Yep. Never thought I would agree with Doug Ford in a million lifetimes. The Munich Agreement taught us the "value" of appeasement.
At the end of the day, ya gotta fight fire with fire. My only concern is whether Canada is actually positioned to win the conflict. Presumably, the Americans have stuff we need as well.
The way it was explained to me was that cutting off electricity exports could hurt us in the long term if we’re suddenly no longer considered a reliable supplier. It works better as an “all options are on table” statement rather than as a specific threat we might have to follow up on.
I think a lot of anxiety on both sides of border (and elsewhere) is that Trump is talking about doing all sorts of things despite the fact he probably can’t do all of them. So at the moment it’s a multi-headed hydra and all we can responsibly do is game out various scenarios. Which means trying to stay calm at a time when staying calm is not an easy thing to do. Especially with our own little tire fire burning in Ottawa at the moment.
The way it was explained to me was that cutting off electricity exports could hurt us in the long term if we’re suddenly no longer considered a reliable supplier.
Well, I think it might make a difference in global perceptions if the electricity blockade was in response to the president arbitrarily imposing crippling tariffs on our economy. Other trade-partners(and indeed, the more rational section of American politics) would probably understand that we we were responding to unique circumstances, and didn't just wake up one morning and say "Hey, let's blackout a huge chunk of the USA just for the laughs."
So I personally wouldn't worry much about it damaging our trading relationships. More that the USA would respond with more
It works better as an “all options are on table” statement rather than as a specific threat we might have to follow up on.
Again, this gets back to whether the strategy is used before or after the implementation of any tariffs. If it's after, then it really can't just be an all-options-on-the-table sorta threat. We'd have to actually follow through with some modicum of action to show we're not just playing games.
I’m still only seeing that as a possibility in our media but the NDP has just said it will vote no confidence in the government, which likely means the end of this government regardless.
Yes, the NDP said the woud vote no confidence and will bring forth a motion on the topic on their next Opposition day. Parliament has risen and won't resume until January 27th. The Liberals could prorogue but they have to present a budget this spring which means they have to meet the House by April.
One of three things willl happen:
1) The Liberals decide to cling on for dear life and defer any opposition days, thus pushing the onus of non-confidence onto the budget cycle.
2) The Liberals take the bold route and decide to schedule January 27th or 28th as an Opposition Day and face the music.
3) Truedeau simply visits the Governor General and requests a dissolution.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they decided to delay, at least long enough to figure out whether JT is going to stay on as leader and if not him, who. This week has really been the perfect storm as far they are concerned.
The problem is the budget. There really isn't a way to defer the budget indefinitely so even if JT takes a 'walk in the snow' there isn't time to have a Liberal leadership race. The Liberals don't control the timeline in a minority parliament.
It would definitely be an Express leadership race….
I think that the quickest Liberal leadership race was in 1979, when after the Clark government lost the confidence of the House, it took about two weeks for the National Liberal Commission to meet and re-elect PE Trudeau as leader, after his resignation following the May 19779 election.
Currently the National Board of Directors determines the rules of the race so they could simply use the model of the 2013 electronic leadership vote, but with a compressed timeline. The 2013 campaign began on April 14 with the vote held on November 14--a spending limit of $950k at the time. The Board selects an interim leader in consultation with the parliamentary caucus-- If Justin T steps down from the PM-ship (not procedurally inevitable), this interim leader would likely be selected as Prime Minister, presumably with the Aberdeen convention (viz., no major appointments).
Might I ask again what Canada has to do to prevent 25% tariffs? Up against an only neighbour with an order of magnitude more of everything? Except electricity? In a trade war with no winners, who loses most?
I think we’ve answered this upthread as well as we can. There is no hat with a rabbit in it sitting around waiting to be deployed. There are things that are being done to address the presenting issues that the incoming administration is complaining about. There is lobbying being done to make the point this isn’t in anyone’s interest. But if Trump is hellbent on a trade war there will be a trade war, with consequences for everyone. What that will look like at the moment is anyone’s guess.
As I say there are specific complaints the administration has made that the Canadian government is trying to address - namely about border control issues.
My sardonic & militantly environmentalist neighbour suggested that, if the trade deficit truly bothered Mr Trump, all he had to do was radically discourage the use of fossil fuels, as our oil imports were the principle cause of the deficit. A brilliant notion, I agreed....
My sardonic & militantly environmentalist neighbour suggested that, if the trade deficit truly bothered Mr Trump, all he had to do was radically discourage the use of fossil fuels, as our oil imports were the principle cause of the deficit. A brilliant notion, I agreed....
