X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1. Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries eighteen of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
No countries have joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
This, I presume, does not include yet more deaths at home, or in care homes etc.
Christe eleison.
Because those who die at home, or in a care setting, don't count as 'people'.
The FT estimated, using actual statistics, the death toll to be 41,000, some time last week. When this first wave is over, we'll be lucky to get in under 100k.
The Scottish figures include deaths in care homes, at home and one death in an "other institution" ( a prison AIU) so those care home deaths will be included in the UK figures.
Care home and other deaths are included in English numbers on a Tuesday in arrears by the ONS, but there are concerns that these figures are inaccurate and understated. The last figures released on 21 April showed a tripling of deaths in care homes to 10 April (the date to which the data was compiled and those figures are usually an average of 11 days out of date). (Guardian link). Those figures do not match those reported by the care homes (link). Partly because the question as to whether COVID-19 was a cause of death in care homes wasn't asked until 9 April. The FT estimated that the real figure is double the official ONS figures at 41,000 on 21 April (when the ONS figures were released) (FT link)
From the FT article, the death rate for the time of year has shown a massive jump
The ONS data showed that deaths registered in the week ending April 10 were 75 per cent above normal in England and Wales, the highest level for more than 20 years.
There were 18,516 deaths registered during that period compared with the most recent five-year average of 10,520 for the same week of the year. There were similar patterns in Scotland and Northern Ireland
This explains why the English figures are regarded with caution by many.
The UK is a complete basketcase at this moment. We are the country that other countries point to and thank God they don't live here. We are busy slaughtering our way through our own population and not so much raising a squeak of protest. At this point, less than 100k would be a surprise.
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
What's in a number? AFZ argued earlier that the trend lines for deaths in residential care homes may well follow those for hospital deaths.
And it is the trend lines that will influence policy. What relaxation of policy might there be re residential care? I would think none for the foreseeable future. Even if there is some relaxation in other areas. There is a clear need also to ensure better levels of PPE for care workers. So I think residential care will be subject to specific policy guidance re both isolation and protection.
I think the FT article may have it right. And the ONS stats will shed further light on the overall death rate through time. The hospital figures are horrifying on their own.
The UK is a complete basketcase at this moment. We are the country that other countries point to and thank God they don't live here. We are busy slaughtering our way through our own population and not so much raising a squeak of protest. At this point, less than 100k would be a surprise.
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
I suppose the Tory media will focus on the return of Boris as a miracle, and play down the death total. I don't know how much longer this can be maintained, as we are sliding into carnage. Well, it's only the old who are dying.
"Caution" = "Soviet levels of misinformation"
At this point, less than 100k would be a surprise.
And yet they are getting away with it, it's happening here.
How do you get that number? ATM I would be surprised at under 60k or over 80k (in this wave) without yet another factor of government callousness (either future or in suppressed facts).
The UK is a complete basketcase at this moment. We are the country that other countries point to and thank God they don't live here. We are busy slaughtering our way through our own population and not so much raising a squeak of protest. At this point, less than 100k would be a surprise.
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
I suppose the Tory media will focus on the return of Boris as a miracle, and play down the death total. I don't know how much longer this can be maintained, as we are sliding into carnage. Well, it's only the old who are dying.
I've got idiot relatives sharing memes saying the press should stop criticising and that we should all support the government. Given the track record of this government that's a recipe for 100k being a low-ball estimate.
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
I've been trying to find comparisons that were doing the rounds on Facebook last week, for Ireland north and south of the border. Basically, these were pointing out the similarities of both Ireland and Northern Ireland in terms of population density, size of urban areas, culture, number of ICU beds per 100,000 population etc, even the dates of first recorded coronovirus cases were similar. But, the death rate in NI is about twice that in Ireland - the difference being the actions of the respective governments. This is possibly the best comparison we can make to judge how much better the UK government response could have been, and if it continues then we will be in the position to say that the UK government has killed 10s of thousands of people (approx. half of the final death toll need not have died had the government acted in a more reasonable manner). But, in our f*cked up country it won't make any difference - "the government that killed 50,000 people" will have no more impact on the voters or changing the direction the government is taking than the thousands killed by their cutting of welfare.
