"We have no place else to go": Conflict in the Middle East

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  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    KoF wrote: »
    It sounds like the POTUS has finally drawn a line and said that he's not going to allow US bombs to kill people in Rafah.

    Well, specifically the warning is that some weapons will be withheld should Israel launch a ground invasion of Rafah - which leaves plenty of space for further bombardment from both air and ground as well as ground offensives that fall short of an invasion (all of which is already taking place).
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    CNN have published a report into human rights abuses in Israel's detention centres - where they've been sending Palestinians swept up in mass arrests. Looks like conditions are similar and/or worse to American sites during the GWOT, with detainees frequently having limbs amputated due to being in restraints for too long:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/10/middleeast/israel-sde-teiman-detention-whistleblowers-intl-cmd
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited May 2024
    The US government have now said Israel may be breaching international law with American weapons. I have to say, I am surprised they have gone public with that. It’s contains a lot of hedging, but it is still a significant statement.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    The NYTimes has a long investigative piece about how they've just uncovered settler violence for the first time:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/magazine/israel-west-bank-settler-violence-impunity.html

    (archived: https://archive.ph/BIYSv )

    Even on a cursory read, it's hard not to conclude that the situation only persists because the two groups are not treated equally in law.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Well, this is a development. Though I imagine it will be a long time before any of these men stand trial at The Hague.
  • It seems that the POTUS is a bit annoyed about the ICC decision.
    Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also issued a statement in the last few minutes, in which he says the US "fundamentally rejects" the ICC's announcement, as well as the chief prosecutor's "equivalence of Israel with Hamas".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-69038760

    Which is interesting although saddening that Blinken has decided that Israel is moral because they are Israel and Hamas are immoral because they're terrorists.

    For me, fwiw, I think war crimes are war crimes whoever commits them.
  • Alan29Alan29 Shipmate
    KoF wrote: »
    It seems that the POTUS is a bit annoyed about the ICC decision.
    Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also issued a statement in the last few minutes, in which he says the US "fundamentally rejects" the ICC's announcement, as well as the chief prosecutor's "equivalence of Israel with Hamas".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-69038760

    Which is interesting although saddening that Blinken has decided that Israel is moral because they are Israel and Hamas are immoral because they're terrorists.

    For me, fwiw, I think war crimes are war crimes whoever commits them.

    Of course they are.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    I saw an... interesting take that said it wasn't fair to charge the Israeli leaders as well as the Hamas leaders because the latter were in hiding and wouldn't be brought to trial. Bibbi better hope his lawyers don't try and run with that argument.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    I saw an... interesting take that said it wasn't fair to charge the Israeli leaders as well as the Hamas leaders because the latter were in hiding and wouldn't be brought to trial.

    There is nothing stopping Netanyahu from also going into hiding.
  • Crœsos wrote: »
    I saw an... interesting take that said it wasn't fair to charge the Israeli leaders as well as the Hamas leaders because the latter were in hiding and wouldn't be brought to trial.

    There is nothing stopping Netanyahu from also going into hiding.

    He doesn't need to hide - it's not like the ICC is going to invade Israel. He might be well advised to carefully consider any foreign travel plans he might have, though.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Crœsos wrote: »
    I saw an... interesting take that said it wasn't fair to charge the Israeli leaders as well as the Hamas leaders because the latter were in hiding and wouldn't be brought to trial.

    There is nothing stopping Netanyahu from also going into hiding.

    He doesn't need to hide - it's not like the ICC is going to invade Israel. He might be well advised to carefully consider any foreign travel plans he might have, though.

    Those would mostly be to the US and other allies who have made it abundantly clear they give Israel a free pass regarding war crimes.
  • In my opinion the current situation has been caused many years ago now by the USA and allies ripping up the Rules of War rulebook after 2001.

    As Biden has recently said, the US "made mistakes" after 911 (presumably meaning the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan).

    And then once that idea has been broken then it becomes much more difficult to hold accountable US allies for doing the same thing.

    And then also along the same lines it is much more difficult to claim any moral stand against truly disgusting regimes. The ICC becomes a bogus concept court.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    KoF wrote: »
    In my opinion the current situation has been caused many years ago now by the USA and allies ripping up the Rules of War rulebook after 2001.

