The selfies can be merged into one montage which can be displayed whenever the Tories try to include them in the blame for this destructive 'deal'.
Doesn't matter, by next year Labour will be characterised as a bunch of Remain lawyers who are soft on nonces.
I disagree. If things go wrong, the voters will blame the government, not the opposition.
Any problem will be put down to an insufficiently pure Brexit. In any case, having unleashed culture war as a tactic they aren't going to discard it, nor can they.
The selfies can be merged into one montage which can be displayed whenever the Tories try to include them in the blame for this destructive 'deal'.
Doesn't matter, by next year Labour will be characterised as a bunch of Remain lawyers who are soft on nonces.
I disagree. If things go wrong, the voters will blame the government, not the opposition.
If?
Personally, I prefer to be optimistic,
Tell me, can you play a stringed instrument? Do you like transatlantic cruises?
I am by nature an optimist. The problem is that reality continues to break through. The question is not will things go wrong? anyone who's been paying attention knows that they will; the only question is how badly will things go wrong?
I am optimistic that with the advent of this (pathetic) deal there will not be acute food shortages in January 2021 in the UK. But I am not certain.
The selfies can be merged into one montage which can be displayed whenever the Tories try to include them in the blame for this destructive 'deal'.
Doesn't matter, by next year Labour will be characterised as a bunch of Remain lawyers who are soft on nonces.
I disagree. If things go wrong, the voters will blame the government, not the opposition.
Any problem will be put down to an insufficiently pure Brexit. In any case, having unleashed culture war as a tactic they aren't going to discard it, nor can they.
Serious question (because I really don't know the answer): do you think they can sing that song indefinitely or does there come a point when it wears too thin and it no longer works?
The selfies can be merged into one montage which can be displayed whenever the Tories try to include them in the blame for this destructive 'deal'.
Doesn't matter, by next year Labour will be characterised as a bunch of Remain lawyers who are soft on nonces.
I disagree. If things go wrong, the voters will blame the government, not the opposition.
Any problem will be put down to an insufficiently pure Brexit. In any case, having unleashed culture war as a tactic they aren't going to discard it, nor can they.
Serious question (because I really don't know the answer): do you think they can sing that song indefinitely or does there come a point when it wears too thin and it no longer works?
I think that since the early 10s they've had various half hearted attempts to start a culture war, and the last few years of issues and media coverage have made that more real. I suspect that the rumours around camps for refugees and bringing back the death penalty are trial balloons for more of the same (i.e most of it won't be around Brexit necessarily, but it'll all be conducted with the same level of sound and fury).
I think the Government, and Mr Johnson in particular, have sufficiently identified themselves with the deal that if everything falls over in a way that is obviously a direct consequence of the deal, then 'But Labour voted for it too!' will be at best a defensive move.
However, I don't think that will happen. There will be no obvious 'I told you so!' for Remain. Instead:
1. Initial chaos will be blamed on teething troubles and obstructiveness on the part of the French.
2. Over time, businesses will adapt and pass on the costs to the consumer. However, Brexit-related inflation will not be easily separable from general inflation.
3. Some businesses will fail because of the extra barriers. These will mostly be businesses that were already struggling, or that at least had structural problems that could be seen in hindsight.
4. Businesses who didn't invest because they were afraid of no-deal will start investing because at least they know where they stand. To an extent, this will mask the effects of (2) and (3).
5. (Less certain about this) I think there are still negotiations outstanding, or likely to start, regarding services, especially financial services, despite Mr Johnson's pretence to have it all wrapped up. The gains from this will add to (4).
Oh for fuck's sake, have people learned NOTHING from the unholy mess while Theresa May was PM?
If you don't vote for the deal on the table, the deal that you want instead doesn't magically appear because the UK is only one party to the negotiation.
Good on the Labor leader for understanding this and intending to vote Yes. There's a couple of days left before No Deal happens by default. Those are the only 2 options.
And to everyone everywhere suggesting that abstaining or voting no are options because of some political message, I want to come and hit you with a very large and VERY heavy clue stick.
I don't think many of us are under any illusion that there is any outcome possible at this point, other than no deal or the deal on the table.
Abstention would be an appropriate action for Labour, IMO, as either of the alternatives would be used as a stick to beat them with. Vote against and they're remainers who want to cancel Brexit and defy The Will Of The People.
Vote for the deal and they give cover for Johnson when people start to realise what a pup they've been sold. They also hand the SNP a propaganda coup - "Labour and the Tories dragged us out of the EU against our will." Scexit then becomes (even) more likely.
