Meanwhile there are people with pneumonia being sent home from hospital because they're not ill enough to test.
I have no confidence in my government to do anything but the wrong thing. Fortunately, they have mostly abrogated responsibility to people who actually have a clue.
I have no confidence in my government to do anything but the wrong thing. Fortunately, they have mostly abrogated responsibility to people who actually have a clue.
Send everyone you don't trust to go proclaim their loyalty to the PM with lots of shaking hands and hugging.
The other Dominic, Raab, is Deputy PM, apparently. Heaven help us. And we've missed out on the European scheme for bulk-purchasing ventilators, for wholly unconvincing reasons. Presumably someone 'didn't quite understand the significance of this'.
Verbatim from a friend on the front line 26 minutes after: 'Simce midnight [a big provincial city hospital] has had 325 patients in, this morning 3 were in isolation with big yellow tags on their cubicles[,] when I left at 7pm nearly every xubicle out of 47 had a yellow tag. Been a frantic day[,] tempers flared. Not enough beds or docs or cleaners.'
US numbers increase throughout the day rather than as a result of a single daily announcement. Total diagnosed cases already top 100,000, the highest in the world and both the numbers of deaths and those critically ill are rising sharply.
The UK had its highest death total today and the numbers who died exceeded the number reported as critically ill yesterday.
Italy had its highest ever death toll and that despite being in lockdown for 14 days now.
Personally, I see precious little evidence of peaking, more evidence of continued rapid climbing. Particularly in the countries worst affected.
US numbers increase throughout the day rather than as a result of a single daily announcement. Total diagnosed cases already top 100,000, the highest in the world and both the numbers of deaths and those critically ill are rising sharply.
The UK had its highest death total today and the numbers who died exceeded the number reported as critically ill yesterday.
Italy had its highest ever death toll and that despite being in lockdown for 14 days now.
Personally, I see precious little evidence of peaking, more evidence of continued rapid climbing. Particularly in the countries worst affected.
China and South Korea peaked. China has had a bit of a resurgence. Here is a helpful chart, plotted by new confirmed cases over total confirmed cases rather than over time. You can see time via the slider. Here is a video talking about the why of that.
US numbers increase throughout the day rather than as a result of a single daily announcement. Total diagnosed cases already top 100,000, the highest in the world and both the numbers of deaths and those critically ill are rising sharply.
The UK had its highest death total today and the numbers who died exceeded the number reported as critically ill yesterday.
Italy had its highest ever death toll and that despite being in lockdown for 14 days now.
Personally, I see precious little evidence of peaking, more evidence of continued rapid climbing. Particularly in the countries worst affected.
It will be at least two weeks before we see real impact from the lockdown in the U.K.
The effectiveness of lockdowns will of course be measured by what the trends look like in two to three weeks - so far as the UK is concerned. That argument doesn't apply to German and French stats since I think they got more rigorous on lockdown earlier than we did. Lots of new cases in both countries over the last couple of days. Even if that arises as a result of increased testing, it seems likely that the new cases will produce increased numbers of serious critical cases - and therefore more deaths.
The US figures are significantly worse than when I posted just a couple of hours ago. Certainly there are state clusters and the decision to allow Mardi Gras in New Orleans now looks very bad. The US is the new epicentre and looks well on the way to having much worse outcomes than China.
I am seeing roughly 45% of the US cases are coming from New York State. Governor Cuomo is saying he does not expect the apex of Covid 19 in his state for another 21 days. I am betting the same across the US. Assuming we continue to double every three days, we will see close to 8 mil cases. Sad.
US numbers increase throughout the day rather than as a result of a single daily announcement. Total diagnosed cases already top 100,000, the highest in the world and both the numbers of deaths and those critically ill are rising sharply.
The UK had its highest death total today and the numbers who died exceeded the number reported as critically ill yesterday.
Italy had its highest ever death toll and that despite being in lockdown for 14 days now.
Personally, I see precious little evidence of peaking, more evidence of continued rapid climbing. Particularly in the countries worst affected.
It will be at least two weeks before we see real impact from the lockdown in the U.K.
Meanwhile we have no idea exactly how many people have been infected, albeit with mild symptoms. I suspect that many people who know they have mild symptoms are not isolating.
