As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.
The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.
As a result, until Wednesday the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration only allowed those state labs to use the test — a decision with potentially significant consequences. The lack of a reliable test prevented local officials from taking a crucial first step in coping with a possible outbreak — “surveillance testing” of hundreds of people in possible hotspots. Epidemiologists in other countries have used this sort of testing to track the spread of the disease before large numbers of people turn up at hospitals.
This story is based on interviews with state and local public health officials and scientists across the country, which, taken together, describe a frustrating, bewildering bureaucratic process that seemed at odds with the urgency of the growing threat. The CDC and Vice President Mike Pence’s office, which is coordinating the government’s response to the virus, did not respond to questions for this story. It’s unclear who in the government originally made the decision to design a more complicated test, or to depart from the WHO guidance.
“We’re weeks behind because we had this problem,” said Scott Becker, chief executive officer of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents 100 state and local public laboratories. “We’re usually up-front and center and ready.”
So given what we know about the players involved, is this just a basic fuckup traceable to general Republican contempt for expertise, or did someone with political connections try to leverage a patent for their company out of this mess? Or some combination of the two?
I think it's worth remembering that it's entirely possible to fuck things up even without Republican foolishness or knavery.
It certainly did not help when tRump fired his Pandemic Response Team and cut back on CDC funding as a way to make up for his bloated federal deficit.
The Trump Team are blaming the Democrats and the media for making up this pandemic now.
BTW, what was Pence doing campaigning in Florida today? Certainly does not seem he is taking this seriously.
On personal responses, there’s nothing wrong with having a stockpile.
I have had a big one since the rumours/threat of a no-deal Brexshit.
A stockpile prevents panic buying. You feel safe in the knowledge that your family can get by for a couple of weeks without shopping. I rotate my stock - so, when I buy (eg) a packet of bread flour I use one of the out of my stockpile.
I‘m about to buy a wind up radio and phone charger. Mr Boogs was away one time when our power went off for three days (substation problem). I have battery packs which lasted fine for my phone and radio - but it would be good to know I can use the phone and radio indefinitely .
I also have a ‘grab bag’ with spare knickers, socks, jeans, baby wipes, soap etc in case of suddenly having to evacuate. I’ve had the grab bag since I was a deputy headteacher and we had a gas leak - the whole school had to leave the building instantly. It taught us a lot about preparedness and we changed many of our policies.
I started a Brexit no-deal domesday stash ages ago. Should it now be converted to a coronavirus domesday stash, or should I buy additional extra things each week?
You shouldn't need your Brexit no-deal stash until the end of the year. If you need to use it in the next couple of months because of coronavirus then there should be time to restock for the next national disaster.
There's a confirmed case in my city now. In a separate development, in Oise north of Paris, all public meetings, including acts of worship, are now banned until further notice. Time to start engaging in some agile thinking about churches' responses, in terms of health, mission, theology... fast.
Me, too, AuthorDiva. Mostly at home, and I'm concerned. But, with all the horrible stuff in the US and the wider world (not just corona), I've gotten to a place with a certain amount of numbness. So I don't really panic much about anything, unless I really work at it!
I do have a lot of health problems, including with my immune system (CFIDS/CFS/ME). Whenever I go out, I tend to pick up whatever's going around. I'm occasionally checking news on what to do about corona virus, and trying to be prepared without freaking out.
My concern is that my insurance will not let me refill my blood pressure meds until I am down to 5 tablets. If we are to stay at home this can be a problem. So I have been saving them up for several months but at the moment only have six extra. I was doing this because we live in a wild fire area and may need to stay out of town in the summer.
There's a confirmed case in my city now. In a separate development, in Oise north of Paris, all public meetings, including acts of worship, are now banned until further notice. Time to start engaging in some agile thinking about churches' responses, in terms of health, mission, theology... fast.
I have a hard time seeing what difference churches are going to make in most places in developed western countries. They didn't as far as I know make a difference during the 1918 influenza pandemic.
