Unless they do something to trigger a recall petition, all MPs are safe for the next 5 years. If an MP does something to trigger a recall, then 6000 is probably too small a majority, especially if they don't have the support of the party they stood for when elected.
I don't understand why Braverman would want to go to Reform. Farage and Tice would not let her be leader.
In any case, she got a 6,000+ majority in 2024 so she's safe there for the forseeable future
Yes, the same thought occurred to me. Maybe Braverman will try to form a new party of her own?
Interesting times...
Reform don’t need her, except on their terms. She could have been useful to them if they’d got 10 million votes and no seats, because there’d be a lack of representation for a large body of voters. That was probably her plan. But the worst case scenario came about for her when Reform got its leader, its chairman, its previous sole parliamentary representative and two others elected. She can’t lead them.
Indeed, though I think @Telford was also correct in implying that there might be personality issues between her and Farage/Tice.
It rather looks as though she's out in the cold, for the time being, at least. She hasn't yet made a bid for the tory leadership AFAIK.
She may well eventually get enough names of supporting MPs to get on the ballot. But the chat is that she can't. Unless someone does a Margaret Beckett.
After publishing this biased nonsense, they have the cheek to ask me for money....No chance
John Crace is a parliamentary sketch writer. It’s meant to be amusing, not reportage. I am not sure you normally restrict yourself to sources that strive to be neutral, though…
So far, we have four male candidates, of whom two are Jenrick and Stride - utter nonentities who have achieved zilch in their parliamentary careers.
Why no women? It seems that Braverman can't get the nominations, now that Jenrick has hoovered up his 10. Badenoch is facing some embarrassment because the Spectator has revealed comments she seems to have made on a blog some years ago. Perhaps that is causing some potential supporters to hold off in case more damaging comments come to light. And Patel hasn't made a move yet.
Is this really going to be an all male contest?
I still have a feeling that behind the scenes manipulations could lead to a single name being declared winner in time for the party conference.
My impression is that Stride is there for his unfailing ability during the campaign to go on TV or radio and brazenly defend whatever shite was being pushed that day without qualm. Seems to me that this is a characteristic you want in a deputy rather than a leader.
My impression is that Stride is there for his unfailing ability during the campaign to go on TV or radio and brazenly defend whatever shite was being pushed that day without qualm. Seems to me that this is a characteristic you want in a deputy rather than a leader.
And running isn’t a bad pitch for that.
OTOH of all the declared candidates I could actually see him as the ‘caretaker for five years’ to steady the ship for the next serious PM candidate.
No, because Badenoch at least will get the votes to run, and maybe someone else too.
OTOH, in the sea of things to criticise the Tories for, about the only thing that I will give them a free pass on is that if there is a woman who is best for the job (in the views of the membership or MPs) of leader, the Tories have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to give it to them.
Other parties (one in particular springs to mind not unadjacent to the government benches) not so much.
I’m aware that’s faint praise but if literally nothing else the Tories will elect women leaders.
It's always possible that Badenoch will choose not to run either because she thinks it's going to take more than one electoral cycle to get back into power or because she doesn't fancy spending 4+ years in opposition.
Their problems seem to be more serious than I initially assumed, as it feels like none of the possible candidates really have what it takes to rebuild the party.
Given that Braverman has basically flounced out of the contest with "you're all a bunch of liberals who wouldn't listen to me" the only question over her defection to Reform now is when.
Given that Braverman has basically flounced out of the contest with "you're all a bunch of liberals who wouldn't listen to me" the only question over her defection to Reform now is when.
And shortly afterward, how soon she leaves again having realised Nigel will have no other leader when they are looking good - and weirdly the party base seem a bit hostile.
Given that Braverman has basically flounced out of the contest with "you're all a bunch of liberals who wouldn't listen to me" the only question over her defection to Reform now is when.
She may have also realised that she doesn't fancy spending 5 years as opposition leader trying to rebuild the party only to be pipped by someone who looks fresher closer to the event. This way she gets to stand at the sidelines and pitch "RETVRN!".
All of the others will also struggle to rebuild the party; they are either single angle weirdos, lack any element of personal authority or both (the majority).
Given that Braverman has basically flounced out of the contest with "you're all a bunch of liberals who wouldn't listen to me" the only question over her defection to Reform now is when.