Clever. Satire never, ever works does it. Apart from comforting the disenfranchised 'intelligentsia'. Of whatever political persuasion in opposition. Which is usually liberal-left. It's the false dichotomy of that or cry I suppose.
How does Trump get political capital by taxing American motorists? Not that at least half won't understand that the 25% tariff is on them, distracted by the reduction in federal income tax and all federal expenses apart from defence, especially on the borders, that Canada doesn't pay a cent. There, I've answered my own question.
What can Canada do to avoid the US tariff? Well, you can become the 51st state.
I think, if there is anything Canadians are in universal agreement on, it is you don't want to become the 51st state.
Something tells me Trump does not know how large Canada is, nor that you have 10 provinces. Now, if in the very unlikely event, each of the provinces became states in the US together, think what that can do to our electoral college, to say nothing about there being no room to sit 20 more Senators and X number of additional congressmen.
Besides, we Americans need to have some place to go if ever our country institutes the draft for an unpopular war again.
My level of enthusiasm for discussing Canada becoming a 51st state on this thread is not materially higher than my enthusiasm for Canada actually becoming a 51st state. Which is to say subterranean in both cases.
In other news, the Globe is reporting that Trudeau is going to spend Christmas taking some probably well needed vacation before making any decision about whether to step down. Understandable but obviously he’s going to need to make a decision soon. The Globe also reports that Freeland is considering a run for the leadership. My gut says that’s probably not a good idea right now for her long term political prospects but my gut may be wrong. But I also sense that Trudeau’s* attempt to be clever over the last two weeks may have left the Liberals without any good options in the short term.
(*not to absolve Trudeau of responsibility but I sense some really bad advice from his political staff…)
Danielle Smith is going to DC, and thinks she can dissuade Trump from imposing tariffs. I'm guessing she thinks that as Trump's closest ideological comrade among the major players in Canada, she'll have some sorta in with him.
FWIW, reactionary lunacy aside, Smith is a good politician, and I wouldn't wanna underestimate her powers of persuasion. But I still think Doug Ford's approach has so far been the best bet.
Making Canada the 51st state, confiscating the Panama Canal -- this is all on the same level as Trump wanting to buy Greenland. He makes outlandish suggestions about international affairs that can later be written off as jokes so that those who don't support Trump can be chided for having a poor sense of humour. The joke-defense is necessary for a man who is, incredibly, about to be leader of one of the world's most powerful nations for the second time, and who has only the vaguest grasp on things like "the sovereignty of other nations" and "how the world actually works," so just says whatever pops into his head that he thinks might grab the headlines for a day or two.
The tariffs are a real issue that has to be addressed. The "51st state" nonsense should be ignored as the meaningless rage-bait that it is.
Oh I’m sure we’d ask nicely first, and if anyone objected we would withdraw and apologize profusely.
I'm sure there's a joke about the fact that unless I'm missing something pop culture's most famous Canadian is Wolverine, from the X-Men, who is not a character known for apologising profusely.
Oh I’m sure we’d ask nicely first, and if anyone objected we would withdraw and apologize profusely.
I'm sure there's a joke about the fact that unless I'm missing something pop culture's most famous Canadian is Wolverine, from the X-Men, who is not a character known for apologising profusely.
Odd thing is that Wolverine is barely on my radar as a Canadian pop culture figure.
A Palestinian acquaintance, now resident in Ottawa to write an incomprehensible political science thesis, suggests that Mr Trump makes an hereditary monarchy a reasonable alternative. However, I suspect that he prefers an Ottoman sultan ruling from El Paso to Ellesmere Island-- at least government documents would be more artistic and calligraphers would find employment.
In any case, Mr Trump's attention span is short and I see he is already focussing on Panama. Meanwhile I am rereading a book on the battle of Crysler's Farm to see what strategies our local militia regiments should employ.
"Happy" memory seems like a stretch for G3, to be honest.
As unelected hereditary rulers go, George III was one of the better ones apparently. The problem with his US policy according to the current generation of historians seems to have been that his semi-elected ministers were more hawkish than he was and he didn't have enough power to overrule them.
As far as I can tell from Google the creators of Wolverine et al. are American - so it may be I suppose that pop culture’s most famous Canadian is not actually a product of Canadian pop culture.
And, at least as far as the movies claimed, he's from Northern Alberta, which is not quite as yee-haw as eg. the Mormon Belt on the border.
