What is Trump? Can he win?
If there is one thing Martin54 and I agree on, it is Trump is a vengeful something or other (not sure how far we can go on the description without crossing the line). What we disagree on is whether he will win the next election.
I argue no he will not win.
Of course I said this in 2016 and he did.
My argument against Trump winning has to do with the outcomes of the mid term and special elections of the last four years. Most, not all, have been Democratic victories. For example, anytime reproductive rights have been on the ballot, the pro choice people have won.
It looks like five states are up for grabs: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
This is a year away; but, historically, Nevada and Pennsylvania have gone Democrat I think the election interference trial in Georgia can impact that state. Even through Wisconsin has a Republican legislature, it has a Democratic Governor and just recently voted for a liberal state supreme court justice. I think it will go Democratic.
In other words, there is very little wiggle room for Trump, in my book.
I think he will be in jail by the time the general election comes around.
I argue no he will not win.
Of course I said this in 2016 and he did.
My argument against Trump winning has to do with the outcomes of the mid term and special elections of the last four years. Most, not all, have been Democratic victories. For example, anytime reproductive rights have been on the ballot, the pro choice people have won.
It looks like five states are up for grabs: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
This is a year away; but, historically, Nevada and Pennsylvania have gone Democrat I think the election interference trial in Georgia can impact that state. Even through Wisconsin has a Republican legislature, it has a Democratic Governor and just recently voted for a liberal state supreme court justice. I think it will go Democratic.
In other words, there is very little wiggle room for Trump, in my book.
I think he will be in jail by the time the general election comes around.
Comments
IOW, he may not last long enough to become POTUS again, or, of course, he might be in jail...
How else can he not win?
The insane vision of Trump running the US from a prison cell is just too much to contemplate...
Meanwhile, I repeat - Trump is MORTAL. One day, he will DIE, and nothing anyone can say or do will alter that fact.
Which trial do you think will be concluded prior to the election?
So what? Chances are he won't die before the election, given average life expectancies and his access to high-quality medical care. What exactly do you know about his health other than his weight?
I challenge everyone making a prediction or speculating on this thread to support it with some facts.
Yes, but I'm not making any predictions. The fact that Trump is mortal is surely incontrovertible? I agree that he may still be alive and well, come the election, but, given the uncertainty of human life, he may not be...
That's true for all of humanity -- so what?
In an unChristian spirit, maybe, an expression of hope? Though gods forbid I should wish for anyone's death...
That's implicit in my 'How else'.
(1) He'll have to if he wants to save the US by saving Ukraine.
Honesty is an actual Christian virtue last I checked. I for one would be breaking out the New Years Eve champagne before 9 AM today if a news flash came across right this minute saying he'd stroked out.
Fair comment.
Despite his claims to the contrary, Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election so it's clear he can lose. Unless you're claiming that Trump did in fact win the 2020 presidential election. Can you clarify whether your assessment of Trump's unbeatability in presidential elections includes that particular conspiracy theory?
What actually is the Mexican border problem ? Is it real, or is it - like the UK’s migration “problem” - largely scapegoating for other policy failures. (NHS wait times, for example, have fuck all to do with migration levels.)
What I find most interesting is that @Amanda B Reckondwyth seems to regard Trump's proposed second term policies in this regard (a massive system of prison camps and war with Mexico) to be "solutions" to the "Mexico border problem". I think we've seen "
Hidden text- link to article about the final solution - la vie en rouge, Purgatory host
@Crœsos please do not link to highly upsetting subjects like the final solution without warning people what they're clicking on. This isn't the first time you've done this.
I have placed your link behind a cut.
Hostly beret off
la vie en rouge, Purgatory host
What do you think?
Exactly, there is no problem(o!) at all. Here or there. It's a sign of success, opportunity, economic growth, it lowers the age structure of the population; people are a blessing.
I think you're avoiding the question.
I regard no such thing. I would rather support Jabba the Hutt's dinner menu than anything from the mind of you-know-who. I do not have a solution to the border problem, nor am I qualified to offer one even if I had one.
You're avoiding the answer.
By his own admission, he had bone spurs.
In truth, little is known about Trump's real health issues. Lots of speculation.
I am concerned about his word salad speeches. This is a sign of narcissism, which we know he has, but it could indicate deeper issues too. There is enough there, that I would not want him to have access to the launch codes.
Let's face it, both leading candidates have the issue of age against them. I would love to see Nikki Haley vs Kamala Harris, this next go around.
I don't want to answer for @HarryCH but Trump's federal trial for election subversion is, as far as I know, still scheduled to begin on March 4, 2024. Judge Chutkan so far seems disinclined to re-schedule or push back the date. This seems the most likely of Trump's criminal trials to be concluded prior to the election. Trump's civil trial for fraud in New York will almost certainly be concluded by election day.
