Possibly. I wonder about the Trump effect and what happens if Ford gets elected again between now and the next election. But it’s really not looking promising right now. I would happily give Trudeau a minority if he promises to ride off into the sunset the day after the election*, but as I say that’s not looking like a happening thing.**
*not nearly as generous an offer as I made in these parts in 2021, where I offered him a majority if he would ride off into the sunset in three years… in retrospect, too generous an allowance.
**I would add “at the moment” but I realize I’ve already used that phrase way too many times today.
Mrs Simon may have to keep her agenda clea this week, if only to swear in new ministers.
I wonder if this will not be much more serious for him than Judy Raybold-Wilson's departure. While Mrs Freeland was not everybody's cup of tea, she was known to be able and well-read.
I can't imagine wanting to be embroiled in an election campaign prior to Jan 20. JWR wore the mantle of not being a team player. I think CF has been taking a few for the Team ( It appears more and more like the team consists of JT alone.)
Mixed reviews, so far. There's some optimism, for sure, but also a lot of caution. I hear comments like "Any deal that Quebec would agree to can't be good for us," and "Haven't we learned our lesson about signing agreements without thoroughly looking at all the possible downsides?" Some feeling that the government is anxious to rush it through without adequate public consultation.
Personally, I feel like I don't know enough about the deal yet to pass judgement on it, though it literally cannot be worse than what we have, and, as is probably true in many places right now, anything that promises to bring some additional revenue into the provincial coffers would be welcome news. The question being of course will it actually deliver what's promised.
Is it possible that Freeland's resignation is going to be the final domino that makes the whole thing fall down? Does anyone have any insight into what Trudeau hopes to achieve by clinging to leadership at this point?
The only thing I can imagine is that he is trying to avoid a Kim Campbell scenario for the Libs. Every other hypothesis makes him come out looking very, very arrogant and delusional.
Is it possible that Freeland's resignation is going to be the final domino that makes the whole thing fall down? Does anyone have any insight into what Trudeau hopes to achieve by clinging to leadership at this point?
I'm wondering if he thinks Canada is facing a semi-existential crisis(*) with the jingoistic clown show about to take power in DC, and he thinks that he's the best person to protect our interests.
(Or he could just be a narcissistic jerk who loves being in power for its own sake.)
(*) The threatened invasion is pretty far-fetched, but I'm picturing something like "Canadian industry smashed to shit by lunatic tariffs, and mobs of screaming Americans at the border holding up RFK jr tweets saying they have the right to enter Canada unvaccinated."
At this point "arrogant and delusional" is getting my vote. Although I've never been a Liberal voter, I've generally been as happy as Trudeau's leadership since 2015 as I would be with any other Liberal PM, I think he's done a decent job, but this refusal to step down in the face of so much opposition and a rising tide of pro-conservative feeling is (in my mind) wiping out much of the good he's done in the last 9 years.
The only thing I can imagine is that he is trying to avoid a Kim Campbell scenario for the Libs. Every other hypothesis makes him come out looking very, very arrogant and delusional.
I would say Trudeau has caught Bob Rae-itis. To wit, he is clinging to power in the vain hope his pills will change as Bib Rae did as Premier of Ontario.
The Fall Economic Statement was tabled in the House without the customary speech. I am speechless. I can't remember such an own-goal on a carefully stage-managed event like this one.
The only thing I can imagine is that he is trying to avoid a Kim Campbell scenario for the Libs. Every other hypothesis makes him come out looking very, very arrogant and delusional.
I can well imagine that Trudeau might feel an obligation to hang on to the end, rather than letting someone else take the fall for his government’s unpopularity. But the way he’s doing it seems guaranteed to inflict the maximum damage on his party and his government. At some point the likelihood you’re not going to get re-elected should be taken as a free pass to do the right thing, but Trudeau doesn’t seem to be getting that advice. Or if he is, he’s not taking it. I would guess that the Liberals’ only chance of getting re-elected at this point (a slim one mind you) is not to look like they’re working too hard to get re-elected.
I sometimes wonder about the minority government dynamics of Liberal government decision-making in the last few years, though despite their public position on the GST issue I would be surprised if the NDP actually pressured JT to do this.
1990s/2000s political hack turned columnist Warren Kinsella has a piece arguing that out of all mentioned contenders at the provincial and federal levels, Doug Ford has had the best reply(*) to Trump's autarkic demagoguery.
(*) A pretty stark "You hurt us, Donald, we'll hurt you back." In contrast to Justin's passive-aggressive commentary on the defeat of feminism on November 7th and Danielle Smith and Francois Legault's "Yes Sir, how high?" pandering. Kinsella compares Smith to Neville Chamberlain.
Donald Trump has entered the chat, commenting on affairs in the "Great State of Canada" and its "Governor" Justin Trudeau. Not naming Freeland in his post because presumably typing the name of a powerful and defiant woman might make her appear? Or because he's working on a nickname for her and hasn't finished workshopping ideas yet?
While I was in general support of the posties (or, more precisely, not in support of the Corporation), I was not displeased to see the arrival this morning of my TLS and New Yorker.