I think the Republic has been using testing and tracing from the beginning, although you can't label that on its own as the cause of the lower death rate, probably multiple factors. But Boris is going to need more than Latin tags to solve this.
Meanwhile, close to our house the common is covered in sunbathers, joggers charge past me exhaling like defunct steam engines, and the traffic builds up on the roads. What lockdown?
Traffic here has been significantly less than normal. Still have some people driving to work, and I can see how taking the car out once a week to do a family grocery shop is probably easier (and potentially better) than walking to the shop 3-4 times a week (there being a limit to how many bags of groceries you can carry home). So, there will be some traffic.
But, there certainly needs to be further enforcement of the current restrictions if there's any chance of easing them off anytime soon. That would remove the sunbathers, make the joggers think about when they go out so that they're not all out at once and struggle to keep >2m distance from others, and reduce car use to just those few essential trips.
More or Less does very good analysis on what to make of the various statistics. There is the issue of population density, and also our normal pre pandemic levels of traffic and travel inside and outside the country. (E.g. About 200,000 people a day usually pass through Heathrow.)
I think in London, there has been fraying at the edges of the lockdown. On the other hand, hospital cases are going down.
Well yes, but a fraying of the lockdown won't show in a rise in hospital admissions for at least a week or two. The lag effects in this thing are an absolute bugger.
One of the comparisons was testing rate, about twice the number of tests per 100,000 population in Ireland compared to NI (and, the UK as a whole).
You might measure it in people tested per 100,000 of population, but the testing kits themselves are bought and paid for in absolute numbers. Ireland has a significantly smaller population and thus doesn’t have to source and fund anywhere near as many kits in order to look better than the UK.
One of the comparisons was testing rate, about twice the number of tests per 100,000 population in Ireland compared to NI (and, the UK as a whole).
You might measure it in people tested per 100,000 of population, but the testing kits themselves are bought and paid for in absolute numbers. Ireland has a significantly smaller population and thus doesn’t have to source and fund anywhere near as many kits in order to look better than the UK.
But equally they have less money so can be outbid by the bigger players and they have less domestic production capacity.
Comparisons between nations without accounting for relative size are meaningless. You need to find someway to normalize the figures. Maybe we should do that by relative wealth, how much money is available to spend on buying test kits ... which, unsurprisingly, will correlate to population for similar economies (tax revenues are not far off the same per person assuming no big difference in average incomes).
I think in London, there has been fraying at the edges of the lockdown. On the other hand, hospital cases are going down.
People are getting to the limit of how much isolation they can take. Two more weeks of it and I think there will be even more people ignoring the requirements, unless the police start actually arresting or fining people.
Of course, if that does happen there could easily be even worse civil unrest, possibly even rioting. There are a lot of very bored people just itching for any excuse to throw off the shackles...
joggers charge past me exhaling like defunct steam engines
On Senior Day at the local supermarket, there's an old geezer who's always first in line (he gets there an hour early) who can't keep his mouth shut -- prattling away about the Good Old Days Back East to anyone within earshot. "Sir," I feel like saying, "please don't make me inhale your exhaust." Instead, I've found that if I get there 15 minutes after opening time (rather than one hour before), the line has completely vanished and the store is still not crowded -- I can easily get everything on my list.
I think in London, there has been fraying at the edges of the lockdown. On the other hand, hospital cases are going down.
People are getting to the limit of how much isolation they can take. Two more weeks of it and I think there will be even more people ignoring the requirements, unless the police start actually arresting or fining people.
Of course, if that does happen there could easily be even worse civil unrest, possibly even rioting. There are a lot of very bored people just itching for any excuse to throw off the shackles...