There is effectively zero chance of Johnson's deal being defeated by Tory and SNP votes alone.
Maybe if people actually spent a little more time on the reality of things and a little less time on the optics of them, we'd start getting the policies we need instead of the politics we apparently deserve.
And to everyone everywhere suggesting that abstaining or voting no are options because of some political message, I want to come and hit you with a very large and VERY heavy clue stick.
The Tories have an 80 seat majority, and group most likely to rebel (the ERG) have pronounced themselves satisfied with the deal. There's no need to give the government a free stick to beat the opposition with in future.
In any case it appears this is one elephant trap that the opposition are very happy to walk into.
And again, everything focuses on what can be fitted into a 10 second soundbite ("you voted for this") over the complexities of the real world ("here's why we voted for this"). My God it's depressing.
2. Over time, businesses will adapt and pass on the costs to the consumer. However, Brexit-related inflation will not be easily separable from general inflation.
3. Some businesses will fail because of the extra barriers. These will mostly be businesses that were already struggling, or that at least had structural problems that could be seen in hindsight.
Additionally the impact of Covid will be hard to separate from the failures caused by Brexit, there'll be plenty of failures in the hospitality sector and retail down to the former that will trump news of Airbus shuttering facilities in Broughton or Honda scaling back in Swindon.
The impact of a cut to the growth rate will only be seen in the longer term anyway; when British tourists wonder why the Polish and Portguese tourists in the Schengen lane look more prosperous, or when tradesmen travel to the Continent (again) in search of work, rather than the other way around.
The selfies can be merged into one montage which can be displayed whenever the Tories try to include them in the blame for this destructive 'deal'.
Doesn't matter, by next year Labour will be characterised as a bunch of Remain lawyers who are soft on nonces.
I disagree. If things go wrong, the voters will blame the government, not the opposition.
If?
Personally, I prefer to be optimistic,
Tell me, can you play a stringed instrument?
No
Do you like transatlantic cruises?
Never done one
I am by nature an optimist. The problem is that reality continues to break through. The question is not will things go wrong? anyone who's been paying attention knows that they will; the only question is how badly will things go wrong?
I am optimistic that with the advent of this (pathetic) deal there will not be acute food shortages in January 2021 in the UK. But I am not certain.
Oh for fuck's sake, have people learned NOTHING from the unholy mess while Theresa May was PM?
If you don't vote for the deal on the table, the deal that you want instead doesn't magically appear because the UK is only one party to the negotiation.
Good on the Labor leader for understanding this and intending to vote Yes. There's a couple of days left before No Deal happens by default. Those are the only 2 options.
And to everyone everywhere suggesting that abstaining or voting no are options because of some political message, I want to come and hit you with a very large and VERY heavy clue stick.
I don't think many of us are under any illusion that there is any outcome possible at this point, other than no deal or the deal on the table.
Abstention would be an appropriate action for Labour, IMO, as either of the alternatives would be used as a stick to beat them with. Vote against and they're remainers who want to cancel Brexit and defy The Will Of The People.
Vote for the deal and they give cover for Johnson when people start to realise what a pup they've been sold. They also hand the SNP a propaganda coup - "Labour and the Tories dragged us out of the EU against our will." Scexit then becomes (even) more likely.
There is effectively zero chance of Johnson's deal being defeated by Tory and SNP votes alone.
Maybe if people actually spent a little more time on the reality of things and a little less time on the optics of them, we'd start getting the policies we need instead of the politics we apparently deserve.
Unfortunately it's prisoners' dilemma. If you ignore the optics you lose to the PR-savvy.
Covid, has, I think, put paid to the tide of general rejoicing we were promised/threatened with at 11.00 p.m. GMT tonight. Big Ben is to be specially bonged!
Chris Grey in his latest blog post makes the point that this deal is essentially the one Theresa May set out to negotiate in her Lancaster House speech. The only substantive difference is that there is no "Irish backstop", against which Boris and the ERG expended so much ire. The backstop (and the phantasmagorical "alternative arrangements") has been replaced by a frontstop, where NI remains in the single market and the customs union, and there is a border in the Irish sea.
Therefore Boris has extracted us from the EU single market and customs union by breaking up the UK single market and customs union. The fact that his lickspittles are hailing this national humiliation as a triumph must surely be the crowning glory in the mendacious career of this appalling man.
