If Trump wins the election and Biden dies soon after, will the USA have a leader that they have rejected at the polls ?
Could you rephrase this? I don’t get it either.
I'm assuming he means...
Trump wins.
Biden dies before the inauguration.
Harris becomes president.
The USA then has a leader, Harris, whom they had rejected at the polls.
BUT...
In your scenario, Harris wasn't rejected at the polls. She won the 2020 election as veep, ie. the person who takes over in the event of the president's death, and her term expires in January, regardless of who wins in November.
In this scenario, there would be no problem. Harris appears to be a normal human being, and would simply serve out the term and step down for the next person, regardless of what happens at the November election. That's what normal people do. They don't plot insurrections.
I am following news about the election as closely as I can without signing up to any of the news channels. My favourite brother lives in the US and is married to an American woman. As much as I'd like him to move back to Aotearoa/ NZ, it's not what he wants to do.
If Trump wins the election and Biden dies soon after, will the USA have a leader that they have rejected at the polls ?
Could you rephrase this? I don’t get it either.
I'm assuming he means...
Trump wins.
Biden dies before the inauguration.
Harris becomes president.
The USA then has a leader, Harris, whom they had rejected at the polls.
Correct.
BUT...
In your scenario, Harris wasn't rejected at the polls. She won the 2020 election as veep, ie. the person who takes over in the event of the president's death, and her term expires in January, regardless of who wins in November.
I understand what the rules are but in my scenerio. the voters have indicated that they don't want her to be president. Thanks for your reply.
If Trump wins the election and Biden dies soon after, will the USA have a leader that they have rejected at the polls ?
Could you rephrase this? I don’t get it either.
I'm assuming he means...
Trump wins.
Biden dies before the inauguration.
Harris becomes president.
The USA then has a leader, Harris, whom they had rejected at the polls.
Correct.
BUT...
In your scenario, Harris wasn't rejected at the polls. She won the 2020 election as veep, ie. the person who takes over in the event of the president's death, and her term expires in January, regardless of who wins in November.
I understand what the rules are but in my scenerio. the voters have indicated that they don't want her to be president. Thanks for your reply.
When voters elected Harris veep in 2020, they were indicating that they wanted her to become president should Biden cease to be president any time before January 20 2025. If voters don't wish for her to be president past 1/20/25, they can vote for someone else on November 5th 2024.
I am following news about the election as closely as I can without signing up to any of the news channels. My favourite brother lives in the US and is married to an American woman. As much as I'd like him to move back to Aotearoa/ NZ, it's not what he wants to do.
As far as I can, I’m following it via the BBC’s Americast podcast (available on the BBC Sounds app).
If Trump wins in November that means the voters have said they don't want Harris to be president during the term of the 47th president, which starts in January. They have said nothing at all about the period between the election and the coming inauguration, because that's not what the 11/2024 election is about.
I am following news about the election as closely as I can without signing up to any of the news channels. My favourite brother lives in the US and is married to an American woman. As much as I'd like him to move back to Aotearoa/ NZ, it's not what he wants to do.
As far as I can, I’m following it via the BBC’s Americast podcast (available on the BBC Sounds app).
Ok... [geek] Americast is ok but it's not always good on detail
The Daily Beans https://www.dailybeanspod.com will give you very detailed, daily US news. Very definite Democrat perspective
The Rest Is Politics US https://m.youtube.com/@RestPoliticsUS is like Americast in that it's made specifically for a UK audience. Katty Kay is a Brit by birth and lives in DC. It won't be to everyone's taste as Scaramucci is very much a Republican and a strong personality. However, I find insights from someone who has worked so closely with Mr Trump really helpful.
Those cover my usual commute...
Michael's Cohen also has good insights as does Mary Trump. Hugo Lowell in The Guardian is well worth reading. I also keep an eye of 270towin, Nate Silver and a few others
If Trump wins the election and Biden dies soon after, will the USA have a leader that they have rejected at the polls ?
