Just to add fuel to the flames .....it would appear from the Grauniad that a certain Mr.Stanley Johnson has applied for a French passport
Yes, apparently Boris' dad has more sense than his son - he's a proud European who voted Remain.
I saw this in the French media. Johnson Snr is applying on the basis that his mother was French, but I'm not sure this is sufficient to get him French nationality (having become French myself, I have acquainted myself with the subject in some detail). AIUI a person with one French parent who was not born on French soil needs to live in France for three years before they become eligible for citizenship.
Just to add fuel to the flames .....it would appear from the Grauniad that a certain Mr.Stanley Johnson has applied for a French passport
Yes, apparently Boris' dad has more sense than his son - he's a proud European who voted Remain.
I saw this in the French media. Johnson Snr is applying on the basis that his mother was French, but I'm not sure this is sufficient to get him French nationality (having become French myself, I have acquainted myself with the subject in some detail). AIUI a person with one French parent who was not born on French soil needs to live in France for three years before they become eligible for citizenship.
Oh dear, you mean he isn't entitled to this when he and his revolting brood have built their entire lives on being entitled to everything on a stick.
O come now - be reasonable. One of the brood - Jo - resigned from being an MP so that he could spend less time with his family, didn't he?
It would, however, be amusing if Mr Johnson (Senior) was refused a French passport. One can almost hear the officials saying to each other *United Kingdom? Where and what is this? We know of no such country...*
Not at all BF. I started wishing him (SJ) ill because of his son but then realised that if he honestly considers himself a European and voted to Remain then his case should be judged according to the rules which apply to everyone else. If his family background make him eligible to escape the horror of Brexit, then he should not be barred because his son is an utter shit. (As long as wealth and privilege play no part in him being accepted.)
I gather that the recent biography of Johnson junior blames all his faults on the flaws of Johnson senior, but then I gather that it blames all the events that might lead us to think Johnson junior has faults on other people around him anyway.
I gather that the recent biography of Johnson junior blames all his faults on the flaws of Johnson senior, but then I gather that it blames all the events that might lead us to think Johnson junior has faults on other people around him anyway.
Mind-bogglingly the Johnson thread has become a discussion on best vaccine strategies and this thread has become the nature of 'Boris.'
This is potentially another whole thread again but it is striking how much Fred Trump shaped and formed Donald into the 'man's he is. Similarly if one can see the seeds of Borisness in those early years it really does emphasise again how much we are shaped in those early experiences
And yet, we come, once again to The Sins of fathers...
[...] Similarly if one can see the seeds of Borisness in those early years it really does emphasise again how much we are shaped in those early experiences [...]
I noticed an inane comment by IDS on TV, wishing he was young again, he would be out there trading, blah blah, but then he said, "dominating the world again". Wow, these guys really believe their own propaganda.
IDS wanted us to go 'buccaneering'. Taken literally, he wants us all to be pirates. Don't these people understand what they're saying? On second thoughts, perhaps he does. . .
IDS wanted us to go 'buccaneering'. Taken literally, he wants us all to be pirates. Don't these people understand what they're saying? On second thoughts, perhaps he does. . .
He managed to conflate three quite separate eras in British History. These ‘people are erasing history’ folk really don’t know shit.
Meanwhile, a possibly unlooked-for result of Brexit is the establishment of a new *Internal Border Facility* for hundreds of lorries. It is to be next door to two small villages just inland of Dover, and the locals are aghast at the imminent loss of a great chunk of almost unspoilt countryside, not to mention the thought of the noise and disruption the construction, and then the lorries, will bring.
AIUI, the locals were informed on New Year's Eve that construction would begin on 3rd January, to be completed by July. They are not Happy Bunnies, but I do wonder how many of them might have voted Leave?
95.9% of people in Gibraltar voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 plebiscite. At the last referendum on actual sovereignty (as opposed to Brexit bullshit related failure to understand how treaties work) in 2002 - 99% of the population voted to be British rather than Spanish. I’d do wonder if this will change next time the issue comes up.
So, there's a bit more electronic 'paperwork' (QR codes on apps?) on cross-Channel trade, a few more fish with British passports in the Channel, anything else changed?
It seems like a remarkably pragmatic result which does least harm all round. And that stupid Bojo eh? Saw the way the wind was blowing politically thanks to the real idiot, my kinsman Cameron, sailed them to perfection for an unprincipled - apart from Machiavellian - buccaneering Tory bastard.
