Purgatory: Coronavirus

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  • A rather chilling note was struck by our Diocesan in his latest message to clergy and Readers regarding the conducting of funerals, and the need for increased ministerial cover if crematoria have to be open 24/7, and/or mass burials are required.

    No concrete advice yet, but he's working on it...
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    Nothing approaching a traditional funeral has been possible here for over a week now.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Nor is it here, either, though we are still awaiting further guidance/instructions from the Church (of England). They are presently AFAIK in discussions with the government.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    By which I meant "religious minister officiating at all" (actually, one just about can, but it's pretty much impossible and soon will be altogether I think).
  • Hmm. Sounds as though we might still be able to officiate, but, as I say, we await further instructions...

    OTOH, there may be no officiant(s) at all.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    edited March 2020
    I favour lockdown. I favour mandatory stay at home. I favour no going out and full suppression of individual freedom so as to control this. I think it's the right approach, and the slowly gradual approach will lead to the predicted nightmare. Which centralized and lock down has been shown to control.

    If you disagree, please say why.

    I disagree because you will cause people to die in their homes.

    I'm sure if we persist with this conversation and I point out various circumstances, you will agree that they should probably be exceptions to your "lockdown" and "full suppression" and so on.

    At the very least, please explain how you are going to magic a food supply of several weeks into every home.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    It's the same dilemma we've been discussing over in Eccles. Officiating seems the proper thing to do, but these are not normal times. Offciants are potentially a risk to any mourners, the funeral staff, and vice versa. Fulfilling our role, setting a social distancing example, and continuing to do so, requires huge efforts of massively counter-intuitive thinking.

    I think it's going to be a case of 'let the dead bury the dead', virtual funerals, and save the mourning till later.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    The latest restrictions have just been announced in Australia. Some more types of businesses required to shut down. Weddings are restricted to the 5 necessary people - the couple, the celebrant and 2 witnesses. Funerals restricted to 10 people.

    Schools not shut. We will never hear the end of fucking schools no matter how many times the Chief Medical Officer explains the weighing up that is informing the decision to not shut them.
  • Here in central New England: Husband and I have been in semi-isolation since the beginning of March. Stocked up on food items for the freezer and pantry, got hand sanitizer while it was still available, got vinyl gloves. I monitor our temperature twice daily, and record any symptoms of dry cough or breathing difficulties. So far all is normal.

    Since 3/17 all schools, bars/pubs, restaurants are closed; TEC and RC churches closed, not sure re others. Banks open with minimal staff. Most shops closed, pharmacies and grocery stores open.

    The general population seems to understand and honor the 6 ft. distancing for "social isolation" and we're aghast seeing photos on the news of folks in the UK and Europe sitting close to each other. We're equally outraged at the photos of US college kids drinking and frolicing on the beaches of Florida for spring break (although I read now that the authorities have ended that.) Mail still being delivered.

    I continue to walk two to three miles daily around the town. Everyone is honoring social distancing and it gets to be quite humorous as we zigzag across the street to avoid passing eachother on the walkway. I went to post office and cash machine yesterday: wore vinyl gloves to avoid touching the keypad and door handles. I then removed them and tossed them in a bin before coming home. We exercise caution and wear gloves for popping into the grocers for veg, and the wine&spirits store for Scotch.

    As of March 23 the State of Vermont has tested 1173 individuals; 75 are positive; there have been 5 deaths. Our bishop invites as all to join her via Zoom in saying Morning Prayer and Compline daily. Sunday Eucharist broadcast from National Cathedral in DC. Presiding Bishop offering daily refections on internet.
    .
    As retirees we are rather accoustomed to being a bit bored with ourseles and each other. My big frustration? -- I'd made a good start on sermons for Palm Sunday and Easter and now will not preach! (Neither hubby nor the teddy bears have interest to play congregation).
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited March 2020
    jay_emm - total UK deaths were less than half a million in 6 years. Global: 3%

    The death rates globally are over 4% of reported cases which are 0.005% of the world population (3.4 x WW2) - so far.

    Unreported cases are 10-20 x that. Call it 15. Whose death rate is obviously much less. The Russians are in denial of course. So about 0.1% of the world has it so far and that is growing exponentially, with cases doubling every 2 days, going to 3 after a month.

    Best case, i.e. 3 days, is everybody on Earth in a month.

    So call it weekly, as in the well managed nations. Not even three months.

