Purgatory: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread (Epiphanies rules apply)

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Comments

  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    I don't but I can't muster the energy to refute an obvious conspiracy theory.
    I appreciate how difficult it would be
    I don't but I can't muster the energy to refute an obvious conspiracy theory.

    If Biden was actually playing the sort of tactical game @Telford suggests, then a better tactic would have been to quit due to ill health a year ago, and give Kamala Harris a year's presidential incumbency to build a campaign off.

    Two points.

    1. Biden still wants to do a full term.
    2. He might not want to expose Harris to 12 months in office




  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Telford wrote: »
    2. He might not want to expose Harris to 12 months in office

    If Joe Biden didn’t want to risk Kamala Harris having to serve as president he shouldn’t have made her his vice president. That’s kind of why the job exists.
  • that would be fascinating! I wonder if Trump could manage to behave with any semblance of decency whatsoever, given the gender and race issues.

    Not joking here—why would he start now?
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    that would be fascinating! I wonder if Trump could manage to behave with any semblance of decency whatsoever, given the gender and race issues.

    I heard Trump is trying to get it moved to Fox News. I think Harris should take him up on that. Lotsa fun, either way.
  • MoyessaMoyessa Shipmate
    I’d like to hear from Biden himself.
  • NicoleMRNicoleMR Shipmate
    About what? He's already bowed out and endorsed Harris, what else is there for him to say?
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    NicoleMR wrote: »
    About what? He's already bowed out and endorsed Harris, what else is there for him to say?

    I actually think it'd be cool if he ran his own little franchise campaign, hitting the waffle shops and Legion Halls in Flyover. He'd be under a lot less scrutiny and pressure, and could just ramble on at leisure.
  • Telford wrote: »
    Biden has lost his speaking ability but I don't reckon he's lost his intelligence. I don't think he ever intended to run for a second term.

    In my opinion and I am happy to accept your scorn, he always wanted Harris to run for President. He realised she was not popular enough to win the nomination by normal means. He therefore got the nomination and kept it long enough so that the Democrats would have no choice but to accept her as candidate.
    Now I may well be wrong but I've had may say, so pile in

    I don't agree but I don't think it impossible.

    My view 6 months ago was that Biden would serve 2 years of a second term and then resign.

    None of us know for sure how this will pan out but the GOP machine has spent a huge amount of energy and cash on an attack that has just folded completely.

    They have to go full misogynistic racism now. That'll play well with the base but no one else.

    In a post-Roe world I can see an enthusiastic Harris turn out that kills Trump's campaign.

    I don't think Biden did it deliberately but I can see it working out well nonetheless.

    Not agreeing but no scorn.

    AFZ
  • It's Harris.

    She has enough pledged delegates.
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host
    Trump campaign is furious because so much of their energy has been focussed on denigrating Biden. Perhaps they should have put more effort into lauding the qualities and achievements of Donald Trump. Surely that would be as great for them whoever he is standing against.

    [Now I’ve written that I can turn my irony meter on again.]
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    BroJames wrote: »
    Trump campaign is furious because so much of their energy has been focussed on denigrating Biden.

    Furious, petulant and complaining about wasted money.

    I had a good laugh at that.

  • DafydDafyd Hell Host
    Telford wrote: »
    Biden has lost his speaking ability but I don't reckon he's lost his intelligence. I don't think he ever intended to run for a second term.

    In my opinion and I am happy to accept your scorn, he always wanted Harris to run for President. He realised she was not popular enough to win the nomination by normal means. He therefore got the nomination and kept it long enough so that the Democrats would have no choice but to accept her as candidate.
    Why would he want her to run for President so much that he'd do that?
    He wouldn't have made her VP if he didn't respect her and think her competent, and I'm sure he likes her personally having worked with her for four years, but I can't believe that he likes her so much more than other potential Democratic candidates that he'd resort to devious means to get her to run.
    Further, the idea that he'd want someone to run for President but wouldn't want to expose her to twelve months in office makes no sense. That's just supposing that he must be being devious for the sake of being devious.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    Question from a Brit. How much influence will Harris’ gender and ethnic background have the vote. I can see some coming out to vote for her because of it but equally some will vote against her because of it. Will it be a factor or can it just be ignored?
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Hugal wrote: »
    Question from a Brit. How much influence will Harris’ gender and ethnic background have the vote. I can see some coming out to vote for her because of it but equally some will vote against her because of it. Will it be a factor or can it just be ignored?

    It can't be ignored. It's historic. And MAGA will roll out all their ugly misogyny and racism. At the same time, it will attract many Black and brown voters, women, and young people.

