Purgatory: Coronavirus

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  • O well. I guess I was more interested in Alice than the beer...
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Perhaps most astonishingly, the White House had to retract two policy announcements that Trump erroneously made either because he failed to read his text properly, or his speechwriters failed to describe his position. Trump announced his European travel ban would apply to “trade and cargo,” before the White House announced this was an error.

    So why is the question of trade and cargo from inside the Schengen Area important enough for the White House to issue a public correction, especially given how much The Boss hates getting publicly corrected? Oh right.
    Two of the three factories (the U.S. one is the smallest) that make Qiagen RNA extraction kits are in Germany & Spain. This is fine.

    Once again, you simply couldn't make it up. It's hard to believe that Trump is actually for real, and I am more and more convinced that he is a botched alien attempt at creating a human being...
    :flushed:

  • Corona "beer" is very popular in Arizona -- among college kids who like the cheap yellow stuff. They seem to consume it by the gallon when going to Mexico for spring break.

    I've never tried it, but do enjoy Dos Equis Ambar(sic).
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    Absent measures to isolate the vulnerable, 'natural' herd immunity via spreading the virus just means that large numbers of people will die.

    You are confusing method and outcome here, we can not prevent all deaths, to protect the vulnerable and reduce the death rate - buy time for herd immunity, vaccine etc - we need to avoid their *exposure* to the virus.

    Isolation is one potential way of doing that.

    However, if - for example - you take 100 vulnerable people scattered across the community and put them all in one hotel which you intend to keep virus free *and you fail* you potentially end up with more of them dying than if you had left them where they were.

    I think there is a role for isolation, but you need to understand how the people who support those vulnerable individuals are also going to be kept virus free and able to function.

    It is not a simple solution, if you shut down schools and childcare - potentially support staff won't be able to go into support vulnerable adults because they will have to care for their children. Or children with a mild illness pass it to their grandparents who have been drafted in to do emergency childcare so their parents can work.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    It gives me tummy trouble. 🤨
  • NicoleMRNicoleMR Shipmate
    It's now official, all New York City public libraries are cancelling all public programs through the end of March.
  • Absent measures to isolate the vulnerable, 'natural' herd immunity via spreading the virus just means that large numbers of people will die.

    You are confusing method and outcome here, we can not prevent all deaths, to protect the vulnerable and reduce the death rate - buy time for herd immunity, vaccine etc - we need to avoid their *exposure* to the virus.

    I don't think I am; yes, it should be "absent measures to reduce the exposure of the vulnerable to the virus" as you point out, but the point still stands.

    I have not seen anything else announced, social distancing doesn't start and end with closing down schools.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    It is a whole new world. The National Basketball Association has suspended the rest of the Basketball Season. Colleges and Universities are going to online classrooms, some to the end of the academic year. Churches are cancelling services. Businesses are reporting steep drops that vary according to category. etc.

    I am wondering now, when things become stabilized, will we return to the past, or will we have to find a new normal.

    For instance, university classes. There is something to be said about classroom instruction where there can be spontaneous discussions. Labs certainly cannot be taught on line, nor can most of the Arts.

    Will we see another Dark Ages?

  • I doubt it. Once the current scare is over, it'll be business as usual...
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    I am wondering now, when things become stabilized, will we return to the past, or will we have to find a new normal.

    For instance, university classes. There is something to be said about classroom instruction where there can be spontaneous discussions. Labs certainly cannot be taught on line, nor can most of the Arts.

    As you point out, there are lots of things that you just can't do virtually - lab science, sculpture, textiles, drama, dance, metalwork, plumbing, and so on. There are useful things that you can do remotely for all of those classes for a short while, but they all have an essential hands-on component. (Sure - you can do most of those things at home if you have the right equipment, but by and large students don't have that stuff at home.)

    Small classes (a tutor with maybe as many as a dozen students) can go online with only a modest diminishment in the ease of spontaneous discussion. The thing that's hardest to reproduce online isn't class discussion, but the sideband communication that you get by for example glancing at your neighbor and asking if he understands what the instructor is going on about.

    Big discussion classes are harder to manage online.
  • I doubt it. Once the current scare is over, it'll be business as usual...
    This. People will be anxious for the return of business as usual.

  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Nick Tamen wrote: »
    I doubt it. Once the current scare is over, it'll be business as usual...
    This. People will be anxious for the return of business as usual.

    Interestingly this may also be the explanation for the success of Joe Biden's primary campaign.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    I doubt it. Once the current scare is over, it'll be business as usual...
    For the past 25 years part of my work has been with techniques and equipment for nuclear emergencies. Looking back over 70 years of mucking about with nuclear power, there's a clear pattern that emerges:

    1. We aren't prepared for an accident
    2. Accident happens and we respond with whatever we can get our hands on and do what we can
    3. We enter recovery phase, we develop new equipment and methods and procedures to deal with the situation before us
    4. As we leave the recovery phase people start to analyse what was done to respond to the emergency, lessons are learnt, recommendations for what is needed before the next emergency are made (they may even be implemented) etc. We are prepared for another accident
    5. Time passes. Governments wonder if they need to spend all this money on being ready for an emergency. The people leading the response to the last emergency move onto new fields or retire. Lessons are forgotten, equipment sits around untested or even scrapped ...
    6. return to 1.

