Remember when Trump got punked in Tulsa, OK? His campaign was giving out tickets for what was billed as he greatest speech ever. Thousands of young people on Tik Tok started calling, asking for tickets. It looked like he would have not only a full stadium, but he would have satellite venues throughout the city. Turns out, there were more reporters than Trump supporters at that rally. He flew back to DC a very angry man.
It wasn't just the mostly-empty stadium that pissed Trump off. One of the things that this kind of operation is good for is generating names and contact information of likely supporters. These are people you can hit up later in the election to volunteer for your campaign, turn out to vote, and (most importantly from Trump's perspective) hit up for donations. The presence of so many false leads on the Tulsa list made it virtually useless for campaign purposes.
Speaking of Nikki Haley, here she is at a town hall in New Hampshire answering a voter's question about what caused the American Civil War.
Haley: I think it always comes down to the role of government, and what the rights of the people are, and I will always stand by the fact that I think government was intended to secure the rights and freedoms of the people. It wasn't meant to be all things to all people. Government doesn't need to tell you how to live your life, they don’t need to tell you what you can and can’t do. They don’t need to be a part of your life. They need to make sure that you have freedom. We need to have capitalism, we need to have economic freedom, we need to make sure that we do all things so that individuals can have the liberties so that they can have freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to do or be anything they want to be without government getting in the way.
Patrick: Thank you. In the year 2023 it's astonishing to me that you answered that question without mentioning the word 'slavery'.
Haley: What do you want me to say about slavery?
Patrick: No, you've answered my question. Thank you.
Afterwards when speaking to reporters Patrick (no last name given) said Haley was asked the same question when she was running for governor of South Carolina and he wanted to know if she would answer it in the same way now that she's running for president. Apparently she did.
The unstated subtext here is that the Republican base is racist enough that any mention of slavery in this context is unacceptable. Luckily for Republican candidates they'll also consider straightforward questions like this to be trick questions or gotchas.
Remember when Trump got punked in Tulsa, OK? His campaign was giving out tickets for what was billed as he greatest speech ever. Thousands of young people on Tik Tok started calling, asking for tickets. It looked like he would have not only a full stadium, but he would have satellite venues throughout the city. Turns out, there were more reporters than Trump supporters at that rally. He flew back to DC a very angry man.
It wasn't just the mostly-empty stadium that pissed Trump off. One of the things that this kind of operation is good for is generating names and contact information of likely supporters. These are people you can hit up later in the election to volunteer for your campaign, turn out to vote, and (most importantly from Trump's perspective) hit up for donations. The presence of so many false leads on the Tulsa list made it virtually useless for campaign purposes.
Speaking of Nikki Haley, here she is at a town hall in New Hampshire answering a voter's question about what caused the American Civil War.
Haley: I think it always comes down to the role of government, and what the rights of the people are, and I will always stand by the fact that I think government was intended to secure the rights and freedoms of the people. It wasn't meant to be all things to all people. Government doesn't need to tell you how to live your life, they don’t need to tell you what you can and can’t do. They don’t need to be a part of your life. They need to make sure that you have freedom. We need to have capitalism, we need to have economic freedom, we need to make sure that we do all things so that individuals can have the liberties so that they can have freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to do or be anything they want to be without government getting in the way.
Patrick: Thank you. In the year 2023 it's astonishing to me that you answered that question without mentioning the word 'slavery'.
Haley: What do you want me to say about slavery?
Patrick: No, you've answered my question. Thank you.
Afterwards when speaking to reporters Patrick (no last name given) said Haley was asked the same question when she was running for governor of South Carolina and he wanted to know if she would answer it in the same way now that she's running for president. Apparently she did.
The unstated subtext here is that the Republican base is racist enough that any mention of slavery in this context is unacceptable. Luckily for Republican candidates they'll also consider straightforward questions like this to be trick questions or gotchas.
But it's not a straightforward question is it? It is a trick question. She answered it brilliantly. I.e. not at all. She answered another one of her own imagining. Superb politics. If the liberal intelligentsia given media time are 'astonished' at that, then they're dissimulating. Or worse. The electorate won't be impressed by such a damn fool question which has what to do with the price of carrots either.
