I don't think anyone with even the slightest acquaintance with software engineering could read Neil Ferguson's tweet today without a cold chill running down their spine.
If anyone would like to volunteer in a non-NHS stylee, momentum has repurposed its find your nearest marginal website to find your nearest community aid group - link.
On a more positive note, the call for 250000 volunteers has been responded to by about 400000 people.
I don't think this is necessarily a good thing. If this is part of running a functional health service, then it should be paid roles (bearing in mind that there are people who perform similar roles for the NHS already -- who have since been outsourced and are sometimes working for subcontractors who don't offer sick pay).
Even on a purely pragmatic basis, it's going to be better to have a smaller number of full time employees doing these tasks and reduce those who are put at risk.
The roles described are not generally undertaken by NHS staff, we don’t normally deliver food and medicines, or act as befrienders or transport staff. We do have volunteer hospital car drivers. Voluntary befriender schemes have existed for a long time and charities often run similar programs, food parcels are likewise something normally offered by charities like the Salvation Army.
"Patient Transport Service (PTS) drivers drive disabled, elderly, sick or vulnerable people to and from outpatient clinics, day care centres and routine hospital admissions."
"You might be part of a two-person team using a specially-designed ambulance with a tail-lift for wheelchairs, carrying several people on each journey. Alternatively, you might work on your own, driving a standard car to transport one or two able-bodied people at a time. "
"Patient Transport volunteer: This role supports the NHS by providing transport to patients who are medically fit for discharge, and ensuring that they are settled safely back in to their home."
There's a fairly clear overlap there -- and one that involves people being put at risk of infection. So no, I don't think volunteering should be used to create a reserve army of labor to stifle the perfectly reasonable demands of existing workers, and the only thing it is guaranteed to save is money, it doesn't necessarily save lives.
I’ve put off posting for a variety of reasons, but think it might help @orfeo to understand why school staff (who will be put on unpaid leave if schools close) still want them shut. I’ll leave out the practical kid stuff, like the overcrowding, lack of hygiene facilities (school with 600 kids, and fewer than 20 toilets, for a start) and the sheer grottiness of most kids, the inability to get them to socially distance, or adequately clean and just explain what is actually happening since all the new rules came in.
There have always been a group of parents for whom school drop offs and pick ups are the highlight of their day - My base school (I work in several) has an enrolment of 600 kids. About 90 parents usually turn up an hour before bell times, hang around and chat with their friends. That number has now increased quite markedly, as more people are home/unemployed, and schools are one of the few places you can still congregate. After all, schools are ‘exempt’ from the social distancing requirements, and therefore, people believe they are safe from the virus... Most of our staff meeting on Monday was devoted to ways of getting our parent body to arrive much closer to the bell, to socially distance themselves, and to spread out around the school, instead of congregating in classrooms. I was in a prep class yesterday - along with the parents who do drop their kids and go within, sat, 10 minutes, there were 5 parents, several younger siblings, and *the older siblings who were off school because they were sick*, hanging around the classroom who. Would. Not. Leave. They finally left when the 9am bell went, and I was marking the roll...
Believe me, I have heard every one of the reasons for keeping schools open. I know, personally, the kids who will be put at risk by being kept home. I still want schools closed, because there is no way this is going to end well if things stay open. The parents who are pulling their kids out? In my community, they are mostly health workers, because they simply can’t risk their kid coming home with Covid 19 and giving it to them.
On a more positive note, the call for 250000 volunteers has been responded to by about 400000 people.
I don't think this is necessarily a good thing. If this is part of running a functional health service, then it should be paid roles (bearing in mind that there are people who perform similar roles for the NHS already -- who have since been outsourced and are sometimes working for subcontractors who don't offer sick pay).
Even on a purely pragmatic basis, it's going to be better to have a smaller number of full time employees doing these tasks and reduce those who are put at risk.