    A group called Win with Black Women held a Zoom call Sunday to raise support for Harris. They hold these calls every Sunday night apparently, and they usually get a couple hundred people. Before it even started the call this week had maxed out its 1000-person capacity in the waiting room. They got Zoom to bump it up, and over 44,000 people were on the call, most having learned of it by word of mouth (well, text). Even more people saw it, because people streamed it on YouTube and Twitch. Lots of Black women politicians, entertainers and celebrities were on it. They raised $1.5 million in 3 hours.

    Black women are the most loyal of all Democratic voters, and candidates don't win without them. That thousands of Black women are fired up to work for Harris' election is huge. As a group they didn't want Biden to quit because they thought the Democrats would ignore Harris, and they didn't want to see a Black woman get skipped over. But Democrats did the right thing, so Black women and their closest allies are in the fight.

    The election is still very tight, but this is huge.
  • HedgehogHedgehog Shipmate
    What is the over-under on how many days before Trump demands to see Harris' long-form birth certificate?
  • I wonder if Trump will drop out before November.

    Idle speculation, but he doesn't look well either.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    KoF wrote: »
    I wonder if Trump will drop out before November.

    Idle speculation, but he doesn't look well either.

    He's not looked well for months and the attempted assassination will have taken its toll.
  • He seems to have lost a lot of weight, which is not necessarily a bad thing, but yes - being shot may well have long term effects. even if the actual physical damage was minor...
  • BroJames wrote: »
    Trump campaign is furious because so much of their energy has been focussed on denigrating Biden. Perhaps they should have put more effort into lauding the qualities and achievements of Donald Trump.

    That would take them about three minutes, if that.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    They have to go full misogynistic racism now. That'll play well with the base but no one else.

    I've seen several prominent American right wingers re-Xeeting indicted insurrectionist John Eastman's 2020 essay from Newsweek about how Kamala Harris isn't an American citizen because her parents were filthy immigrants so she's not qualified to be vice president. No links because fuck those guys, but our discussion from four years ago when the article was first published starts here. My analysis of some of the consequences of Eastman's arguments, if taken seriously, can be found here.

    At any rate, expect a return of birtherism coupled with arguments that of course Harris isn't qualified to be president because she's black. During Obama's two terms they referred to him as an affirmative action hire. I think the favored term is now "DEI hire".
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Hedgehog wrote: »
    What is the over-under on how many days before Trump demands to see Harris' long-form birth certificate?

    2
    KoF wrote: »
    I wonder if Trump will drop out before November.

    Idle speculation, but he doesn't look well either.

    He will not drop out. The presidency is his get-out-of-jail-free card.
    Boogie wrote: »
    He's not looked well for months and the attempted assassination will have taken its toll.

    I wouldn't count on it. Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a scholar of fascism, recently wrote in her Substack about how strongmen don't react to assassination attempts the way we think normal people would. There's a good chance he was psychologically prepared for this in some ways. I think it would be part of the victim-strongman duality she talks about.
    https://lucid.substack.com/p/the-trump-attack-and-authoritarian?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
  • Nick TamenNick Tamen Shipmate
    edited July 2024
    Crœsos wrote: »
    They have to go full misogynistic racism now. That'll play well with the base but no one else.

    I've seen several prominent American right wingers re-Xeeting indicted insurrectionist John Eastman's 2020 essay from Newsweek about how Kamala Harris isn't an American citizen because her parents were filthy immigrants so she's not qualified to be vice president. No links because fuck those guys, but our discussion from four years ago when the article was first published starts here. My analysis of some of the consequences of Eastman's arguments, if taken seriously, can be found here.

    At any rate, expect a return of birtherism coupled with arguments that of course Harris isn't qualified to be president because she's black. During Obama's two terms they referred to him as an affirmative action hire. I think the favored term is now "DEI hire".
    Which has already been used by Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tennessee), among others. Meanwhile, Sebastian Gorka, former Deputy Assistant to President Trump, has referred to her as “colored.”

    I wish I shared the view that it will play well with the base but no one else, but I think it definitely may play with some outside the base. I just hope it’s not too many, and that more will be repulsed. If they lay it on as thick as they have the last few days, I think the risk of it turning off more voters in the middle than it plays with increases.


  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    There is a report that Trump may be reconsidering his choice of J.D. Vance as Vice President. Vance was chosen, not to appeal to marginal voters, but to solidify the MAGA base.

    The fact remains this election will be decided on the margins.

    I think Harris will do well to select a VP from a Democrat who has done well in a red or swing state. Several names have been mentioned. It still seems like an open field.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Hedgehog wrote: »
    What is the over-under on how many days before Trump demands to see Harris' long-form birth certificate?