    So if only 4% of the reported die, and the world only reports 7% and only 80% actually get it, only 20 million will have died by then.

    That feels a tad more intense than 1939-40. As does the almost total lockdown.

    Climate change is a golden memory for now.

    Spanish flu (British actually) was twice as bad as WWI. This is worse.

  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    I think (and hope) that back-of-the-envelope extrapolations like that are the second casualty of coming into contact with real life (the first being plans). In a good way.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    The work-adaptation-challenge completed today was the request from the School of Physics for projects for their MSc students to start on June 1st. Three projects outlines produced and submitted ... none of which will actually require meeting the students for them to do the work. It maybe that restrictions will be lifted somewhat before they finish, but the working assumption is that restrictions will be in place until the end of the summer. We don't do much work with undergraduate students, but I expect the university is already working on what to do if they can't provide lectures, library access etc when the new year starts after the summer.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    Eutychus wrote: »
    I think (and hope) that back-of-the-envelope extrapolations like that are the second casualty of coming into contact with real life (the first being plans). In a good way.

    Indeed. For one thing it's not possible to extrapolate a rate of infection to "everybody on Earth".
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Eutychus wrote: »
    I think (and hope) that back-of-the-envelope extrapolations like that are the second casualty of coming into contact with real life (the first being plans). In a good way.
    The "back-of -the-envelope" approach is the subject of an old joke

    A farmer went into the pub (you can tell it's an old joke, the pub's open) looking very sad. He sat down with his friends who asked him what was wrong, and he explained that his best cow had stopped producing milk. One of his friends was a vet, and asked him about other symptoms and what tests had been done ... and the farmer said his regular vet had been out and done all the tests and found nothing. Another friend was a botanist, and so asked if there were any unusual plants in his fields that the cow might have eaten ... but, the farmer said he'd already examined the fields for odd plants. The third friend was a physicist, and throughout the conversation had been scrawling on the back of a beer mat and finally declared "I've got it ... imagine a spherical cow ..."

    Too much speculative projection starts with a spherical cow.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    edited March 2020
    I'm not sure what the basis is for saying the Russians are in denial... does that mean the Ukrainians are in even more denial? They have a lower reported infection rate than the Russians.

    Though both have jumped noticeably in the last 1-2 days.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    My 'contacts' tell me that deaths recorded as simple pneumonia are increasing rapidly.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited March 2020
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited March 2020
    Eutychus wrote: »
    I think (and hope) that back-of-the-envelope extrapolations like that are the second casualty of coming into contact with real life (the first being plans). In a good way.
    The "back-of -the-envelope" approach is the subject of an old joke

    A farmer went into the pub (you can tell it's an old joke, the pub's open) looking very sad. He sat down with his friends who asked him what was wrong, and he explained that his best cow had stopped producing milk. One of his friends was a vet, and asked him about other symptoms and what tests had been done ... and the farmer said his regular vet had been out and done all the tests and found nothing. Another friend was a botanist, and so asked if there were any unusual plants in his fields that the cow might have eaten ... but, the farmer said he'd already examined the fields for odd plants. The third friend was a physicist, and throughout the conversation had been scrawling on the back of a beer mat and finally declared "I've got it ... imagine a spherical cow ..."

    Too much speculative projection starts with a spherical cow.

    Mooooooo. I'm sure I'm wildly, absurdly... moooooooooooooooo

    The best laid plans of Nigeria next year will be what? And Iran now are what? Mexico?
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Interesting (alleged) development from Brazil.
    Gangs in the Rio de Janeiro favelas have enforced a lockdown from 8pm tonight. The statement reads: "If the government won't do the right thing, organised crime will"
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    The approach of criminals is fascinating as the players are highly adaptable. Drug dealers here initially did business as usual - suitably equipped with face masks and protective gloves. Now that outside gatherings are banned, I think the form is to go supermarket shopping at the same time as your client and deal in the aisles.
  • The ingenuity of Humming Beans is undeniably wonderful, however misguided (in the case of Miscreants, and Malefactors) it might be.