The roles described are not generally undertaken by NHS staff, we don’t normally deliver food and medicines, or act as befrienders or transport staff. We do have volunteer hospital car drivers. Voluntary befriender schemes have existed for a long time and charities often run similar programs, food parcels are likewise something normally offered by charities like the Salvation Army.
"Patient Transport Service (PTS) drivers drive disabled, elderly, sick or vulnerable people to and from outpatient clinics, day care centres and routine hospital admissions."
"You might be part of a two-person team using a specially-designed ambulance with a tail-lift for wheelchairs, carrying several people on each journey. Alternatively, you might work on your own, driving a standard car to transport one or two able-bodied people at a time. "
"Patient Transport volunteer: This role supports the NHS by providing transport to patients who are medically fit for discharge, and ensuring that they are settled safely back in to their home."
There's a fairly clear overlap there -- and one that involves people being put at risk of infection. So no, I don't think volunteering should be used to create a reserve army of labor to stifle the perfectly reasonable demands of existing workers, and the only thing it is guaranteed to save is money, it doesn't necessarily save lives.
Turning the excel building into 4000 bed field hospital does not mean we should not build more hospitals, or that it is the best way of doing things on a routine basis. Nor is putting prequalified staff straight out into the frontline.
Nor do we normally convert operating theatres into icus (and even if the NHS had been properly funded we’d still need extraordinary measures to meet the demand surge).
A volunteer expansion is temporary - there roles will be limited and I doubt they will have the same level of training as the paid staff. Come to that they’ll struggle to get everyone crb checked. It is not the same role and will not be sustainable as a long term measure.
I oppose outsourcing and I believe everyone should get sick pay.
But that doesn’t mean that we don’t need tens of thousands of volunteers *right now*.
On a more positive note, the call for 250000 volunteers has been responded to by about 400000 people.
Hardly surprising, given that it’s pretty much the only way out of the lockdown for many people. I’ve considered it myself, but as I’m in an at risk group they won’t have me.
Just a bit of traffic direction, Shipmates. There is now a thread in All Saints (Coping with COVID-19) for personal sharing, rather than discussion of issues. Please take comments along those lines to the AS thread.
We already know the things that will make us healthy and prolong our lives. And some people decide that smoking, drinking, eating, and zero exercise is what makes life worth living, or at least bearable.
It's different. Dramatic? Well that's going to depend on what you mean by dramatic ... the total number who die or suffer long-term complications from covid-19 is still likely to be dwarfed by smoking, except covid-19 will put that hit on health services over a few months rather than spread out over decades.
Of course, smoking is a choice that mostly impacts the smoker, we haven't yet reached the point where we ban that form of self-harm is made illegal (though, access to some medical procedures is becoming dependent on giving up smoking). It took a long time between recognising the dangers of smoke and legal measures to protect non-smokers (banning smoking indoors and public spaces).
One aspect of risk that is always present is sensory perception. We tolerate risks that we can sense (eg: the smell of cigarette smoke) far better than risks that we can't perceive - in my own field of work that would be radiation, which generates greater fear simply because people can't feel when they're receiving a larger radiation dose; we're seeing something similar now because people can't see the virus, can't tell whether someone in the street is carrying the virus.
Yes. A young lady, wearing a face mask, was visibly startled by encountering me, not at particularly close quarters, in the Co-Op this morning. My aspect is not especially Hideous (I hope), but she was clearly afraid of me - yes, a very odd feeling.
BTW, I don't think we see as many people smoking in the streets in the UK as we used to (I mean before the lockdown emptied the streets!)
It's Surprising the number of people who seem to think they can catch the virus by smiling and saying 'Hallo'.
On another point, I suppose the Diana-worshippers will be thinking Charles' infection is a Divine judgement and praying for him to die so that William can be king.
It's Surprising the number of people who seem to think they can catch the virus by smiling and saying 'Hallo'.
.
I've been noticing the smiling thing, too. Yesterday my son took me for a drive. He knew to slow down when we passed people with dogs. I would look at the dog and smile and then look at the owner, while still smiling, and watch them look frightened and turn their heads quickly away. I was about eight feet away behind a rolled up car window!
