Will this give Trump a jump in the polls and solidify the base and increase donations?
Probably. For his fellow Republicans the fact that Trump is a sex criminal is a feature, not a bug. My guess is that this helps Trump with Republicans and harms him with non-Republicans.
Will this give Trump a jump in the polls and solidify the base and increase donations?
Probably. For his fellow Republicans the fact that Trump is a sex criminal is a feature, not a bug. My guess is that this helps Trump with Republicans and harms him with non-Republicans.
Donald Trump has been found guilty in civil court of sexually assaulting and defaming E. Jean Carroll.
More than pedantic point: Trump has been found liable for sexual abuse and defamation. He was not found “guilty” of anything by the jury. “Guilty” is a verdict in criminal proceedings, not in civil ones, and this was, as you say, a civil action.
Is there no end to - or suitable punishment for - this ghastly man's misdemeanours?
(I still think he isn't actually human, but some alien life form's attempt at making a human being, in order to achieve World Domination They didn't quite get it right...)
Is there no end to - or suitable punishment for - this ghastly man's misdemeanours?
(I still think he isn't actually human, but some alien life form's attempt at making a human being, in order to achieve World Domination They didn't quite get it right...)
Are you sure about that? Given the sheer number of mass killings currently being racked up on these shore (more than 1 per day, according to recent news here), I'm tempted to say his current stats renders him more human.
Trump has a New Hampshire Town Hall coming up on Wednesday. To be shown on CNN. Wonder what they will be talking about.
Is that some sort of pro-Trump rally? As you say, not too hard to guess the subject...
CNN is sponsoring it. Therefore, not technically pro-Trump, New Hampshire is not Trump territory for that matter, though I expect more than a few of his lemmings will be there.
CNN is sponsoring it. Therefore, not technically pro-Trump, . . .
Michael Fanone, a former member of the Washington Metropolitan Police who was nearly killed on January 6 (and occasional CNN contributor), has a piece in Rolling Stone about this. The title gives you the general flavor.
CNN Is Hosting a Town Hall for a Guy Who Tried to Get Me Killed
Donald Trump tried to end American democracy. Why is CNN throwing him a rehabilitation party?
The amount of uncritical coverage granted to Trump by supposedly neutral media has always been one of the biggest problems with Trump's various candidacies.
With Trump having over triple DeSantis' support, after getting away with rape, is that just 'base'?
Probably. Most polls comparing Trump's support to DeSantis' are covering "likely Republican voters". Needless to say* those likely to vote in a Republican primary election are almost all Republican loyalists and disproportionately include Trump's most virulent supporters.
With Trump having over triple DeSantis' support, after getting away with rape, is that just 'base'?
Probably. Most polls comparing Trump's support to DeSantis' are covering "likely Republican voters". Needless to say* those likely to vote in a Republican primary election are almost all Republican loyalists and disproportionately include Trump's most virulent supporters.
It’s important to understand that, in general, Republicans do not share the insistence on proportional delegate rewards in primaries that Democrats have embraced in recent years. Republicans still have winner-take-all and winner-take-most (typically winner-take-all by congressional district) nomination contests, though pre–March 15 “early states” are required to award delegates proportionately. This means candidates who finish first in Republican primaries and caucuses often get overcompensated in delegates. But what a lot of people forget is that this front-runner’s thumb on the scales got significantly heavier in 2020, when Trump dominated the party entirely and wanted to avoid any embarrassing losses of delegates to gadfly candidates like William Weld. These 2020 allocation rules may carry over to 2024 in many states, as primary-process wizard Josh Putnam recently explained:
The Trump team was unusually active in nudging state parties toward changes for 2020 that 1) made it easier for Trump to gobble up delegates as the nomination process moved through the calendar of contests and 2) made it much more difficult for multiple candidates to win delegates. Bear in mind that there were minimal changes to the 2020 rules at the national level and that trend has largely held as 2020 transitions into 2024.
And that didn’t just apply to winner-take-all or winner-take-mosts states. Even states with proportional delegate-reward rules moved in 2020 toward higher minimum thresholds for winning any delegates at all:
Of the 26 states in 2020 that could have a qualifying threshold – those with some form of proportional rules – 18 of them set it to the maximum 20 percent. Just ten states of the 31 that could have a qualifying threshold had the maximum in 2016. The 20 percent maximum was by far the modal qualifying threshold for states in the 2020 cycle.
