson
  11. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao*
  12. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry
  13. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos
  14. Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
  15. Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly

So who's next and who's going to be last? Name your predictions. Whenever a Trump cabinet secretary departs whoever had that secretary picked as "next" gets a number of points equal to the number of remaining original cabinet secretaries. For example, whoever correctly identifies the next cabinet secretary to depart will earn 11 points, because there will be 11 original secretaries remaining after the next departure. The next correct pick after that is worth 10 points, and so on. At every departure a player gets to specify a new "next" prediction, even if they were wrong and the secretary they picked is still in the cabinet. Successfully predicting the last secretary standing (a prediction you don't get to change once you've made it) is worth 12 points. No points will be awarded for any cabinet secretaries still in place when Trump leaves office, however that occurs.

Anyone can join the game at any time, though if you wait until after the next secretary leaves you've given up a chance a 11 points.

The floor is now open for predictions. Once made, your prediction for "next secretary to go" stands until the next secretary leave office, regardless of whether the departure was your pick. Your prediction for "last secretary standing" can never be changed, so make it a good one.

My predictions:
Next To Go: Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
Last Secretary Standing: Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke


*Although the Secretary of Transportation falls between the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and the Secretary of Energy in the line of Presidential succession, Elaine Chao is ineligible to succeed to the presidency because she was born in Taiwan.
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Comments

  • Next to go: Betsy DeVos (please...)
    Last Man Standing: Rick Perry
  • BoogieBoogie Shipmate
    Next to go: Rick Perry
    Last Man Standing: Betsy DeVos

    Because there is nothing logical about this administration.
  • LeRocLeRoc Shipmate
    These are just the Secretaries. Quite a number of White House staff has also left.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    LeRoc wrote: »
    These are just the Secretaries. Quite a number of White House staff has also left.

    Yeah, but if we open up the contest that far the safe bet for "Next To Go" would always be White House Communications Director.
  • Shouldn't this be called Designated Survivor?

    In which universe Ben Carson will be the last to go, so I nominate him for that slot.

    And Mattis as next to go.

  • Next to go: Jeff Sessions

    Last standing: Jim Mattis
  • Golden KeyGolden Key Shipmate
    We just need to get T to fire himself.
  • Wet KipperWet Kipper Shipmate
    Next to go: Ryan Zinke

    Last standing: Elaine Chao
  • jedijudyjedijudy Heaven Host
    Next to go: Jim Mattis.

    Last to go: Betsy De Vos...because she's as delusional as the POTUS.
  • LeafLeaf Shipmate
    Next to go: Wilbur Ross, because he won't want to deal with the bullshit caused by the new tariffs, and he's rich enough that he doesn't have to stick around.

    Last to go: Alex Acosta, because has nothing to gain by leaving. Unless he is found in a hotel room etc., he will remain in the swamp.
  • Leaf wrote: »
    Next to go: Wilbur Ross, because he won't want to deal with the bullshit caused by the new tariffs, and he's rich enough that he doesn't have to stick around.

    Last to go: Alex Acosta, because has nothing to gain by leaving. Unless he is found in a hotel room etc., he will remain in the swamp.

    Like Trump is gonna start getting all dainty about people being caught in hotel rooms with inappropriate someones. As long as said person is of the approved gender, our boy can expect a big high five from the boss. If Trump is somehow ousted and Pence gets the head office, this particular rule (much more so than most others) may vary.
  • LeafLeaf Shipmate
    Leaf wrote: »
    Next to go: Wilbur Ross, because he won't want to deal with the bullshit caused by the new tariffs, and he's rich enough that he doesn't have to stick around.

    Last to go: Alex Acosta, because has nothing to gain by leaving. Unless he is found in a hotel room etc., he will remain in the swamp.

    Like Trump is gonna start getting all dainty about people being caught in hotel rooms with inappropriate someones. As long as said person is of the approved gender, our boy can expect a big high five from the boss. If Trump is somehow ousted and Pence gets the head office, this particular rule (much more so than most others) may vary.