What the deal is is essentially the offer the EU put on the table more than 2 years ago, when the UK government indicated that the "Norway-style" deal with the UK remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union wasn't going to be on the table, with some minor amendments. The UK version of that document was scrapped almost immediately - negotiations worked through the EU document editing it line by line. Which is, of course, entirely to be expected since the EU held all the cards.
When the UK negotiators have had their late break for Christmas they'll start talks with the new US government ... and be in the same position of negotiating from a weak position wanting a lot from the US (a deal of any form being what they promised, and quickly) with nothing to offer.
Chris Grey in his latest blog post makes the point that this deal is essentially the one Theresa May set out to negotiate in her Lancaster House speech. The only substantive difference is that there is no "Irish backstop", against which Boris and the ERG expended so much ire. The backstop (and the phantasmagorical "alternative arrangements") has been replaced by a frontstop, where NI remains in the single market and the customs union, and there is a border in the Irish sea.
Therefore Boris has extracted us from the EU single market and customs union by breaking up the UK single market and customs union. The fact that his lickspittles are hailing this national humiliation as a triumph must surely be the crowning glory in the mendacious career of this appalling man.
I remain of the view that Theresa May's single greatest mistake was being a woman.
I know my MP wasn't expecting to be able to speak in the Commons (even via video link) but has said she'll be submitting a written question covering the concerns of constituents. So, though the vote has passed there's still plenty of questions over the deal that need to be answered.
Chris Grey in his latest blog post makes the point that this deal is essentially the one Theresa May set out to negotiate in her Lancaster House speech. The only substantive difference is that there is no "Irish backstop", against which Boris and the ERG expended so much ire. The backstop (and the phantasmagorical "alternative arrangements") has been replaced by a frontstop, where NI remains in the single market and the customs union, and there is a border in the Irish sea.
Therefore Boris has extracted us from the EU single market and customs union by breaking up the UK single market and customs union. The fact that his lickspittles are hailing this national humiliation as a triumph must surely be the crowning glory in the mendacious career of this appalling man.
I remain of the view that Theresa May's single greatest mistake was being a woman.
Possibly. I'd be inclined to think it's more because she backed the wrong horse in the referendum so the Brexiteers could convince themselves it would be better with a leaver in charge. Remarkably little of what was directed at May seemed misogynistic (compared with what was levelled at Diane Abbott or Gina Miller, say).
I know my MP wasn't expecting to be able to speak in the Commons (even via video link) but has said she'll be submitting a written question covering the concerns of constituents. So, though the vote has passed there's still plenty of questions over the deal that need to be answered.
It is entirely possible that, as with the withdrawal agreement, the ERG types will turn against the FTA when they realise its full implications. On the three contentious areas of fisheries, level playing field and governance, the EU has got pretty much everything it wanted and we've had to suck it up (not surprising in such an asymmetric negotiation.) The governance arrangements are so complex that there is scope for either side to terminate the deal somewhere down the road if things really go south.
This might be the berserker's plan - they could get their "clean break", just delayed a bit. There has been a suspicious lack of cries of betrayal - even Farage has rolled over like a pussy cat.
The deal is really only a start and there are many years of negotiation to come on many things, most obviously services. Therefore there is also scope for the UK to move back towards the EU, once the poison of Brexit has drained from our political life. Nil desperandum.
The deal is really only a start and there are many years of negotiation to come on many things, most obviously services. Therefore there is also scope for the UK to move back towards the EU, once the poison of Brexit has drained from our political life. Nil desperandum.
Draining it involves actively challenging the world view that produces it, not triangulating somewhere between normalcy and encouraging it.
You are right, of course, and the five-year review of the agreement due in 2025 allows the government to stoke up the culture war at the next election. "Who do you trust to fight for Britain at the EU trade review? Colonel Boris or remainer lawyer Starmer?"
O I rather hope Colonel Boris will be in the dustbin of history by then. God alone knows who we'll have in his place, but it will be someone who may have to fight for *England*, rather than Britain.
You are right, of course, and the five-year review of the agreement due in 2025 allows the government to stoke up the culture war at the next election. "Who do you trust to fight for Britain at the EU trade review? Colonel Boris or remainer lawyer Starmer?"
Or some such dismal crap. OK then, desperandum.
I think at this point the general public is so sick of it all that even mentioning Europe in any context is an instant vote-loser ...
Larry Elliott of the Guardian reckons Brexit could be really good if we had a Labour government. 《Sigh》Yes Larry, and if I had a flash car, and I was Elvis, and I had this teacup, I'd be grand.