All these shifts in rules already tilted toward front-runners could make it harder for dark horses to emerge slowly through incremental increases in relatively poor performances.
One might even go so far as to say the Republican presidential primary is being "rigged".
In terms of the general election, basic demographics are against Trump (or Trump-like Republicans). In the 2020 presidential election the only age demographics who preferred Trump over Biden were voters over fifty. Using the U.S. census data from 2020 and the Social Security actuarial tables, about 10.8 million* U.S. residents who were over 50 years old on election day 2020 will have died by election day 2024. Likewise about 17 million U.S. residents who were between the ages of 14 and 17 on election day 2020 will be 18 or over on election day 2024. Given which age demographics are most and least likely to vote Republican, this is not helpful for Trump.
Now a couple caveats about the above analysis. A lot can happen in the 17½ months between now and election day 2024 which may move voters more than demographic shifts will. The Census Bureau focuses on counting U.S. residents and does not have a very good data on citizenship by age cohort. Younger U.S. residents are much more likely to be non-citizens than older ones. Being a citizen is also no guarantee of actually casting a ballot, something the younger cohort is notoriously negligent about. Still, this kind of population attrition is not moving things in the GOP's favor, which would explain their increased efforts at making it harder for new voters to register and vote.
*This may actually be an under-estimate since the Social Security actuarial tables have not been updated since 2019 and COVID mortality skews older.
It’s important to understand that, in general, Republicans do not share the insistence on proportional delegate rewards in primaries that Democrats have embraced in recent years. Republicans still have winner-take-all and winner-take-most (typically winner-take-all by congressional district) nomination contests, though pre–March 15 “early states” are required to award delegates proportionately. This means candidates who finish first in Republican primaries and caucuses often get overcompensated in delegates. But what a lot of people forget is that this front-runner’s thumb on the scales got significantly heavier in 2020, when Trump dominated the party entirely and wanted to avoid any embarrassing losses of delegates to gadfly candidates like William Weld. These 2020 allocation rules may carry over to 2024 in many states, as primary-process wizard Josh Putnam recently explained:
The Trump team was unusually active in nudging state parties toward changes for 2020 that 1) made it easier for Trump to gobble up delegates as the nomination process moved through the calendar of contests and 2) made it much more difficult for multiple candidates to win delegates. Bear in mind that there were minimal changes to the 2020 rules at the national level and that trend has largely held as 2020 transitions into 2024.
And that didn’t just apply to winner-take-all or winner-take-mosts states. Even states with proportional delegate-reward rules moved in 2020 toward higher minimum thresholds for winning any delegates at all:
Of the 26 states in 2020 that could have a qualifying threshold – those with some form of proportional rules – 18 of them set it to the maximum 20 percent. Just ten states of the 31 that could have a qualifying threshold had the maximum in 2016. The 20 percent maximum was by far the modal qualifying threshold for states in the 2020 cycle.
All these shifts in rules already tilted toward front-runners could make it harder for dark horses to emerge slowly through incremental increases in relatively poor performances.
One might even go so far as to say the Republican presidential primary is being "rigged".
In terms of the general election, basic demographics are against Trump (or Trump-like Republicans). In the 2020 presidential election the only age demographics who preferred Trump over Biden were voters over fifty. Using the U.S. census data from 2020 and the Social Security actuarial tables, about 10.8 million* U.S. residents who were over 50 years old on election day 2020 will have died by election day 2024. Likewise about 17 million U.S. residents who were between the ages of 14 and 17 on election day 2020 will be 18 or over on election day 2024. Given which age demographics are most and least likely to vote Republican, this is not helpful for Trump.
Now a couple caveats about the above analysis. A lot can happen in the 17½ months between now and election day 2024 which may move voters more than demographic shifts will. The Census Bureau focuses on counting U.S. residents and does not have a very good data on citizenship by age cohort. Younger U.S. residents are much more likely to be non-citizens than older ones. Being a citizen is also no guarantee of actually casting a ballot, something the younger cohort is notoriously negligent about. Still, this kind of population attrition is not moving things in the GOP's favor, which would explain their increased efforts at making it harder for new voters to register and vote.