Dr Adam Rutherford the geneticist, who is 45, has nearly died from corona virus complications. He was reporting from isolation on his Twitter account then after a gap:
Hi all. Sorry for the lack of updates. I got full blown pneumonia on top of cv, and it almost killed me. The first antibiotics made me sick, but now I’m on clathromycin and they seem to be working. I didn’t go to hospital but probably should have.
It reminds me of Invasion of the Bodysnatchers, various versions. In the Donald Sutherland one, there's an awful shot of him pointing to someone, who hasn't been contaminated. The other odd thing is, I am sleeping like a log. As they say in therapy, the catastrophe has already happened. My wife said her OCD clients have relaxed.
Great shot, that. I actually have that on the bulletin board in my classroom.
And you should go to youtube and listen closely to the music in that scene.
I know the scene--near the end, and he did that ululation thing that the infested people did, One of the best scenes in the film--though I like the one just after, with the person he pointed at.
stetson, why in the world do you have that pic on your classroom bulletin board?
Dominic Cummings will be running the country, then? Or Rishi? Unless Gove knifes him first.
Will there be a spike in the birth rate in 9 months' time I wonder? Not if people are keeping their distance, I suppose.
Kind of like the big blackout in New York, back in the 60s. AIUI, there was a definite spike in the birth rate. There was even a movie about the blackout: "Where Were You When The Lights Went Out?"
US numbers increase throughout the day rather than as a result of a single daily announcement. Total diagnosed cases already top 100,000, the highest in the world and both the numbers of deaths and those critically ill are rising sharply.
The UK had its highest death total today and the numbers who died exceeded the number reported as critically ill yesterday.
Italy had its highest ever death toll and that despite being in lockdown for 14 days now.
Personally, I see precious little evidence of peaking, more evidence of continued rapid climbing. Particularly in the countries worst affected.
China and South Korea peaked. China has had a bit of a resurgence. Here is a helpful chart, plotted by new confirmed cases over total confirmed cases rather than over time. You can see time via the slider. Here is a video talking about the why of that.
The great unknown is when will the climbing stop. The hope is that social isolation and distancing will do that. This virus seems to be very infectious. Therefore, those who continue to work in the necessary occupations and cannot avoid social interraction are the ones going to be most at risk. And of course social isolation and distancing are going to work as well as people make them work.
We'll have to see whether the peak and the curve fall off mirror the Chinese and South Korean experience. A lot seems to depend on the preparedness of each country. We'll see. Meanwhile, the figures seem set to rise rapidly and in some countries at increasing rates for some time to come.
(Spain had an awful 24 hours and their fragile health service is really struggling).
I have selected Amy Acton, the director of the Ohio Department of Health, as my one person to follow through all this. She doesn't seem to have any particular political or corporate partisanship and she takes her responsibility for the health of Ohioans very seriously. It doesn't hurt that her voice sounds like Mary Steenburgen's at her most sincere.
It's surprising how many people are not paying attention to the 6ft / 2m distancing. Taking my daughter out for a walk yesterday, which we are allowed to do, we were trying to distance and standing clear of people, waiting until people walked through where the paths narrowed before we walked into that path and all that jazz. But it only works if both parties are following the advice.
On another walk earlier this week on my own, I got close to the end of one very narrow path between houses this week, reached just about 10 steps from the end, when a young couple just barged on regardless and there was nowhere to provide 6ft space without backing up 100 yards. I must have given my best Paddington stare because the boy moved back very exaggeratedly to move past me. It wouldn't have hurt them to wait until I came off the path before moving onto it. Because it's me who was in self-isolation having possibly been exposed to the virus. I wasn't casting aspersions at them.
I’ve been telling my mother her walking stick is a social distancing device, just hold it out parallel to the ground in the direction of the approaching covidiot ....
Italy wil have a second peak in the South. Why is the US President surrounded by other people who might be carriers or vice versa at his press conferences? Couldn't he do it on line from the Oval Office?
That kind of makes sense, and if true possibly is a bit reassuring (compared to just being ongoing), at least they'll be fresher hospitals, it shows they are nearing the end, and it's better than all being at once.
Though not as good as when it looked like it was just going down.
And even though it's lousy to hope that (if it's not some stats artifact) it's *just* another round, even that hope may be in vain.