This is incredibly tiny, but in 2009 our church called / made home visits to be sure that nobody was going hungry, uncared for, etc because the whole family was too stricken to take care of one another. So, basically the soup and gatorade run.
We thought of it because of family stories of an earlier pandemic where both parents were prostrate and the toddlers were running wild.
Those with young children would do well to be sure there is accessible food they can get for themselves in such a case, even if they're four and can only open a box of crackers (until this, too, passes, and the parent(s) are back in comission).
@Ruth a religious group of some kind is a major hotspot of the outbreak in South Korea.
In my understanding, the policy in France is one of "social distancing", aimed both at minimising physical contact between people and mingling of people who wouldn't otherwise mingle*. Last week the French population as a whole was already asked to refrain from shaking hands and the traditional bise kiss greeting.
The difference social distancing might make is to slow the speed at which the virus propagates ("flattening the curve"): this would be preferable to a spike in that it would spread the load to be borne by health systems, help buy time to develop responses, and avoid so many people being ill at the same time.
Churches are of course only one of the banned gatherings in Oise. Cinemas, markets, wedding celebrations, etc. are also on the list. It remains to be seen how effective any of this is, but if it is enforced where I am it will demand a thought-out response by churches. Our place has long had "wee cuppies"; now, we're considering if we can make any improvements in hygiene terms to how we share the bread, and wondering how to cope with a meeting ban will be on our leadership agenda this week.
==
* (In the last two or three weeks, countries people in my church have been to, or from which we have had visitors, include the UK, the USA (San Francisco and Boise), Singapore and Romania, and we are not a large church).
Good. I was wondering if a church might do something like that.
I'm having trouble imagining anybody else who would do that, at least outside of one's own family and close friends. Which is sad.
I do believe that there are historical examples of this sort of thing as well. I believe the Luthers lost a child to plague because they refused to abandon their parishioners, though they had access to a safer place in the country.
I do believe that there are historical examples of this sort of thing as well. I believe the Luthers lost a child to plague because they refused to abandon their parishioners, though they had access to a safer place in the country.
In my understanding, every time a prison chaplain goes into jail here now, they run the risk of not getting back out: if a coronavirus case is suspected while they're inside, the whole place will go into lockdown, and if it's confirmed, be confined, like the cruise ship off Japan. In my prison, there are currently over 200 people on mattresses on the floor, including some cells designed for 2 people with 4 in them. Decisions decisions...
I was kind of hoping that the coronavirus would not be political, even in the USA. But I see that has lasted about a nano-second. I would have said that we should wait and see before hacking into Pence, but fuck that.
If he didn’t close the borders to Italians then closing them to Iranians would make no difference whatever.
But he will spin it to reflect well on himself come what may. And people will believe him. How long do emperors be clothes last? Do they wear out eventually?
I was kind of hoping that the coronavirus would not be political, even in the USA. But I see that has lasted about a nano-second. I would have said that we should wait and see before hacking into Pence, but fuck that.
If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.
The North East Man flew Heathrow to Aberdeen yesterday and about 10% of the passengers were wearing face masks. I don't think I've ever seen someone in a facemask at Aberdeen airport before.
I was kind of hoping that the coronavirus would not be political, even in the USA. But I see that has lasted about a nano-second. I would have said that we should wait and see before hacking into Pence, but fuck that.
Goven the mindnumbing incompetence of those running the idiocracies in the west, they are bound to want to make themselves important in any situation like this.
Personally, I am far more interested in truth than what the politicians say.
The North East Man flew Heathrow to Aberdeen yesterday and about 10% of the passengers were wearing face masks. I don't think I've ever seen someone in a facemask at Aberdeen airport before.
Ahhh, I have memories of Aberdeen - wet memories, but also memories of a very pretty town. One day we will be back to catch a boat to Skara Brae (my first attempt at the spelling was Scabra Bray).
I was kind of hoping that the coronavirus would not be political, even in the USA. But I see that has lasted about a nano-second. I would have said that we should wait and see before hacking into Pence, but fuck that.