Well I hope you're wrong or that 20,000 is going to be just a foretaste.
They just released a Covid-19 tracking app in Australia, which I have downloaded to my phone. It seems like they have thought the privacy and security aspects through and I've already given my DNA away to Ancestry.com and am tracked by Google, Facebook, the local public transport system and who knows who else plus security cameras everywhere so I'm not concerned about losing more privacy. Maybe I should be, but I'm not. Let's hope it works well and does what it is supposed to.
Without wishing to create a basket case league (!) I would rather be here in Norfolk than anywhere in the USA.
Our issues are late lockdown and struggling to get PPE We were in no position to emulate the German response because of underinvestment in health care and comparative under preparedness for a pandemic.
The UK is a complete basketcase at this moment. We are the country that other countries point to and thank God they don't live here. We are busy slaughtering our way through our own population and not so much raising a squeak of protest. At this point, less than 100k would be a surprise.
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
Never mind how we got here. 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. What would you do different now, if you were the government? What policies would you change now? What guidance would you change now? What steps would you take to improve the short and long term?
I would not want to be starting from here. But here is where we are. A complete change of government, medical and scientific advisers would not change that. I see no silver bullets. What do you see?
London (and similar cities), if they aren't aiming for lockdown to fail,will need the most thought.
Here in a midsized town, and with a 30% full work, I'd really appreciate 3 gratuitous shops and a social (and obviously full normality would be better) but can carry on.
More rural areas don't get the supermarket benefits, urban areas get hammered in lots of ways.
I think in London, there has been fraying at the edges of the lockdown. On the other hand, hospital cases are going down.
People are getting to the limit of how much isolation they can take. Two more weeks of it and I think there will be even more people ignoring the requirements, unless the police start actually arresting or fining people.
Of course, if that does happen there could easily be even worse civil unrest, possibly even rioting. There are a lot of very bored people just itching for any excuse to throw off the shackles...
Well I hope you're wrong or that 20,000 is going to be just a foretaste.
20 000 is an hors d'oeuvre for this bloody virus, the entree is yet to come, if Marvin is right. It's ironic that Imperial College warned of 250 000, come on guys, we can make it.
London (and similar cities), if they aren't aiming for lockdown to fail,will need the most thought.
The biggest issue is all the people stuck inside tiny flats with no way of going outside other than for a brief run or shopping trip.
People like me with a nice garden in which to enjoy the sun have it relatively easy, and even then it’s really hard. I have no idea how the less fortunate are managing to stay sane. They must be absolutely champing at the bit to get out.
London (and similar cities), if they aren't aiming for lockdown to fail,will need the most thought.
The biggest issue is all the people stuck inside tiny flats with no way of going outside other than for a brief run or shopping trip.
People like me with a nice garden in which to enjoy the sun have it relatively easy, and even then it’s really hard. I have no idea how the less fortunate are managing to stay sane. They must be absolutely champing at the bit to get out.
A situation that isn't helped by people who have other options ignoring the instructions, eg: by socialising in local parks which are lifelines for those in the tiny flats as places to walk and get that essential brief time outside, risking getting the parks shut down (or, simply making them places which are too busy for social distancing and hence not safe places for that walk).
Plus, of course, every breach of the restrictions will extend the duration of the restrictions for everyone.
Never mind how we got here. 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. What would you do different now, if you were the government? What policies would you change now? What guidance would you change now? What steps would you take to improve the short and long term?
Yeah, every day is a brand new day with no history and we are in a state of constantly looking forward and saying 'Who could have predicted this?'