Why is the US President surrounded by other people who might be carriers or vice versa at his press conferences? Couldn't he do it on line from the Oval Office?
I wonder if he hopes he might catch it? If he did, he would trumpet himself as being truly 'The People's President', and one with his suffering, and dying, compatriots.
Or, if he doesn't catch it, it will be proof that he is the deputy Son of God some proclaim him to be (or so I have been told).
Why is the US President surrounded by other people who might be carriers or vice versa at his press conferences? Couldn't he do it on line from the Oval Office?
Because he's a narcissist. He needs to be surrounded by minions. Everything always has to be about him (see, for example, his recent quotes about not sending medical supplies to states whose governors haven't appeared to be sufficiently grateful to him personally).
Yes, Trump reminds me of Canute (Cnut), who demonstrates to his followers, that he cannot control the waves. Trump thinks he can, and thousands will die, to prove it.
Cnut Sweynsson was, for his time, not a particularly Bad King (he reigned 1016-1035 in England). He certainly seems to have been a man of strong character, interpret that how you will.
Sadly, he died at a relatively young age (he was born c990), and the alternative path that The North Sea Empire could have taken, had his heirs not been such useless twerps, is one of history's fascinating might-have-beens.
Trump, OTOH, will hopefully soon be one of history's has-beens...
Was there anything especially ghastly that you wish to highlight as regards India?
One can only sympathise with the incredible pressure being placed on the Indian government, and health services, though they have shown in the past how they can rise to a lesser challenge (remember Bopal?).
FWIW, our neighbouring parish's Vicar is Indian, and, having been on sabbatical, and then on holiday with his parents in Kerala, is now unable to return to the UK. His (English) wife and family miss him, as you can imagine.
Why is the US President surrounded by other people who might be carriers or vice versa at his press conferences? Couldn't he do it on line from the Oval Office?
Because he's a narcissist. He needs to be surrounded by minions. Everything always has to be about him (see, for example, his recent quotes about not sending medical supplies to states whose governors haven't appeared to be sufficiently grateful to him personally).
This. He needs his admirers more than he needs anything else.
Will a reporter ever say something like this directly to trump? Someone needs to.
"Mr. President, this is not about you and how you feel. It is about us. Lead for all, follow the better minds around you or get out of the way. This is not about left and right. It's not about your feelings. It's about being ready. We have no more time."
If ever there was a time when America could do with the leadership of a person with the sense, and integrity, of an Obama, or a Lincoln (and doubtless many other past presidents), this is it.
Instead, what have you got?
Trump.
Where's the projectile vomit emoji when you need it?
Why is the US President surrounded by other people who might be carriers or vice versa at his press conferences? Couldn't he do it on line from the Oval Office?
Because he's a narcissist. He needs to be surrounded by minions. Everything always has to be about him (see, for example, his recent quotes about not sending medical supplies to states whose governors haven't appeared to be sufficiently grateful to him personally).
Apparently that [governor] in Michigan is saying the supply vendors her state has been relying on have been told not to send her any more equipment. Now, in my mind, if this is true this is INDEED an impeachable offense.
In other news, the Government Minister leading today’s UK briefing has repeated the line that keeping deaths in the UK below 20,000 would be “a good result”.
How can that be “good”? It would be 6 times the number of deaths in China, a country which has 20 times the UK’s population.
It also means that at the current UK death rate (around 6% of those tested and confirmed), the current wave of the epidemic would involve over 300,000 cases that are severe enough to be tested, many of whom can expect long term complications. If the more realistic death rate is around 1% (but we are not sure about that yet) - including mild/moderate illness and the asymptomatic - then that would mean a total of around 2,000,000 people infected.
I have to conclude that the government is either being (a) appallingly complacent, or (b) is using - at the worst of times - the political PR trick of trailing a number that’s a multiple of the real figure expected, to make the eventual catastrophe look like a ‘success’.
This is one of the rare occasions where I hope the government is dealing in spin. I would also be delighted to have made a mathematical error somewhere...
Note the pandemic isn't over in China yet. They've managed to beat it back temporarily but easing social restrictions in order to get the economy going will likely cause an increase (ideally not one that overwhelms any of their hospitals again). The number of deaths per day will, we hope, remain low but will accumulate until we have a vaccination, a really good, accessible treatment, or enough people have caught it and become immune enough. This is also assuming that the governments in China (local and/or national) are accurate in reporting figures.