    @Martin54 , I think you need to throw out your old fag packets. They have enough doom-laden stuff on them already... :wink:
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host
    Somehow this (1 minute watch) seems to belong here.
  • Brilliant!
    :lol:

    (And probably happening right now, in a back alley near you...)
  • betjemaniacbetjemaniac Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Eutychus wrote: »
    I think (and hope) that back-of-the-envelope extrapolations like that are the second casualty of coming into contact with real life (the first being plans). In a good way.
    The "back-of -the-envelope" approach is the subject of an old joke

    A farmer went into the pub (you can tell it's an old joke, the pub's open) looking very sad. He sat down with his friends who asked him what was wrong, and he explained that his best cow had stopped producing milk. One of his friends was a vet, and asked him about other symptoms and what tests had been done ... and the farmer said his regular vet had been out and done all the tests and found nothing. Another friend was a botanist, and so asked if there were any unusual plants in his fields that the cow might have eaten ... but, the farmer said he'd already examined the fields for odd plants. The third friend was a physicist, and throughout the conversation had been scrawling on the back of a beer mat and finally declared "I've got it ... imagine a spherical cow ..."

    Too much speculative projection starts with a spherical cow.

    A long time since I heard that one, but it remains very true.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    The ingenuity of Humming Beans is undeniably wonderful, however misguided (in the case of Miscreants, and Malefactors) it might be.

    @Martin54 , I think you need to throw out your old fag packets. They have enough doom-laden stuff on them already... :wink:

    Very clever : )

    2000 a day dead doubling every week for a month? 30,000 a day? Levelling off then for two months. To 50,000? A day? Spanish flu killed twenty million. A year at that rate, without seasonal dips. Two years with summer heat and UV and headed off at the pass by vaccination at the end. Pretty conservative I'd say.

    I've only got one cigar packet left mind.
  • Anselmina wrote: »
    Our state CDC announced today...

    I don't know where CDC is...
    CDC is Center for Disease Control. There's a national one, and then I assume each state has one. At least, my state has one. I'm in the US.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    I think we have a CDC in Borisland.

    It stands for Commander Dominic Cummings.

    I'll get me latex gloves...
    Martin54 wrote: »
    The ingenuity of Humming Beans is undeniably wonderful, however misguided (in the case of Miscreants, and Malefactors) it might be.

    @Martin54 , I think you need to throw out your old fag packets. They have enough doom-laden stuff on them already... :wink:

    Very clever : )

    2000 a day dead doubling every week for a month? 30,000 a day? Levelling off then for two months. To 50,000? A day? Spanish flu killed twenty million. A year at that rate, without seasonal dips. Two years with summer heat and UV and headed off at the pass by vaccination at the end. Pretty conservative I'd say.

    I've only got one cigar packet left mind.

    If the packet still has cigars in it, enjoy them now, while you can. O, and smoke one for me - I gave up years ago, but wouldn't mind starting again (yes, I know I shouldn't...).

  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    I think we have a CDC in Borisland.

    It stands for Commander Dominic Cummings.

    I'll get me latex gloves...
    Martin54 wrote: »
    The ingenuity of Humming Beans is undeniably wonderful, however misguided (in the case of Miscreants, and Malefactors) it might be.

    @Martin54 , I think you need to throw out your old fag packets. They have enough doom-laden stuff on them already... :wink:

    Very clever : )

    2000 a day dead doubling every week for a month? 30,000 a day? Levelling off then for two months. To 50,000? A day? Spanish flu killed twenty million. A year at that rate, without seasonal dips. Two years with summer heat and UV and headed off at the pass by vaccination at the end. Pretty conservative I'd say.

    I've only got one cigar packet left mind.

    If the packet still has cigars in it, enjoy them now, while you can. O, and smoke one for me - I gave up years ago, but wouldn't mind starting again (yes, I know I shouldn't...).

    Yeah, mine's a year old.
  • I'm grateful that the politicians here have stopped sniping and the Chief Medical Officer for province is using his power to organize things via what the science says. The Public Health Act gives sweeping powers. I think this might be like a CDC.
  • If someone in the UK on here signs up for the new NHS volunteer role, I'd appreciate a post on here as to whether one needs a smart phone. I don't have one, but I do have a laptop PC, car, and I'm not in an 'at risk' group. Oh - and I don't have a job to go to :smile:
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    It's been two days since I posted the last list, so here's the list of known COVID-19 cases by country. For the sake of brevity I'm limiting the list to countries with at least 5,000 known infections.
    1. China - 81,171 (4,735 / 73,159 / 3,277) 4.3%
    2. Italy - 69,176 (54,030 / 8,326 / 6,820)
    3. United States - 50,860 (49,839 / 368 / 653)
    4. Spain - 39,676 (33,082 / 3,794 / 2,800)
    5. Germany - 32,781 (29,492 / 3,133 / 156)
    6. Iran - 24,811 (13,964 / 8,913 / 1,934)
    7. France - 19,856 (16,796 / 2,200 / 860)
    8. Switzerland - 9,117 (8,864 / 131 / 122)
    9. South Korea - 9,037 (5,410 / 3,507 / 120)
    10. United Kingdom - 8,077 (7,520 / 135 / 422)
    11. Netherlands - 5,560 (5,282 / 2 / 276)
    12. Austria - 5,137 (5,100 / 9 / 28)