    Oh I completely agree. The "etc" was to cover the rest of the saying: "with a dead hooker or a live boy." Trump has no qualms about inappropriate, but a police investigation of murder, or a suspicion of Teh Gayness, would be problematic enough even for Trump.

  • HedgehogHedgehog Shipmate
    Next to go: David Shulkin, because he has stated that he has no intention of resigning (the Universal Indicator that he is about to resign).

    Last to go: Sonny Perdue. Just because.
  • Well McMaster hasn't gone yet, so there's still time for Jeff Sessions to beat him.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Purgatory Host, Dead Horses Host
    Next to go: Shulkin
    Last to go: Mattis. The last adult in the room will turn the lights out.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 16
    Well McMaster hasn't gone yet, so there's still time for Jeff Sessions to beat him.

    Despite the fact that it's a prominent appointed position, National Security Advisor is not a cabinet position so McMaster isn't included in this contest.
  • I wonder if we could get FoxAndFriends to cover our litte thread here? :naughty:
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 16
    Eutychus wrote: »
    I wonder if we could get FoxAndFriends to cover our litte thread here? :naughty:

    Conflict of interest. Fox seems to be where Trump gets a lot of his appointees these days. Not that such ethical considerations would likely be made at Fox.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 16
    It should also be remembered that, even if NSA was a cabinet position, H. R. McMaster is not Trump's original National Security Advisor. That honor went to Michael Flynn (remember him?) who lasted 24 days in the role. (The average tenure for NSA in previous administrations is 2.6 years.)
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    Conflict of interest.
    That was kind of the point? I thought that was more an ethos to be aspired to these days, rather than something to be avoided...

  • I can't change my fantasy prediction, but if the conspiracy theorists are right, @Flatulent Duck is on the money. Trump fires Sessions for firing McCabe, installs Pruitt (already confirmed) as acting AG, Pruitt fires Mueller...
  • MaryLouiseMaryLouise Shipmate
    Wondering who else (like McCabe) might be coming up for retirement and offering Trump a chance to fire him with the finish line in sight?
  • Eutychus wrote: »
    if the conspiracy theorists are right
    This conspiracy theorist thinks that Sessions fired McCabe in order not to be fired himself, and so keep a new AG away from the Mueller probe. McCabe will sue the pants off DoJ, so he’ll get his pension anyway. And he’ll make more than a public service pension from a book deal. Meanwhile, Trump has to find a non-McCabe excuse to fire Sessions, so Mueller’s digging is safe for a while. And my forecast doesn’t look so strong. (I thought that Sessions wouldn’t fire McCabe, so he - Sessions - would be fired instead).
  • AristonAriston Circus Host
    Next to go: Shulkin.
    Last standing: Between Acosta and Chao, going with Chao.

    The scuttlebutt is leaning towards Shulkin getting forced out in the near future. See him getting run out before Sessions. Perry, Zinke, Perdue, possibly Ross, and (not on this list, because it's an executive, not cabinet, agency) Pruitt are probably safe as figures, but may get moved elsewhere—possibly other positions, possibly into the White House as political figures (OMB, etc), possibly into the Congress, state politics, or judiciary. Mattis isn't going anywhere—currently too popular with the establishment to get run out, not so popular as to run for higher office or make it into the political circuits. DeVos and Carson are incompetent boobs, so they're useful where they're put. And aren't moving up.

