2024 U.S. Senate Elections
Part 1 of 2
Apologies for the length, but there are a lot more interesting Senate races this year than the last time I did this.
In addition to the presidential election, some Americans will be voting for Senators on November 5, 2024, exactly 300 days from today. Control of the Senate will determine how much of their agenda the president elected in 2024 will be able to implement, especially judicial appointments. Thirty-four Senate seats (out of one hundred) are up for election in 2024, eleven of which are currently held by Republicans, twenty by Democrats, and three by independents who caucus with the Democrats. Here's a list of what I consider the races to keep an eye on. Each state is listed with its Partisan Voting Index (PVI), as assessed by The Cook Political Report. PVI compares a jurisdiction's partisan vote in the last two presidential elections to the national partisan vote, measuring how much more Democratic or Republican the jurisdiction is than the country as a whole. I’ve included some primary election dates in my analysis. Please note that many states hold primaries for president on a different day than for other offices. If you want to know the date of your presidential primary, please consult your local election official, not some internet rando.
Seats held by retiring incumbents
When an established Senator retires it introduces a lot of uncertainty into the system. Even in states with a strong partisan lean (e.g. Utah) the question of who emerges from the primary can have important ramifications.
Apologies for the length, but there are a lot more interesting Senate races this year than the last time I did this.
In addition to the presidential election, some Americans will be voting for Senators on November 5, 2024, exactly 300 days from today. Control of the Senate will determine how much of their agenda the president elected in 2024 will be able to implement, especially judicial appointments. Thirty-four Senate seats (out of one hundred) are up for election in 2024, eleven of which are currently held by Republicans, twenty by Democrats, and three by independents who caucus with the Democrats. Here's a list of what I consider the races to keep an eye on. Each state is listed with its Partisan Voting Index (PVI), as assessed by The Cook Political Report. PVI compares a jurisdiction's partisan vote in the last two presidential elections to the national partisan vote, measuring how much more Democratic or Republican the jurisdiction is than the country as a whole. I’ve included some primary election dates in my analysis. Please note that many states hold primaries for president on a different day than for other offices. If you want to know the date of your presidential primary, please consult your local election official, not some internet rando.
Seats held by retiring incumbents
When an established Senator retires it introduces a lot of uncertainty into the system. Even in states with a strong partisan lean (e.g. Utah) the question of who emerges from the primary can have important ramifications.
- California (D+13): Senator Laphonza Butler, appointed to fill Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat until the next election, will not be running for a term of her own. Current U.S. Representatives Katie Porter, Adam Schiff, and Barbara Lee are the Democrats who have declared themselves to be running for this seat. On the Republican side attorney Eric Early, teacher Denice Gary-Pandol, and baseball player Steve Garvey are running as Republicans. There are others running as well. California uses a top two primary system, where all candidates of any party (or none) are placed on the same ballot. Then the top two vote-getters from that round will face each other in the general election. California holds its all candidate primary on March 5, Super Tuesday.
- - Delaware (D+7): Four term Democratic Senator Tom Carper has declined to run for a fifth term. On the Democratic side Delaware’s sole U.S. Representative, Lisa Blunt Rochester, has decided to try crossing the Rotunda. On the Republican side the only declared candidate (so far) is business manager Eric Hansen, who has never held elected office. Delaware will hold its Senate primary on September 3.
- - Indiana (R+11): Republican Senator Mike Braun is retiring from the Senate in order to run for governor of his state. On the Republican side U.S. Rep. Jim Banks has declared his candidacy and several others have expressed interest. On the Democratic side the current favorite among the three declared candidates (so far) is former state Rep. Marc Carmichael. Indiana will hold its primary on May 7.
- - Maryland (D+14): Democratic Senator Ben Cardin will not be seeking a fourth term. There are numerous candidates currently in the Democratic primary for this seat, the most notable of which are U.S. Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. There are five declared Republican candidates so far, but the only one that has gotten interest from party leadership is retired Air Force General John Teichert. Maryland will hold its primary on May 14.
- - Michigan (R+1): Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow has announced she will not be seeking a fifth term. Of the five declared Democratic primary candidates the current favorite is current U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin. There are eleven declared Republican. The most notable of these are former Michigan Congressmen Peter Meijer and Mike Rogers, plus former Detroit police chief and disqualified gubernatorial candidate James Craig. Michigan will hold its Senate primary on August 6.
