Launching a military operation away from a home base is always high risk, doing so in a neutral country also carries significant diplomatic risk. And, the gains to Ukraine would be small - the destruction of a few aircraft and some other military equipment that may, or may not, be transferred back to Russia where it may, or may not, be used in the ongoing offensive against Ukraine.
Besides, as Israel seems to be bombing anything that the new Syrian army might use it's possible that they'll take out the Khmeimim base anyway.
Launching a military operation away from a home base is always high risk, doing so in a neutral country also carries significant diplomatic risk. And, the gains to Ukraine would be small - the destruction of a few aircraft and some other military equipment that may, or may not, be transferred back to Russia where it may, or may not, be used in the ongoing offensive against Ukraine.
Besides, as Israel seems to be bombing anything that the new Syrian army might use it's possible that they'll take out the Khmeimim base anyway.
And yourself @Alan Cresswell,, but Rimsky-Korsakov! Israel bombing a Russian base?!
It's but a small step from bombing hospitals and schools, or aid convoys.
Yeah, but they don't have nukes.
Israel probably claims they do.
Aye, they would have if Gazans had 'research' facilities like Syria.
After watching Labour's Streeting on Question Time last night, I found this interesting. Assad was possibly helped to stay in power by the legacy of Blair's 2003 invasion of Iraq.
It's but a small step from bombing hospitals and schools, or aid convoys.
Yeah, but they don't have nukes.
Israel probably claims they do.
Aye, they would have if Gazans had 'research' facilities like Syria.
After watching Labour's Streeting on Question Time last night, I found this interesting. Assad was possibly helped to stay in power by the legacy of Blair's 2003 invasion of Iraq.
I wonder how the Americans also helped to keep Assad in power. After all, if we had not intervened when ISIS was strong, they would have likely overthrown the dictator themselves. But that would have created a nastier Middle East.
The poor dears only have at least a billion with which to eek out a refugee existence in Moscow.
A 2022 US State Department report to Congress said the extended Assad family's net worth was between $1bn (£790m) and $2bn (£1.6bn) - though it noted that it was difficult to estimate because their assets are "believed to be spread out and concealed in numerous accounts, real estate portfolios, corporations, and offshore tax havens".
Considering how horrendous the Assad regime was (ie the stories of the torture chambers in his prisons and the war crimes against his people) I could see the new Syrian government wanting to take revenge against the man himself, maybe along the eye for an eye category. Assad had been known to send out assassins to eliminate his enemies even when they had sought safety in other countries. I don't think Russia's asylum will be very safe for him.
In any case, I hope the new regime can work with other countries to recoup some of the billions Assad stole from his people.
I'm beginning to hear some cautious optimism from Orthodox circles along the lines that Syria might just make it to stability if all pull together across religious divides.
Just watch Trump f*ck this all up. As he did Iran. There again it was Obama who f*cked up Libya, with the French. He looked weak over Syria too because the UK parliament rightly would not get in to another small war to lose like the previous two. Happy Days!
I find the rebel group doing all the right things for now. Let's give it some time.
There are reports of churches being vandalised and ethnic/sectarian cleansing targeting Alawites, but it's very hard to verify them or know how widespread they are. Western powers are obviously keen to make nice with the new proto-regime, and journalists are reliant on access via Turkey for their reporting.
I find the rebel group doing all the right things for now. Let's give it some time.
There are reports of churches being vandalised and ethnic/sectarian cleansing targeting Alawites, but it's very hard to verify them or know how widespread they are. Western powers are obviously keen to make nice with the new proto-regime, and journalists are reliant on access via Turkey for their reporting.
It's also not clear whether the reports of sectarian or ethnic violence is because HTS doesn't have full control over the country and other groups are involved in these actions. The situation is fluid, as they say, and with the fall of one regime there's always going to be a period before a functioning police force and associated legal systems are back in place - with that period almost certainly varying with location.