I note the island of St. Helena is still in the prevent stage and may be able to escape. All incomers whether by air or boat have 14 days of self-isolate (yachters expected to self-isolate on their boat and fly the yellow flag). It also severely restricts who can come in by air and no cruise liners are allowed. They won't cut the air link completely since it is the only quick way of bringing in supplies (e.g., test kits for the virus or other medical equipment); however, there are no commercial flights at this time due to the lock down in South Africa. They have one incomer in quarantine who has symptoms but he or she is not ill enough at this time to require in person medical treatment. It doesn't take much to overwhelm an isolated island's medical resources so let's hope islands such as this can stay in the prevent stage. https://www.sainthelena.gov.sh/coronavirus-covid-19-live-qa/
In other news, the Government Minister leading today’s UK briefing has repeated the line that keeping deaths in the UK below 20,000 would be “a good result”.
To put that figure in some perspective, according to this page, France, which has a comparable population to that of the UK, recorded almost 15,000 excess deaths as a result of the heatwave that lasted around ten days in August 2003.
I haven't done any other number-crunching, but I find it very hard to believe that the total number of excess deaths here or in the UK will be less than that figure.
I note the island of St. Helena is still in the prevent stage and may be able to escape.
The Western Isles, and the Orkneys (but not Shetlands) are free here, too. All ferry bookings are cancelled for non residents, last time I looked - I don't know about quarantine. I guess the Scottish government must be thinking carefully about food supply to the islands.
I note the island of St. Helena is still in the prevent stage and may be able to escape.
The Western Isles, and the Orkneys (but not Shetlands) are free here, too. All ferry bookings are cancelled for non residents, last time I looked - I don't know about quarantine. I guess the Scottish government must be thinking carefully about food supply to the islands.
I'm in the inner hebrides and we have presumptive cases. Remember that diagnoses only happen if someone need hospital admission. Our ferries have been cut from 5 a week to 3 (we'd normally have an increase to 7 around this time) and significant travel restrictions. Food supply is relatively easy as the lorry picks up the food in Glasgow the previous day and the driver puts it on the ferry but doesn't travel with it. The likelihood of contamination from the food or the lorry is very low.
--California finally got some respirators from the national stockpile...and they don't work. Grrrrr. A California manufacturer is working on "refurbishing" them. I don't know that T had anything to do with that, or that it was at all on purpose. Maybe no one monitored the condition of the ventilators. But T is often mad at California, and Gov. Gavin Newsom particularly.
Was there anything especially ghastly that you wish to highlight as regards India?
One can only sympathise with the incredible pressure being placed on the Indian government, and health services, though they have shown in the past how they can rise to a lesser challenge (remember Bopal?).
FWIW, our neighbouring parish's Vicar is Indian, and, having been on sabbatical, and then on holiday with his parents in Kerala, is now unable to return to the UK. His (English) wife and family miss him, as you can imagine.
1.3 Bn people. Millions on the move. Walking hundreds of miles home. Nazi police on the street beating people and making them perform obeisance. Even if the virus kills 1% 'directly' (as most cases are mild and unreported, what proportion the virus alone kills we don't know, secondary bacterial pneumonia must be the biggest killer) ten million WILL die. It will kill that again indirectly with this level of social collapse. Including thousands of Brits scattered over a sub-continent. The UK would have to send a fleet of aircraft to large - military - airports to rescue them. And India is the world average.
Pardon my ignorance, but does India still have lots and lots of homeless people? If so, then the virus crisis will be so much worse: they'll be scared (if they even know) and not have anywhere else to go; non-homeless people will be afraid of them and blame them ('cause people scape-goat, especially when afraid); and authorities might feel they need to get the homeless people off the streets, by any means necessary.
Cnut Sweynsson was, for his time, not a particularly Bad King (he reigned 1016-1035 in England). He certainly seems to have been a man of strong character, interpret that how you will.
Sadly, he died at a relatively young age (he was born c990), and the alternative path that The North Sea Empire could have taken, had his heirs not been such useless twerps, is one of history's fascinating might-have-beens.