If addressed by one of my neighbours whilst they are passing the Ark, I hold out my Walking Stick at arm's length - total distance abut 2 metres (I have long arms).
This causes (a) amusement, and (b) friendly chat.
Actually, the gangplank from Ark to shore is over 3 metres, anyway, but...
At last, some joggers are veering out of the way. Up to now, they have been aiming directly at me with no deviation, all young guys, of course. I don't know if they think it's nonsense, or they are young and immortal.
It reminds me of Invasion of the Bodysnatchers, various versions. In the Donald Sutherland one, there's an awful shot of him pointing to someone, who hasn't been contaminated. The other odd thing is, I am sleeping like a log. As they say in therapy, the catastrophe has already happened. My wife said her OCD clients have relaxed.
I'm finding that I look forward to sleep, because my dream life, although surrealistic, puts me in contact with people I otherwise can't see just now. The pleasant dreams, anyway, which thankfully seem to be in the majority.
Yesterday, the governor of Idaho issued a 21 day Stay at Home Order. This is significant since Idaho is one of the most conservative states in the Union. Previously, he had said if he could see community spread he would issue the order. At this point, Idaho has 132--a relatively small number, but I think he wants to keep it small.
I also think it is significant because it is counter to what 45 wants. Idaho again is the one state that is most Trumpian. Seems like they are breaking away from his wishes.
And I like the fact he made it 21 days, rather than 14. It is always easier to lift the order if things stabilize than it is to extend it if things continue to get worse. I am hoping he will be able to lift it by 14 days, but it can be longer than 21, I know.
It reminds me of Invasion of the Bodysnatchers, various versions. In the Donald Sutherland one, there's an awful shot of him pointing to someone, who hasn't been contaminated. The other odd thing is, I am sleeping like a log. As they say in therapy, the catastrophe has already happened. My wife said her OCD clients have relaxed.
Great shot, that. I actually have that on the bulletin board in my classroom.
And you should go to youtube and listen closely to the music in that scene.
I also think it is significant because it is counter to what 45 wants. Idaho again is the one state that is most Trumpian. Seems like they are breaking away from his wishes.
If we go by the 2016 election Idaho is actually the fifth most Trumpian state, since he won the state 59.3%/27.5%, a margin of "only" 31.8 percentage points. The list of the top five Trumpiest states, as ranked by Trump's margin of victory* in the 2016 election, are:
Wyoming (46.3 pp)
West Virginia (42.1 pp)
Oklahoma (36.4 pp)
North Dakota (35.7 pp)
Idaho (31.8 pp)
But yes, Idaho is a very Trumpian state, even if it's not the "most Trumpian".
The other odd thing is, I am sleeping like a log. As they say in therapy, the catastrophe has already happened. My wife said her OCD clients have relaxed.
Yes, I had terrible anxiety induced insomnia in February but improved in recent weeks. Of course, now I’m sleeping like a log because I’m exhausted because of probable corona virus...
The other odd thing is, I am sleeping like a log. As they say in therapy, the catastrophe has already happened. My wife said her OCD clients have relaxed.
Yes, I had terrible anxiety induced insomnia in February but improved in recent weeks. Of course, now I’m sleeping like a log because I’m exhausted because of probable corona virus...
I rather wish I could hibernate (or whatever the spring equivalent is) until it's all over.
I don't even think West Virginia counts. Hillary went to WV and told them all that coal mining was never coming back and half the state rose up in anger. She was speaking the truth, but Hillary did way too much of that. God love her, and I always will, she could be stunningly tactless at times. She thinks people are smarter than they are, while Trump aims for the lowest rung of the Idiocracy and it continues to serve him well.
I don't even think West Virginia counts. Hillary went to WV and told them all that coal mining was never coming back and half the state rose up in anger. She was speaking the truth, but Hillary did way too much of that.