Mortality may play a more indirect role in the 2024 presidential election. I made a back of the envelope calculation on another thread but since then the Social Security Administration has updated their life tables so I can refine my numbers a little. (You did ask for supporting facts.)
In the 2020 presidential election the only age demographic that preferred Trump over Biden was voters at least 50 years old, at least according to exit polling. Using only 2020 census data and the 2020 Social Security life tables I calculate that approximately 12.3 million U.S. residents who were at least 50 in 2020 will have died before election day 2024. In a similar vein about 17 million U.S. residents who were between 14 and 17 years old in 2020 will be 18 or older on election day 2024.
There are, of course, some caveats here. A lot can happen in the 11 months between now and election day 2024 which may move voters more than demographic shifts will. The Census Bureau focuses on counting U.S. residents and does not have very good data on citizenship by age cohort. Younger U.S. residents are much more likely to be non-citizens (and thus ineligible to vote) than older ones. Being a citizen is also no guarantee of actually casting a ballot, something the younger cohort is notoriously negligent about. Still, this kind of population attrition is not moving things in the GOP's favor, which would explain their increased efforts at making it harder for new voters to register and vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/07/trump-20-ignorance-vengeance-us-chaos-for-world-order
It's real. From NPR:
The UN says "the United States-Mexico border is the world’s deadliest land route for migrants" (source) -- it's through the Sonoran Desert, which is very hot and very dry. And no matter what Biden does, more people will be heading our way because conditions in Venezuela are deteriorating, lots of people are already waiting in Mexico, and parts of Mexico are becoming more violent.
Oh God I wish he were right. Is there any sign of,
?
The basic gist is states have barred candidates if they do not meet the criteria of the constitution. One judge in Colorado has said Trump is an insurrectionist but he could not decide if the 14th Amendment applies to a presidential candidate. This question is now before the Colorado Supreme Court.
A bit of self-disclosure here, my former son in law was an undocumented Filipino when he got married to my daughter. They have one child, born in the United States. Elmer did get his citizenship eventually.
I put "undocumented" in parenthesis because as, as in the case of the dictator of the 30s. who is to say he won't go after other immigrants eventually, like my former son in law, or even my granddaughter--since, by Trump's definition, well, you know?
Then, on top of this, when Senator Lyndsey Graham was asked to comment about this, he said "I could care less."
This reminds me of the quote:
This has to stop.
It's amusing to see the GOP(aka the party of "states' rights" and "local control") suddenly wanting to federalize presidential elections, now that it's convenient for them.
That being said, it surely indicates something about the Democrats' prospects that they seem to think that the only way to defeat a man of Trump's character and record is to get him banned from running.
Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any other way.
Who will stop it?
What the Republicans seem not to realize is that many Democrats would give all the gold in the Yukon to have another Republican to vote for besides you-know-who. Many Democrats (OK, I'll include myself among them) are disillusioned with Uncle Joe and would really prefer not to vote for him. But no other viable Democratic candidate has come forward.
If the race were between Haley and Uncle Joe, Haley would win by a landslide. But the Republicans don't realize that. So it's gonna be between you-know-who and Uncle Joe, and God help us if Uncle Joe doesn't win.
It is Nikki Haley.
She does have the endorsement of Gov. Sununu in New Hampshire as well as the support of the Koch Network.
Yes, I would much prefer Nikki over Donald.
She has international experience and a more moderate domestic agenda than the other candidates.
I beg her pardon for the additional Yankee. I'd much prefer the Devil himself over Donald. As I said, he makes her look like a Democrat.
Because Republican voters are so well known for supporting non-white female candidates they'll turn out in droves. [/sarcasm]
If South Carolina Republicans will vote for her as governor, why wouldn't Republicans nationwide vote for her?
Only in the same sense as a ghost pepper makes a habanero look like a stomach soother.
Nikki Haley is firmly in the middle of the modern Republican party - she's anti-abortion, anti-tax, anti-LGBT* and mostly anti-immigration. There's nothing even slightly Democratic about her. But she is at least on the political field. Trump is off in the undergrowth somewhere pissing on a nest of fire ants.
*Haley's line on LGBT issues is broadly speaking "don't ask, don't tell".
la vie en rouge, Purgatory host
Snort Out Loud. Laugh is much rarer.
The deadline for printing ballots is especially important in Colorado, which votes entirely by mail. For those who want to read the court's decision directly it can be found here [PDF]. The key paragraph (p. 8):
My analysis is that being left off the primary ballot in Colorado would probably hurt Trump more than being left off the general election ballot. The states most likely to take actions like this are states Trump is unlikely to win in the general election (Colorado favored Biden over Trump by 55.4% to 41.9% in 2020), but taking a certain number of delegates off the table for him in the primary could really hurt his nomination chances.