    I'd agree, it was made worse by the alliances they struck at that time, and then operating on the principle of rolling states of exception.

  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    AP are reporting that they've had cameras and broadcasting equipment seized by Israeli authorities citing the new media law:

    https://apnews.com/article/live-transmission-israel-associated-press-57e8f662907334ba3599156276381190

    The White House have responded that this is 'concerning'.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    Blinken met with some Arab American leaders and told them that if a Palestine State was recognised, the US would have to defund the UN and gave the example of the World Food Programme having to be shut down as a result:

    https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1792945760603869664

    I assume this is in reference to a maximalist interpretation of a clause in Public Law 101-246 that is already popular in ultra-Zionist circles.
  • Blinken met with some Arab American leaders and told them that if a Palestine State was recognised, the US would have to defund the UN

    Only true if said Palestinian State didn't agree to the UN resolutions acknowledging Israel's right to exist, surely?
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited May 2024
    Blinken met with some Arab American leaders and told them that if a Palestine State was recognised, the US would have to defund the UN

    Only true if said Palestinian State didn't agree to the UN resolutions acknowledging Israel's right to exist, surely?

    No. During the 90s there were a couple of amendments slipped into bills that would mandate the defunding of any body which recognised a Palestinian State governed by the PLO.

    The maximalist view is that this would apply to the PA, being the successor of the PLO. As above, this argument is regularly made in ultra-Zionist circles, such as:

    https://en.kohelet.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/KPF085_eBook-39_291118_F.pdf

    The Obama administration used the clause to withdraw from UNESCO:

    https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/10/176418.htm

    Oh course, as we've seen from enforcement - or lack of it - of the Leahy amendment the government can ignore federal laws when it chooses.

    It would be reasonable to take the view that this rather undermines the US's claim to support a two state solution - apart from in a kind of Platonic sense.
  • No. During the 90s there were a couple of amendments slipped into bills that would mandate the defunding of any body which recognised a Palestinian State governed by the PLO.

    Public Law 101-246 Section 414:
    PROHIBITION.—No funds authorized to be appropriated by this
    Act or any other Act shall be available for the United Nations or
    any specialized agency thereof which accords the Palestine Liberation
    Organization the same standing as member states.

    That's not quite the same thing, is it? There's a distinction between "according the PLO the same standing as a country and a member state of the UN" and "admitting the country of Palestine to the UN" - although as the latter can be vetoed by any permanent member of the security council, which includes the US, the US is able to prevent it. It just can't reasonably hide behind "our laws don't let us do this. Oh woe is me." as an excuse.

    Section 410 of Public Law 103-236 broadly prohibits finding any UN affiliate that treats bodies that are not states as if they were a state. A "state" has (a) a permanent population; (b) a defined territory; (c) government; and (d) capacity to enter into relations with other states.

    Palestine is currently recognized as a state by 140 member countries of the UN. The UN itself recognizes Palestine as a "non-member observer state", which you will note includes an acknowledgement that it is, in fact, a state.

    The US is busily playing Humpty Dumpty games here.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited May 2024
    That's not quite the same thing, is it? There's a distinction between "according the PLO the same standing as a country and a member state of the UN" and "admitting the country of Palestine to the UN" - although as the latter can be vetoed by any permanent member of the security council, which includes the US, the US is able to prevent it. It just can't reasonably hide behind "our laws don't let us do this. Oh woe is me." as an excuse.

    As per that pdf, I assume they'd draw an equivalence between the PLO and PA.
    The US is busily playing Humpty Dumpty games here.

    I wouldn't disagree, and I think it's important that these things are broadcast when they happen, as they build up to a complete picture which is rather damning and at variance with their official stated position.
  • As per that pdf, I assume they'd draw an equivalence between the PLO and PA.

    Probably. But I wouldn't draw an equivalence between either the PLO or the PA and "the country of Palestine".
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    As per that pdf, I assume they'd draw an equivalence between the PLO and PA.

    Probably. But I wouldn't draw an equivalence between either the PLO or the PA and "the country of Palestine".