In 2012 West Virginia was the fifth Romniest (Romneyist?) state with a margin of 26.8 pp. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Bill Clinton in 1996. The state has been moving steadily more Republican ever since. The trajectory of West Virginia is a fairly good object lesson in the Republican Southern Strategy. (It's debatable whether West Virginia counts as "the South" in strictest terms, but electorally speaking it was usually counted as a member of the Solid South.) Anyway, here's the trajectory of West Virginia over the last eight presidential elections.
The first value is the percentage point margin by which the party carried West Virginia. The second is "partisan lean", meaning how far West Virginia leans when compared to the United States as a whole. For example, Democrats carried the state by ~13 pp in 1992, but they won the national popular vote by ~6 pp that year, so West Virginia was 7 pp more Democratic than the country as a whole in 1992. The trajectory of West Virginia's partisan lean is pretty clear. I'm not sure avoiding telling coal miners a truth they're already living is going to turn around a quarter-century long trend.
List of countries with at least 5,000 known COVID-19 cases.
United States - 82,174 (79,133 / 1,864 / 1,177)
China - 81,285 (3,947 / 74,051 / 3,287) 4.3%
Italy - 80,589 (62,013 / 10,361 / 8,215)
Spain - 56,347 (45,178 / 7,015 / 4,154)
Germany - 43,646 (37,711 / 5,673 / 262)
Iran - 29,406 (16,715 / 10,457 / 2,234)
France - 29,155 (22,511 / 4,948 / 1,696)
Switzerland - 11,811 (11,489 / 131 / 191)
United Kingdom - 11,658 (10,945 / 135 / 578)
South Korea - 9,241 (4,966 / 4,144 / 131)
Netherlands - 7,431 (6,994 / 3 / 434)
Austria - 6,847 (6,686 / 112 / 49)
Belgium - 6,235 (5,340 / 675 / 220)
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1. At the moment China is the only country to meet that criteria.
Since the last compilation Belgium has joined the club no one wants to join. Also, someone has finally displaced longtime leader China for the #1 spot (assuming China isn't cooking their books again).
China does have an advantage that many don’t and that is the effectiveness of a repressive government. Once they pull their heads out of the sand. Hospitals built in 10 days. Effective quarantine.
Of course, we could be just as effective if we except used common sense.
In other words, we are fucked.
I think Croesos' helpful summaries may well come from this website.
For those of you who are comfortable with looking in more detail, you can find that by clicking on the name of the country in the countries table, For example, if you click on the USA you get this state by state picture.
Andrew Cuomo's comment that New York is the "canary", the ongoing warning about how bad things can get and probably will get for states which are further behind in feeling the impact of the virus, is I suppose open to some criticism. Population density must be a factor as well, and of course a number of states have already introduced some pretty tough social distancing instructions. But the risks are there, and if you have been following the developing state patterns it would seem very foolish to ignore Cuomo's warning.
But that is exactly what the President of the United States is doing.
Yeah, this aged badly (while it seems unlikely that the infection now was down to an event on the 3rd, we don't know how long he carried on doing this for and one of the issues has been people his age adopting the same breezy approach)
Dominic Cummings will be running the country, then? Or Rishi? Unless Gove knifes him first.
Will there be a spike in the birth rate in 9 months' time I wonder? Not if people are keeping their distance, I suppose.
Dominic Cummings will be running the country, then? Or Rishi? Unless Gove knifes him first.
Will there be a spike in the birth rate in 9 months' time I wonder? Not if people are keeping their distance, I suppose.
There is an expected birth rate spike. People are people.
Comments
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713?s=20
Shall we just proceed directly to consulting of entrails?
From that first link:
"Patient Transport Service (PTS) drivers drive disabled, elderly, sick or vulnerable people to and from outpatient clinics, day care centres and routine hospital admissions."