Given the mindnumbing incompetence of those running the idiocracies in the west, they are bound to want to make themselves important in any situation like this.
Personally, I am far more interested in truth than what the politicians say.
This (and thank you @Schroedingers Cat for the word 'idiocracies' - which describes perfectly the governments of the US and the UK).
It was announced in the cathedral today that we would be receiving communion in one kind only from today. We still all shared the peace though, following which a number of people received the host with the same hand. So not sure how much good it will do.
I was kind of hoping that the coronavirus would not be political, even in the USA. But I see that has lasted about a nano-second. I would have said that we should wait and see before hacking into Pence, but fuck that.
If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.
But your innocent citizens don't deserve it. If Trump could die from the virus and nobody else, that would be one thing. But that's not what's going to happen.
The stock piling discussion is interesting. From the perspective of other places in the world, I think people in our sparsely populated, cold climate stockpile by default. People shop for food once every 1-2 weeks. I suspect we could could live on dry goods and tinned things after fresh things ran out for another week at least.
It's common for people to have a chest freezer in their basement and to fill it up in the fall or with things on sale.
I was kind of hoping that the coronavirus would not be political, even in the USA. But I see that has lasted about a nano-second. I would have said that we should wait and see before hacking into Pence, but fuck that.
If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.
But your innocent citizens don't deserve it. If Trump could die from the virus and nobody else, that would be one thing. But that's not what's going to happen.
I was referring to the "political" criticism that Simon Toad was bemoaning, not to any adverse consequences for victims of Pence's ineptitude. Though there would be a certain rough justice to the MAGAhats getting struck down it would not be something to celebrate.
It was my impression the communion portion was a train wreck today. During the passing of the peace, all the communion assistants left the sanctuary to wash their hands, but one of the young boys helping with communion was seen rubbing his hands on his pants as he came back in and the last person to come back in had to close the sanctuary door (unsanitary) as she came back in.
Then, after worship, for fellowship, there was a bunch of finger foods and people were all touching them with their hands.
The subversive person in me sent the following message to the pastor this afternoon.
NIEL DIAMOND: Hands,
CDC: Yes, wash them for at least 20 seconds.
NIEL DIAMOND: Touching Hands.
CDC: No, don't do that.
NIEL DIAMOND: Reaching out,
CDC: Avoiding that too.
NIEL DIAMOND: Touching me,
CDC: Oh, hell,
NEIL DIAMOND: Touching you.
CDC: Houston, we're doomed.
Ah yes, first two deaths in the United States, right here in beautiful western Washington State (Upper Left USA). Both in King County (next county north of me) but as far as we know unrelated at the human level, but at the virus level the strains/mutations are so close as to be very closely related.
Some predictions that the virus will spread "widely". I suppose rigorous measures are then inevitable, school closures, sports meetings off, travel restrictions, etc. But it's unpredictable. What chance now for the Olympics?
Some predictions that the virus will spread "widely". I suppose rigorous measures are then inevitable, school closures, sports meetings off, travel restrictions, etc. But it's unpredictable. What chance now for the Olympics?
It’s probably too early to say.
This may be a ‘woosh through and burn out’ virus or it may be one, like flu, that we are stuck with. 🤔
The scaremongering Meeja (in the shape of the Daily Wail etc., and from whose blaring headlines I generally avert my gaze when in the supermarket) are saying 'We'll lock down cities...!!!', and so on.
Who's this 'We'? Boris & Co.? I think not - they'll all be in their Bunker somewhere, or the Cayman Islands...
Have we enough Police and Army to 'lock down' one city, let alone several? Who is going to supervise the lock-down, and will people take any notice?
At least the PM’s statement today after the cobra meeting made sense.
“We have also agreed a plan so that if and when it starts to spread, as I'm afraid it looks likely it will, we are in a position to take the steps necessary to... contain the spread of the disease as far as we can, and to protect the most vulnerable."
tRump’s response was plainly idiotic - he accused Democrats of “fearmongering” over the coronavirus outbreak while his decisions have “saved many lives”.