    Yes, but clearly the US does, and has done in the past (see the Obama era link):

    "The United States also remains strongly committed to robust multilateral engagement across the UN system. However, Palestinian membership as a state in UNESCO triggers longstanding legislative restrictions which will compel the United States to refrain from making contributions to UNESCO."
  • The PA is the PLO. It is the on-the-ground interim administration created in 1994 after the negotiations between the PLO and Israel. Abu Mazen the President of the PA is also Chair of the PLO.

    These things get a bit confused because historically the PLO was the body representing all Palestinians, including millions in refugee camps outside of Israel/Palestine. The PA is only legally responsible for Palestinians in a defined area of the West Bank and Gaza - and obviously with the rise of Hamas in Gaza, the power to do anything in Gaza was effectively removed.

    Anyway, officially Palestinian overseas diplomatic missions* are of the PLO. I'm not exactly sure about the UN, but I suspect that's PLO too given that they don't have full member status.

    *Not sure if any of them are different, but certainly the ones I know about (for example London) are PLO

  • Also Fatah is the major faction in the PLO (though others smaller factions are also represented). Hamas isn't in the PLO.

    Or at least it wasn't historically, it might have changed recently.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    I believe the AP has had their equipment returned to them by order of an Israeli court.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    KoF wrote: »
    Anyway, officially Palestinian overseas diplomatic missions* are of the PLO.

    A lot of them style themselves 'Diplomatic missions of the Palestinian National Authority', but yes, the wording is somewhat fungible.
  • I believe Wikipedia is correct in saying
    Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO EC) (Arabic: اللجنة التنفيذية لمنظمة التحرير الفلسطينية, romanized: al-Lajnah al-Tanfīdhīyah li-Munaẓẓamat al-Taḥrīr al-Filasṭīnīyah) is the highest executive body of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and acts as the government of the State of Palestine.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Committee_of_the_Palestine_Liberation_Organization
  • Raptor EyeRaptor Eye Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    And still it goes on… https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kkqkngnedo

    My heart goes out to the people who have not only been moved on, starved and bombarded and forced to live in tents, but now have had their loved ones burned alive in a supposedly safe zone.

    I hold on to hope and continue to pray, with a heavy heart.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited May 2024
    More resignations from the US State Department and USAID:
    Alexander Smith, a contractor for the US Agency for International Development (USAID), said he was given a choice between resignation and dismissal after preparing a presentation on maternal and child mortality among Palestinians, which was cancelled at the last minute by USAID leadership last week.

    “I cannot do my job in an environment in which specific people cannot be acknowledged as fully human, or where gender and human rights principles apply to some, but not to others, depending on their race,” he wrote.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/30/two-more-us-officials-resign-over-biden-administrations-position-on-gaza-war
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    The Guardian and 972 magazine have had a couple of pieces on attempts by Mossad over a number of years to influence the outcomes of investigations run by the ICC:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/28/spying-hacking-intimidation-israel-war-icc-exposed

    Including what sounds like intimidation of the then prosecutor Fatou Bensouda:

    "Three of those sources were familiar with Bensouda’s formal disclosures to the ICC about the matter. They said she revealed Cohen had put pressure on her on several occasions not to proceed with a criminal investigation in the ICC’s Palestine case.

    According to accounts shared with ICC officials, he is alleged to have told her: “You should help us and let us take care of you. You don’t want to be getting into things that could compromise your security or that of your family.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/28/israeli-spy-chief-icc-prosecutor-war-crimes-inquiry

    The Israeli paper Haaretz have since revealed that they had been on the verge of reporting on the same story in 2022, but had been persuaded not to:

    " I was explained that if I publish the story, I would suffer the consequences and get to know the interrogation rooms of the Israeli security authorities from the inside."

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-05-30/ty-article/.premium/how-israel-nixed-haaretzs-report-into-alleged-mossad-extortion-of-hague-prosecutor/0000018f-c608-d801-a3ef-ff08cf810000 (archived: https://archive.is/3wLQU )
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited June 2024
    The NYTimes has an article on the condition in which many of the detainees are being kept - as far as anyone can tell these are just general people they've detained in Gaza, only a small proportion of which will be terrorists.