I wonder if, following her flounce, she'll hasten over to the US, to join other UK has-beens and undesirables in cuddling up to Trump (yes, I know she's still an MP, and has responsibilities here, but the same applies to Farage...).
The episode "TORY LEADERSHIP SPECIAL with Henry Hill" is very instructive as to how the leadership race is shaping up.
There's an interesting bit towards the end when Henry Hill, who is deputy editor of Conservative Home, speculates on a likely low point for Starmer's government in around two years' time and how the ability to score political points as and when that happens will be the pressure point and big test of the next Conservative leader. He was reflecting on how it was perceived by Tory MPs in 2003, that Duncan-Smith was not able to exploit what they saw as Blair's vulnerabilities.
I am not sure I agree with all of his analysis here but I think the point is relevant to this discussion. The next leader of the Conservative Party needs to make them relevant to the public discourse. I cannot see any of these six being able to do that. Which is why I think they are unlikely to be a major factor in the next election.
The contest will provide plenty of opportunity for candidates to repeat far right lunacy, there'll be lots of calling asylum seekers "illegal" etc, that will encourage the thugs currently attacking police, smashing up property and trying to murder people in hotels.
The contest will provide plenty of opportunity for candidates to repeat far right lunacy, there'll be lots of calling asylum seekers "illegal" etc, that will encourage the thugs currently attacking police, smashing up property and trying to murder people in hotels.
It's been left to Priti Patel to be the voice of (relative) reason:
I'm not sure if it's good or bad news, given that those who might once have voted tory (and that includes younger people, not just the elderly) could well turn to Reform...
I understand that, but from what I hear, the cost of making it means-tested and then ensuring only those who meet the criteria receive it, would far outweigh the cost of just giving everyone a payment that probably doesn’t even cover two months of what they’re paying to the energy companies.
I understand that, but from what I hear, the cost of making it means-tested and then ensuring only those who meet the criteria receive it, would far outweigh the cost of just giving everyone a payment that probably doesn’t even cover two months of what they’re paying to the energy companies.
I'm finding it hard to believe that the government didn't do the sums on that.
I understand that, but from what I hear, the cost of making it means-tested and then ensuring only those who meet the criteria receive it, would far outweigh the cost of just giving everyone a payment that probably doesn’t even cover two months of what they’re paying to the energy companies.
I'm finding it hard to believe that the government didn't do the sums on that.
The government are banking on a large proportion of those eligible (via pension credit) not claiming.
I understand that, but from what I hear, the cost of making it means-tested and then ensuring only those who meet the criteria receive it, would far outweigh the cost of just giving everyone a payment that probably doesn’t even cover two months of what they’re paying to the energy companies.
I'm finding it hard to believe that the government didn't do the sums on that.
I’m not. Starmer and crew are not afraid to do what looks good to their base.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/25/tom-tugendhats-tory-leadership-campaign-mocked-for-turd-acronym
In any case, she got a 6,000+ majority in 2024 so she's safe there for the forseeable future
Yes, the same thought occurred to me. Maybe Braverman will try to form a new party of her own?
Interesting times...
Reform don’t need her, except on their terms. She could have been useful to them if they’d got 10 million votes and no seats, because there’d be a lack of representation for a large body of voters. That was probably her plan. But the worst case scenario came about for her when Reform got its leader, its chairman, its previous sole parliamentary representative and two others elected. She can’t lead them.
Because she's well to the Right of most of the rest of the Tories but sits slap-bang within the Reform range of opinions.
She'll jump ship if she can't persuade the Tories to swing her way.
It rather looks as though she's out in the cold, for the time being, at least. She hasn't yet made a bid for the tory leadership AFAIK.
She may well eventually get enough names of supporting MPs to get on the ballot. But the chat is that she can't. Unless someone does a Margaret Beckett.
Oh, they'll all be fighting like cats in a sack anyway.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/25/finding-labour-a-bit-dull-fear-not-the-tory-fun-factory-is-gearing-up-again
After publishing this biased nonsense, they have the cheek to ask me for money....No chance
John Crace is a parliamentary sketch writer. It’s meant to be amusing, not reportage. I am not sure you normally restrict yourself to sources that strive to be neutral, though…
Please learn the difference between reportage and commentary.