Also - tRump seems to be completely unable to understand that personal health and individual wellbeing are inextricably linked to public health and social wellbeing.
Public health and social wellbeing helps everyone. If the poor are healthy and happy then the rich and super rich are safer and less fearful.
It’s simple - why does he refuse to understand it?
Because it's simple. He doesn't understand simple - the word has two syllables...
Meanwhile, here in the Sad Southlands, I've asked FatherInCharge if he might like to add to our precautions at Mass by asking peeps NOT to shake hands at The Peace.
We could, instead, offer each other a slight bow (perhaps with the hands together - 'namaste'?), but still saying 'Peace be with you', or, even (Shock! Horror!) not exchanging The Peace AT ALL.
Just like in 1662 Prayer Book times...
We're already withholding the chalice, as I've said before, and thereby eliminated intinction (practised by one or two of our regulars).
I can't see how we could do more. Our little congregation tends to spread itself comfortably around the church, so they're not as packed together as they would be (say) on a bus...or is Boris planning to lock-down the buses as well?
Scottish chief health officer saying that 80% of population could catch the virus, under worst case scenario. She's getting her retaliation in early. She added, "this might not happen".
Scottish chief health officer saying that 80% of population could catch the virus, under worst case scenario. She's getting her retaliation in early. She added, "this might not happen".
Well, COVID-19 is apparently very contagious. It doesn't have the two main "brakes" that impede influenza: people who have previously had a similar strain of the disease and people who have had the flu shot. Of course contagiousness isn't some fixed natural constant built into the disease; a lot of it depends on human actions. Strict quarantine and sanitary actions can impede contagion. For example, when first identified SARS (also a form of coronavirus) had an R0 of 3 (meaning that one infected person would spread it to three others, on average). After severe containment was implemented R0 went to about 0.04, which is why there hasn't been a case of SARS since 2004.
Scottish chief health officer saying that 80% of population could catch the virus, under worst case scenario. She's getting her retaliation in early. She added, "this might not happen".
Well, yes - though the Scottish estimate sounds more like Trumpian scaremongering (the virus will affect everyone who wants independence!!!!!!!).
But it is doubtless wise NOT to play it down, I agree.
Well yeah. When you're offering something described as the "worst case scenario" you're pretty clearly signaling that you you're not playing it down, that the scenario you're outlining is the worst plausible case. Hence the name.
But cheer up, Boris is being helpful, in suggesting that singing Happy Birthday twice, while washing your hands, is good practice. I prefer Nelly the Nun.
And there's value in gaming out alternate scenarios. This twitter thread analogizes the Trump administration*'s failures in COVID-19 surveillance testing to the Bush II administration's skewing of WMD intelligence; desiring a specific result so much alternatives are ignored or neglected.
Recall how, in the run-up to the Iraq war, the White House signaled preferred policy outcome so heavily that it skewed the analysis and advice it received.
Can see similar alignment b/w preferences Trump and his team were signaling, and strategic posture of his crisis managers.
Trump wanted to calm markets, avoid threats to his re-elex, and keep the disease out of the country.
He and his team made those preferences very clear. And got angry at those who deviated.
That inevitably colored - both overtly and subtly - the strategic emphasis of the crisis task force.
They operated from presumptions that containment was possible, the risk to the US was low, and transmission was not happening here yet. Repeated those things like a mantra.
And those assumptions set the frame for the testing failures.
The key question is not "why didn't CDC's test kits work?"
It's "why were flawed CDC test kits allowed to bottleneck all US testing capacity when alternatives were available?"
<snip>
So by the logic of the assumptions the Task Force was making, and signalling to the public, the USG's posture seemed rational.
If you think the biggest present danger is introduction of cases from overseas, you focus on that. And so they did.
The core emphasis of policy was on keeping it out - travel controls, screening, traveler quarantine. And finite testing capacity was targeted at that.
Those assumptions and signals reflected POTUS' clear preference, and the process' failure to question it.
And sadly, as a result of those assumptions, they squandered the weeks of delayed spread that the travel controls may have bought us.