- - Utah (R+13): Republican Mitt Romney will be hanging it up after only one term in the Senate. Numerous Republicans have already declared their candidacy for this seat, including Speaker of the Utah House Brad Wilson, current U.S. Rep. John Curtis, and Brent Hatch, son of Orrin Hatch. No Democrat has so far declared their candidacy. In the 2022 Senate race they endorsed independent candidate Evan McMullin. We’ll see if they do that again. Utah will hold its Senate primary on June 25.
- - West Virginia (R+22): After initially filing the papers to run for re-election, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin decided to retire from the Senate. Prominent Republican candidates for the seat are current Governor Jim Justice and current Congressman Alex Mooney. On the Democratic side the only declared candidate is Marine Corps veteran and community activist Zachary Shrewsbury. Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliot has expressed interest in seeking the Democratic nomination for this seat, but has not officially declared his candidacy. West Virginia will hold its primary on May 14.
Tagged:
Comments
First term incumbents seeking re-election
The first re-election campaign is always the hardest. Here are the races where candidates seek to transition from possible one-time fluke to fixture of the Senate.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Question marks
These are states where a long-term incumbent Senator has not yet officially announced whether they will seek re-election.
-
-
Fish out of water
Sometimes a Senator is faced with a tough re-election because of ideological drift in his state.
Wild card factor
The potential prize for Republicans is a net pick-up of two seats, or one seat plus the vice presidency, which would return control of the Senate to them. For Democrats the goal is to hold all current seats and maybe to pick up one more in case they lose the vice presidency.
So, thoughts about any or all of these races?
Only insofar as Senate elections are happening in the same year as the Presidential election.
Some states will hold their primaries for other offices at the same time as the presidential primary. A good rule of thumb is if the Senate primary happens in June or earlier they're probably for all candidates, whereas if the ones after that are held separately from the presidential race. The Republican National Convention convenes in mid-July this year, so presidential primaries obviously have to be finished by then.
Schiff, Porter, Lee, and Garvey have qualified for the debate to be held Jan 22; the other candidates can be disregarded. California will send a Democrat to the Senate in January of 2025, and it will probably be Schiff, who has raised a lot more money than Porter and Lee. The only real question is whether Garvey can get enough votes in the primary to take second, thus giving a little life to the party in a state which has not elected a Republican to state-wide office since -- I'm not sure, the 90s? -- but also assuring Schiff of a relatively easy win in November instead of an expensive fight with Porter. Lee is too liberal and too old to come in second in the current political climate, IMO, though she will have my vote in the primary.
The only recent poll I've found is from Politico, showing Schiff 28%, Garvey 19%, Porter 17%, Lee 14%. Garvey is a viable candidate only because he has name recognition among older voters, having played first base for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. I wonder how many remember the two paternity suits and his inability or unwillingness to manage his wealth (LATimes, 2006). Schiff, Porter and Lee all represent various districts in the House.
One interesting feature is that all the major candidates are from southern California. Senators Kamala Harris, Dianne Feinstein, and Barbara Boxer are/were all from NorCal, but Alex Padilla is from SoCal, so whoever is elected, for the first time in decades both our senators will be from the southern half of the state. The Bay Area tends to punch above its demographic weight in sending people to state-wide office; my theory is that the area being both richer and smaller makes the politics more cut-throat, and it's good preparation for a state-wide race.
You forget the Governator.
Lake is apparently well known in Arizona political circles for constantly wearing a wire (read the article for full details) so for DeWit to have made this offer seems ridiculously foolhardy. Maybe he's one of those folks who figure that such tactics will be used against other people.
I question why DeWit thinks it's a good idea to implicitly argue that politely accepting bribes is common practice among Republican Senators.
At least Lake has kept her sense of humor.
For context, that sentence was uttered at Donald Trump's New Hampshire primary victory party. Hilarious!
I didn't watch the debate, as I didn't hear about it till I saw the reporting the next day. But if you haven't already seen it, you may be interested in this absolutely damning piece on Garvey in the LA Times today which tells of how this asshole who touts his family values has never had any relationship at all with the two children he fathered with different women outside of marriage and cut his oldest daughter and her family out of his life with no explanation 15 years ago: “There’s something lacking in him, something not authentic,” she said. “To be a man of the people, to truly have experience of being a totally complete, loving family man … I wouldn’t want the people of California to buy into that just because he hit a ball really well.”