I understand that Brits flying into Gibraltar will have to go through a border control. No doubt there is going to be outrage in some quarters.
More from this guy. The Spanish will be able to sail through unimpeded, because Gibraltar will now be part of Schengen (!!), while Brits arriving will have to queue up with all other third countries... at ports and an airport controlled by EU border agency Frontex.
If Gibraltar can get bespoke arrangements, I wonder what the Channel Islands might achieve if they so wished.
Scottish shipmates may also wish to seize on this precedent.
So, there's a bit more electronic 'paperwork' (QR codes on apps?) on cross-Channel trade, a few more fish with British passports in the Channel, anything else changed?
That would be trade in goods.
Can you summarise the new arrangements for financial services delivered by firms in the UK to clients in the EU, please?
Because until the day before yesterday, it was crystal clear, and now, as I understand it, there is no arrangement whatsoever.
So, there's a bit more electronic 'paperwork' (QR codes on apps?) on cross-Channel trade, a few more fish with British passports in the Channel, anything else changed?
That would be trade in goods.
Can you summarise the new arrangements for financial services delivered by firms in the UK to clients in the EU, please?
Because until the day before yesterday, it was crystal clear, and now, as I understand it, there is no arrangement whatsoever.
Oh no! The horror, the humanity of it all!! It will be a catastrophe, a disaster, we'll be eating each other in a fortnight. There again, no arrangement whatsoever is better than none.
So what's happening to existing contracts today? What will happen Monday?
The paperwork is done in advance, linked to a scanned code that is issued to drivers. So, that will need someone in the export firm filling in the paperwork and submitting it (which takes time = money), the agreement allows for that paperwork to be checked while the truck is on the ferry with the only requirement when boarding being that the driver has the code to be scanned which proves paperwork has been submitted. There's also a lot of people employed to check that paperwork , and someone somewhere needs to pay them - which in the absence of an income from tariffs will need to either be an extra fee on exporters (there was talk of licenses issued to businesses to allow them to operate across the borders) and/or paying for this out of tax income. These are all additional costs to the economy - the deal will cost the UK lots more than the financial costs of EU membership, the UK paid about £12b per year to be in the EU, I've not seen calculations of the costs of the deal yet (it may be too soon for people to do the maths) but the transition period was costing the UK more than £50b per year and it wouldn't surprise me if the costs of all that paperwork exceed that.
For fishing, the deal looks like an agreement for the UK to buy back the shares of the quotas that were sold previously. Given that it was possible for the UK to sell those shares of the quotas in the first place, if we'd stayed in the EU then it should have been possible for the government to have got them back anyway to allow the fishing industry to expand - which would make this an almost zero gain for leaving the EU. There would still need to be a mechanism to manage fish stocks which would look very similar to the mechanisms of the CFP.
And, of course, there's an arbitration mechanism that was set up to avoid the direct involvement of the ECJ (though, the ECJ could be asked to comment on European law). As I understand it, the main task of this body would kick in in the event of divergence in regulations between the UK and EU, including government subsidies of business sectors, and in the event of such divergence deciding what tariffs would be appropriate to protect the EU Single Market. In other words, the UK has the theoretical ability to vary regulations but effectively has to maintain regulatory equivalence - without any input into setting those regulations, of course.
So what's happening to existing contracts today? What will happen Monday?
That's what I'm asking you. I seriously don't know the answer to this question, despite having asked around quite a bit.
Oh no! The horror, the humanity of it all!! It will be a catastrophe, a disaster, we'll be eating each other in a fortnight.
I have never been among those predicting doomsday even in the event of No Deal, let alone in the event of a deal. However, the closer one looks at this deal, the more it appears it has delivered a bare minimum allowing Boris to claim he has kept his promise of achieving a deal, and the less substance there appears to be. I find it unbelievable that more noise is not being made about the gaping lack of any agreement on trade in services, for example.
As has been widely commented, the deal is unprecedented in that it is an agreement on creating barriers to trade. That cannot fail to have economic consequences. It has also opened a Pandora's box of other, largely unforeseen consequences. Some of those might just possibly be good, many I think will be negative, but it will take some time before they emerge. No doubt people will muddle through, but I suspect that the poor will suffer the most.
Have you seen how much extra costs there are in exporting to NI?