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
I've been trying to find comparisons that were doing the rounds on Facebook last week, for Ireland north and south of the border. Basically, these were pointing out the similarities of both Ireland and Northern Ireland in terms of population density, size of urban areas, culture, number of ICU beds per 100,000 population etc, even the dates of first recorded coronovirus cases were similar. But, the death rate in NI is about twice that in Ireland
[CITATION NEEDED]
Deaths in Northern Ireland = 294
Deaths in the Republic of Ireland = 1063
(Source for both figures)
Population of Northern Ireland = 1,885,400
Population of the Republic of Ireland = 4,921,500
(Source: Wikipedia, based on 2019 figures)
Death rate in Northern Ireland = 15.6 per 100,000
Death rate in the Republic of Ireland = 21.6 per 100,000
Never mind how we got here. 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. What would you do different now, if you were the government? What policies would you change now? What guidance would you change now? What steps would you take to improve the short and long term?
Yeah, every day is a brand new day with no history and we are in a state of constantly looking forward and saying 'Who could have predicted this?'
I'm not sure whether my sarcasm meter is properly calibrated, but one thought I had fairly early on in this crisis and our collective (non-)reactions to it is that, in accelerated form, it's what's happening with climate change. If there are lessons to be learned in advance planning for near-certain catastrophes in the future, it's in the realm of climate change that we should be learning lessons.
Plus, of course, every breach of the restrictions will extend the duration of the restrictions for everyone.
Given how long restrictions are predicted to be in place even in a best case scenario, there may be many who would think adding a bit more time on to the end of them doesn’t make much practical difference.
Do it for another 12 weeks or do it for another 24 - those numbers don’t impact hugely on how one copes this week.
I suppose an additional 12 weeks might give slower-thinking people time to process the fact that their individual actions really do make a difference to the ultimate overall outcome.
Never mind how we got here. 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. What would you do different now, if you were the government? What policies would you change now? What guidance would you change now? What steps would you take to improve the short and long term?
Yeah, every day is a brand new day with no history and we are in a state of constantly looking forward and saying 'Who could have predicted this?'
Boris tends to wing it on most things, and this was true of covid at first. Of course, he sobered up, but presumably we lost time. Most of the cabinet look second rate, and are relying on Boris to get them through. However, there is no prospect of another government, so we are stuck. Unfortunately, we have a servile press also. Maybe something will turn up, e.g., a useful antiviral, otherwise, we could be in for carnage.
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
I've been trying to find comparisons that were doing the rounds on Facebook last week, for Ireland north and south of the border. Basically, these were pointing out the similarities of both Ireland and Northern Ireland in terms of population density, size of urban areas, culture, number of ICU beds per 100,000 population etc, even the dates of first recorded coronovirus cases were similar. But, the death rate in NI is about twice that in Ireland
[CITATION NEEDED]
Deaths in Northern Ireland = 294
Deaths in the Republic of Ireland = 1063
(Source for both figures)
Population of Northern Ireland = 1,885,400
Population of the Republic of Ireland = 4,921,500
(Source: Wikipedia, based on 2019 figures)
Death rate in Northern Ireland = 15.6 per 100,000
Death rate in the Republic of Ireland = 21.6 per 100,000
OK, finally found it (finding a particular set of posts on Facebook is even harder than searching for a post on the old Ship). My memory was slightly off, this article in the Irish Times said 50% more rather than twice. As of a few days ago, about 110 hospital deaths/million people for NI and about 70 for Ireland. That's just hospital deaths, the BBC article you linked to was total - noting that for NI that's mainly in hospital but expected to be much higher when deaths in the community are included, without any indication of whether the total for Ireland includes deaths in the community or whether it's also predominantly in hospital deaths; if Ireland is counting all deaths then that would create a significant difference.
London (and similar cities), if they aren't aiming for lockdown to fail,will need the most thought.
The biggest issue is all the people stuck inside tiny flats with no way of going outside other than for a brief run or shopping trip.
People like me with a nice garden in which to enjoy the sun have it relatively easy, and even then it’s really hard. I have no idea how the less fortunate are managing to stay sane. They must be absolutely champing at the bit to get out.