    2
    KoF wrote: »
    I wonder if Trump will drop out before November.

    Idle speculation, but he doesn't look well either.

    He will not drop out. The presidency is his get-out-of-jail-free card.
    Boogie wrote: »
    He's not looked well for months and the attempted assassination will have taken its toll.

    I wouldn't count on it. Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a scholar of fascism, recently wrote in her Substack about how strongmen don't react to assassination attempts the way we think normal people would. There's a good chance he was psychologically prepared for this in some ways. I think it would be part of the victim-strongman duality she talks about.
    https://lucid.substack.com/p/the-trump-attack-and-authoritarian?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
  • The_RivThe_Riv Shipmate
    "The Wall Street Journal reported that the Harris campaign sought vetting materials from Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Governor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, and Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota."

    KY Governor Andy Breshear is not on the initial short list. BTW, @Crœsos, I didn't float his name b/c I thought KY would somehow be in play for Democrats if he ran, but b/c I think his record of service -- as a Democrat -- in a state as red as KY is admirable. I don't have nearly enough political acumen to know who Harris' running mate *should* be. I just know that Breshear is popular among Republicans there. Certainly that's a more local/regional phenomenon that's unsustainable on the national level once the MAGA machinery takes its low aim.

    I'm so encouraged by these recent events! Britain has just returned a Labor Government, France has just rejected the far Right for the second time in a row... let America choose the better angels of its nature for a second time running, too!!! #Harris/_____!!!
  • HarryCHHarryCH Shipmate
    I live in Illinois, and I would be very happy to keep Pritzker here, one of the best governors we have had in many years.

    I doubt Whitmer will get the nod--although I like her a lot--as I don't think the American public is ready for two women at the top.
  • I am guessing it will be a man from a red state. She needs those votes.
  • The_RivThe_Riv Shipmate
    HarryCH wrote: »
    I live in Illinois, and I would be very happy to keep Pritzker here, one of the best governors we have had in many years.

    I doubt Whitmer will get the nod--although I like her a lot--as I don't think the American public is ready for two women at the top.

    I don't think that a lot of the American public is ready for one woman at the top! But yes, two women feels unlikely. I want the Democrats/Harris Campaign to take their time deciding. I want them to fully vet the candidates, pick one, and then fully vet them again.
  • Truly, up to a point, the longer they wait (and make it clear that they ARE vetting carefully), the longer the focus stays off Trump. Also, the less time Trump has to pick holes in the candidate, whoever he (yes, it's gotta be a "he") may be.

    I hope they get some top PR strategists to advise her. The folks advising Biden have done poorly.
  • FirenzeFirenze Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Had the assassination attempt succeeded I fancy someone like Vance would have ridden to victory on the coat-tails of martyrdom. Plucky Kamala to the rescue is a better plot twist.
  • Graven ImageGraven Image Shipmate
    edited July 2024
    I am refreshed to see Harris on my news feeds instead of Trump daily. She has pushed him off the news cycle, which is good free air time for the Democrats. I am also happy to see my 20-year-old grandchildren getting excited about voting.
  • The_RivThe_Riv Shipmate
    Energy for VP Harris is definitely UP. We love to see it.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    edited July 2024
    Ruth wrote: »
    Boogie wrote: »
    He's not looked well for months and the attempted assassination will have taken its toll.

    I wouldn't count on it. Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a scholar of fascism, recently wrote in her Substack about how strongmen don't react to assassination attempts the way we think normal people would.

    Yes, but even strongmen can become too ill to function.

  • Telford wrote: »
    Telford wrote: »
    Biden has lost his speaking ability but I don't reckon he's lost his intelligence. I don't think he ever intended to run for a second term.

    In my opinion and I am happy to accept your scorn, he always wanted Harris to run for President. He realised she was not popular enough to win the nomination by normal means. He therefore got the nomination and kept it long enough so that the Democrats would have no choice but to accept her as candidate.
    Now I may well be wrong but I've had may say, so pile in

    Doesn't look like anyone's taken you up on your offer.

    I can't believe they agree with me.


    Why should they? Why should anyone? It doesn't bear scrutiny. ;)
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Look for a Coconut Revolution. Kamala Harris once told the story of her mother asking her if she just fell out of a Coconut Tree as if she did not realize the obvious. Now Dems are pasting coconut emojies on their messages. She has also taking on the moniker of being a "brat," as in the XCX song.

    She is really going for the youth vote.
  • jedijudyjedijudy Heaven Host
    My thirty-something daughter has been even more distraught than me over the last few months. Actually she was totally furious about having two ancient white men as the choices offered. So was I.