Could you rephrase this? I don’t get it either.
I'm assuming he means...
Trump wins.
Biden dies before the inauguration.
Harris becomes president.
The USA then has a leader, Harris, whom they had rejected at the polls.
Correct.
BUT...
In your scenario, Harris wasn't rejected at the polls. She won the 2020 election as veep, ie. the person who takes over in the event of the president's death, and her term expires in January, regardless of who wins in November.
I understand what the rules are but in my scenerio. the voters have indicated that they don't want her to be president. Thanks for your reply.
That was true for Trump between Nov 2020 and Jan 2021; for Bush Sr. between Nov 1992 and Jan 1993; and for Carter between Nov 1980 and Jan 1981. It's an entirely normal part of the US presidential system.
Plus there is every chance that "the voters" indicate they want Harris to be president but the electoral college says otherwise. As happened in 2000 and 2016.
I think the bigger question is what Trump is likely to do if he loses.
This is what bothers me too. I think Harris winning is the most likely outcome but I was wrong in 2016.
I spend some time on X. MTG and Laura Loomer spend a lot of time on X. So, I imagine, do hackers from Russia, Iran and China. There is no doubt that on X there is a fostering of lies, distrust and discontent.
The stall is already being set out for a further attempted insurrection if Trump loses. I don’t think they will bother too much with the prior legal route. Certainly the Russians, Chinese and Iranians would love a protracted period of street disturbance.
The stall is already being set out for a further attempted insurrection if Trump loses. I don’t think they will bother too much with the prior legal route. Certainly the Russians, Chinese and Iranians would love a protracted period of street disturbance.
I think the FBI are all over this as well - in a way that Bill Barr (and others) prevented them from being so last time.
As you say, there are a large number of people who will never believe it when(if) Trump loses and they are being deliberately indoctrinated to this view. However, the instruments of the State are being allowed to prepare for this fact, this time.
If Trump wins the election and Biden dies soon after, will the USA have a leader that they have rejected at the polls ?
It wouldn't be the first time. George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid in 1992 (to Bill Clinton). So between the election in November of 1992 and January of 1993, the President of the US was a man that the voters had rejected at the polls. That sort of thing can happen when there is a gap between winning an election and taking office.
If Trump wins the election and Biden dies soon after, will the USA have a leader that they have rejected at the polls ?
It wouldn't be the first time. George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid in 1992 (to Bill Clinton). So between the election in November of 1992 and January of 1993, the President of the US was a man that the voters had rejected at the polls. That sort of thing can happen when there is a gap between winning an election and taking office.
And let us not forget the period from November 4, 2020 to January 20, 2021.
Heck, for two and a half years the United States had a president who had not been elected (by the electoral college) as either president or vice president.
Heck, for two and a half years the United States had a president who had not been elected (by the electoral college) as either president or vice president.
Which was remarkable, but well within the rules. People weren't mad about it until Ford pardoned Nixon.
Back to the current situation: The Uncommitted movement won't endorse Harris, but
it "opposes a Donald Trump presidency, whose agenda includes plans to accelerate the killing in Gaza while intensifying the suppression of anti-war organizing" and "is not recommending a third-party vote in the Presidential election, especially as third party votes in key swing states could help inadvertently deliver a Trump presidency given our country's broken electoral college system."
So they're telling people to vote for Harris but not endorsing her. If the Democrats lose Michigan and Uncommitted is the reason, they won't be the only ones who suffer under a second Trump administration. I understand standing on principle, but I think they've picked the wrong principle.
The little Jewish Historical Museum Ms. C runs is even beefing up its security with an array of external security cameras. It does share a building with the shul.
Meanwhile, in the Tar Heel State, our Lieutenant Governor, who is also the Republican candidate for Governor and who is one of the few people who can actually make Trump appear reasonable and measured, just might be making things harder for Trump and other Republican here. At the very least, he’s demonstrating that anytime we think he couldn’t possibly get any more outrageous, he’s ready to prove us wrong.