Yep, this is point 2/3 on what would I do differently
(point 1 relating to the NHS/PPE, I don't know exactly what)
point 3/2 relating to the self-employed, etc... I think the trumpesque flat payout is the way to go (use HMRC's data) get something out quickly (unlike trump, not holding it up for signing) and fix mistakes later. Rather than relying on self info of UC. Do something with rents/mortgages if everyone has a 'holiday' then it's only the terminal landlord who's got cashflow issues (and they and their staff have just had a partial subsidy).
I think there's actually only 3 million or so households (I found an article saying 2 million in 2005 when I was thinking about it first), and a reasonable proportion of that should be easy fixes. 2 story flats where the ground flat has the garden. Town scale number of Apartments near parks, could be dealt with bespokely by one council staffer and some tape in an afternoon.
London, is the tricky one, there will be dense areas lots of people and no green. Overall there is the area. Hyde park alone has 1.4 million square metres, but which would just about give every Londoner 1 hour/week social distanced sunbathing (and 1 hour moonbathing). So if you ignore the logistics/policing, and focused on the needy, you'd expect things to be reasonably cushty. Of course the logistics/policing of that would be impossible, but it gives a bit of hope that something is possible.
London's Shops, too are designed for urban living.
We have no garden, but we are near lots of green space, commons, and the river. I find pavements difficult as they are often quite narrow. Local shops look hopeless, often quite small. Otherwise, we are O K in a 2nd floor flat, in Putney, but we are old, so don't miss clubbing, drug deals, etc. But we do have an allotment, which helps.
Never mind how we got here. 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. What would you do different now, if you were the government? What policies would you change now? What guidance would you change now? What steps would you take to improve the short and long term?
I would not want to be starting from here. But here is where we are. A complete change of government, medical and scientific advisers would not change that. I see no silver bullets. What do you see?
I'm going to (as others have) reject your premise.
Who could have predicted the effect of a flu-like pandemic except the medical experts and epidemiologists in a report the government commissioned themselves last year and then ignored? Who could have predicted what the delay in lockdown would have done, except for the obvious examples of Italy, Spain and France? Who could have guessed what allowing major sporting and cultural events to take place would do to infection levels, in a period when we should have already had lockdown, except, well everyone? Testing? PPE? International travellers still passing through UK airports without compulsory quarantine?
I mean, fucking hell.
What steps would I take to improve the short and the long term? First job, I'd hand the entire cabinet a bottle of whisky and the mess Webley.
I would absolutely ensure that the statistics I presented every day were accurate, up-to-date and transparent. If I was losing a thousand people a day (and we are), I would be telling those members of my party agitating to 'get the economy moving' to get back in their box. And I would tell the public myself - I wouldn't get rotating underlings to do it so the press couldn't hold them individually to account for things they'd said yesterday, the day before and the week before.
I would make absolutely certain that any tax-payers' money was in the form of shares. If that means nationalising whole swathes of the country, then tough. These 'successful businesses' should have saved up a few months' reserves, rather than spunking on the director's new jag or a couple of billion in dividends. No one has the right to own a company because it makes them look good. They can, if they want, buy them back when the crisis is over. At least the business is still intact.
I would also make absolutely certain that low-paid, self-employed and gig workers had enough to live on. I would immediately give everyone in the country with a NI number a monthly stipend, which would be taxable. If you're still working, you pay it back through an emergency tax code, either PAYE or through the end-of-year calculations.
I would actually use the army. I'm not talking about parking a tank on every street corner, but we already know that we're missing thousands of police officers, while the army is some 80k. Get them doing something during, I don't know, a time of national emergency. Logistics, security, comms. If it means checkpoints, then do that. (On a purely personal note, those who are treating the local roads as a race track could do with a couple of rounds into their front tyres.)
And enforce the lockdown. No exceptions. There are unlikely to be people being admitted to hospital now who were infected a month ago. How did they contract the virus? We could be pretty much done by now. FFS, we're an island.