    Warning that the latter half of the article contains quite explicit descriptions of torture.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-detention-base.html (archived: https://archive.is/GQG3F )

  • There seems to be no fear of being held to account by the international community - I guess because they think they will be protected from prosecution by those with a veto.

    And the longer it goes on, the more likely it is that people will become weary of protesting.

    Meanwhile, the slaughter of the innocents continues, much to my distress and feeling of helplessness. All I can do is to trust in God, knowing that every single perpetrator will face up to their actions, and asking that those suffering will be held spiritually.
  • Times of Israel has a report on the US built pier:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-built-pier-in-gaza-resumes-operations-after-latest-weather-setback-official-says/

    "Yet it is unclear how much longer it will be operational, though a New York Times report said it could be dismantled early next month. According to the Times, the pier has only completed 10 full days of operations since it was opened."

    The earlier nytimes report details much the same thing but stresses 'security concerns' preventing the pier operating properly. https://archive.is/mJ0PP
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited July 2024
    972mag has an article on the use of free-fire zones and poor fire discipline by IDF troops operating within Gaza:

    https://www.972mag.com/israeli-soldiers-gaza-firing-regulations/

    Foreign Policy have a more technical article on the same problem blaming the command structure: https://archive.is/3EkwC

    Lancet have an article with a conservative estimate of the current death toll, putting it around 186K:
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

    [fixed link, by the way that's a letter to the Lancet not an article - L]


    And Brookings Institute have polled Middle East experts for this report which makes similarly gloomy reading:

    https://www.brookings.edu/articles/gloom-about-the-day-after-the-gaza-war-pervasive-among-mideast-scholars/
  • MaryLouiseMaryLouise Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Those Lancet statistics " accepted as accurate by Israeli intelligence services, the UN, and WHO," are what many of us here feared, even if they are never confirmed and the actual death tolls are higher.
  • And still it continues, more bombing of schools, more murder of innocent people which is supposedly OK as they thought it a legitimate target. When will this end? 🙏 Prayers are all I can hold onto.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Raptor Eye wrote: »
    And still it continues, more bombing of schools, more murder of innocent people which is supposedly OK as they thought it a legitimate target. When will this end? 🙏 Prayers are all I can hold onto.

    They bombed the space being used as a prayer hall during morning prayers. Would anyone consider it legitimate to e.g. bomb a synagogue in the hope of killing (say) Yoav Gallant, or Ukraine to bomb an Orthodox Church in the hope of killing Russian soldiers?
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    I have no doubt there are people who would consider those things to be just fine.
  • Ruth wrote: »
    I have no doubt there are people who would consider those things to be just fine.

    Yes, and generally the leaders of the countries supplying Israel with arms would be united in their condemnation of such actions.

    There have been other things in the last couple of weeks which would - normally - have triggered mass condemnation.

    Firstly a report from the human rights group B'Tselem:

    https://www.btselem.org/publications/202408_welcome_to_hell (Content warning)

    This detailed acts of abuse and torture going on in Israeli military prisons, including sexual assault, starvation and amputations brought about by witholding medical treatment. It largely confirms previous reports by Palestinians.

    There had also been widespread reports by Palestinians of sexual assault and rape being carried out inside the Sde Teiman facility. When military police turned up to take troops into custody for questioning, right wing protestors turned up to demand their release:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-prison-idf-soldiers-arrest-palestine-rape-b2587997.html

    And right wing (Likud) members of parliament defended the alleged actions of the soldiers:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-idf-palestinian-prisoner-alleged-rape-sde-teinman-abuse-protest/

    Footage of one of the alleged events was leaked to the press and broadcast on Israels Channel 12:

    https://news.sky.com/story/video-appears-to-show-idf-soldiers-sexually-abusing-palestinian-detainee-13193857 (content warning)

    Finally, today Ha'aretz released an investigation into the use by the IDF of Palestinian civilians dressed up in IDF uniform as human shields:

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-08-13/ty-article-magazine/.premium/idf-uses-gazan-civilians-as-human-shields-to-inspect-potentially-booby-trapped-tunnels/00000191-4c84-d7fd-a7f5-7db6b99e0000

    The context makes it clear that these were often just random Palestinians - not even those who are detained (who would anyway qualify for the protections of international humanitarian law):

    "The next day the teenager was released. He was taken to a checkpoint and told to walk south. "Then we finally realized that these weren't really terrorists but civilians who were taken especially for these operations," the soldier said."