The little Jewish Historical Museum Ms. C runs is even beefing up its security with an array of external security cameras. It does share a building with the shul.
Also the phrase T uses, “voting for the enemy,” jumps out at me.
Meanwhile, in the Tar Heel State, our Lieutenant Governor, who is also the Republican candidate for Governor and who is one of the few people who can actually make Trump appear reasonable and measured, just might be making things harder for Trump and other Republican here. At the very least, he’s demonstrating that anytime we think he couldn’t possibly get any more outrageous, he’s ready to prove us wrong.
The real question, at least as far as this particular thread goes, is whether Robinson's self-declared Nazism and his also-self-declared love of transgender porn (guess which one the current GOP finds more objectionable) will have any upballot effect on how the swing state of North Carolina assigns its 16 electoral votes. If Republicans split their ticket or simply leave the vote for governor blank this probably won't have much of an effect. If Republicans decide to stay home the effects could be disastrous for the Trump campaign.
Naturally every Democrat running in North Carolina is rushing to make ad of their opponent posing with or speaking well of Robinson. That includes the Harris/Walz campaign.
Meanwhile, in the Tar Heel State, our Lieutenant Governor, who is also the Republican candidate for Governor and who is one of the few people who can actually make Trump appear reasonable and measured, just might be making things harder for Trump and other Republican here. At the very least, he’s demonstrating that anytime we think he couldn’t possibly get any more outrageous, he’s ready to prove us wrong.
The real question, at least as far as this particular thread goes, is whether Robinson's self-declared Nazism and his also-self-declared love of transgender porn (guess which one the current GOP finds more objectionable) will have any upballot effect on how the swing state of North Carolina assigns its 16 electoral votes.
Yes, which is why I said “just might be making things harder for Trump” and “at the very least.”
It well may have no effect on the presidential election at all. Or it may just have a slight effect. But it as seems to get said a lot these days, in a swing state, even a small effect may be a significant effect. And as you say, the Harris-Walz campaign is definitely tying to tie Trump to the candidate he recently called “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
But no, I’m not predicting a Harris win in North Carolina. I’m hoping for it, and I don’t think it’s impossible, but I’m not predicting it.
My partner used to live in North Carolina and still has friends in Charlotte - he's going to touch base with all of them before the election. His own little personal phone bank.
And in other news, Trump, Lindsey Graham and others are trying to get Nebraska lawmakers to change Nebraska law so that all 5 of the state’s electoral votes are winner-take-all statewide, rather than 2 awarded based on the statewide vote and the remaining three awarded based on the votes in Nebraska’s congressional districts. (Nebraska is the one US state with a unicameral legislature, which is made up of 49 senators.)
Sounds like Harris has Trump by the short hairs. She has accepted an invitation from CNN to a debate on 23 October. Trump says he will not do it, but you can bet she is going to egg him on until he has to do it. After all, would Trump really want JD Vance to have the last word on the debate stage? Do I hear chickens in the background?
Several attendees who stood on stage with Donald Trump at a recent rally in Tucson, Ariz., reported significant eye injuries following the Sept. 12 event, saying they had burning pain and temporary blindness immediately afterward.
Dr. Jules Winokur, residency program director and vice chair of ophthalmology for Northwell Health, tells PEOPLE that the symptoms point to either inadvertent chemical exposure, or UV light toxicity.
“There's no way I could know, based on the reports, what's going on,” cautioned Winokur, who added, “We need to examine people to see what's going on.”
But since the symptoms, while painful, were temporary, he theorized that “there may have been a chemical, because that can irritate the eye.”
<snip>
“The other possibility is something called UV toxicity,” which, he explains, is a condition that occurs when too much ultraviolet exposure causes inflammation on the surface of the eye — a potential hazard if UV lights were used at the venue.