Instead, we're still dicking about, and yes, the blame is completely at the government's door. We could have been ready, we could have been quick, and we could have been robust. We were none of those things.
I was wondering how we are getting 800 deaths a day after 5 weeks. I know that 800 comprises some old stats, so deaths for that day are probably lower. But is there a leakage somewhere? (And this excludes care homes).
I was wondering how we are getting 800 deaths a day after 5 weeks. I know that 800 comprises some old stats, so deaths for that day are probably lower. But is there a leakage somewhere? (And this excludes care homes).
Any number of leakages. Shopping trollies, for example. Our co-op has hand sanitiser at the door but by that time you've already got your trolley and who knows what the last user deposited on it? Plus there are lots of people still at work because they have to be. Most of our crofters had lambs and calves arrive by the dozen over the last month. Want to bet on how well they were able to clean hands or socially distance while winching a calf out during a difficult birth? There are still some kids in school, and some staff. Buses and trains are operating. All of these people then go home with whatever they have picked up. Unless you're really disciplined you're not going to wash or sanitise your hands as often as you should, you're going to touch your face, you're going to have someone brush past you.
tl;dr it likely isn't one thing, it's a whole bunch of little things that add up.
I was wondering how we are getting 800 deaths a day after 5 weeks. I know that 800 comprises some old stats, so deaths for that day are probably lower. But is there a leakage somewhere? (And this excludes care homes).
I'm wondering if some of the batch sent home (and hence off statistics) we now we can keep in hospital. As it seems to have gone back up from 600 at the start of the week
But there are a lot of community leakages opportunities, lockdown flouting (the seaside trips still just abut show up), workplaces are still open (I'm not sure how many), inside homes (especially care homes)
Comments
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1. Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries eighteen of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
No countries have joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
The Scottish figures include deaths in care homes, at home and one death in an "other institution" ( a prison AIU) so those care home deaths will be included in the UK figures.
From the FT article, the death rate for the time of year has shown a massive jump
This explains why the English figures are regarded with caution by many.
The UK is a complete basketcase at this moment. We are the country that other countries point to and thank God they don't live here. We are busy slaughtering our way through our own population and not so much raising a squeak of protest. At this point, less than 100k would be a surprise.
The difference is our government. That's it. Not our national character, our health service, our infrastructure, our constitution. Our government.
That's the word I was trying to remember - Old, not Middle, English.
Thanks!
And it is the trend lines that will influence policy. What relaxation of policy might there be re residential care? I would think none for the foreseeable future. Even if there is some relaxation in other areas. There is a clear need also to ensure better levels of PPE for care workers. So I think residential care will be subject to specific policy guidance re both isolation and protection.
I think the FT article may have it right. And the ONS stats will shed further light on the overall death rate through time. The hospital figures are horrifying on their own.
I suppose the Tory media will focus on the return of Boris as a miracle, and play down the death total. I don't know how much longer this can be maintained, as we are sliding into carnage. Well, it's only the old who are dying.
How do you get that number? ATM I would be surprised at under 60k or over 80k (in this wave) without yet another factor of government callousness (either future or in suppressed facts).
I've got idiot relatives sharing memes saying the press should stop criticising and that we should all support the government. Given the track record of this government that's a recipe for 100k being a low-ball estimate.
But, there certainly needs to be further enforcement of the current restrictions if there's any chance of easing them off anytime soon. That would remove the sunbathers, make the joggers think about when they go out so that they're not all out at once and struggle to keep >2m distance from others, and reduce car use to just those few essential trips.
Well yes, but a fraying of the lockdown won't show in a rise in hospital admissions for at least a week or two. The lag effects in this thing are an absolute bugger.
You might measure it in people tested per 100,000 of population, but the testing kits themselves are bought and paid for in absolute numbers. Ireland has a significantly smaller population and thus doesn’t have to source and fund anywhere near as many kits in order to look better than the UK.
But equally they have less money so can be outbid by the bigger players and they have less domestic production capacity.