It should be noted that although McConnell is retiring as leader of the Republican Senate caucus he has said he plans to keep his Senate seat, which isn't up for re-election until 2026. He probably sees himself adopting the kind of elder statesman role that Pelosi has carved out for herself in the House.
In other words, Menendez would probably lose in the primary but holds out hope that an exoneration would be a springboard to re-election.
Interestingly this is one of the rare cases where a Democratic member of Congress getting convicted actually increases the chances of the Democrats retaining this seat in the next Congress. Menendez did not compete in the primary due to the pending charges against him, leading Andy Kim to secure the Democratic nomination for this Senate seat. After that Menendez launched a campaign as an independent to retain his seat. I'm guessing that's now being shut down, meaning the Democratic vote will not be split in November.
So the idea is to take polls and then ask what Clippy thinks about them. Truly visionary!
I have - just this week - read a report from a "globally respected" think tank that used just such methodology - so sadly I don't think this is confined to wingnuts.
Look for divided government.
On to 2026--there will be a special election next year to fill JD Vance's seat in Ohio. That may be a bell weather for 26. When 26 happens 20 of the seats that will be up for grabs are held by Republicans.
Not if I am reading the election map correctly. All the metro areas appear to have gone blue, and the immediate suburban areas are not exactly a dark red.
Then too, the abortion amendment was overwhelmingly approved.
I think the seat will be up for grabs.
Although he just lost, would Sherrod Brown be the best candidate to run for the Democrats to take Vance’s seat, seeing that he has won in Ohio very recently and has a lot of blue collar support and credibility, many Trump supporters only vote in Presidential elections where Trump is on the ballot, and special and midterm elections in the first Trump term tended to go very well for Democrats?
Special elections (what we call by elections) allowed Republican Scott Brown to win in deep Blue Massachusetts in 2010 and Democrat Doug Jones to win in deep Red Alabama in 2017. In both cases, those senators lost reelection in a general election but the Democrats can use all the help that can get right now. It depends on who the Republican candidate in a special Senate election in Ohio is. Governor DeWine of Ohio is a more traditional conservative Republican who has managed to be very successful electorally without becoming a Yes Man for Trump. He is likely to appoint a Senator to fill Vance’s seat until the special election who has as good a chance as possible of winning that election (ie, not someone too extremist, annoying, or bizarre).
2026 seems like another tough years for Democrats in the Senate. They're only defending thirteen seats compared to the Republican's twenty, which would typically give them the advantage, but looks can be deceiving. Two of the seats currently held by Democrats that will be up for re-election in 2026 are fairly closely divided (Georgia and Michigan), while the only vulnerable looking Republican Senator up for election that year is Susan Collins of Maine.
States to follow in 2026
Maine, Susan Collins is a moderate Republican. She may retire by then.
North Carolina, going purple more and more.
Iowa. Yes Iowa. Don't ask me why.
Texas?
And the Senate?
There is a great deal of speculation that Roy Cooper, the current (for seven more weeks), term-limited governor who has been pretty popular even among some Republicans, may challenge Thom Tillis in the 2026 Senate election. Cooper would be a very strong candidate. Whether that will get him across the line first is not at all a given.
So, not everything is going Trump's way.
Thank God
There may be a certain irony in Gallego defeating Lake.
There’s a significant Hispanic vote in Arizona. Quite a lot of evidence that Hispanic men voted almost 50% for Trump and a strong suggestion that the reason includes, simply, that she was a woman! Trump won Arizona easily so only a significant split vote led to Lake’s defeat. So Lake may have lost a reason similar to at least one the factors leading to the Harris loss.
Susan Collins announced today that she is running for re-election in 2026. If she wins she will be 74 at the start of her next term. If she doesn't win she'll still be 74 when the 120th Congress is seated.
Then I would expect her to vote for Gaetz,
Now that Trump has nominated Kennedy for Health and Human Services, though, that would be a tough one. I imagine that whole Department will be in full revolt.
I think from the Trumpian perspective that's a feature rather than a bug. The latter (both microscopic and macroscopic definitions), incidentally, are what will thrive under Kennedy's "leadership".