Talk about having egg on your face, Nikki. When you were asked what caused the civil war, you said it was about the way the government would be run, okay; and, it was about individual rights, okay; and, about tradition and change okay, and? You just can't say it was about slavery?
She is deeply flawed, but she's Mother Teresa compared to the front runner. Personally I would lean toward Chris Christie, flawed as he too may be, but political contests do tend to boil down to a choice of the lesser evil.
She is deeply flawed, but she's Mother Teresa compared to the front runner. Personally I would lean toward Chris Christie, flawed as he too may be, but political contests do tend to boil down to a choice of the lesser evil.
At this point I think Dread Cthulhu might be the lesser evil in the GOP primary contest. At least he's honest.
Talk about having egg on your face, Nikki. When you were asked what caused the civil war, you said it was about the way the government would be run, okay; and, it was about individual rights, okay; and, about tradition and change okay, and? You just can't say it was about slavery?
When I watch the video, I see her saying government should stay out of individual's lives. Yet I see the Republican lead state governments trying to do everything to control individual decision. Consider women's reproductive rights, or gender affirming medical care of minors, or dictating what teachers can share with students about our racial past.
To listen to the Republican line, I hear a lot of doublespeak.
When I watch the video, I see her saying government should stay out of individual's lives. Yet I see the Republican lead state governments trying to do everything to control individual decision. Consider women's reproductive rights, or gender affirming medical care of minors, or dictating what teachers can share with students about our racial past.
To listen to the Republican line, I hear a lot of doublespeak.
It makes sense if you consider cis-het white Christian men to be the only real Americans.
But it's not a straightforward question is it? It is a trick question. She answered it brilliantly. I.e. not at all. She answered another one of her own imagining. Superb politics. If the liberal intelligentsia given media time are 'astonished' at that, then they're dissimulating. Or worse. The electorate won't be impressed by such a damn fool question which has what to do with the price of carrots either.
Baloney. The portion of the electorate to which she needs to appeal won't be impressed by her damn fool answer. Giving a gobbledygook non-answer to a straightforward question makes her look very bad.
But it's not a straightforward question is it? It is a trick question. She answered it brilliantly. I.e. not at all. She answered another one of her own imagining. Superb politics. If the liberal intelligentsia given media time are 'astonished' at that, then they're dissimulating. Or worse. The electorate won't be impressed by such a damn fool question which has what to do with the price of carrots either.
Baloney. The portion of the electorate to which she needs to appeal won't be impressed by her damn fool answer. Giving a gobbledygook non-answer to a straightforward question makes her look very bad.
What is this portion? 'Giving a gobbledygook non-answer to a straightforward question makes her look very bad', to whom? What are the psephological effects? And it's not a straightforward question. As I explained.
To get onto the ballot paper she needs to convince committed Republicans. To get elected she needs to appeal to the (arguably more critically thoughtful) uncommitted voters as well.
What, she needs to convince either of them about the cause of the Civil War?
One can do no better than Lincoln on that,
slaves constituted a peculiar and powerful interest. All knew that this interest was, somehow, the cause of the war. To strengthen, perpetuate, and extend this interest was the object for which the insurgents would rend the Union, even by war; while the government claimed no right to do more than to restrict the territorial enlargement of it
Because Democrats are begging to have someone to vote for besides Uncle Joe and she seemed to many to fit the bill -- until she opened her mouth and put her foot in it.
Because Democrats are begging to have someone to vote for besides Uncle Joe and she seemed to many to fit the bill -- until she opened her mouth and put her foot in it.
Sorry, how does that help her dethrone Trump? Democrats would vote for her rather than Biden, so she gets Trump's crown?
If you-know-who (sorry, I can't soil my fingers by typing his name) is the Republican candidate, I'm afraid he will win. Uncle Joe will not be able to stop him. In fact, Uncle Joe assured his victory when he decided to seek re-election.
However, if Haley or Christie is the Republican candidate, I think they will get a large number of Democratic votes and Uncle Joe won't have a prayer.