"You might be part of a two-person team using a specially-designed ambulance with a tail-lift for wheelchairs, carrying several people on each journey. Alternatively, you might work on your own, driving a standard car to transport one or two able-bodied people at a time. "
From the volunteer link:
"Patient Transport volunteer: This role supports the NHS by providing transport to patients who are medically fit for discharge, and ensuring that they are settled safely back in to their home."
There's a fairly clear overlap there -- and one that involves people being put at risk of infection. So no, I don't think volunteering should be used to create a reserve army of labor to stifle the perfectly reasonable demands of existing workers, and the only thing it is guaranteed to save is money, it doesn't necessarily save lives.
There have always been a group of parents for whom school drop offs and pick ups are the highlight of their day - My base school (I work in several) has an enrolment of 600 kids. About 90 parents usually turn up an hour before bell times, hang around and chat with their friends. That number has now increased quite markedly, as more people are home/unemployed, and schools are one of the few places you can still congregate. After all, schools are ‘exempt’ from the social distancing requirements, and therefore, people believe they are safe from the virus... Most of our staff meeting on Monday was devoted to ways of getting our parent body to arrive much closer to the bell, to socially distance themselves, and to spread out around the school, instead of congregating in classrooms. I was in a prep class yesterday - along with the parents who do drop their kids and go within, sat, 10 minutes, there were 5 parents, several younger siblings, and *the older siblings who were off school because they were sick*, hanging around the classroom who. Would. Not. Leave. They finally left when the 9am bell went, and I was marking the roll...
Believe me, I have heard every one of the reasons for keeping schools open. I know, personally, the kids who will be put at risk by being kept home. I still want schools closed, because there is no way this is going to end well if things stay open. The parents who are pulling their kids out? In my community, they are mostly health workers, because they simply can’t risk their kid coming home with Covid 19 and giving it to them.
Turning the excel building into 4000 bed field hospital does not mean we should not build more hospitals, or that it is the best way of doing things on a routine basis. Nor is putting prequalified staff straight out into the frontline.
Nor do we normally convert operating theatres into icus (and even if the NHS had been properly funded we’d still need extraordinary measures to meet the demand surge).
A volunteer expansion is temporary - there roles will be limited and I doubt they will have the same level of training as the paid staff. Come to that they’ll struggle to get everyone crb checked. It is not the same role and will not be sustainable as a long term measure.
I oppose outsourcing and I believe everyone should get sick pay.
But that doesn’t mean that we don’t need tens of thousands of volunteers *right now*.
Hardly surprising, given that it’s pretty much the only way out of the lockdown for many people. I’ve considered it myself, but as I’m in an at risk group they won’t have me.
Barnabas62
Purgatory Host
Lung health/damage.
I’ve volunteered for the NHS volunteer responders.
It will give me an excuse to be out and about and the puppy can come for the ride too.
Indeed.
It will be interesting to see the science and to see if it changes people’s habits.
Don’t you think it’s rather more dramatic this time?
We already know the things that will make us healthy and prolong our lives. And some people decide that smoking, drinking, eating, and zero exercise is what makes life worth living, or at least bearable.
Of course, smoking is a choice that mostly impacts the smoker, we haven't yet reached the point where we ban that form of self-harm is made illegal (though, access to some medical procedures is becoming dependent on giving up smoking). It took a long time between recognising the dangers of smoke and legal measures to protect non-smokers (banning smoking indoors and public spaces).
One aspect of risk that is always present is sensory perception. We tolerate risks that we can sense (eg: the smell of cigarette smoke) far better than risks that we can't perceive - in my own field of work that would be radiation, which generates greater fear simply because people can't feel when they're receiving a larger radiation dose; we're seeing something similar now because people can't see the virus, can't tell whether someone in the street is carrying the virus.
BTW, I don't think we see as many people smoking in the streets in the UK as we used to (I mean before the lockdown emptied the streets!)
On another point, I suppose the Diana-worshippers will be thinking Charles' infection is a Divine judgement and praying for him to die so that William can be king.