People are getting to the limit of how much isolation they can take. Two more weeks of it and I think there will be even more people ignoring the requirements, unless the police start actually arresting or fining people.
Of course, if that does happen there could easily be even worse civil unrest, possibly even rioting. There are a lot of very bored people just itching for any excuse to throw off the shackles...
The Yiddish nudnik has a similar meaning, I think.
I wonder if these are related to "numpty" or whether it's a case on convergent evolution.
Well I hope you're wrong or that 20,000 is going to be just a foretaste.
Our issues are late lockdown and struggling to get PPE We were in no position to emulate the German response because of underinvestment in health care and comparative under preparedness for a pandemic.
Never mind how we got here. 20/20 hindsight doesn't help. What would you do different now, if you were the government? What policies would you change now? What guidance would you change now? What steps would you take to improve the short and long term?
I would not want to be starting from here. But here is where we are. A complete change of government, medical and scientific advisers would not change that. I see no silver bullets. What do you see?
Here in a midsized town, and with a 30% full work, I'd really appreciate 3 gratuitous shops and a social (and obviously full normality would be better) but can carry on.
More rural areas don't get the supermarket benefits, urban areas get hammered in lots of ways.
What a lovely word! Thank you, Miss Amanda...
20 000 is an hors d'oeuvre for this bloody virus, the entree is yet to come, if Marvin is right. It's ironic that Imperial College warned of 250 000, come on guys, we can make it.
The biggest issue is all the people stuck inside tiny flats with no way of going outside other than for a brief run or shopping trip.
People like me with a nice garden in which to enjoy the sun have it relatively easy, and even then it’s really hard. I have no idea how the less fortunate are managing to stay sane. They must be absolutely champing at the bit to get out.
Plus, of course, every breach of the restrictions will extend the duration of the restrictions for everyone.
Yeah, every day is a brand new day with no history and we are in a state of constantly looking forward and saying 'Who could have predicted this?'
[CITATION NEEDED]
Deaths in Northern Ireland = 294
Deaths in the Republic of Ireland = 1063
(Source for both figures)
Population of Northern Ireland = 1,885,400
Population of the Republic of Ireland = 4,921,500
(Source: Wikipedia, based on 2019 figures)
Death rate in Northern Ireland = 15.6 per 100,000
Death rate in the Republic of Ireland = 21.6 per 100,000
I'm not sure whether my sarcasm meter is properly calibrated, but one thought I had fairly early on in this crisis and our collective (non-)reactions to it is that, in accelerated form, it's what's happening with climate change. If there are lessons to be learned in advance planning for near-certain catastrophes in the future, it's in the realm of climate change that we should be learning lessons.
Given how long restrictions are predicted to be in place even in a best case scenario, there may be many who would think adding a bit more time on to the end of them doesn’t make much practical difference.
Do it for another 12 weeks or do it for another 24 - those numbers don’t impact hugely on how one copes this week.
Boris tends to wing it on most things, and this was true of covid at first. Of course, he sobered up, but presumably we lost time. Most of the cabinet look second rate, and are relying on Boris to get them through. However, there is no prospect of another government, so we are stuck. Unfortunately, we have a servile press also. Maybe something will turn up, e.g., a useful antiviral, otherwise, we could be in for carnage.
(point 1 relating to the NHS/PPE, I don't know exactly what)
point 3/2 relating to the self-employed, etc... I think the trumpesque flat payout is the way to go (use HMRC's data) get something out quickly (unlike trump, not holding it up for signing) and fix mistakes later. Rather than relying on self info of UC. Do something with rents/mortgages if everyone has a 'holiday' then it's only the terminal landlord who's got cashflow issues (and they and their staff have just had a partial subsidy).
I think there's actually only 3 million or so households (I found an article saying 2 million in 2005 when I was thinking about it first), and a reasonable proportion of that should be easy fixes. 2 story flats where the ground flat has the garden. Town scale number of Apartments near parks, could be dealt with bespokely by one council staffer and some tape in an afternoon.