I changed my party affiliation from Democratic to Republican so I could vote against you-know-who in the primary. I had intended to vote for Haley but have changed my mind since her performance of a few days ago. I'll vote for Christie now.
If Christie gets the nomination I will vote for him in the general election. If you-know-who is the candidate, I will have no choice but to vote for Uncle Joe.
...why on earth would you vote for Haley or Christie, though, if you're not a Republican? Biden can at least be pushed leftwards by activists within the party. Is it just his age?
If you-know-who (sorry, I can't soil my fingers by typing his name) is the Republican candidate, I'm afraid he will win. Uncle Joe will not be able to stop him. In fact, Uncle Joe assured his victory when he decided to seek re-election.
While it is certainly an all-too-real possibility that Trump will beat Biden, and it would be a big mistake to underestimate that possibility, it’s an equally big mistake to treat it as an inevitability. The election is 10+ months away, and that’s a very, very long time in politics. (And no, I’m not really talking about the various Trump indictments, which I doubt will be anywhere near resolved before the election.)
...why on earth would you vote for Haley or Christie, though, if you're not a Republican? Biden can at least be pushed leftwards by activists within the party. Is it just his age?
While it is certainly an all-too-real possibility that Trump will beat Biden, and it would be a big mistake to underestimate that possibility, it’s an equally big mistake to treat it as an inevitability.
If the election were to happen today, I think Trump would win the popular vote over Biden by just a couple of percentage points, but still in the margin of error. Nevertheless, the more important vote would be the electoral college vote. 270 to Win has the Democrats leading. 243 to 235 with 65 votes undecided if the vote were to happen today.
Another indicator is the off-year votes on various initiatives. In every state where the people have put the women's right of reproductive choice on the ballot, the Democratic position has prevailed.
To me, Biden has shot himself in the foot when it comes to supporting Israel and the immigration question. Now, if he can reach a compromise with congress on immigration reform, the popular vote just might swing towards him. Likewise, if he can get Israel to cease fire, good for him too.
Don't worry, Biden has a lot of accomplishments he can bring with him. Trump has little.
I have been reading Profiles in Ignorance: How America's Politicians Have Gotten Dumb and Dumber[ by Andy Borowitz (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2022). Borowitz points out Republicans always depend on the white vote to win elections. Democrats work to build coalitions of minorities to win. With the continual browning of America, that white vote is getting smaller and smaller. Will this be the last gasp for whites? I think that has already happened.
Of note, Borowitz is a satirist who writes a column in the New York Times. The book is funny, but it is well researched. Fifty pages of end notes.
A lot can happen between now and November 7, 2024.
The Supremes will have to rule on how the 14th Amendment applies to Trump, if at all.
Trump just might be convicted of a felony somewhere.
or he might have a life ending event, considering his age and (assumed) health problems
OR Haley might be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat and beat him in the Republican nominating process.
If the election were to happen today, I think Trump would win the popular vote over Biden by just a couple of percentage points, but still in the margin of error.
There is no margin of error in an election. Or are you saying that polls indicate that if the election were held today, Trump would win the popular election, but by a lead within margins of error of various polls?
Nevertheless, the more important vote would be the electoral college vote. 270 to Win has the Democrats leading. 243 to 235 with 65 votes undecided if the vote were to happen today.
Given the Republican advantage in the Electoral College, it seems pretty unlikely that a Republican candidate could win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote.
And it seems worth saying again that while polls this far ahead of an election may be useful to campaigns for highlighting where they need to focus efforts and resources, they’re not reliable at all as predictors of the actual results of the election.
I just think it's way too dangerous to risk putting any Republican at the helm right now, even the ones who dress and speak nicely. The base and at least part of the leadership are running headlong towards fascism. Congress is split almost 50/50 and the court is full of conservatives, so there will be no one in government to hold back the next Republican president.
I'm no Biden fan either, but I'd vote for a potted plant if it was on the Democratic ticket right now. (Hell, at least the potted plant probably wouldn't have aided and abetted war crimes, which is more than you can say for most centrist Democrats.)