*This may actually be an under-estimate since the Social Security actuarial tables have not been updated since 2019 and COVID mortality skews older.
And if I remember right, COVID mortality skews red.
Now, the DoJ is reportedly in possession of an audiotape in which Trump allegedly boasts of a document in his possession that details an invasion of Iran. Reports say that it was actually a four-page memo that lists the options of how to invade Iran. And the tape was recorded two years before the Mar A Logo FBI raid. Bur this could be enough evidence to take to the grand jury for an indictment. Story here
Federal prosecutors have obtained an audio recording of a summer 2021 meeting in which former President Donald Trump acknowledges he held onto a classified Pentagon document about a potential attack on Iran, multiple sources told CNN, undercutting his argument that he declassified everything.
The recording indicates Trump understood he retained classified material after leaving the White House, according to multiple sources familiar with the investigation. On the recording, Trump’s comments suggest he would like to share the information but he’s aware of limitations on his ability post-presidency to declassify records, two of the sources said.
If true, this would go a long way towards establishing intent. And demolishing his already ridiculous "secret mental declassification" dodge. Of course the necessary caveats appear in the next paragraph.
CNN has not listened to the recording, but multiple sources described it. One source said the relevant portion on the Iran document is about two minutes long, and another source said the discussion is a small part of a much longer meeting.
So this report is dependent on the veracity of multiple anonymous sources.
So what's the worst that can happen for him, when? How soon?
I believe the average penalty for possession of classified material is about 10 years per violation, so it will depend on how many counts Trump will be charged with.
In the case of seditious activity, the maximum penalty is 20 years.
Election fraud depends on the state laws.
I am wondering, though, what the hive makes of the two separate federal grand juries in Washington DC and Florida.
Maybe. All the sources I have seen suggest that this information came from....Trump. And I habitually do not believe him. It may be true, but I'd rather that somebody other than Trump or his lawyers say it.
Partly because, even with this Supreme Court, a self-pardon probably wouldn't stand.
But mostly because you have to be President to issue a pardon.
Of course he's base is going nuts* about the indictment. However the electoral reality is he can't win with his base alone and the number of other Americans who will vote for him is shrinking.**
AFZ
*even more than the baseline, I mean.
**This is not to say I'm not worried. I could be wrong. I think it unlikely here but I am very worried because the consequences of being wrong here are huge.
Who would be mad enough to want to be Trump's Vice-President? And who would be Biden's, come to that, given that they may well be needed to take over at short notice?
Biden’s? Anybody who wants the job and is fine with his position. Trump’s? Anybody who wants to be betrayed and go down in history as a kiss-ass and credulous person.
Who would be mad enough to want to be Trump's Vice-President? And who would be Biden's, come to that, given that they may well be needed to take over at short notice?
I think the answers to those questions are "Mike Pence" and "Kamala Harris".
Obviously Pence won't be Trump's pick for running mate this time around, but someone with Pence's blandness and a better vetted personal allegiance to Trump over the Constitution is the most likely pick.
Who would be mad enough to want to be Trump's Vice-President? And who would be Biden's, come to that, given that they may well be needed to take over at short notice?
I think the answers to those questions are "Mike Pence" and "Kamala Harris".
Obviously Pence won't be Trump's pick for running mate this time around, but someone with Pence's blandness and a better vetted personal allegiance to Trump over the Constitution is the most likely pick.
I'd assume Trump would want somebody who would do as s/he was told when required to overturn a defeat. Somebody who would also be a hedge against impeachment or assassination. Somebody like Marjorie Taylor Greene…
Who would be mad enough to want to be Trump's Vice-President? And who would be Biden's, come to that, given that they may well be needed to take over at short notice?
I think the answers to those questions are "Mike Pence" and "Kamala Harris".
Obviously Pence won't be Trump's pick for running mate this time around, but someone with Pence's blandness and a better vetted personal allegiance to Trump over the Constitution is the most likely pick.
Honestly? I think DeSantis will be the VP candidate. Republicans are, if nothing else, great at going full-on "we've always been at war with Eastasia" and DeSantis would have a fair bet on Trump being in prison, dead, defeated, or impeached and convicted before 4 years are up, leaving him to own the MAGA vote, whether to win the 2028 election or merely for grift and grandstanding, for the foreseeable future.