    Sunday, after hearing the announcement about Biden not running for POTUS this time, she was still angry because she said it should have happened a year and a half ago.

    Yesterday, we did have a chance to talk again, and she's is actually hopeful, as I am! (I'm actually very excited, and I suspect she'll get to that point very soon.) Her husband is a cradle Republican, who seems to think the Republican Way of the past is the very best. I do think that he doesn't want to vote for Trump, as he refused to vote in the last election. He also (in my opinion based on observation), can't bring himself to vote for a Democrat.

    It's very strange, since people assume he's a liberal from his actions. He and my daughter went to an office one time and the owner apologized profusely for having FOX on the TV. He was puzzled about that reaction, and I told my s-i-l that he doesn't have the typical right-wing attitudes in his interactions with people. He denied it, but I gave him a bunch of examples. He growled and didn't say anything else.

    He gives me hope, also, that young Republicans like him will choose to not vote (which is sad) or even better, will decide that they are actively going to vote for Kamala!

  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    jedijudy wrote: »
    My thirty-something daughter has been even more distraught than me over the last few months. Actually she was totally furious about having two ancient white men as the choices offered. So was I.

    Sunday, after hearing the announcement about Biden not running for POTUS this time, she was still angry because she said it should have happened a year and a half ago.

    Yesterday, we did have a chance to talk again, and she's is actually hopeful, as I am! (I'm actually very excited, and I suspect she'll get to that point very soon.) Her husband is a cradle Republican, who seems to think the Republican Way of the past is the very best. I do think that he doesn't want to vote for Trump, as he refused to vote in the last election. He also (in my opinion based on observation), can't bring himself to vote for a Democrat.

    It's very strange, since people assume he's a liberal from his actions. He and my daughter went to an office one time and the owner apologized profusely for having FOX on the TV. He was puzzled about that reaction, and I told my s-i-l that he doesn't have the typical right-wing attitudes in his interactions with people. He denied it, but I gave him a bunch of examples. He growled and didn't say anything else.

    He gives me hope, also, that young Republicans like him will choose to not vote (which is sad) or even better, will decide that they are actively going to vote for Kamala!

    Last night I saw the first 10 minute (approx) of her speech in Milwaukee. There were laughs, smiles, name mentions and the usual audience pointing and nothing else. Perhaps I missed the substance.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Telford wrote: »
    Last night I saw the first 10 minute (approx) of her speech in Milwaukee. There were laughs, smiles, name mentions and the usual audience pointing and nothing else. Perhaps I missed the substance.

    For those who are interested in judging for themselves, Vice President Harris' Wisconsin appearance can be watched here. It's her first campaign appearance since President Biden withdrew from the race.
  • edited July 2024
    I had the pleasure of listening to Vice President Harris when she spoke to the 2022 United Steelworkers union convention in Las Vegas, to which i was a delegate. This was part of the Biden outreach to organized labor. It was one of the most union-positive statements by any US administration since the dark days of the PATCO Strike of 1981. You were saying about substance?
  • MamacitaMamacita Shipmate
    edited July 2024
    HarryCH wrote: »
    I live in Illinois, and I would be very happy to keep Pritzker here, one of the best governors we have had in many years.
    I'd like to keep him here too. He's really competent and apparently decent (we have had our share of governors who end up in prison). Despite Pritzker's excellent record, I think there's a risk in adding him to the ticket. He's from a reliably blue state, so he won't attract a new cohort of voters. But more seriously, the MAGA crowd would have a field day with someone from Chicago - a word they associate (somewhat unfairly) with runaway crime. Since they're already running a fear-based campaign ginning up all kinds of crime-wave scenarios, I'm afraid a Chicago-based politician, even a good one, would give them too much fodder for lies and scare tactics.

  • (BTW, I find it rather creepy that so many US sources refer constantly to *President* Trump. He isn't, though he was, and may well be again, but even so...).

    It may be a little odd but it is formally correct. All former presidents get the honorific title. Only the current incumbent is The President but Presidents Carter, Clinton, Bush and Obama are all addressed in this way.


    There's been slippage on this in recent years, but the strictest form is that only the current president is referred to as president or addressed as "Mr. President." Former presidents are addressed according to the highest rank they held prior to the presidency, so Carter, Clinton, and Bush would be addressed as "Governor" and Obama as "Senator." This is rarely observed in practice anymore, sadly.
  • I saw an excerpt from her speech, during which basically she excoriated Trump. I thought she did it well, and showed lots of energy, wit, brio, etc. She seems to offer something refreshing, after two old men.
  • jedijudy wrote: »
    My thirty-something daughter has been even more distraught than me over the last few months. Actually she was totally furious about having two ancient white men as the choices offered. So was I.