There is no margin of error in an election. Or are you saying that polls indicate that if the election were held today, Trump would win the popular election, but by a lead within margins of error of various polls?
...why on earth would you vote for Haley or Christie, though, if you're not a Republican? Biden can at least be pushed leftwards by activists within the party. Is it just his age?
Let's just say he's past his Use By date.
Just out of curiosity, what is that Use By date? I ask because Donald Trump is only three years younger than Joe Biden and for some reason almost no one is worrying too much about his age, despite Trump showing much clearer signs of mental and physical decline than Biden.
...why on earth would you vote for Haley or Christie, though, if you're not a Republican? Biden can at least be pushed leftwards by activists within the party. Is it just his age?
Let's just say he's past his Use By date.
Just out of curiosity, what is that Use By date? I ask because Donald Trump is only three years younger than Joe Biden and for some reason almost no one is worrying too much about his age, despite Trump showing much clearer signs of mental and physical decline than Biden.
From this side of the Pond his metal capacity, his ideas and criminality seem to be more important than his age. It does seem to be a factor though.
It's hard to separate genuine concerns about Biden's capacity from the bullshit propaganda of the Trumpist right. This is particularly true given Biden's long-standing speech impediment, which seems to be the source of many verbal mis-steps. Recall also that the right spent 8 years of Obama's presidency insisting he was dependent on the autocue and completely incapable without it, and now he's supposedly the shadow president.
Christie has now dropped out, effectively leaving Trump, Hailey, and DeSantis in the fight. The Iowa caucuses are Monday, but it is bitter cold there. Hailey has gained a few ponts, but Trump is expected to win by a landslide.
Then it is on to New Hampshire. Hailey may have it. I hope so.
The Iowa caucuses are Monday, but it is bitter cold there.
Today's projected high temperature in Ames, Iowa (more or less the geographic center of the state) is -1°F (-18°C). At 7:00 PM CST tonight (when the caucuses begin) the temperature is projected to be -6°F (-21°C). This could affect turnout, and thus the outcome.
Of course, Donald Trump is showing the kind of concern for his followers and compassion for others that we've come to expect.
Donald Trump as Iowa experiences subzero temperatures ahead of the caucuses: “You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog, you say ‘Darling, I gotta make it.’ Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember."
14 January 2024
If I am understanding latest Iowa Polls, correctly, Trump is running at 57%, Hailey at 21%, DeSantis at 13%, all others at 7%. Hailey appears to have gained a bit,
If this is true, it should give her a good springboard into New Hampshire. I understand DeSantis will be focusing on South Carolina, where Hailey had been a former governor in hopes of rocking her world.
If I am understanding latest Iowa Polls, correctly, Trump is running at 57%, Hailey at 21%, DeSantis at 13%, all others at 7%. Hailey appears to have gained a bit,
If this is true, it should give her a good springboard into New Hampshire. I understand DeSantis will be focusing on South Carolina, where Hailey had been a former governor in hopes of rocking her world.
Trump seems to have under-performed the polling, gathering 51% of the actual vote. After going through the meat grinder of the caucus process that translates to exactly 50% of the Iowa delegates. Here's the breakdown:
Trump 20
DeSantis 9
Haley 8
Ramaswamy 3
For context, there are 2,429 delegates to the Republican National Convention this year, so 1,215 are needed to win the nomination outright on the first ballot. So Trump has acquired about 3.3% of the delegates he'll ultimately need.
If I am understanding latest Iowa Polls, correctly, Trump is running at 57%, Hailey at 21%, DeSantis at 13%, all others at 7%. Hailey appears to have gained a bit,
If this is true, it should give her a good springboard into New Hampshire. I understand DeSantis will be focusing on South Carolina, where Hailey had been a former governor in hopes of rocking her world.
Trump seems to have under-performed the polling, gathering 51% of the actual vote. After going through the meat grinder of the caucus process that translates to exactly 50% of the Iowa delegates. Here's the breakdown:
Trump 20
DeSantis 9
Haley 8
Ramaswamy 3
For context, there are 2,429 delegates to the Republican National Convention this year, so 1,215 are needed to win the nomination outright on the first ballot. So Trump has acquired about 3.3% of the delegates he'll ultimately need.