Next week, I'll be at work discussing the stuff we now have to do at our cost due to brexit. Company health and vehicle insurance for EU travel, extra import paperwork and export paperwork to Ireland and NI. This stuff is here forever, when do I see the wins? link
or the extra packaging costs because we now have a UK CE mark, not the EU CE mark, so companies need three different packages for NI, UK and EU - and the additional costs those companies exporting to the EU now pay to achieve EU CE accreditation.
Or the musicians who can no longer afford to travel to Europe to tour, which will finish off much of what is left of our music industry after covid19 - which created £5.2 billion revenue in the economy in 2018, and £2.7 billion in exports, not including the music tourism to the UK link compared with the £987 million in fish landed in 2019 link*
* I note from that article that mackerel quotas were reduced between 2018 and 2019
Have you seen how much extra costs there are in exporting to NI?
or the extra packaging costs because we now have a UK CE mark, not the EU CE mark, so companies need three different packages for NI, UK and EU - and the additional costs those companies exporting to the EU now pay to achieve EU CE accreditation.
I really should know this, but has that now happened?
I know it (UKCA, UKNI ?, CE) was what they were planning in the absence of anything, and that there is an absence of anything related to it..., but that isn't the same thing (this gov page on UKCA is updated 31st, so I guess that's as official as it can be...)
I think there's been talk of a "grace period" on these sorts of things of a couple of months or so while new arrangements bed in.
Now that the deal is done, the devil is in all these different technical details. They are unlikely to achieve the same media traction as the single issue of Deal or No Deal and will doubtless be dismissed as "a small price to pay for recovering our sovereignty" or some such.
The difficulty lies in the move from nothing to something. Whatever needs doing requires an infrastructure to achieve it and a series of relationships to facilitate the process. Anyone who has ever tried to set up a process from scratch knows what a herculean task this is.
@Alan Cresswell 'the transition period was costing the UK more than £50b per year' go'uh link on that? HMRC says customs 'paperwork' going forward will cost £7.5 Bn/yr.
But the situation may be different when it comes to the fund management industry, as British asset owners, notably UK pension funds, often constitute an incommensurate share of total turnover for German, French, Dutch and other Continental European asset managers.
This imbalance could potentially give Britain some negotiating leverage e.g. power of retorsion in case the EU attempts to impose an abrupt cancellation of the mutually-binding obligations and advantages pertaining to the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004 ("fund passporting"). Research conducted by the World Pensions Council (WPC) shows that "Assets owned by UK pension funds are more than 11 times bigger than those of all German and French pension funds put together […] If need be, at the first hint of threat to the City of London, Her Majesty’s Government should be in a position to respond very forcefully."'
@Martin54 the problem isn't so much the cost as the cost/benefit analysis. Why should EU clients bother with more paperwork to import from the UK if they can get an equivalent product without it? See this example, notably the video interview.
What we're seeing here is not so much falling of a cliff-edge as the beginning of a teutonic shift in direction, buried under layers of fudge. There might not be much visible movement, but that doesn't mean nothing's happening.
Bloomberg Economics calculated that the cost to the UK economy (in $US so you'll need to do some conversion) of leaving the EU was about £130b on Brexit Day at the end of January, forecast to reach £200b by the end of December - that's £70b during the 11 month transition. Even with some leeway for actual costs varying from forecast ... that's more than £50b.
Have you seen how much extra costs there are in exporting to NI?
Next week, I'll be at work discussing the stuff we now have to do at our cost due to brexit. Company health and vehicle insurance for EU travel, extra import paperwork and export paperwork to Ireland and NI. This stuff is here forever, when do I see the wins? link
or the extra packaging costs because we now have a UK CE mark, not the EU CE mark, so companies need three different packages for NI, UK and EU - and the additional costs those companies exporting to the EU now pay to achieve EU CE accreditation.
Why would they need three different packages? Couldn’t they just put all three marks on the same package?
@Dave W Because all three require different forms and actions - see here, and there are different requirements for different things, it will require an EORI number and there are three different ones for import to UK, export to EU and export to NI
The organic label, which is valid throughout Europe, and the EU emblem will both no longer be permitted for use on British organic and other affected products.
@Dave W Because all three require different forms and actions - see here, and there are different requirements for different things, it will require an EORI number and there are three different ones for import to UK, export to EU and export to NI
It sounds like you'll need different numbers for customs forms, but I didn't see anything saying that the numbers had to be on the product package itself.