I thought he might take a leaf from Putin's book and mention her nazi grand-dad. (Which is true, but almost always brought up for cynical pro-Russian apologetic purposes.)
I’m not sure what would need to happen on the American side to make this happen. If Trump needs the approval of Congress then I doubt that would be forthcoming. If it’s something he can do all by himself then all bets are off. In the meantime aggressive lobbying is happening and trying to address the border issues that Trump claims are the source of the problem.
It’s almost certainly a lose-lose-lose scenario for all concerned if Trump actually does this but of course that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Like everyone else we are waiting for the penny to drop in January.
Sorry, just tuned in because it was on the Beeb. What can Canada do to prevent 25% tariffs?
Doug Ford, the right-wing premier of Ontario, has threatened to cut off energy exports to the US, and I've seen electricity specifically mentioned.
Personally, Ford strikes me as the kinda guy who wouldn't hesitate to cause pain and agony to millions of men, women and children if he thought it would help his province, and through that his political career. But the media are quoting economists who say that the balance of power in such a war would NOT be in Canada's favour.
For myself, apart from my earlier offered suggestion of a nuclear striptease(*), I wonder how feasible it would be, at some point before(as a threat) or after(as punishment), to announce that American tourists trying to enter Canada might experience a few minutes of possibly unexplained delays for a day or two. Just five minutes, here and there, y'understand.
(And, yes, this could very well provoke a rebuttal in kind from the doodles, but I think Canada might have the psychological advantage of the first-strike here. Due to the novelty of the move, it could hit the American media a little harder than the retaliation would hit at Canada.
I also think alot depends on what you think Trump's motivation here is, whether he is using the THREAT of tariffs to get concessions on border issues, OR whether that's all just a ruse and he's gonna impose them no matter what, as part of his plan to bring about an everlasting jubilee for the American taxpayer.)
Maybe not, because in a striptease, the target of the striptease wants it to continue, not stop. But you know what I mean. Make progressively more tangible moves toward acquiring the bomb, to be de-escalated after de-escalations from DC on the tariff front.
In other news, Lawrence Martin predicts that Trudeau is toast in foreseeable future and that the viable candidates to replace him are Domenic Leblanc and Mark Carney.
I have great respect for Carney but (as @stetson says upthread) I think trying to parachute him in as Liberal leader in present circumstances could be disastrous. I don’t know very much about Leblanc, other than that he is personally close to Trudeau, but I can conceive that he might just have the personality to be able to step in at this late stage and run a campaign that is if not victorious at least not disastrous.
I’m not sure what would need to happen on the American side to make this happen. If Trump needs the approval of Congress then I doubt that would be forthcoming. If it’s something he can do all by himself then all bets are off. In the meantime aggressive lobbying is happening and trying to address the border issues that Trump claims are the source of the problem.
Ford has been making the rounds in American media, I believe. I've never paid much attention to his oratory, and that disinterest continues in the current situation, but I'd imagine he comes off as someone Middle America might perceive with a certain measure of apprehension. He kinda has the bearings and mannerisms of a mobbed-up undertaker from small-town Ontario.
Any Liberal replacement leader at this stage is in for a Kim Campbell experience.
I remember her concession speech. She defiantly announced that the party of Sir John A. Macdonald and Sir George-Etienne Cartier would live on as a force in Canada.
Mind you, he has no power to have direct talks with a foreign government but constitutional niceties have never stopped Canadian politicians before.
I believe Canadian premiers or at least their minions do meet-and-greets in the USA on a regular basis(see Mike Dukakis defying Mrs. D by allowing a certain eminent Quebecker to smoke at the Mansion). So as long as Ford more-or-less confined himself to Ontario-jurisdictioned threats, I think he should be okay.
Honestly, I'm not joking when I say that in a hypothetical vote for a position called Canadian Counterbully, between Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford, I'd vote for Doug.
I mean, I just don't see how publically analyzing misogyny as a factor in the 2024 election is supposed to make Canada look tough.
(And, no, not because feminist analyses make us look girlish and weak, but because no one considers it a news flash if Trump gets into another shouting match with a foreign leader. And his alliance with the gamergate boys is already part of why his liberal detractors hate him, and conservatives mostly consider it a plus.)
Comments
*not nearly as generous an offer as I made in these parts in 2021, where I offered him a majority if he would ride off into the sunset in three years… in retrospect, too generous an allowance.
**I would add “at the moment” but I realize I’ve already used that phrase way too many times today.
In other news Freeland has resigned outright from Cabinet, apparently declining the offer of a different Cabinet post.
Is JT nuts?
I wonder if this will not be much more serious for him than Judy Raybold-Wilson's departure. While Mrs Freeland was not everybody's cup of tea, she was known to be able and well-read.
T'would have to be on the date that only comes every four years.
BtW Trudy how is the Churchill Falls deal being received in Newfiundland and Labrador?
Personally, I feel like I don't know enough about the deal yet to pass judgement on it, though it literally cannot be worse than what we have, and, as is probably true in many places right now, anything that promises to bring some additional revenue into the provincial coffers would be welcome news. The question being of course will it actually deliver what's promised.