Which means half the Iowa delegates are going to someone other than Trump.
Only 15% of registered Republicans turned out, but then again, we know some Democrats and Independents showed up, switching parties for the vote.
Odd, the "ballots" were penciled handwritten slips placed in buckets. To me, that would be open to fraudulent possibilities. But no one seems to be concerned. I wonder why.
Odd, the "ballots" were penciled handwritten slips placed in buckets. To me, that would be open to fraudulent possibilities. But no one seems to be concerned. I wonder why.
Because “that’s how we’ve always done it.”
And the Iowa Caucuses are notoriously low turnout in terms of percentage of registered voters.
Odd, the "ballots" were penciled handwritten slips placed in buckets. To me, that would be open to fraudulent possibilities. But no one seems to be concerned. I wonder why.
Because “that’s how we’ve always done it.”
And the Iowa Caucuses are notoriously low turnout in terms of percentage of registered voters.
Last night's caucuses seem to have drawn about 110,000 voters. For comparison, in 2016 (the last time Republicans had a contested presidential primary) the turnout for the Republican caucuses was about 187,000. One of the benefits of last night's sub-zero temperature is that each of the remaining candidates can claim their totals would have been higher absent the bad weather.
Like most of the rest of the non-USA citizens I regard the possibility of a second Trump term as a nightmare. After crossing swords with a number of his very active supporters on X I’ve lost belief that they will return to the truth and lay down their loyalty. They live in a world of alternative “facts”.
So I’m hoping that the majority of non Trump supporters will turn out in droves in November 24. Trump’s delaying tactics look like preventing significant verdicts before then. If I was a US citizen faced with a choice between a donkey and Trump I would vote for the donkey without hesitation.
Like most of the rest of the non-USA citizens I regard the possibility of a second Trump term as a nightmare. After crossing swords with a number of his very active supporters on X I’ve lost belief that they will return to the truth and lay down their loyalty. They live in a world of alternative “facts”.
So I’m hoping that the majority of non Trump supporters will turn out in droves in November 24. Trump’s delaying tactics look like preventing significant verdicts before then. If I was a US citizen faced with a choice between a donkey and Trump I would vote for the donkey without hesitation.
You do know the donkey is the symbol of the Democrats?
Sure. I meant the animal. In the UK I was born in a very strong Labour constituency. My dad used to say that if the Archangel Gabriel was the Tory candidate and a donkey was the Labour candidate the donkey would get in by 25,000 votes.
Sure. I meant the animal. In the UK I was born in a very strong Labour constituency. My dad used to say that if the Archangel Gabriel was the Tory candidate and a donkey was the Labour candidate the donkey would get in by 25,000 votes.
In the US South, of course, it was a yellow-dog for conservative whites who'd vote Democrat no matter what. I think it was on the Ship that I learned "Yellow Dog Democrat" still has currency in that region, even refering to liberals who vote Democrat for ideologically opposite reasons that a dixiecrat would have.
I live in south FL and was accused many years ago of being a Yellow Dog Democrat. That was a term I'd never heard before and asked what it meant. When she suggested that she assumed I voted strict Democrat tickets, I was genuinely shocked. I told her that I always try to vote for the best candidate, no matter the party. I really don't think she believed me, and it was years later that it occurred to me that I should have asked her if she votes straight Republican. Unfortunately, she died several years ago, so that opportunity is gone.
I come from a family of people who wore and wear the Yellow Dog moniker quite proudly, and I married into a similar family. I remember my 86-ish year old grandfather getting a letter in 1983 or early 1984 asking him to head up the Reagan re-election campaign in the county where we lived. He couldn’t imagine why he got that letter. He actually wrote them back and said “I’ve never voted for a Republican in my life, and if I were to start now, it certainly wouldn’t be to vote for Reagan.”