As far as I can tell from Google the creators of Wolverine et al. are American - so it may be I suppose that pop culture’s most famous Canadian is not actually a product of Canadian pop culture.
Other superheroes specified as Canadian are Marvel's Vindicator, who appears with Wolverine and Pierre Trudeau in a late 1970s number, and, from the same era, Comely Comics' Captain Canuck.
Vindicator and Canuck resembled each other somewhat, both with skin-tight uniforms modeled on the Canadian flag. Comely is a small, Canadian outfit, run by Mormon converts(*), which seems to revive CC every coupla decades or so.
(*) In the one Captain Canuck comic I read, a villain, upon being apprehended for some crime intended to pay off gambling debts, laments "Why did I ever start gambling? Casinos, poker, bingo..."
So, will the Liberal government fall in late January/early February on a no confidence vote like the NDP promised? Will Trudeau prorogue Parliament to extend his term? Will the Liberals hold a leadership convention to find Trudeau's replacement?
Will the government implement tax changes that have not even been introduced in the House, even knowing that if they were, they would not be passed? I understand that CRA plans to implement the increased capital gains inclusion rate, and now the Liberals are talking about extending the deadline for charitable contributions beyond December 31. Both of these require legislative changes. If they are implemented, that is more proof of contempt of Parliament by the Liberals under Trudeau .
I spent half an hour this morning doing charitable donations before the deadline-- to extend the deadline would rob Canadians of the frisson of calculating what generosity they can afford with the typing required in time.
A long time ago I became confused with the budgetary process when they moved to celebrating financial statements. There is much to be said for Victorian form for budgets.
You mean where the Finance Minister/Chancellor of the Exchequer is permitted by custom to partake of a glass of sherry while delivering the Budget to the House?
To close out 2024, I think that this would be a nice idea-- sadly there is no traditionally-produced Canadian sherry yet (I exclude London and Westminster, so reminiscent of Sunday afternoons in liberal Protestant drawing rooms in eastern Ontario) so the Minister of Finance would have to resort to an import or, if they be sworn to Canadian products, there is a reasonable if eccentric cider sherry, Long Story, produced by Revel.
Traditionalism is a reinforcing indicator of identity and we should not eschew such measures without careful thought. And if we need to invent a tradition, we've done that before.
There is actually a fermented maple syrup drink from Quebec that tastes not unlike a medium-sweet dark Spanish Sherry. Mind you the real thing is better and about half the price.
Comments
At the end of the day, ya gotta fight fire with fire. My only concern is whether Canada is actually positioned to win the conflict. Presumably, the Americans have stuff we need as well.
I think a lot of anxiety on both sides of border (and elsewhere) is that Trump is talking about doing all sorts of things despite the fact he probably can’t do all of them. So at the moment it’s a multi-headed hydra and all we can responsibly do is game out various scenarios. Which means trying to stay calm at a time when staying calm is not an easy thing to do. Especially with our own little tire fire burning in Ottawa at the moment.
Well, I think it might make a difference in global perceptions if the electricity blockade was in response to the president arbitrarily imposing crippling tariffs on our economy. Other trade-partners(and indeed, the more rational section of American politics) would probably understand that we we were responding to unique circumstances, and didn't just wake up one morning and say "Hey, let's blackout a huge chunk of the USA just for the laughs."
So I personally wouldn't worry much about it damaging our trading relationships. More that the USA would respond with more
Again, this gets back to whether the strategy is used before or after the implementation of any tariffs. If it's after, then it really can't just be an all-options-on-the-table sorta threat. We'd have to actually follow through with some modicum of action to show we're not just playing games.
One of three things willl happen:
1) The Liberals decide to cling on for dear life and defer any opposition days, thus pushing the onus of non-confidence onto the budget cycle.
2) The Liberals take the bold route and decide to schedule January 27th or 28th as an Opposition Day and face the music.
3) Truedeau simply visits the Governor General and requests a dissolution.
I would not rely on youtube for news unless you are looking at youtubes from news outlets such as CBC, CTV, Radio-Canada.
I think that the quickest Liberal leadership race was in 1979, when after the Clark government lost the confidence of the House, it took about two weeks for the National Liberal Commission to meet and re-elect PE Trudeau as leader, after his resignation following the May 19779 election.
Currently the National Board of Directors determines the rules of the race so they could simply use the model of the 2013 electronic leadership vote, but with a compressed timeline. The 2013 campaign began on April 14 with the vote held on November 14--a spending limit of $950k at the time. The Board selects an interim leader in consultation with the parliamentary caucus-- If Justin T steps down from the PM-ship (not procedurally inevitable), this interim leader would likely be selected as Prime Minister, presumably with the Aberdeen convention (viz., no major appointments).