Because rather than scale up surveillance and prepare the health system for community spread, all emphasis went into containment.
The core of policy became a self-licking ice cream cone: we're not seeing community spread yet so we don't need to aggressively test for it, and anyone who is saying we do is being alarmist. The situation is under control; the risk to the public is low.
The whole thing is worth reading, and it's a twitter thread so it's not that long.
Amazing stuff on that Twitter thread. It's as if the administration convinced itself that it's not happening here, therefore no need to look for it. Then Trump blames the Democrats for project fear.
Comments
It certainly did not help when tRump fired his Pandemic Response Team and cut back on CDC funding as a way to make up for his bloated federal deficit.
The Trump Team are blaming the Democrats and the media for making up this pandemic now.
BTW, what was Pence doing campaigning in Florida today? Certainly does not seem he is taking this seriously.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-emergency-laws-health-safety-boris-johnson-uk-latest-a9366031.html
I have had a big one since the rumours/threat of a no-deal Brexshit.
A stockpile prevents panic buying. You feel safe in the knowledge that your family can get by for a couple of weeks without shopping. I rotate my stock - so, when I buy (eg) a packet of bread flour I use one of the out of my stockpile.
I‘m about to buy a wind up radio and phone charger. Mr Boogs was away one time when our power went off for three days (substation problem). I have battery packs which lasted fine for my phone and radio - but it would be good to know I can use the phone and radio indefinitely .
I also have a ‘grab bag’ with spare knickers, socks, jeans, baby wipes, soap etc in case of suddenly having to evacuate. I’ve had the grab bag since I was a deputy headteacher and we had a gas leak - the whole school had to leave the building instantly. It taught us a lot about preparedness and we changed many of our policies.
Being prepared is the opposite of panicking imo.
I do have a lot of health problems, including with my immune system (CFIDS/CFS/ME). Whenever I go out, I tend to pick up whatever's going around. I'm occasionally checking news on what to do about corona virus, and trying to be prepared without freaking out.
I have a hard time seeing what difference churches are going to make in most places in developed western countries. They didn't as far as I know make a difference during the 1918 influenza pandemic.
We thought of it because of family stories of an earlier pandemic where both parents were prostrate and the toddlers were running wild.
Those with young children would do well to be sure there is accessible food they can get for themselves in such a case, even if they're four and can only open a box of crackers (until this, too, passes, and the parent(s) are back in comission).
Good. I was wondering if a church might do something like that.
In my understanding, the policy in France is one of "social distancing", aimed both at minimising physical contact between people and mingling of people who wouldn't otherwise mingle*. Last week the French population as a whole was already asked to refrain from shaking hands and the traditional bise kiss greeting.
The difference social distancing might make is to slow the speed at which the virus propagates ("flattening the curve"): this would be preferable to a spike in that it would spread the load to be borne by health systems, help buy time to develop responses, and avoid so many people being ill at the same time.
Churches are of course only one of the banned gatherings in Oise. Cinemas, markets, wedding celebrations, etc. are also on the list. It remains to be seen how effective any of this is, but if it is enforced where I am it will demand a thought-out response by churches. Our place has long had "wee cuppies"; now, we're considering if we can make any improvements in hygiene terms to how we share the bread, and wondering how to cope with a meeting ban will be on our leadership agenda this week.
==
* (In the last two or three weeks, countries people in my church have been to, or from which we have had visitors, include the UK, the USA (San Francisco and Boise), Singapore and Romania, and we are not a large church).
I'm having trouble imagining anybody else who would do that, at least outside of one's own family and close friends. Which is sad.
I do believe that there are historical examples of this sort of thing as well. I believe the Luthers lost a child to plague because they refused to abandon their parishioners, though they had access to a safer place in the country.
But he will spin it to reflect well on himself come what may. And people will believe him. How long do emperors be clothes last? Do they wear out eventually?
If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.
Goven the mindnumbing incompetence of those running the idiocracies in the west, they are bound to want to make themselves important in any situation like this.