Just so you know: Yellow Dog Democrat applied to voters in the Southern United States who voted solely for candidates who represented the Democratic Party. The term originated in the late 19th century. These voters would allegedly "vote for a yellow dog before they would vote for any Republican", or, "vote for a yellow dog if it ran on the Democratic ticket"
Just so you know: Yellow Dog Democrat applied to voters in the Southern United States who voted solely for candidates who represented the Democratic Party. The term originated in the late 19th century. These voters would allegedly "vote for a yellow dog before they would vote for any Republican", or, "vote for a yellow dog if it ran on the Democratic ticket"
All true. Though 1928 showed what happens if the dog wears a rosary around his neck.
Comments
It wasn't just the mostly-empty stadium that pissed Trump off. One of the things that this kind of operation is good for is generating names and contact information of likely supporters. These are people you can hit up later in the election to volunteer for your campaign, turn out to vote, and (most importantly from Trump's perspective) hit up for donations. The presence of so many false leads on the Tulsa list made it virtually useless for campaign purposes.
Speaking of Nikki Haley, here she is at a town hall in New Hampshire answering a voter's question about what caused the American Civil War.
Afterwards when speaking to reporters Patrick (no last name given) said Haley was asked the same question when she was running for governor of South Carolina and he wanted to know if she would answer it in the same way now that she's running for president. Apparently she did.
The unstated subtext here is that the Republican base is racist enough that any mention of slavery in this context is unacceptable. Luckily for Republican candidates they'll also consider straightforward questions like this to be trick questions or gotchas.
But it's not a straightforward question is it? It is a trick question. She answered it brilliantly. I.e. not at all. She answered another one of her own imagining. Superb politics. If the liberal intelligentsia given media time are 'astonished' at that, then they're dissimulating. Or worse. The electorate won't be impressed by such a damn fool question which has what to do with the price of carrots either.
Hmm. Are you sure you’re not a RINO?
Maybe Martin54 is right. I hate to say that.
At this point I think Dread Cthulhu might be the lesser evil in the GOP primary contest. At least he's honest.
Thanks man. Big of you. She has a Teflon face.
To listen to the Republican line, I hear a lot of doublespeak.
It makes sense if you consider cis-het white Christian men to be the only real Americans.
Baloney. The portion of the electorate to which she needs to appeal won't be impressed by her damn fool answer. Giving a gobbledygook non-answer to a straightforward question makes her look very bad.
What is this portion? 'Giving a gobbledygook non-answer to a straightforward question makes her look very bad', to whom? What are the psephological effects? And it's not a straightforward question. As I explained.
One can do no better than Lincoln on that,
from.
See how he talked about slavery? She didn't. She should have.
Which people? All Republicans at least act in the interests of white supremacists.
Why should she have? Politically?
How would it help her dethrone Trump?
Because Democrats are begging to have someone to vote for besides Uncle Joe and she seemed to many to fit the bill -- until she opened her mouth and put her foot in it.
Sorry, how does that help her dethrone Trump? Democrats would vote for her rather than Biden, so she gets Trump's crown?
However, if Haley or Christie is the Republican candidate, I think they will get a large number of Democratic votes and Uncle Joe won't have a prayer.
I changed my party affiliation from Democratic to Republican so I could vote against you-know-who in the primary. I had intended to vote for Haley but have changed my mind since her performance of a few days ago. I'll vote for Christie now.
If Christie gets the nomination I will vote for him in the general election. If you-know-who is the candidate, I will have no choice but to vote for Uncle Joe.
Let's just say he's past his Use By date.
What I think will have no bearing on the outcome.
Another indicator is the off-year votes on various initiatives. In every state where the people have put the women's right of reproductive choice on the ballot, the Democratic position has prevailed.
To me, Biden has shot himself in the foot when it comes to supporting Israel and the immigration question. Now, if he can reach a compromise with congress on immigration reform, the popular vote just might swing towards him. Likewise, if he can get Israel to cease fire, good for him too.
Don't worry, Biden has a lot of accomplishments he can bring with him. Trump has little.
I have been reading Profiles in Ignorance: How America's Politicians Have Gotten Dumb and Dumber[ by Andy Borowitz (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2022). Borowitz points out Republicans always depend on the white vote to win elections. Democrats work to build coalitions of minorities to win. With the continual browning of America, that white vote is getting smaller and smaller. Will this be the last gasp for whites? I think that has already happened.