    That leaves the two career figures—Chao and Acosta, whom nobody much hears about. Neither would be out of place in an ordinary Republican administration. Acosta's a distinct second choice, after the former CEO 45 first picked got involved in a few too many scandals for even the Senate to approve. However, Chao gets the nod as a survivor of Dubya's cabinet, where she was Secretary of Labor. She's survived one chaotic administration, she'll make it through this one. Also, Acosta gets docked survivor points for having some of his department's actions (the proposed tip credit rule that would let employers keep employee tips in excess of the minimum wage) draw Congressional disapproval; if anyone's paying attention to you, it's a Bad Sign.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 23
    Ariston wrote: »
    That leaves the two career figures—Chao and Acosta, whom nobody much hears about. Neither would be out of place in an ordinary Republican administration. Acosta's a distinct second choice, after the former CEO 45 first picked got involved in a few too many scandals for even the Senate to approve. However, Chao gets the nod as a survivor of Dubya's cabinet, where she was Secretary of Labor. She's survived one chaotic administration, she'll make it through this one.

    It should be noted that Elaine Chao is also Mrs. Mitch McConnell. Whether this provides an extra degree of protection or an extra factor of liability for retaining her cabinet post is in the judgment of the viewer.
  • GwaiGwai Purgatory Host
    Next to go: Ben Carson
    Last to go: Jeff Sessions.
  • aliehsaliehs Shipmate
    One can not escape the inevitable fact that the last survivor will be Trump himself .And all his family.
    And the Americans accuse everyone else of nepotism!
  • Foaming DraughtFoaming Draught Shipmate
    edited March 28
    I've lost my bet. Shulkin is out, replaced by the Navy medic who fibbed about Trump's weight and cognitive capacity. And it's another firing by Tweet.
  • HedgehogHedgehog Shipmate
    Woo hoo! Eleven points for me! My new prediction for:

    Next to go: Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis (because he won't be able to work with known hot-head John Bolton).
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    I'm going to go for the Saturday Night Massacre option: Jeff Sessions
    Last Secretary Standing: Ben Carson. Trump likes picking on people, and Carson is a great target.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 29
    So on to the next round!

    Everybody gets to pick a new "Next To Go". If you picked wrong and don't post something to change your "Next To Go" your previous prediction will stand. If you picked right and don't choose someone new it counts as not having a pick (worth 0 points). The deadline to make a new selection is whenever the next (original) cabinet secretary leaves.

    The current scoreboard:
    @Ariston 11
    @Barnabas62 11
    @Crœsos 11
    @Hedgehog 11

    If you have points, the clock is ticking for your next pick. Here's the revised list, for reference:
    1. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
    2. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin
    3. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis
    4. Attorney General Jeff Sessions
    5. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke
    6. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue
    7. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross
    8. Secretary of Labor Alex Acosta
    9. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price
    10. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson
    11. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao
    12. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry
    13. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos
    14. Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin
    15. Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly

    My prediction for Next To Go is Ben Carson.
  • My revised forecast is Scott Pruitt next out, Elaine Chao (who she?) last standing.
  • PigwidgeonPigwidgeon Shipmate
    My revised forecast is Scott Pruitt next out, Elaine Chao (who she?) last standing.

    She's Mitch McConnell's wife.

  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 31
    My revised forecast is Scott Pruitt next out, Elaine Chao (who she?) last standing.

    You can't change your "last standing" once you've picked it. See the rules.

    Also, while the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency is a "cabinet-level" position, it's not technically part of the cabinet so Scott Pruitt isn't included in the contest.
  • I know who Elaine Chao is. But she's off most people's radar. So I'm stuck with Jim Mattis as last Sec standing - perhaps not so unlikely.
    Now, next to go: Wilbur Ross, Commerce Secretary, is likely to end up in nick over his Cyprus connections, and a new batch of indictments is coming in a few weeks (which is a long time in anyone's politics), so I'll plump for him.
  • Didn't I hear some White House spokesdroid claim that there were no plans to replace Ben Carson? That's about the last nail in his coffin - I'll go for him next.
  • AristonAriston Circus Host
    While I almost agreed with Wilbur Ross (just corrupt enough to can, not so awful as to keep on as a sideshow), I think Rick Perry may be due in for other things—maybe a promotion, maybe a new gig as Secretary of...um...whoops, or maybe just cashing in his chips. Not disgrace, but not Energy Secretary for much longer either.
  • The RogueThe Rogue Shipmate
    It has been pointed out to me that the Easter Bunny has now made an appearance with Donald Trump two years in a row. Could she/he be in the running for last animal standing?
  • PigwidgeonPigwidgeon Shipmate
    The Rogue wrote: »
    It has been pointed out to me that the Easter Bunny has now made an appearance with Donald Trump two years in a row. Could she/he be in the running for last animal standing?
    If the current Easter Bunny is fired, maybe Sean Spicer could get the job again.