Given those two possibilities my guess would be UV toxicity. Almost no one in U.S. politics wants to admit COVID is a problem anymore, but politicians who make a lot of public appearances have to take into account that the U.S. is at what seems to be the tail end of a pretty sizeable COVID wave. The least intrusive way to deal with this is a combination of UV light and good ventilation. My guess is some kind of screw up (or cheapskatedness) led to the installation of UV lights other thanthe 222 nm wavelength lamps that seem to be the safest for human exposure.
The big question is whether or not Trump himself will start to exhibit symptoms. Given the way political campaigns are loath to reveal any medical issues the candidate is having this could be difficult information to obtain.
Here's a link to a youtube video made by a guy I referred to upthread called Pat Kahnke, who has written a book as a reasonably conservative Christian, to try to persuade other conservative Christians that voting for Trump is a kind of lunatic thing to do. I know, but we are where we are, and he's rather (IMHO) good at it.
This was an interesting turn of recent events. Republicans wanted to shift Nebraska from its longstanding policy of splitting its Electoral College delegates to making it winner takes all. In the end, it was a key Republican State Senator, Mike McDonnell, who put the kibosh on the whole prospect for this election cycle.
This was an interesting turn of recent events. Republicans wanted to shift Nebraska from its longstanding policy of splitting its Electoral College delegates to making it winner takes all. In the end, it was a key Republican State Senator, Mike McDonnell, who put the kibosh on the whole prospect for this election cycle.
I think this demonstrates that Nebraskans, generally speaking, are more committed to their state's idiosyncrasies (like the unicameral legislature and sub-dividing their electoral votes) than they are to partisan loyalty.
The Nebraskan electoral vote that is up for grabs is the Omaha (and surrounding areas) vote. Senator McDonnell said this forces candidates not to take Nebraska for granted. If they want the vote, they have to work for it. Obama got the vote twice, Trump then got the vote, then Biden got the vote. The way the electoral vote may go, that one vote might put the one or the other over the top.
Unrelated to the candidates, but whoever CBS has building these sets and handling wardrobe and makeup really needs to be fired.
Norah O’Donnell looks like she’s wearing a suit she borrowed from her older sister, didn’t have time to properly put on makeup, and is sitting at a desk intended for a middle schooler under 1990s office halogen lights.
Gov. Walz's answer to the moderator's China question was less than convincing, as well.
He was asked about his false claims that he was in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square, and his response was essentially "I used to ride my bike with my friends growing up in rural Nebraska!"
Unrelated to the candidates, but whoever CBS has building these sets and handling wardrobe and makeup really needs to be fired.
Norah O’Donnell looks like she’s wearing a suit she borrowed from her older sister, didn’t have time to properly put on makeup, and is sitting at a desk intended for a middle schooler under 1990s office halogen lights.
Has anyone noticed Trump's call for one day of extreme legalized violence?
Extreme legalized violence by agents of the state. Yes, I'd noticed. For those want to see for themselves the video is here on Xitter. I think the on-screen caption "Trump Proposes Kristallnacht" really captures the spirit of the thing.
Has anyone noticed Trump's call for one day of extreme legalized violence?
Extreme legalized violence by agents of the state. Yes, I'd noticed. For those want to see for themselves the video is here on Xitter. I think the on-screen caption "Trump Proposes Kristallnacht" really captures the spirit of the thing.
I'm not sure if it's charitable or otherwise to suggest he probably never heard of Kristallnacht and was actually salivating over Duterte's Philippines.
Has anyone noticed Trump's call for one day of extreme legalized violence?
Extreme legalized violence by agents of the state. Yes, I'd noticed. For those want to see for themselves the video is here on Xitter. I think the on-screen caption "Trump Proposes Kristallnacht" really captures the spirit of the thing.
I'm not sure if it's charitable or otherwise to suggest he probably never heard of Kristallnacht and was actually salivating over Duterte's Philippines.
Whoever wins Pennsylvania, probably wins the electoral college.
There is some analysis floating around that polling - which shows it is too close to call in the states that will make the difference - is probably underestimating support for Kamala Harris because the way they model the likelihood of voting is wrong. If that analysis is correct, Harris wins.