Yes. He wasn't showing off. He was demonstrating to his sycophants that he was not as great as they kept telling him he ws.
Comments
I have no confidence in my government to do anything but the wrong thing. Fortunately, they have mostly abrogated responsibility to people who actually have a clue.
And now the CMO. So the three men with primary responsibility for handling the virus have the virus.
US numbers increase throughout the day rather than as a result of a single daily announcement. Total diagnosed cases already top 100,000, the highest in the world and both the numbers of deaths and those critically ill are rising sharply.
The UK had its highest death total today and the numbers who died exceeded the number reported as critically ill yesterday.
Italy had its highest ever death toll and that despite being in lockdown for 14 days now.
Personally, I see precious little evidence of peaking, more evidence of continued rapid climbing. Particularly in the countries worst affected.
Here is a helpful chart, plotted by new confirmed cases over total confirmed cases rather than over time. You can see time via the slider.
Here is a video talking about the why of that.
It will be at least two weeks before we see real impact from the lockdown in the U.K.
The US figures are significantly worse than when I posted just a couple of hours ago. Certainly there are state clusters and the decision to allow Mardi Gras in New Orleans now looks very bad. The US is the new epicentre and looks well on the way to having much worse outcomes than China.
Go, London!
Meanwhile we have no idea exactly how many people have been infected, albeit with mild symptoms. I suspect that many people who know they have mild symptoms are not isolating.
With leadership it does not have to 8 or 80 million.
I know the scene--near the end, and he did that ululation thing that the infested people did, One of the best scenes in the film--though I like the one just after, with the person he pointed at.
stetson, why in the world do you have that pic on your classroom bulletin board?
Kind of like the big blackout in New York, back in the 60s. AIUI, there was a definite spike in the birth rate. There was even a movie about the blackout: "Where Were You When The Lights Went Out?"
First class lilBuddha.
We'll have to see whether the peak and the curve fall off mirror the Chinese and South Korean experience. A lot seems to depend on the preparedness of each country. We'll see. Meanwhile, the figures seem set to rise rapidly and in some countries at increasing rates for some time to come.
(Spain had an awful 24 hours and their fragile health service is really struggling).
She says our numbers should peak in mid May.
It's surprising how many people are not paying attention to the 6ft / 2m distancing. Taking my daughter out for a walk yesterday, which we are allowed to do, we were trying to distance and standing clear of people, waiting until people walked through where the paths narrowed before we walked into that path and all that jazz. But it only works if both parties are following the advice.
On another walk earlier this week on my own, I got close to the end of one very narrow path between houses this week, reached just about 10 steps from the end, when a young couple just barged on regardless and there was nowhere to provide 6ft space without backing up 100 yards. I must have given my best Paddington stare because the boy moved back very exaggeratedly to move past me. It wouldn't have hurt them to wait until I came off the path before moving onto it. Because it's me who was in self-isolation having possibly been exposed to the virus. I wasn't casting aspersions at them.
Oops, wrong thread.
Though not as good as when it looked like it was just going down.
And even though it's lousy to hope that (if it's not some stats artifact) it's *just* another round, even that hope may be in vain.
I wonder if he hopes he might catch it? If he did, he would trumpet himself as being truly 'The People's President', and one with his suffering, and dying, compatriots.
Or, if he doesn't catch it, it will be proof that he is the deputy Son of God some proclaim him to be (or so I have been told).
Because he's a narcissist. He needs to be surrounded by minions. Everything always has to be about him (see, for example, his recent quotes about not sending medical supplies to states whose governors haven't appeared to be sufficiently grateful to him personally).
Sadly, he died at a relatively young age (he was born c990), and the alternative path that The North Sea Empire could have taken, had his heirs not been such useless twerps, is one of history's fascinating might-have-beens.
Trump, OTOH, will hopefully soon be one of history's has-beens...
Was there anything especially ghastly that you wish to highlight as regards India?
One can only sympathise with the incredible pressure being placed on the Indian government, and health services, though they have shown in the past how they can rise to a lesser challenge (remember Bopal?).
FWIW, our neighbouring parish's Vicar is Indian, and, having been on sabbatical, and then on holiday with his parents in Kerala, is now unable to return to the UK. His (English) wife and family miss him, as you can imagine.