    We average about 25 years between big nuclear accidents (much less for smaller ones). Maybe the time between new strains of 'flu or coronavirus leading to pandemics is less, and therefore the institutional memory survives long enough to span the gap between outbreaks that the equivalent to step 5 doesn't happen when business as usual kicks in ... but, somehow I doubt it.
  • This is news here about VIDO-Intervac (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization - International Vaccine Centre):

    They were on radio this morning discussing that they've tested a vaccine on ferrets They're a government lab, The interview this morning suggested fast track human trials in 7 months if I heard correctly. Subject to Health Canada and the WHO. This is only link I could find this morning: https://globalnews.ca/news/6635607/ferrets-a-saskatoon-lab-and-the-leading-edge-of-the-race-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine/
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    The setup: Sen. Mitch McConnell asks Democrats and Republicans to work together to fight the coronavirus (2 days ago)

    The punchline: McConnell ally says Senate won't take up House coronavirus bill until after recess. (today)

    The Senate is currently scheduled to return from recess on March 23, eleven days from now. As a reminder, Italy went from everything being (apparently) fine to national lockdown in three weeks.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    This is news here about VIDO-Intervac (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization - International Vaccine Centre):

    They were on radio this morning discussing that they've tested a vaccine on ferrets They're a government lab, The interview this morning suggested fast track human trials in 7 months if I heard correctly.

    That seems consistent with estimates that it will take 12 to 18 months to develop a working vaccine to the point where it's ready for distribution. (This is usually presented as a best case scenario.)
  • Ireland closing schools inevitably makes people wonder at the difference from the UK. It makes the border even odder, of course, as if the virus will respect it.
  • The Juno Awards, Canadian national music awards, to take place on March 15 in Saskatoon have been cancelled.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Ruth wrote: »
    The NBA has already suspended all games following one player's positive test for Covid-19, and I'll be surprised if baseball season opens in the normal way on March 26.

    My guess is that the NBA suspending its season is going to be the turning point where a lot of Americans finally realize that COVID-19 is real and serious.
  • HedgehogHedgehog Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    The National Basketball Association has suspended the rest of the Basketball Season.
    Slight correction. The NBA has suspended play "until further notice." Whether that turns out to be the rest of the season (they are currently about 80% of the way through their regular season) remains to be seen. By comparison, Major League Soccer has suspended matches "for a month."
  • Absent measures to isolate the vulnerable, 'natural' herd immunity via spreading the virus just means that large numbers of people will die.

    You are confusing method and outcome here, we can not prevent all deaths, to protect the vulnerable and reduce the death rate - buy time for herd immunity, vaccine etc - we need to avoid their *exposure* to the virus.

    I have not seen anything else announced, social distancing doesn't start and end with closing down schools.

    Reiterating this: Whitty says they're not going to recommend social distancing for elderly/vulnerable people because that will come further down the line.
  • And now the NHL has suspended its season.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    Looking at this graph (scroll down) leads me to believe that the Contain phase really didn't work, and the Delay phase should have started last weekend.
  • I'm listening (as usual) to WQXR, New York City's classical music radio station, through my computer. Listening to all of the closings -- the Metropolitan Opera, Carnegie Hall, the New York Philharmonic, the New Jersey Symphony, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, etc. etc. -- reminds me of when I was a child listening to school closings the morning of a snow storm. Except in those days the closings were good news.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    Daughter gets a fever and cough just as the advice changes to anyone with symptoms to self isolate...
  • Meanwhile the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared that dogs can't ge the virus. Dogs in quarantine may be released. We now know that WHO let the dogs out.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    :smiley:
  • Meanwhile the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared that dogs can't get the virus. Dogs in quarantine may be released. We now know that WHO let the dogs out.
    :lol:

  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Not sure. The fundamental problem with the UK figures is the unknown number of asymptomatic carriers.
  • Doc Tor wrote: »
    Looking at this graph (scroll down) leads me to believe that the Contain phase really didn't work, and the Delay phase should have started last weekend.

    My impression is that they could have done a Korea given the notice they had but chose not to, and are now hoping that the UK version of Italy won't be that bad.
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    edited March 2020
    Just listened to Emmanuel Macron's presidential address, and it couldn't be more different to Trump's. Synopsis: France is taking strict measures, notably closing schools, but the government is doing its utmost. Medical students and recently retired medical personnel are being drafted in. Economic measures will be taken to allow people to take time off and as many people as possible are encouraged to work from home.