Of note, Borowitz is a satirist who writes a column in the New York Times. The book is funny, but it is well researched. Fifty pages of end notes.
A lot can happen between now and November 7, 2024.
The Supremes will have to rule on how the 14th Amendment applies to Trump, if at all.
Trump just might be convicted of a felony somewhere.
or he might have a life ending event, considering his age and (assumed) health problems
OR Haley might be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat and beat him in the Republican nominating process.
Given the Republican advantage in the Electoral College, it seems pretty unlikely that a Republican candidate could win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote.
And it seems worth saying again that while polls this far ahead of an election may be useful to campaigns for highlighting where they need to focus efforts and resources, they’re not reliable at all as predictors of the actual results of the election.
I'm no Biden fan either, but I'd vote for a potted plant if it was on the Democratic ticket right now. (Hell, at least the potted plant probably wouldn't have aided and abetted war crimes, which is more than you can say for most centrist Democrats.)
Yep.
Just out of curiosity, what is that Use By date? I ask because Donald Trump is only three years younger than Joe Biden and for some reason almost no one is worrying too much about his age, despite Trump showing much clearer signs of mental and physical decline than Biden.
From this side of the Pond his metal capacity, his ideas and criminality seem to be more important than his age. It does seem to be a factor though.
Then it is on to New Hampshire. Hailey may have it. I hope so.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67918713
The second of the Ten Commandments springs to mind.
To our prayers brothers and sisters!
Today's projected high temperature in Ames, Iowa (more or less the geographic center of the state) is -1°F (-18°C). At 7:00 PM CST tonight (when the caucuses begin) the temperature is projected to be -6°F (-21°C). This could affect turnout, and thus the outcome.
Of course, Donald Trump is showing the kind of concern for his followers and compassion for others that we've come to expect.
"I am just going outside and may be some time."
If this is true, it should give her a good springboard into New Hampshire. I understand DeSantis will be focusing on South Carolina, where Hailey had been a former governor in hopes of rocking her world.
Trump seems to have under-performed the polling, gathering 51% of the actual vote. After going through the meat grinder of the caucus process that translates to exactly 50% of the Iowa delegates. Here's the breakdown:
- Trump 20
- DeSantis 9
- Haley 8
- Ramaswamy 3
For context, there are 2,429 delegates to the Republican National Convention this year, so 1,215 are needed to win the nomination outright on the first ballot. So Trump has acquired about 3.3% of the delegates he'll ultimately need.In unsurprising news, Vivek Ramaswamy has suspended his campaign.
Which means half the Iowa delegates are going to someone other than Trump.
Only 15% of registered Republicans turned out, but then again, we know some Democrats and Independents showed up, switching parties for the vote.
Odd, the "ballots" were penciled handwritten slips placed in buckets. To me, that would be open to fraudulent possibilities. But no one seems to be concerned. I wonder why.
And the Iowa Caucuses are notoriously low turnout in terms of percentage of registered voters.
Last night's caucuses seem to have drawn about 110,000 voters. For comparison, in 2016 (the last time Republicans had a contested presidential primary) the turnout for the Republican caucuses was about 187,000. One of the benefits of last night's sub-zero temperature is that each of the remaining candidates can claim their totals would have been higher absent the bad weather.
So I’m hoping that the majority of non Trump supporters will turn out in droves in November 24. Trump’s delaying tactics look like preventing significant verdicts before then. If I was a US citizen faced with a choice between a donkey and Trump I would vote for the donkey without hesitation.
You do know the donkey is the symbol of the Democrats?
In the US South, of course, it was a yellow-dog for conservative whites who'd vote Democrat no matter what. I think it was on the Ship that I learned "Yellow Dog Democrat" still has currency in that region, even refering to liberals who vote Democrat for ideologically opposite reasons that a dixiecrat would have.
Lest anyone draw the wrong inference from this, the U.S. presidential election is on November 5 this year. I don't know what happens on November 24.
All true. Though 1928 showed what happens if the dog wears a rosary around his neck.