    The listings are in the format:

    X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]

    Because it's so dependent on care and this is a fast-moving situation I'm only listing fatality rates for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1. At the moment China is the only country to meet that criteria.

    Two new additions to this "contest" that no one wants to play, much less "win", are the Netherlands and Austria, having both crossed the 5,000 known case threshold since my last list two days ago.
  • If someone in the UK on here signs up for the new NHS volunteer role, I'd appreciate a post on here as to whether one needs a smart phone. I don't have one, but I do have a laptop PC, car, and I'm not in an 'at risk' group. Oh - and I don't have a job to go to :smile:

    I'm unclear as to why if the NHS are going to get - in the words of Matt Hancock - "Whatever it takes" they'd need volunteers.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    If someone in the UK on here signs up for the new NHS volunteer role, I'd appreciate a post on here as to whether one needs a smart phone. I don't have one, but I do have a laptop PC, car, and I'm not in an 'at risk' group. Oh - and I don't have a job to go to :smile:

    I’d have thought that you’d be fine if you have a laptop - they just need to be able to communicate with you.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    If someone in the UK on here signs up for the new NHS volunteer role, I'd appreciate a post on here as to whether one needs a smart phone. I don't have one, but I do have a laptop PC, car, and I'm not in an 'at risk' group. Oh - and I don't have a job to go to :smile:

    I'm unclear as to why if the NHS are going to get - in the words of Matt Hancock - "Whatever it takes" they'd need volunteers.

    Well we’ve had a volunteer program for ages, they are expanding it as well as the staffing.
  • jay_emmjay_emm Kerygmania Host
    edited March 2020
    If there were someone competent to do the final organising, it sounds the ideal solution.

    Closed Businesses we'll look after your staff now
    Staff we'll look after your wages
    Needy Businesses/NHS we'll provide staff now (for a cut in the case of business)

    Some businesses did that on a small scale, others just left the indivuals to do it (which just creates a lot of paperwork) and there would be serious moral and practical issues with what is effectively an extremely unfair conscription, including a lack of vetting or training.
  • If someone in the UK on here signs up for the new NHS volunteer role, I'd appreciate a post on here as to whether one needs a smart phone. I don't have one, but I do have a laptop PC, car, and I'm not in an 'at risk' group. Oh - and I don't have a job to go to :smile:

    I'm unclear as to why if the NHS are going to get - in the words of Matt Hancock - "Whatever it takes" they'd need volunteers.

    Well we’ve had a volunteer program for ages, they are expanding it as well as the staffing.

    Yes, I understand that -- it was a somewhat leading question.
  • If someone in the UK on here signs up for the new NHS volunteer role, I'd appreciate a post on here as to whether one needs a smart phone. I don't have one, but I do have a laptop PC, car, and I'm not in an 'at risk' group. Oh - and I don't have a job to go to :smile:

    Alright, I'm a bit further in with this. You do need a smart phone, to pick up jobs through the day and let a controller know if you're available / that you're on a job etc. I'm a bit freaked out with the learning curve required to operate my daughter's phone - but hey, I used to be clever, right?

  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    I believe in you :)
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    I'd do it, but I still have deadlines. Two of them, and these aren't the best conditions to make art.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    New modelling:

    1. Supports the importance of distancing.

    2. Suggests that closing schools has little effect.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144
  • I believe in you :)

    You're a walley :smile: These stories are encouraging, for those thinking about 'doing something'. Worth mentioning that the new NHS volunteer effort includes a category for 'phone-checking on people at risk' - I guess to provide a useful outlet for lots of older folks who are used to volunteering in churches and charity shops, and who might welcome a safe way to contribute.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    I listened to part of the Trump daily briefing today. It seems around 80% of the USA's increase these past few days has been from the New York City area. I know the state of Washington's rate of increase has slowed considerably.