Honestly? I think DeSantis will be the VP candidate. Republicans are, if nothing else, great at going full-on "we've always been at war with Eastasia" and DeSantis would have a fair bet on Trump being in prison, dead, defeated, or impeached and convicted before 4 years are up, leaving him to own the MAGA vote, whether to win the 2028 election or merely for grift and grandstanding, for the foreseeable future.
I'm skeptical. Trump probably wouldn't like anyone with their own ambitions and power base and I'm not sure DeSantis would be willing to give up being king of Florida on a gamble that Trump drops dead in the appropriate timeframe.
Honestly? I think DeSantis will be the VP candidate. Republicans are, if nothing else, great at going full-on "we've always been at war with Eastasia" and DeSantis would have a fair bet on Trump being in prison, dead, defeated, or impeached and convicted before 4 years are up, leaving him to own the MAGA vote, whether to win the 2028 election or merely for grift and grandstanding, for the foreseeable future.
I'm skeptical. Trump probably wouldn't like anyone with their own ambitions and power base and I'm not sure DeSantis would be willing to give up being king of Florida on a gamble that Trump drops dead in the appropriate timeframe.
Thing is, even if Trump wins and makes it to 2028 he's term limited and his anointed heir will get the GOP nomination in 2028.
Thing is, even if Trump wins and makes it to 2028 he's term limited and his anointed heir will get the GOP nomination in 2028.
Assuming the U.S. is still following the Constitution at that point, something that can't be taken for granted where Trump is concerned. He's already "joked" about how his first term didn't count because Congress was so obstructive that he deserves a do-over. As with his "jokes" about only accepting election results if he wins this seems like kidding on the square.
De Santos is a child. If you don’t do what he wants he will stamp his foot and sulk. I am British but have friends in Florida and am part of UK Disney Parks podcast team. I have a good idea what he is like. If he becomes your President I will feel sorry for you. At least it will give Randy Rainbow some good ideas.
Honestly? I think DeSantis will be the VP candidate. Republicans are, if nothing else, great at going full-on "we've always been at war with Eastasia" and DeSantis would have a fair bet on Trump being in prison, dead, defeated, or impeached and convicted before 4 years are up, leaving him to own the MAGA vote, whether to win the 2028 election or merely for grift and grandstanding, for the foreseeable future.
I'm skeptical. Trump probably wouldn't like anyone with their own ambitions and power base and I'm not sure DeSantis would be willing to give up being king of Florida on a gamble that Trump drops dead in the appropriate timeframe.
Thing is, even if Trump wins and makes it to 2028 he's term limited and his anointed heir will get the GOP nomination in 2028.
Dan Quayle thought he would be the anointed heir of the Republican party after Bush Sr. Didn't go too far.
De Santos is a child. If you don’t do what he wants he will stamp his foot and sulk. I am British but have friends in Florida and am part of UK Disney Parks podcast team. I have a good idea what he is like. If he becomes your President I will feel sorry for you. At least it will give Randy Rainbow some good ideas.
Honestly? I think DeSantis will be the VP candidate. Republicans are, if nothing else, great at going full-on "we've always been at war with Eastasia" and DeSantis would have a fair bet on Trump being in prison, dead, defeated, or impeached and convicted before 4 years are up, leaving him to own the MAGA vote, whether to win the 2028 election or merely for grift and grandstanding, for the foreseeable future.
I'm skeptical. Trump probably wouldn't like anyone with their own ambitions and power base and I'm not sure DeSantis would be willing to give up being king of Florida on a gamble that Trump drops dead in the appropriate timeframe.
Thing is, even if Trump wins and makes it to 2028 he's term limited and his anointed heir will get the GOP nomination in 2028.
Dan Quayle thought he would be the anointed heir of the Republican party after Bush Sr. Didn't go too far.
There's many a slip twixt dress and drawers [/Nanny Ogg]
DeSantis might end up in the same boat, but he wouldn't be incorrect to make the calculation when considering the VP spot.
I imagine Nauta will be thrown under the bus by Trump. "I didn't know what files were being delivered or brought into the house. I left all those decisions up to Mr. Nauta...."
