119th Congress
Since we have a new U.S. Congress session starting today (3 January 2025), I thought a new thread should replace the old one. On opening day the House contains 219 Republican members-elect and 215 Democratic members-elect. The Senate has 52 Republican Senators, 45 Democratic Senators, and 2 independent Senators who caucus with the Democrats. There is one vacancy in each chamber. In the House, Matt Gaetz has declined to take his seat representing Florida's 1st district. A special election to replace him will be held on 1 April 2025. In the Senate Jim Justice, who was elected to replace Joe Manchin, will not take his seat until his term as Governor of West Virginia ends on 13 January 2025.
I referred to the House as "members-elect" because their first order of business, even before taking their oaths of office, is electing a Speaker. There technically is no House of Representatives until they elect their Speaker. Some of you may recall the difficulties a narrow Republican majority had in electing a Speaker in January 2023 and again when they replaced that Speaker in October 2023. The Republican majority (219-215) is even narrower at the opening of the 119th Congress than it was in January 2023 (222-212) or October 2023 (221-212). Representative-elect Thomas Massie (R-KY04) has already publicly said he would vote against returning Mike Johnson (R-LA04) to the position of Speaker, leaving Johnson with very little vote margin to retain the Speakership.
For those of you who are interested in watching this unfold in real time, the vote for Speaker of the House will be livestreaming here starting at noon EST (5:00 pm UTC) today (3 January 2025).
I referred to the House as "members-elect" because their first order of business, even before taking their oaths of office, is electing a Speaker. There technically is no House of Representatives until they elect their Speaker. Some of you may recall the difficulties a narrow Republican majority had in electing a Speaker in January 2023 and again when they replaced that Speaker in October 2023. The Republican majority (219-215) is even narrower at the opening of the 119th Congress than it was in January 2023 (222-212) or October 2023 (221-212). Representative-elect Thomas Massie (R-KY04) has already publicly said he would vote against returning Mike Johnson (R-LA04) to the position of Speaker, leaving Johnson with very little vote margin to retain the Speakership.
For those of you who are interested in watching this unfold in real time, the vote for Speaker of the House will be livestreaming here starting at noon EST (5:00 pm UTC) today (3 January 2025).
Comments
The Senate can go on to do its business, like approving-or disproving-the candidates for the cabinet and other major offices, even passing bills that need to be referred to the House.
It is commonly assumed that the first 100 days of a new administration will set the tone for the next four years. If it takes 60 or more days to get a new speaker, that will definitely hobble what the new administration can do. Look for a lot of executive decisions that will very likely be tied up in court for the near future.
Fun times for the US.
I think the math works out that Johnson can't even afford to lose one more vote, if we assume that he won't get Massie's vote. To be elected Speaker requires a majority of those casting a vote for a person. (Voting "present" is the same as not voting and just lowers the threshold for a majority.) If everyone shows up and votes for a person a majority of members-elect is 218 votes, which is the size of the Republican caucus minus Massie.
It might be even more complicated than that. If there is no House of Representatives, Congress cannot certify the presidential election. If the Speaker election goes on long enough, the U.S. might end up with Acting President Chuck Grassley. As president pro tempore of the Senate he's next in the line of presidential succession if the president (uncertified), vice president (uncertified), and Speaker of the House (vacant) are all unavailable.
The last speaker election fiasco was in October, and the one before that was right after the mid-terms, so the presidential election was not a factor in those cases.
For a while I thought that someone from the Trump team had taken House Republicans aside and convinced them to show some unity and not interfere with their God-Emperor's coronation inauguration, but I guess some things are just unmanageable.
There will be another round of voting. Whether it happens today is up for debate.
I may be confused but I'm seeing that he did get elected on the first round: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/mike-johnson-reelected-house-speaker-in-dramatic-first-round-floor-vote
https://www.newsweek.com/after-grilling-robert-mueller-about-accountability-accusations-gym-jordans-involvement-osu-1450949
Amen. Red tape can be a blessing…
BroJames
Purgatory Host
They apparently held the vote open long enough for Johnson to convince/browbeat Ralph Norman (R-SC05) and Keith Self (R-TX03) to switch their votes to Johnson. My mistake was assuming that the usual five minute period after the first two rounds of the roll call vote would be in effect.
I see it differently. Norman and Self got what they wanted. More say among the members in drafting legislation, and they got a promise Johnson will not work with Democrats to get key legislation passed. That one point might be a poison pill, though, since the Republicans are so divided Johnson has to work with the Dems. Norman and Self held all the cards. Johnson had to give in to them to keep the speakership.
On the other it will only take two representatives, such as Norman and Self to throw a wrench in this massive bill. Odd, that I find myself cheering for them on this one.
Salon reporting suggests that there may be some restlessness in the ranks of Congressional Republicans over tariffs:
Live feed here, for those who are interested.
The YouTube live chat says he said he plans to go for 25 hours.
I thought he was reading the constitution at one point. (And yes, my comment to my kid was that was much better than the phone book.) And that's before I considered how desperately this administratiion needs to hear the constitution read!
When he crossed the 24 hour, 18-minute mark, he was in the middle of forgiving Strom Thurmond for opposing civil rights. This was all clearly well planned out.
Gotta say, this does not fill me with hope for the future of the United States.
It's no wonder their approval rating is roughly on par with toenail fungus.
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Doublethink
[/Admin]
When last we saw "George Santos" he was pleading guilty to a bunch of felonies. His sentencing was today and things did not go in "Santos'" favor.
So, the maximum sentence for a first time offender. Given how contrite and apologetic he was this seems . . . wait:
I guess the court didn't buy the whole "I'm very remorseful about this totally unjustified prosecution" schtick.
Now, if the courts could just do something about the grifter in chief.