Early voting returns do not tell you who people have voted for. The ballots remained sealed until the polls have closed. In most states the in-person ballots are counted first. This was the reason for the Red Mirage* in 2020 when postal ballots were much more common than normal due to Covid. However, what is published is whether people asking for, and returning the ballots, are registered Republicans, Democrats or neither. This is the data being analysed here. Polling suggests that registered Democrats are almost all voting Harris but a relatively high percentage of Republicans will not vote Trump. We can leave that aside for now. Unless there is a large number of Democrats who are going to vote Trump, then it does not matter for our purposes here.
What's the conclusion of this data? Well, by comparing the returns to previous numbers, you can estimate turnout and proportions of the vote. It is speculative, but the people who do it have a pretty good track record.
This data shows Harris winning Pennsylvania.
If that happens then Harris will be the next president.
I am counting no chickens but this is hopeful so far.
AFZ
*Early vote counts showed Trump leading in many key counts but this was then superseded as the postal votes were added to the counts. Jack Smith's most recent Motion in the Jan 6th case shows he has extensive evidence that Trump knew that he was likely to lose and that this effect would be a really good way to pretend he actually won and that it was fraud.
We just found out Trump had his branded Bibles printed in China. This dude will even outsource God. But hey, I don’t blame Trump for not noticing the ‘Made in China’ sticker. They put them on the inside, a part of the Bible that he’s never looked at.
While I'm not convinced that the Trump Bible will have any measurable impact on voting-plans going into November, I like when it gets mentioned in the news, if only because I know how much the theologically literate among the xtian theocrats must think it's idolatrous crap, but are still expected to keep their mouths shut about it.
A nifty Republican reply might be to ask where the ELCA has its bibles manufactured(*), though the subtly of that would probably be lost on the party's paid propagandists, and certainly the party faithful.
A nifty Republican reply might be to ask where the ELCA has its bibles manufactured(*), though the subtly of that would probably be lost on the party's paid propagandists, and certainly the party faithful.
The ELCA Stidy Bible was released by Augsburg Fortress, which is headquartered in Minneapolis MN. That is what it says on its cover page.
But that is not the point. The point is Trump has long decried how China steals American jobs. Here he is selling a Bless the USA Bible published in China. In other words, he outsourced American jobs to where? I rest my case.
If he is able to sell all the Bibles, he will have grossed $7 mil. He is a grifter extraordinaire.
A nifty Republican reply might be to ask where the ELCA has its bibles manufactured(*), though the subtly of that would probably be lost on the party's paid propagandists, and certainly the party faithful.
The ELCA Stidy Bible was released by Augsburg Fortress, which is headquartered in Minneapolis MN. That is what it says on its cover page.
Well, yeah. But where are they manufactured?
But that is not the point. The point is Trump has long decried how China steals American jobs. Here he is selling a Bless the USA Bible published in China. In other words, he outsourced American jobs to where? I rest my case.
Agreed. But I do think that the economic-hypocrisy issue is really hitching a ride with the goofy-religion issue, the latter being much the more media-friendly talking-point.
If it were revealed that Trump was outsourcing the butter supply at Mar-A-Lago cafes, I doubt anyone would think it worth tweeting about.
A nifty Republican reply might be to ask where the ELCA has its bibles manufactured(*), though the subtly of that would probably be lost on the party's paid propagandists, and certainly the party faithful.
The ELCA Stidy Bible was released by Augsburg Fortress, which is headquartered in Minneapolis MN. That is what it says on its cover page.
Well, yeah. But where are they manufactured?
As Tim Walz commented yesterday, the Made In China mark is on the inside, which is the part of the Bible Trump never looks at.
But that is not the point. The point is Trump has long decried how China steals American jobs. Here he is selling a Bless the USA Bible published in China. In other words, he outsourced American jobs to where? I rest my case.