  • TukaiTukai Shipmate
    News reports here on the other side of the Pacific Ocean run "strong rumours" from Washington that Pruitt, having succeed in his Trump-given mandate, as Head of what is officially called the Environment Protection Agency, to remove regulatory "impediments" to destroying the environment will soon be promoted to Head of the Justice Dept so he can destroy justice as well.
    That would make Sessions the next Secretary to exit, so that's my pick . And for last survivor I pick Ms Chao, as being the wife of a prominent Republican should offer her some protection.
  • Amanda B ReckondwythAmanda B Reckondwyth Mystery Worship Editor
    Pigwidgeon wrote: »
    Elaine Chao (who she?)
    She's Mitch McConnell's wife.
    Poor woman.
  • OhherOhher Shipmate
    Joining late, but I think AG Jeff Session will be next. Last Secretary standing? Ross.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    I had a dream last night in which I saw a news report on the firing of Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. In my dream I thought first about how incredible it was that I saw it on the news instead of social media, and that I must go and post on this thread that the Mnuuuush is dead.

    Now that I am awake (I think, otherwise this is getting really weird) I felt obligated to go change my nominee for next to go, but I see that's against the rules so I must stick with Sessions.

    I really do think there should be an exception to the 'no changes' rule if you get a message from God. However, that has not happened to me. Rather, I think it is something much more strange and awful. I think that Trump and I have some sort of connection, sort of like the connection between Harry Potter and Voldemort. I think I was dreaming Trump's dream, leaking in through my own, and that it was him dreaming about how great it would be to see a report on the news about him sacking Steve Mnuchin.

    Pity me, dear reader.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited July 5
    Scott Pruitt is gone but, as noted earlier, the head of the EPA is not a cabinet position so standings are unchanged. I just felt like noting Scott Pruitt's postmature resignation.

    As is becoming traditional with this administration* Pruitt's departure was announced via Trump's twitter feed.
  • mousethiefmousethief Shipmate
    I like "postmature resignation." And agree.
  • Simon ToadSimon Toad Shipmate
    Wasn't that bloke a shocker. Trump appoints all the best people.
  • cliffdwellercliffdweller Shipmate
    The real tragedy is that his resignation had nothing to do with the incredibly horrible things he did to undermine the EPA, and more to do with his ridiculous dickishness in general
  • TukaiTukai Shipmate
    For those interested Here is a list of senior appointed officials dismissed by Trump - not just secretaries. It's a long list!
  • HedgehogHedgehog Shipmate
    The real tragedy is that his resignation had nothing to do with the incredibly horrible things he did to undermine the EPA, and more to do with his ridiculous dickishness in general
    I think it was more a question of expectations. I heard Sen. Carper this morning stating something to the effect of "we knew he would be against clean air regulations, that he would deny global warming, that he would favor business over the environment. What we didn't know was that he would be so ethically corrupt." That's a paraphrase (based on my faulty memory) and I can't find the actual wording, although there is a hint of it in Carper's official statement.
    I knew that Mr. Pruitt and I would seriously disagree when it came to policy. That was no surprise. But Mr. Pruitt’s brazen abuse of his position for his own personal gain has been absolutely astounding, rivaled only by the silence of far too many in Congress and in the White House who allowed Mr. Pruitt’s unethical, and, at times, possibly illegal behavior to go unchecked.
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