The summons sent to former President Donald Trump and his legal team late Thursday indicates that U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon will be assigned to oversee his case, at least initially, according to sources briefed on the matter.
Cannon's apparent assignment would add yet another unprecedented wrinkle to a case involving the first federal charges against a former president: Trump appointed Cannon to the federal bench in 2020, meaning that, if Trump is ultimately convicted, she would be responsible for determining the sentence – which may include prison time – for the man who elevated her to the role.
<snip>
Cannon is no stranger to the case. The 42-year-old judge appointed a "special master" last year to review those materials seized from Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate. Legal experts accused Cannon of handing Trump a series of head-scratching victories over the course of those proceedings.
Other critics, myself included, accused Cannon of making prejudicial rulings based in neither law nor common sense.
Partly because, even with this Supreme Court, a self-pardon probably wouldn't stand.
But mostly because you have to be President to issue a pardon.
Of course he's base is going nuts* about the indictment. However the electoral reality is he can't win with his base alone and the number of other Americans who will vote for him is shrinking.**
AFZ
*even more than the baseline, I mean.
**This is not to say I'm not worried. I could be wrong. I think it unlikely here but I am very worried because the consequences of being wrong here are huge.
It's not just his mindless base, it's the rich, it's the old, it's all manner of hard wired conservatives, it's evangelicals, it's macho men, it's tax payers, it's pensioners, the self-employed, it's everybody, it's Southerners, it's cowboys. People will vote for anyone leading the GOP regardless, a stale ham sandwich, i.e. regardless of whether they 'like' Trump. Because he talks less tax. Critical race theory is tax. LGBTQQIAAP is tax. I.e. federal. The tiny minority privileged liberal intelligentsia is undemocratically making 'hard working' Americans' children subject to education that makes the parents uncomfortable and pay for the privilege. Etc, etc. Etc.
The first huge consequence is the defeat of Ukraine. The last is Trump's refusal to concede in 2028 and the reigniting of the Civil War. Nuclear civil war. Anything else?
Comments
Probably. For his fellow Republicans the fact that Trump is a sex criminal is a feature, not a bug. My guess is that this helps Trump with Republicans and harms him with non-Republicans.
He has five million fewer dollars.
No, no, he has 5 million more dollars. They're just all red.
Who knew?
Is there no end to - or suitable punishment for - this ghastly man's misdemeanours?
(I still think he isn't actually human, but some alien life form's attempt at making a human being, in order to achieve World Domination They didn't quite get it right...)
Are you sure about that? Given the sheer number of mass killings currently being racked up on these shore (more than 1 per day, according to recent news here), I'm tempted to say his current stats renders him more human.
Is that some sort of pro-Trump rally? As you say, not too hard to guess the subject...
CNN is sponsoring it. Therefore, not technically pro-Trump, New Hampshire is not Trump territory for that matter, though I expect more than a few of his lemmings will be there.
Michael Fanone, a former member of the Washington Metropolitan Police who was nearly killed on January 6 (and occasional CNN contributor), has a piece in Rolling Stone about this. The title gives you the general flavor.
The amount of uncritical coverage granted to Trump by supposedly neutral media has always been one of the biggest problems with Trump's various candidacies.
Probably. Most polls comparing Trump's support to DeSantis' are covering "likely Republican voters". Needless to say* those likely to vote in a Republican primary election are almost all Republican loyalists and disproportionately include Trump's most virulent supporters.
*Apparently not, since here we are.
Thank you.
One might even go so far as to say the Republican presidential primary is being "rigged".
In terms of the general election, basic demographics are against Trump (or Trump-like Republicans). In the 2020 presidential election the only age demographics who preferred Trump over Biden were voters over fifty. Using the U.S. census data from 2020 and the Social Security actuarial tables, about 10.8 million* U.S. residents who were over 50 years old on election day 2020 will have died by election day 2024. Likewise about 17 million U.S. residents who were between the ages of 14 and 17 on election day 2020 will be 18 or over on election day 2024. Given which age demographics are most and least likely to vote Republican, this is not helpful for Trump.