The organic label, which is valid throughout Europe, and the EU emblem will both no longer be permitted for use on British organic and other affected products.
Here's a real-life example of business disruption I've found:
Peter Christian, an occasional provider of clothes stuff to me, have this message on their website:
BREXIT - Temporary Suspension of Service to EU
We regret that we have temporarily suspended our service to Europe and can no longer accept orders to the EU. Uncertainties over the legal requirements to meet EU import compliances and the threatened delays in the transport services have forced us into making this decision. We will resume normal service as soon as possible.
Why would they need three different packages? Couldn’t they just put all three marks on the same package?
When it comes to the actual product, space itself might be an issue
Last I heard (for many products) the UKCA mark had a years grace before any marking was required, then another years grace before it needs to be permanent.
Thanks @Alan Cresswell & aye @Eutychus, despite the source comic. Lucky old Boris, eh, he can blame Covid for the next three and a half years 'belt tightening'. Then he'll lower tax on foreign investment. Launder your money in BRITAIN!!!
One of the other packaging requirements is the address of the company where it is trading depending on which regulations and country, which will affect the packaging, so every trading address if a company has different offices in other countries. The organic mark is just one of many regulations / certifications that vary across the different jurisdictions now.
There are engineers in the UK who are not going to bother to export at all because the additional 10% tariff and extra paperwork makes it too expensive, others that are only going to set up for EU export and not bother setting up for the internal UK market.
Pet passports have gone phut, so you now need a 22 page form that you will need to pay to get completed each time. And if you commercially export animals (sell a horse to someone) you have to do somekind of separate 12 page form to go with it (I was speaking with a vet this afternoon vet, who is very unimpressed )
Comments
With the economy on its knees, I'm thinking a mess of pottage within 12 months.
I saw this in the French media. Johnson Snr is applying on the basis that his mother was French, but I'm not sure this is sufficient to get him French nationality (having become French myself, I have acquainted myself with the subject in some detail). AIUI a person with one French parent who was not born on French soil needs to live in France for three years before they become eligible for citizenship.
Oh dear, you mean he isn't entitled to this when he and his revolting brood have built their entire lives on being entitled to everything on a stick.
It would, however, be amusing if Mr Johnson (Senior) was refused a French passport. One can almost hear the officials saying to each other *United Kingdom? Where and what is this? We know of no such country...*
Mind-bogglingly the Johnson thread has become a discussion on best vaccine strategies and this thread has become the nature of 'Boris.'
This is potentially another whole thread again but it is striking how much Fred Trump shaped and formed Donald into the 'man's he is. Similarly if one can see the seeds of Borisness in those early years it really does emphasise again how much we are shaped in those early experiences
And yet, we come, once again to The Sins of fathers...
AFZ
He managed to conflate three quite separate eras in British History. These ‘people are erasing history’ folk really don’t know shit.
AIUI, the locals were informed on New Year's Eve that construction would begin on 3rd January, to be completed by July. They are not Happy Bunnies, but I do wonder how many of them might have voted Leave?
How sad. Perhaps this one works?
It seems like a remarkably pragmatic result which does least harm all round. And that stupid Bojo eh? Saw the way the wind was blowing politically thanks to the real idiot, my kinsman Cameron, sailed them to perfection for an unprincipled - apart from Machiavellian - buccaneering Tory bastard.
More from this guy. The Spanish will be able to sail through unimpeded, because Gibraltar will now be part of Schengen (!!), while Brits arriving will have to queue up with all other third countries... at ports and an airport controlled by EU border agency Frontex.
If Gibraltar can get bespoke arrangements, I wonder what the Channel Islands might achieve if they so wished.
Scottish shipmates may also wish to seize on this precedent.
That would be trade in goods.
Can you summarise the new arrangements for financial services delivered by firms in the UK to clients in the EU, please?
Because until the day before yesterday, it was crystal clear, and now, as I understand it, there is no arrangement whatsoever.
Oh no! The horror, the humanity of it all!! It will be a catastrophe, a disaster, we'll be eating each other in a fortnight. There again, no arrangement whatsoever is better than none.
So what's happening to existing contracts today? What will happen Monday?