I've been noticing the smiling thing, too. Yesterday my son took me for a drive. He knew to slow down when we passed people with dogs. I would look at the dog and smile and then look at the owner, while still smiling, and watch them look frightened and turn their heads quickly away. I was about eight feet away behind a rolled up car window!
This causes (a) amusement, and (b) friendly chat.
Actually, the gangplank from Ark to shore is over 3 metres, anyway, but...
I also think it is significant because it is counter to what 45 wants. Idaho again is the one state that is most Trumpian. Seems like they are breaking away from his wishes.
And I like the fact he made it 21 days, rather than 14. It is always easier to lift the order if things stabilize than it is to extend it if things continue to get worse. I am hoping he will be able to lift it by 14 days, but it can be longer than 21, I know.
Great shot, that. I actually have that on the bulletin board in my classroom.
And you should go to youtube and listen closely to the music in that scene.
If we go by the 2016 election Idaho is actually the fifth most Trumpian state, since he won the state 59.3%/27.5%, a margin of "only" 31.8 percentage points. The list of the top five Trumpiest states, as ranked by Trump's margin of victory* in the 2016 election, are:
But yes, Idaho is a very Trumpian state, even if it's not the "most Trumpian".
Yes, I had terrible anxiety induced insomnia in February but improved in recent weeks. Of course, now I’m sleeping like a log because I’m exhausted because of probable corona virus...
I rather wish I could hibernate (or whatever the spring equivalent is) until it's all over.
As long as I'm not the only one left...
Hillary, where art thou now? Thy country hath need of thee...
In 2012 West Virginia was the fifth Romniest (Romneyist?) state with a margin of 26.8 pp. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Bill Clinton in 1996. The state has been moving steadily more Republican ever since. The trajectory of West Virginia is a fairly good object lesson in the Republican Southern Strategy. (It's debatable whether West Virginia counts as "the South" in strictest terms, but electorally speaking it was usually counted as a member of the Solid South.) Anyway, here's the trajectory of West Virginia over the last eight presidential elections.
1988: D+5 / D+12
1992: D+13 / D+7
1996: D+15 / D+6
2000: R+6 / R+7
2004: R+13 / R+10
2008: R+13 / R+20
2012: R+27 / R+31
2016: R+42 / R+44
The first value is the percentage point margin by which the party carried West Virginia. The second is "partisan lean", meaning how far West Virginia leans when compared to the United States as a whole. For example, Democrats carried the state by ~13 pp in 1992, but they won the national popular vote by ~6 pp that year, so West Virginia was 7 pp more Democratic than the country as a whole in 1992. The trajectory of West Virginia's partisan lean is pretty clear. I'm not sure avoiding telling coal miners a truth they're already living is going to turn around a quarter-century long trend.
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1. At the moment China is the only country to meet that criteria.
Since the last compilation Belgium has joined the club no one wants to join. Also, someone has finally displaced longtime leader China for the #1 spot (assuming China isn't cooking their books again).
Altogether now, like the B52s ... 'You're living in you own private Idaho ...'
Of course, we could be just as effective if we except used common sense.
In other words, we are fucked.
For those of you who are comfortable with looking in more detail, you can find that by clicking on the name of the country in the countries table, For example, if you click on the USA you get this state by state picture.
Andrew Cuomo's comment that New York is the "canary", the ongoing warning about how bad things can get and probably will get for states which are further behind in feeling the impact of the virus, is I suppose open to some criticism. Population density must be a factor as well, and of course a number of states have already introduced some pretty tough social distancing instructions. But the risks are there, and if you have been following the developing state patterns it would seem very foolish to ignore Cuomo's warning.
But that is exactly what the President of the United States is doing.
The Prime Minister has it.
Yeah, this aged badly (while it seems unlikely that the infection now was down to an event on the 3rd, we don't know how long he carried on doing this for and one of the issues has been people his age adopting the same breezy approach)
Will there be a spike in the birth rate in 9 months' time I wonder? Not if people are keeping their distance, I suppose.
I doubt it...
The Health Secretary has it too.