    They are telling people leaving NYC they will need to quarantine for 14 days.

    Our county has recorded its first two cases--young people bringing the virus back into the community, but the County Health District is taking a strict Identity, Isolate and trace policy, very much like South Korea's approach.

    45 hopes to start lifting restrictions by Easter, but there is a lot of pushback to that idea.

    The good news is Italy's curve seems to be flattening out.
  • The update by Financial Times, see the 3rd graph "Country by Country: how corona virus case trajectories compare" , does not show flattening of the curve for America: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest . Your state is looking much better. New York is scary.

    They used GIS info from here to make their graphs: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    Clicking on any of our countries is not reassuring, and I'm hoping that's a "yet". Worth exploring if you can tolerate data that may upset your sleep.
  • TukaiTukai Shipmate
    orfeo wrote: »
    The latest restrictions have just been announced in Australia. Some more types of businesses required to shut down. Weddings are restricted to the 5 necessary people - the couple, the celebrant and 2 witnesses. Funerals restricted to 10 people.

    Schools not shut. We will never hear the end of fucking schools no matter how many times the Chief Medical Officer explains the weighing up that is informing the decision to not shut them.

    You could have fooled me about the schools, @orfeo. I live in the same "state" of Australia as you and all the schools here are having "pupil free days" until the Easter holidays are due to start. Schoolkids are supposed to be at home , with teachers (who are still "at work") working out how to provide resources for them, including online.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    I did not say the American curve was flattening. I did say the Italian curve is improving.
  • edited March 2020
    I was just able to congratulate a friend who lives in Blackburn, that within England his 'res.' is now only surpassed in 'des.' by Hull. Spot where people don't go skiing :smile: While we're on with the schadenfreude and fate-tempting, the Guardian has been speculating what the middle classes are going to make of claiming Universal Credit. Radio 4 had some (skilled) freelance musicians on last night; Tebbit's advice to redundant (skilled) steelworkers, miners and textile workers was not mentioned, though perhaps 'getting on one's bike' is futile while social distancing regulations are in force.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    I did not say the American curve was flattening. I did say the Italian curve is improving.
    I thought Trump had said the US curve was flattening, which is why he'd claimed that the country could open up for Easter. I read the subsequent comment about the US curve flattening in that light (you'd mentioned his briefing, but nothing about the US curve flattening).

    Personally, I'm surprised you're wasting your time listening to the briefings Trump is giving. If you want to listen to fiction there's a thread here on the Ship where you could ask for audiobook recommendations.
  • Baptist TrainfanBaptist Trainfan Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    I found this article interesting - though some will probably say that it is typical European anti-Trump rhetoric. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012049
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    Tukai wrote: »
    orfeo wrote: »
    The latest restrictions have just been announced in Australia. Some more types of businesses required to shut down. Weddings are restricted to the 5 necessary people - the couple, the celebrant and 2 witnesses. Funerals restricted to 10 people.

    Schools not shut. We will never hear the end of fucking schools no matter how many times the Chief Medical Officer explains the weighing up that is informing the decision to not shut them.

    You could have fooled me about the schools, @orfeo. I live in the same "state" of Australia as you and all the schools here are having "pupil free days" until the Easter holidays are due to start. Schoolkids are supposed to be at home , with teachers (who are still "at work") working out how to provide resources for them, including online.

    I repeat, we will never hear the end of the schools. But there is no national decision to shut them.

    The whole topic is a complete clusterfuck. Not least because people either can't or simply won't understand the very rational but counterintuitive reasons why keeping schools open could actually be the better option.

    People are so used to thinking of how germs spread in schools that they never ask the question about how germs get into schools in the first place, which is a necessary precondition for them spreading in schools. A school socially isolates a group of people away from the general community for many hours of the day. We have fences and everything.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    @orfeo the thing is that there is a social and political component in this. From a nice orderly drawing-board planning point of view it is indeed a clusterfuck but that is how our societies evolve, especially the less authoritarian ones. It's compromise and negotiation and cockup and serendipity and muddling through.

    Some responses will probably be better in overall absolute terms, and some responses are fairly clearly worse, because they contribute unhelpfully to the social and political aspects as well as the health ones, but they are all compromises.
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