Is it 2026 yet? US Mid Term Elections
Looks like the midterm elections 2026 is going to be a nail biter all around. Checking with 270toWin.com. We may just see 25 Democratic Governors and 25 Republican Governors. Then too, there appears to be 20 contested seats in the House of Representatives. Seems like the Republicans just may retain the Senate by at least one vote.
Of course, a lot can happen in one year.
What I am seeing is many of the old guard--both the Democrats and the Republicans--will be facing some more radical challengers in the primary. The Democrats will have to contend with a surge from the Socialist camp, and the Republicans just might have to deal with the--hate to say it--Fascist camp.
Historically, the midterm house election goes to the party opposite of the president, but this president is doing everything he can to tip the scales in his favor by getting Republican states to redraw their congressional districts--something that is not normally done but once a decade.
Of course, Trump may have turned off some of his traditional voters in deep red districts. Look at the soybean farmers of the Midwest losing their markets and cattlemen objecting to Trump buying Argentinian meat. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any modern president. I would hope this will translate into votes against him in the congressional races.
Let's get in on.
Of course, a lot can happen in one year.
What I am seeing is many of the old guard--both the Democrats and the Republicans--will be facing some more radical challengers in the primary. The Democrats will have to contend with a surge from the Socialist camp, and the Republicans just might have to deal with the--hate to say it--Fascist camp.
Historically, the midterm house election goes to the party opposite of the president, but this president is doing everything he can to tip the scales in his favor by getting Republican states to redraw their congressional districts--something that is not normally done but once a decade.
Of course, Trump may have turned off some of his traditional voters in deep red districts. Look at the soybean farmers of the Midwest losing their markets and cattlemen objecting to Trump buying Argentinian meat. Trump has the lowest approval rating of any modern president. I would hope this will translate into votes against him in the congressional races.
Let's get in on.
Comments
Here is how one Democratic opinionator is hoping the New Kings movement will help the Democratic party: https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/5566458-trump-protests-no-kings-day/
We do need to keep the family in our thoughts and prayers.
🕯 and for the deceased as well.
And maybe it's already dead simply because some people clearly have significant doubts that we will have free and fair elections. People expecting their elections to be tampered with already affects likelihood of voting etc.
I think a situation in which both sides are saying that if they don’t win then the election was rigged is one in which democracy is already dead.
That is an exaggeration. I suspect democracies are often (usually?) like that. It's just that we have come to expect better of the USA.
I don't think this is true, although we're in danger of summoning the Scotsman.
Which countries would you suggest are widely agreed to have functional democracies and also have the major parties believing that the election was rigged when they lose?
I can’t recall a single election in the UK where any of the losing parties even suggested that the election was rigged. Meanwhile, in the USA right now we’ve got Democrats saying that if they don’t win handsomely then it’s because democracy is dead, and a Republican Party that used claims of election fraud to literally try to stage a coup the last time they lost.
That’s not a good position to be in, because if neither side will accept defeat then democracy is indeed dead. It feels like it’s heading towards civil war, frankly.
Really? Because I recall a number of occasions where UKIP/Brexit/Reform have claimed Labour rigged council elections with postal votes.
I think we are spoiled by considering the post-war West as a norm. I would suggest pre-1832 British elections were pretty openly rigged, for example. The candidates were expected to spend heavily on bribing the electorate.
The idea of true "civil war" I also think unlikely. Civil war requires centres of power that have the wherewithal to organise militarily against each other. In 1861 the individual states had enough autonomy to do this. I don't think this is true any longer. I think there could be considerable "civil unrest" and perhaps guerilla activity. But say, for example, Trump and MAGA retain control of the federal government for the next decade or so. Where would the opposing armies come from? How would they organise?
While I agree that a "hot" civil war is probably unlikely, opposing armies could come from:
- splits in the armed forces themselves, either within services or with, say, the Army on one side and the Marines on the other
- national guard vs regular forces or guard vs guard with regular forces refusing to get involved. "Meal Team 6" jokes aside they're more than capable of killing a lot of people, and many will have active duty experience in Iraq or Afghanistan.
- Militias, either state or independent. There are a *lot* of guns and ammunition around and while trained military might well make short work of irregular forces in pitched battles the lessons of occupation are there for all to see
- international interference. In the event of conflict, it's hard to know how Mexico and Canada would respond, even before opportunities for hostile/rival powers (Russia, China, DPRK) to equip/fund/provide air support to one side or the other.