Larry Elliott of the Guardian reckons Brexit could be really good if we had a Labour government. 《Sigh》Yes Larry, and if I had a flash car, and I was Elvis, and I had this teacup, I'd be grand.
That's been my argument with the Bennite lexiter tendency from the beginning - the EU is a capitalist club, yes, but so are the last 40 years of UK cabinets. If we elect a left wing government there will come a point where the EU is a hindrance to a proactive industrial policy but we're so many light years from there right now you need a fucking radio telescope to see it. Cheering on Brexit with a reactionary tory government in power is triple-distilled insanity on stilts.
Larry Elliott of the Guardian reckons Brexit could be really good if we had a Labour government. 《Sigh》Yes Larry, and if I had a flash car, and I was Elvis, and I had this teacup, I'd be grand.
That's been my argument with the Bennite lexiter tendency from the beginning - the EU is a capitalist club, yes, but so are the last 40 years of UK cabinets. If we elect a left wing government there will come a point where the EU is a hindrance to a proactive industrial policy but we're so many light years from there right now you need a fucking radio telescope to see it. Cheering on Brexit with a reactionary tory government in power is triple-distilled insanity on stilts.
Never the less, I hope you will be joining in the celebrations at 11.pm
Larry Elliott of the Guardian reckons Brexit could be really good if we had a Labour government. 《Sigh》Yes Larry, and if I had a flash car, and I was Elvis, and I had this teacup, I'd be grand.
That's been my argument with the Bennite lexiter tendency from the beginning - the EU is a capitalist club, yes, but so are the last 40 years of UK cabinets. If we elect a left wing government there will come a point where the EU is a hindrance to a proactive industrial policy but we're so many light years from there right now you need a fucking radio telescope to see it. Cheering on Brexit with a reactionary tory government in power is triple-distilled insanity on stilts.
Never the less, I hope you will be joining in the celebrations at 11.pm
Yes, the canny British negotiators couldn't even get the time of the change set to midnight in the UK. Anyway, with a few minutes to go I think a wee dram is appropriate for a wake.
A deal (or at least a draft thereof) has been reached between the EU, Spain and the UK about Gibraltar.
Thanks for that link. I don't remember that article being on the local edition page of the Guardian. Below the article itself was a link to another article: "View from the EU: Britain 'taken over by gamblers, liars, clowns and their cheerleaders", well worth a read.
Larry Elliott of the Guardian reckons Brexit could be really good if we had a Labour government. 《Sigh》Yes Larry, and if I had a flash car, and I was Elvis, and I had this teacup, I'd be grand.
That's been my argument with the Bennite lexiter tendency from the beginning - the EU is a capitalist club, yes, but so are the last 40 years of UK cabinets. If we elect a left wing government there will come a point where the EU is a hindrance to a proactive industrial policy but we're so many light years from there right now you need a fucking radio telescope to see it. Cheering on Brexit with a reactionary tory government in power is triple-distilled insanity on stilts.
Never the less, I hope you will be joining in the celebrations at 11.pm
Comments
Personally, I prefer to be optimistic,
Any problem will be put down to an insufficiently pure Brexit. In any case, having unleashed culture war as a tactic they aren't going to discard it, nor can they.
Tell me, can you play a stringed instrument? Do you like transatlantic cruises?
I am by nature an optimist. The problem is that reality continues to break through. The question is not will things go wrong? anyone who's been paying attention knows that they will; the only question is how badly will things go wrong?
I am optimistic that with the advent of this (pathetic) deal there will not be acute food shortages in January 2021 in the UK. But I am not certain.
AFZ
Serious question (because I really don't know the answer): do you think they can sing that song indefinitely or does there come a point when it wears too thin and it no longer works?
AFZ
I think that since the early 10s they've had various half hearted attempts to start a culture war, and the last few years of issues and media coverage have made that more real. I suspect that the rumours around camps for refugees and bringing back the death penalty are trial balloons for more of the same (i.e most of it won't be around Brexit necessarily, but it'll all be conducted with the same level of sound and fury).
However, I don't think that will happen. There will be no obvious 'I told you so!' for Remain. Instead:
1. Initial chaos will be blamed on teething troubles and obstructiveness on the part of the French.
2. Over time, businesses will adapt and pass on the costs to the consumer. However, Brexit-related inflation will not be easily separable from general inflation.
3. Some businesses will fail because of the extra barriers. These will mostly be businesses that were already struggling, or that at least had structural problems that could be seen in hindsight.