1) 3% Digital Services Tax that hits US Amazon & Google.
2) 1.29% of GDP on defence, going up 0.1% pa to 2% at present.
3) Roxham Road asylum seekers.
75% of Canada's exports cross the same border. The US has a $41 bn trade deficit with Canada. In the near trillion dollar trade, the biggest on Earth.
Hmmmm.
Bring it on eh?
Clever. Satire never, ever works does it. Apart from comforting the disenfranchised 'intelligentsia'. Of whatever political persuasion in opposition. Which is usually liberal-left. It's the false dichotomy of that or cry I suppose.
How does Trump get political capital by taxing American motorists? Not that at least half won't understand that the 25% tariff is on them, distracted by the reduction in federal income tax and all federal expenses apart from defence, especially on the borders, that Canada doesn't pay a cent. There, I've answered my own question.
I think, if there is anything Canadians are in universal agreement on, it is you don't want to become the 51st state.
Something tells me Trump does not know how large Canada is, nor that you have 10 provinces. Now, if in the very unlikely event, each of the provinces became states in the US together, think what that can do to our electoral college, to say nothing about there being no room to sit 20 more Senators and X number of additional congressmen.
Besides, we Americans need to have some place to go if ever our country institutes the draft for an unpopular war again.
In other news, the Globe is reporting that Trudeau is going to spend Christmas taking some probably well needed vacation before making any decision about whether to step down. Understandable but obviously he’s going to need to make a decision soon. The Globe also reports that Freeland is considering a run for the leadership. My gut says that’s probably not a good idea right now for her long term political prospects but my gut may be wrong. But I also sense that Trudeau’s* attempt to be clever over the last two weeks may have left the Liberals without any good options in the short term.
(*not to absolve Trudeau of responsibility but I sense some really bad advice from his political staff…)
FWIW, reactionary lunacy aside, Smith is a good politician, and I wouldn't wanna underestimate her powers of persuasion. But I still think Doug Ford's approach has so far been the best bet.
The tariffs are a real issue that has to be addressed. The "51st state" nonsense should be ignored as the meaningless rage-bait that it is.
However, the last time BNA and the US fought, we torched the White House.
(probably not, really)
Odd thing is that Wolverine is barely on my radar as a Canadian pop culture figure.
There might be a Heaven thread in this somehow.
"Happy" memory seems like a stretch for G3, to be honest.
Hasenpfeffer!
How dare you besmirch the memory of Farmer George!
In any case, Mr Trump's attention span is short and I see he is already focussing on Panama. Meanwhile I am rereading a book on the battle of Crysler's Farm to see what strategies our local militia regiments should employ.
My Alberta relatives would beg to differ…
As far as I can tell from Google the creators of Wolverine et al. are American - so it may be I suppose that pop culture’s most famous Canadian is not actually a product of Canadian pop culture.
The Trudeau government failed to introduce a budget in 2020.
And, at least as far as the movies claimed, he's from Northern Alberta, which is not quite as yee-haw as eg. the Mormon Belt on the border.
Other superheroes specified as Canadian are Marvel's Vindicator, who appears with Wolverine and Pierre Trudeau in a late 1970s number, and, from the same era, Comely Comics' Captain Canuck.
Vindicator and Canuck resembled each other somewhat, both with skin-tight uniforms modeled on the Canadian flag. Comely is a small, Canadian outfit, run by Mormon converts(*), which seems to revive CC every coupla decades or so.
(*) In the one Captain Canuck comic I read, a villain, upon being apprehended for some crime intended to pay off gambling debts, laments "Why did I ever start gambling? Casinos, poker, bingo..."
Will the government implement tax changes that have not even been introduced in the House, even knowing that if they were, they would not be passed? I understand that CRA plans to implement the increased capital gains inclusion rate, and now the Liberals are talking about extending the deadline for charitable contributions beyond December 31. Both of these require legislative changes. If they are implemented, that is more proof of contempt of Parliament by the Liberals under Trudeau .
A long time ago I became confused with the budgetary process when they moved to celebrating financial statements. There is much to be said for Victorian form for budgets.
Traditionalism is a reinforcing indicator of identity and we should not eschew such measures without careful thought. And if we need to invent a tradition, we've done that before.
A new thread has already been opened for 2025, so I'm closing this one.
Hostly beret off
la vie en rouge, Purgatory host