Now a couple caveats about the above analysis. A lot can happen in the 17½ months between now and election day 2024 which may move voters more than demographic shifts will. The Census Bureau focuses on counting U.S. residents and does not have a very good data on citizenship by age cohort. Younger U.S. residents are much more likely to be non-citizens than older ones. Being a citizen is also no guarantee of actually casting a ballot, something the younger cohort is notoriously negligent about. Still, this kind of population attrition is not moving things in the GOP's favor, which would explain their increased efforts at making it harder for new voters to register and vote.
*This may actually be an under-estimate since the Social Security actuarial tables have not been updated since 2019 and COVID mortality skews older.
And if I remember right, COVID mortality skews red.
If true, this would go a long way towards establishing intent. And demolishing his already ridiculous "secret mental declassification" dodge. Of course the necessary caveats appear in the next paragraph.
So this report is dependent on the veracity of multiple anonymous sources.
I believe the average penalty for possession of classified material is about 10 years per violation, so it will depend on how many counts Trump will be charged with.
In the case of seditious activity, the maximum penalty is 20 years.
Election fraud depends on the state laws.
I am wondering, though, what the hive makes of the two separate federal grand juries in Washington DC and Florida.
No he won't.
Partly because, even with this Supreme Court, a self-pardon probably wouldn't stand.
But mostly because you have to be President to issue a pardon.
Of course he's base is going nuts* about the indictment. However the electoral reality is he can't win with his base alone and the number of other Americans who will vote for him is shrinking.**
AFZ
*even more than the baseline, I mean.
**This is not to say I'm not worried. I could be wrong. I think it unlikely here but I am very worried because the consequences of being wrong here are huge.
I think the answers to those questions are "Mike Pence" and "Kamala Harris".
Obviously Pence won't be Trump's pick for running mate this time around, but someone with Pence's blandness and a better vetted personal allegiance to Trump over the Constitution is the most likely pick.
I'd assume Trump would want somebody who would do as s/he was told when required to overturn a defeat. Somebody who would also be a hedge against impeachment or assassination. Somebody like Marjorie Taylor Greene…
Honestly? I think DeSantis will be the VP candidate. Republicans are, if nothing else, great at going full-on "we've always been at war with Eastasia" and DeSantis would have a fair bet on Trump being in prison, dead, defeated, or impeached and convicted before 4 years are up, leaving him to own the MAGA vote, whether to win the 2028 election or merely for grift and grandstanding, for the foreseeable future.
I'm skeptical. Trump probably wouldn't like anyone with their own ambitions and power base and I'm not sure DeSantis would be willing to give up being king of Florida on a gamble that Trump drops dead in the appropriate timeframe.
Thing is, even if Trump wins and makes it to 2028 he's term limited and his anointed heir will get the GOP nomination in 2028.
Assuming the U.S. is still following the Constitution at that point, something that can't be taken for granted where Trump is concerned. He's already "joked" about how his first term didn't count because Congress was so obstructive that he deserves a do-over. As with his "jokes" about only accepting election results if he wins this seems like kidding on the square.
Dan Quayle thought he would be the anointed heir of the Republican party after Bush Sr. Didn't go too far.
Sorry De Santis
There's many a slip twixt dress and drawers [/Nanny Ogg]
DeSantis might end up in the same boat, but he wouldn't be incorrect to make the calculation when considering the VP spot.
Seems like they have their ducks in a row.
https://twitter.com/TheBeatWithAri/status/1667249388274569225?t=PPNX0VLAQD-zPdrq0FxMRw&s=19
Other critics, myself included, accused Cannon of making prejudicial rulings based in neither law nor common sense.
It's not just his mindless base, it's the rich, it's the old, it's all manner of hard wired conservatives, it's evangelicals, it's macho men, it's tax payers, it's pensioners, the self-employed, it's everybody, it's Southerners, it's cowboys. People will vote for anyone leading the GOP regardless, a stale ham sandwich, i.e. regardless of whether they 'like' Trump. Because he talks less tax. Critical race theory is tax. LGBTQQIAAP is tax. I.e. federal. The tiny minority privileged liberal intelligentsia is undemocratically making 'hard working' Americans' children subject to education that makes the parents uncomfortable and pay for the privilege. Etc, etc. Etc.
The first huge consequence is the defeat of Ukraine. The last is Trump's refusal to concede in 2028 and the reigniting of the Civil War. Nuclear civil war. Anything else?