    He poked Trump in the eye on several occasions, by insisting on the excellence of European science and importance of international cooperation. Quoth Manu, "a virus has no passport." He's going to speak to Trump by phone tomorrow. No doubt the call will be perfect. 😛

    ETA The municipal elections are still on.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    edited March 2020
    It's a risk balancing exercise, and so far I think Professor Chris Whitty (CMO) and Sir Patrick Vallance (CSA) are making good sense in assessing and explaining the risks. If the "unknown"dimension is worse than they currently estimate, then numbers will escalate more quickly, but still give time for more draconian action. We'll see.

    Personally, we can live with an extended period of self-isolation, so for us it's a low risk strategy. But there is scope for other personal decision making.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    Doc Tor wrote: »
    Looking at this graph (scroll down) leads me to believe that the Contain phase really didn't work, and the Delay phase should have started last weekend.

    My impression is that they could have done a Korea given the notice they had but chose not to, and are now hoping that the UK version of Italy won't be that bad.

    We haven’t seen what Korea’s figures look like after the lifting of quarantine.

    Covid 19 is caused by a variant of SARS - government policy will have been informed by studying what worked and didn’t other SARS outbreaks. Studies like this one. Obviously, this was different illness where sustained community transmission was less of a problem - but look at the quarantine compliance figures.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    ETA The municipal elections are still on.
    Only just, according to the pundits. I think Macron would have preferred to postpone, not just for selfish political reasons but also for public health ones, but apparently the heat from the opposition was too much.

    Now debating whether church should happen this Sunday (doubtless for the last time for some time) or whether that's already happened.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    UK Electoral Commission have written to the government advising the May local elections should be shifted to the autumn - and I think it’s likely they’ll do that.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    Ruth wrote: »
    The NBA has already suspended all games following one player's positive test for Covid-19, and I'll be surprised if baseball season opens in the normal way on March 26.

    My guess is that the NBA suspending its season is going to be the turning point where a lot of Americans finally realize that COVID-19 is real and serious.
    If that doesn’t do it, the cancellation of March Madness likely will.

    And Major League Baseball spring training has been cancelled too.

  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Nick Tamen wrote: »
    If that doesn’t do it, the cancellation of March Madness likely will.

    There is madness enough already. Anything else would be redundant.
  • Basketball is not on the radar here, but hockey is. The NHL has suspended the season.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    I had to google March Madness, but there is madness aplenty on the News, especially if you watch tRump.
  • CameronCameron Shipmate

    Brilliant!

    The last frame of my poster is “On a hurtlin’ fevered train”, which seems oddly fitting...
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    If you use custom, you can put in poetry.
  • Nick Tamen wrote: »
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Ruth wrote: »
    The NBA has already suspended all games following one player's positive test for Covid-19, and I'll be surprised if baseball season opens in the normal way on March 26.

    My guess is that the NBA suspending its season is going to be the turning point where a lot of Americans finally realize that COVID-19 is real and serious.
    If that doesn’t do it, the cancellation of March Madness likely will.

    And Major League Baseball spring training has been cancelled too.

    And Disneyland!
    :fearful:
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    As has been widely shared on social media, our government has learnt the four stage strategy of dealing with crisis.
  • I posted this in the “Forbidding the Cup to the Laity Violates Anglican Doctrine“ thread in Ecclesiantics:

    The bishops of the Episcopal Diocese of North Carolina have suspended all in-person worship and non-worship gatherings in the diocese for the next two weeks, at least. The two United Methodist bishops in North Carolina have recommended that the churches in their annual conferences suspend worship for two weeks. This follows the governor’s advice/request that gatherings of more than 100 people not be held for the time being.

    To my knowledge, nothing similar has come from our presbytery yet, but I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t. I think the plan at our place will be to suspend gathering for services for two weeks, and to have a “skeleton crew” at the church to stream services.

  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    I think this is where we find out just how much bandwidth is (or isn't) out there.
  • Cameron wrote: »

    Brilliant!

    The last frame of my poster is “On a hurtlin’ fevered train”, which seems oddly fitting...

    Putting Dancing Queen in means you hurtle out of the bathroom singing the chorus!
  • Golden KeyGolden Key Shipmate, Glory
    San Franciso is closing its public schools. There'd been a plan to keep them open, then (if necessary) close individual schools. But AIUI there was a possible exposure at one school, and the district jumped ahead in its plans.

    The archdiocese closed local Catholic schools earlier this week.
  • edited March 2020
    Sophie Trudeau, wife of Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau has the virus. The prime minister is in isolation for 14 days with her and children. https://globalnews.ca/news/6670203/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-coronavirus-positive/

    She caught it in the UK. A gathering with a bunch of celebrities. Some giant 12,000 person meeting at Wembly stadium there. Everyone who attended should self isolate I suppose. It's probably too late. Even if 100 people caught it, and each infected say 4 people who each infected 4 people etc. Which was what China seems to have successfully suppressed in Wuhan. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grégoire-trudeau-self-isolating-1.5495419

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