Why no women? It seems that Braverman can't get the nominations, now that Jenrick has hoovered up his 10. Badenoch is facing some embarrassment because the Spectator has revealed comments she seems to have made on a blog some years ago. Perhaps that is causing some potential supporters to hold off in case more damaging comments come to light. And Patel hasn't made a move yet.
Is this really going to be an all male contest?
I still have a feeling that behind the scenes manipulations could lead to a single name being declared winner in time for the party conference.
And running isn’t a bad pitch for that.
OTOH of all the declared candidates I could actually see him as the ‘caretaker for five years’ to steady the ship for the next serious PM candidate.
No, because Badenoch at least will get the votes to run, and maybe someone else too.
OTOH, in the sea of things to criticise the Tories for, about the only thing that I will give them a free pass on is that if there is a woman who is best for the job (in the views of the membership or MPs) of leader, the Tories have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to give it to them.
Other parties (one in particular springs to mind not unadjacent to the government benches) not so much.
I’m aware that’s faint praise but if literally nothing else the Tories will elect women leaders.
Their problems seem to be more serious than I initially assumed, as it feels like none of the possible candidates really have what it takes to rebuild the party.
Given the scale of the tories' defeat, there are probably others I don't know about.
In alphabetical order.....
Cleverly
Badenoch
Jenrick
Patel
Stride
Tugendhat
And shortly afterward, how soon she leaves again having realised Nigel will have no other leader when they are looking good - and weirdly the party base seem a bit hostile.
She may have also realised that she doesn't fancy spending 5 years as opposition leader trying to rebuild the party only to be pipped by someone who looks fresher closer to the event. This way she gets to stand at the sidelines and pitch "RETVRN!".
All of the others will also struggle to rebuild the party; they are either single angle weirdos, lack any element of personal authority or both (the majority).
You didn't learn your ACBs at school?
I wonder if, following her flounce, she'll hasten over to the US, to join other UK has-beens and undesirables in cuddling up to Trump (yes, I know she's still an MP, and has responsibilities here, but the same applies to Farage...).
I was not taught how to type.
Can you unpack that apparent non sequitur for me please?
https://quietriotpod.com/ will take you to a new(ish) Podcast called "Quiet Riot"
The episode "TORY LEADERSHIP SPECIAL with Henry Hill" is very instructive as to how the leadership race is shaping up.
There's an interesting bit towards the end when Henry Hill, who is deputy editor of Conservative Home, speculates on a likely low point for Starmer's government in around two years' time and how the ability to score political points as and when that happens will be the pressure point and big test of the next Conservative leader. He was reflecting on how it was perceived by Tory MPs in 2003, that Duncan-Smith was not able to exploit what they saw as Blair's vulnerabilities.
I am not sure I agree with all of his analysis here but I think the point is relevant to this discussion. The next leader of the Conservative Party needs to make them relevant to the public discourse. I cannot see any of these six being able to do that. Which is why I think they are unlikely to be a major factor in the next election.
YMMV, of course. And I may be completely wrong.
AFZ
Jenrick, for instance, wants to reintroduce the Rwanda lunacy, and we all know how well that went...
It's been left to Priti Patel to be the voice of (relative) reason:
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1820372750638239989
(although that elides over her part in mainstreaming this vocabulary)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/07/robert-jenrick-criticised-for-saying-people-shouting-allahu-akbar-should-be-arrested
Or indeed "Jesus is Lord".
I have a suspicion that Jenryck's understanding of Islam is somewhat superficial.
I have a suspicion that Jenryck's understanding of everything is somewhat superficial.
At Best
His name is Jenrick. The mis-speeling - Jenryck - reminds me of the firm that puts Glenryck Pilchards into tins.
The pilchards may well have more intelligence, being, as I suppose, Happy British Fish. They are tasty, anyway.
I'm not sure if it's good or bad news, given that those who might once have voted tory (and that includes younger people, not just the elderly) could well turn to Reform...
The current policy of winter fuel allowance will surely attract the remaining pensioners to vote Labour
I'm finding it hard to believe that the government didn't do the sums on that.
The government are banking on a large proportion of those eligible (via pension credit) not claiming.
I’m not. Starmer and crew are not afraid to do what looks good to their base.