*A Canadian metaphor for a Prime Minister resigning from public life, pioneer by Trudeau Sr.
I'm wondering if he thinks Canada is facing a semi-existential crisis(*) with the jingoistic clown show about to take power in DC, and he thinks that he's the best person to protect our interests.
(Or he could just be a narcissistic jerk who loves being in power for its own sake.)
(*) The threatened invasion is pretty far-fetched, but I'm picturing something like "Canadian industry smashed to shit by lunatic tariffs, and mobs of screaming Americans at the border holding up RFK jr tweets saying they have the right to enter Canada unvaccinated."
I would say Trudeau has caught Bob Rae-itis. To wit, he is clinging to power in the vain hope his pills will change as Bib Rae did as Premier of Ontario.
I can well imagine that Trudeau might feel an obligation to hang on to the end, rather than letting someone else take the fall for his government’s unpopularity. But the way he’s doing it seems guaranteed to inflict the maximum damage on his party and his government. At some point the likelihood you’re not going to get re-elected should be taken as a free pass to do the right thing, but Trudeau doesn’t seem to be getting that advice. Or if he is, he’s not taking it. I would guess that the Liberals’ only chance of getting re-elected at this point (a slim one mind you) is not to look like they’re working too hard to get re-elected.
I sometimes wonder about the minority government dynamics of Liberal government decision-making in the last few years, though despite their public position on the GST issue I would be surprised if the NDP actually pressured JT to do this.
(*) A pretty stark "You hurt us, Donald, we'll hurt you back." In contrast to Justin's passive-aggressive commentary on the defeat of feminism on November 7th and Danielle Smith and Francois Legault's "Yes Sir, how high?" pandering. Kinsella compares Smith to Neville Chamberlain.
Quoting and editing to fix the link. Sounds like a wait-and-see scenario.
I thought he might take a leaf from Putin's book and mention her nazi grand-dad. (Which is true, but almost always brought up for cynical pro-Russian apologetic purposes.)
It’s almost certainly a lose-lose-lose scenario for all concerned if Trump actually does this but of course that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Like everyone else we are waiting for the penny to drop in January.
Doug Ford, the right-wing premier of Ontario, has threatened to cut off energy exports to the US, and I've seen electricity specifically mentioned.
Personally, Ford strikes me as the kinda guy who wouldn't hesitate to cause pain and agony to millions of men, women and children if he thought it would help his province, and through that his political career. But the media are quoting economists who say that the balance of power in such a war would NOT be in Canada's favour.
For myself, apart from my earlier offered suggestion of a nuclear striptease(*), I wonder how feasible it would be, at some point before(as a threat) or after(as punishment), to announce that American tourists trying to enter Canada might experience a few minutes of possibly unexplained delays for a day or two. Just five minutes, here and there, y'understand.
(And, yes, this could very well provoke a rebuttal in kind from the doodles, but I think Canada might have the psychological advantage of the first-strike here. Due to the novelty of the move, it could hit the American media a little harder than the retaliation would hit at Canada.
I also think alot depends on what you think Trump's motivation here is, whether he is using the THREAT of tariffs to get concessions on border issues, OR whether that's all just a ruse and he's gonna impose them no matter what, as part of his plan to bring about an everlasting jubilee for the American taxpayer.)
Maybe not, because in a striptease, the target of the striptease wants it to continue, not stop. But you know what I mean. Make progressively more tangible moves toward acquiring the bomb, to be de-escalated after de-escalations from DC on the tariff front.
I have great respect for Carney but (as @stetson says upthread) I think trying to parachute him in as Liberal leader in present circumstances could be disastrous. I don’t know very much about Leblanc, other than that he is personally close to Trudeau, but I can conceive that he might just have the personality to be able to step in at this late stage and run a campaign that is if not victorious at least not disastrous.
Ford has been making the rounds in American media, I believe. I've never paid much attention to his oratory, and that disinterest continues in the current situation, but I'd imagine he comes off as someone Middle America might perceive with a certain measure of apprehension. He kinda has the bearings and mannerisms of a mobbed-up undertaker from small-town Ontario.
Mind you, he has no power to have direct talks with a foreign government but constitutional niceties have never stopped Canadian politicians before.
I remember her concession speech. She defiantly announced that the party of Sir John A. Macdonald and Sir George-Etienne Cartier would live on as a force in Canada.
I believe Canadian premiers or at least their minions do meet-and-greets in the USA on a regular basis(see Mike Dukakis defying Mrs. D by allowing a certain eminent Quebecker to smoke at the Mansion). So as long as Ford more-or-less confined himself to Ontario-jurisdictioned threats, I think he should be okay.
Honestly, I'm not joking when I say that in a hypothetical vote for a position called Canadian Counterbully, between Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford, I'd vote for Doug.
(And, no, not because feminist analyses make us look girlish and weak, but because no one considers it a news flash if Trump gets into another shouting match with a foreign leader. And his alliance with the gamergate boys is already part of why his liberal detractors hate him, and conservatives mostly consider it a plus.)
Basically what Ford is saying, as far as I can tell.