London, is the tricky one, there will be dense areas lots of people and no green. Overall there is the area. Hyde park alone has 1.4 million square metres, but which would just about give every Londoner 1 hour/week social distanced sunbathing (and 1 hour moonbathing). So if you ignore the logistics/policing, and focused on the needy, you'd expect things to be reasonably cushty. Of course the logistics/policing of that would be impossible, but it gives a bit of hope that something is possible.
London's Shops, too are designed for urban living.
I'm going to (as others have) reject your premise.
Who could have predicted the effect of a flu-like pandemic except the medical experts and epidemiologists in a report the government commissioned themselves last year and then ignored? Who could have predicted what the delay in lockdown would have done, except for the obvious examples of Italy, Spain and France? Who could have guessed what allowing major sporting and cultural events to take place would do to infection levels, in a period when we should have already had lockdown, except, well everyone? Testing? PPE? International travellers still passing through UK airports without compulsory quarantine?
I mean, fucking hell.
What steps would I take to improve the short and the long term? First job, I'd hand the entire cabinet a bottle of whisky and the mess Webley.
I would absolutely ensure that the statistics I presented every day were accurate, up-to-date and transparent. If I was losing a thousand people a day (and we are), I would be telling those members of my party agitating to 'get the economy moving' to get back in their box. And I would tell the public myself - I wouldn't get rotating underlings to do it so the press couldn't hold them individually to account for things they'd said yesterday, the day before and the week before.
I would make absolutely certain that any tax-payers' money was in the form of shares. If that means nationalising whole swathes of the country, then tough. These 'successful businesses' should have saved up a few months' reserves, rather than spunking on the director's new jag or a couple of billion in dividends. No one has the right to own a company because it makes them look good. They can, if they want, buy them back when the crisis is over. At least the business is still intact.
I would also make absolutely certain that low-paid, self-employed and gig workers had enough to live on. I would immediately give everyone in the country with a NI number a monthly stipend, which would be taxable. If you're still working, you pay it back through an emergency tax code, either PAYE or through the end-of-year calculations.
I would actually use the army. I'm not talking about parking a tank on every street corner, but we already know that we're missing thousands of police officers, while the army is some 80k. Get them doing something during, I don't know, a time of national emergency. Logistics, security, comms. If it means checkpoints, then do that. (On a purely personal note, those who are treating the local roads as a race track could do with a couple of rounds into their front tyres.)
And enforce the lockdown. No exceptions. There are unlikely to be people being admitted to hospital now who were infected a month ago. How did they contract the virus? We could be pretty much done by now. FFS, we're an island.
Instead, we're still dicking about, and yes, the blame is completely at the government's door. We could have been ready, we could have been quick, and we could have been robust. We were none of those things.
Well said, @Doc Tor - please would you be our Prime Minister? Pretty please?
Any number of leakages. Shopping trollies, for example. Our co-op has hand sanitiser at the door but by that time you've already got your trolley and who knows what the last user deposited on it? Plus there are lots of people still at work because they have to be. Most of our crofters had lambs and calves arrive by the dozen over the last month. Want to bet on how well they were able to clean hands or socially distance while winching a calf out during a difficult birth? There are still some kids in school, and some staff. Buses and trains are operating. All of these people then go home with whatever they have picked up. Unless you're really disciplined you're not going to wash or sanitise your hands as often as you should, you're going to touch your face, you're going to have someone brush past you.
tl;dr it likely isn't one thing, it's a whole bunch of little things that add up.
I'm wondering if some of the batch sent home (and hence off statistics) we now we can keep in hospital. As it seems to have gone back up from 600 at the start of the week
But there are a lot of community leakages opportunities, lockdown flouting (the seaside trips still just abut show up), workplaces are still open (I'm not sure how many), inside homes (especially care homes)