Agreed. But I do think that the economic-hypocrisy issue is really hitching a ride with the goofy-religion issue, the latter being much the more media-friendly talking-point.
If it were revealed that Trump was outsourcing the butter supply at Mar-A-Lago cafes, I doubt anyone would think it worth tweeting about.
Sure. But how many anti-immigration voters decided to abandon Trump because of those stories?
Not everything has to have a religious angle.
I'd say it definitely helps. Trump's personal corruption and hypocrisy have been on open display since he entered politics in the mid-2010s, and at this point anyone who isn't already repelled by it isn't going to be moved by one more story about undocumented workers, outsourcing, fraud, insulting soldiers, pilfering documents, abuse of women etc. And the relevant legal cases aren't gonna come to fruition until after the election.
But the 2022 midterms are known as "Roevember" for a reason. Dobbs finally jolted zonked-out suburbanites into realizing that the Republicans are deadly serious about eliminating reproductive rights, and it is by far the best issue the Democrats have for moving swing-voters.
So, the bibles are a good issue to tweet about, because they remind people of Trump's alliance with the religious right, and hence his pivotal role in overturning Roe.
Comments
In this scenario, there would be no problem. Harris appears to be a normal human being, and would simply serve out the term and step down for the next person, regardless of what happens at the November election. That's what normal people do. They don't plot insurrections.
But trends are important. Harris continues to increase her spread over Trump.
I am following news about the election as closely as I can without signing up to any of the news channels. My favourite brother lives in the US and is married to an American woman. As much as I'd like him to move back to Aotearoa/ NZ, it's not what he wants to do.
When voters elected Harris veep in 2020, they were indicating that they wanted her to become president should Biden cease to be president any time before January 20 2025. If voters don't wish for her to be president past 1/20/25, they can vote for someone else on November 5th 2024.
Ok... [geek]
Americast is ok but it's not always good on detail
The Daily Beans https://www.dailybeanspod.com will give you very detailed, daily US news. Very definite Democrat perspective
Clean Up of Aisle 45 https://mswmedia.com/show/clean-up-on-aisle-45/ is a weekly focus on The Trump legacy and what Project 2025 means
Jack https://mswmedia.com/show/jack-a-special-counsel-podcast/ features a former deputy director of the FBI and focuses on the various cases against Mr Trump
The Rest Is Politics US https://m.youtube.com/@RestPoliticsUS is like Americast in that it's made specifically for a UK audience. Katty Kay is a Brit by birth and lives in DC. It won't be to everyone's taste as Scaramucci is very much a Republican and a strong personality. However, I find insights from someone who has worked so closely with Mr Trump really helpful.
Those cover my usual commute...
Michael's Cohen also has good insights as does Mary Trump. Hugo Lowell in The Guardian is well worth reading. I also keep an eye of 270towin, Nate Silver and a few others
[/geek]
AFZ
That was true for Trump between Nov 2020 and Jan 2021; for Bush Sr. between Nov 1992 and Jan 1993; and for Carter between Nov 1980 and Jan 1981. It's an entirely normal part of the US presidential system.
Plus there is every chance that "the voters" indicate they want Harris to be president but the electoral college says otherwise. As happened in 2000 and 2016.
I spend some time on X. MTG and Laura Loomer spend a lot of time on X. So, I imagine, do hackers from Russia, Iran and China. There is no doubt that on X there is a fostering of lies, distrust and discontent.
The stall is already being set out for a further attempted insurrection if Trump loses. I don’t think they will bother too much with the prior legal route. Certainly the Russians, Chinese and Iranians would love a protracted period of street disturbance.
It is.
But this time, the Government is prepared. Biden has designated the Vote Certification as a National Special Security Event.
I think the FBI are all over this as well - in a way that Bill Barr (and others) prevented them from being so last time.
As you say, there are a large number of people who will never believe it when(if) Trump loses and they are being deliberately indoctrinated to this view. However, the instruments of the State are being allowed to prepare for this fact, this time.