    Sunday, after hearing the announcement about Biden not running for POTUS this time, she was still angry because she said it should have happened a year and a half ago.

    Yesterday, we did have a chance to talk again, and she's is actually hopeful, as I am! (I'm actually very excited, and I suspect she'll get to that point very soon.) Her husband is a cradle Republican, who seems to think the Republican Way of the past is the very best. I do think that he doesn't want to vote for Trump, as he refused to vote in the last election. He also (in my opinion based on observation), can't bring himself to vote for a Democrat.

    It's very strange, since people assume he's a liberal from his actions. He and my daughter went to an office one time and the owner apologized profusely for having FOX on the TV. He was puzzled about that reaction, and I told my s-i-l that he doesn't have the typical right-wing attitudes in his interactions with people. He denied it, but I gave him a bunch of examples. He growled and didn't say anything else.

    He gives me hope, also, that young Republicans like him will choose to not vote (which is sad) or even better, will decide that they are actively going to vote for Kamala!

    I can recommend he check out the Dispatch and the Bulwark websites, and also David French. Old-school conservative people who have basically found themselves homeless since Trumpism took over the party. The two websites are old-school, anti-Trump conservative political journalism which is trying to be as honest and fair as possible, and even though I would disagree with a lot of their political views, they’re trying to be a voice of reason. It’s been good seeing that there are people on “the other side” who are like this.
  • Telford wrote: »
    Biden has lost his speaking ability but I don't reckon he's lost his intelligence. I don't think he ever intended to run for a second term.

    In my opinion and I am happy to accept your scorn, he always wanted Harris to run for President. He realised she was not popular enough to win the nomination by normal means. He therefore got the nomination and kept it long enough so that the Democrats would have no choice but to accept her as candidate.
    Now I may well be wrong but I've had may say, so pile in

    Just came across this on TwiX...

    Others thinking the same...

    https://x.com/PamKeithFL/status/1815742310396707180?t=a5C8Rx5ib6dRzIp6ylposg&s=19
  • Randy Rainbow on Kamala Harris, back when she was running for VP, to the tune of “Camelot.”

    It’s a quite nice song.

    https://youtu.be/0RbKStEFNT8?si=H8Qc6IsRsB4kKLtJ
  • Alan29Alan29 Shipmate
    I see Liz Truss is over there helping Trump.
    Excellent.
    That should help him no end.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    Alan29 wrote: »
    I see Liz Truss is over there helping Trump.
    Excellent.
    That should help him no end.

    😂😂



    Just came across this on TwiX...

    Others thinking the same...

    https://x.com/PamKeithFL/status/1815742310396707180?t=a5C8Rx5ib6dRzIp6ylposg&s=19

    Probably not. I’d say it was a fortuitous turn of events. But, if he claims it was deliberate, I’ll believe him.

  • Telford wrote: »
    jedijudy wrote: »
    My thirty-something daughter has been even more distraught than me over the last few months. Actually she was totally furious about having two ancient white men as the choices offered. So was I.

    Sunday, after hearing the announcement about Biden not running for POTUS this time, she was still angry because she said it should have happened a year and a half ago.

    Yesterday, we did have a chance to talk again, and she's is actually hopeful, as I am! (I'm actually very excited, and I suspect she'll get to that point very soon.) Her husband is a cradle Republican, who seems to think the Republican Way of the past is the very best. I do think that he doesn't want to vote for Trump, as he refused to vote in the last election. He also (in my opinion based on observation), can't bring himself to vote for a Democrat.

    It's very strange, since people assume he's a liberal from his actions. He and my daughter went to an office one time and the owner apologized profusely for having FOX on the TV. He was puzzled about that reaction, and I told my s-i-l that he doesn't have the typical right-wing attitudes in his interactions with people. He denied it, but I gave him a bunch of examples. He growled and didn't say anything else.

    He gives me hope, also, that young Republicans like him will choose to not vote (which is sad) or even better, will decide that they are actively going to vote for Kamala!

    Last night I saw the first 10 minute (approx) of her speech in Milwaukee. There were laughs, smiles, name mentions and the usual audience pointing and nothing else. Perhaps I missed the substance.
    Well, if you only watch the introductory bits, yes, you’re probably going to miss the substance.


  • Alan29 wrote: »
    I see Liz Truss is over there helping Trump.
    Excellent.
    That should help him no end.

    It certainly gets her out of our way...though I sympathise with our US cousins, who have enough egregious politicians of their own already.
This discussion has been closed.