For fishing, the deal looks like an agreement for the UK to buy back the shares of the quotas that were sold previously. Given that it was possible for the UK to sell those shares of the quotas in the first place, if we'd stayed in the EU then it should have been possible for the government to have got them back anyway to allow the fishing industry to expand - which would make this an almost zero gain for leaving the EU. There would still need to be a mechanism to manage fish stocks which would look very similar to the mechanisms of the CFP.
And, of course, there's an arbitration mechanism that was set up to avoid the direct involvement of the ECJ (though, the ECJ could be asked to comment on European law). As I understand it, the main task of this body would kick in in the event of divergence in regulations between the UK and EU, including government subsidies of business sectors, and in the event of such divergence deciding what tariffs would be appropriate to protect the EU Single Market. In other words, the UK has the theoretical ability to vary regulations but effectively has to maintain regulatory equivalence - without any input into setting those regulations, of course.
I have never been among those predicting doomsday even in the event of No Deal, let alone in the event of a deal. However, the closer one looks at this deal, the more it appears it has delivered a bare minimum allowing Boris to claim he has kept his promise of achieving a deal, and the less substance there appears to be. I find it unbelievable that more noise is not being made about the gaping lack of any agreement on trade in services, for example.
As has been widely commented, the deal is unprecedented in that it is an agreement on creating barriers to trade. That cannot fail to have economic consequences. It has also opened a Pandora's box of other, largely unforeseen consequences. Some of those might just possibly be good, many I think will be negative, but it will take some time before they emerge. No doubt people will muddle through, but I suspect that the poor will suffer the most.
or the extra packaging costs because we now have a UK CE mark, not the EU CE mark, so companies need three different packages for NI, UK and EU - and the additional costs those companies exporting to the EU now pay to achieve EU CE accreditation.
Or the musicians who can no longer afford to travel to Europe to tour, which will finish off much of what is left of our music industry after covid19 - which created £5.2 billion revenue in the economy in 2018, and £2.7 billion in exports, not including the music tourism to the UK link compared with the £987 million in fish landed in 2019 link*
* I note from that article that mackerel quotas were reduced between 2018 and 2019
I really should know this, but has that now happened?
I know it (UKCA, UKNI ?, CE) was what they were planning in the absence of anything, and that there is an absence of anything related to it..., but that isn't the same thing (this gov page on UKCA is updated 31st, so I guess that's as official as it can be...)
Now that the deal is done, the devil is in all these different technical details. They are unlikely to achieve the same media traction as the single issue of Deal or No Deal and will doubtless be dismissed as "a small price to pay for recovering our sovereignty" or some such.
But the situation may be different when it comes to the fund management industry, as British asset owners, notably UK pension funds, often constitute an incommensurate share of total turnover for German, French, Dutch and other Continental European asset managers.
This imbalance could potentially give Britain some negotiating leverage e.g. power of retorsion in case the EU attempts to impose an abrupt cancellation of the mutually-binding obligations and advantages pertaining to the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004 ("fund passporting"). Research conducted by the World Pensions Council (WPC) shows that "Assets owned by UK pension funds are more than 11 times bigger than those of all German and French pension funds put together […] If need be, at the first hint of threat to the City of London, Her Majesty’s Government should be in a position to respond very forcefully."'
wah friend wiki like
What we're seeing here is not so much falling of a cliff-edge as the beginning of a teutonic shift in direction, buried under layers of fudge. There might not be much visible movement, but that doesn't mean nothing's happening.
I actually read it as tectonic, which I guess is what was meant, but, even so...
What @Eutychus said, anyway.
Just think of the extra confusion/paperwork/expense involved in correcting the mistake/taking back control!
I'll saddle me Unicorn...
see here
Then there's the new VAT regulations, rolled out on 31 December 2020 by HMRC - see more from the ICAEW (accountancy body) here
@Martin54 - what financial sector? Fortune covered the trillions in money and 7500 jobs already gone in October
Peter Christian, an occasional provider of clothes stuff to me, have this message on their website:
This is just mindboggling, and should NOT happen!
Last I heard (for many products) the UKCA mark had a years grace before any marking was required, then another years grace before it needs to be permanent.
Although if I understand correctly I think you only need 2 markings (CE covers NI). Or maybe not...
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/using-the-ukni-marking
There are engineers in the UK who are not going to bother to export at all because the additional 10% tariff and extra paperwork makes it too expensive, others that are only going to set up for EU export and not bother setting up for the internal UK market.