4. Businesses who didn't invest because they were afraid of no-deal will start investing because at least they know where they stand. To an extent, this will mask the effects of (2) and (3).
5. (Less certain about this) I think there are still negotiations outstanding, or likely to start, regarding services, especially financial services, despite Mr Johnson's pretence to have it all wrapped up. The gains from this will add to (4).
Maybe if people actually spent a little more time on the reality of things and a little less time on the optics of them, we'd start getting the policies we need instead of the politics we apparently deserve.
And again, everything focuses on what can be fitted into a 10 second soundbite ("you voted for this") over the complexities of the real world ("here's why we voted for this"). My God it's depressing.
Additionally the impact of Covid will be hard to separate from the failures caused by Brexit, there'll be plenty of failures in the hospitality sector and retail down to the former that will trump news of Airbus shuttering facilities in Broughton or Honda scaling back in Swindon.
The impact of a cut to the growth rate will only be seen in the longer term anyway; when British tourists wonder why the Polish and Portguese tourists in the Schengen lane look more prosperous, or when tradesmen travel to the Continent (again) in search of work, rather than the other way around.
Was there anyone wanting to speak against it who missed out?
Unfortunately it's prisoners' dilemma. If you ignore the optics you lose to the PR-savvy.
Therefore Boris has extracted us from the EU single market and customs union by breaking up the UK single market and customs union. The fact that his lickspittles are hailing this national humiliation as a triumph must surely be the crowning glory in the mendacious career of this appalling man.
When the UK negotiators have had their late break for Christmas they'll start talks with the new US government ... and be in the same position of negotiating from a weak position wanting a lot from the US (a deal of any form being what they promised, and quickly) with nothing to offer.
There is more to parliamentary scrutiny than hot air in the commons chamber:
https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/parliaments-role-in-scrutinising-the-uk-eu-trade-and-cooperation-agreement
I remain of the view that Theresa May's single greatest mistake was being a woman.
Point taken, but is there any MP who wanted to give the legislation greater scrutiny?
Possibly. I'd be inclined to think it's more because she backed the wrong horse in the referendum so the Brexiteers could convince themselves it would be better with a leaver in charge. Remarkably little of what was directed at May seemed misogynistic (compared with what was levelled at Diane Abbott or Gina Miller, say).
It is entirely possible that, as with the withdrawal agreement, the ERG types will turn against the FTA when they realise its full implications. On the three contentious areas of fisheries, level playing field and governance, the EU has got pretty much everything it wanted and we've had to suck it up (not surprising in such an asymmetric negotiation.) The governance arrangements are so complex that there is scope for either side to terminate the deal somewhere down the road if things really go south.
This might be the berserker's plan - they could get their "clean break", just delayed a bit. There has been a suspicious lack of cries of betrayal - even Farage has rolled over like a pussy cat.
The deal is really only a start and there are many years of negotiation to come on many things, most obviously services. Therefore there is also scope for the UK to move back towards the EU, once the poison of Brexit has drained from our political life. Nil desperandum.
Draining it involves actively challenging the world view that produces it, not triangulating somewhere between normalcy and encouraging it.
Or some such dismal crap. OK then, desperandum.
I think at this point the general public is so sick of it all that even mentioning Europe in any context is an instant vote-loser ...
... which means that just as Northern Ireland is absorbed within the single market, so Gibraltar is absorbed into Schengenland ...
A large amount of control over the Rock has been handed to Spain.
That's been my argument with the Bennite lexiter tendency from the beginning - the EU is a capitalist club, yes, but so are the last 40 years of UK cabinets. If we elect a left wing government there will come a point where the EU is a hindrance to a proactive industrial policy but we're so many light years from there right now you need a fucking radio telescope to see it. Cheering on Brexit with a reactionary tory government in power is triple-distilled insanity on stilts.
Why would we?
Absolutely not
Yes, apparently Boris' dad has more sense than his son - he's a proud European who voted Remain.
I guess the EU are using CET (Central European Time), which is one hour ahead of UK time, that is, GMT + 1.
I think what you mean is that UK time is one hour behind the time in Brussels*, not the other way around...
*Or as it is known in Brittany by old-timers, l'heure des Allemands.
So the celebration of taking back control in the UK begins at the stroke of midnight ... in Brussels?
Thanks for that link. I don't remember that article being on the local edition page of the Guardian. Below the article itself was a link to another article: "View from the EU: Britain 'taken over by gamblers, liars, clowns and their cheerleaders", well worth a read.
Celebrating what exactly?