    Just note that again this largely confirms the previous testimony of Palestinians - I've linked Western and Israeli sources because a common rejoinder that Palestinian sources are untrustworthy, in some cases this has proved more difficult as these events have received minimal coverage in Western media.
  • Probably won't happen, but the Western powers should give Israel 30 day notice to agree to a cease fire mediated by the UN or the powers would forgo giving any more defense supplies to Israel
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Why so long?
  • I appreciate this space to express my deep feelings about this. I think I am closer to this conflict than I have been to any other, for two reasons:

    Firstly I’ve been to the West Bank, spoken to some of the people there, seen and heard at first hand the situation before this latest destruction of human life started to take place.

    Secondly as a Christian I thought of the Israelites as people in relationship with God, a family that I was adopted into through Jesus.
    I feel a loss. I’m grieving. These people are clearly not serving God - quite the opposite - and as such they have let me down. I expected more of them. Expectation is the mother of disappointment.

    I realise that my tears are not only for the people whose lives have been destroyed. Never again can I feel an affinity with those who were themselves so cruelly treated, without being reminded that they have been inhuman too.
  • Look's like Israel has found a new way of attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, blow up their pagers and their two-way radios. This is becoming the stuff of James Bond movies. Sounds like Israel has found a way to heat up the lithium batteries so they explode. Problem is, civilians in the area are also endangered, but when has that brothered IDF?
  • May God be with those who have been maimed, killed or injured, with their families, with those who have witnessed this evil, and with those in the medical profession who are doing their best to care for the injured. 🙏 🙏 The perpetrators of this evil must live with the memory of their actions into eternity. May they repent. 🙏
  • Raptor Eye wrote: »
    May God be with those who have been maimed, killed or injured, with their families, with those who have witnessed this evil, and with those in the medical profession who are doing their best to care for the injured. 🙏 🙏 The perpetrators of this evil must live with the memory of their actions into eternity. May they repent. 🙏

    🕯
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Look's like Israel has found a new way of attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, blow up their pagers and their two-way radios. This is becoming the stuff of James Bond movies. Sounds like Israel has found a way to heat up the lithium batteries so they explode.

    No, this was almost certainly via planting explosives in the devices. Lithium batteries tend to burn rather than explode.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    The NY Times says they were manufactured by an Israeli front organization operating in Hungary.
    By all appearances, B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company that was under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front, according to three intelligence officers briefed on the operation. They said at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers.

    B.A.C. did take on ordinary clients, for which it produced a range of ordinary pagers. But the only client that really mattered was Hezbollah, and its pagers were far from ordinary. Produced separately, they contained batteries laced with the explosive PETN, according to the three intelligence officers.
    Free link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html?unlocked_article_code=1.L04.MIh9.wgyLovZU67zi&smid=url-share
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    On a technical and logistical basis it's a hugely impressive feat. Legally and morally? Mossad gonna Mossad.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    If Israel was in fact at war with a country, and targeted its combatant soldiers in this way - I think it would be a legitimate tactic. And would probably result in a lot less civilian deaths than bombing or drone strikes.

    But what seems to be happening increasingly is that nation states generally - and I include the US and UK in this - are asserting the right to murder people they don’t like within the territories of other states. This does an end run around both the levels of proof required to extradite and bring to trial those you claim are harming your state, and international laws on the conduct of war.

    The consensus, if there ever truly was one, on the conduct of war is breaking down - which facilitates crimes against humanity and genocide.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Yeah, it's kind of hard to be precious about the Salisbury attacks when our allies do stuff like this. Smacks of "it's ok when we do it".
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited September 2024
    We do it too - Syria being the obvious example. Really there needs to be some kind of development of the equivalent of the Geneva convention for conflict with hostile non-state paramilitaries.
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