AFZ
It wouldn't be the first time. George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid in 1992 (to Bill Clinton). So between the election in November of 1992 and January of 1993, the President of the US was a man that the voters had rejected at the polls. That sort of thing can happen when there is a gap between winning an election and taking office.
And let us not forget the period from November 4, 2020 to January 20, 2021.
Heck, for two and a half years the United States had a president who had not been elected (by the electoral college) as either president or vice president.
Which was remarkable, but well within the rules. People weren't mad about it until Ford pardoned Nixon.
Back to the current situation: The Uncommitted movement won't endorse Harris, but
So they're telling people to vote for Harris but not endorsing her. If the Democrats lose Michigan and Uncommitted is the reason, they won't be the only ones who suffer under a second Trump administration. I understand standing on principle, but I think they've picked the wrong principle.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-comments-washington-summit-1.7329059
The little Jewish Historical Museum Ms. C runs is even beefing up its security with an array of external security cameras. It does share a building with the shul.
CNN: “I’m a black NAZI!”: NC GOP nominee for governor made dozens of disturbing comments on porn forum
CNN: Why a scandal consuming a Trump protégé could harm the ex-president in North Carolina
Also the phrase T uses, “voting for the enemy,” jumps out at me.
The real question, at least as far as this particular thread goes, is whether Robinson's self-declared Nazism and his also-self-declared love of transgender porn (guess which one the current GOP finds more objectionable) will have any upballot effect on how the swing state of North Carolina assigns its 16 electoral votes. If Republicans split their ticket or simply leave the vote for governor blank this probably won't have much of an effect. If Republicans decide to stay home the effects could be disastrous for the Trump campaign.
Naturally every Democrat running in North Carolina is rushing to make ad of their opponent posing with or speaking well of Robinson. That includes the Harris/Walz campaign.
It well may have no effect on the presidential election at all. Or it may just have a slight effect. But it as seems to get said a lot these days, in a swing state, even a small effect may be a significant effect. And as you say, the Harris-Walz campaign is definitely tying to tie Trump to the candidate he recently called “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
But no, I’m not predicting a Harris win in North Carolina. I’m hoping for it, and I don’t think it’s impossible, but I’m not predicting it.
CNN: Trump presses to change Nebraska election law, in fight for a sole electoral vote
Given those two possibilities my guess would be UV toxicity. Almost no one in U.S. politics wants to admit COVID is a problem anymore, but politicians who make a lot of public appearances have to take into account that the U.S. is at what seems to be the tail end of a pretty sizeable COVID wave. The least intrusive way to deal with this is a combination of UV light and good ventilation. My guess is some kind of screw up (or cheapskatedness) led to the installation of UV lights other than the 222 nm wavelength lamps that seem to be the safest for human exposure.
The big question is whether or not Trump himself will start to exhibit symptoms. Given the way political campaigns are loath to reveal any medical issues the candidate is having this could be difficult information to obtain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwz4uC4Ub6w
At 20 mins this is a fairly big chunk, but - perhaps it will be useful to someone here either personally or as a resource to pass on, so here it is.
I think this demonstrates that Nebraskans, generally speaking, are more committed to their state's idiosyncrasies (like the unicameral legislature and sub-dividing their electoral votes) than they are to partisan loyalty.
Norah O’Donnell looks like she’s wearing a suit she borrowed from her older sister, didn’t have time to properly put on makeup, and is sitting at a desk intended for a middle schooler under 1990s office halogen lights.
He was asked about his false claims that he was in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square, and his response was essentially "I used to ride my bike with my friends growing up in rural Nebraska!"
Being petty, are we?
Extreme legalized violence by agents of the state. Yes, I'd noticed. For those want to see for themselves the video is here on Xitter. I think the on-screen caption "Trump Proposes Kristallnacht" really captures the spirit of the thing.
I'm not sure if it's charitable or otherwise to suggest he probably never heard of Kristallnacht and was actually salivating over Duterte's Philippines.