Personally, I am far more interested in truth than what the politicians say.
Ahhh, I have memories of Aberdeen - wet memories, but also memories of a very pretty town. One day we will be back to catch a boat to Skara Brae (my first attempt at the spelling was Scabra Bray).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This (and thank you @Schroedingers Cat for the word 'idiocracies' - which describes perfectly the governments of the US and the UK).
But your innocent citizens don't deserve it. If Trump could die from the virus and nobody else, that would be one thing. But that's not what's going to happen.
It's common for people to have a chest freezer in their basement and to fill it up in the fall or with things on sale.
I was referring to the "political" criticism that Simon Toad was bemoaning, not to any adverse consequences for victims of Pence's ineptitude. Though there would be a certain rough justice to the MAGAhats getting struck down it would not be something to celebrate.
Then, after worship, for fellowship, there was a bunch of finger foods and people were all touching them with their hands.
The subversive person in me sent the following message to the pastor this afternoon.
NIEL DIAMOND: Hands,
CDC: Yes, wash them for at least 20 seconds.
NIEL DIAMOND: Touching Hands.
CDC: No, don't do that.
NIEL DIAMOND: Reaching out,
CDC: Avoiding that too.
NIEL DIAMOND: Touching me,
CDC: Oh, hell,
NEIL DIAMOND: Touching you.
CDC: Houston, we're doomed.
I wonder what he thought of it.
This also reminds me of the famous 'double-dipping' scene in Seinfeld.
It’s probably too early to say.
This may be a ‘woosh through and burn out’ virus or it may be one, like flu, that we are stuck with. 🤔
Who's this 'We'? Boris & Co.? I think not - they'll all be in their Bunker somewhere, or the Cayman Islands...
Have we enough Police and Army to 'lock down' one city, let alone several? Who is going to supervise the lock-down, and will people take any notice?
“We have also agreed a plan so that if and when it starts to spread, as I'm afraid it looks likely it will, we are in a position to take the steps necessary to... contain the spread of the disease as far as we can, and to protect the most vulnerable."
tRump’s response was plainly idiotic - he accused Democrats of “fearmongering” over the coronavirus outbreak while his decisions have “saved many lives”.
Nutter. 😤🤬
Public health and social wellbeing helps everyone. If the poor are healthy and happy then the rich and super rich are safer and less fearful.
It’s simple - why does he refuse to understand it?
Meanwhile, here in the Sad Southlands, I've asked FatherInCharge if he might like to add to our precautions at Mass by asking peeps NOT to shake hands at The Peace.
We could, instead, offer each other a slight bow (perhaps with the hands together - 'namaste'?), but still saying 'Peace be with you', or, even (Shock! Horror!) not exchanging The Peace AT ALL.
Just like in 1662 Prayer Book times...
We're already withholding the chalice, as I've said before, and thereby eliminated intinction (practised by one or two of our regulars).
I can't see how we could do more. Our little congregation tends to spread itself comfortably around the church, so they're not as packed together as they would be (say) on a bus...or is Boris planning to lock-down the buses as well?
I don't know why these Scottish estimates are so high. No doubt they don't want to play it down. Computer modelling also?
Well, COVID-19 is apparently very contagious. It doesn't have the two main "brakes" that impede influenza: people who have previously had a similar strain of the disease and people who have had the flu shot. Of course contagiousness isn't some fixed natural constant built into the disease; a lot of it depends on human actions. Strict quarantine and sanitary actions can impede contagion. For example, when first identified SARS (also a form of coronavirus) had an R0 of 3 (meaning that one infected person would spread it to three others, on average). After severe containment was implemented R0 went to about 0.04, which is why there hasn't been a case of SARS since 2004.
But it is doubtless wise NOT to play it down, I agree.
Well yeah. When you're offering something described as the "worst case scenario" you're pretty clearly signaling that you you're not playing it down, that the scenario you're outlining is the worst plausible case. Hence the name.
The whole thing is worth reading, and it's a twitter thread so it's not that long.