This. He needs his admirers more than he needs anything else.
https://twitter.com/CuomoPrimeTime/status/1243742646339883008?s=20
If ever there was a time when America could do with the leadership of a person with the sense, and integrity, of an Obama, or a Lincoln (and doubtless many other past presidents), this is it.
Instead, what have you got?
Trump.
Where's the projectile vomit emoji when you need it?
Apparently that [governor] in Michigan is saying the supply vendors her state has been relying on have been told not to send her any more equipment. Now, in my mind, if this is true this is INDEED an impeachable offense.
How can that be “good”? It would be 6 times the number of deaths in China, a country which has 20 times the UK’s population.
It also means that at the current UK death rate (around 6% of those tested and confirmed), the current wave of the epidemic would involve over 300,000 cases that are severe enough to be tested, many of whom can expect long term complications. If the more realistic death rate is around 1% (but we are not sure about that yet) - including mild/moderate illness and the asymptomatic - then that would mean a total of around 2,000,000 people infected.
I have to conclude that the government is either being (a) appallingly complacent, or (b) is using - at the worst of times - the political PR trick of trailing a number that’s a multiple of the real figure expected, to make the eventual catastrophe look like a ‘success’.
This is one of the rare occasions where I hope the government is dealing in spin. I would also be delighted to have made a mathematical error somewhere...
No?
I note the island of St. Helena is still in the prevent stage and may be able to escape. All incomers whether by air or boat have 14 days of self-isolate (yachters expected to self-isolate on their boat and fly the yellow flag). It also severely restricts who can come in by air and no cruise liners are allowed. They won't cut the air link completely since it is the only quick way of bringing in supplies (e.g., test kits for the virus or other medical equipment); however, there are no commercial flights at this time due to the lock down in South Africa. They have one incomer in quarantine who has symptoms but he or she is not ill enough at this time to require in person medical treatment. It doesn't take much to overwhelm an isolated island's medical resources so let's hope islands such as this can stay in the prevent stage. https://www.sainthelena.gov.sh/coronavirus-covid-19-live-qa/
I haven't done any other number-crunching, but I find it very hard to believe that the total number of excess deaths here or in the UK will be less than that figure.
The Western Isles, and the Orkneys (but not Shetlands) are free here, too. All ferry bookings are cancelled for non residents, last time I looked - I don't know about quarantine. I guess the Scottish government must be thinking carefully about food supply to the islands.
I'm in the inner hebrides and we have presumptive cases. Remember that diagnoses only happen if someone need hospital admission. Our ferries have been cut from 5 a week to 3 (we'd normally have an increase to 7 around this time) and significant travel restrictions. Food supply is relatively easy as the lorry picks up the food in Glasgow the previous day and the driver puts it on the ferry but doesn't travel with it. The likelihood of contamination from the food or the lorry is very low.
"Gov. Gretchen Whitmer Says Medical Vendors Told Not To 'Send Stuff' To Michigan" (Yahoo, from HuffPost).
--California finally got some respirators from the national stockpile...and they don't work. Grrrrr. A California manufacturer is working on "refurbishing" them. I don't know that T had anything to do with that, or that it was at all on purpose. Maybe no one monitored the condition of the ventilators. But T is often mad at California, and Gov. Gavin Newsom particularly.
1.3 Bn people. Millions on the move. Walking hundreds of miles home. Nazi police on the street beating people and making them perform obeisance. Even if the virus kills 1% 'directly' (as most cases are mild and unreported, what proportion the virus alone kills we don't know, secondary bacterial pneumonia must be the biggest killer) ten million WILL die. It will kill that again indirectly with this level of social collapse. Including thousands of Brits scattered over a sub-continent. The UK would have to send a fleet of aircraft to large - military - airports to rescue them. And India is the world average.
Pardon my ignorance, but does India still have lots and lots of homeless people? If so, then the virus crisis will be so much worse: they'll be scared (if they even know) and not have anywhere else to go; non-homeless people will be afraid of them and blame them ('cause people scape-goat, especially when afraid); and authorities might feel they need to get the homeless people off the streets, by any means necessary.
Insights from anyone?
Thx.
Yes. He wasn't showing off. He was demonstrating to his sycophants that he was not as great as they kept telling him he ws.