Not sure but probably accurate.
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/02/nx-s1-5135675/jd-vance-tim-walz-vp-debate-fact-check
https://x.com/cbouzy/status/1842974782125711626
Some context.
Whoever wins Pennsylvania, probably wins the electoral college.
There is some analysis floating around that polling - which shows it is too close to call in the states that will make the difference - is probably underestimating support for Kamala Harris because the way they model the likelihood of voting is wrong. If that analysis is correct, Harris wins.
Early voting returns do not tell you who people have voted for. The ballots remained sealed until the polls have closed. In most states the in-person ballots are counted first. This was the reason for the Red Mirage* in 2020 when postal ballots were much more common than normal due to Covid. However, what is published is whether people asking for, and returning the ballots, are registered Republicans, Democrats or neither. This is the data being analysed here. Polling suggests that registered Democrats are almost all voting Harris but a relatively high percentage of Republicans will not vote Trump. We can leave that aside for now. Unless there is a large number of Democrats who are going to vote Trump, then it does not matter for our purposes here.
What's the conclusion of this data? Well, by comparing the returns to previous numbers, you can estimate turnout and proportions of the vote. It is speculative, but the people who do it have a pretty good track record.
This data shows Harris winning Pennsylvania.
If that happens then Harris will be the next president.
I am counting no chickens but this is hopeful so far.
AFZ
*Early vote counts showed Trump leading in many key counts but this was then superseded as the postal votes were added to the counts. Jack Smith's most recent Motion in the Jan 6th case shows he has extensive evidence that Trump knew that he was likely to lose and that this effect would be a really good way to pretend he actually won and that it was fraud.
Good line.
While I'm not convinced that the Trump Bible will have any measurable impact on voting-plans going into November, I like when it gets mentioned in the news, if only because I know how much the theologically literate among the xtian theocrats must think it's idolatrous crap, but are still expected to keep their mouths shut about it.
A nifty Republican reply might be to ask where the ELCA has its bibles manufactured(*), though the subtly of that would probably be lost on the party's paid propagandists, and certainly the party faithful.
(*) A question I have no idea about.
The ELCA Stidy Bible was released by Augsburg Fortress, which is headquartered in Minneapolis MN. That is what it says on its cover page.
But that is not the point. The point is Trump has long decried how China steals American jobs. Here he is selling a Bless the USA Bible published in China. In other words, he outsourced American jobs to where? I rest my case.
If he is able to sell all the Bibles, he will have grossed $7 mil. He is a grifter extraordinaire.
Well, yeah. But where are they manufactured?
Agreed. But I do think that the economic-hypocrisy issue is really hitching a ride with the goofy-religion issue, the latter being much the more media-friendly talking-point.
If it were revealed that Trump was outsourcing the butter supply at Mar-A-Lago cafes, I doubt anyone would think it worth tweeting about.
As Tim Walz commented yesterday, the Made In China mark is on the inside, which is the part of the Bible Trump never looks at.
There was a spate of news stories in 2019 when it was discovered that Trump employed a lot of undocumented workers. Not everything has to have a religious angle.
I was asking about ECLA bibles.
Sure. But how many anti-immigration voters decided to abandon Trump because of those stories?
I'd say it definitely helps. Trump's personal corruption and hypocrisy have been on open display since he entered politics in the mid-2010s, and at this point anyone who isn't already repelled by it isn't going to be moved by one more story about undocumented workers, outsourcing, fraud, insulting soldiers, pilfering documents, abuse of women etc. And the relevant legal cases aren't gonna come to fruition until after the election.
But the 2022 midterms are known as "Roevember" for a reason. Dobbs finally jolted zonked-out suburbanites into realizing that the Republicans are deadly serious about eliminating reproductive rights, and it is by far the best issue the Democrats have for moving swing-voters.
So, the bibles are a good issue to tweet about, because they remind people of Trump's alliance with the religious right, and hence his pivotal role in overturning Roe.