We know that in Idlib where HTS has been in control for several years there is more tolerance of sectarian, religious and ethnic differences - but, that's also a small area where those differences would be less than across the whole country (no significant Alawite communities in that area, for example). But, HTS has cracked down very hard on the more extreme Islamist groups in Idlib (especially Al Qaeda and ISIS, which have been effectively destroyed as functioning organisations in Idlib) so they don't seem to be adverse to violent suppression of groups they disagree with. Of course, those more extreme Islamist groups are present elsewhere in Iraq and may, or may not, be willing to cooperate with the less Islamist agenda that HTS is currently saying they'll follow.
I find the rebel group doing all the right things for now. Let's give it some time.
There are reports of churches being vandalised and ethnic/sectarian cleansing targeting Alawites, but it's very hard to verify them or know how widespread they are. Western powers are obviously keen to make nice with the new proto-regime, and journalists are reliant on access via Turkey for their reporting.
That latter bit is a bit hard to analyze, since Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite and the Alawites were a core group of supporters for his regime. Though I suppose if you're on the receiving end of it you probably don't care whether it's ethnic/sectarian cleansing or politically motivated reprisals.
I just hope Trump can't f*ck it up via Israel and from the US base in the SSE. Just leave them the hell alone and take out their (Iraqi-Syrian ISIS Sunni...) enemies. Europe needs to really step up. As the UK has. Hopefully Israel will restrain itself because Syria is now Sunni. And yes, so are the Palestinians, but that's along a different axis. So Israel must pull back in to the Golan (the irony), ASAP. Israel could earn tacit acknowledgement if it protected the new Iraqi regime, although the threat is out east. And I'm sorry but Christians and Shia Alawites need to bow the knee.
I presume the ISIS types in E. Syria includes Iraqis, from the Iraqi Sunni minority. ISIS seemed to be a Sunni reaction to Iraqi post-strongman sectarianism in significant part. And the US area is at 6 o'clock on the eastwards sloping up Jordan border.
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Aye. If they could, they would already. Now would be the time!
There’s also the small point that they really don’t need to.
Besides, as Israel seems to be bombing anything that the new Syrian army might use it's possible that they'll take out the Khmeimim base anyway.
I bow to you on that @betjemaniac.
And yourself @Alan Cresswell,, but Rimsky-Korsakov! Israel bombing a Russian base?!
Yeah, but they don't have nukes.
Israel probably claims they do.
Aye, they would have if Gazans had 'research' facilities like Syria.
After watching Labour's Streeting on Question Time last night, I found this interesting. Assad was possibly helped to stay in power by the legacy of Blair's 2003 invasion of Iraq.
I wonder how the Americans also helped to keep Assad in power. After all, if we had not intervened when ISIS was strong, they would have likely overthrown the dictator themselves. But that would have created a nastier Middle East.
BBC
In any case, I hope the new regime can work with other countries to recoup some of the billions Assad stole from his people.
But it does depend who you listen to.
There are reports of churches being vandalised and ethnic/sectarian cleansing targeting Alawites, but it's very hard to verify them or know how widespread they are. Western powers are obviously keen to make nice with the new proto-regime, and journalists are reliant on access via Turkey for their reporting.
We know that in Idlib where HTS has been in control for several years there is more tolerance of sectarian, religious and ethnic differences - but, that's also a small area where those differences would be less than across the whole country (no significant Alawite communities in that area, for example). But, HTS has cracked down very hard on the more extreme Islamist groups in Idlib (especially Al Qaeda and ISIS, which have been effectively destroyed as functioning organisations in Idlib) so they don't seem to be adverse to violent suppression of groups they disagree with. Of course, those more extreme Islamist groups are present elsewhere in Iraq and may, or may not, be willing to cooperate with the less Islamist agenda that HTS is currently saying they'll follow.
That latter bit is a bit hard to analyze, since Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite and the Alawites were a core group of supporters for his regime. Though I suppose if you're on the receiving end of it you probably don't care whether it's ethnic/sectarian cleansing or politically motivated reprisals.